Mat Nelson — OGILVIE

Mat NelsonC Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 27 R/R 5'11" / 209 lbs AA HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 136 proj PA

wRC+†61

AVG/OBP/SLG.180 / .274 / .278

PA12

HR0

K%32

BB%8

ISO98

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 34

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER34

scouting grade only

EYE49

scouting grade only

SPEED42

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	22	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	29	24	5	2	1	0	4	15	1	0	1	208	345	375	720	167	556	52	14	328	108	+0	-0	—	—	+1	0.1
2022	23	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	321	283	62	13	2	8	24	108	11	1	0	219	305	364	669	145	320	34	7	301	90	-4	+0	—	—	+7	0.3
2023	24	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	49	37	11	1	0	3	10	8	2	0	0	297	469	568	1.037	270	308	16	20	455	194	+5	+0	—	—	+1	0.7
2023	24	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	364	313	69	9	0	18	39	101	9	6	0	220	324	422	746	201	260	28	11	332	111	+5	+1	—	—	+8	1.4
2024	25	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	300	247	49	10	0	4	30	68	19	0	0	198	331	287	619	89	253	23	10	292	84	-6	+0	—	—	+6	0.1
2025	26	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	99	80	7	1	0	1	16	30	2	0	0	87	255	138	393	50	120	30	16	207	26	-9	+0	—	—	+2	-0.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	22	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	29	25	2	1	0	0	3	21	1	0	1	80	207	120	327	40	474	72	10	180	8	-3	-0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2022	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	321	289	46	8	1	6	18	139	11	1	0	159	236	256	492	97	264	43	6	216	32	-26	+0	—	—	+7	-1.9
2023	24	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	49	41	10	1	0	2	6	10	2	0	0	244	367	415	782	171	282	20	12	366	134	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2023	24	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	364	325	54	6	0	14	27	140	9	6	0	166	249	314	563	148	227	38	7	249	55	-20	+1	—	—	+8	-1.1
2024	25	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	300	256	43	7	0	3	21	82	19	0	0	168	280	230	511	62	223	27	7	236	46	-19	+0	—	—	+6	-1.3
2025	26	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	99	86	7	1	0	1	10	36	2	0	0	81	194	128	322	47	108	36	10	152	-11	-13	+0	—	—	+2	-1.1
2021	22	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	29	25	2	1	0	0	3	21	1	0	1	80	207	120	327	40	500	72	10	180	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	—	29	24	5	2	1	0	4	15	1	0	1	208	345	375	720	167	556	52	14	328	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	321	289	46	8	1	6	18	139	11	1	0	159	236	256	492	97	274	43	6	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	—	321	283	62	13	2	8	24	108	11	1	0	219	305	364	669	145	320	34	7	301	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	413	365	64	7	0	16	34	150	11	6	0	175	266	326	592	151	239	36	8	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	413	350	80	10	0	21	49	109	11	6	0	229	341	437	779	209	266	26	12	347	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	300	256	43	7	0	3	21	82	19	0	0	168	280	230	511	62	230	27	7	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	300	247	49	10	0	4	30	68	19	0	0	198	331	287	619	89	253	23	10	292	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	99	86	7	1	0	1	10	36	2	0	0	81	194	128	322	47	120	36	10	152	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	99	80	7	1	0	1	16	30	2	0	0	87	255	138	393	50	120	30	16	207	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	29	25	2	1	0	0	3	21	1	0	1	80	207	120	327	40	474	72	10	180	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	321	289	46	8	1	6	18	139	11	1	0	159	236	256	492	97	264	43	6	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	413	365	64	7	0	16	34	150	11	6	0	175	266	326	592	151	234	36	8	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	300	257	43	7	0	3	21	82	19	0	0	167	280	230	510	62	223	27	7	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	99	87	7	1	0	1	10	36	2	0	0	80	194	126	320	46	108	36	10	152	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	413	365	64	7	0	16	34	150	11	6	0	175	266	326	592	151	234	36	8	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	300	257	43	7	0	3	21	82	19	0	0	167	280	230	510	62	223	27	7	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	99	87	7	1	0	1	10	36	2	0	0	80	194	126	320	46	108	36	10	152	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	27	MLB MLE	CIN	2%	12	11	1	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	91	167	91	258		258	33	8	259	61	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	CIN	27%	207	182	34	6	0	4	17	65	6	2	0	187	278	286	564	99	262	31	8	264	65	-9	+0	-1	+4	+4	-0.1
2028	29	MLB MLE	CIN	37%	262	231	45	8	1	5	22	80	7	3	0	195	285	303	588	108	263	31	8	267	67	-10	+1	-1	+5	+6	-0.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	CIN	43%	300	264	51	9	1	6	25	92	8	3	1	193	283	303	586	110	264	31	8	267	67	-12	+0	-2	+5	+6	-0.2
2027	28	MLB CTX	CIN	27%	56	49	9	2	0	1	5	17	2	1	0	184	286	286	571	102	265	30	9	247	65	-2	+0	-0	+1	+1	-0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	CIN	37%	97	86	16	3	0	2	8	30	3	1	0	186	278	291	569	105	266	31	8	251	67	-4	+0	-1	+2	+2	-0.0
2029	30	MLB CTX	CIN	43%	129	113	22	4	0	3	11	39	4	1	0	195	289	310	599	115	266	30	9	251	67	-5	+0	-1	+2	+3	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	282	248	47	9	0	6	24	86	9	3	0	190	285	298	583	109	261	30	9	250	52	-11	+1	-2	+5	+6	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	572	109	21	0	14	55	198	21	7	0	191	285	301	586	110	262	30	8	250	52	-26	+1	-4	+12	+14	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	1943	1709	293	47	3	41	151	669	65	15	2	171	264	274	539	103	249	34	8	245	52	-31	+1	-4	+14	+17	-0.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	572	99	16	1	14	51	224	22	5	1	173	267	278	545	105	251	34	8	245	52	-26	+1	-3	+12	+14	-0.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.4	285	6	3	191	280	296	+5	+4	0.2	0.2
/162	664	13	7	+11.9	+9.3	0.4	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Mat Nelson (OGILVIE)	27	35	34	42	49	180/274/278	97	258	3	1	32%	8%	61	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Adam Donachie 2010 · AA	26	39	41→45	37→30	46	194/263/291	96	266	9	3	29%	8%	58	-1.7	188/252/281	93	260	9	4	29%	8%	51	-2.2	158/222/233	74	214	8	0	29%	7%	28	-1.5
✕Matt Whatley 2023 · AAA	27	40→38	40	42→50	41	200/256/286	87	277	9	9	30%	7%	54	-2.0	188/252/288	100	262	11	11	31%	7%	53	-2.1	153/225/238	85	211	12	11	32%	7%	30	-1.3
✕Chase Pinder 2022 · AA	26	40	43→45	44→45	46	198/281/301	102	271	11	5	30%	8%	68	-1.0	227/321/361	134	295	13	10	25%	11%	96	+1.0	222/324/360	138	289	14	11	26%	12%	95	+0.5
✕Gavin Collins 2022 · AAA	27	40	43→45	44→40	44	202/271/309	107	256	12	6	25%	7%	65	-1.2	215/285/332	117	272	13	6	25%	7%	76	-0.4	204/266/298	94	236	10	3	18%	6%	59	-0.6
✕Matt Pagnozzi 2010 · AAA	27	41	39→40	43→40	39	202/254/282	80	282	8	4	30%	6%	52	-2.2	216/276/301	85	300	7	3	28%	7%	65	-1.2	210/276/290	80	290	6	0	28%	7%	60	-0.7
✕Quincy McAfee 2023 · AA	25	39	42→45	42→45	46	191/280/293	102	262	10	6	29%	9%	65	-1.2	199/277/327	128	250	14	10	25%	7%	72	-0.7	186/267/323	137	222	16	12	24%	7%	65	-0.7
✕Renae Martinez 2021 · AA	27	41→32	42→45	44→40	43	203/267/305	102	272	10	4	28%	7%	63	-1.4	200/269/317	117	306	11	8	36%	8%	66	-1.1	150/230/278	128	233	13	6	39%	8%	40	-0.8
✕Hamlet Marte 2021 · AA	27	40	42→45	44→45	39	197/254/295	99	296	10	6	35%	7%	55	-1.9	198/255/294	96	327	9	8	39%	7%	55	-1.9	157/217/238	81	251	10	4	40%	6%	26	-0.8
✕JJ Schwarz 2022 · AA	26	40	43→45	47→30	45	202/266/307	106	274	11	4	30%	8%	63	-1.4	220/287/341	121	307	13	4	31%	8%	78	-0.3	213/285/332	119	296	14	1	31%	9%	73	-0.4
✕Stephen McGee 2017 · AAA	26	40	38→40	44→30	45	194/269/271	78	275	6	4	30%	8%	56	-1.9	204/290/309	105	310	9	4	34%	10%	73	-0.6	190/290/293	103	292	10	0	35%	12%	67	-0.4
✕Jesus Alberto Vega 2009 · AAA	27	40	43→45	41→40	42	203/254/313	110	257	11	5	26%	6%	59	-1.6	223/283/338	115	276	12	3	23%	6%	76	-0.4	221/280/350	129	265	16	2	23%	6%	75	-0.2
✕Dominic Miroglio 2022 · AA	27	42	44→45	43→40	43	210/274/328	118	283	11	5	29%	7%	70	-0.8	219/287/362	143	261	15	6	21%	8%	83	+0.1	203/270/374	171	212	20	2	16%	7%	76	-0.2
✕Alberto Concepcion 2008 · AAA	27	41	44→45	39→30	41	206/264/322	116	269	12	3	28%	6%	65	-1.2	226/290/345	119	284	12	6	24%	6%	80	-0.1	235/305/338	103	289	10	2	21%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Jeremy Farrell 2014 · AAA	27	41→38	41→45	42→45	39	201/269/300	99	286	8	4	31%	6%	63	-1.4	208/263/302	94	308	6	5	33%	5%	60	-1.6	207/255/291	83	314	4	3	33%	4%	52	-0.9
✕Dan Conway 2007 · AAA	27	41	41→45	45→30	42	200/263/300	100	270	9	5	28%	6%	60	-1.6	203/262/304	101	281	10	7	30%	6%	60	-1.6	152/213/208	56	216	7	0	32%	5%	18	-1.0
✕David Masters 2019 · A	26	38→37	41→45	38→40	44	189/259/279	91	261	9	2	30%	8%	54	-2.0	210/273/346	136	290	16	4	32%	7%	74	-0.5	196/256/361	165	256	23	2	33%	6%	68	-0.3
✕Nick Quintana 2023 · AA	25	38→40	43→45	42→45	48	191/276/299	108	261	11	5	30%	10%	65	-1.2	196/278/300	104	279	9	7	31%	9%	66	-1.1	110/223/191	81	162	7	0	33%	9%	22	-1.0
✕Christian Kelley 2021 · AAA	27	38	42→40	48→30	40	191/248/295	104	256	10	5	29%	6%	53	-2.1	228/293/328	100	322	8	8	29%	8%	77	-0.3	245/316/306	61	355	3	0	29%	9%	80	-0.0
✕Jorge Saez 2017 · AA	26	38	45	44→30	41	196/255/316	120	274	13	4	33%	7%	60	-1.6	208/274/335	127	292	16	5	32%	8%	72	-0.7	190/265/307	117	260	16	2	32%	9%	62	-0.4
✕Steven Lerud 2012 · AAA	27	39→42	41→45	43→40	40	193/257/291	98	275	9	3	32%	6%	56	-1.9	204/280/293	89	301	7	4	32%	8%	65	-1.2	201/292/278	77	290	6	2	29%	9%	64	-0.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps