Alessandro Ercolani

Alessandro Ercolani P Altoona Curve

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.0 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION25 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 123

ERA5.61

FIP5.61

K%12.7%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%1.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 31 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL5050

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-2	$0.7M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates Gold	10	0	18	82	20	7	1	0%	1.8	16.6%	10.7%	5.9%	1.8%	5.40	4.04	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates Gold	10	0	18	82	20	7	1	0%	1.8	24.4%	8.5%	15.9%	1.2%	5.40	2.77	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	10	8	30	129	39	20	0	80%	3.0	20.6%	19.4%	1.2%	0.0%	1.19	3.82	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates	10	8	30	129	39	20	0	80%	3.0	30.2%	15.5%	14.7%	0.0%	1.19	2.51	—
2023	19	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	17	15	65	275	66	31	8	88%	3.8	17.8%	13.3%	4.5%	3.9%	4.43	5.42	—
2023	19	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	17	15	65	275	66	31	8	88%	3.8	17.8%	13.3%	4.5%	3.9%	4.43	5.42	—
2023	19	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	17	15	65	275	66	31	8	88%	3.8	24.0%	11.3%	12.7%	2.9%	4.43	4.10	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	24	9	77	313	93	25	8	38%	3.2	22.9%	9.2%	13.7%	2.9%	3.29	3.92	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	24	9	77	313	93	25	8	38%	3.2	22.9%	9.2%	13.7%	2.9%	3.29	3.92	—
2024	20	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	24	9	77	313	93	25	8	38%	3.2	29.7%	8.0%	21.7%	2.6%	3.29	3.01	—
2025	21	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	25	21	100	434	68	39	12	84%	4.0	12.7%	9.9%	2.8%	3.7%	4.04	5.33	—
2025	21	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	25	21	100	434	68	39	12	84%	4.0	12.7%	9.9%	2.8%	3.7%	4.04	5.33	—
2025	21	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	25	21	100	434	68	39	12	84%	4.0	15.7%	9.0%	6.7%	2.8%	4.04	4.47	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	18	0	25	117	22	18	5	0%	1.4	13.8%	17.6%	-3.8%	6.0%	7.56	7.46	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	18	0	25	117	22	18	5	0%	1.4	13.8%	17.6%	-3.8%	6.0%	7.56	7.46	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	PIT	2	0	4	17	5	2	0	0%	2.1	29.4%	11.8%	17.6%	0.0%	2.08	2.11	—
2026	22	AA RAW	PIT	16	0	21	100	17	16	5	0%	1.3	17.0%	16.0%	1.0%	5.0%	8.71	6.44	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	PIT	6	0	6	25	3	3	1	0%	1.0	12.7%	11.2%	1.5%	3.2%	5.61	5.61	-0.1
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	PIT	—	—	31	142	25	21	6	—	—	17.7%	14.7%	3.1%	4.1%	7.19	7.11	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	PIT	89	0	94	396	60	42	13	0%	1.1	15.1%	10.5%	4.6%	3.2%	5.35	5.28	-0.8
2028	24	MLB MLE	PIT	91	0	96	405	67	41	13	0%	1.1	16.6%	10.1%	6.5%	3.1%	5.15	5.07	-0.6
2029	25	MLB MLE	PIT	93	0	97	410	72	40	13	0%	1.0	17.4%	9.8%	7.6%	3.1%	5.02	4.96	-0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	PIT	93	0	97	410	73	40	13	0%	1.0	17.8%	9.7%	8.1%	3.1%	4.95	4.91	-0.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	PIT	91	0	96	404	72	40	13	0%	1.1	17.8%	9.8%	8.0%	3.2%	4.95	4.95	-0.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	PIT	88	0	93	392	69	39	13	0%	1.1	17.7%	10.0%	7.7%	3.3%	5.00	5.03	-0.5
2033	29	MLB MLE	PIT	84	0	89	374	65	38	13	0%	1.1	17.5%	10.2%	7.3%	3.4%	5.10	5.17	-0.6
2034	30	MLB MLE	PIT	79	0	83	352	60	37	13	0%	1.1	17.1%	10.5%	6.6%	3.6%	5.25	5.34	-0.7
2027	23	MLB CTX	PIT	45	0	47	198	30	21	6	0%	1.0	15.1%	10.5%	4.6%	2.9%	5.22	5.15	-0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	PIT	65	0	68	287	48	29	8	0%	1.0	16.6%	10.1%	6.5%	2.9%	5.02	4.94	-0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	PIT	75	0	79	334	58	33	10	0%	1.1	17.4%	9.8%	7.6%	2.9%	4.89	4.83	-0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	PIT	81	0	85	359	64	35	10	0%	1.0	17.8%	9.7%	8.1%	2.9%	4.82	4.78	-0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	PIT	83	0	87	367	65	36	11	0%	1.0	17.8%	9.8%	8.0%	2.9%	4.82	4.82	-0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	PIT	82	0	86	363	64	36	11	0%	1.0	17.7%	10.0%	7.7%	3.0%	4.87	4.90	-0.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	PIT	78	0	82	346	60	35	11	0%	1.1	17.5%	10.2%	7.3%	3.1%	4.96	5.03	-0.6
2034	30	MLB CTX	PIT	74	0	78	329	56	35	11	0%	1.1	17.1%	10.5%	6.6%	3.3%	5.10	5.19	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		582	0	611	2581	446	259	77	0%	1.1	17.3%	10.0%	7.2%	3.0%	4.94	4.56	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	146	85	25	0%	1.1	17.3%	10.0%	7.2%	3.0%	4.94	4.56	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		104	53	316	1350	232	163	44	51%	3.0	17.2%	12.0%	5.1%	3.3%	4.02	4.98	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	34	200	855	147	103	28	51%	3.0	17.2%	12.0%	5.1%	3.3%	4.02	4.98	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alessandro Ercolani (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.61	12.7%	11.2%	3.2%	—	5.10	16.4%	6.3%	287	-0.51	—	—	—
Chance Huff R 2023 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	11.8%	11.4%	3.7%	.312	5.08	15.7%	0.2%	155	-0.49	4.31	238	88
Jheyson Caraballo R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	21	SW	5.25	11.9%	10.6%	3.3%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	101	85
Joshua Torres R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	21	SW	4.47	12.0%	8.5%	2.4%	.308	2.63	23.4%	15.2%	108	-1.84	2.14	217	85
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	84
Justin Ferrell R 2016 · 5.30 FIP	22	SW	5.30	14.9%	14.0%	3.1%	.261	4.34	20.4%	9.1%	173	-0.96	3.83	300	84
Ben Ethridge R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	14.4%	13.2%	1.7%	.250	6.04	13.0%	2.0%	66	+1.59	4.45	144	83
Garrett Nuss R 2015 · 5.71 FIP	22	SW	5.71	14.1%	14.9%	3.5%	.352	4.58	15.0%	5.3%	92	-1.13	4.57	174	83
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	83
Axel Rios R 2016 · 4.70 FIP	23	SW	4.70	13.1%	13.5%	1.8%	.333	4.06	15.2%	3.2%	97	-0.64	3.50	153	83
Hunter Hayes R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	22	SW	4.53	13.3%	9.7%	2.4%	.307	4.49	16.5%	4.0%	155	-0.04	3.34	216	83
Houston Roth R 2021 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.83	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.20	3.79	406	83
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2021 · 4.98 FIP	23	SP-	4.98	12.7%	9.1%	3.3%	.348	3.92	16.5%	8.0%	135	-1.06	3.30	218	83
Trent Fennell R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	14.5%	12.5%	1.9%	.317	4.46	20.9%	7.5%	89	-0.02	4.08	163	82
Zach Mort R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	22	SW	5.01	10.7%	12.3%	2.3%	.240	5.35	17.0%	8.8%	176	+0.34	4.95	237	81
Jonathan Hughes R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SP-	4.60	12.9%	12.5%	1.8%	.351	3.79	16.5%	6.2%	146	-0.81	3.44	219	81
Victor Munoz R 2023 · 4.84 FIP	22	SW	4.84	14.4%	10.1%	3.1%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	2.18	260	81
Nattino Diplan R 2016 · 4.98 FIP	22	SW	4.98	8.9%	10.3%	2.4%	.366	4.38	15.4%	1.8%	175	-0.60	4.09	295	80
Gabriel Valdez R 2018 · 4.74 FIP	22	SW	4.74	14.7%	10.2%	2.9%	.255	8.33	13.7%	-1.4%	28	+3.59	1.93	244	80
Marco Camarena R 2016 · 4.49 FIP	25	SW	4.49	11.0%	9.3%	2.1%	.365	3.75	8.4%	0.9%	73	-0.74	3.75	142	79
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.1	91	16.8%	10.2%	1.25	5.14
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70