Nick Davila — OGILVIE

Nick Davila P Arkansas Travelers

+0.1 WAR

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 230 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2026

ERA4.45

FIP4.45

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%19.9%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%10.5%

IP49

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.3peak

2026

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†4545

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	22	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	27	13	94	406	99	32	6	18.0%	9.3%	2.1%	3.54	3.89	+1.4
2022	23	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	13	11	57	252	53	13	7	15.6%	6.1%	3.0%	3.65	4.19	+0.5
2023	24	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	22	18	118	502	109	30	12	16.9%	6.8%	2.9%	4.51	4.13	+1.6
2024	25	A+	Everett AquaSox	13	0	22	90	28	3	3	24.0%	3.8%	3.5%	4.98	3.46	+0.4
2025	26	AA	Arkansas Travelers	39	0	51	218	40	22	2	14.9%	11.1%	1.4%	3.55	4.02	+0.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	AA	Arkansas Travelers	4	0	4	17	4	0	0	—	—	—	2.25	—	—
ROS	27	MLB	SEA	49	—	49	206	37	22	6	18.1%	10.8%	2.7%	4.79	4.79	+0.1
2026 Total	27	MLB	SEA	—	—	53	223	41	22	6	18.5%	10.0%	2.5%	4.60	4.43	+0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	28	MLB	SEA	48	—	48	203	38	22	6	18.6%	10.7%	2.7%	4.76	4.77	+0.1
2028	29	MLB	SEA	47	—	47	198	37	21	6	18.8%	10.7%	2.8%	4.76	4.78	+0.1
2029	30	MLB	SEA	46	—	46	192	36	21	6	18.9%	10.7%	2.9%	4.79	4.82	+0.1
2030	31	MLB	SEA	44	—	44	185	35	20	5	18.7%	10.8%	2.9%	4.84	4.88	+0.0
2031	32	MLB	SEA	42	—	42	178	33	19	5	18.5%	10.9%	3.0%	4.92	4.97	-0.0
2032	33	MLB	SEA	40	—	40	170	31	19	5	18.2%	11.1%	3.1%	5.01	5.06	-0.1
2033	34	MLB	SEA	38	—	38	161	29	18	5	17.8%	11.3%	3.2%	5.11	5.17	-0.1
2034	35	MLB	SEA	36	—	36	152	26	18	5	17.4%	11.5%	3.3%	5.22	5.30	-0.1
2035	36	MLB	SEA	34	—	34	142	24	17	5	17.0%	11.8%	3.4%	5.35	5.43	-0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			118	42	345	1485	255	115	37	17.2%	7.7%	2.5%	3.97	3.98	+5.1
/ 200 IP	—			68	24	200	862	148	67	21	17.2%	7.7%	2.5%	3.97	3.98	+3.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Davila (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.79	18.1%	10.8%	2.7%	—	4.79	18.8%	8.1%	140	-0.00	—	—	—
Antonio Guzman R 2026 · 3.60 FIP	27	SU	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.16	254	88
Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.85 FIP	28	SU	4.85	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.87	18.2%	10.2%	272	-0.98	3.45	315	87
Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	27	SU	4.30	20.4%	12.1%	2.5%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	113	87
Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.78 FIP	28	SW	4.78	16.5%	9.9%	3.3%	.297	3.85	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.93	3.85	102	86
Bayden Root R 2025 · 3.81 FIP	26	SU	3.81	16.6%	9.8%	1.6%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	102	86
Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	17.6%	11.2%	2.8%	.309	5.45	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.87	3.47	160	86
Rob Scahill R 2027 · 3.75 FIP	28	SU	3.75	16.9%	7.7%	2.0%	.288	3.35	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.40	3.08	201	86
Michael Blazek R 2026 · 4.97 FIP	27	SU	4.97	17.9%	11.9%	3.4%	.336	4.43	17.5%	8.0%	124	-0.54	3.06	221	86
Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.57 FIP	27	SU	4.57	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.08	3.70	187	85
Jonathan Aro R 2026 · 3.96 FIP	27	SU	3.96	17.3%	10.9%	1.7%	.280	3.30	12.7%	9.3%	64	-0.66	2.57	323	85
Tanner Scheppers R 2027 · 4.38 FIP	28	SW	4.38	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.82	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.44	4.38	101	85
Tucker Healy R 2026 · 4.28 FIP	27	SU	4.28	15.6%	11.5%	1.9%	.321	5.21	19.2%	8.7%	24	+0.93	2.83	174	85
Wirfin Obispo R 2029 · 4.83 FIP	30	SU	4.83	18.6%	12.2%	3.2%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.52	1.30	218	85
Guido Knudson R 2025 · 4.70 FIP	26	SU	4.70	17.5%	10.8%	3.1%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	106	84
Derek Eitel R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	27	SU	4.34	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.29	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.05	4.00	138	84
Gonzalez Germen R 2026 · 4.29 FIP	27	SW	4.29	18.0%	12.5%	2.1%	.296	3.94	19.2%	8.3%	54	-0.35	3.68	146	84
David Holman R 2026 · 5.48 FIP	27	SU	5.48	15.6%	12.7%	3.8%	.324	5.48	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.00	5.37	129	83
Michael Dimock R 2026 · 4.12 FIP	27	SU	4.12	18.9%	7.8%	3.0%	.339	3.39	23.5%	12.8%	29	-0.73	3.11	166	83
Cole McDonald R 2026 · 5.16 FIP	27	SU	5.16	21.1%	13.8%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.84	153	83
Armando Rivero R 2026 · 4.26 FIP	27	SW	4.26	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.69	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.57	2.69	125	83

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.