Jordan Mikel

P Birmingham Barons

Age 28 RHP 6'5" / 190 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	24	MIX2 levels	15	2	23	3.09	3.27	32.3%	9.4%	—	K 26.4% · BB 11.0% · FIP 3.19
2024	25	MIX3 levels	31	0	59	5.52	3.19	24.7%	8.6%	—	K 21.6% · BB 8.7% · FIP 3.04
2025	26	AACWS	25	2	46	4.11	3.49	19.8%	7.3%	—	K 16.0% · BB 8.0% · FIP 4.51
2026	27	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	28	MLBCWS	1	0	1	4.76	4.76	17.1%	8.7%	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBCWS	13	0	14	4.79	4.84	17.5%	9.0%	-0.0
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBCWS	18	0	19	4.89	4.98	17.6%	9.3%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control55Command45

CompsTyler Walker (age 28) · Luis Mateo (age 27) · Jhan Mariñez (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 107

ERA4.76

FIP4.76

K%17.1%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%8.4%

Proj IP59

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	40	187	51	20	4	0%	1.4	20.5%	12.5%	7.9%	2.8%	4.50	4.49	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	0	40	187	51	20	4	0%	1.4	27.3%	10.7%	16.6%	2.1%	4.50	3.35	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	6	47	193	38	18	7	33%	2.6	12.8%	11.6%	1.2%	4.6%	4.05	6.04	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	6	47	193	38	18	7	33%	2.6	19.7%	9.3%	10.4%	3.6%	4.05	4.58	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	2	23	96	31	9	3	13%	1.6	26.4%	11.0%	15.3%	1.7%	3.09	3.19	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	2	23	96	31	9	3	13%	1.6	32.3%	9.4%	22.9%	3.1%	3.09	3.27	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	0	59	255	63	22	5	0%	1.9	21.6%	8.7%	12.8%	1.2%	5.52	3.04	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	0	59	255	63	22	5	0%	1.9	21.6%	8.7%	12.8%	1.2%	5.52	3.04	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	0	59	255	63	22	5	0%	1.9	24.7%	8.6%	16.1%	2.0%	5.52	3.19	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	25	2	46	192	38	14	4	8%	1.8	16.0%	8.0%	8.0%	3.2%	4.11	4.51	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	25	2	46	192	38	14	4	8%	1.8	16.0%	8.0%	8.0%	3.2%	4.11	4.51	—
2025	26	AA RAW	Birmingham Barons	25	2	46	192	38	14	4	8%	1.8	19.8%	7.3%	12.5%	2.1%	4.11	3.49	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	CWS	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	17.1%	8.7%	8.4%	2.9%	4.76	4.76	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	CWS	42	0	44	187	33	17	6	0%	1.1	17.5%	9.0%	8.5%	3.1%	4.79	4.84	-0.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	CWS	35	0	37	155	27	14	5	0%	1.0	17.6%	9.3%	8.3%	3.3%	4.89	4.98	-0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	CWS	13	0	14	59	10	5	2	0%	1.1	17.5%	9.0%	8.5%	3.1%	4.79	4.84	-0.0
2029	30	MLB CTX	CWS	18	0	19	80	14	7	3	0%	1.1	17.6%	9.3%	8.3%	3.3%	4.89	4.98	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		31	0	33	138	24	13	4	0%	1.1	17.5%	9.2%	8.4%	3.2%	4.85	4.54	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	147	79	24	0%	1.1	17.5%	9.2%	8.4%	3.2%	4.85	4.54	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		117	10	215	923	174	94	25	9%	1.8	18.8%	10.2%	8.7%	2.7%	4.44	4.28	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		109	9	200	860	162	88	23	9%	1.8	18.8%	10.2%	8.7%	2.7%	4.44	4.28	-0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AABirmingham Barons · 46 IPFIP 3.50 → 4.51 (+1.02)K% 19.8% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.79%	—	×0.810	16.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.29%	—	×1.100	8.02%
HR / BF /BF	2.08%	÷0.784	×1.200	3.19%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 57).

Result: FIP 3.50 → 4.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABirmingham Barons · 51 IPFIP 2.37 → 3.04 (+0.67)K% 26.6% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.64%	—	×0.810	21.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.94%	—	×1.100	8.74%
HR / BF /BF	0.93%	÷0.935	×1.200	1.20%

Result: FIP 2.37 → 3.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 7 IPFIP 7.20 → 10.22 (+3.02)K% 17.6% → 13.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.65%	—	×0.770	13.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.88%	—	×1.150	6.76%
HR / BF /BF	8.82%	÷0.817	×1.250	13.50%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 63).

Result: FIP 7.20 → 10.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 18 IPFIP 2.17 → 3.19 (+1.02)K% 34.2% → 26.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.25%	—	×0.770	26.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.59%	—	×1.150	11.03%
HR / BF /BF	1.37%	÷1.017	×1.250	1.68%

Result: FIP 2.17 → 3.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL White Sox · 5 IPFIP 6.77 → 6.02 (−0.75)K% 26.1% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.09%	—	×0.680	17.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.70%	—	×1.250	10.87%
HR / BF /BF	8.70%	÷2.194	×1.400	5.55%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 339).

Result: FIP 6.77 → 6.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 40 IPFIP 4.92 → 6.04 (+1.11)K% 16.6% → 12.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.57%	—	×0.770	12.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.06%	—	×1.150	11.57%
HR / BF /BF	3.55%	÷0.955	×1.250	4.65%

Result: FIP 4.92 → 6.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 6 IPFIP 2.30 → 3.73 (+1.44)K% 47.6% → 35.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	47.62%	—	×0.740	35.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.76%	—	×1.180	5.62%
HR / BF /BF	4.76%	÷1.172	×1.300	5.28%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 134).

Result: FIP 2.30 → 3.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 27 IPFIP 2.20 → 3.07 (+0.87)K% 27.9% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.87%	—	×0.740	20.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.48%	—	×1.180	13.54%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.925	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.20 → 3.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jordan Mikel (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.76	17.1%	8.7%	2.9%	—	4.90	17.5%	8.4%	81	+0.14	—	—	—
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	89
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	85
Jhan Mariñez R 2017 · 3.97 FIP	28	SU	3.97	17.2%	8.8%	2.2%	.309	4.09	21.2%	13.3%	48	+0.12	3.16	253	84
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	83
J.J. Putz R 2005 · 4.36 FIP	28	SU	4.36	17.4%	8.1%	3.1%	.270	2.24	31.4%	25.1%	196	-2.12	1.43	563	83
Ryan Doolittle R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	28	SU	4.38	13.9%	7.1%	2.8%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	101	83
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	83
Donovan Hand R 2013 · 4.72 FIP	27	SW	4.72	12.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.279	4.30	11.1%	6.8%	97	-0.42	4.30	305	82
Geoff Geary R 2005 · 3.65 FIP	28	SU	3.65	17.0%	6.9%	2.0%	.268	3.57	15.1%	9.0%	223	-0.08	3.16	345	82
Drew Hayes R 2016 · 3.99 FIP	28	SU	3.99	13.8%	10.1%	1.4%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	117	82
Jose Casilla R 2016 · 4.65 FIP	27	SU	4.65	13.0%	8.0%	3.0%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	104	82
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	82
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	82
Saul Rivera R 2006 · 3.83 FIP	28	SU	3.83	14.8%	9.4%	1.4%	.267	3.47	15.9%	7.3%	215	-0.36	3.09	276	82
Santiago Casilla R 2008 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	18.8%	7.9%	2.2%	.337	3.37	20.6%	10.4%	155	-0.34	2.76	647	82
Greg Burke R 2009 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	16.2%	8.8%	2.0%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	139	81
Shawn Camp R 2004 · 4.18 FIP	28	SU	4.18	17.8%	5.2%	3.5%	.305	3.88	15.5%	10.5%	164	-0.30	2.79	589	81
Carlos Fisher R 2011 · 4.33 FIP	28	SU	4.33	15.5%	9.1%	2.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	81
Bo Schultz R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SU	4.30	18.3%	7.9%	3.2%	.218	3.49	15.1%	8.9%	77	-0.81	2.73	141	81
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	47	17.3%	8.9%	1.20	4.80
Vic Darensbourg ('05)	1.5	50	17.0%	9.3%	1.01	4.96
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*