Mat NelsonC
Chattanooga Lookouts
Age 27
R/R
5'11" / 209 lbs
AA
HR +9%K -4%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.2 · 2027
wRC+†65
AVG/OBP/SLG.189 / .280 / .303
PA136
HR3
K%33
BB%8
MLB%2%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
31→31
PWR
35→35
SPD
42→42
EYE
49→49
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2028
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | — | — | — |
| 2034 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $0.6M | $-5M | -$6M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 29 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .120 | .241 | .240 | .481 | .120 | .750 | 72 | 10 | .181 | -3 | -3 | -0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 321 | 289 | 49 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 131 | 11 | 1 | 0 | .170 | .245 | .273 | .519 | .104 | .279 | 41 | 6 | .223 | 29 | -26 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +9 | -1.1 |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | 2 teams | 413 | 366 | 67 | 7 | 0 | 17 | 33 | 144 | 11 | 6 | 0 | .183 | .271 | .342 | .612 | .158 | .242 | 35 | 8 | .270 | 65 | -17 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +12 | 0.4 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 300 | 256 | 42 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 88 | 19 | 0 | 0 | .164 | .277 | .227 | .504 | .062 | .232 | 29 | 7 | .234 | 37 | -21 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +8 | -0.8 |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 99 | 86 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 39 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .070 | .184 | .116 | .300 | .047 | .106 | 39 | 10 | .152 | -25 | -14 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | -1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 136 | 120 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 44 | 4 | 1 | 0 | .192 | .281 | .300 | .581 | .108 | .268 | 32 | 8 | .270 | 65 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB 9% | CIN | 207 | 182 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 66 | 6 | 2 | 0 | .192 | .283 | .308 | .591 | .115 | .271 | 32 | 8 | .275 | 68 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB 19% | CIN | 262 | 231 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 82 | 7 | 2 | 0 | .199 | .288 | .320 | .609 | .121 | .272 | 31 | 8 | .276 | 70 | -9 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +7 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB 29% | CIN | 300 | 264 | 53 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 94 | 8 | 2 | 0 | .201 | .290 | .322 | .612 | .121 | .271 | 31 | 8 | .276 | 69 | -10 | +0 | -2 | +5 | +8 | 0.2 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB 40% | CIN | 294 | 260 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 24 | 92 | 8 | 2 | 0 | .200 | .288 | .323 | .611 | .123 | .270 | 31 | 8 | .273 | 67 | -11 | +0 | -3 | +5 | +8 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB 49% | CIN | 277 | 245 | 47 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 89 | 7 | 1 | 0 | .192 | .280 | .298 | .578 | .106 | .269 | 32 | 8 | .268 | 64 | -11 | +0 | -4 | +5 | +8 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB 63% | CIN | 248 | 220 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 81 | 6 | 1 | 0 | .186 | .272 | .286 | .559 | .100 | .267 | 33 | 8 | .263 | 60 | -11 | +0 | -4 | +4 | +7 | -0.4 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB 81% | CIN | 206 | 182 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 69 | 5 | 1 | 0 | .181 | .270 | .275 | .544 | .093 | .265 | 33 | 8 | .257 | 55 | -11 | +0 | -5 | +4 | +6 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3092 | 2726 | 497 | 80 | 6 | 70 | 244 | 1040 | 95 | 19 | 1 | .182 | .273 | .293 | .566 | .111 | .261 | 34 | 8 | .257 | 55 | -157 | +3 | -20 | +55 | +88 | -3.1 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 573 | 105 | 17 | 1 | 15 | 51 | 219 | 20 | 4 | 0 | .183 | .273 | .295 | .568 | .112 | .262 | 34 | 8 | .257 | 55 | -33 | +1 | -4 | +12 | +18 | -0.7 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 29 | 24 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .208 | .345 | .375 | .720 | .167 | .556 | 52 | 14 | .328 | 109 | +0 | -0 | — | — | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 321 | 283 | 62 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 24 | 108 | 11 | 1 | 0 | .219 | .305 | .364 | .669 | .145 | .320 | 34 | 7 | .301 | 89 | -4 | +0 | — | — | +9 | 0.5 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 49 | 37 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .297 | .469 | .568 | 1.037 | .270 | .308 | 16 | 20 | .455 | 207 | +6 | +0 | — | — | +1 | 0.7 |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 364 | 313 | 69 | 9 | 0 | 18 | 39 | 101 | 9 | 6 | 0 | .220 | .324 | .422 | .746 | .201 | .260 | 28 | 11 | .332 | 112 | +5 | +1 | — | — | +10 | 1.7 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 300 | 247 | 49 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 30 | 68 | 19 | 0 | 0 | .198 | .331 | .287 | .619 | .089 | .253 | 23 | 10 | .292 | 82 | -6 | +0 | — | — | +8 | 0.2 |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 99 | 80 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .087 | .255 | .138 | .393 | .050 | .120 | 30 | 16 | .207 | 17 | -9 | +0 | — | — | +3 | -0.7 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Mat Nelson (OGILVIE) | 27 | 31 | 35 | 42 | 49 | .189/.280/.303 | .114 | .268 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 8% | 65 | -0.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Dominic Miroglio 2022 · AA |
27 | 41 | 44→45 | 44→40 | 43 | .205/.269/.321 | .117 | .279 | 11 | 5 | 30% | 7% | 63 | -0.9 | .216/.284/.361 | .145 | .260 | 15 | 5 | 23% | 8% | 80 | +0.4 | .203/.270/.374 | .171 | .212 | 20 | 2 | 16% | 7% | 72 | -0.1 |
|
✕Adam Donachie 2010 · AA |
26 | 38 | 42→45 | 38→30 | 45 | .192/.261/.293 | .102 | .266 | 10 | 3 | 31% | 8% | 53 | -1.5 | .188/.252/.282 | .094 | .260 | 9 | 3 | 30% | 8% | 46 | -2.0 | .160/.224/.240 | .080 | .215 | 9 | 0 | 29% | 7% | 21 | -1.5 |
|
✕Chase Pinder 2022 · AA |
26 | 38 | 42→45 | 43→45 | 44 | .190/.273/.285 | .095 | .272 | 10 | 5 | 32% | 8% | 56 | -1.3 | .226/.321/.370 | .144 | .293 | 15 | 10 | 26% | 11% | 98 | +1.6 | .221/.324/.370 | .149 | .286 | 16 | 11 | 27% | 12% | 97 | +0.8 |
|
✕Zack Short 2022 · MLB |
27 | 36→39 | 49→50 | 47→45 | 49 | .192/.289/.338 | .146 | .258 | 18 | 7 | 32% | 10% | 77 | +0.1 | .192/.286/.318 | .126 | .265 | 14 | 10 | 31% | 11% | 70 | -0.3 | .179/.280/.288 | .109 | .251 | 11 | 11 | 31% | 12% | 58 | -0.7 |
|
✕JJ Schwarz 2022 · AA |
26 | 38 | 44→45 | 47→30 | 44 | .195/.260/.302 | .108 | .268 | 12 | 4 | 31% | 8% | 54 | -1.4 | .216/.284/.346 | .130 | .306 | 15 | 4 | 32% | 9% | 76 | +0.0 | .206/.279/.334 | .128 | .290 | 16 | 1 | 33% | 9% | 68 | -0.3 |
|
✕Michael Papierski 2023 · MLB |
27 | 41 | 42→40 | 38→40 | 50 | .200/.286/.300 | .100 | .257 | 10 | 4 | 25% | 9% | 66 | -0.6 | .211/.290/.320 | .109 | .273 | 11 | 4 | 25% | 9% | 72 | -0.2 | .206/.291/.312 | .106 | .268 | 11 | 1 | 26% | 10% | 69 | -0.2 |
|
✕Alberto Concepcion 2008 · AAA |
27 | 41 | 45 | 39→30 | 40 | .208/.265/.328 | .120 | .277 | 13 | 4 | 29% | 6% | 63 | -0.9 | .225/.288/.352 | .127 | .285 | 13 | 5 | 25% | 6% | 79 | +0.3 | .235/.304/.347 | .113 | .289 | 11 | 2 | 22% | 7% | 83 | +0.2 |
|
✕Gavin Collins 2022 · AAA |
27 | 41 | 44→45 | 43→40 | 44 | .207/.270/.318 | .111 | .255 | 12 | 5 | 24% | 6% | 63 | -0.9 | .215/.284/.339 | .124 | .270 | 15 | 6 | 25% | 7% | 75 | -0.0 | .207/.269/.313 | .106 | .237 | 12 | 3 | 18% | 6% | 59 | -0.4 |
|
✕Ryan Ortiz 2014 · AAA |
26 | 40 | 43→45 | 46→40 | 47 | .199/.281/.306 | .107 | .269 | 11 | 4 | 29% | 9% | 65 | -0.7 | .203/.295/.294 | .091 | .287 | 7 | 4 | 29% | 10% | 67 | -0.5 | .185/.302/.243 | .058 | .271 | 3 | 0 | 28% | 13% | 55 | -0.7 |
|
✕Renae Martinez 2021 · AA |
27 | 42→32 | 43→50 | 44→40 | 43 | .208/.271/.314 | .106 | .276 | 10 | 3 | 28% | 7% | 62 | -0.9 | .195/.264/.310 | .115 | .308 | 11 | 8 | 37% | 8% | 58 | -1.2 | .139/.221/.264 | .125 | .227 | 13 | 6 | 43% | 8% | 26 | -0.9 |
|
✕Joe DeCarlo 2021 · AA |
27 | 40→38 | 43→50 | 47→30 | 40 | .197/.265/.308 | .111 | .291 | 11 | 5 | 34% | 7% | 58 | -1.2 | .199/.260/.292 | .093 | .305 | 9 | 6 | 35% | 7% | 51 | -1.7 | .163/.224/.224 | .061 | .249 | 8 | 0 | 36% | 7% | 16 | -1.3 |
|
✕Davis Wendzel 2023 · AAA |
26 | 35→28 | 49→50 | 43→40 | 41 | .191/.255/.331 | .140 | .253 | 18 | 5 | 32% | 7% | 60 | -1.0 | .195/.273/.341 | .146 | .245 | 19 | 5 | 28% | 8% | 71 | -0.3 | .191/.275/.335 | .144 | .229 | 19 | 4 | 26% | 8% | 68 | -0.4 |
|
✕Stephen McGee 2018 · AAA |
27 | 43 | 43→40 | 45→30 | 48 | .206/.290/.315 | .108 | .293 | 10 | 4 | 31% | 10% | 70 | -0.3 | .202/.285/.308 | .106 | .327 | 10 | 6 | 37% | 10% | 66 | -0.6 | .131/.233/.187 | .055 | .264 | 3 | 0 | 46% | 11% | 12 | -0.9 |
|
✕Brad Davis 2010 · AAA |
27 | 40 | 46→50 | 42→45 | 44 | .203/.262/.340 | .136 | .259 | 13 | 3 | 27% | 7% | 65 | -0.7 | .216/.268/.339 | .123 | .281 | 12 | 5 | 26% | 6% | 66 | -0.6 | .213/.264/.319 | .106 | .279 | 10 | 4 | 26% | 6% | 55 | -0.8 |
|
✕Jorge Saez 2018 · AA |
27 | 39 | 48→45 | 46→30 | 42 | .203/.267/.339 | .136 | .286 | 17 | 4 | 34% | 8% | 67 | -0.5 | .210/.276/.341 | .131 | .299 | 17 | 6 | 33% | 8% | 71 | -0.3 | .174/.247/.285 | .110 | .242 | 17 | 3 | 34% | 8% | 42 | -0.6 |
|
✕Jeremy Farrell 2014 · AAA |
27 | 42→38 | 41→45 | 43→45 | 39 | .204/.271/.301 | .098 | .292 | 8 | 4 | 32% | 6% | 59 | -1.1 | .205/.260/.301 | .096 | .309 | 7 | 5 | 34% | 5% | 53 | -1.5 | .201/.247/.287 | .087 | .313 | 4 | 3 | 35% | 4% | 41 | -0.9 |
|
✕David Masters 2021 · AA |
28 | 42→36 | 46→45 | 42→40 | 43 | .212/.279/.339 | .128 | .290 | 14 | 3 | 31% | 8% | 72 | -0.2 | .215/.274/.369 | .154 | .312 | 19 | 8 | 36% | 7% | 78 | +0.2 | .170/.231/.347 | .178 | .226 | 28 | 6 | 39% | 6% | 50 | -0.4 |
|
✕Hamlet Marte 2021 · AA |
27 | 40 | 43→45 | 44→45 | 39 | .198/.255/.304 | .106 | .297 | 11 | 5 | 36% | 7% | 52 | -1.6 | .193/.251/.287 | .094 | .336 | 9 | 7 | 42% | 7% | 46 | -2.0 | .147/.210/.229 | .082 | .244 | 10 | 4 | 42% | 7% | 11 | -0.9 |
|
✕Grayson Greiner 2021 · MLB |
28 | 40 | 46→45 | 45→30 | 44 | .206/.272/.331 | .125 | .276 | 15 | 4 | 30% | 8% | 66 | -0.6 | .196/.260/.306 | .110 | .334 | 12 | 5 | 42% | 7% | 55 | -1.4 | .177/.244/.263 | .086 | .329 | 9 | 1 | 46% | 8% | 34 | -0.9 |
|
✕Riley Adams 2023 · MLB |
27 | 42 | 50 | 43→40 | 43 | .209/.295/.363 | .155 | .298 | 17 | 4 | 34% | 8% | 86 | +0.8 | .225/.297/.384 | .159 | .313 | 17 | 4 | 32% | 7% | 92 | +1.2 | .221/.291/.378 | .157 | .312 | 18 | 2 | 33% | 7% | 84 | +0.3 |