Tanner Dodson
P
Las Vegas Aviators
Age 29
RHP
6'1" / 160 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION29 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.86
FIP4.86
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.6%
BB%12.4%
K-BB%6.1%
IP29
K†4545
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Charlotte Stone Crabs | 8 | 3 | 17 | 85 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 13.6% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 5.29 | 5.16 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 37 | 1 | 56 | 243 | 64 | 23 | 4 | 20.6% | 10.7% | 2.2% | 3.20 | 3.93 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 30 | 0 | 36 | 188 | 31 | 38 | 2 | 12.9% | 21.8% | 1.3% | 8.25 | 5.50 | -0.4 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Oklahoma City Dodgers | 50 | 0 | 66 | 301 | 51 | 42 | 6 | 14.0% | 15.1% | 2.1% | 4.88 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Oklahoma City Baseball Club | 41 | 1 | 62 | 284 | 58 | 42 | 3 | 18.0% | 15.5% | 1.5% | 3.32 | 4.35 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 34 | 1 | 41 | 194 | 32 | 24 | 5 | 14.5% | 13.0% | 2.1% | 7.90 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 29 | — | 29 | 123 | 23 | 15 | 3 | 18.6% | 12.4% | 2.5% | 4.86 | 4.86 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 27 | — | 27 | 116 | 22 | 14 | 3 | 18.7% | 12.4% | 2.7% | 4.91 | 4.98 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 200 | 6 | 279 | 1295 | 207 | 191 | 25 | 16.0% | 14.7% | 1.9% | 5.10 | 4.68 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 143 | 4 | 200 | 928 | 148 | 137 | 18 | 16.0% | 14.7% | 1.9% | 5.10 | 4.68 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tanner Dodson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.86 | 18.6% | 12.4% | 2.5% | — | 4.98 | 18.7% | 6.3% | 27 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Alex Caldera R 2026 · 5.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.56 | 10.4% | 13.1% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.61 | 11.9% | 0.8% | 84 | -0.95 | 4.61 | 120 | 81 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2025 · 5.09 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.09 | 15.3% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 173 | 80 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2025 · 5.15 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.15 | 15.9% | 13.8% | 3.0% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 237 | 79 |
| Kyle McMyne R 2024 · 4.79 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.79 | 12.5% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 181 | 79 |
| Fernando Villalobos R 2027 · 5.27 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.27 | 8.3% | 13.1% | 2.2% | .365 | 4.44 | 11.4% | 3.1% | 109 | -0.83 | 4.15 | 152 | 78 |
| Wil Browning R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.58 | 17.9% | 13.1% | 2.4% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.12 | 162 | 78 |
| Benjamin Sandoval R 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.24 | 6.7% | 11.3% | 2.3% | .292 | 5.38 | 9.0% | -4.4% | 49 | +0.14 | 4.89 | 146 | 78 |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 5.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.81 | 16.3% | 13.2% | 4.4% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.49 | 215 | 77 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.34 | 8.6% | 13.4% | 2.3% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 160 | 76 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 76 |
| Noah Davis R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.08 | 15.6% | 12.8% | 3.1% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 533 | 75 |
| Derek Eitel R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.76 | 17.2% | 16.0% | 2.0% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 138 | 75 |
| Dan Winkler R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.97 | 20.6% | 15.2% | 3.1% | .237 | 4.27 | 23.0% | 8.4% | 104 | -0.70 | 2.40 | 231 | 75 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 75 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.37 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.37 | 16.4% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 140 | 75 |
| Jordan Gore R 2024 · 5.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.47 | 15.2% | 18.5% | 2.4% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 74 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.54 | 12.5% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .346 | 7.46 | 8.6% | 1.4% | 39 | +2.92 | 4.54 | 224 | 74 |
| Eder Llamas R 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.20 | 12.3% | 8.8% | 3.7% | .261 | 3.71 | 11.3% | 4.6% | 120 | -1.49 | 3.27 | 171 | 74 |
| Mark Appel R 2027 · 5.85 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.85 | 15.6% | 15.6% | 3.8% | .260 | 4.17 | 18.5% | 8.1% | 40 | -1.68 | 4.17 | 363 | 72 |
| Charles Hall R 2025 · 5.06 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.06 | 18.0% | 19.1% | 1.9% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.43 | 181 | 72 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.