Alessandro Ercolani
P
Altoona Curve
Age 22
RHP
6'2" / 185 lbs
AA
peak 0.8 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION25 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146137vR 128
ERA5.68
FIP5.68
K%12.7%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%1.5%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 95 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | FCL Pirates Gold | 10 | 0 | 18 | 82 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.8 | 16.6% | 10.7% | 5.9% | 1.9% | 5.40 | 4.10 | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | FCL Pirates Gold | 10 | 0 | 18 | 82 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.8 | 24.4% | 8.5% | 15.9% | 1.2% | 5.40 | 2.77 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | FCL Pirates | 10 | 8 | 30 | 129 | 39 | 20 | 0 | 80% | 3.0 | 20.6% | 19.4% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 1.19 | 3.82 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | FCL Pirates | 10 | 8 | 30 | 129 | 39 | 20 | 0 | 80% | 3.0 | 30.2% | 15.5% | 14.7% | 0.0% | 1.19 | 2.51 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 17 | 15 | 65 | 275 | 66 | 31 | 8 | 88% | 3.8 | 17.8% | 13.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.43 | 5.49 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 17 | 15 | 65 | 275 | 66 | 31 | 8 | 88% | 3.8 | 24.0% | 11.3% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.10 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 24 | 9 | 77 | 313 | 93 | 25 | 8 | 38% | 3.2 | 22.9% | 9.2% | 13.7% | 2.6% | 3.29 | 3.78 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 24 | 9 | 77 | 313 | 93 | 25 | 8 | 38% | 3.2 | 29.7% | 8.0% | 21.7% | 2.6% | 3.29 | 3.01 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AA | Altoona Curve | 25 | 21 | 100 | 434 | 68 | 39 | 12 | 84% | 4.0 | 12.7% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.04 | 5.61 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AA | Altoona Curve | 25 | 21 | 100 | 434 | 68 | 39 | 12 | 84% | 4.0 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 4.04 | 4.47 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | AA | Altoona Curve | 18 | 0 | 25 | 117 | 22 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 13.8% | 17.6% | -3.8% | 6.0% | 7.56 | 7.46 | -0.9 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | PIT | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 37 | 33 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 12.7% | 11.1% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 5.68 | 5.68 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | PIT | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 12.7% | 11.1% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 5.68 | 5.68 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 95 | 413 | 59 | 51 | 15 | — | — | 14.4% | 12.3% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 6.17 | 6.15 | -0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 12.7% | 11.1% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 5.68 | 5.30 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | PIT | 69 | 0 | 73 | 307 | 47 | 33 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.2% | 10.6% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 5.43 | 5.35 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | PIT | 71 | 0 | 75 | 315 | 53 | 32 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.8% | 10.3% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 5.23 | 5.15 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | PIT | 72 | 0 | 76 | 319 | 56 | 32 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.6% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 5.10 | 5.04 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 72 | 0 | 76 | 319 | 57 | 32 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 5.03 | 5.00 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 71 | 0 | 74 | 314 | 57 | 32 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 5.03 | 5.03 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 69 | 0 | 72 | 305 | 55 | 31 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.9% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 3.4% | 5.08 | 5.12 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | PIT | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 23 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.2% | 10.6% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 5.43 | 5.35 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | PIT | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 37 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.8% | 10.3% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 5.23 | 5.15 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | PIT | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 45 | 26 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.6% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 5.10 | 5.04 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 63 | 0 | 66 | 279 | 50 | 28 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 5.03 | 5.00 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 51 | 29 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 5.03 | 5.03 | -0.3 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 51 | 29 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.9% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 3.4% | 5.08 | 5.12 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 335 | 0 | 352 | 1485 | 259 | 151 | 49 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.4% | 10.2% | 7.2% | 3.3% | 5.13 | 4.72 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 147 | 86 | 28 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.4% | 10.2% | 7.2% | 3.3% | 5.13 | 4.72 | +1.6 | ||
| Career | — | 104 | 53 | 316 | 1350 | 232 | 163 | 46 | 51% | 3.0 | 17.2% | 12.0% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 4.02 | 5.06 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 66 | 34 | 200 | 855 | 147 | 103 | 29 | 51% | 3.0 | 17.2% | 12.0% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 4.02 | 5.06 | +0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alessandro Ercolani (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.68 | 12.7% | 11.1% | 3.4% | — | 5.18 | 16.6% | 6.2% | 223 | -0.50 | — | — | — |
| Chance Huff R 2027 · 5.78 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.78 | 11.8% | 11.4% | 4.1% | .312 | 5.14 | 15.7% | -0.0% | 151 | -0.64 | 4.35 | 235 | 87 |
| Jheyson Caraballo R 2025 · 5.25 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.25 | 11.9% | 10.6% | 3.3% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 101 | 85 |
| Justin Ferrell R 2026 · 5.48 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.48 | 14.9% | 14.0% | 3.4% | .261 | 4.31 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 173 | -1.17 | 3.80 | 300 | 84 |
| Wirkin Estevez R 2028 · 5.36 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.36 | 10.7% | 13.4% | 2.7% | .316 | 4.42 | 12.3% | 3.5% | 179 | -0.94 | 4.24 | 238 | 84 |
| Anyelo Gómez R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.85 | 17.1% | 12.2% | 3.0% | .292 | 2.69 | 24.2% | 15.6% | 68 | -2.16 | 2.69 | 145 | 83 |
| Garrett Nuss R 2026 · 5.91 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.91 | 14.1% | 14.9% | 3.8% | .352 | 4.67 | 15.0% | 5.3% | 92 | -1.24 | 4.56 | 174 | 83 |
| Ben Ethridge R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.48 | 14.4% | 13.2% | 1.7% | .250 | 6.15 | 13.0% | 2.0% | 66 | +1.67 | 4.48 | 144 | 83 |
| Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.91 | 12.7% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .348 | 3.83 | 16.5% | 8.0% | 135 | -1.08 | 3.22 | 218 | 83 |
| Houston Roth R 2027 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.58 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.8% | .263 | 4.63 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 228 | +0.05 | 3.57 | 389 | 83 |
| Jormy Nivar R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.98 | 12.9% | 8.8% | 3.4% | .286 | 5.00 | 14.0% | 2.2% | 44 | +0.02 | 1.98 | 180 | 82 |
| Hunter Hayes R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.52 | 13.3% | 9.7% | 2.4% | .307 | 4.64 | 16.7% | 4.2% | 149 | +0.12 | 3.33 | 210 | 82 |
| Daniel Nunez R 2026 · 5.74 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.74 | 12.1% | 9.8% | 4.4% | .314 | 8.74 | 7.0% | -4.2% | 16 | +3.00 | 2.77 | 161 | 82 |
| Trent Fennell R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.48 | 14.5% | 12.5% | 1.9% | .317 | 4.24 | 20.9% | 7.5% | 89 | -0.24 | 3.88 | 163 | 82 |
| Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.91 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 3.5% | .354 | 3.46 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 89 | -1.45 | 3.06 | 165 | 81 |
| Zach Mort R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.14 | 10.7% | 12.3% | 2.5% | .240 | 5.35 | 17.0% | 8.8% | 176 | +0.21 | 5.14 | 237 | 81 |
| Cooper Adams R 2028 · 5.35 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.35 | 13.0% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .275 | 3.92 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 118 | -1.43 | 2.99 | 197 | 81 |
| Axel Rios R 2027 · 4.57 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.57 | 13.1% | 13.5% | 1.6% | .333 | 4.01 | 15.2% | 3.2% | 97 | -0.56 | 3.45 | 153 | 81 |
| Dawson Netz R 2028 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.4% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .321 | 4.42 | 23.3% | 12.6% | 51 | -0.85 | 4.42 | 102 | 80 |
| Victor Munoz R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.71 | 14.4% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.18 | 260 | 80 |
| Luke Young R 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.47 | 13.7% | 8.7% | 4.4% | .284 | 5.07 | 16.0% | 3.9% | 96 | -0.40 | 4.42 | 288 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 74 | 16.6% | 10.3% | 1.27 | 5.22 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Matt Moore ('24) | 8 | 98 | 20.5% | 9.3% | 1.33 | 4.82 |