Michael Lorenzen
P
Colorado Rockies
+0.6
WAR
Age 34
RHP
6'1" / 210 lbs
MLB
peak 0.6 · 2026
ERA4.54
FIP4.85
xFIP4.50
SIERA4.31
K%20.2%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%12.0%
IP123
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2026
K†5050
FB Velo
p4193.9
Whiff%
p2922.3%
K%
p1013.9%
xwOBA vs
p100.373
SI (16%)
CU (14%)
CH-2.1 (21%)
SL-2.1 (16%)
FB-3.4 (35%)
CT-4.9 (13%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 33 | 27 | 156 | 680 | 102 | 59 | 21 | 14.7% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.62 | +1.2 |
| 2016 | 24 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 39 | 0 | 54 | 215 | 55 | 13 | 5 | 23.8% | 6.4% | 2.3% | 2.67 | 3.19 | +1.1 |
| 2017 | 25 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 70 | 0 | 83 | 361 | 80 | 29 | 9 | 22.2% | 8.0% | 2.3% | 4.45 | 3.50 | +1.6 |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 48 | 3 | 85 | 358 | 57 | 33 | 6 | 15.7% | 9.3% | 1.5% | 2.96 | 3.78 | +1.3 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 73 | 0 | 83 | 343 | 85 | 27 | 9 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 2.6% | 2.92 | 3.43 | +1.6 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 18 | 2 | 34 | 147 | 35 | 16 | 3 | 23.8% | 10.9% | 1.8% | 4.28 | 3.48 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 32 | 1 | 34 | 144 | 29 | 15 | 3 | 16.8% | 11.2% | 1.5% | 4.98 | 3.92 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 21 | 21 | 110 | 466 | 98 | 48 | 14 | 20.7% | 10.7% | 2.4% | 4.57 | 4.04 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 30 | 26 | 155 | 636 | 113 | 50 | 20 | 17.8% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 4.16 | +2.0 |
| 2024 | 32 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 31 | 29 | 147 | 616 | 116 | 72 | 19 | 18.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 3.68 | 4.81 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 33 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 29 | 28 | 150 | 647 | 136 | 45 | 27 | 21.0% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 4.79 | 4.53 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 5 | 4 | 17 | 93 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 14.0% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 8.10 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | CIN | 18 | 18 | 98 | 414 | 77 | 32 | 16 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 3.8% | 4.31 | 4.58 | +0.8 |
| 2026 Total | 34 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 115 | 507 | 90 | 37 | 20 | 17.7% | 7.3% | 3.9% | 4.86 | 4.64 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 18 | 18 | 101 | 425 | 74 | 33 | 17 | 17.5% | 7.8% | 3.9% | 4.97 | 5.14 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 16 | 16 | 88 | 369 | 62 | 30 | 15 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 4.0% | 5.17 | 5.30 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 429 | 141 | 1109 | 4706 | 903 | 412 | 135 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 4.16 | +14.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 77 | 25 | 200 | 849 | 163 | 74 | 24 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 4.16 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Michael Lorenzen (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.84 | 20.2% | 8.2% | 3.7% | — | 5.21 | 17.1% | 9.2% | 188 | +0.37 | — | — | — |
| Mike Pelfrey R 2025 · 5.70 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.70 | 14.5% | 10.6% | 4.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 404 | 53 |
| Matt Garza R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.57 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.03 | 365 | 53 |
| Manuel Flores R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.1% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 515 | 52 |
| Leo Medrano R 2025 · 4.34 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.34 | 11.0% | 7.3% | 2.3% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 222 | 52 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.74 | 15.2% | 8.0% | 1.7% | .262 | 4.37 | 16.2% | 8.2% | 114 | +0.63 | 3.74 | 240 | 51 |
| Jason Berken R 2024 · 4.51 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.51 | 11.5% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 219 | 51 |
| Mitch Talbot R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.81 | 13.7% | 5.6% | 2.1% | .281 | 5.01 | 13.2% | 8.9% | 59 | +1.20 | 3.81 | 162 | 51 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.76 | 18.9% | 7.2% | 4.3% | .280 | 4.47 | 15.8% | 7.7% | 134 | -0.29 | 3.71 | 393 | 49 |
| Andres Ivan Meza R 2024 · 4.35 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.35 | 11.7% | 7.7% | 2.3% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 275 | 49 |
| Michael Nix R 2025 · 4.52 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.52 | 11.9% | 11.6% | 1.8% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 234 | 48 |
| Matt Cain R 2024 · 5.07 FIP | 32 | SP- | 5.07 | 13.2% | 7.6% | 3.9% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.87 | 294 | 47 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.25 | 11.8% | 6.7% | 2.4% | .287 | 4.35 | 13.8% | 6.8% | 86 | +0.10 | 4.25 | 171 | 46 |
| Jesse Estrada R 2025 · 5.34 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.34 | 8.3% | 5.6% | 4.1% | .285 | 4.36 | 14.4% | 7.8% | 85 | -0.98 | 3.83 | 257 | 46 |
| Francisco Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.42 | 11.4% | 8.2% | 2.3% | .305 | 5.18 | 10.7% | 1.4% | 83 | +0.76 | 3.17 | 273 | 46 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2025 · 5.66 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.66 | 12.5% | 8.7% | 4.6% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 199 | 46 |
| Jorge Martinez R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.66 | 16.3% | 5.7% | 2.2% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 214 | 46 |
| Marco Carrillo R 2024 · 5.98 FIP | 32 | SP- | 5.98 | 9.9% | 9.1% | 4.7% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.13 | 194 | 45 |
| Chris Young R 2028 · 4.62 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.6% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .209 | 6.35 | 21.1% | 11.4% | 119 | +1.73 | 4.62 | 242 | 45 |
| Tiago Da Silva R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.90 | 15.0% | 7.2% | 2.1% | .365 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.16 | 287 | 45 |
| Logan Duran R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.76 | 15.3% | 8.9% | 1.5% | .299 | 3.65 | 15.5% | 6.6% | 29 | -0.11 | 3.41 | 187 | 45 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.