Mat Nelson — OGILVIE

Mat NelsonC Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 27 R/R 5'11" / 209 lbs AA HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 136 proj PA

wRC+†54

AVG/OBP/SLG.177 / .269 / .275

PA136

HR3

K%33

BB%8

ISO99

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 32 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT32

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE49

scouting grade only

SPEED42

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	22	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	29	25	3	1	1	0	3	21	1	0	1	120	241	240	481	120	750	72	10	175	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	29	24	5	2	1	0	4	15	1	0	1	208	345	375	720	167	556	52	14	328	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	321	288	45	7	1	5	19	133	11	1	0	156	236	240	475	83	263	41	6	216	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	321	283	62	13	2	8	24	108	11	1	0	219	305	364	669	145	320	34	7	301	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	A+	2 teams	—	413	366	65	7	0	17	33	155	11	6	0	178	266	336	602	158	245	38	8	264	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	A+	2 teams	—	413	350	80	10	0	21	49	109	11	6	0	229	341	437	779	209	266	26	12	347	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	300	255	43	6	0	3	22	87	19	0	0	169	284	227	511	59	238	29	7	234	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	300	247	49	10	0	4	30	68	19	0	0	198	331	287	619	89	253	23	10	292	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	99	87	7	1	0	1	9	38	2	0	0	80	184	126	310	46	122	38	9	149	-28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	99	80	7	1	0	1	16	30	2	0	0	87	255	138	393	50	120	30	16	207	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	MLB	CIN	—	136	120	21	3	0	3	11	46	4	1	0	175	267	275	542	100	257	34	8	255	54	-7	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	CIN	27%	207	182	33	5	0	4	17	67	6	2	0	181	273	275	548	93	261	32	8	261	58	-10	+0	-1	+4	+6	-0.1
2028	29	MLB	CIN	37%	262	231	43	7	1	5	22	84	7	3	0	186	277	290	567	104	263	32	8	264	60	-12	+1	-1	+5	+7	-0.0
2027	28	MLB	CIN	27%	56	49	8	1	0	1	5	18	2	1	0	163	268	245	513	82	263	32	9	242	43	-4	+0	-0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	29	MLB	CIN	37%	97	86	16	3	0	2	8	31	3	1	0	186	278	291	569	105	265	32	8	246	46	-6	+0	-1	+2	+3	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	153	135	24	4	0	3	13	49	5	2	0	178	275	274	549	96	253	32	8	244	45	-10	+0	-1	+3	+4	-0.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	574	102	17	0	13	55	208	21	8	0	178	274	275	549	98	252	32	8	244	45	-40	+2	-3	+12	+18	-1.2
Career	—			—	1767	1554	260	37	3	38	136	631	61	13	1	167	261	268	529	101	248	36	8	241	43	-114	+2	-2	+32	+50	-3.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	572	96	14	1	14	50	232	22	5	0	168	261	269	530	101	248	36	8	241	43	-42	+1	-1	+12	+18	-1.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	22	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	29	24	5	2	1	0	4	15	1	0	1	208	345	375	720	167	556	52	14	328	109	+0	-0	—	—	+1	0.1
2022	23	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	321	283	62	13	2	8	24	108	11	1	0	219	305	364	669	145	320	34	7	301	89	-4	+0	—	—	+9	0.5
2023	24	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	49	37	11	1	0	3	10	8	2	0	0	297	469	568	1.037	270	308	16	20	455	207	+6	+0	—	—	+1	0.7
2023	24	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	364	313	69	9	0	18	39	101	9	6	0	220	324	422	746	201	260	28	11	332	112	+5	+1	—	—	+10	1.7
2024	25	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	300	247	49	10	0	4	30	68	19	0	0	198	331	287	619	89	253	23	10	292	82	-6	+0	—	—	+8	0.2
2025	26	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	99	80	7	1	0	1	16	30	2	0	0	87	255	138	393	50	120	30	16	207	17	-9	+0	—	—	+3	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Mat Nelson (OGILVIE)	27	32	35	42	49	177/269/275	98	257	3	1	33%	8%	54	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Dominic Miroglio 2022 · AA	27	40	43→45	43→40	42	200/265/312	112	284	10	5	32%	7%	59	-1.1	218/285/362	144	262	15	6	22%	8%	81	+0.4	201/267/376	175	208	21	2	16%	7%	72	-0.1
✕Matt Whatley 2023 · AAA	27	40→36	41→40	42→50	40	201/255/292	91	279	10	9	31%	6%	49	-1.8	189/252/290	101	263	12	11	31%	6%	47	-1.9	154/225/240	86	212	12	11	33%	7%	22	-1.3
✕Caleb Hamilton 2022 · AAA	27	35	44→45	47→45	44	179/260/291	112	277	12	9	38%	10%	52	-1.6	180/266/322	142	275	19	6	39%	10%	63	-0.8	145/239/282	137	205	21	3	40%	10%	39	-0.8
✕Christian Kelley 2021 · AAA	27	38	45→40	47→30	40	194/250/312	118	257	13	5	29%	6%	53	-1.5	231/295/334	103	322	9	8	29%	8%	76	+0.1	254/328/320	66	364	4	0	28%	9%	87	+0.2
✕Adam Donachie 2011 · AAA	27	37	39→45	35→30	44	183/245/265	82	250	7	3	29%	7%	38	-2.6	198/262/311	113	277	12	6	31%	8%	57	-1.2	154/239/279	125	213	17	0	35%	10%	37	-0.7
✕Renae Martinez 2021 · AA	27	41→31	42→45	44→40	43	201/265/299	98	272	10	4	29%	7%	56	-1.3	196/265/308	112	315	11	8	38%	8%	58	-1.2	136/219/254	118	227	12	6	43%	8%	22	-1.0
✕Jorge Saez 2017 · AA	26	37	45	44→30	40	191/250/309	118	275	13	4	34%	7%	52	-1.6	208/275/344	136	298	17	5	34%	8%	72	-0.2	192/268/324	132	267	19	2	34%	9%	62	-0.3
✕Dan Conway 2007 · AAA	27	40	42→45	45→30	41	200/261/302	102	271	9	5	29%	6%	55	-1.4	203/259/306	103	282	10	7	30%	6%	54	-1.4	152/213/213	61	217	8	0	32%	5%	9	-1.0
✕Alberto Concepcion 2008 · AAA	27	40	45	39→30	40	206/264/329	124	272	13	3	29%	6%	63	-0.9	226/290/352	126	285	13	6	25%	6%	80	+0.4	235/305/345	109	291	11	2	22%	7%	83	+0.2
✕Jeremy Farrell 2014 · AAA	27	40→36	41→45	42→45	39	193/263/288	95	280	8	4	32%	6%	53	-1.5	204/257/298	94	313	6	5	35%	5%	52	-1.6	202/249/291	88	321	4	3	36%	4%	43	-0.9
✕Connor Justus 2021 · AA	26	35→37	37→40	43→45	42	172/248/244	72	250	5	8	31%	7%	35	-2.8	192/256/268	76	294	6	7	34%	7%	43	-2.2	166/232/217	51	261	3	3	35%	7%	17	-2.1
✕Stephen McGee 2017 · AAA	26	40	38→40	44→30	45	193/269/273	80	275	6	4	30%	8%	50	-1.7	204/290/316	112	313	11	4	35%	10%	71	-0.3	189/289/303	113	293	12	0	36%	12%	63	-0.3
✕Alvin Colina 2009 · AAA	27	39	45	46→40	37	203/247/323	120	271	13	5	30%	4%	54	-1.4	212/263/336	124	283	14	6	29%	5%	64	-0.8	200/254/317	117	262	14	2	29%	5%	53	-0.6
✕Chase Pinder 2022 · AA	26	39	43→45	44→45	46	197/280/304	107	271	12	5	30%	8%	64	-0.8	229/320/373	144	297	15	10	26%	11%	98	+1.6	224/323/376	152	290	16	11	26%	12%	98	+0.8
✕Quincy McAfee 2023 · AA	25	38	43→45	42→45	46	189/279/295	106	260	11	6	30%	9%	62	-0.9	198/275/331	133	251	15	10	27%	7%	69	-0.4	185/264/327	142	224	17	12	25%	7%	61	-0.5
✕David Masters 2019 · A	26	37→36	40→45	38→40	43	186/256/272	86	260	8	2	30%	8%	45	-2.1	211/273/354	143	292	17	4	32%	7%	73	-0.1	201/257/381	180	262	26	2	34%	6%	69	-0.1
✕Jake Lowery 2017 · AA	27	36	44→45	47→30	43	185/254/299	114	263	11	5	33%	8%	51	-1.7	195/267/300	105	315	10	6	38%	9%	56	-1.3	118/199/170	52	253	3	0	50%	9%	-6	-1.3
✕Brian Serven 2021 · AA	26	36	43→45	43→30	39	187/243/298	110	248	11	5	29%	5%	46	-2.0	186/244/314	128	236	16	4	28%	6%	51	-1.7	224/307/333	109	327	9	1	31%	9%	79	+0.1
✕Cael Brockmeyer 2018 · AAA	26	36→38	45	47→40	37	189/244/308	119	264	14	4	33%	5%	49	-1.8	215/272/313	98	325	9	8	35%	5%	62	-0.9	241/300/316	75	381	6	5	36%	5%	71	-0.1
✕Matt Pagnozzi 2010 · AAA	27	41	39→45	43→40	39	201/252/282	81	282	8	4	31%	5%	45	-2.1	214/275/299	85	301	7	3	29%	7%	59	-1.1	208/275/286	79	292	6	0	29%	7%	53	-0.7