Enddy Azocar
CF Frederick Keys| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROKDSL Red Sox R… | 116 | .266/.400/.309 | 0 | 2 | 39 | — | .170/.278/.200 |
| 2025 | 18 | A/ROK2 orgs | 345 | .232/.304/.355 | 6 | 15 | 39 | — | .179/.237/.273 |
| 2026 | 19 | A+/A2 orgs | 512 | .295/.349/.537 | 21 | 20 | 89 | — | .239/.280/.436 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 20 | MLBBAL | 9 | .227/.273/.394 | 0 | 0 | 80 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ36% MLB | 21 | MLBBAL | 175 | .234/.282/.413 | 6 | 4 | 88 | 0.2 | |
| 2029PROJ49% MLB | 22 | MLBBAL | 264 | .239/.289/.426 | 10 | 6 | 94 | 0.6 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Red Sox Red | — | 116 | 94 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 266 | 400 | 309 | 709 | 43 | 312 | 13 | 16 | 335 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | A | Salem Red Sox | — | 287 | 258 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 67 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 202 | 275 | 314 | 589 | 112 | 246 | 23 | 7 | 267 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | — | 58 | 52 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 385 | 448 | 558 | 1.006 | 173 | 488 | 19 | 10 | 442 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A+ | Frederick Keys | — | 332 | 305 | 90 | 20 | 5 | 15 | 23 | 74 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 295 | 350 | 541 | 891 | 246 | 346 | 22 | 7 | 387 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A | Salem RidgeYaks | — | 180 | 166 | 49 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 40 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 295 | 346 | 530 | 876 | 235 | 355 | 22 | 7 | 380 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Red Sox Red | — | 116 | 100 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 170 | 278 | 200 | 478 | 30 | 205 | 16 | 10 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 287 | 264 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 94 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 163 | 222 | 254 | 476 | 91 | 225 | 33 | 5 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 58 | 54 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 259 | 310 | 370 | 681 | 111 | 372 | 28 | 7 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 332 | 313 | 74 | 15 | 4 | 13 | 15 | 97 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 236 | 278 | 435 | 712 | 198 | 298 | 29 | 5 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A MLE | Salem RidgeYaks | — | 180 | 169 | 41 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 54 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 243 | 285 | 438 | 723 | 195 | 315 | 30 | 5 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Red Sox Red | — | 116 | 100 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 170 | 278 | 200 | 478 | 30 | 207 | 16 | 10 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Red Sox Red | — | 116 | 94 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 266 | 400 | 309 | 709 | 43 | 312 | 13 | 16 | 335 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 345 | 318 | 58 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 110 | 5 | 15 | 3 | 182 | 240 | 280 | 520 | 97 | 259 | 32 | 6 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 345 | 310 | 72 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 78 | 5 | 15 | 3 | 232 | 304 | 355 | 659 | 123 | 289 | 23 | 8 | 296 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 512 | 483 | 116 | 27 | 7 | 18 | 23 | 151 | 4 | 20 | 3 | 240 | 280 | 437 | 717 | 197 | 310 | 29 | 4 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 512 | 471 | 139 | 35 | 8 | 21 | 35 | 114 | 4 | 20 | 3 | 295 | 349 | 537 | 886 | 242 | 349 | 22 | 7 | 384 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Red Sox Red | — | 116 | 100 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 170 | 278 | 200 | 478 | 30 | 205 | 16 | 10 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 345 | 318 | 58 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 110 | 5 | 15 | 3 | 182 | 240 | 280 | 520 | 97 | 250 | 32 | 6 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 512 | 480 | 116 | 27 | 7 | 18 | 23 | 151 | 4 | 20 | 3 | 242 | 280 | 440 | 720 | 198 | 304 | 29 | 4 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Red Sox Red | — | 116 | 100 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 170 | 278 | 200 | 478 | 30 | 205 | 16 | 10 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 345 | 318 | 58 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 110 | 5 | 15 | 3 | 182 | 240 | 280 | 520 | 97 | 250 | 32 | 6 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 512 | 480 | 116 | 27 | 7 | 18 | 23 | 151 | 4 | 20 | 3 | 242 | 280 | 440 | 720 | 198 | 304 | 29 | 4 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB MLE | BAL | 4% | 604 | 564 | 126 | 27 | 5 | 18 | 30 | 160 | 5 | 13 | 2 | 223 | 269 | 384 | 653 | 161 | 277 | 26 | 5 | 287 | 80 | -14 | +2 | -0 | +2 | +13 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB CTX | BAL | 4% | 9 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 227 | 273 | 394 | 666 | 166 | 282 | 22 | 0 | 293 | 80 | -0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 21 | MLB MLE | BAL | 36% | 483 | 450 | 103 | 22 | 4 | 16 | 26 | 124 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 230 | 278 | 403 | 681 | 173 | 279 | 26 | 5 | 299 | 88 | -7 | +1 | -0 | +2 | +10 | 0.7 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB MLE | BAL | 49% | 537 | 497 | 117 | 24 | 5 | 19 | 30 | 134 | 5 | 13 | 2 | 234 | 285 | 415 | 700 | 181 | 280 | 25 | 6 | 307 | 94 | -4 | +2 | -0 | +2 | +12 | 1.1 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB MLE | BAL | 55% | 560 | 517 | 122 | 25 | 5 | 20 | 33 | 137 | 5 | 13 | 2 | 237 | 290 | 422 | 712 | 184 | 281 | 24 | 6 | 312 | 97 | -2 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +12 | 1.4 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB MLE | BAL | 56% | 578 | 533 | 127 | 26 | 5 | 21 | 35 | 139 | 5 | 13 | 2 | 239 | 294 | 426 | 719 | 186 | 283 | 24 | 6 | 315 | 100 | -0 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +13 | 1.7 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB MLE | BAL | 56% | 590 | 542 | 131 | 27 | 5 | 22 | 37 | 141 | 6 | 13 | 2 | 240 | 296 | 427 | 723 | 186 | 283 | 24 | 6 | 317 | 101 | +0 | +2 | +1 | +2 | +13 | 1.8 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB MLE | BAL | 56% | 599 | 550 | 132 | 27 | 5 | 22 | 38 | 144 | 6 | 13 | 2 | 240 | 296 | 426 | 722 | 186 | 283 | 24 | 6 | 317 | 101 | +0 | +2 | +1 | +2 | +13 | 1.8 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB MLE | BAL | 55% | 596 | 547 | 132 | 27 | 5 | 22 | 38 | 144 | 6 | 12 | 2 | 239 | 295 | 424 | 719 | 185 | 282 | 24 | 6 | 315 | 100 | -0 | +2 | +1 | +2 | +13 | 1.7 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB MLE | BAL | 55% | 585 | 538 | 128 | 26 | 5 | 21 | 37 | 142 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 237 | 293 | 419 | 712 | 182 | 281 | 24 | 6 | 313 | 98 | -2 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +13 | 1.5 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB MLE | BAL | 53% | 568 | 522 | 122 | 25 | 4 | 20 | 36 | 140 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 235 | 290 | 413 | 703 | 178 | 280 | 25 | 6 | 309 | 95 | -3 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +12 | 1.2 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB MLE | BAL | 53% | 552 | 508 | 118 | 24 | 4 | 19 | 34 | 138 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 232 | 286 | 405 | 691 | 174 | 278 | 25 | 6 | 304 | 92 | -5 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +12 | 0.8 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB MLE | BAL | 52% | 534 | 492 | 112 | 23 | 4 | 17 | 33 | 135 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 227 | 281 | 395 | 677 | 168 | 275 | 25 | 6 | 298 | 88 | -8 | +0 | -2 | +2 | +12 | 0.4 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB CTX | BAL | 36% | 175 | 162 | 38 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 45 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 234 | 282 | 413 | 695 | 179 | 283 | 26 | 5 | 305 | 88 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +4 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB CTX | BAL | 49% | 264 | 245 | 58 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 15 | 66 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 239 | 289 | 426 | 715 | 187 | 285 | 25 | 6 | 313 | 94 | -2 | +1 | -0 | +1 | +6 | 0.6 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB CTX | BAL | 55% | 305 | 281 | 68 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 18 | 75 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 242 | 294 | 433 | 727 | 191 | 286 | 25 | 6 | 318 | 97 | -1 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +7 | 0.8 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB CTX | BAL | 56% | 321 | 295 | 72 | 15 | 3 | 12 | 20 | 77 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 244 | 298 | 437 | 735 | 193 | 287 | 24 | 6 | 322 | 100 | -0 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +7 | 0.9 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB CTX | BAL | 56% | 331 | 304 | 75 | 15 | 3 | 13 | 21 | 79 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 245 | 300 | 438 | 738 | 193 | 288 | 24 | 6 | 323 | 101 | +0 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +7 | 1.0 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB CTX | BAL | 56% | 337 | 310 | 77 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 21 | 81 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 245 | 300 | 438 | 738 | 193 | 287 | 24 | 6 | 323 | 101 | +0 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +7 | 1.0 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB CTX | BAL | 55% | 330 | 303 | 74 | 15 | 3 | 13 | 21 | 80 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 244 | 299 | 435 | 734 | 192 | 287 | 24 | 6 | 321 | 100 | -0 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +7 | 1.0 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB CTX | BAL | 55% | 321 | 295 | 72 | 15 | 3 | 12 | 20 | 78 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 242 | 297 | 430 | 727 | 189 | 286 | 24 | 6 | 319 | 98 | -1 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +7 | 0.8 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB CTX | BAL | 53% | 303 | 278 | 67 | 14 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 75 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 239 | 294 | 424 | 718 | 185 | 284 | 25 | 6 | 315 | 95 | -2 | +1 | -0 | +1 | +7 | 0.6 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB CTX | BAL | 53% | 290 | 268 | 63 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 72 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 236 | 290 | 416 | 706 | 180 | 282 | 25 | 6 | 310 | 92 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +6 | 0.4 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB CTX | BAL | 52% | 278 | 257 | 60 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 17 | 70 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 232 | 285 | 406 | 691 | 174 | 279 | 25 | 6 | 304 | 88 | -4 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +6 | 0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 3255 | 2998 | 724 | 149 | 28 | 121 | 199 | 798 | 29 | 63 | 11 | 241 | 295 | 431 | 726 | 189 | 288 | 25 | 6 | 317 | 92 | -15 | +8 | -1 | +12 | +71 | 7.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 599 | 145 | 30 | 6 | 24 | 40 | 159 | 6 | 13 | 2 | 242 | 297 | 432 | 729 | 190 | 288 | 24 | 6 | 317 | 92 | -3 | +2 | -0 | +2 | +14 | 1.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 7365 | 6793 | 1578 | 325 | 63 | 248 | 441 | 1854 | 70 | 164 | 36 | 232 | 286 | 408 | 694 | 176 | 281 | 25 | 6 | 303 | 92 | -35 | +16 | -2 | +23 | +138 | 14.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 600 | 140 | 29 | 6 | 22 | 39 | 164 | 6 | 14 | 3 | 233 | 287 | 412 | 698 | 178 | 283 | 25 | 6 | 303 | 92 | -4 | +2 | -0 | +2 | +14 | 1.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Frederick Keys · 332 PAwOBA .377 → .303 (−74)K% 22.3% → 29.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.29% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 29.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.93% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.050 | 4.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.90% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.050 | 0.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | ×0.977 | ×1.050 | 19.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.66% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×0.977 | ×1.050 | 6.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.16% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.977 | ×1.050 | 1.89% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.050 | 6.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .377 → .303; ISO .246 → .205; BABIP .346 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ASalem RidgeYaks · 180 PAwOBA .371 → .296 (−75)K% 22.2% → 30.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.22% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 4.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.56% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.964 | ×1.045 | 18.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.90% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.964 | ×1.045 | 9.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.964 | ×1.045 | 2.18% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 3.98% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .371 → .296; ISO .235 → .184; BABIP .355 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ASalem Red Sox · 287 PAwOBA .262 → .213 (−48)K% 23.3% → 32.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.34% | ÷0.974 | ×1.360 | — | — | 32.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.32% | ÷1.011 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 5.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.74% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 1.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.85% | ÷1.030 | ×0.920 | ×0.989 | ×1.050 | 17.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.71% | ÷0.963 | ×0.830 | ×0.989 | ×1.050 | 4.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.52% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.989 | ×1.050 | 0.43% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.14% | ÷0.891 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 2.96% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 106, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .262 → .213; ISO .112 → .094; BABIP .246 → .225. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Red Sox · 58 PAwOBA .431 → .295 (−136)K% 19.0% → 28.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.97% | ÷0.965 | ×1.440 | — | — | 28.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.34% | ÷0.988 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 6.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.27% | ÷1.033 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.022 | 23.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 17.07% | ÷1.101 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 11.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.44% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 2.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.815 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 63, 1B 107, 2B 120, 3B 80, K 93, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .431 → .295; ISO .173 → .112; BABIP .488 → .372. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 DSLDSL Red Sox Red · 116 PAwOBA .330 → .226 (−104)K% 12.9% → 16.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.93% | ÷0.965 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.52% | ÷1.044 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 10.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.59% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 1.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×0.962 | ×1.022 | 18.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.53% | ÷1.124 | ×0.600 | ×0.962 | ×1.022 | 1.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.27% | ÷0.900 | ×0.600 | ×0.962 | ×1.022 | 0.83% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.953 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 100, 2B 125, 3B 80, K 93, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.
Result: wOBA .330 → .226; ISO .043 → .026; BABIP .312 → .205. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).