Zach Root — OGILVIE

Zach Root P Great Lakes Loons

Age 22 LHP 6'2" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.5 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 23 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98107vR 115

ERA4.29

FIP4.29

K%23.5%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%14.4%

ROS IP24

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$32M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF—55

CTRL—55

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$10M	+$9M
2030	Arb-1	$6M	+1.6	$9M	+$6M
2031	Arb-2	$10M	+1.6	$9M	+$3M
2032	Arb-3	$13M	+1.4	$7M	+$0.3M
Totals		$31M		$45M	+$27M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	19	19	76	321	103	36	5	100%	4.0	25.0%	12.8%	12.2%	1.9%	3.54	3.64	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	19	19	76	321	103	36	5	100%	4.0	25.0%	12.8%	12.2%	1.9%	3.54	3.64	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	LAD	15	15	60	247	79	29	1	100%	4.0	32.0%	11.7%	20.2%	0.4%	2.40	2.11	—
2026	22	AA RAW	LAD	4	4	16	74	24	7	4	100%	4.1	32.4%	9.5%	23.0%	5.4%	7.71	4.53	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	LAD	26	26	138	582	140	50	17	100%	5.3	24.1%	8.6%	15.5%	2.9%	4.20	4.15	+1.2
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAD	30	30	167	706	173	58	21	100%	5.6	24.5%	8.3%	16.2%	2.9%	4.12	4.06	+1.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAD	30	30	175	739	183	60	21	100%	5.8	24.8%	8.1%	16.6%	2.9%	4.06	4.01	+1.9
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAD	29	29	175	739	184	60	21	100%	6.0	24.9%	8.1%	16.8%	2.9%	4.03	4.00	+1.9
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAD	29	29	172	728	181	59	22	100%	5.9	24.9%	8.1%	16.7%	3.0%	4.03	4.03	+1.8
2032	28	MLB MLE	LAD	28	28	167	706	175	59	22	100%	6.0	24.8%	8.3%	16.5%	3.1%	4.08	4.12	+1.5
2033	29	MLB MLE	LAD	27	27	160	674	165	57	22	100%	5.9	24.5%	8.5%	16.0%	3.2%	4.18	4.25	+1.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	LAD	25	25	150	634	153	56	22	100%	6.0	24.2%	8.8%	15.3%	3.4%	4.33	4.43	+0.8
2035	31	MLB MLE	LAD	23	23	140	591	140	54	21	100%	6.1	23.8%	9.2%	14.6%	3.6%	4.51	4.63	+0.4
2036	32	MLB MLE	LAD	22	22	130	547	127	52	21	100%	5.9	23.3%	9.6%	13.7%	3.9%	4.72	4.86	+0.1
2037	33	MLB MLE	LAD	20	20	119	502	114	50	21	100%	5.9	22.8%	10.0%	12.8%	4.2%	4.95	5.11	-0.3
2027	23	MLB CTX	LAD	13	13	68	287	69	25	9	100%	5.2	24.1%	8.6%	15.5%	3.1%	4.27	4.22	+0.6
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAD	21	21	117	494	121	41	15	100%	5.6	24.5%	8.3%	16.2%	3.0%	4.19	4.13	+1.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAD	24	24	142	600	148	49	18	100%	5.9	24.8%	8.1%	16.6%	3.0%	4.13	4.08	+1.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAD	26	26	153	646	161	52	20	100%	5.9	24.9%	8.1%	16.8%	3.0%	4.10	4.07	+1.6
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAD	26	26	156	659	164	54	20	100%	6.0	24.9%	8.1%	16.7%	3.1%	4.10	4.10	+1.6
2032	28	MLB CTX	LAD	26	26	154	650	161	54	21	100%	5.9	24.8%	8.3%	16.5%	3.2%	4.15	4.19	+1.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	LAD	25	25	149	629	154	54	21	100%	6.0	24.5%	8.5%	16.0%	3.3%	4.25	4.32	+1.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	LAD	24	24	141	595	144	53	21	100%	5.9	24.2%	8.8%	15.3%	3.6%	4.41	4.51	+0.8
2035	31	MLB CTX	LAD	22	22	133	562	133	51	21	100%	6.0	23.8%	9.2%	14.6%	3.8%	4.59	4.71	+0.4
2036	32	MLB CTX	LAD	20	20	123	519	121	50	21	100%	6.2	23.3%	9.6%	13.7%	4.0%	4.81	4.95	+0.1
2037	33	MLB CTX	LAD	19	19	113	477	109	48	21	100%	5.9	22.8%	10.0%	12.8%	4.3%	5.05	5.21	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		245	245	1448	6113	1484	528	208	100%	5.9	24.3%	8.6%	15.6%	3.4%	4.35	4.01	+15.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	205	73	29	100%	5.9	24.3%	8.6%	15.6%	3.4%	4.35	4.01	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		19	19	76	321	80	41	6	100%	4.0	25.0%	12.8%	12.2%	1.9%	3.54	3.64	+12.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	50	200	841	210	108	16	100%	4.0	25.0%	12.8%	12.2%	1.9%	3.54	3.64	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zach Root (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.29	23.5%	9.1%	3.0%	—	4.07	24.5%	16.2%	480	-0.22	—	—	—
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.11	495	83
Riley Frey L 2023 · 4.00 FIP	21	SP	4.00	22.5%	7.5%	3.4%	.417	4.47	18.0%	10.8%	184	+0.47	3.87	202	82
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.36	19.1%	13.6%	214	-0.05	3.32	277	82
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	80
Moises Brito L 2023 · 3.16 FIP	21	SP	3.16	22.9%	8.7%	1.6%	.250	7.76	18.0%	-2.5%	21	+4.60	2.53	106	80
Andre Davis L 2016 · 4.14 FIP	22	SP	4.14	19.3%	5.4%	3.6%	.320	4.51	17.0%	8.8%	98	+0.37	4.14	154	79
Evan Shawver L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	18.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.289	4.73	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.41	3.92	278	78
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	77
Adam Seminaris L 2021 · 3.94 FIP	22	SP	3.94	22.7%	8.3%	3.1%	.357	3.75	18.2%	9.3%	230	-0.19	3.00	577	77
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	76
Jordan Wicks L 2022 · 3.83 FIP	22	SP	3.83	23.5%	7.9%	3.1%	.329	4.15	20.6%	12.8%	278	+0.32	2.97	469	75
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.97	18.2%	8.3%	358	+0.70	3.57	534	75
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	74
Austin Warner L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	23	SP	4.01	18.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.291	4.43	17.6%	9.4%	284	+0.42	3.81	491	74
Jacob Latz L 2019 · 3.35 FIP	23	SP	3.35	23.0%	12.6%	1.1%	.222	5.12	22.8%	10.7%	149	+1.77	2.26	473	74
Michel Gelabert L 2019 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	18.7%	12.1%	2.4%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	107	73
Mitch Bratt L 2023 · 3.89 FIP	20	SP	3.89	21.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.321	3.81	20.7%	13.5%	335	-0.08	3.44	476	73
Carson Whisenhunt L 2023 · 3.11 FIP	22	SP	3.11	27.4%	11.1%	1.7%	.270	4.28	19.7%	10.4%	353	+1.17	3.11	411	73
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.7%	17.4%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	72
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.6	143	24.3%	8.6%	1.25	4.26
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12