Adrian Ardines — OGILVIE

Adrian Ardines P FCL Astros

Age 19 RHP 6'0" / 186 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.8 · 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION72 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA4.19

FIP4.19

K%22.4%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%14.4%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 77 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$74M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5555

CMD6565

K†5565

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$7M	+$7M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$7M	+$7M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.5	$7M	+$7M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+1.4	$6M	+$5M
2035	Arb-2	$3M	+1.3	$5M	+$4M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$8M		$33M	+$29M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	13	2	21	111	21	20	2	15%	1.6	12.9%	22.5%	-9.7%	2.8%	8.27	6.40	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	13	2	21	111	21	20	2	15%	1.6	12.9%	22.5%	-9.7%	2.8%	8.27	6.40	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	13	2	21	111	21	20	2	15%	1.6	18.9%	18.0%	0.9%	1.8%	8.27	5.23	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	13	5	42	163	56	7	1	38%	3.3	23.4%	5.4%	18.0%	0.9%	1.91	2.31	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	13	5	42	163	56	7	1	38%	3.3	23.4%	5.4%	18.0%	0.9%	1.91	2.31	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	13	5	42	163	56	7	1	38%	3.3	34.4%	4.3%	30.1%	0.6%	1.91	1.26	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	17	13	72	298	84	27	7	76%	4.3	19.7%	11.0%	8.7%	3.2%	3.86	4.60	—
YTD	19	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	17	13	72	298	84	27	7	76%	4.3	19.7%	11.0%	8.7%	3.2%	3.86	4.60	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	HOU	12	8	53	211	56	14	5	67%	4.4	26.5%	6.6%	19.9%	2.4%	3.42	3.00	—
2026	19	A RAW	HOU	5	5	20	87	28	13	2	100%	3.9	32.2%	14.9%	17.2%	2.3%	5.03	3.54	—
ROS	19	MLB MLE	HOU	1	1	5	21	5	2	1	100%	5.0	22.4%	8.0%	14.4%	2.9%	4.19	4.19	+0.0
2026 TOT	19	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	77	319	89	29	8	—	—	27.8%	9.0%	18.8%	2.4%	3.88	4.57	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	74	314	72	24	9	100%	6.2	23.1%	7.5%	15.6%	2.9%	4.11	4.05	+0.8
2028	21	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	78	329	78	23	9	100%	6.5	23.5%	7.1%	16.4%	2.8%	4.01	3.93	+0.9
2029	22	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	82	346	85	23	10	100%	6.3	24.5%	6.6%	17.9%	2.8%	3.87	3.76	+1.1
2030	23	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	85	359	90	22	10	100%	6.5	25.1%	6.2%	18.9%	2.7%	3.74	3.64	+1.3
2031	24	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	87	368	95	22	10	100%	6.2	25.7%	6.0%	19.7%	2.7%	3.62	3.55	+1.4
2032	25	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	88	372	97	22	10	100%	6.3	26.1%	5.9%	20.2%	2.7%	3.54	3.49	+1.5
2033	26	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	88	372	98	22	10	100%	6.3	26.3%	5.8%	20.5%	2.7%	3.50	3.47	+1.6
2034	27	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	87	367	96	22	10	100%	6.2	26.3%	5.9%	20.4%	2.7%	3.50	3.50	+1.5
2035	28	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	84	356	93	22	10	100%	6.5	26.2%	6.1%	20.1%	2.8%	3.55	3.59	+1.3
2036	29	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	80	340	88	21	10	100%	6.2	25.9%	6.3%	19.6%	3.0%	3.65	3.72	+1.2
2037	30	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	76	320	88	19	10	100%	6.3	27.6%	5.8%	21.8%	3.2%	3.64	3.63	+1.2
2038	31	MLB MLE	HOU	11	11	71	298	81	18	10	100%	6.4	27.2%	6.1%	21.0%	3.4%	3.75	3.83	+0.9
2039	32	MLB MLE	HOU	10	10	65	276	74	18	10	100%	6.5	26.7%	6.5%	20.2%	3.6%	3.93	4.05	+0.7
2027	20	MLB CTX	HOU	6	6	37	156	36	12	4	100%	6.2	23.1%	7.5%	15.6%	2.8%	4.07	4.01	+0.4
2028	21	MLB CTX	HOU	9	9	57	241	57	17	7	100%	6.3	23.5%	7.1%	16.4%	2.7%	3.97	3.89	+0.7
2029	22	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	69	291	71	19	8	100%	6.3	24.5%	6.6%	17.9%	2.7%	3.83	3.72	+1.0
2030	23	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	76	321	81	20	8	100%	6.3	25.1%	6.2%	18.9%	2.6%	3.70	3.60	+1.2
2031	24	MLB CTX	HOU	13	13	80	338	87	20	9	100%	6.2	25.7%	6.0%	19.7%	2.6%	3.58	3.51	+1.3
2032	25	MLB CTX	HOU	13	13	82	346	90	20	9	100%	6.3	26.1%	5.9%	20.2%	2.6%	3.50	3.45	+1.4
2033	26	MLB CTX	HOU	13	13	84	355	93	21	9	100%	6.5	26.3%	5.8%	20.5%	2.6%	3.46	3.43	+1.5
2034	27	MLB CTX	HOU	13	13	83	350	92	21	9	100%	6.4	26.3%	5.9%	20.4%	2.6%	3.46	3.46	+1.4
2035	28	MLB CTX	HOU	13	13	80	338	88	21	9	100%	6.2	26.2%	6.1%	20.1%	2.7%	3.51	3.55	+1.3
2036	29	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	76	321	83	20	9	100%	6.3	25.9%	6.3%	19.6%	2.9%	3.61	3.68	+1.1
2037	30	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	72	304	84	18	9	100%	6.5	27.6%	5.8%	21.8%	3.1%	3.59	3.58	+1.1
2038	31	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	67	283	77	17	9	100%	6.1	27.2%	6.1%	21.0%	3.3%	3.70	3.78	+0.9
2039	32	MLB CTX	HOU	10	10	62	262	70	17	9	100%	6.2	26.7%	6.5%	20.2%	3.5%	3.87	3.99	+0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		145	145	925	3907	1010	243	110	100%	6.4	25.9%	6.2%	19.6%	2.8%	3.65	3.25	+19.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		31	31	200	844	218	53	24	100%	6.4	25.9%	6.2%	19.6%	2.8%	3.65	3.25	+4.1
Career	—	MLE		43	20	135	572	111	67	14	47%	3.1	19.4%	11.6%	7.8%	2.5%	3.92	4.30	+10.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	30	200	845	164	98	21	47%	3.1	19.4%	11.6%	7.8%	2.5%	3.92	4.30	+2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adrian Ardines (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.19	22.4%	8.0%	2.9%	—	3.91	23.7%	16.7%	234	-0.28	—	—	—
Breidy Encarnación R 2019 · 3.10 FIP	18	SP-	3.10	21.7%	7.7%	1.6%	.239	5.15	18.1%	3.6%	50	+2.05	3.10	164	86
David Lorduy R 2023 · 4.01 FIP	19	SP-	4.01	20.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.267	4.79	17.4%	7.1%	184	+0.78	3.38	269	85
Angel Jimenez R 2022 · 3.24 FIP	19	SP-	3.24	20.2%	5.5%	2.1%	.257	3.41	21.3%	12.4%	99	+0.17	3.24	223	85
Edwin Jimenez R 2021 · 4.03 FIP	19	SP-	4.03	19.3%	8.9%	2.6%	.330	4.79	16.5%	8.0%	277	+0.76	4.03	406	83
Connor Cooke R 2022 · 3.35 FIP	22	SP-	3.35	23.7%	8.4%	2.2%	.350	4.13	24.0%	11.4%	56	+0.78	2.93	103	83
Dualvert Gutierrez R 2021 · 3.22 FIP	20	SP-	3.22	23.5%	9.1%	1.7%	.352	4.29	15.9%	2.2%	78	+1.07	3.22	130	82
Javi Rivera R 2022 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP-	3.78	22.3%	7.9%	2.9%	.259	3.72	18.6%	9.0%	93	-0.06	2.81	274	80
Miguel Rondon R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	18	SP-	4.47	18.9%	9.4%	3.2%	.361	7.30	18.1%	2.1%	88	+2.83	2.62	179	80
Jerming Rosario R 2021 · 4.97 FIP	19	SW	4.97	21.1%	10.5%	4.2%	.303	4.43	20.9%	5.7%	281	-0.54	3.05	505	80
Jose Acuna R 2022 · 3.33 FIP	19	SP-	3.33	23.1%	10.3%	1.6%	.242	4.95	18.2%	6.6%	207	+1.62	3.33	397	80
Logan Hofmann R 2021 · 4.57 FIP	21	SP-	4.57	22.1%	11.3%	3.5%	.239	6.80	9.7%	-12.0%	47	+2.23	4.57	129	80
Yoelvin Silven R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	19	SP-	3.94	17.7%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	4.89	17.9%	12.6%	88	+0.95	3.94	254	80
Porter Hodge R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	20	SP-	4.20	19.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.336	3.40	24.2%	10.6%	249	-0.80	2.97	349	80
Sean Paul Liñan R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	18	SP-	4.05	17.7%	8.3%	2.5%	.324	4.30	22.1%	10.2%	210	+0.25	3.29	272	80
Tom de Blok R 2017 · 3.87 FIP	21	SW	3.87	17.3%	4.9%	2.9%	.285	4.70	13.0%	3.1%	213	+0.83	3.87	291	79
Cristian Javier R 2016 · 3.40 FIP	19	SW	3.40	22.3%	11.2%	1.4%	.278	3.75	26.6%	13.2%	250	+0.35	2.69	954	79
Luis Arejula R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	19	SP	3.52	21.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.318	4.46	15.7%	3.5%	71	+0.94	3.52	115	79
Jose Romero R 2023 · 3.24 FIP	19	SW	3.24	21.7%	5.2%	2.4%	.267	4.37	13.6%	5.6%	193	+1.13	3.24	235	78
Brandon Bailey R 2017 · 3.54 FIP	22	SP-	3.54	24.6%	9.9%	2.3%	.290	4.44	21.2%	9.6%	215	+0.90	3.54	306	78
Simon Mathews R 2017 · 4.09 FIP	21	SW	4.09	17.7%	7.5%	2.8%	.326	4.42	16.0%	5.9%	167	+0.33	4.09	215	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.5	79	25.5%	6.4%	1.12	3.74
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59