Alessandro Ercolani
P
Altoona Curve
+0.0
WAR
Age 22
RHP
6'2" / 185 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.6 · 2030
ERA4.94
FIP4.94
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.0%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%8.4%
IP100
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.6peak
2030
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | FCL Pirates Gold | 10 | 0 | 18 | 82 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 16.6% | 10.7% | 1.9% | 5.40 | 4.11 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | FCL Pirates | 10 | 8 | 30 | 129 | 39 | 20 | 0 | 20.6% | 19.4% | 0.0% | 1.19 | 3.82 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 19 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 17 | 15 | 65 | 275 | 66 | 31 | 8 | 17.8% | 13.3% | 3.9% | 4.43 | 5.41 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 24 | 9 | 77 | 313 | 93 | 25 | 8 | 22.9% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 3.29 | 3.89 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 21 | AA | Altoona Curve | 25 | 21 | 100 | 434 | 68 | 39 | 12 | 12.7% | 9.9% | 3.6% | 4.04 | 5.28 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | MLB | PIT | 18 | 18 | 100 | 423 | 76 | 41 | 14 | 18.0% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.94 | 4.94 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | PIT | 23 | 23 | 124 | 524 | 103 | 47 | 16 | 19.6% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.76 | 4.69 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | PIT | 26 | 26 | 143 | 605 | 124 | 52 | 19 | 20.5% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.61 | 4.54 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | PIT | 29 | 29 | 157 | 663 | 140 | 56 | 20 | 21.1% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 4.51 | 4.46 | +1.5 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 30 | 30 | 164 | 692 | 147 | 58 | 21 | 21.3% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.43 | +1.6 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 30 | 30 | 167 | 704 | 150 | 59 | 22 | 21.3% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.44 | +1.6 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 30 | 30 | 166 | 702 | 149 | 59 | 22 | 21.2% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.47 | +1.6 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | PIT | 30 | 30 | 163 | 687 | 145 | 58 | 22 | 21.1% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.51 | +1.5 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | PIT | 29 | 29 | 158 | 666 | 139 | 57 | 22 | 20.9% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.58 | +1.3 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | PIT | 28 | 28 | 152 | 643 | 133 | 56 | 21 | 20.7% | 8.7% | 3.3% | 4.61 | 4.65 | +1.1 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 27 | 27 | 146 | 617 | 126 | 55 | 21 | 20.4% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 4.69 | 4.74 | +0.9 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 25 | 25 | 140 | 589 | 118 | 53 | 20 | 20.1% | 9.1% | 3.5% | 4.78 | 4.83 | +0.7 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 24 | 24 | 132 | 559 | 110 | 52 | 20 | 19.8% | 9.3% | 3.6% | 4.88 | 4.94 | +0.5 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | PIT | 23 | 23 | 125 | 527 | 102 | 50 | 19 | 19.4% | 9.5% | 3.7% | 4.99 | 5.07 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 86 | 53 | 291 | 1233 | 216 | 142 | 37 | 17.5% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 3.72 | 4.73 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 59 | 36 | 200 | 848 | 149 | 98 | 25 | 17.5% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 3.72 | 4.73 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alessandro Ercolani (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.94 | 18.0% | 9.6% | 3.2% | — | 4.55 | 20.5% | 11.8% | 424 | -0.39 | — | — | — |
| Chris McElvain R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.78 | 15.8% | 11.6% | 2.8% | .275 | 4.29 | 16.7% | 6.6% | 122 | -0.49 | 4.06 | 218 | 95 |
| Jake Peppers R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.10 | 15.3% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .293 | 4.80 | 15.7% | 0.5% | 63 | -0.30 | 4.80 | 160 | 95 |
| David Palladino R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.93 | 14.4% | 11.8% | 2.8% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.93 | 122 | 92 |
| Wil Crowe R 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.65 | 15.0% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .278 | 4.65 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 266 | +0.00 | 4.00 | 518 | 92 |
| Riley Thompson R 2027 · 4.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .288 | 5.32 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.66 | 4.63 | 340 | 92 |
| Will Rudy R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.79 | 15.2% | 9.2% | 3.3% | .299 | 5.29 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 113 | +0.50 | 4.79 | 194 | 92 |
| Devereaux Harrison R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.96 | 17.6% | 11.3% | 3.5% | .252 | 4.82 | 17.2% | 4.7% | 230 | -0.14 | 4.73 | 324 | 91 |
| Jackson Wentworth R 2026 · 4.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.95 | 16.7% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.95 | 124 | 91 |
| Jeff Thompson R 2027 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.51 | 15.2% | 10.9% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.40 | 15.8% | 1.0% | 202 | -0.11 | 3.67 | 321 | 91 |
| Houston Roth R 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .263 | 4.85 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 228 | +0.23 | 3.77 | 350 | 91 |
| Adam Hill R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.99 | 15.6% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .297 | 6.14 | 19.6% | 8.9% | 91 | +1.15 | 4.99 | 213 | 91 |
| Johnathan Harmon R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.29 | 17.8% | 10.2% | 2.5% | .293 | 3.81 | 16.1% | 8.1% | 69 | -0.48 | 3.51 | 157 | 91 |
| Blaine Knight R 2027 · 4.60 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.60 | 14.1% | 9.8% | 2.6% | .263 | 4.65 | 16.2% | 6.6% | 159 | +0.05 | 4.35 | 269 | 91 |
| Brad Bass R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.62 | 13.4% | 10.1% | 2.5% | .297 | 4.36 | 18.0% | 10.1% | 129 | -0.26 | 4.07 | 247 | 90 |
| Carson LaRue R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.87 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 3.5% | .281 | 5.17 | 16.0% | 6.7% | 124 | +0.30 | 3.83 | 360 | 90 |
| Travis Lakins R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.67 | 14.6% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .349 | 3.82 | 18.4% | 7.5% | 191 | -0.85 | 3.21 | 374 | 90 |
| Shelby Lackey R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.45 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 2.9% | .323 | 3.96 | 20.6% | 5.7% | 65 | -0.49 | 2.91 | 175 | 90 |
| Joe Nahas R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.15 | 15.2% | 12.3% | 3.2% | .270 | 4.69 | 16.6% | 5.9% | 149 | -0.46 | 4.30 | 328 | 90 |
| Sam Carlson R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.29 | 17.9% | 11.2% | 2.3% | .334 | 3.73 | 19.9% | 9.1% | 153 | -0.56 | 3.20 | 313 | 90 |
| Josh Bostick R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.71 | 19.3% | 11.2% | 3.3% | .304 | 5.41 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 119 | +0.70 | 4.71 | 226 | 89 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.5 | $13M | +$12M |
| 2030 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +1.6 | $14M | +$14M |
| 2031 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +1.6 | $15M | +$14M |
| 2032 | Arb-1 | $2M | +1.6 | $15M | +$13M |
| 2033 | Arb-2 | $3M | +1.4 | $14M | +$11M |
| 2034 | Arb-3 | $3M | +1.3 | $13M | +$10M |
| Totals | $11M | $85M | +$74M | ||