Michael Lorenzen

Michael Lorenzen P Toronto Blue Jays

Age 34 RHP 6'1" / 210 lbs MLB

2026 ROS PROJECTION124 act + 11 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 116

ERA4.57

FIP4.87

K%16.1%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%7.7%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 136 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4394.0

Whiff%

p1017.8%

p1014.6%

xwOBA vs

p100.371

SI (20%)

CU (11%)

CH-2.1 (21%)

SL-2.1 (15%)

FB-3.4 (39%)

CT-4.9 (15%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	27	156	680	102	59	21	82%	4.7	14.7%	8.7%	5.9%	2.9%	4.43	4.58	+0.6
2015	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	27	156	680	102	59	21	82%	4.7	15.0%	8.7%	6.3%	3.1%	4.43	4.67	+0.4
2016	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	54	215	55	13	5	0%	1.4	23.8%	6.4%	17.3%	2.3%	2.67	3.17	+0.9
2016	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	54	215	55	13	5	0%	1.4	25.6%	6.0%	19.5%	2.3%	2.67	2.99	+1.0
2017	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	70	0	83	361	80	29	9	0%	1.2	22.2%	8.0%	14.1%	2.3%	4.45	3.51	+1.0
2017	25	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	70	0	83	361	80	29	9	0%	1.2	22.2%	8.0%	14.1%	2.5%	4.45	3.63	+0.9
2018	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	3	85	358	57	33	6	6%	1.8	15.7%	9.3%	6.4%	1.6%	2.96	3.84	+0.7
2018	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	3	85	358	57	33	6	6%	1.8	15.9%	9.2%	6.7%	1.7%	2.96	3.84	+0.7
2019	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	73	0	83	343	85	27	9	0%	1.1	24.8%	7.9%	16.9%	2.4%	2.92	3.34	+1.2
2019	27	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	73	0	83	343	85	27	9	0%	1.1	24.8%	7.9%	16.9%	2.6%	2.92	3.44	+1.1
2020	28	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	18	2	34	147	35	16	3	11%	1.9	23.8%	10.9%	12.9%	1.9%	4.28	3.51	+0.4
2020	28	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	18	2	34	147	35	16	3	11%	1.9	23.8%	10.9%	12.9%	2.0%	4.28	3.60	+0.4
2021	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	1	34	144	29	15	3	3%	1.1	16.8%	11.2%	5.6%	1.5%	4.98	3.91	+0.3
2021	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	1	34	144	29	15	3	3%	1.1	20.1%	10.4%	9.7%	2.1%	4.98	3.86	+0.3
2022	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	110	466	98	48	14	100%	5.3	20.7%	10.7%	10.0%	2.6%	4.57	4.15	+1.0
2022	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	21	110	466	98	48	14	100%	5.3	21.0%	10.3%	10.7%	3.0%	4.57	4.28	+0.8
2023	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	26	155	636	113	50	20	87%	5.2	17.8%	7.5%	10.3%	3.0%	4.35	4.19	+1.3
2023	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	26	155	636	113	50	20	87%	5.2	17.8%	7.5%	10.3%	3.0%	4.35	4.19	+1.3
2023	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	26	155	636	113	50	20	87%	5.2	17.8%	7.9%	9.9%	3.1%	4.35	4.28	+1.1
2024	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	29	147	616	116	72	19	94%	4.7	18.4%	11.6%	6.8%	3.4%	3.68	4.86	+0.1
2024	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	29	147	616	116	72	19	94%	4.7	18.4%	11.6%	6.8%	3.4%	3.68	4.86	+0.1
2024	32	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	29	147	616	116	72	19	94%	4.7	18.8%	11.7%	7.1%	3.1%	3.68	4.68	+0.4
2025	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	150	647	136	45	27	97%	5.2	21.0%	6.4%	14.5%	4.5%	4.79	4.59	+0.5
2025	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	150	647	136	45	27	97%	5.2	21.0%	6.4%	14.5%	4.5%	4.79	4.59	+0.5
2025	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	28	150	647	136	45	27	97%	5.2	21.0%	7.0%	14.1%	4.2%	4.79	4.52	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			425	144	1120	4816	914	423	147	34%	2.6	19.0%	8.8%	10.2%	3.1%	4.41	4.31	+3.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	34	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	30	25	124	602	88	51	22	83%	4.1	14.6%	8.5%	6.1%	3.7%	7.02	4.94	-0.1
YTD	34	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	30	25	124	602	88	51	22	83%	4.1	14.6%	8.5%	6.1%	3.7%	7.02	4.94	-0.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	34	MLB RAW	TOR	30	25	124	602	88	51	22	83%	4.1	14.6%	8.5%	6.1%	3.7%	7.02	4.94	-0.1
SO FAR	34	MLB RAW	TOR	30	25	124	602	88	51	22	83%	4.1	14.6%	8.5%	6.1%	3.7%	7.02	4.94	-0.1
ROS	34	MLB MLE	TOR	2	2	11	48	8	4	2	100%	5.7	16.1%	8.3%	7.7%	3.8%	4.57	4.87	+0.0
ROS	34	MLB CTX	TOR	2	2	11	46	7	4	2	100%	5.5	16.1%	8.3%	7.7%	3.8%	4.57	4.87	+0.0
2026 TOT	34	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	136	650	96	55	24	—	—	14.7%	8.5%	6.3%	3.7%	6.82	4.94	-0.1
FULL	34	MLB A+C	TOR	—	—	136	573	96	55	24	—	—	16.7%	9.6%	7.1%	4.2%	6.82	5.19	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	35	MLB MLE	TOR	106	0	111	468	72	42	19	0%	1.0	15.4%	8.9%	6.5%	4.1%	5.28	5.53	-1.2
2028	36	MLB MLE	TOR	93	0	98	414	60	39	18	0%	1.1	14.4%	9.5%	4.9%	4.4%	5.65	5.90	-1.4
2027	35	MLB CTX	TOR	106	0	111	469	72	42	19	0%	1.0	15.4%	8.9%	6.5%	4.1%	5.28	5.53	-1.2
2028	36	MLB CTX	TOR	93	0	98	414	60	39	18	0%	1.1	14.4%	9.5%	4.9%	4.4%	5.65	5.90	-1.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		626	146	1341	5746	1053	508	186	23%	2.1	18.3%	8.8%	9.5%	3.2%	4.57	4.45	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		93	22	200	857	157	76	28	23%	2.1	18.3%	8.8%	9.5%	3.2%	4.57	4.45	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		454	162	1217	5215	977	456	155	36%	2.7	18.7%	8.7%	10.0%	3.0%	4.38	4.26	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	27	200	857	161	75	25	36%	2.7	18.7%	8.7%	10.0%	3.0%	4.38	4.26	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Lorenzen (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.92	19.9%	8.1%	3.8%	—	5.70	14.9%	5.7%	209	+0.78	—	—	—
Mike Pelfrey R 2017 · 5.69 FIP	33	SP-	5.69	14.5%	10.6%	4.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	404	73
Ubaldo Jiménez R 2017 · 4.95 FIP	33	SP-	4.95	21.5%	9.0%	4.6%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	469	53
Jason Berken R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	32	SW	4.54	11.5%	8.3%	2.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	4.34	219	49
Jerome Williams R 2016 · 5.81 FIP	34	SW	5.81	11.7%	6.1%	5.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.72	195	49
Alexi Ogando R 2018 · 4.10 FIP	34	SW	4.10	15.0%	6.4%	2.6%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	132	47
Matt Garza R 2017 · 4.57 FIP	33	SP	4.57	15.7%	8.1%	3.2%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	365	47
Kyle Lohse R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	36	SP-	4.77	16.2%	6.0%	4.2%	.309	4.97	14.8%	8.8%	59	+0.20	4.77	211	46
Sam LeCure R 2016 · 4.17 FIP	32	SW	4.17	16.6%	6.5%	3.0%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.17	171	46
Chris Young R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	36	SP-	4.69	16.6%	8.6%	3.5%	.209	6.33	21.1%	11.4%	119	+1.64	4.69	242	45
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2018 · 4.07 FIP	34	SW	4.07	23.7%	9.9%	3.1%	.253	5.11	25.0%	13.8%	32	+1.04	3.34	212	44
Tiago Da Silva R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	34	SW	3.95	15.0%	7.2%	2.2%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	287	44
Steven Wright R 2018 · 3.87 FIP	33	SW	3.87	16.8%	9.8%	1.7%	.263	4.22	20.3%	5.1%	63	+0.35	3.58	439	44
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	43
Zach Neal R 2023 · 6.01 FIP	34	SW	6.01	15.3%	6.0%	6.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	732	42
Carlos Torres R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	34	SU	4.51	17.4%	9.9%	3.0%	.304	3.66	19.8%	11.6%	113	-0.85	2.89	326	42
Roberto Hernandez R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	34	SP-	4.38	11.8%	6.7%	2.6%	.287	4.38	13.8%	6.8%	86	+0.00	4.38	171	42
Matt Cain R 2017 · 4.82 FIP	32	SP	4.82	13.2%	7.6%	3.4%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	4.82	294	41
George Kontos R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	34	SU	5.01	15.4%	9.0%	3.8%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	290	41
Oscar Villarreal R 2016 · 3.90 FIP	34	SW	3.90	14.4%	7.8%	1.9%	.325	5.36	8.7%	0.1%	13	+1.46	2.53	135	41
Paolo Espino R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	34	SP-	4.32	20.2%	5.1%	4.2%	.277	4.83	16.3%	10.6%	260	+0.51	3.42	933	40

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	111	16.8%	8.8%	1.58	5.14
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Daniel Mengden ('19)	1.5	73	17.3%	7.7%	1.24	4.68
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.7	84	18.9%	6.6%	1.38	4.37
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10