Alessandro Ercolani

P Altoona Curve

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs AA peak 0.4 · 2030

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	A+PIT	24	9	77	3.29	3.01	29.7%	8.0%	—	K 22.9% · BB 9.2% · FIP 3.92
2025	21	AAPIT	25	21	100	4.04	4.47	15.7%	9.0%	—	K 12.7% · BB 9.9% · FIP 5.33
2026	22	MIX2 levels	18	0	25	7.56	6.10	18.8%	15.4%	—	K 13.8% · BB 17.6% · FIP 7.46
2027PROJ	23	MLBPIT	1	0	1	5.96	5.96	12.1%	12.9%	-0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	24	MLBPIT	28	0	29	5.67	5.59	14.5%	11.9%	-0.3
2029PROJ67% MLB	25	MLBPIT	38	0	40	5.45	5.37	16.0%	11.3%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control50Command35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsWirkin Estevez (age 24) · Seth McClung (age 22) · Chance Huff (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146138vR 130

ERA5.96

FIP5.96

K%12.1%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%-0.8%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL5050

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates Gold	10	0	18	82	20	7	1	0%	1.8	16.6%	10.7%	5.9%	1.8%	5.40	4.04	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates Gold	10	0	18	82	20	7	1	0%	1.8	24.4%	8.5%	15.9%	1.2%	5.40	2.77	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	10	8	30	129	39	20	0	80%	3.0	20.6%	19.4%	1.2%	0.0%	1.19	3.82	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates	10	8	30	129	39	20	0	80%	3.0	30.2%	15.5%	14.7%	0.0%	1.19	2.51	—
2023	19	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	17	15	65	275	66	31	8	88%	3.8	17.8%	13.3%	4.5%	3.9%	4.43	5.42	—
2023	19	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	17	15	65	275	66	31	8	88%	3.8	24.0%	11.3%	12.7%	2.9%	4.43	4.10	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	24	9	77	313	93	25	8	38%	3.2	22.9%	9.2%	13.7%	2.9%	3.29	3.92	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	24	9	77	313	93	25	8	38%	3.2	22.9%	9.2%	13.7%	2.9%	3.29	3.92	—
2024	20	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	24	9	77	313	93	25	8	38%	3.2	29.7%	8.0%	21.7%	2.6%	3.29	3.01	—
2025	21	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	25	21	100	434	68	39	12	84%	4.0	12.7%	9.9%	2.8%	3.7%	4.04	5.33	—
2025	21	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	25	21	100	434	68	39	12	84%	4.0	12.7%	9.9%	2.8%	3.7%	4.04	5.33	—
2025	21	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	25	21	100	434	68	39	12	84%	4.0	15.7%	9.0%	6.7%	2.8%	4.04	4.47	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	25	117	22	18	5	0%	1.4	13.8%	17.6%	-3.8%	6.0%	7.56	7.46	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	25	117	22	18	5	0%	1.4	13.8%	17.6%	-3.8%	6.0%	7.56	7.46	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	0	25	117	22	18	5	0%	1.4	18.8%	15.4%	3.4%	4.3%	7.56	6.10	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	PIT	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	12.1%	12.9%	-0.8%	3.4%	5.96	5.96	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	PIT	63	0	66	280	41	33	9	0%	1.1	14.5%	11.9%	2.6%	3.3%	5.67	5.59	-0.8
2029	25	MLB MLE	PIT	57	0	60	252	40	28	8	0%	1.0	16.0%	11.3%	4.7%	3.3%	5.45	5.37	-0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	PIT	55	0	58	245	41	27	8	0%	1.1	16.8%	11.1%	5.7%	3.3%	5.32	5.26	-0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	PIT	54	0	56	237	40	26	8	0%	1.0	16.9%	11.1%	5.8%	3.3%	5.29	5.28	-0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	PIT	51	0	54	226	38	25	8	0%	1.0	16.8%	11.2%	5.6%	3.4%	5.33	5.36	-0.5
2033	29	MLB MLE	PIT	48	0	50	211	35	24	8	0%	1.0	16.5%	11.4%	5.1%	3.6%	5.43	5.49	-0.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	PIT	44	0	46	193	31	23	7	0%	1.0	16.2%	11.7%	4.4%	3.8%	5.57	5.67	-0.6
2028	24	MLB CTX	PIT	28	0	29	122	18	15	4	0%	1.0	14.5%	11.9%	2.6%	3.3%	5.67	5.59	-0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	PIT	38	0	40	169	27	19	6	0%	1.1	16.0%	11.3%	4.7%	3.3%	5.45	5.37	-0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	PIT	44	0	46	194	33	22	6	0%	1.0	16.8%	11.1%	5.7%	3.3%	5.32	5.26	-0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	PIT	46	0	48	203	34	22	7	0%	1.0	16.9%	11.1%	5.8%	3.3%	5.29	5.28	-0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	PIT	46	0	48	203	34	23	7	0%	1.0	16.8%	11.2%	5.6%	3.4%	5.33	5.36	-0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	PIT	43	0	45	190	31	22	7	0%	1.0	16.5%	11.4%	5.1%	3.6%	5.43	5.49	-0.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	PIT	40	0	42	177	29	21	7	0%	1.1	16.2%	11.7%	4.4%	3.8%	5.57	5.67	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		284	0	298	1260	206	143	43	0%	1.1	16.4%	11.4%	5.0%	3.4%	5.42	5.04	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	138	96	29	0%	1.0	16.4%	11.4%	5.0%	3.4%	5.42	5.04	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		104	53	316	1350	232	163	44	51%	3.0	17.2%	12.0%	5.1%	3.3%	4.02	4.98	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	34	200	855	147	103	28	51%	3.0	17.2%	12.0%	5.1%	3.3%	4.02	4.98	-0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAltoona Curve · 21 IPFIP 6.44 → 7.46 (+1.02)K% 17.0% → 13.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.00%	—	×0.810	13.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.00%	—	×1.100	17.60%
HR / BF /BF	5.00%	÷1.000	×1.200	6.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.44 → 7.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAltoona Curve · 100 IPFIP 4.43 → 5.33 (+0.89)K% 15.7% → 12.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.67%	—	×0.810	12.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.99%	—	×1.100	9.88%
HR / BF /BF	2.76%	÷0.891	×1.200	3.73%

Result: FIP 4.43 → 5.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 77 IPFIP 3.01 → 3.92 (+0.91)K% 29.7% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.71%	—	×0.770	22.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.99%	—	×1.150	9.19%
HR / BF /BF	2.56%	÷1.106	×1.250	2.89%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 121).

Result: FIP 3.01 → 3.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ABradenton Marauders · 65 IPFIP 4.10 → 5.42 (+1.33)K% 24.0% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.00%	—	×0.740	17.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.27%	—	×1.180	13.30%
HR / BF /BF	2.91%	÷0.971	×1.300	3.90%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 4.10 → 5.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Pirates · 30 IPFIP 2.51 → 3.82 (+1.31)K% 30.2% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.23%	—	×0.680	20.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.50%	—	×1.250	19.38%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.977	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 2.51 → 3.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKFCL Pirates Gold · 18 IPFIP 2.79 → 4.04 (+1.25)K% 24.4% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.39%	—	×0.680	16.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.54%	—	×1.250	10.67%
HR / BF /BF	1.22%	÷0.946	×1.400	1.80%

Result: FIP 2.79 → 4.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alessandro Ercolani (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.96	12.1%	12.9%	3.4%	—	5.41	15.7%	4.3%	184	-0.55	—	—	—
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	91
Seth McClung R 2003 · 5.63 FIP	22	SW	5.63	15.0%	14.4%	3.6%	.241	5.29	15.3%	2.8%	212	-0.34	2.52	430	86
Chance Huff R 2023 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	11.8%	11.4%	3.7%	.312	5.08	15.7%	0.2%	155	-0.49	4.31	238	85
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	85
Jordan Mikel R 2022 · 6.04 FIP	23	SW	6.04	12.8%	11.6%	4.7%	.229	3.65	20.1%	11.3%	115	-2.39	3.04	195	84
LJ Brewster R 2017 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	9.4%	11.0%	2.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	143	83
Zach Mort R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	22	SW	5.01	10.7%	12.3%	2.3%	.240	5.35	17.0%	8.8%	176	+0.34	4.95	237	82
Jheyson Caraballo R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	21	SW	5.25	11.9%	10.6%	3.3%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	101	81
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	81
Dane Myers R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	23	SW	5.32	12.2%	11.5%	3.3%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.26	125	80
Jorge Sosa R 2002 · 5.77 FIP	25	SW	5.77	11.1%	12.4%	3.7%	.228	4.55	15.7%	5.5%	362	-1.22	4.06	773	79
Oscar Verdugo R 2015 · 6.33 FIP	25	SP-	6.33	10.5%	13.9%	4.3%	.241	5.78	10.8%	-1.8%	74	-0.55	5.01	144	79
Mitchell Traver R 2017 · 5.56 FIP	23	SP-	5.56	11.9%	9.7%	4.1%	.392	5.21	14.3%	3.7%	82	-0.35	5.21	104	79
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	78
Tom Reisinger R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	23	SW	5.44	12.1%	14.6%	2.8%	.381	6.49	10.3%	-5.6%	47	+1.05	5.44	110	78
Tyler Peyton R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	23	SW	5.25	11.1%	10.5%	3.2%	.298	4.44	12.8%	1.6%	115	-0.81	3.86	183	78
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2021 · 4.98 FIP	23	SP-	4.98	12.7%	9.1%	3.3%	.348	3.92	16.5%	8.0%	135	-1.06	3.30	218	77
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	77
Tanner Dodson R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SW	5.04	13.6%	10.8%	3.1%	.433	4.48	17.7%	2.8%	91	-0.56	3.87	277	77
Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	15.6%	9.5%	3.4%	.354	3.77	20.2%	10.8%	111	-1.07	3.73	186	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	55	15.7%	11.6%	1.32	5.50
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Lance Cormier ('11)	2.3	67	13.0%	10.7%	1.25	5.07
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*