Tanner Dodson

P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 30 RHP 6'1" / 160 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	26	MIX2 levels	50	0	66	4.88	4.64	16.9%	14.0%	—	K 13.9% · BB 14.4% · FIP 4.96
2024	27	AAAOklahoma City…	41	1	62	3.32	3.89	20.4%	14.8%	—	K 17.6% · BB 13.3% · FIP 4.01
2025	28	AAAOAK	34	1	41	7.90	4.88	16.5%	12.4%	—	K 14.2% · BB 11.1% · FIP 4.63
2026	29	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	30	MLBOAK	6	0	6	5.49	5.49	14.1%	13.2%	-0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	31	MLBOAK	13	0	14	5.49	5.57	14.7%	13.2%	-0.2
2029PROJ55% MLB	32	MLBOAK	16	0	17	5.58	5.71	14.9%	13.3%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control40Command35

CompsWirfin Obispo (age 30) · Fernando Villalobos (age 30) · Jesus Adrian Castillo (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.49

FIP5.49

K%14.1%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%0.9%

Proj IP58

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	22	A+ MLE	Charlotte Stone Crabs	8	3	17	85	15	8	2	38%	2.1	13.6%	10.8%	2.8%	3.1%	5.29	5.04	—
2019	22	A+ RAW	Charlotte Stone Crabs	8	3	17	85	15	8	2	38%	2.1	17.6%	9.4%	8.2%	2.4%	5.29	4.28	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	1	56	243	64	23	4	3%	1.5	20.6%	10.7%	9.9%	2.1%	3.20	3.87	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	1	56	243	64	23	4	3%	1.5	26.3%	9.5%	16.9%	1.6%	3.20	2.98	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	36	188	31	38	2	0%	1.2	12.9%	21.8%	-8.9%	1.3%	8.25	5.49	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	36	188	31	38	2	0%	1.2	16.5%	20.2%	-3.7%	1.1%	8.25	5.27	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	66	301	51	42	6	0%	1.3	13.9%	14.4%	-0.5%	2.2%	4.88	4.96	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	66	301	51	42	6	0%	1.3	16.9%	14.0%	3.0%	2.0%	4.88	4.64	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Baseball Club	41	1	62	284	58	42	3	2%	1.5	17.6%	13.3%	4.3%	1.3%	3.32	4.01	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Baseball Club	41	1	62	284	58	42	3	2%	1.5	17.6%	13.3%	4.3%	1.3%	3.32	4.01	—
2024	27	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Baseball Club	41	1	62	284	58	42	3	2%	1.5	20.4%	14.8%	5.6%	1.1%	3.32	3.89	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	34	1	41	194	32	24	5	3%	1.2	14.2%	11.1%	3.1%	2.4%	7.90	4.63	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	34	1	41	194	32	24	5	3%	1.2	14.2%	11.1%	3.1%	2.4%	7.90	4.63	—
2025	28	AAA RAW	Las Vegas Aviators	34	1	41	194	32	24	5	3%	1.2	16.5%	12.4%	4.1%	2.6%	7.90	4.88	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	OAK	6	0	6	25	4	3	1	0%	1.0	14.1%	13.2%	0.9%	2.8%	5.49	5.49	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	OAK	37	0	39	166	24	22	5	0%	1.1	14.7%	13.2%	1.5%	3.0%	5.49	5.57	-0.4
2029	32	MLB MLE	OAK	30	0	31	131	19	17	4	0%	1.0	14.9%	13.3%	1.6%	3.3%	5.58	5.71	-0.4
2028	31	MLB CTX	OAK	13	0	14	59	9	8	2	0%	1.1	14.7%	13.2%	1.5%	3.0%	5.49	5.57	-0.2
2029	32	MLB CTX	OAK	16	0	17	72	11	10	2	0%	1.1	14.9%	13.3%	1.6%	3.3%	5.58	5.71	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		30	0	32	133	20	18	4	0%	1.1	14.8%	13.2%	1.5%	3.2%	5.54	5.27	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	127	114	25	0%	1.1	14.8%	13.2%	1.5%	3.2%	5.54	5.27	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		200	6	279	1295	205	179	25	3%	1.4	15.8%	13.8%	2.0%	2.0%	5.10	4.58	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		143	4	200	928	147	128	18	3%	1.4	15.8%	13.8%	2.0%	2.0%	5.10	4.58	-2.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 41 IPFIP 4.69 → 4.63 (−0.06)K% 16.5% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.49%	—	×0.860	14.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.37%	—	×0.900	11.13%
HR / BF /BF	2.58%	÷1.183	×1.100	2.40%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 137).

Result: FIP 4.69 → 4.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAOklahoma City Baseball Club · 62 IPFIP 3.83 → 4.01 (+0.19)K% 20.4% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.42%	—	×0.860	17.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.79%	—	×0.900	13.31%
HR / BF /BF	1.06%	÷0.896	×1.100	1.30%

Result: FIP 3.83 → 4.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AATulsa Drillers · 48 IPFIP 4.79 → 5.40 (+0.61)K% 17.7% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.67%	—	×0.810	14.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.02%	—	×1.100	14.33%
HR / BF /BF	2.79%	÷1.083	×1.200	3.09%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 4.79 → 5.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 18 IPFIP 3.89 → 3.86 (−0.03)K% 15.1% → 13.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.12%	—	×0.860	13.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.28%	—	×0.900	14.65%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.006	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.89 → 3.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AATulsa Drillers · 34 IPFIP 4.86 → 5.49 (+0.63)K% 15.9% → 12.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.93%	—	×0.810	12.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.78%	—	×1.100	21.76%
HR / BF /BF	1.10%	÷0.993	×1.200	1.33%

Result: FIP 4.86 → 5.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 40 IPFIP 2.44 → 3.33 (+0.89)K% 28.3% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.31%	—	×0.770	21.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.43%	—	×1.150	9.70%
HR / BF /BF	1.20%	÷0.978	×1.250	1.54%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 2.44 → 3.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 17 IPFIP 4.14 → 5.04 (+0.90)K% 22.1% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.08%	—	×0.810	17.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.69%	—	×1.100	12.86%
HR / BF /BF	2.60%	÷0.938	×1.200	3.32%

Result: FIP 4.14 → 5.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs · 17 IPFIP 4.09 → 5.04 (+0.95)K% 17.6% → 13.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.65%	—	×0.770	13.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.41%	—	×1.150	10.82%
HR / BF /BF	2.35%	÷0.939	×1.250	3.13%

Result: FIP 4.09 → 5.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tanner Dodson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.49	14.1%	13.2%	2.8%	—	5.63	14.8%	1.5%	70	+0.14	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	83
Fernando Villalobos R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	30	SU	5.33	8.3%	13.1%	2.3%	.365	4.36	11.4%	3.1%	109	-0.97	4.00	152	82
Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	31	SU	4.37	9.8%	9.5%	1.6%	.307	3.52	13.2%	7.9%	80	-0.85	2.23	173	80
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	80
Esteban Haro R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	17.1%	10.2%	2.9%	.338	3.83	11.6%	6.3%	75	-0.72	3.76	164	79
Willie Eyre R 2007 · 4.53 FIP	29	SU	4.53	13.7%	9.1%	2.6%	.306	2.87	11.1%	5.5%	18	-1.66	2.87	164	78
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	78
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.49 FIP	29	SU	5.49	15.9%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	77
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	77
Jeff Gray R 2012 · 5.43 FIP	30	SU	5.43	11.0%	9.3%	3.8%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	127	77
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	76
Ivan Zavala R 2017 · 5.02 FIP	30	SU	5.02	12.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.286	5.15	12.7%	5.3%	61	+0.13	4.27	209	76
Brandon Puffer R 2004 · 5.23 FIP	28	SU	5.23	13.5%	11.2%	3.4%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	108	75
Luis Angel Daniel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	30	SU	4.47	9.9%	6.9%	2.4%	.292	4.36	11.6%	2.4%	107	-0.11	4.16	156	75
Ramon Troncoso R 2013 · 4.95 FIP	30	SU	4.95	13.1%	10.9%	2.9%	.260	3.05	17.3%	9.5%	82	-1.90	2.65	310	73
Ronald Peña R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	29	SU	4.49	16.5%	10.4%	2.7%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	187	73
Kyle Snyder R 2007 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	16.9%	12.4%	2.9%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	236	73
Carlos Fisher R 2011 · 4.33 FIP	28	SU	4.33	15.5%	9.1%	2.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	73
Jason Boyd R 2003 · 4.34 FIP	30	SU	4.34	14.0%	11.3%	1.8%	.211	6.33	18.8%	7.9%	13	+1.99	3.68	128	72
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	43	14.5%	13.2%	1.15	5.51
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*