Adrian Ardines
P
DSL Astros Blue
+0.3
WAR
Age 19
RHP
6'0" / 186 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 0.5 · 2030
ERA4.31
FIP4.31
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.1%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.8%
IP30
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2030
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Astros Orange | 13 | 2 | 21 | 111 | 21 | 20 | 2 | 12.9% | 22.5% | 3.1% | 8.27 | 6.57 | -0.4 |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | 13 | 5 | 42 | 163 | 56 | 7 | 1 | 23.4% | 5.4% | 1.0% | 1.91 | 2.34 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | MLB | HOU | 30 | — | 30 | 126 | 29 | 12 | 4 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.31 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | HOU | 31 | — | 31 | 132 | 31 | 12 | 4 | 23.5% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 4.20 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB | HOU | 33 | — | 33 | 139 | 33 | 12 | 4 | 23.9% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.16 | 4.10 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB | HOU | 34 | — | 34 | 146 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 24.8% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.04 | 3.95 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB | HOU | 36 | — | 36 | 151 | 38 | 12 | 4 | 25.4% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 3.92 | 3.83 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 40 | 12 | 4 | 26.0% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 3.81 | 3.74 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 41 | 12 | 4 | 26.4% | 7.6% | 2.7% | 3.74 | 3.69 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 42 | 12 | 4 | 26.6% | 7.6% | 2.7% | 3.70 | 3.67 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 37 | — | 37 | 156 | 41 | 12 | 4 | 26.6% | 7.6% | 2.7% | 3.69 | 3.68 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 41 | 12 | 4 | 26.5% | 7.7% | 2.7% | 3.70 | 3.70 | +0.5 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 36 | — | 36 | 150 | 40 | 12 | 4 | 26.4% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 3.73 | 3.75 | +0.5 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 38 | 11 | 4 | 26.2% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 3.78 | 3.81 | +0.4 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 33 | — | 33 | 140 | 36 | 11 | 4 | 26.0% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 3.84 | 3.88 | +0.4 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 32 | — | 32 | 135 | 35 | 11 | 4 | 25.7% | 8.1% | 3.0% | 3.92 | 3.97 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 26 | 7 | 63 | 274 | 52 | 34 | 5 | 19.1% | 12.3% | 1.8% | 4.00 | 4.06 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 83 | 22 | 200 | 870 | 165 | 108 | 16 | 19.1% | 12.3% | 1.8% | 4.00 | 4.06 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Adrian Ardines (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.31 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.9% | — | 4.08 | 24.1% | 15.5% | 99 | -0.23 | — | — | — |
| Luis Arejula R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.49 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .318 | 4.43 | 15.7% | 3.5% | 71 | +0.94 | 3.49 | 115 | 89 |
| Andrew Hoffmann R 2028 · 3.15 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.15 | 23.6% | 8.1% | 1.8% | .275 | 4.89 | 19.0% | 8.7% | 311 | +1.74 | 3.15 | 395 | 87 |
| Brandon White R 2028 · 3.14 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.14 | 25.9% | 7.9% | 2.2% | .294 | 3.52 | 17.3% | 8.4% | 166 | +0.38 | 3.14 | 221 | 87 |
| Osiris German R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.26 | 20.6% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .346 | 3.14 | 26.3% | 15.5% | 59 | -1.12 | 3.11 | 187 | 86 |
| Jose Romero R 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.20 | 21.7% | 5.2% | 2.3% | .267 | 4.34 | 13.7% | 4.3% | 87 | +1.14 | 3.20 | 129 | 86 |
| Osiel Rodriguez R 2027 · 3.32 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.32 | 19.6% | 6.6% | 1.9% | .306 | 5.30 | 22.3% | 7.4% | 92 | +1.98 | 3.32 | 124 | 85 |
| Jose Montero R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.74 | 20.8% | 7.9% | 2.5% | .377 | 4.02 | 15.8% | 4.6% | 234 | +0.28 | 3.74 | 273 | 85 |
| Matt Walker R 2027 · 3.21 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.21 | 24.8% | 10.3% | 1.7% | .326 | 3.75 | 19.1% | 9.8% | 178 | +0.54 | 2.42 | 211 | 85 |
| Addison Russ R 2029 · 3.55 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.55 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .324 | 3.08 | 25.6% | 17.5% | 121 | -0.47 | 3.07 | 194 | 85 |
| Dayeison Arias R 2027 · 2.93 FIP | 20 | SU | 2.93 | 21.3% | 7.6% | 1.2% | .296 | 2.93 | 28.2% | 19.9% | 48 | +0.00 | 2.93 | 204 | 85 |
| Breidy Encarnación R 2025 · 3.10 FIP | 18 | SU | 3.10 | 21.7% | 7.7% | 1.6% | .239 | 5.24 | 18.1% | 3.6% | 50 | +2.14 | 3.10 | 164 | 84 |
| Kyle Glogoski R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.46 | 19.9% | 8.5% | 1.7% | .277 | 3.93 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 93 | +0.47 | 3.32 | 206 | 84 |
| Danny Dopico R 2028 · 3.87 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.87 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .333 | 3.88 | 22.8% | 8.1% | 173 | +0.01 | 3.00 | 318 | 84 |
| Jeff Bain R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.94 | 19.7% | 6.7% | 3.0% | .339 | 4.24 | 19.1% | 10.7% | 274 | +0.30 | 3.35 | 475 | 84 |
| Angel Jimenez R 2026 · 3.08 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.08 | 20.2% | 5.5% | 1.8% | .257 | 3.39 | 21.3% | 12.4% | 99 | +0.31 | 3.08 | 139 | 84 |
| Sam Delaplane R 2029 · 3.18 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.18 | 24.6% | 7.7% | 2.1% | .342 | 2.87 | 32.7% | 23.4% | 128 | -0.31 | 2.58 | 194 | 84 |
| Jorge Marcheco R 2026 · 3.12 FIP | 19 | SW | 3.12 | 25.0% | 7.2% | 2.2% | .336 | 4.90 | 17.7% | 9.9% | 280 | +1.78 | 3.12 | 331 | 84 |
| Jimmy Joyce R 2029 · 3.78 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.78 | 25.0% | 9.0% | 3.0% | .341 | 4.02 | 20.4% | 9.7% | 242 | +0.24 | 3.40 | 259 | 84 |
| Scott Williams R 2028 · 3.36 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.36 | 22.0% | 8.6% | 1.9% | .238 | 3.68 | 19.3% | 10.5% | 76 | +0.32 | 2.89 | 119 | 84 |
| Jonathan Stiever R 2028 · 4.39 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.39 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 3.6% | .308 | 4.29 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 219 | -0.10 | 4.28 | 247 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2032
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2031 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.5 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.5 | $3M | +$1M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2037 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $10M | +$6M | ||