Davis Polo — OGILVIE

Davis Polo P Augusta GreenJackets

+0.4 WAR

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 150 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.8 · 2031

ERA4.36

FIP4.36

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.0%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%13.3%

IP56

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.8peak

2031

K†5560

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Braves	10	2	20	85	26	6	1	20.8%	8.8%	2.0%	5.03	3.57	+0.3
2023	18	ROK	FCL Braves	13	9	45	185	32	14	6	11.8%	9.5%	5.5%	4.40	6.33	-0.7
2024	19	A	Augusta GreenJackets	15	12	59	259	53	13	5	15.1%	5.9%	2.5%	5.16	3.92	+0.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	A	Augusta GreenJackets	2	0	7	28	8	3	0	—	—	—	1.29	—	—
ROS	21	MLB	ATL	56	—	56	236	52	20	7	22.0%	8.7%	3.0%	4.36	4.36	+0.4
2026 Total	21	MLB	ATL	—	—	63	264	60	23	7	22.7%	8.9%	2.7%	4.02	3.87	+0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	22	MLB	ATL	59	—	59	247	57	21	7	23.0%	8.3%	2.9%	4.26	4.19	+0.5
2028	23	MLB	ATL	11	11	61	257	61	21	7	23.8%	8.1%	2.9%	4.15	4.08	+0.6
2029	24	MLB	ATL	11	11	62	263	64	21	8	24.3%	7.9%	2.9%	4.06	4.00	+0.7
2030	25	MLB	ATL	11	11	63	266	66	21	8	24.7%	7.8%	2.9%	4.00	3.95	+0.7
2031	26	MLB	ATL	11	11	63	266	66	21	8	24.9%	7.8%	2.9%	3.96	3.93	+0.7
2032	27	MLB	ATL	11	11	63	264	66	21	8	24.9%	7.8%	2.9%	3.95	3.94	+0.7
2033	28	MLB	ATL	11	11	62	261	65	20	8	24.9%	7.8%	2.9%	3.96	3.96	+0.7
2034	29	MLB	ATL	11	11	60	255	63	20	7	24.7%	7.9%	2.9%	3.99	4.01	+0.6
2035	30	MLB	ATL	58	—	58	247	61	20	7	24.5%	8.0%	3.0%	4.04	4.07	+0.6
2036	31	MLB	ATL	56	—	56	239	58	19	7	24.3%	8.1%	3.1%	4.10	4.14	+0.5
2037	32	MLB	ATL	54	—	54	229	55	19	7	24.0%	8.3%	3.1%	4.18	4.23	+0.4
2038	33	MLB	ATL	52	—	52	219	52	19	7	23.7%	8.5%	3.2%	4.27	4.33	+0.4
2039	34	MLB	ATL	49	—	49	208	48	18	7	23.3%	8.7%	3.3%	4.37	4.44	+0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			40	23	131	557	87	43	18	15.6%	7.8%	3.3%	4.67	4.58	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—			61	35	200	850	133	66	27	15.6%	7.8%	3.3%	4.67	4.58	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Davis Polo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.36	22.0%	8.7%	3.0%	—	4.09	23.7%	15.6%	182	-0.27	—	—	—
David Garner R 2027 · 3.81 FIP	22	SW	3.81	21.7%	10.0%	2.3%	.282	4.52	19.8%	5.2%	98	+0.71	3.81	154	91
RJ Petit R 2027 · 4.50 FIP	22	SW	4.50	20.3%	8.4%	3.7%	.270	3.45	22.5%	12.8%	177	-1.05	3.09	231	91
Pat Gallagher R 2028 · 3.90 FIP	23	SW	3.90	21.9%	8.3%	2.9%	.284	3.50	18.7%	9.0%	167	-0.40	3.06	230	91
Peyton Remy R 2026 · 3.57 FIP	21	SW	3.57	19.4%	7.9%	2.0%	.280	4.71	16.3%	5.2%	140	+1.14	3.57	286	90
John Russell R 2027 · 3.98 FIP	22	SW	3.98	22.5%	8.5%	3.1%	.232	4.78	24.0%	11.2%	60	+0.80	3.92	158	90
Cody Laweryson R 2028 · 4.03 FIP	23	SW	4.03	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.52	21.5%	12.4%	178	-0.51	2.48	281	90
Kyle Zimmer R 2028 · 3.71 FIP	23	SW	3.71	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.53	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.82	2.08	276	89
Tanner Burns R 2027 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	22.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.292	5.40	19.5%	6.0%	244	+1.02	4.38	355	89
Brendan Collins R 2027 · 3.69 FIP	22	SW	3.69	21.8%	10.3%	2.1%	.294	3.85	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.16	3.69	122	89
Edward Escoboza R 2026 · 3.89 FIP	21	SW	3.89	21.9%	7.9%	3.0%	.321	5.42	14.9%	9.4%	36	+1.53	3.44	213	89
Sam Bragg R 2027 · 3.26 FIP	22	SW	3.26	23.2%	8.6%	1.9%	.306	3.98	15.7%	8.5%	203	+0.72	3.26	277	89
Alexis Rivero R 2026 · 3.86 FIP	21	SW	3.86	19.3%	8.7%	2.3%	.282	5.05	14.0%	3.4%	143	+1.19	3.86	280	88
Parker Curry R 2028 · 3.75 FIP	23	SW	3.75	22.5%	8.2%	2.8%	.341	4.60	18.6%	11.6%	193	+0.85	3.75	256	88
Yimmi Brasoban R 2026 · 3.90 FIP	21	SW	3.90	20.4%	10.2%	2.3%	.261	4.36	16.7%	5.3%	78	+0.46	3.33	149	88
Adam Parks R 2027 · 3.77 FIP	22	SW	3.77	21.4%	7.3%	2.8%	.356	4.10	24.1%	16.7%	64	+0.33	3.45	137	88
Curtis Taylor R 2027 · 3.97 FIP	22	SW	3.97	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.57	2.58	408	87
Alex Klonowski R 2028 · 3.58 FIP	23	SW	3.58	21.8%	9.4%	2.1%	.331	4.70	14.3%	7.1%	413	+1.12	3.58	539	87
José López R 2026 · 4.04 FIP	21	SW	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.79	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.25	3.12	543	87
Johnny Barbato R 2028 · 3.59 FIP	23	SW	3.59	21.3%	9.4%	2.0%	.284	4.24	21.6%	11.4%	167	+0.65	2.57	304	87
Jared Karros R 2027 · 4.78 FIP	22	SW	4.78	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.27	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	87

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.8	$4M	+$3M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.6	$3M	+$1M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$6M		$17M	+$11M