Nick Davila — OGILVIE

Nick Davila P Seattle Mariners

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 230 lbs MLB ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 70 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.75

FIP4.75

K%13.5%

BB%10.7%

K-BB%2.9%

ROS IP70

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5494.8

Whiff%

p1015.8%

p1010.9%

xwOBA vs

p250.341

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	27	13	94	406	99	32	6	48%	3.5	18.0%	9.3%	8.7%	2.1%	3.54	3.88	—
2021	22	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	27	13	94	406	99	32	6	48%	3.5	24.4%	7.9%	16.5%	1.5%	3.54	2.84	—
2022	23	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	13	11	57	252	53	13	7	85%	4.4	15.6%	6.1%	9.5%	2.8%	3.65	4.11	—
2022	23	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	13	11	57	252	53	13	7	85%	4.4	21.0%	5.2%	15.9%	2.8%	3.65	3.52	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	18	118	502	109	30	12	82%	5.3	16.8%	6.7%	10.1%	2.9%	4.51	4.11	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	18	118	502	109	30	12	82%	5.3	16.8%	6.7%	10.1%	2.9%	4.51	4.11	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	18	118	502	109	30	12	82%	5.3	21.7%	6.0%	15.7%	2.4%	4.51	3.34	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	13	0	22	90	28	3	3	0%	1.7	24.0%	3.8%	20.1%	3.5%	4.98	3.51	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	13	0	22	90	28	3	3	0%	1.7	24.0%	3.8%	20.1%	3.5%	4.98	3.51	—
2024	25	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	13	0	22	90	28	3	3	0%	1.7	31.1%	3.3%	27.8%	3.3%	4.98	2.73	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	39	0	51	218	40	22	2	0%	1.3	14.9%	11.1%	3.8%	1.4%	3.55	4.01	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	39	0	51	218	40	22	2	0%	1.3	14.9%	11.1%	3.8%	1.4%	3.55	4.01	—
2025	26	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	39	0	51	218	40	22	2	0%	1.3	18.3%	10.1%	8.3%	0.9%	3.55	3.34	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			24	0	27	119	13	13	2	0%	1.1	10.9%	10.9%	0.0%	1.7%	4.94	4.53	+0.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	40	0	47	199	29	17	2	0%	1.2	10.9%	10.9%	0.0%	1.7%	3.86	4.51	+0.0
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	40	0	47	199	29	17	2	0%	1.2	10.9%	10.9%	0.0%	1.7%	3.86	4.51	+0.0
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AA RAW	SEA	8	0	9	34	10	1	0	0%	1.1	29.4%	2.9%	26.5%	0.0%	2.00	0.99	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	SEA	8	0	10	46	6	3	0	0%	1.3	13.0%	6.5%	6.5%	0.0%	2.61	2.82	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	SEA	24	0	27	119	13	13	2	0%	1.1	10.9%	10.9%	0.0%	1.7%	4.94	4.48	+0.0
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	SEA	24	0	27	119	13	13	2	0%	1.1	10.9%	10.9%	0.0%	1.7%	4.94	4.48	+0.0
ROS	27	MLB MLE	SEA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	13.5%	10.7%	2.9%	2.6%	4.75	4.75	—
ROS	27	MLB CTX	SEA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	13.5%	10.7%	2.9%	2.6%	4.75	4.75	—
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	SEA	—	—	47	199	29	17	2	—	—	14.6%	8.5%	6.0%	1.0%	3.86	4.51	+0.0
FULL	27	MLB A+C	SEA	—	—	27	115	29	17	2	—	—	25.1%	14.7%	10.4%	1.7%	6.59	3.80	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	SEA	65	0	68	287	42	31	8	0%	1.0	14.7%	10.7%	4.0%	2.6%	5.00	5.04	-0.4
2028	29	MLB MLE	SEA	62	0	65	274	41	29	8	0%	1.0	15.1%	10.8%	4.3%	2.8%	5.04	5.11	-0.4
2027	28	MLB CTX	SEA	62	0	65	274	40	29	7	0%	1.0	14.7%	10.7%	4.0%	2.6%	5.00	5.04	-0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	SEA	59	0	62	262	40	28	7	0%	1.1	15.1%	10.8%	4.3%	2.8%	5.04	5.11	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		144	0	153	651	92	70	16	0%	1.1	14.2%	10.8%	3.4%	2.5%	5.01	4.66	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		188	0	200	849	120	91	21	0%	1.1	14.2%	10.8%	3.4%	2.5%	5.01	4.66	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		154	42	387	1667	272	136	40	27%	2.5	16.3%	8.2%	8.2%	2.4%	3.97	4.06	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		80	22	200	861	141	70	20	27%	2.5	16.3%	8.2%	8.2%	2.4%	3.97	4.06	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Davila (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.02	15.0%	10.6%	2.7%	—	5.07	14.9%	4.2%	133	+0.05	—	—	—
Josh Zeid R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	28	SU	4.12	16.6%	12.5%	1.6%	.302	5.19	16.9%	5.7%	194	+1.07	4.12	265	85
Casey Coleman R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	28	SW	4.32	12.6%	11.4%	1.5%	.349	4.14	18.3%	8.9%	146	-0.18	2.95	306	84
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	84
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	83
David Martinez R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SU	3.92	14.2%	8.3%	1.8%	.284	4.76	15.0%	7.9%	230	+0.84	3.92	297	82
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	82
Kyle McMyne R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	27	SU	4.84	12.5%	12.8%	2.1%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	181	81
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	81
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	80
Jose Casilla R 2016 · 4.65 FIP	27	SU	4.65	13.0%	8.0%	3.0%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	104	80
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	80
Mark Peterson R 2017 · 4.78 FIP	26	SU	4.78	13.7%	11.9%	2.4%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.65	185	79
Starling Peralta R 2016 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	9.9%	10.0%	1.7%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	117	79
Edison Frias R 2017 · 4.14 FIP	26	SU	4.14	13.0%	9.8%	1.6%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	279	79
Junior Lopez R 2016 · 3.89 FIP	25	SU	3.89	15.7%	9.9%	1.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	128	79
David Goforth R 2016 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	14.5%	12.8%	2.1%	.333	4.52	13.9%	4.6%	122	-0.16	3.98	256	79
Dylan Cumming R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SW	4.11	16.0%	10.7%	1.8%	.311	4.31	18.4%	9.4%	314	+0.20	3.75	406	79
Gonzalez Germen R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	27	SU	4.24	18.0%	12.5%	1.9%	.296	3.88	19.2%	8.3%	54	-0.36	3.70	146	79
Connor Johnstone R 2022 · 4.20 FIP	27	SW	4.20	12.2%	8.2%	2.0%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	319	79
Jake Dunning R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	27	SU	4.19	14.2%	11.4%	1.5%	.300	4.71	13.9%	2.8%	15	+0.52	4.19	120	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	66	14.9%	10.7%	1.05	5.02
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41