Cody Roberts
C El Paso Chihuahuas| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 27 | AAPHI | 239 | .214/.281/.349 | 6 | 2 | 38 | — | .177/.230/.273 |
| 2024 | 28 | AAAPHI | 160 | .290/.376/.406 | 1 | 2 | 74 | — | .243/.306/.340 |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA/AASD | 182 | .247/.328/.348 | 3 | 3 | 48 | — | .211/.265/.283 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 31 | MLBSD | 12 | .192/.260/.300 | 0 | 0 | 60 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 32 | MLBSD | 29 | .190/.257/.293 | 1 | 0 | 57 | -0.1 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 23 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 192 | 166 | 40 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 43 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 241 | 330 | 277 | 607 | 36 | 315 | 22 | 11 | 280 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 38 | 34 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 294 | 368 | 441 | 810 | 147 | 450 | 34 | 11 | 362 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 63 | 52 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 355 | 404 | 759 | 173 | 323 | 30 | 14 | 339 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 81 | 68 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 362 | 397 | 760 | 147 | 349 | 30 | 12 | 342 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 28 | 24 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 375 | 464 | 583 | 1.048 | 208 | 471 | 21 | 14 | 460 | 147 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 274 | 242 | 63 | 16 | 0 | 7 | 25 | 75 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 260 | 339 | 413 | 753 | 153 | 344 | 27 | 9 | 335 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 239 | 215 | 46 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 52 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 214 | 281 | 349 | 630 | 135 | 250 | 22 | 7 | 280 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 160 | 138 | 40 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 51 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 290 | 376 | 406 | 782 | 116 | 448 | 32 | 11 | 348 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 133 | 112 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 46 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 223 | 320 | 321 | 642 | 98 | 343 | 35 | 12 | 286 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 49 | 46 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 304 | 347 | 413 | 760 | 109 | 419 | 29 | 6 | 340 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 23 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 192 | 174 | 34 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 57 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 195 | 255 | 224 | 479 | 29 | 267 | 30 | 7 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 38 | 35 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 257 | 316 | 400 | 716 | 143 | 425 | 42 | 8 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 63 | 55 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 290 | 309 | 599 | 109 | 294 | 38 | 10 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 81 | 71 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 183 | 275 | 268 | 543 | 85 | 294 | 40 | 9 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 28 | 25 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 360 | 429 | 560 | 989 | 200 | 443 | 25 | 11 | 385 | 147 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 274 | 250 | 52 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 92 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 269 | 304 | 573 | 96 | 299 | 34 | 6 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 239 | 220 | 39 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 63 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 177 | 230 | 273 | 503 | 95 | 221 | 26 | 5 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 160 | 144 | 35 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 60 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 243 | 306 | 340 | 646 | 97 | 388 | 38 | 7 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 133 | 118 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 57 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 186 | 250 | 246 | 496 | 59 | 304 | 43 | 8 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 49 | 47 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 277 | 306 | 383 | 689 | 106 | 380 | 33 | 4 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 192 | 174 | 34 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 57 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 195 | 255 | 224 | 479 | 29 | 281 | 30 | 7 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A RAW | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 192 | 166 | 40 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 43 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 241 | 330 | 277 | 607 | 36 | 315 | 22 | 11 | 280 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 182 | 161 | 32 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 72 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 199 | 283 | 298 | 581 | 99 | 333 | 40 | 9 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 182 | 154 | 39 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 56 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 253 | 361 | 409 | 770 | 156 | 362 | 31 | 13 | 345 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 302 | 275 | 61 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 99 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 284 | 327 | 612 | 105 | 322 | 33 | 7 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 302 | 266 | 72 | 18 | 0 | 8 | 29 | 81 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 271 | 351 | 429 | 780 | 158 | 356 | 27 | 10 | 346 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 239 | 220 | 39 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 63 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 177 | 230 | 273 | 503 | 95 | 224 | 26 | 5 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA RAW | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 239 | 215 | 46 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 52 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 214 | 281 | 349 | 630 | 135 | 250 | 22 | 7 | 280 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 160 | 144 | 35 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 60 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 243 | 306 | 340 | 646 | 97 | 405 | 38 | 7 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA RAW | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 160 | 138 | 40 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 51 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 290 | 376 | 406 | 782 | 116 | 448 | 32 | 11 | 348 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 182 | 165 | 34 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 73 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 206 | 260 | 279 | 539 | 73 | 344 | 40 | 7 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 182 | 158 | 39 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 247 | 328 | 348 | 676 | 101 | 367 | 33 | 10 | 300 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 192 | 176 | 34 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 57 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 193 | 255 | 222 | 477 | 28 | 267 | 30 | 7 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 182 | 161 | 32 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 72 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 199 | 283 | 298 | 581 | 99 | 321 | 40 | 9 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 302 | 275 | 61 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 99 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 284 | 327 | 612 | 105 | 312 | 33 | 7 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 239 | 222 | 39 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 63 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 176 | 230 | 270 | 500 | 95 | 221 | 26 | 5 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 160 | 146 | 35 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 60 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 240 | 306 | 336 | 641 | 96 | 388 | 38 | 7 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 182 | 168 | 34 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 73 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 202 | 260 | 274 | 534 | 71 | 324 | 40 | 7 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 160 | 146 | 35 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 60 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 240 | 306 | 336 | 641 | 96 | 388 | 38 | 7 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 182 | 168 | 34 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 73 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 202 | 260 | 274 | 534 | 71 | 324 | 40 | 7 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB MLE | SD | 10% | 232 | 211 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 69 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 195 | 263 | 304 | 567 | 109 | 264 | 30 | 7 | 257 | 60 | -11 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB CTX | SD | 10% | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 260 | 300 | 560 | 108 | 258 | 33 | 8 | 254 | 60 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 32 | MLB MLE | SD | 27% | 105 | 95 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 193 | 259 | 297 | 557 | 105 | 261 | 30 | 8 | 253 | 57 | -5 | +0 | -4 | +2 | +2 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB CTX | SD | 27% | 29 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 257 | 293 | 550 | 103 | 256 | 31 | 7 | 250 | 57 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 29 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 185 | 241 | 333 | 575 | 148 | 235 | 31 | 7 | 250 | 55 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 605 | 111 | 22 | 0 | 22 | 45 | 202 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 183 | 240 | 329 | 569 | 145 | 234 | 31 | 7 | 250 | 55 | -33 | +0 | -22 | +12 | +14 | -3.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1484 | 1345 | 275 | 56 | 2 | 19 | 100 | 491 | 16 | 10 | 3 | 204 | 268 | 291 | 559 | 87 | 300 | 33 | 7 | 249 | 55 | -11 | +0 | -4 | +4 | +5 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 589 | 121 | 25 | 1 | 8 | 44 | 215 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 205 | 269 | 292 | 561 | 87 | 303 | 33 | 7 | 249 | 55 | -32 | +1 | -10 | +12 | +14 | -1.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 133 PAwOBA .285 → .226 (−59)K% 34.6% → 42.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.59% | ÷0.973 | ×1.200 | — | — | 42.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.03% | ÷1.054 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 7.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷0.999 | ×0.930 | ×1.009 | ×0.982 | 25.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.58% | ÷1.042 | ×0.830 | ×1.009 | ×0.982 | 5.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.009 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.03% | ÷0.981 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 2.12% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 100, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 95, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .285 → .226; ISO .098 → .073; BABIP .343 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AASan Antonio Missions · 49 PAwOBA .331 → .276 (−55)K% 28.6% → 33.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.57% | ÷1.054 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.12% | ÷1.020 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.958 | 4.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 37.50% | ÷0.964 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.958 | 34.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.963 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.12% | ÷1.036 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.958 | 2.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.12% | ÷0.950 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.958 | 2.52% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 93, 2B 93, 3B 107, K 111, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .331 → .276; ISO .109 → .087; BABIP .419 → .380. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 160 PAwOBA .341 → .278 (−63)K% 31.9% → 37.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.87% | ÷1.022 | ×1.200 | — | — | 37.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.62% | ÷1.021 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 7.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.25% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.89% | ÷0.985 | ×0.930 | ×0.955 | ×0.992 | 26.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.94% | ÷0.960 | ×0.830 | ×0.955 | ×0.992 | 12.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.955 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.15% | ÷0.989 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 0.81% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 97, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 104, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .341 → .278; ISO .116 → .092; BABIP .448 → .388. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAReading Fightin Phils · 239 PAwOBA .276 → .225 (−51)K% 21.8% → 26.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.76% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.69% | ÷0.975 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 4.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.67% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 1.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.79% | ÷1.017 | ×0.970 | ×0.985 | ×0.978 | 16.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.75% | ÷0.999 | ×0.860 | ×0.985 | ×0.978 | 5.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.005 | ×0.950 | ×0.985 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.68% | ÷1.050 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 2.67% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 103, 2B 100, 3B 101, K 100, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.
Result: wOBA .276 → .225; ISO .135 → .102; BABIP .250 → .221. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AABowie Baysox · 274 PAwOBA .329 → .257 (−72)K% 27.4% → 33.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.37% | ÷0.992 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.12% | ÷0.998 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 6.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.46% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 1.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.95% | ÷0.995 | ×0.970 | ×0.963 | ×0.988 | 22.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.58% | ÷1.055 | ×0.860 | ×0.963 | ×0.988 | 7.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.963 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.19% | ÷1.170 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 2.76% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 134, 1B 99, 2B 111, 3B 80, K 98, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.
Result: wOBA .329 → .257; ISO .153 → .105; BABIP .344 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAANorfolk Tides · 28 PAwOBA .448 → .385 (−62)K% 21.4% → 25.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.43% | ÷1.017 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.048 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 9.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷0.952 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 33.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 9.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.130 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.56% | ÷0.970 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 4.08% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 90, 2B 100, 3B 126, K 103, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .448 → .385; ISO .208 → .164; BABIP .471 → .443. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 81 PAwOBA .338 → .253 (−85)K% 29.6% → 39.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.63% | ÷1.002 | ×1.350 | — | — | 39.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.35% | ÷0.974 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 8.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.47% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.978 | 1.96% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.026 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.978 | 21.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷0.989 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.978 | 7.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.55% | ÷1.041 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.978 | 3.54% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 105, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 100, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .338 → .253; ISO .147 → .106; BABIP .349 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AABowie Baysox · 63 PAwOBA .331 → .257 (−74)K% 30.2% → 37.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.16% | ÷0.983 | ×1.220 | — | — | 37.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.065 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.998 | 9.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.59% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 1.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.21% | ÷0.978 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.998 | 20.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷0.995 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 7.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.06% | ÷1.258 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 3.75% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 152, 1B 96, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 97, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .331 → .257; ISO .173 → .121; BABIP .323 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).