Tyler Cleveland

P Arkansas Travelers

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	37	39	3.43	3.86	30.2%	13.4%	—	K 22.5% · BB 16.1% · FIP 5.02
2025	25	MIX2 levels	41	52	0.87	2.15	25.5%	8.7%	—	K 19.9% · BB 9.8% · FIP 2.66
2026	26	AASEA	46	60	4.83	4.88	19.5%	13.2%	—	K 15.8% · BB 14.6% · FIP 5.55
2027PROJ	27	MLBSEA	1	1	5.43	5.43	16.2%	13.5%	-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	28	MLBSEA	13	14	5.37	5.40	16.8%	13.2%	-0.1
2029PROJ42% MLB	29	MLBSEA	16	17	5.39	5.45	17.1%	13.2%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsJulian Arballo (age 27) · Grant Black (age 27) · Luis Mateo (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.43

FIP5.43

K%16.2%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%2.7%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	25	20	136	566	111	26	10	80%	5.5	14.5%	5.4%	9.1%	2.6%	3.56	3.99	—
2023	23	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	25	20	136	566	111	26	10	80%	5.5	19.6%	4.6%	15.0%	1.8%	3.56	3.00	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	39	172	52	23	5	0%	1.1	22.5%	16.1%	6.4%	3.2%	3.43	5.02	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	39	172	52	23	5	0%	1.1	22.5%	16.1%	6.4%	3.2%	3.43	5.02	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	39	172	52	23	5	0%	1.1	30.2%	13.4%	16.9%	2.9%	3.43	3.86	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	52	196	50	17	0	0%	1.3	19.9%	9.8%	10.1%	0.0%	0.87	2.66	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	52	196	50	17	0	0%	1.3	19.9%	9.8%	10.1%	0.0%	0.87	2.66	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	52	196	50	17	0	0%	1.3	25.5%	8.7%	16.8%	0.0%	0.87	2.15	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	46	0	60	272	53	36	8	0%	1.3	15.8%	14.6%	1.2%	3.5%	4.83	5.55	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	46	0	60	272	53	36	8	0%	1.3	15.8%	14.6%	1.2%	3.5%	4.83	5.55	—
2026	26	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	46	0	60	272	53	36	8	0%	1.3	19.5%	13.2%	6.2%	2.9%	4.83	4.88	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	SEA	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	16.2%	13.5%	2.7%	2.9%	5.43	5.43	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	SEA	47	0	50	209	35	28	6	0%	1.1	16.8%	13.2%	3.6%	3.0%	5.37	5.40	-0.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	SEA	39	0	41	173	30	23	6	0%	1.1	17.1%	13.2%	3.9%	3.2%	5.39	5.45	-0.4
2028	28	MLB CTX	SEA	13	0	14	59	10	8	2	0%	1.1	16.8%	13.2%	3.6%	3.0%	5.37	5.40	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	SEA	16	0	17	72	12	9	2	0%	1.1	17.1%	13.2%	3.9%	3.2%	5.39	5.45	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		29	0	31	131	22	17	4	0%	1.1	17.0%	13.2%	3.8%	3.1%	5.38	5.05	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	142	110	26	0%	1.1	17.0%	13.2%	3.8%	3.1%	5.38	5.05	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		149	20	287	1206	203	117	30	13%	1.9	16.8%	9.7%	7.1%	2.5%	3.32	4.27	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		104	14	200	840	141	82	21	13%	1.9	16.8%	9.7%	7.1%	2.5%	3.32	4.27	-2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAArkansas Travelers · 60 IPFIP 4.75 → 5.55 (+0.80)K% 19.5% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.49%	—	×0.810	15.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.24%	—	×1.100	14.56%
HR / BF /BF	2.94%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.53%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.75 → 5.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Everett AquaSox · 31 IPFIP 1.40 → 2.16 (+0.76)K% 31.6% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.62%	—	×0.770	24.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.150	8.85%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.036	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 1.40 → 2.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAArkansas Travelers · 20 IPFIP 2.99 → 3.39 (+0.39)K% 16.5% → 13.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.46%	—	×0.810	13.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.13%	—	×1.100	11.14%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.800	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.99 → 3.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Everett AquaSox · 37 IPFIP 4.08 → 5.02 (+0.94)K% 29.3% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.27%	—	×0.770	22.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.02%	—	×1.150	16.13%
HR / BF /BF	3.05%	÷1.175	×1.250	3.24%

Result: FIP 4.08 → 5.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AModesto Nuts · 136 IPFIP 3.00 → 3.99 (+0.99)K% 19.6% → 14.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.61%	—	×0.740	14.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.59%	—	×1.180	5.42%
HR / BF /BF	1.77%	÷0.883	×1.300	2.60%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 77).

Result: FIP 3.00 → 3.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Cleveland (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	5.42	16.9%	3.7%	91	-0.01	—	—	—
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	90
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	87
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	86
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	84
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	84
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	83
David Goforth R 2016 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	14.5%	12.8%	2.1%	.333	4.52	13.9%	4.6%	122	-0.16	3.98	256	83
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	83
Kyle McMyne R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	27	SU	4.84	12.5%	12.8%	2.1%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	181	83
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	83
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	82
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	82
Kevin Gryboski R 2002 · 5.02 FIP	28	SU	5.02	13.9%	13.4%	2.5%	.263	3.83	12.0%	2.9%	126	-1.19	3.67	178	82
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	82
Nelson Gonzalez R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	27	SU	5.00	15.3%	13.7%	2.6%	.239	5.79	17.4%	6.7%	96	+0.79	3.42	258	81
Chris Beck R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	27	SU	4.82	17.4%	12.2%	3.0%	.305	5.28	18.1%	9.3%	41	+0.46	3.22	313	81
Brad Schreiber R 2017 · 4.23 FIP	26	SU	4.23	17.3%	12.7%	1.8%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	171	81
Justin Lehr R 2005 · 4.58 FIP	27	SU	4.58	14.9%	10.4%	2.6%	.252	4.23	16.0%	8.0%	16	-0.35	4.23	148	80
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	80
Dustin Antolin R 2017 · 4.35 FIP	27	SW	4.35	16.2%	14.4%	1.4%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	159	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	16.6%	13.4%	1.17	5.40
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*