Brett Kennedy
P
Louisville Bats
Age 31
RHP
6'0" / 200 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION31 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.57
FIP4.78
xFIP6.31
SIERA5.78
K%18.3%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%10.2%
IP31
K†4545
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
FB Velo
p3093.1
Whiff%
p1018.5%
K%
p1010.8%
xwOBA vs
p260.340
CH-1.4
FB-1.5
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | A+ | Lake Elsinore Storm | 28 | 28 | 142 | 604 | 147 | 51 | 11 | 18.6% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 3.55 | 4.28 | +1.9 |
| 2017 | 22 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 26 | 26 | 141 | 588 | 134 | 38 | 16 | 18.5% | 7.1% | 3.7% | 3.70 | 4.48 | +1.5 |
| 2018 | 23 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 22 | 22 | 116 | 490 | 98 | 34 | 12 | 18.0% | 7.2% | 2.6% | 3.65 | 3.89 | +2.1 |
| 2019 | 24 | ROK | AZL Padres 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16.7% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 9.00 | 3.80 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 17 | 14 | 54 | 265 | 54 | 26 | 9 | 15.3% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 8.89 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 25 | 12 | 77 | 329 | 61 | 29 | 8 | 15.1% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 3.87 | 4.62 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 22 | 18 | 97 | 429 | 81 | 38 | 10 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 2.3% | 5.12 | 4.11 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 10 | 10 | 43 | 184 | 34 | 9 | 12 | 16.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.74 | 5.60 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 31 | — | 31 | 132 | 24 | 11 | 4 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 3.3% | 4.57 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 29 | — | 29 | 122 | 22 | 11 | 4 | 18.1% | 8.7% | 3.5% | 4.80 | 4.99 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 151 | 131 | 670 | 2895 | 502 | 246 | 89 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 4.57 | 4.39 | +7.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 39 | 200 | 864 | 150 | 73 | 27 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 4.57 | 4.39 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brett Kennedy (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.78 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 3.3% | — | 4.99 | 18.0% | 9.4% | 29 | +0.21 | — | — | — |
| Luis Angel Daniel R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.80 | 13.4% | 8.9% | 3.1% | .286 | 4.11 | 9.8% | 0.3% | 53 | -0.69 | 4.11 | 156 | 90 |
| Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 90 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.80 | 13.5% | 6.7% | 3.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 149 | 89 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.66 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 3.6% | .270 | 4.93 | 19.3% | 9.7% | 63 | +0.27 | 2.90 | 227 | 88 |
| Chris Leroux R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 87 |
| Francisco Rodriguez R 2027 · 5.14 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.14 | 11.1% | 8.1% | 3.6% | .281 | 4.13 | 12.1% | 4.4% | 139 | -1.01 | 3.26 | 273 | 87 |
| Angel Castro R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 87 |
| Zack Segovia R 2027 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 84 |
| Fernando Villalobos R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.15 | 12.3% | 8.6% | 1.8% | .305 | 4.73 | 10.6% | 2.6% | 55 | +0.58 | 4.15 | 152 | 83 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2025 · 5.08 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.08 | 14.8% | 7.3% | 4.2% | .311 | 4.91 | 16.2% | 9.1% | 64 | -0.17 | 3.93 | 337 | 82 |
| Tyler Herron R 2025 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.17 | 16.4% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .377 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 117 | 82 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2029 · 4.65 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.65 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .347 | 3.78 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.87 | 3.32 | 119 | 82 |
| Miguel Ruiz R 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.44 | 10.6% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.44 | 117 | 82 |
| Alfredo Aceves R 2027 · 5.01 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.01 | 10.0% | 6.2% | 3.6% | .244 | 4.83 | 9.9% | 2.0% | 107 | -0.18 | 4.71 | 160 | 81 |
| Juan Omar Espinoza R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.68 | 8.9% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .346 | 4.95 | 8.4% | -0.8% | 52 | +0.27 | 4.68 | 104 | 81 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.29 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 125 | 81 |
| Elian Leyva R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 81 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.78 | 16.7% | 8.6% | 3.7% | .282 | 3.61 | 20.9% | 15.1% | 136 | -1.17 | 2.95 | 260 | 80 |
| Marco Carrillo R 2025 · 4.94 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.94 | 11.1% | 7.4% | 3.4% | .278 | 6.57 | 9.9% | 0.8% | 104 | +1.63 | 4.94 | 194 | 80 |
| Ivan Zavala R 2025 · 5.18 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.18 | 12.8% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .286 | 5.36 | 12.7% | 5.3% | 61 | +0.18 | 4.31 | 209 | 79 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.