Adrian Ardines — OGILVIE

Adrian Ardines P FCL Astros

Age 19 RHP 6'0" / 186 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION51 act + 60 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113104vR 94

ERA4.11

FIP4.11

K%22.4%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%15.2%

ROS IP60

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 110 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5555

CMD6565

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	13	2	21	111	21	20	2	15%	1.6	12.9%	22.5%	-9.7%	3.2%	8.27	6.60	—
2024	17	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	13	2	21	111	21	20	2	15%	1.6	18.9%	18.0%	0.9%	1.8%	8.27	5.23	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	13	5	42	163	56	7	1	38%	3.3	23.4%	5.4%	18.0%	1.0%	1.91	2.35	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	13	5	42	163	56	7	1	38%	3.3	34.4%	4.3%	30.1%	0.6%	1.91	1.26	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	19	ROK	FCL Astros	11	7	51	202	55	13	4	64%	4.6	18.5%	8.0%	10.5%	2.8%	3.20	4.08	+0.3
ROS	19	MLB	HOU	8	8	60	252	57	18	7	100%	7.5	22.4%	7.3%	15.2%	2.9%	4.11	4.11	+0.3
ROS	19	MLB	HOU	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.4%	7.3%	15.2%	3.0%	4.16	4.16	—
2026 TOT	19	MLB	HOU	—	—	110	454	112	31	11	—	—	24.6%	6.9%	17.7%	2.5%	3.69	4.09	+1.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	HOU	60	0	63	265	61	19	8	0%	1.0	23.1%	7.0%	16.1%	2.9%	4.05	3.99	+0.5
2028	21	MLB	HOU	63	0	66	278	65	19	8	0%	1.0	23.5%	6.8%	16.8%	2.8%	3.96	3.89	+0.6
2029	22	MLB	HOU	66	0	69	292	71	19	8	0%	1.0	24.5%	6.3%	18.1%	2.8%	3.83	3.73	+0.8
2030	23	MLB	HOU	68	0	72	303	76	18	8	0%	1.1	25.2%	6.1%	19.1%	2.7%	3.71	3.62	+1.0
2031	24	MLB	HOU	70	0	74	311	80	18	8	0%	1.1	25.8%	5.9%	19.9%	2.7%	3.60	3.52	+1.1
2032	25	MLB	HOU	71	0	74	315	82	18	8	0%	1.0	26.1%	5.7%	20.4%	2.7%	3.52	3.47	+1.2
2033	26	MLB	HOU	71	0	74	315	83	18	8	0%	1.0	26.3%	5.7%	20.6%	2.7%	3.47	3.44	+1.2
2034	27	MLB	HOU	70	0	73	310	82	18	8	0%	1.0	26.3%	5.8%	20.6%	2.7%	3.48	3.48	+1.2
2027	20	MLB	HOU	30	0	31	131	30	9	4	0%	1.0	23.1%	7.0%	16.1%	2.9%	4.10	4.04	+0.2
2028	21	MLB	HOU	46	0	48	203	48	14	6	0%	1.0	23.5%	6.8%	16.8%	2.9%	4.01	3.94	+0.3
2029	22	MLB	HOU	55	0	58	245	60	16	7	0%	1.1	24.5%	6.3%	18.1%	2.8%	3.88	3.78	+0.5
2030	23	MLB	HOU	62	0	65	274	69	17	8	0%	1.0	25.2%	6.1%	19.1%	2.8%	3.75	3.66	+0.8
2031	24	MLB	HOU	65	0	68	287	74	17	8	0%	1.0	25.8%	5.9%	19.9%	2.8%	3.64	3.56	+0.9
2032	25	MLB	HOU	67	0	70	296	77	17	8	0%	1.0	26.1%	5.7%	20.4%	2.8%	3.56	3.51	+1.0
2033	26	MLB	HOU	68	0	71	300	79	17	8	0%	1.0	26.3%	5.7%	20.6%	2.8%	3.51	3.48	+1.1
2034	27	MLB	HOU	67	0	70	296	78	17	8	0%	1.0	26.3%	5.8%	20.6%	2.8%	3.52	3.52	+1.0
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			457	0	480	2026	513	123	57	0%	1.0	25.3%	6.0%	19.3%	2.8%	3.70	3.27	+12.0
/ 200 IP	—			190	0	200	844	214	51	24	0%	1.1	25.3%	6.0%	19.3%	2.8%	3.70	3.27	+5.0
Career	—			37	14	114	476	90	50	11	38%	3.1	18.9%	10.5%	8.4%	2.2%	3.64	4.07	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—			65	25	200	838	158	88	19	38%	3.1	18.9%	10.5%	8.4%	2.2%	3.64	4.07	+3.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adrian Ardines (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.11	22.4%	7.3%	2.9%	—	3.87	23.7%	17.0%	198	-0.24	—	—	—
Jose Romero R 2026 · 3.20 FIP	19	SW	3.20	21.7%	5.2%	2.3%	.267	4.53	13.3%	3.8%	149	+1.33	3.20	192	85
Breidy Encarnación R 2025 · 3.10 FIP	18	SP-	3.10	21.7%	7.7%	1.6%	.239	5.25	18.1%	3.6%	50	+2.15	3.10	164	84
Angel Jimenez R 2026 · 3.04 FIP	19	SP-	3.04	20.2%	5.5%	1.7%	.257	3.47	21.3%	12.4%	99	+0.43	3.04	194	84
Redinson Gomez R 2026 · 3.24 FIP	19	SW	3.24	18.4%	6.2%	1.7%	.273	4.66	15.8%	-2.1%	26	+1.42	3.24	144	82
David Lorduy R 2026 · 4.19 FIP	19	SP-	4.19	20.4%	7.1%	3.5%	.267	4.41	16.6%	6.9%	155	+0.22	3.33	241	81
Connor Cooke R 2029 · 3.47 FIP	22	SP-	3.47	23.7%	8.4%	2.4%	.350	4.29	24.6%	10.4%	56	+0.82	2.92	103	81
Jerming Rosario R 2026 · 4.83 FIP	19	SW	4.83	21.1%	10.5%	4.0%	.303	4.38	20.9%	5.7%	281	-0.45	3.05	483	80
Simon Mathews R 2028 · 4.09 FIP	21	SW	4.09	17.7%	7.5%	2.8%	.326	4.51	16.0%	5.9%	167	+0.42	4.09	215	80
Tom de Blok R 2028 · 4.22 FIP	21	SW	4.22	17.3%	4.9%	3.6%	.285	4.67	13.0%	3.1%	213	+0.45	4.22	291	80
Adolfo Oviedo R 2026 · 3.98 FIP	19	SP-	3.98	17.2%	8.1%	2.4%	.272	4.74	13.4%	8.0%	90	+0.76	3.79	201	80
Marc Brakeman R 2029 · 3.85 FIP	22	SW	3.85	17.9%	7.1%	2.5%	.319	4.99	18.6%	5.0%	83	+1.14	3.85	156	79
Geno Encina R 2028 · 4.22 FIP	21	SW	4.22	16.5%	6.8%	3.0%	.325	7.60	12.0%	2.3%	76	+3.38	4.22	200	79
Dawil Almonte R 2027 · 3.60 FIP	20	SW	3.60	17.4%	7.8%	1.8%	.271	4.44	14.7%	3.3%	97	+0.84	3.60	138	79
Andrew Sopko R 2027 · 3.90 FIP	20	SP-	3.90	17.4%	4.1%	3.2%	.282	3.85	16.6%	8.8%	353	-0.05	3.61	479	78
Christian Zazueta R 2026 · 4.53 FIP	19	SP-	4.53	20.6%	9.1%	3.7%	.321	3.68	25.3%	18.8%	132	-0.85	3.55	276	78
Scooter Hightower R 2028 · 3.23 FIP	21	SW	3.23	18.7%	4.4%	2.1%	.304	2.89	19.6%	14.6%	68	-0.34	2.89	160	78
Tzu-Chen Sha R 2026 · 4.38 FIP	19	SP-	4.38	16.4%	4.3%	3.9%	.335	5.24	13.2%	5.2%	241	+0.86	4.31	292	78
Edwin Jimenez R 2026 · 4.12 FIP	19	SP-	4.12	19.3%	8.9%	2.8%	.330	4.67	16.5%	8.0%	277	+0.55	4.12	386	78
Miguel Rondon R 2025 · 4.47 FIP	18	SP-	4.47	18.9%	9.4%	3.2%	.361	8.04	18.1%	2.1%	88	+3.57	2.62	179	77
Abdiel Medina R 2026 · 3.69 FIP	19	SW	3.69	16.8%	5.8%	2.3%	.317	5.85	11.9%	0.9%	104	+2.16	3.63	191	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9	70	24.9%	6.2%	1.07	3.73
Sergio Romo ('21)	7	50	26.3%	7.0%	1.20	3.70
Joe Smith ('22)	7	44	22.5%	6.4%	1.08	3.67
Jesse Chavez ('24)	9	82	22.2%	6.9%	1.26	3.94
Nick Wittgren ('23)	8	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Joakim Soria ('21)	7	54	26.1%	7.8%	0.92	3.65
Jake McGee ('22)	8	44	23.3%	6.3%	1.34	4.27