Toby Welk
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 24 | AA/A+2 orgs | 439 | .226/.320/.391 | 13 | 8 | 50 | — | .183/.256/.304 |
| 2022 | 25 | AA/A+2 orgs | 179 | .248/.312/.416 | 5 | 0 | 53 | — | .199/.251/.326 |
| 2023 | 26 | A+/A2 orgs | 41 | .229/.341/.229 | 0 | 0 | 17 | — | .158/.220/.158 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 22 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 36 | 32 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 333 | 281 | 615 | 31 | 333 | 22 | 11 | 289 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 281 | 249 | 51 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 24 | 72 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 205 | 290 | 406 | 696 | 201 | 238 | 26 | 9 | 308 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 158 | 132 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 33 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 265 | 374 | 364 | 738 | 98 | 330 | 21 | 13 | 334 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 160 | 143 | 32 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 46 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 224 | 297 | 378 | 675 | 154 | 295 | 29 | 9 | 300 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 19 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 444 | 444 | 722 | 1.167 | 278 | 438 | 11 | 0 | 483 | 174 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 25 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 320 | 190 | 510 | 250 | 20 | 16 | 256 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 26 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 16 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 375 | 286 | 661 | 500 | 38 | 12 | 313 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 36 | 33 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 212 | 278 | 242 | 520 | 30 | 300 | 31 | 8 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 281 | 257 | 43 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 89 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 167 | 233 | 307 | 540 | 140 | 215 | 32 | 6 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 158 | 138 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 45 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 210 | 297 | 297 | 594 | 87 | 273 | 28 | 9 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 160 | 147 | 26 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 57 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 177 | 234 | 286 | 520 | 109 | 253 | 36 | 6 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 19 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 389 | 389 | 667 | 1.056 | 278 | 368 | 16 | 0 | 425 | 174 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 25 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 130 | 200 | 130 | 330 | 203 | 28 | 8 | 180 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 26 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 16 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 250 | 200 | 450 | 433 | 50 | 6 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 36 | 33 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 212 | 278 | 242 | 520 | 30 | 318 | 31 | 8 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A RAW | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 36 | 32 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 333 | 281 | 615 | 31 | 333 | 22 | 11 | 289 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 439 | 395 | 71 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 30 | 134 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 180 | 253 | 294 | 547 | 114 | 244 | 31 | 7 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 439 | 381 | 86 | 18 | 3 | 13 | 44 | 105 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 226 | 320 | 391 | 711 | 165 | 272 | 24 | 10 | 317 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 179 | 165 | 32 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 59 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 194 | 244 | 303 | 547 | 109 | 274 | 33 | 6 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 179 | 161 | 40 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 48 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 248 | 312 | 416 | 729 | 168 | 315 | 27 | 8 | 319 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 41 | 37 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 162 | 244 | 162 | 406 | 273 | 37 | 10 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 26 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 41 | 35 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 229 | 341 | 229 | 570 | 333 | 27 | 15 | 279 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 36 | 33 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 212 | 278 | 242 | 520 | 30 | 300 | 31 | 8 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 439 | 397 | 71 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 30 | 134 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 179 | 253 | 292 | 546 | 113 | 236 | 31 | 7 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 179 | 166 | 32 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 59 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 193 | 244 | 301 | 546 | 108 | 265 | 33 | 6 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 41 | 37 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 162 | 244 | 162 | 406 | 293 | 37 | 10 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 695 | 630 | 116 | 25 | 3 | 11 | 47 | 219 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 184 | 252 | 286 | 538 | 102 | 257 | 32 | 7 | 240 | 48 | -43 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +15 | -2.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 589 | 108 | 23 | 3 | 10 | 44 | 205 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 183 | 250 | 284 | 534 | 100 | 257 | 32 | 7 | 240 | 48 | -40 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -2.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 25 PAwOBA .251 → .180 (−72)K% 20.0% → 26.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.986 | ×1.310 | — | — | 26.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.00% | ÷0.982 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.968 | 9.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.037 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.968 | 20.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.980 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.912 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 107, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 97, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .251 → .180; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .250 → .203. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 16 PAwOBA .306 → .212 (−94)K% 37.5% → 50.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.50% | ÷1.008 | ×1.360 | — | — | 50.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.065 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.960 | 7.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 50.00% | ÷1.020 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.960 | 43.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.101 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.940 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.020 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 104, 2B 120, 3B 88, K 102, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.0 → −4.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .306 → .212; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .500 → .433. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AABowie Baysox · 160 PAwOBA .295 → .226 (−70)K% 28.7% → 35.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.75% | ÷0.992 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.75% | ÷0.998 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 6.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.62% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.56% | ÷0.995 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 17.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.31% | ÷1.055 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 7.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.12% | ÷1.170 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 2.74% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 134, 1B 99, 2B 111, 3B 80, K 98, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .295 → .226; ISO .154 → .105; BABIP .295 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 19 PAwOBA .494 → .425 (−69)K% 10.5% → 13.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.53% | ÷0.991 | ×1.310 | — | — | 13.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷0.966 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.25% | ÷0.980 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 27.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷0.955 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 9.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.964 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.029 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 5.23% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 96, 2B 91, 3B 93, K 98, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .494 → .425; ISO .278 → .233; BABIP .438 → .368. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AABowie Baysox · 281 PAwOBA .302 → .232 (−70)K% 25.6% → 31.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.62% | ÷0.983 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.54% | ÷1.065 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.012 | 5.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.14% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 1.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.12% | ÷0.978 | ×0.940 | ×0.978 | ×1.012 | 13.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.34% | ÷0.995 | ×0.870 | ×0.978 | ×1.012 | 6.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.13% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×0.978 | ×1.012 | 1.14% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.21% | ÷1.258 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 3.90% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 152, 1B 96, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 97, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .302 → .232; ISO .201 → .139; BABIP .238 → .215. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 158 PAwOBA .332 → .260 (−73)K% 20.9% → 28.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.89% | ÷1.002 | ×1.350 | — | — | 28.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.66% | ÷0.974 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 9.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.90% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 1.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷1.026 | ×0.910 | ×0.963 | ×0.988 | 23.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.05% | ÷0.989 | ×0.830 | ×0.963 | ×0.988 | 4.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.01% | ÷1.150 | ×0.820 | ×0.963 | ×0.988 | 0.68% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.02% | ÷1.041 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 1.59% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 105, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 100, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.
Result: wOBA .332 → .260; ISO .098 → .075; BABIP .330 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 36 PAwOBA .282 → .224 (−58)K% 22.2% → 29.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.22% | ÷1.013 | ×1.340 | — | — | 29.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.033 | ×0.660 | — | — | 7.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.17% | ÷1.009 | ×0.920 | — | — | 26.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.013 | ×0.820 | — | — | 3.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.973 | ×0.940 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.931 | ×0.820 | — | — | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 102, 2B 103, 3B 95, K 103, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .282 → .224; ISO .031 → .024; BABIP .333 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).