Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 14 | 83 | 367 | 61 | 29 | 10 | 58% | 3.5 | 12.7% | 9.1% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.91 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 14 | 83 | 367 | 61 | 29 | 10 | 58% | 3.5 | 16.6% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 4.55 | 4.24 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 31 | 0 | 70 | 291 | 67 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 2.3 | 17.7% | 6.7% | 11.0% | 1.4% | 3.33 | 3.22 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 31 | 0 | 70 | 291 | 67 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 2.3 | 23.0% | 5.8% | 17.2% | 1.4% | 3.33 | 2.66 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 41 | 0 | 65 | 296 | 55 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.6 | 15.1% | 10.4% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 4.87 | 4.49 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 41 | 0 | 65 | 296 | 55 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.6 | 18.6% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 2.4% | 4.87 | 4.11 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | STL | 43 | 0 | 45 | 189 | 42 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 9.4% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | STL | 41 | 0 | 43 | 181 | 40 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 9.6% | 12.6% | 3.1% | 4.48 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | STL | 12 | 0 | 13 | 55 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 9.6% | 12.6% | 3.1% | 4.48 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 13 | 0 | 13 | 57 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 9.6% | 12.6% | 3.1% | 4.48 | 4.15 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 194 | 75 | 30 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 9.6% | 12.6% | 3.1% | 4.48 | 4.15 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 96 | 14 | 218 | 954 | 143 | 84 | 23 | 15% | 2.3 | 15.0% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 2.4% | 4.25 | 4.26 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 88 | 13 | 200 | 875 | 131 | 77 | 21 | 15% | 2.3 | 15.0% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 2.4% | 4.25 | 4.26 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Trogrlic-Iverson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 22.3% | 9.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.53 | 22.2% | 12.6% | 43 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 85 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.12 | 22.9% | 10.0% | 3.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 472 | 81 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.87 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.45 | 2.42 | 125 | 81 |
| Blake Smith R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.66 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 124 | 79 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 2.0% | .359 | 5.26 | 12.8% | 2.8% | 47 | +1.80 | 3.46 | 108 | 79 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.56 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .283 | 4.38 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.82 | 3.56 | 104 | 79 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.72 | 19.2% | 8.2% | 4.0% | .311 | 5.88 | 16.9% | 4.6% | 74 | +1.16 | 3.33 | 258 | 79 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .311 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | -0.14 | 3.21 | 157 | 79 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 78 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 78 |
| Bud Norris R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 77 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .327 | 4.77 | 20.9% | 11.8% | 74 | +1.31 | 2.32 | 676 | 77 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 77 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .333 | 4.06 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.44 | 3.62 | 147 | 77 |
| Dayan Díaz R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.43 | 25.1% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .358 | 4.01 | 29.4% | 19.3% | 16 | +0.58 | 3.17 | 205 | 77 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.72 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 125 | 77 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.36 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.03 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.27 | 150 | 77 |
| Luis Mateo R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 76 |
| Trevor May R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 26.1% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .291 | 3.46 | 31.9% | 23.6% | 150 | -0.37 | 3.04 | 432 | 76 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 44 | 22.3% | 9.5% | 1.18 | 4.44 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |