Mat Nelson
C Chattanooga Lookouts| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24 | AA/A+CIN | 413 | .229/.341/.437 | 21 | 6 | 66 | — | .184/.271/.343 |
| 2024 | 25 | AACIN | 300 | .198/.331/.287 | 4 | 0 | 45 | — | .168/.280/.230 |
| 2025 | 26 | AACIN | 99 | .088/.255/.138 | 1 | 0 | -12 | — | .081/.194/.128 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 28 | MLBCIN | 2 | .201/.280/.319 | 0 | 0 | 68 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ23% MLB | 29 | MLBCIN | 27 | .201/.279/.317 | 1 | 0 | 68 | -0.0 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | — | 29 | 24 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 208 | 345 | 375 | 720 | 167 | 556 | 52 | 14 | 328 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | — | 321 | 283 | 62 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 24 | 108 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 219 | 305 | 364 | 669 | 145 | 320 | 34 | 7 | 301 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 49 | 37 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 297 | 469 | 568 | 1.037 | 270 | 308 | 16 | 20 | 455 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | — | 364 | 313 | 69 | 9 | 0 | 18 | 39 | 101 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 220 | 324 | 422 | 746 | 201 | 260 | 28 | 11 | 332 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 300 | 247 | 49 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 30 | 68 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 198 | 331 | 287 | 619 | 89 | 253 | 23 | 10 | 292 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 99 | 80 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 87 | 255 | 138 | 393 | 50 | 120 | 30 | 16 | 207 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 29 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 80 | 207 | 120 | 327 | 40 | 480 | 72 | 10 | 181 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 321 | 289 | 49 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 131 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 170 | 245 | 273 | 519 | 104 | 264 | 41 | 6 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 49 | 41 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 268 | 388 | 512 | 900 | 244 | 283 | 20 | 12 | 370 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 364 | 325 | 56 | 6 | 0 | 14 | 27 | 131 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 172 | 255 | 320 | 575 | 148 | 225 | 36 | 7 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 300 | 256 | 43 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 82 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 168 | 280 | 230 | 511 | 62 | 221 | 27 | 7 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 99 | 86 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 36 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 81 | 194 | 128 | 322 | 47 | 105 | 36 | 10 | 150 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 29 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 80 | 207 | 120 | 327 | 40 | 500 | 72 | 10 | 181 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ RAW | Dayton Dragons | — | 29 | 24 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 208 | 345 | 375 | 720 | 167 | 556 | 52 | 14 | 328 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 321 | 289 | 49 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 131 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 170 | 245 | 273 | 519 | 104 | 279 | 41 | 6 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ RAW | Dayton Dragons | — | 321 | 283 | 62 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 24 | 108 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 219 | 305 | 364 | 669 | 145 | 320 | 34 | 7 | 301 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 413 | 366 | 67 | 7 | 0 | 17 | 33 | 142 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 183 | 271 | 342 | 612 | 158 | 239 | 34 | 8 | 265 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 413 | 350 | 80 | 10 | 0 | 21 | 49 | 109 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 229 | 341 | 437 | 779 | 209 | 266 | 26 | 12 | 347 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 300 | 256 | 43 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 82 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 168 | 280 | 230 | 511 | 62 | 230 | 27 | 7 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA RAW | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 300 | 247 | 49 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 30 | 68 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 198 | 331 | 287 | 619 | 89 | 253 | 23 | 10 | 292 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 99 | 86 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 36 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 81 | 194 | 128 | 322 | 47 | 120 | 36 | 10 | 150 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA RAW | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 99 | 80 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 87 | 255 | 138 | 393 | 50 | 120 | 30 | 16 | 207 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 29 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 80 | 207 | 120 | 327 | 40 | 480 | 72 | 10 | 181 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 321 | 289 | 49 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 131 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 170 | 245 | 273 | 519 | 104 | 264 | 41 | 6 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 413 | 366 | 67 | 7 | 0 | 17 | 33 | 142 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 183 | 271 | 342 | 612 | 158 | 232 | 34 | 8 | 265 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 300 | 257 | 43 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 82 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 280 | 230 | 510 | 62 | 221 | 27 | 7 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 99 | 87 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 36 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 80 | 194 | 126 | 320 | 46 | 105 | 36 | 10 | 150 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 300 | 257 | 43 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 82 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 280 | 230 | 510 | 62 | 221 | 27 | 7 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 99 | 87 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 36 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 80 | 194 | 126 | 320 | 46 | 105 | 36 | 10 | 150 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | CIN | 2% | 200 | 178 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 60 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 199 | 279 | 312 | 591 | 113 | 272 | 30 | 8 | 269 | 68 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +4 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | CIN | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 201 | 280 | 319 | 599 | 118 | 273 | 50 | 0 | 272 | 68 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | CIN | 23% | 120 | 108 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 36 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 199 | 278 | 311 | 589 | 112 | 271 | 30 | 8 | 268 | 68 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | CIN | 23% | 27 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 201 | 279 | 317 | 597 | 116 | 272 | 30 | 7 | 271 | 68 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 27 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 296 | 375 | 671 | 167 | 267 | 30 | 7 | 271 | 48 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 578 | 120 | 24 | 0 | 24 | 48 | 193 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 295 | 374 | 669 | 166 | 266 | 30 | 7 | 271 | 48 | -25 | +0 | -8 | +12 | +14 | -0.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1366 | 1205 | 204 | 31 | 3 | 31 | 101 | 473 | 48 | 7 | 1 | 169 | 261 | 277 | 538 | 108 | 244 | 35 | 7 | 239 | 48 | -8 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +4 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 573 | 97 | 15 | 1 | 15 | 48 | 225 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 169 | 260 | 277 | 538 | 108 | 243 | 35 | 7 | 239 | 48 | -25 | +0 | -4 | +12 | +14 | -0.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 99 PAwOBA .205 → .150 (−56)K% 30.3% → 36.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.30% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.16% | ÷1.087 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 9.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.02% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 1.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷0.963 | ×0.920 | ×0.952 | ×0.988 | 8.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.00% | ÷1.092 | ×0.910 | ×0.952 | ×0.988 | 1.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.001 | ×0.880 | ×0.952 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.00% | ÷1.021 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 1.55% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 93, 2B 118, 3B 100, K 102, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.
Result: wOBA .205 → .150; ISO .050 → .040; BABIP .120 → .105. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 300 PAwOBA .288 → .235 (−54)K% 22.7% → 27.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.67% | ÷1.005 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷0.970 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 7.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.33% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 5.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.55% | ÷0.964 | ×0.920 | ×0.972 | ×0.998 | 18.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.59% | ÷1.236 | ×0.910 | ×0.972 | ×0.998 | 3.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.001 | ×0.880 | ×0.972 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.23% | ÷1.089 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.64% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 93, 2B 147, 3B 100, K 101, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.
Result: wOBA .288 → .235; ISO .089 → .065; BABIP .253 → .221. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Dayton Dragons · 364 PAwOBA .325 → .251 (−74)K% 27.7% → 36.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.75% | ÷0.975 | ×1.270 | — | — | 36.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.71% | ÷1.020 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 7.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.47% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 1.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.81% | ÷0.979 | ×0.920 | ×0.975 | ×0.988 | 17.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.25% | ÷1.027 | ×0.810 | ×0.975 | ×0.988 | 3.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.916 | ×0.850 | ×0.975 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.49% | ÷0.951 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 7.06% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 96, 2B 105, 3B 83, K 95, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.
Result: wOBA .325 → .251; ISO .201 → .155; BABIP .260 → .225. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 49 PAwOBA .444 → .370 (−75)K% 16.3% → 20.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.33% | ÷0.961 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.41% | ÷1.069 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 13.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.08% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 3.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.14% | ÷0.986 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 22.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.45% | ÷1.004 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.012 | 3.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.34% | ÷1.017 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 8.24% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 97, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 92, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .444 → .370; ISO .270 → .231; BABIP .308 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Dayton Dragons · 321 PAwOBA .295 → .223 (−73)K% 33.6% → 40.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.64% | ÷1.047 | ×1.270 | — | — | 40.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.48% | ÷0.958 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 5.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.43% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 2.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.29% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | ×0.984 | ×0.998 | 20.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.43% | ÷1.217 | ×0.810 | ×0.984 | ×0.998 | 4.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.14% | ÷1.028 | ×0.850 | ×0.984 | ×0.998 | 0.93% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.57% | ÷1.058 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 3.45% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 100, 2B 143, 3B 106, K 109, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.
Result: wOBA .295 → .223; ISO .145 → .099; BABIP .320 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Dayton Dragons · 29 PAwOBA .321 → .181 (−140)K% 51.7% → 70.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 51.72% | ÷0.986 | ×1.350 | — | — | 70.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.79% | ÷1.008 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 9.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.45% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.012 | 2.83% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.061 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.012 | 19.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.011 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.012 | 18.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 11.11% | ÷0.900 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.012 | 10.24% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.960 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 112, 2B 102, 3B 80, K 97, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .321 → .181; ISO .167 → .078; BABIP .556 → .480. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).