Brett Kennedy

P Louisville Bats

Age 32 RHP 6'0" / 200 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	27	MIX2 levels	25	12	77	3.87	4.00	18.5%	8.8%	—	K 15.1% · BB 9.2% · FIP 4.62
2023	28	MIX2 levels	22	18	97	5.12	3.95	18.9%	8.9%	1.7	K 16.5% · BB 8.1% · FIP 4.06
2024	29	AAACIN	10	10	43	7.74	5.77	18.5%	4.9%	—	K 15.9% · BB 4.4% · FIP 5.86
2025	30	No MLB games played
2026	31	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	32	MLBCIN	1	1	5	4.92	5.00	19.2%	10.9%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	33	MLBCIN	3	3	17	5.06	5.21	18.8%	11.2%	0.0
2029PROJ32% MLB	34	MLBCIN	2	2	12	5.26	5.44	18.3%	11.5%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023

FB Velo30

xwOBA vs26

K%10

CompsZack Segovia (age 32) · Tyler Herron (age 30) · Reinier Roibal (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.92

FIP5.00

K%19.2%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%8.4%

Proj IP54

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3093.1

Whiff%

p1018.5%

p1010.8%

xwOBA vs

p260.340

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	142	604	147	51	11	100%	5.1	18.6%	9.7%	8.8%	2.5%	3.55	4.14	—
2016	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	142	604	147	51	11	100%	5.1	24.3%	8.4%	15.9%	1.8%	3.55	3.11	—
2017	22	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	26	26	141	588	134	38	16	100%	5.4	18.5%	7.1%	11.4%	3.5%	3.70	4.35	—
2017	22	AA RAW	San Antonio Missions	26	26	141	588	134	38	16	100%	5.4	22.8%	6.5%	16.3%	2.7%	3.70	3.48	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	116	490	98	34	12	100%	5.3	18.0%	7.2%	10.9%	2.5%	3.65	3.85	+2.2
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	116	490	98	34	12	100%	5.3	20.0%	6.9%	13.1%	2.4%	3.65	3.63	+2.5
2019	24	ROK MLE	AZL Padres 2	1	1	1	6	1	1	0	100%	1.0	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	9.00	3.80	—
2019	24	ROK RAW	AZL Padres 2	1	1	1	6	1	1	0	100%	1.0	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	9.00	4.10	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	14	54	265	54	26	9	82%	3.2	15.3%	11.2%	4.1%	3.2%	8.89	4.99	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	14	54	265	54	26	9	82%	3.2	20.4%	9.8%	10.6%	3.4%	8.89	4.72	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	12	77	329	61	29	8	48%	3.1	15.1%	9.2%	5.9%	3.0%	3.87	4.62	—
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	12	77	329	61	29	8	48%	3.1	18.5%	8.8%	9.7%	2.4%	3.87	4.00	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	18	97	429	81	38	10	82%	4.4	16.5%	8.1%	8.4%	2.4%	5.12	4.06	+1.5
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	18	97	429	81	38	10	82%	4.4	18.9%	8.9%	10.0%	2.3%	5.12	3.95	+1.7
2024	29	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	10	10	43	184	34	9	12	100%	4.3	15.9%	4.4%	11.5%	6.5%	7.74	5.86	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	10	10	43	184	34	9	12	100%	4.3	15.9%	4.4%	11.5%	6.5%	7.74	5.86	—
2024	29	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	10	10	43	184	34	9	12	100%	4.3	18.5%	4.9%	13.6%	6.5%	7.74	5.77	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			11	8	45	211	27	18	7	73%	4.1	12.8%	8.5%	4.3%	3.3%	6.65	5.14	+0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	CIN	1	1	5	21	4	2	1	100%	5.0	19.2%	10.9%	8.4%	3.2%	4.92	5.00	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	CIN	7	7	45	190	36	21	7	100%	6.4	18.8%	11.2%	7.7%	3.5%	5.06	5.21	+0.1
2029	34	MLB MLE	CIN	6	6	36	152	28	18	6	100%	6.0	18.3%	11.5%	6.8%	3.7%	5.26	5.44	-0.0
2030	35	MLB MLE	CIN	5	5	29	121	21	14	5	100%	5.7	17.5%	11.9%	5.6%	4.0%	5.52	5.72	-0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	CIN	3	3	17	72	14	8	2	100%	5.7	18.8%	11.2%	7.7%	3.5%	5.06	5.21	+0.0
2029	34	MLB CTX	CIN	2	2	12	51	9	6	2	100%	6.0	18.3%	11.5%	6.8%	3.7%	5.26	5.44	-0.0
2030	35	MLB CTX	CIN	1	1	8	34	6	4	1	100%	8.0	17.5%	11.9%	5.6%	4.0%	5.52	5.72	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	14	81	364	55	35	13	82%	4.8	15.1%	9.8%	5.4%	3.5%	6.01	4.96	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		42	35	200	900	136	87	32	82%	4.7	15.1%	9.8%	5.4%	3.5%	6.01	4.96	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		151	131	670	2895	500	240	88	87%	4.4	17.3%	8.3%	9.0%	3.0%	4.57	4.36	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	39	200	864	149	72	26	87%	4.4	17.3%	8.3%	9.0%	3.0%	4.57	4.36	+0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAALouisville Bats · 43 IPFIP 5.74 → 5.86 (+0.12)K% 18.5% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.48%	—	×0.860	15.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.89%	—	×0.900	4.40%
HR / BF /BF	6.52%	÷1.111	×1.100	6.46%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 122).

Result: FIP 5.74 → 5.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALouisville Bats · 79 IPFIP 3.91 → 4.10 (+0.20)K% 20.8% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.81%	—	×0.860	17.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.96%	—	×0.900	8.06%
HR / BF /BF	2.60%	÷1.054	×1.100	2.72%

Result: FIP 3.91 → 4.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 75 IPFIP 3.95 → 4.62 (+0.67)K% 18.6% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.63%	—	×0.810	15.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.39%	—	×1.100	9.22%
HR / BF /BF	2.48%	÷1.004	×1.200	2.97%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 3.95 → 4.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 40 IPFIP 4.83 → 4.99 (+0.16)K% 17.4% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.39%	—	×0.880	15.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.63%	—	×1.050	11.16%
HR / BF /BF	3.38%	÷1.154	×1.100	3.22%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 131).

Result: FIP 4.83 → 4.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL Padres · 10 IPFIP 2.15 → 3.80 (+1.65)K% 35.0% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.00%	—	×0.680	23.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.00%	—	×1.250	6.25%
HR / BF /BF	2.50%	÷1.000	×1.400	3.50%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.15 → 3.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 89 IPFIP 2.95 → 3.26 (+0.31)K% 22.1% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.10%	—	×0.880	19.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.35%	—	×1.050	6.67%
HR / BF /BF	1.66%	÷1.045	×1.100	1.75%

Result: FIP 2.95 → 3.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AASan Antonio Missions · 141 IPFIP 3.49 → 4.35 (+0.86)K% 22.8% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.79%	—	×0.810	18.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.46%	—	×1.100	7.11%
HR / BF /BF	2.72%	÷0.940	×1.200	3.47%

Result: FIP 3.49 → 4.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 A+Lake Elsinore Storm · 114 IPFIP 3.37 → 4.33 (+0.96)K% 22.3% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.34%	—	×0.770	17.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.02%	—	×1.150	10.37%
HR / BF /BF	1.84%	÷0.925	×1.250	2.49%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 3.37 → 4.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brett Kennedy (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	5.42	18.3%	6.8%	110	+0.42	—	—	—
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	83
Tyler Herron R 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	16.4%	8.7%	2.2%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	117	76
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	73
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	73
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	72
Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2016 · 3.88 FIP	32	SP	3.88	12.8%	6.0%	2.0%	.245	4.27	13.6%	7.2%	58	+0.39	2.23	173	72
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	70
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	70
Brandon Beachy R 2019 · 4.19 FIP	32	SP	4.19	17.4%	9.5%	2.5%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	1.97	364	69
Hector Galvan R 2019 · 4.84 FIP	31	SP-	4.84	14.3%	12.2%	2.6%	.357	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	406	68
Patrick Johnson R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	15.7%	9.3%	2.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	248	67
Stan Spencer R 2000 · 4.42 FIP	30	SP	4.42	19.2%	8.7%	3.4%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	119	66
Danny Gutierrez R 2017 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	15.1%	6.1%	2.8%	.362	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	239	66
Bryan Evans R 2019 · 3.89 FIP	32	SP	3.89	18.7%	10.4%	1.9%	.450	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	231	66
Sergio Valenzuela R 2017 · 5.66 FIP	32	SP	5.66	10.6%	6.5%	4.8%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	244	65
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	65
Walter Silva R 2009 · 5.72 FIP	32	SP	5.72	9.1%	12.4%	3.3%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	453	65
Alex Caldera R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	30	SP	4.54	11.9%	11.1%	1.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.54	120	64
Diego Moreno R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	32	SP	4.08	12.4%	6.9%	2.1%	.376	4.75	18.6%	9.2%	30	+0.67	2.29	187	64
Tyler Cloyd R 2019 · 5.21 FIP	32	SP	5.21	18.9%	9.5%	4.6%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	343	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	42	17.3%	10.8%	1.35	5.46
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Dennis Powell ('85-'93, -2 WAR*)	1.7	49	17.6%*	10.1%*	1.18*	5.31*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*