Michael Lorenzen
P
Colorado Rockies
Age 34
RHP
6'1" / 210 lbs
MLB
2026 ROS PROJECTION97 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130120vR 111
ERA4.30
FIP4.58
K%17.1%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%8.9%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 162 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4394.0
Whiff%
p1019.2%
K%
p1015.8%
xwOBA vs
p100.359
SI (18%)
CU (12%)
CH-2.1 (20%)
SL-2.1 (15%)
FB-3.4 (38%)
CT-4.9 (15%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 27 | 156 | 680 | 102 | 59 | 21 | 82% | 4.7 | 14.7% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.61 | +1.5 |
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 27 | 156 | 680 | 102 | 59 | 21 | 82% | 4.7 | 15.0% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.67 | +1.3 |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 54 | 215 | 55 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.8% | 6.4% | 17.3% | 2.3% | 2.67 | 3.20 | +0.9 |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 54 | 215 | 55 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 25.6% | 6.0% | 19.5% | 2.3% | 2.67 | 2.99 | +1.0 |
| 2017 | 25 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 70 | 0 | 83 | 361 | 80 | 29 | 9 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.2% | 8.0% | 14.1% | 2.4% | 4.45 | 3.54 | +1.5 |
| 2017 | 25 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 70 | 0 | 83 | 361 | 80 | 29 | 9 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.2% | 8.0% | 14.1% | 2.5% | 4.45 | 3.63 | +1.4 |
| 2018 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 3 | 85 | 358 | 57 | 33 | 6 | 6% | 1.8 | 15.7% | 9.3% | 6.4% | 1.7% | 2.96 | 3.86 | +1.2 |
| 2018 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 3 | 85 | 358 | 57 | 33 | 6 | 6% | 1.8 | 15.9% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 1.7% | 2.96 | 3.84 | +1.2 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 73 | 0 | 83 | 343 | 85 | 27 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 16.9% | 2.5% | 2.92 | 3.37 | +1.6 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 73 | 0 | 83 | 343 | 85 | 27 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 16.9% | 2.6% | 2.92 | 3.44 | +1.6 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 18 | 2 | 34 | 147 | 35 | 16 | 3 | 11% | 1.9 | 23.8% | 10.9% | 12.9% | 1.9% | 4.28 | 3.53 | +0.4 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 18 | 2 | 34 | 147 | 35 | 16 | 3 | 11% | 1.9 | 23.8% | 10.9% | 12.9% | 2.0% | 4.28 | 3.60 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 1 | 34 | 144 | 29 | 15 | 3 | 3% | 1.1 | 16.8% | 11.2% | 5.6% | 1.5% | 4.98 | 3.93 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 1 | 34 | 144 | 29 | 15 | 3 | 3% | 1.1 | 20.1% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 2.1% | 4.98 | 3.86 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 21 | 110 | 466 | 98 | 48 | 14 | 100% | 5.3 | 20.7% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | 4.57 | 4.23 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 21 | 110 | 466 | 98 | 48 | 14 | 100% | 5.3 | 21.0% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 3.0% | 4.57 | 4.28 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 26 | 155 | 636 | 113 | 50 | 20 | 87% | 5.2 | 17.8% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 4.35 | 4.25 | +2.1 |
| 2023 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 26 | 155 | 636 | 113 | 50 | 20 | 87% | 5.2 | 17.8% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.35 | 4.28 | +2.0 |
| 2024 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 29 | 147 | 616 | 116 | 72 | 19 | 94% | 4.7 | 18.5% | 11.8% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 3.68 | 4.85 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 29 | 147 | 616 | 116 | 72 | 19 | 94% | 4.7 | 18.8% | 11.7% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 3.68 | 4.68 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 28 | 150 | 647 | 136 | 45 | 27 | 97% | 5.2 | 21.0% | 6.4% | 14.5% | 4.4% | 4.79 | 4.57 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 28 | 150 | 647 | 136 | 45 | 27 | 97% | 5.2 | 21.0% | 7.0% | 14.1% | 4.2% | 4.79 | 4.52 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 21 | 20 | 97 | 463 | 73 | 38 | 14 | 95% | 4.6 | 15.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 6.22 | 4.47 | +1.0 |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | COL | 11 | 11 | 65 | 273 | 47 | 22 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.1% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 4.30 | 4.58 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | COL | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 47 | 23 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.1% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 4.0% | 4.58 | 4.86 | -0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 34 | MLB | COL | — | — | 162 | 736 | 120 | 60 | 23 | — | — | 16.3% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 3.2% | 5.45 | 4.51 | +1.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 34 | MLB | COL | — | — | 162 | 683 | 120 | 60 | 25 | — | — | 17.5% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 3.6% | 5.56 | 4.73 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | COL | 106 | 0 | 111 | 468 | 77 | 41 | 18 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.4% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 3.7% | 5.01 | 5.26 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | COL | 93 | 0 | 98 | 414 | 64 | 39 | 17 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.4% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 5.38 | 5.63 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 37 | MLB | COL | 82 | 0 | 86 | 361 | 52 | 36 | 16 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.3% | 10.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.77 | 6.03 | -0.9 |
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | COL | 106 | 0 | 111 | 469 | 77 | 41 | 20 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.4% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 4.3% | 5.32 | 5.57 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | COL | 93 | 0 | 98 | 414 | 64 | 39 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.4% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.73 | 5.98 | -0.7 |
| 2029 | 37 | MLB | COL | 82 | 0 | 86 | 363 | 52 | 36 | 19 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.3% | 10.0% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.15 | 6.41 | -1.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 710 | 152 | 1452 | 6193 | 1138 | 548 | 209 | 21% | 2.0 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 4.58 | 4.52 | +15.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 98 | 21 | 200 | 853 | 157 | 75 | 29 | 21% | 2.0 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 4.58 | 4.52 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 445 | 157 | 1189 | 5076 | 963 | 445 | 149 | 35% | 2.7 | 19.0% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.22 | +16.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 75 | 26 | 200 | 854 | 162 | 75 | 25 | 35% | 2.7 | 19.0% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.22 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Michael Lorenzen (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.90 | 19.9% | 8.2% | 3.8% | — | 5.61 | 15.5% | 6.2% | 294 | +0.71 | — | — | — |
| Mike Pelfrey R 2025 · 5.65 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.65 | 14.5% | 10.6% | 4.4% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 404 | 49 |
| Jason Berken R 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.31 | 11.5% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 219 | 48 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2028 · 4.98 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.98 | 16.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% | .309 | 5.53 | 14.8% | 8.8% | 59 | +0.55 | 4.98 | 211 | 45 |
| Chris Young R 2028 · 4.67 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.6% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .209 | 6.29 | 21.1% | 11.4% | 119 | +1.62 | 4.67 | 242 | 45 |
| Sam LeCure R 2024 · 4.27 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.27 | 16.6% | 6.5% | 3.2% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 171 | 45 |
| Tiago Da Silva R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.72 | 15.0% | 7.2% | 1.8% | .365 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.11 | 287 | 44 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.91 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .269 | 5.68 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 104 | +0.77 | 4.91 | 172 | 43 |
| Zach Neal R 2026 · 5.99 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.99 | 15.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 732 | 42 |
| Paolo Espino R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.32 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | .277 | 4.85 | 16.8% | 10.5% | 260 | +0.53 | 3.45 | 933 | 41 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.26 | 11.8% | 6.7% | 2.4% | .287 | 4.22 | 13.8% | 6.8% | 86 | -0.04 | 4.22 | 171 | 41 |
| Oscar Villarreal R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.85 | 14.4% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .325 | 5.28 | 8.7% | 0.1% | 13 | +1.43 | 2.54 | 135 | 41 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.95 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 132 | 40 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 34 | SP- | 5.05 | 18.9% | 7.2% | 4.8% | .280 | 4.16 | 15.8% | 7.7% | 134 | -0.89 | 3.49 | 393 | 39 |
| Juan Omar Espinoza R 2024 · 4.95 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.95 | 8.4% | 9.2% | 2.5% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.68 | 104 | 39 |
| Tim Adleman R 2026 · 5.60 FIP | 34 | SP- | 5.60 | 17.5% | 8.6% | 5.3% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.61 | 605 | 39 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.72 | 23.7% | 9.9% | 2.5% | .253 | 5.26 | 25.0% | 13.8% | 32 | +1.54 | 3.41 | 212 | 38 |
| Jerome Williams R 2026 · 5.94 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.94 | 11.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.79 | 195 | 38 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2024 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.68 | 12.2% | 9.1% | 2.6% | .420 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 203 | 38 |
| Albert Suárez R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.89 | 19.5% | 6.8% | 2.9% | .293 | 4.97 | 16.8% | 9.0% | 41 | +1.08 | 3.59 | 577 | 37 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.97 | 22.7% | 6.9% | 3.5% | .319 | 5.22 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 133 | +1.25 | 3.66 | 348 | 37 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 104 | 16.8% | 9.0% | 1.55 | 5.14 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Matt Garza ('17) | 3 | 122 | 15.5% | 8.5% | 1.26 | 5.10 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| Homer Bailey ('19) | 4 | 96 | 18.5% | 7.8% | 1.34 | 5.56 |
| Matt Cain ('17) | 3 | 91 | 15.2% | 8.2% | 1.51 | 5.58 |
| Dan Straily ('19) | 4 | 136 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 1.72 | 4.54 |