Davis Polo

P Augusta GreenJackets

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 150 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.2 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP40OGV rank#154ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	18	ROKATL	13	9	45	4.40	4.34	17.3%	7.6%	—	K 11.8% · BB 9.5% · FIP 6.09
2024	19	AATL	15	12	59	5.16	3.07	20.5%	5.0%	—	K 15.1% · BB 5.9% · FIP 3.93
2026	21	MIX4 levels	25	23	129	3.00	3.23	27.0%	9.1%	—	K 19.6% · BB 10.6% · FIP 4.33
2027PROJ	22	MLBATL	—	—	0	4.71	4.71	19.5%	9.7%	—
2028PROJ35% MLB	23	MLBATL	9	9	52	4.55	4.48	20.7%	8.8%	0.6
2029PROJ54% MLB	24	MLBATL	14	14	81	4.42	4.34	21.4%	8.3%	1.0

Next 3 projected WAR 1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$3M2033Arb-2$4M2034Arb-3$5M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 8.5, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 86%

CompsJack Wenninger (age 22) · Adrian Houser (age 22) · Kyle Lloyd (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 106

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%19.5%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%9.8%

Proj IP149

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 149 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$41M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$6M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$6M	+$6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$7M	+$7M
2032	Arb-1	$3M	+1.2	$7M	+$5M
2033	Arb-2	$4M	+1.1	$6M	+$3M
2034	Arb-3	$5M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$10M		$35M	+$27M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	10	2	20	85	26	6	1	20%	2.0	20.8%	8.8%	12.0%	1.9%	5.03	3.48	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Braves	10	2	20	85	26	6	1	20%	2.0	30.6%	7.1%	23.5%	1.2%	5.03	2.03	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	13	9	45	185	32	14	6	69%	3.5	11.8%	9.5%	2.3%	5.1%	4.40	6.09	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	FCL Braves	13	9	45	185	32	14	6	69%	3.5	17.3%	7.6%	9.7%	3.2%	4.40	4.34	—
2024	19	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	15	12	59	259	53	13	5	80%	4.0	15.1%	5.9%	9.2%	2.5%	5.16	3.93	—
2024	19	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	15	12	59	259	53	13	5	80%	4.0	15.1%	5.9%	9.2%	2.5%	5.16	3.93	—
2024	19	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	15	12	59	259	53	13	5	80%	4.0	20.5%	5.0%	15.4%	1.9%	5.16	3.07	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	4 levels	25	23	129	519	140	47	12	92%	5.2	19.6%	10.6%	9.0%	2.8%	3.00	4.33	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	4 levels	25	23	129	519	140	47	12	92%	5.2	19.6%	10.6%	9.0%	2.8%	3.00	4.33	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	4 levels	25	23	129	519	140	47	12	92%	5.2	27.0%	9.1%	17.9%	2.3%	3.00	3.23	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	ATL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.5%	9.7%	9.8%	3.0%	4.71	4.71	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	ATL	27	27	149	629	130	56	19	100%	5.5	20.7%	8.8%	11.8%	3.0%	4.55	4.48	+1.6
2029	24	MLB MLE	ATL	27	27	149	629	135	53	18	100%	5.5	21.4%	8.3%	13.0%	2.9%	4.42	4.34	+1.9
2030	25	MLB MLE	ATL	19	19	113	477	104	39	14	100%	5.9	21.8%	8.1%	13.7%	2.9%	4.33	4.27	+1.5
2031	26	MLB MLE	ATL	19	19	112	475	104	38	14	100%	5.9	22.0%	8.0%	14.0%	2.9%	4.28	4.24	+1.5
2032	27	MLB MLE	ATL	18	18	110	463	102	37	14	100%	6.1	22.0%	8.1%	13.9%	3.0%	4.28	4.28	+1.4
2033	28	MLB MLE	ATL	17	17	105	442	97	36	14	100%	6.2	21.9%	8.2%	13.6%	3.1%	4.33	4.36	+1.3
2034	29	MLB MLE	ATL	16	16	97	411	89	35	13	100%	6.1	21.6%	8.5%	13.2%	3.2%	4.43	4.49	+1.0
2035	30	MLB MLE	ATL	15	15	88	373	79	33	13	100%	5.9	21.3%	8.8%	12.5%	3.4%	4.58	4.67	+0.7
2036	31	MLB MLE	ATL	13	13	79	334	70	31	12	100%	6.1	20.9%	9.1%	11.8%	3.6%	4.76	4.87	+0.5
2037	32	MLB MLE	ATL	12	12	70	296	61	28	12	100%	5.9	20.4%	9.5%	10.9%	3.9%	4.96	5.10	+0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	ATL	9	9	52	220	45	19	6	100%	5.8	20.7%	8.8%	11.8%	3.0%	4.55	4.48	+0.6
2029	24	MLB CTX	ATL	14	14	81	342	73	29	10	100%	5.8	21.4%	8.3%	13.0%	2.9%	4.42	4.34	+1.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	ATL	13	13	76	321	70	26	9	100%	5.8	21.8%	8.1%	13.7%	2.9%	4.33	4.27	+1.0
2031	26	MLB CTX	ATL	14	14	86	363	80	29	11	100%	6.1	22.0%	8.0%	14.0%	2.9%	4.28	4.24	+1.2
2032	27	MLB CTX	ATL	15	15	89	376	83	30	11	100%	5.9	22.0%	8.1%	13.9%	3.0%	4.28	4.28	+1.2
2033	28	MLB CTX	ATL	15	15	89	376	82	31	12	100%	5.9	21.9%	8.2%	13.6%	3.1%	4.33	4.36	+1.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	ATL	14	14	85	359	78	30	12	100%	6.1	21.6%	8.5%	13.2%	3.2%	4.43	4.49	+0.9
2035	30	MLB CTX	ATL	13	13	79	334	71	29	11	100%	6.1	21.3%	8.8%	12.5%	3.4%	4.58	4.67	+0.7
2036	31	MLB CTX	ATL	12	12	72	304	63	28	11	100%	6.0	20.9%	9.1%	11.8%	3.6%	4.76	4.87	+0.4
2037	32	MLB CTX	ATL	11	11	64	270	55	26	11	100%	5.8	20.4%	9.5%	10.9%	3.9%	4.96	5.10	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		131	131	772	3258	699	277	104	100%	5.9	21.5%	8.5%	13.0%	3.2%	4.47	4.11	+11.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	181	72	27	100%	5.9	21.5%	8.5%	13.0%	3.2%	4.47	4.11	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		63	46	253	1048	180	95	32	73%	4.0	17.2%	9.1%	8.1%	3.1%	3.91	4.48	+11.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	36	200	828	143	75	25	73%	4.0	17.2%	9.1%	8.1%	3.1%	3.91	4.48	+2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAugusta GreenJackets · 100 IPFIP 3.13 → 4.24 (+1.11)K% 26.2% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.24%	—	×0.740	19.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.16%	—	×1.180	10.81%
HR / BF /BF	1.98%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.57%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.13 → 4.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAColumbus Clingstones · 12 IPFIP 4.11 → 5.07 (+0.96)K% 26.0% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.00%	—	×0.810	21.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×1.100	8.80%
HR / BF /BF	4.00%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.80%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.11 → 5.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Rome Emperors · 11 IPFIP 3.30 → 4.92 (+1.63)K% 41.9% → 32.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	41.86%	—	×0.770	32.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.30%	—	×1.150	10.70%
HR / BF /BF	4.65%	÷1.000	×1.250	5.81%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.30 → 4.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 6 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.15 (+0.05)K% 13.6% → 11.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.64%	—	×0.860	11.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×0.900	8.18%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAugusta GreenJackets · 59 IPFIP 3.07 → 3.93 (+0.87)K% 20.5% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.46%	—	×0.740	15.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.02%	—	×1.180	5.92%
HR / BF /BF	1.93%	÷1.010	×1.300	2.48%

Result: FIP 3.07 → 3.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Braves · 45 IPFIP 4.38 → 6.09 (+1.72)K% 17.3% → 11.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.30%	—	×0.680	11.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.57%	—	×1.250	9.46%
HR / BF /BF	3.24%	÷0.893	×1.400	5.08%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 79).

Result: FIP 4.38 → 6.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL Braves · 20 IPFIP 2.06 → 3.48 (+1.43)K% 30.6% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.59%	—	×0.680	20.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.06%	—	×1.250	8.82%
HR / BF /BF	1.18%	÷0.885	×1.400	1.86%

Result: FIP 2.06 → 3.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Davis Polo (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.37	21.2%	12.8%	411	-0.34	—	—	—
Jack Wenninger R 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP-	4.33	20.9%	9.3%	3.3%	.309	4.29	21.1%	11.1%	251	-0.04	3.90	366	86
Adrian Houser R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	22	SP-	4.38	16.6%	8.8%	2.9%	.298	3.90	15.5%	7.4%	163	-0.48	3.45	1,221	85
Kyle Lloyd R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	24	SP-	4.03	18.3%	8.1%	2.7%	.327	3.80	17.3%	8.9%	324	-0.23	3.50	572	85
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.19	20.3%	11.0%	243	-0.06	3.94	353	84
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	84
Nick Sinacola R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP-	4.44	19.3%	10.4%	3.0%	.335	4.05	18.2%	10.0%	254	-0.39	3.56	357	84
Buck Farmer R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	24	SP-	4.41	16.4%	7.4%	3.2%	.307	4.01	19.6%	10.9%	370	-0.40	3.16	907	84
Jordan Jackson R 2022 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP	4.15	16.8%	9.7%	2.2%	.323	5.51	13.1%	1.7%	74	+1.36	4.15	193	83
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	83
Michael Lorenzen R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	14.7%	8.7%	2.9%	.289	3.56	20.1%	12.0%	214	-1.02	3.17	1,181	82
Kyle Wright R 2018 · 3.70 FIP	22	SP	3.70	19.0%	9.7%	1.8%	.286	4.03	20.8%	11.7%	307	+0.33	3.32	669	82
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	82
Jackson Nezuh R 2024 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP-	3.89	22.5%	11.2%	2.3%	.290	4.40	21.3%	10.9%	176	+0.51	3.89	296	81
Carson LaRue R 2018 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	15.5%	9.1%	3.4%	.281	5.17	16.0%	6.7%	124	+0.34	3.84	360	81
Max Gamboa R 2018 · 3.99 FIP	22	SP-	3.99	17.3%	9.5%	2.1%	.334	3.99	26.5%	7.7%	61	+0.00	3.99	162	81
Colton Eastman R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP-	4.32	19.4%	7.9%	3.4%	.304	4.95	17.0%	2.8%	155	+0.63	4.17	349	81
Miguel Almonte R 2015 · 3.88 FIP	22	SP-	3.88	18.0%	10.1%	1.8%	.300	4.41	19.4%	7.9%	143	+0.53	3.06	247	81
Mitch Spence R 2021 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP	4.12	20.3%	9.5%	2.8%	.314	4.51	19.0%	11.8%	445	+0.39	4.12	747	81
Logan Martin R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	140	+0.63	3.95	242	80
Edison Frias R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	24	SP-	4.90	18.1%	7.5%	4.3%	.318	4.19	13.7%	3.5%	166	-0.71	4.14	279	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.1	111	21.2%	8.6%	1.21	4.50
Bud Norris ('18)	6.1	122	21.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.45
Mark Leiter ('90-'01, 5 WAR*)	5.9	118	20.7%*	7.8%*	1.36*	4.61*
Larry McWilliams ('78-'90, 10 WAR*)	7.8	130	19.0%*	8.1%*	1.24*	4.56*
Derek Holland ('21)	7.3	113	19.7%	8.4%	1.35	4.62
Bob Shirley ('77-'87, 5 WAR*)	7.2	130	18.5%*	8.9%*	1.12*	4.43*
Travis Wood ('17)	5.0	124	18.9%	8.7%	1.09	4.26