Davis Polo — OGILVIE

Davis Polo P Augusta GreenJackets

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 150 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 2.3 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 39 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 101

ERA4.44

FIP4.44

K%18.8%

BB%7.2%

K-BB%11.6%

ROS IP39

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 39 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$45M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$7M	+$6M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$8M	+$7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$7M	+$7M
2032	Arb-1	$4M	+1.3	$7M	+$4M
2033	Arb-2	$7M	+1.1	$5M	+$2M
2034	Arb-3	$8M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$14M		$36M	+$26M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	10	2	20	85	26	6	1	20%	2.0	20.8%	8.8%	12.0%	1.9%	5.03	3.48	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Braves	10	2	20	85	26	6	1	20%	2.0	30.6%	7.1%	23.5%	1.2%	5.03	2.03	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	13	9	45	185	32	14	6	69%	3.5	11.8%	9.5%	2.3%	5.1%	4.40	6.09	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	13	9	45	185	32	14	6	69%	3.5	11.8%	9.5%	2.3%	5.1%	4.40	6.09	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	FCL Braves	13	9	45	185	32	14	6	69%	3.5	17.3%	7.6%	9.7%	3.2%	4.40	4.34	—
2024	19	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	15	12	59	259	53	13	5	80%	4.0	15.1%	5.9%	9.2%	2.5%	5.16	3.93	—
2024	19	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	15	12	59	259	53	13	5	80%	4.0	15.1%	5.9%	9.2%	2.5%	5.16	3.93	—
2024	19	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	15	12	59	259	53	13	5	80%	4.0	20.5%	5.0%	15.4%	1.9%	5.16	3.07	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	AA MLE	Columbus Clingstones	23	21	117	469	132	42	10	91%	5.1	19.4%	10.8%	8.6%	2.6%	3.09	4.24	—
YTD	21	AA MLE	Columbus Clingstones	23	21	117	469	132	42	10	91%	5.1	19.4%	10.8%	8.6%	2.6%	3.09	4.24	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	ATL	20	18	100	404	106	37	8	90%	5.0	26.2%	9.2%	17.1%	2.0%	3.25	3.13	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	ATL	2	2	11	43	18	4	2	100%	5.5	41.9%	9.3%	32.6%	4.7%	3.27	3.30	—
2026	21	AA RAW	ATL	1	1	6	22	8	1	0	100%	6.0	36.4%	4.5%	31.8%	0.0%	0.00	0.61	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	ATL	22	22	120	507	103	35	15	100%	5.5	20.3%	6.9%	13.5%	2.9%	4.31	4.24	+0.9
2028	23	MLB MLE	ATL	23	23	124	526	112	35	15	100%	5.4	21.3%	6.6%	14.7%	2.9%	4.18	4.10	+1.2
2029	24	MLB MLE	ATL	23	23	128	539	118	35	15	100%	5.5	21.9%	6.4%	15.4%	2.9%	4.09	4.02	+1.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	ATL	22	22	129	546	121	35	16	100%	5.9	22.3%	6.3%	15.9%	2.8%	4.02	3.97	+1.4
2031	26	MLB MLE	ATL	22	22	129	546	123	34	16	100%	5.9	22.5%	6.3%	16.2%	2.8%	3.98	3.95	+1.5
2032	27	MLB MLE	ATL	21	21	127	537	121	34	16	100%	6.1	22.4%	6.4%	16.1%	2.9%	3.98	3.98	+1.4
2033	28	MLB MLE	ATL	21	21	124	521	116	34	16	100%	5.9	22.3%	6.5%	15.8%	3.0%	4.03	4.07	+1.2
2034	29	MLB MLE	ATL	20	20	118	498	110	34	16	100%	5.9	22.1%	6.8%	15.3%	3.1%	4.13	4.20	+1.0
2035	30	MLB MLE	ATL	18	18	111	468	102	33	16	100%	6.2	21.7%	7.0%	14.7%	3.3%	4.28	4.38	+0.7
2036	31	MLB MLE	ATL	17	17	103	436	93	32	16	100%	6.1	21.3%	7.4%	13.9%	3.6%	4.46	4.58	+0.4
2037	32	MLB MLE	ATL	16	16	96	404	84	31	15	100%	6.0	20.9%	7.8%	13.1%	3.8%	4.67	4.80	+0.1
2038	33	MLB MLE	ATL	15	15	88	370	76	31	15	100%	5.8	20.4%	8.2%	12.1%	4.1%	4.90	5.05	-0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	ATL	11	11	59	249	51	17	7	100%	5.4	20.3%	6.9%	13.5%	2.9%	4.31	4.24	+0.5
2028	23	MLB CTX	ATL	17	17	91	384	82	25	11	100%	5.4	21.3%	6.6%	14.7%	2.9%	4.18	4.10	+0.9
2029	24	MLB CTX	ATL	19	19	106	448	98	29	13	100%	5.6	21.9%	6.4%	15.4%	2.9%	4.09	4.02	+1.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	ATL	19	19	114	481	107	31	14	100%	6.0	22.3%	6.3%	15.9%	2.8%	4.02	3.97	+1.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	ATL	20	20	118	498	112	31	14	100%	5.9	22.5%	6.3%	16.2%	2.8%	3.98	3.95	+1.3
2032	27	MLB CTX	ATL	20	20	118	498	112	32	14	100%	5.9	22.4%	6.4%	16.1%	2.9%	3.98	3.98	+1.3
2033	28	MLB CTX	ATL	19	19	116	490	109	32	15	100%	6.1	22.3%	6.5%	15.8%	3.0%	4.03	4.07	+1.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	ATL	19	19	112	473	104	32	15	100%	5.9	22.1%	6.8%	15.3%	3.1%	4.13	4.20	+0.9
2035	30	MLB CTX	ATL	18	18	105	443	96	31	15	100%	5.8	21.7%	7.0%	14.7%	3.3%	4.28	4.38	+0.6
2036	31	MLB CTX	ATL	16	16	98	414	88	31	15	100%	6.1	21.3%	7.4%	13.9%	3.6%	4.46	4.58	+0.4
2037	32	MLB CTX	ATL	15	15	91	384	80	30	15	100%	6.1	20.9%	7.8%	13.1%	3.8%	4.67	4.80	+0.1
2038	33	MLB CTX	ATL	14	14	83	350	71	29	14	100%	5.9	20.4%	8.2%	12.1%	4.1%	4.90	5.05	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		206	206	1211	5112	1111	350	162	100%	5.9	21.7%	6.8%	14.9%	3.2%	4.22	3.87	+15.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	184	58	27	100%	5.9	21.7%	6.8%	14.9%	3.2%	4.22	3.87	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		61	44	241	998	170	91	29	72%	3.9	17.0%	9.1%	7.9%	3.0%	4.00	4.44	+10.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	37	200	829	141	76	25	72%	3.9	17.0%	9.1%	7.9%	3.0%	4.00	4.44	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Davis Polo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.44	18.8%	7.2%	3.0%	—	4.12	21.2%	14.6%	372	-0.32	—	—	—
Peyton Remy R 2018 · 3.57 FIP	21	SP-	3.57	19.4%	7.9%	2.0%	.280	4.75	16.3%	5.2%	140	+1.18	3.57	286	86
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	85
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	85
Jarrod Cande R 2022 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP-	4.31	19.1%	7.3%	3.5%	.330	4.94	18.1%	9.1%	212	+0.63	4.31	304	85
Jesus Lugo R 2019 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP-	3.79	17.8%	8.1%	2.1%	.243	6.08	19.8%	10.5%	45	+2.29	3.79	113	85
Hansel Paulino R 2017 · 4.38 FIP	21	SP-	4.38	15.8%	7.5%	3.0%	.302	4.45	18.5%	10.7%	18	+0.07	2.98	156	84
Lucas Long R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP-	4.84	14.5%	5.9%	4.0%	.300	3.94	15.0%	9.1%	386	-0.90	3.42	441	84
Jack Perkins R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	21	SP-	4.34	13.6%	5.4%	3.1%	.312	4.91	16.4%	7.5%	156	+0.57	4.34	176	83
Matt Eckelman R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP	4.30	15.6%	4.7%	3.5%	.265	4.44	16.3%	5.4%	169	+0.14	4.07	386	83
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	83
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	83
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	83
Leovanny Rodriguez R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	21	SP-	3.99	15.7%	5.1%	2.9%	.308	4.24	19.6%	10.3%	156	+0.25	3.12	281	83
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	82
Geoffrey Bramblett R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	21	SP	3.75	15.1%	5.8%	2.2%	.223	5.35	11.3%	1.5%	81	+1.60	3.75	130	82
Tommy Bergjans R 2015 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP	3.39	17.2%	8.1%	1.3%	.327	4.36	15.7%	9.7%	268	+0.97	3.39	322	82
Andrew Cabezas R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	21	SP-	4.59	16.1%	9.4%	3.0%	.210	4.70	16.7%	6.9%	185	+0.11	4.16	300	81
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	81
Pedro Barrios R 2018 · 4.31 FIP	19	SP	4.31	14.7%	6.7%	2.9%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	159	80
Cedric De Grandpre R 2023 · 3.38 FIP	21	SP	3.38	18.2%	7.0%	1.7%	.327	4.17	22.9%	8.9%	177	+0.79	3.38	264	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.2	110	21.6%	6.8%	1.21	4.23
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17