Patrick Leonard
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 24 | AAATB | 553 | .268/.330/.408 | 12 | 15 | 68 | — | .228/.277/.340 |
| 2018 | 25 | AAACWS | 480 | .242/.317/.395 | 11 | 3 | 48 | — | .193/.245/.298 |
| 2019 | 26 | AAMIL | 403 | .301/.378/.459 | 10 | 9 | 76 | — | .230/.288/.336 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 19 | ROK | Burlington Royals | — | 268 | 235 | 59 | 9 | 3 | 14 | 30 | 55 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 251 | 341 | 494 | 834 | 243 | 269 | 21 | 11 | 365 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 493 | 440 | 99 | 26 | 0 | 9 | 42 | 118 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 225 | 304 | 345 | 650 | 120 | 286 | 24 | 9 | 295 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | INTL | Brisbane Bandits | — | 162 | 145 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 45 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 228 | 309 | 345 | 653 | 117 | 309 | 28 | 9 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A+ | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 515 | 455 | 129 | 26 | 5 | 13 | 49 | 107 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 284 | 362 | 448 | 810 | 165 | 342 | 21 | 10 | 359 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | INTL | Peoria Javelinas | — | 77 | 66 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 182 | 299 | 318 | 617 | 136 | 222 | 25 | 13 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 514 | 446 | 114 | 32 | 3 | 10 | 54 | 129 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 256 | 352 | 408 | 760 | 152 | 337 | 25 | 11 | 342 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 145 | 131 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 54 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 198 | 276 | 252 | 528 | 53 | 338 | 37 | 9 | 248 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 307 | 276 | 79 | 24 | 0 | 9 | 20 | 82 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 286 | 350 | 471 | 821 | 185 | 370 | 27 | 7 | 359 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 553 | 503 | 135 | 32 | 1 | 12 | 40 | 131 | 6 | 15 | 2 | 268 | 330 | 408 | 737 | 139 | 338 | 24 | 7 | 328 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 480 | 430 | 104 | 29 | 2 | 11 | 43 | 145 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 242 | 317 | 395 | 712 | 153 | 337 | 30 | 9 | 318 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 403 | 355 | 107 | 22 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 109 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 301 | 378 | 459 | 838 | 158 | 404 | 27 | 10 | 370 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | Burlington Royals | — | 268 | 247 | 45 | 6 | 2 | 11 | 18 | 78 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 182 | 243 | 356 | 600 | 174 | 211 | 29 | 7 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 493 | 456 | 79 | 19 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 168 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 173 | 231 | 254 | 485 | 81 | 253 | 34 | 5 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A+ MLE | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 515 | 467 | 110 | 23 | 3 | 12 | 37 | 156 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 236 | 301 | 375 | 676 | 139 | 319 | 30 | 7 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 514 | 462 | 103 | 30 | 2 | 8 | 38 | 159 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 223 | 299 | 348 | 647 | 126 | 318 | 31 | 7 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 145 | 135 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 65 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 163 | 221 | 207 | 428 | 44 | 315 | 45 | 6 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 307 | 282 | 67 | 20 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 102 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 238 | 290 | 372 | 663 | 135 | 334 | 33 | 5 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 553 | 514 | 117 | 26 | 1 | 10 | 29 | 153 | 6 | 15 | 2 | 228 | 277 | 340 | 617 | 113 | 296 | 28 | 5 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 480 | 446 | 86 | 22 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 176 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 193 | 245 | 298 | 543 | 105 | 294 | 37 | 6 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 403 | 369 | 85 | 16 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 136 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 230 | 288 | 336 | 624 | 106 | 338 | 34 | 7 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | Burlington Royals | — | 268 | 247 | 45 | 6 | 2 | 11 | 18 | 78 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 182 | 243 | 356 | 600 | 174 | 214 | 29 | 7 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK RAW | Burlington Royals | — | 268 | 235 | 59 | 9 | 3 | 14 | 30 | 55 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 251 | 341 | 494 | 834 | 243 | 269 | 21 | 11 | 365 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 655 | 607 | 105 | 25 | 0 | 8 | 35 | 223 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 173 | 230 | 254 | 484 | 81 | 257 | 34 | 5 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 655 | 585 | 132 | 32 | 1 | 12 | 57 | 163 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 226 | 305 | 345 | 651 | 120 | 291 | 25 | 9 | 295 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 592 | 537 | 126 | 27 | 4 | 13 | 43 | 179 | 8 | 15 | 1 | 235 | 301 | 372 | 673 | 138 | 324 | 30 | 7 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 592 | 521 | 141 | 29 | 5 | 15 | 59 | 126 | 8 | 15 | 1 | 271 | 354 | 432 | 786 | 161 | 328 | 21 | 10 | 349 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 514 | 462 | 103 | 30 | 2 | 8 | 38 | 159 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 223 | 299 | 348 | 647 | 126 | 320 | 31 | 7 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | AA RAW | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 514 | 446 | 114 | 32 | 3 | 10 | 54 | 129 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 256 | 352 | 408 | 760 | 152 | 337 | 25 | 11 | 342 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 452 | 417 | 89 | 24 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 167 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 213 | 268 | 319 | 587 | 106 | 335 | 37 | 5 | 259 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 452 | 407 | 105 | 29 | 1 | 9 | 33 | 136 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 258 | 326 | 400 | 726 | 143 | 361 | 30 | 7 | 323 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 553 | 514 | 117 | 26 | 1 | 10 | 29 | 153 | 6 | 15 | 2 | 228 | 277 | 340 | 617 | 113 | 301 | 28 | 5 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA RAW | Durham Bulls | — | 553 | 503 | 135 | 32 | 1 | 12 | 40 | 131 | 6 | 15 | 2 | 268 | 330 | 408 | 737 | 139 | 338 | 24 | 7 | 328 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 480 | 446 | 86 | 22 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 176 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 193 | 245 | 298 | 543 | 105 | 298 | 37 | 6 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA RAW | Charlotte Knights | — | 480 | 430 | 104 | 29 | 2 | 11 | 43 | 145 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 242 | 317 | 395 | 712 | 153 | 337 | 30 | 9 | 318 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 403 | 369 | 85 | 16 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 136 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 230 | 288 | 336 | 624 | 106 | 339 | 34 | 7 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA RAW | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 403 | 355 | 107 | 22 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 109 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 301 | 378 | 459 | 838 | 158 | 404 | 27 | 10 | 370 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | Burlington Royals | — | 268 | 246 | 45 | 6 | 2 | 11 | 18 | 78 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 183 | 243 | 358 | 601 | 175 | 211 | 29 | 7 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 655 | 605 | 105 | 25 | 0 | 8 | 35 | 223 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 174 | 230 | 255 | 485 | 81 | 253 | 34 | 5 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 592 | 536 | 126 | 27 | 4 | 13 | 43 | 179 | 8 | 15 | 1 | 235 | 301 | 373 | 674 | 138 | 319 | 30 | 7 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 514 | 459 | 103 | 30 | 2 | 8 | 38 | 159 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 224 | 299 | 351 | 650 | 126 | 318 | 31 | 7 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 452 | 418 | 89 | 24 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 167 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 213 | 268 | 318 | 586 | 105 | 328 | 37 | 5 | 259 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 553 | 513 | 117 | 26 | 1 | 10 | 29 | 153 | 6 | 15 | 2 | 228 | 277 | 341 | 618 | 113 | 296 | 28 | 5 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 480 | 446 | 86 | 22 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 176 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 193 | 245 | 298 | 543 | 105 | 294 | 37 | 6 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 403 | 370 | 85 | 16 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 136 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 230 | 288 | 335 | 623 | 105 | 338 | 34 | 7 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3917 | 3599 | 756 | 176 | 13 | 70 | 241 | 1271 | 52 | 71 | 17 | 210 | 270 | 325 | 594 | 114 | 301 | 32 | 6 | 262 | 64 | -170 | +7 | +0 | -70 | +85 | -15.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 597 | 125 | 29 | 2 | 12 | 40 | 211 | 9 | 12 | 3 | 209 | 269 | 325 | 594 | 116 | 299 | 32 | 6 | 262 | 64 | -28 | +1 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -2.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AABiloxi Shuckers · 403 PAwOBA .364 → .280 (−84)K% 27.0% → 33.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.05% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.42% | ÷1.006 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 6.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.50% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 0.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.67% | ÷0.984 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 25.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.94% | ÷1.092 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 6.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.81% | ÷1.124 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 0.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.07% | ÷1.018 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 3.13% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 97, 2B 118, 3B 125, K 95, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .364 → .280; ISO .158 → .117; BABIP .404 → .338. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAACharlotte Knights · 480 PAwOBA .308 → .239 (−69)K% 30.2% → 36.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.21% | ÷0.986 | ×1.200 | — | — | 36.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.33% | ÷1.030 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 5.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.83% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.75% | ÷1.030 | ×0.930 | ×1.011 | ×1.018 | 20.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.18% | ÷1.077 | ×0.830 | ×1.011 | ×1.018 | 8.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.70% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.011 | ×1.018 | 0.61% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.86% | ÷1.319 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 2.50% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 106, 2B 115, 3B 130, K 97, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .308 → .239; ISO .153 → .106; BABIP .337 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAADurham Bulls · 553 PAwOBA .322 → .268 (−54)K% 23.7% → 27.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.69% | ÷1.027 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.23% | ÷0.993 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 5.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.08% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.19% | ÷1.025 | ×0.930 | ×0.962 | ×1.033 | 21.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.60% | ÷1.008 | ×0.830 | ×0.962 | ×1.033 | 7.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.27% | ÷1.022 | ×0.970 | ×0.962 | ×1.033 | 0.25% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.23% | ÷1.049 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 2.67% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 105, 2B 102, 3B 104, K 105, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.
Result: wOBA .322 → .268; ISO .139 → .113; BABIP .338 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 307 PAwOBA .354 → .290 (−64)K% 26.7% → 33.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.71% | ÷0.982 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.51% | ÷0.980 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 4.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.28% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 1.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.71% | ÷0.982 | ×0.920 | ×0.985 | ×1.012 | 22.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.37% | ÷1.040 | ×0.910 | ×0.985 | ×1.012 | 10.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.994 | ×0.880 | ×0.985 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.64% | ÷1.081 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.47% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 96, 2B 108, 3B 99, K 96, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.
Result: wOBA .354 → .290; ISO .185 → .142; BABIP .370 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAADurham Bulls · 145 PAwOBA .242 → .194 (−48)K% 37.2% → 45.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.24% | ÷0.994 | ×1.200 | — | — | 44.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.97% | ÷1.082 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 5.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.69% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.97% | ÷1.010 | ×0.930 | ×0.995 | ×1.048 | 24.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.49% | ÷1.093 | ×0.830 | ×0.995 | ×1.048 | 5.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.30% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.995 | ×1.048 | 1.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.167 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 102, 2B 119, 3B 80, K 99, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .242 → .194; ISO .053 → .043; BABIP .338 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 514 PAwOBA .334 → .286 (−48)K% 25.1% → 30.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.10% | ÷0.990 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.51% | ÷0.987 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 7.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.33% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 2.01% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.77% | ÷1.005 | ×0.920 | ×1.001 | ×1.027 | 20.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.09% | ÷0.953 | ×0.910 | ×1.001 | ×1.027 | 9.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.95% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×1.001 | ×1.027 | 0.74% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.15% | ÷0.983 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 2.64% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 101, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.
Result: wOBA .334 → .286; ISO .152 → .133; BABIP .337 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs · 515 PAwOBA .351 → .296 (−56)K% 20.8% → 30.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.78% | ÷0.977 | ×1.420 | — | — | 30.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.32% | ÷0.985 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.012 | 7.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.36% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.012 | 1.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.43% | ÷0.996 | ×0.920 | ×0.992 | ×1.012 | 22.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.47% | ÷0.977 | ×0.960 | ×0.992 | ×1.012 | 7.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.44% | ÷1.109 | ×0.810 | ×0.992 | ×1.012 | 1.05% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.74% | ÷0.899 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 3.70% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 99, 2B 95, 3B 122, K 95, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .351 → .296; ISO .165 → .143; BABIP .342 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 ABowling Green Hot Rods · 493 PAwOBA .287 → .218 (−70)K% 23.9% → 34.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.94% | ÷0.958 | ×1.360 | — | — | 33.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.32% | ÷1.098 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 5.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.62% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.88% | ÷1.004 | ×0.920 | ×0.996 | ×1.015 | 18.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.07% | ÷1.038 | ×0.830 | ×0.996 | ×1.015 | 6.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.974 | ×0.910 | ×0.996 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.80% | ÷1.044 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 2.17% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 101, 2B 108, 3B 95, K 92, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .287 → .218; ISO .120 → .087; BABIP .286 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .