Nick Davila
P
Seattle Mariners
Age 27
RHP
6'3" / 230 lbs
MLB
2026 ROS PROJECTION32 act + 51 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125115vR 106
ERA4.66
FIP4.66
K%14.0%
BB%11.4%
K-BB%2.5%
ROS IP51
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 83 IP
Grades · Statcast · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5594.9
Whiff%
p1017.3%
K%
p1011.7%
xwOBA vs
p630.299
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 27 | 13 | 94 | 406 | 99 | 32 | 6 | 48% | 3.5 | 18.0% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 2.2% | 3.54 | 3.96 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 27 | 13 | 94 | 406 | 99 | 32 | 6 | 48% | 3.5 | 24.4% | 7.9% | 16.5% | 1.5% | 3.54 | 2.84 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 13 | 11 | 57 | 252 | 53 | 13 | 7 | 85% | 4.4 | 15.6% | 6.1% | 9.5% | 2.3% | 3.65 | 3.83 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 13 | 11 | 57 | 252 | 53 | 13 | 7 | 85% | 4.4 | 21.0% | 5.2% | 15.9% | 2.8% | 3.65 | 3.52 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 18 | 118 | 502 | 109 | 30 | 12 | 82% | 5.3 | 16.9% | 6.8% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 4.51 | 4.09 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 18 | 118 | 502 | 109 | 30 | 12 | 82% | 5.3 | 21.7% | 6.0% | 15.7% | 2.4% | 4.51 | 3.34 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 13 | 0 | 22 | 90 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 24.0% | 3.8% | 20.1% | 3.1% | 4.98 | 3.26 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 13 | 0 | 22 | 90 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 31.1% | 3.3% | 27.8% | 3.3% | 4.98 | 2.73 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 39 | 0 | 51 | 218 | 40 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 14.9% | 11.1% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 3.55 | 4.26 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 39 | 0 | 51 | 218 | 40 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 18.3% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 0.9% | 3.55 | 3.34 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 29 | 0 | 32 | 129 | 21 | 12 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 11.7% | 13.0% | -1.3% | 0.0% | 2.23 | 3.76 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SEA | 48 | 0 | 51 | 214 | 30 | 24 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.0% | 11.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 4.66 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SEA | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 30 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.0% | 11.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 4.66 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 83 | 343 | 51 | 36 | 5 | — | — | 14.8% | 10.6% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 3.71 | 4.31 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 70 | 296 | 51 | 36 | 5 | — | — | 17.2% | 12.3% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 4.40 | 4.15 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 43 | 32 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.0% | 11.3% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 5.01 | 5.04 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 42 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.4% | 11.4% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 5.05 | 5.12 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 58 | 0 | 61 | 257 | 40 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.5% | 11.6% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 5.16 | 5.26 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 41 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.0% | 11.3% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 5.01 | 5.04 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 59 | 0 | 62 | 262 | 40 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.4% | 11.4% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 5.05 | 5.12 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 38 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.5% | 11.6% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 5.16 | 5.26 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 240 | 0 | 254 | 1067 | 158 | 123 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.8% | 11.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 4.75 | 4.66 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 189 | 0 | 200 | 841 | 124 | 97 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.8% | 11.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 4.75 | 4.66 | +1.7 | ||
| Career | — | 143 | 42 | 373 | 1597 | 267 | 132 | 36 | 29% | 2.6 | 16.7% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 2.2% | 3.84 | 3.97 | +6.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 77 | 23 | 200 | 856 | 143 | 71 | 19 | 29% | 2.6 | 16.7% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 2.2% | 3.84 | 3.97 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Davila (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.13 | 14.9% | 11.0% | 2.7% | — | 5.14 | 15.3% | 3.9% | 194 | +0.01 | — | — | — |
| Josh Zeid R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.21 | 16.6% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .302 | 5.16 | 16.9% | 5.7% | 194 | +0.95 | 4.21 | 265 | 86 |
| Casey Coleman R 2027 · 4.22 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.22 | 12.6% | 11.4% | 1.3% | .349 | 4.18 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 146 | -0.04 | 2.86 | 306 | 85 |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 83 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 83 |
| Julian Arballo R 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.47 | 15.1% | 13.8% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.38 | 12.6% | 0.6% | 116 | -1.09 | 4.28 | 214 | 81 |
| Kyle McMyne R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.79 | 12.5% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 181 | 80 |
| Dustin Antolin R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.36 | 16.2% | 14.4% | 1.5% | .368 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.90 | 159 | 80 |
| Fernando Cruz R 2024 · 5.41 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.41 | 15.6% | 12.2% | 3.8% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.52 | 356 | 79 |
| Edison Frias R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.15 | 13.0% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 279 | 79 |
| Chris Beck R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.83 | 17.4% | 12.2% | 3.0% | .305 | 5.33 | 18.1% | 9.3% | 41 | +0.50 | 3.11 | 313 | 79 |
| Stephen Johnson R 2024 · 5.44 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.44 | 16.7% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 141 | 79 |
| Mike Adams R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.26 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 4.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 109 | 79 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2025 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 79 |
| Gonzalez Germen R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.11 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .296 | 3.74 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 54 | -0.37 | 3.74 | 146 | 78 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.15 | 16.4% | 9.4% | 2.3% | .297 | 4.10 | 22.9% | 12.0% | 293 | -0.05 | 3.33 | 556 | 78 |
| David Goforth R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.74 | 14.5% | 12.8% | 2.3% | .333 | 4.50 | 13.9% | 4.6% | 122 | -0.24 | 3.92 | 256 | 78 |
| Mark Peterson R 2025 · 4.84 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.84 | 13.7% | 11.9% | 2.5% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.62 | 185 | 78 |
| Alex Caldera R 2028 · 5.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.56 | 10.4% | 13.1% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.61 | 11.9% | 0.8% | 84 | -0.95 | 4.61 | 120 | 78 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.25 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 4.4% | .307 | 3.44 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.81 | 3.32 | 227 | 78 |
| Connor Johnstone R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.22 | 12.2% | 8.2% | 2.0% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 319 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 66 | 15.2% | 11.3% | 1.06 | 5.09 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |