Brayan Buelvas
CF Las Vegas Aviators| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | AA/A+OAK | 492 | .267/.355/.421 | 8 | 27 | 71 | — | .212/.283/.330 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA/ROKOAK | 301 | .203/.277/.317 | 5 | 7 | 23 | — | .158/.217/.240 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA/AAOAK | 450 | .273/.347/.509 | 20 | 6 | 87 | — | .229/.287/.405 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 25 | MLBOAK | 21 | .206/.265/.348 | 1 | 0 | 66 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ35% MLB | 26 | MLBOAK | 88 | .208/.268/.351 | 2 | 1 | 68 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | AZL Athletics Green | — | 274 | 238 | 67 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 30 | 60 | 5 | 16 | 9 | 282 | 374 | 450 | 823 | 168 | 364 | 22 | 11 | 365 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A | Stockton Ports | — | 392 | 347 | 76 | 11 | 4 | 16 | 37 | 95 | 7 | 17 | 7 | 219 | 307 | 412 | 719 | 193 | 253 | 24 | 9 | 320 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | INTL | Colombia | — | 25 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 273 | 333 | 273 | 606 | 333 | 20 | 8 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 260 | 236 | 46 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 57 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 195 | 266 | 352 | 618 | 157 | 225 | 22 | 7 | 277 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | ACL Athletics | — | 30 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 261 | 414 | 522 | 936 | 261 | 294 | 20 | 13 | 399 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | INTL | Colombia | — | 15 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 154 | 214 | 154 | 368 | 222 | 33 | 7 | 167 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 21 | AA | Midland RockHounds | — | 83 | 75 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 187 | 247 | 293 | 540 | 107 | 236 | 25 | 6 | 240 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 123 | 111 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 38 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 135 | 213 | 243 | 456 | 108 | 181 | 31 | 7 | 211 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Stockton Ports | — | 235 | 200 | 58 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 31 | 51 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 290 | 391 | 515 | 906 | 225 | 348 | 22 | 13 | 395 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Midland RockHounds | — | 131 | 121 | 31 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 34 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 256 | 308 | 364 | 671 | 107 | 345 | 26 | 6 | 300 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 361 | 309 | 84 | 20 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 80 | 3 | 22 | 6 | 272 | 372 | 443 | 815 | 172 | 342 | 22 | 13 | 361 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Midland RockHounds | — | 270 | 242 | 47 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 86 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 194 | 271 | 310 | 581 | 116 | 276 | 32 | 8 | 265 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | ROK | ACL Athletics | — | 31 | 29 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 276 | 323 | 379 | 702 | 103 | 320 | 13 | 3 | 316 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 403 | 364 | 99 | 24 | 4 | 17 | 37 | 104 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 272 | 341 | 500 | 841 | 228 | 336 | 26 | 9 | 367 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Midland RockHounds | — | 47 | 39 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 282 | 404 | 590 | 994 | 308 | 348 | 28 | 17 | 429 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | AZL Athletics Green | — | 274 | 250 | 48 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 18 | 86 | 5 | 16 | 9 | 192 | 260 | 296 | 556 | 104 | 280 | 31 | 7 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 392 | 358 | 66 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 26 | 127 | 7 | 17 | 7 | 184 | 253 | 324 | 577 | 140 | 246 | 32 | 7 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 260 | 241 | 39 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 72 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 162 | 220 | 290 | 511 | 129 | 203 | 28 | 5 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 30 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 200 | 310 | 440 | 750 | 240 | 226 | 30 | 7 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 83 | 76 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 184 | 235 | 289 | 524 | 105 | 228 | 31 | 5 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 123 | 114 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 51 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 96 | 156 | 167 | 322 | 70 | 159 | 41 | 5 | 150 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 235 | 209 | 49 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 22 | 70 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 234 | 313 | 407 | 720 | 172 | 312 | 30 | 9 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 131 | 123 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 43 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 195 | 238 | 276 | 515 | 81 | 291 | 33 | 5 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 361 | 321 | 70 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 34 | 104 | 3 | 22 | 6 | 218 | 299 | 349 | 648 | 131 | 299 | 29 | 9 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 270 | 250 | 38 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 106 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 152 | 212 | 236 | 448 | 84 | 241 | 39 | 6 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 31 | 29 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 207 | 258 | 276 | 534 | 69 | 234 | 19 | 3 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 403 | 374 | 86 | 20 | 4 | 12 | 27 | 125 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 230 | 284 | 401 | 685 | 171 | 308 | 31 | 7 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 47 | 41 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 220 | 319 | 439 | 758 | 220 | 313 | 34 | 13 | 340 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | AZL Athletics Green | — | 274 | 250 | 48 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 18 | 86 | 5 | 16 | 9 | 192 | 260 | 296 | 556 | 104 | 282 | 31 | 7 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK RAW | AZL Athletics Green | — | 274 | 238 | 67 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 30 | 60 | 5 | 16 | 9 | 282 | 374 | 450 | 823 | 168 | 364 | 22 | 11 | 365 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 417 | 380 | 70 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 28 | 135 | 7 | 18 | 7 | 184 | 253 | 318 | 571 | 134 | 250 | 32 | 7 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 417 | 369 | 82 | 11 | 4 | 16 | 39 | 100 | 7 | 18 | 7 | 222 | 308 | 404 | 712 | 182 | 259 | 24 | 9 | 317 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 305 | 279 | 47 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 85 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 168 | 232 | 305 | 536 | 136 | 211 | 28 | 5 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 305 | 272 | 54 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 68 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 199 | 278 | 357 | 635 | 158 | 231 | 22 | 7 | 284 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 441 | 399 | 73 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 32 | 147 | 5 | 31 | 4 | 183 | 252 | 308 | 561 | 125 | 259 | 33 | 7 | 249 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 441 | 386 | 87 | 19 | 5 | 12 | 45 | 110 | 5 | 31 | 4 | 225 | 314 | 394 | 708 | 168 | 280 | 25 | 10 | 314 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 492 | 444 | 96 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 40 | 147 | 4 | 27 | 7 | 216 | 287 | 336 | 622 | 119 | 303 | 30 | 8 | 274 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 492 | 430 | 115 | 28 | 7 | 8 | 54 | 114 | 4 | 27 | 7 | 267 | 355 | 421 | 775 | 153 | 343 | 23 | 11 | 345 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 301 | 280 | 44 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 112 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 157 | 213 | 239 | 453 | 82 | 242 | 37 | 5 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 301 | 271 | 55 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 90 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 203 | 277 | 317 | 594 | 114 | 282 | 30 | 8 | 271 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 450 | 416 | 95 | 21 | 5 | 14 | 32 | 141 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 228 | 285 | 404 | 689 | 175 | 309 | 31 | 7 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 450 | 403 | 110 | 25 | 5 | 20 | 45 | 117 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 273 | 347 | 509 | 856 | 236 | 337 | 26 | 10 | 374 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | AZL Athletics Green | — | 274 | 249 | 48 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 18 | 86 | 5 | 16 | 9 | 193 | 260 | 297 | 557 | 104 | 280 | 31 | 7 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 417 | 379 | 70 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 28 | 135 | 7 | 18 | 7 | 185 | 253 | 319 | 572 | 135 | 246 | 32 | 7 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 305 | 279 | 47 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 85 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 168 | 232 | 305 | 536 | 136 | 205 | 28 | 5 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 441 | 401 | 73 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 32 | 147 | 5 | 31 | 4 | 182 | 252 | 307 | 559 | 125 | 254 | 33 | 7 | 249 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 492 | 445 | 96 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 40 | 147 | 4 | 27 | 7 | 216 | 287 | 335 | 622 | 119 | 297 | 30 | 8 | 274 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 301 | 278 | 44 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 112 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 158 | 213 | 241 | 454 | 83 | 240 | 37 | 5 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 450 | 414 | 95 | 21 | 5 | 14 | 32 | 141 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 229 | 285 | 406 | 691 | 176 | 309 | 31 | 7 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 492 | 445 | 96 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 40 | 147 | 4 | 27 | 7 | 216 | 287 | 335 | 622 | 119 | 297 | 30 | 8 | 274 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 301 | 278 | 44 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 112 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 158 | 213 | 241 | 454 | 83 | 240 | 37 | 5 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 450 | 414 | 95 | 21 | 5 | 14 | 32 | 141 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 229 | 285 | 406 | 691 | 176 | 309 | 31 | 7 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | OAK | 10% | 380 | 349 | 70 | 15 | 3 | 9 | 26 | 119 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 200 | 259 | 338 | 597 | 138 | 270 | 31 | 7 | 266 | 66 | -15 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +8 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | OAK | 10% | 21 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 265 | 348 | 613 | 142 | 281 | 33 | 5 | 273 | 66 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | OAK | 35% | 254 | 233 | 47 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 78 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 202 | 262 | 341 | 603 | 139 | 271 | 31 | 7 | 269 | 68 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +6 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | OAK | 35% | 88 | 81 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 208 | 268 | 351 | 619 | 143 | 282 | 31 | 7 | 276 | 68 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +2 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 88 | 81 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 210 | 273 | 358 | 631 | 148 | 288 | 31 | 7 | 276 | 60 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +2 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 598 | 126 | 30 | 7 | 15 | 44 | 199 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 211 | 272 | 360 | 632 | 149 | 289 | 31 | 7 | 276 | 60 | -25 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -0.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3144 | 2874 | 558 | 120 | 28 | 65 | 211 | 997 | 38 | 124 | 34 | 194 | 258 | 323 | 582 | 129 | 269 | 32 | 7 | 257 | 60 | -18 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +10 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 594 | 115 | 25 | 6 | 13 | 44 | 206 | 8 | 26 | 7 | 194 | 259 | 322 | 580 | 128 | 269 | 32 | 7 | 257 | 60 | -25 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -0.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 403 PAwOBA .358 → .293 (−65)K% 25.8% → 31.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.81% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.18% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 6.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.25% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.77% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.986 | ×1.048 | 19.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.986 | ×1.048 | 7.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.986 | ×1.048 | 1.54% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 4.80% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .358 → .293; ISO .228 → .175; BABIP .336 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAMidland RockHounds · 47 PAwOBA .418 → .340 (−77)K% 27.7% → 33.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.66% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.02% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 12.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 21.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 3.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | — | ×1.012 | 3.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 9.34% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .418 → .340; ISO .308 → .252; BABIP .348 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAMidland RockHounds · 270 PAwOBA .259 → .200 (−60)K% 31.9% → 39.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.85% | ÷0.988 | ×1.220 | — | — | 39.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.15% | ÷1.078 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 5.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.48% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 1.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.59% | ÷1.012 | ×0.920 | ×0.998 | ×1.027 | 17.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.131 | ×0.840 | ×0.998 | ×1.027 | 6.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.998 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.21% | ÷1.043 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 2.53% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 102, 2B 126, 3B 130, K 98, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.
Result: wOBA .259 → .200; ISO .116 → .084; BABIP .276 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKACL Athletics · 31 PAwOBA .308 → .211 (−97)K% 12.9% → 18.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.90% | ÷0.983 | ×1.440 | — | — | 18.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.23% | ÷0.971 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.965 | 1.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.23% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 2.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.039 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.965 | 15.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.00% | ÷1.020 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 8.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.989 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.926 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 108, 2B 104, 3B 98, K 97, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .308 → .211; ISO .103 → .067; BABIP .320 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 361 PAwOBA .355 → .290 (−66)K% 22.2% → 28.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.16% | ÷0.974 | ×1.270 | — | — | 28.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.74% | ÷0.974 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 9.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.83% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.27% | ÷1.036 | ×0.920 | ×1.008 | ×1.012 | 20.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.73% | ÷0.992 | ×0.810 | ×1.008 | ×1.012 | 7.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.62% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.008 | ×1.012 | 1.97% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.06% | ÷0.867 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 2.86% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 107, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 95, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .355 → .290; ISO .172 → .141; BABIP .342 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAMidland RockHounds · 131 PAwOBA .294 → .229 (−65)K% 26.0% → 32.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.95% | ÷0.967 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 4.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.76% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 0.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.14% | ÷1.060 | ×0.920 | ×0.982 | ×1.042 | 21.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.20% | ÷1.170 | ×0.840 | ×0.982 | ×1.042 | 6.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.15% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.982 | ×1.042 | 0.96% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.15% | ÷0.940 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 1.02% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 112, 2B 134, 3B 130, K 93, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .294 → .229; ISO .107 → .079; BABIP .345 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AStockton Ports · 235 PAwOBA .386 → .313 (−73)K% 21.7% → 29.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.70% | ÷0.996 | ×1.360 | — | — | 29.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.19% | ÷1.004 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 9.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.85% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.82% | ÷0.979 | ×0.920 | ×0.981 | ×1.015 | 21.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.05% | ÷1.026 | ×0.830 | ×0.981 | ×1.015 | 6.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.01% | ÷0.945 | ×0.910 | ×0.981 | ×1.015 | 1.93% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.04% | ÷0.945 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 5.19% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 96, 2B 105, 3B 89, K 99, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .386 → .313; ISO .225 → .184; BABIP .348 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 123 PAwOBA .207 → .150 (−57)K% 30.9% → 41.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.89% | ÷0.938 | ×1.270 | — | — | 41.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.32% | ÷1.036 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 5.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.63% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 1.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 10.96% | ÷0.991 | ×0.920 | ×0.973 | ×1.027 | 10.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.48% | ÷0.946 | ×0.810 | ×0.973 | ×1.027 | 4.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.37% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.973 | ×1.027 | 1.01% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.74% | ÷1.209 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 1.86% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 98, 2B 89, 3B 130, K 88, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .207 → .150; ISO .108 → .070; BABIP .181 → .159. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).