Zach Root

P Great Lakes Loons

Age 23 LHP 6'2" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.9 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP45OGV rank#127ETA2028MLB%4%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	19	19	76	3.54	2.67	32.1%	11.2%	—	K 25.0% · BB 12.8% · FIP 3.64
2027PROJ	23	MLBLAD	1	1	4	4.31	4.31	23.6%	9.6%	0.1
2028PROJ45% MLB	24	MLBLAD	8	8	47	4.31	4.26	24.0%	9.0%	0.7
2029PROJ68% MLB	25	MLBLAD	13	13	75	4.25	4.20	24.3%	8.7%	1.1

Next 3 projected WAR 1.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$3M2032Arb-2$5M2033Arb-3$6M

Career WAR0.1 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 14, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 74%

CompsAnthony Veneziano (age 23) · Nick Zwack (age 23) · Connelly Early (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99107vR 115

ERA4.31

FIP4.31

K%23.6%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%14.0%

Proj IP95

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 95 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$39M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$9M	+$8M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+1.4	$8M	+$6M
2032	Arb-2	$5M	+1.3	$7M	+$4M
2033	Arb-3	$6M	+1.1	$6M	+$2M
Totals		$17M		$40M	+$29M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	76	321	103	36	5	100%	4.0	25.0%	12.8%	12.2%	1.9%	3.54	3.64	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	76	321	103	36	5	100%	4.0	25.0%	12.8%	12.2%	1.9%	3.54	3.64	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	76	321	103	36	5	100%	4.0	32.1%	11.2%	20.9%	1.6%	3.54	2.67	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	LAD	1	1	4	17	4	2	0	100%	4.0	23.6%	9.6%	14.0%	2.9%	4.31	4.31	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAD	19	19	105	442	106	40	13	100%	5.5	24.0%	9.0%	15.0%	2.9%	4.24	4.19	+1.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAD	19	19	111	468	114	41	14	100%	5.8	24.3%	8.7%	15.5%	2.9%	4.18	4.13	+1.7
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAD	20	20	117	495	121	43	14	100%	5.9	24.3%	8.6%	15.7%	2.9%	4.14	4.11	+1.8
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAD	19	19	114	482	117	42	14	100%	6.0	24.3%	8.7%	15.6%	3.0%	4.15	4.16	+1.7
2032	28	MLB MLE	LAD	18	18	109	461	111	41	14	100%	6.1	24.1%	8.8%	15.3%	3.1%	4.20	4.24	+1.5
2033	29	MLB MLE	LAD	17	17	102	430	103	39	14	100%	6.0	23.9%	9.1%	14.8%	3.2%	4.30	4.37	+1.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	LAD	15	15	92	390	92	37	13	100%	6.2	23.6%	9.4%	14.2%	3.4%	4.45	4.55	+0.9
2035	31	MLB MLE	LAD	14	14	82	348	81	34	13	100%	5.9	23.2%	9.7%	13.4%	3.6%	4.63	4.75	+0.6
2036	32	MLB MLE	LAD	12	12	72	306	70	31	12	100%	6.0	22.7%	10.1%	12.6%	3.9%	4.84	4.98	+0.3
2037	33	MLB MLE	LAD	11	11	63	266	59	28	11	100%	5.7	22.2%	10.6%	11.6%	4.2%	5.07	5.23	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	47	198	48	18	6	100%	5.9	24.0%	9.0%	15.0%	3.0%	4.31	4.26	+0.7
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAD	13	13	75	317	77	28	10	100%	5.8	24.3%	8.7%	15.5%	3.0%	4.25	4.20	+1.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAD	16	16	94	397	97	34	12	100%	5.9	24.3%	8.6%	15.7%	3.0%	4.21	4.18	+1.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAD	16	16	98	414	100	36	13	100%	6.1	24.3%	8.7%	15.6%	3.1%	4.22	4.23	+1.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	LAD	16	16	97	410	99	36	13	100%	6.1	24.1%	8.8%	15.3%	3.2%	4.27	4.31	+1.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	LAD	16	16	93	393	94	36	13	100%	5.8	23.9%	9.1%	14.8%	3.3%	4.37	4.44	+1.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	LAD	14	14	85	359	85	34	13	100%	6.1	23.6%	9.4%	14.2%	3.6%	4.53	4.63	+0.8
2035	31	MLB CTX	LAD	13	13	77	325	75	32	12	100%	5.9	23.2%	9.7%	13.4%	3.8%	4.71	4.83	+0.6
2036	32	MLB CTX	LAD	11	11	68	287	65	29	12	100%	6.2	22.7%	10.1%	12.6%	4.1%	4.93	5.07	+0.3
2037	33	MLB CTX	LAD	10	10	60	253	56	27	11	100%	6.0	22.2%	10.6%	11.6%	4.3%	5.17	5.33	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		133	133	794	3353	796	309	114	100%	6.0	23.7%	9.2%	14.5%	3.4%	4.46	4.13	+11.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	200	78	29	100%	6.0	23.7%	9.2%	14.5%	3.4%	4.46	4.13	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		19	19	76	321	80	41	6	100%	4.0	25.0%	12.8%	12.2%	1.9%	3.54	3.64	+11.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	50	200	841	210	108	16	100%	4.0	25.0%	12.8%	12.2%	1.9%	3.54	3.64	+2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Great Lakes Loons · 60 IPFIP 2.11 → 3.01 (+0.90)K% 32.0% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.98%	—	×0.770	24.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.74%	—	×1.150	13.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.40%	÷1.000	×1.250	0.51%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.11 → 3.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AATulsa Drillers · 16 IPFIP 4.53 → 5.76 (+1.23)K% 32.4% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.43%	—	×0.810	26.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.46%	—	×1.100	10.41%
HR / BF /BF	5.41%	÷1.000	×1.200	6.49%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.53 → 5.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zach Root (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.14	24.2%	15.4%	333	-0.17	—	—	—
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.94	18.6%	8.6%	358	+0.67	4.18	539	91
Nick Zwack L 2022 · 3.16 FIP	23	SP	3.16	23.9%	9.3%	1.6%	.299	5.73	18.2%	8.7%	143	+2.57	3.16	292	86
Connelly Early L 2024 · 3.33 FIP	22	SP	3.33	24.1%	9.8%	1.9%	.292	3.28	26.0%	17.0%	214	-0.05	2.52	318	86
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	86
Drew Parrish L 2021 · 3.47 FIP	23	SP-	3.47	24.1%	7.9%	2.6%	.261	5.90	16.7%	7.0%	354	+2.43	3.47	522	84
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.85	18.0%	10.5%	367	-0.33	3.77	480	83
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	83
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	82
Andrew Abbott L 2022 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	26.0%	10.9%	2.0%	.336	3.91	23.7%	15.8%	468	+0.55	3.36	752	82
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.29	19.3%	13.9%	222	-0.12	3.22	285	82
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	212	82
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.26	30.7%	17.2%	124	-1.88	1.94	208	82
Joe Whitman L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP	3.89	18.6%	9.9%	2.0%	.303	3.65	19.8%	11.7%	252	-0.24	3.51	355	81
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	81
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	80
Hunter Barco L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	23.4%	10.0%	2.2%	.275	3.72	21.1%	10.0%	195	+0.11	3.29	257	80
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.8%	17.5%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	80
Tyler Thomas L 2018 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP	3.39	19.3%	7.3%	1.8%	.255	3.55	24.2%	14.6%	54	+0.16	2.66	279	79
Ken Waldichuk L 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	28.7%	12.5%	3.3%	.279	4.29	24.1%	14.1%	271	+0.23	3.51	432	79
Robby Ahlstrom L 2022 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	20.1%	9.0%	3.8%	.349	4.04	21.9%	8.9%	175	-0.58	3.79	332	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.3	97	23.8%	9.2%	1.24	4.36
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02
Bud Norris ('18)	6.1	122	21.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.45
Skip Lockwood ('69-'80, 11 WAR*)	6.2	103	22.5%*	9.1%*	1.06*	4.28*
Bobby Bolin ('61-'73, 12 WAR*)	7.9	121	22.7%*	9.6%*	1.33*	4.11*
Joe Hesketh ('84-'94, 10 WAR*)	4.8	87	23.2%*	8.8%*	1.07*	3.95*
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20