Riley Quick

P Cedar Rapids Kernels

Age 23 RHP 6'6" / 255 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.4 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP40OGV rank#187ETA2028MLB%4%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX3 levels	23	23	82	4.74	4.08	30.6%	13.4%	—	K 23.0% · BB 15.3% · FIP 5.53
2027PROJ	23	MLBMIN	1	1	4	4.67	4.67	23.1%	11.0%	0.0
2028PROJ45% MLB	24	MLBMIN	8	8	47	4.55	4.49	23.6%	10.0%	0.5
2029PROJ68% MLB	25	MLBMIN	13	13	74	4.44	4.37	23.9%	9.4%	0.9

Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$3M2032Arb-2$4M2033Arb-3$5M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 13, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 76%

CompsBrody McCullough (age 23) · Ryan Jensen (age 23) · CJ Van Eyk (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.67

FIP4.67

K%23.1%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%12.1%

Proj IP95

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 95 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$31M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$7M	+$6M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+1.2	$7M	+$5M
2032	Arb-2	$4M	+1.0	$5M	+$3M
2033	Arb-3	$5M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$9M		$27M	+$18M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	23	82	359	110	48	12	100%	3.6	23.0%	15.3%	7.7%	4.4%	4.74	5.53	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	23	82	359	110	48	12	100%	3.6	23.0%	15.3%	7.7%	4.4%	4.74	5.53	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	23	82	359	110	48	12	100%	3.6	30.6%	13.4%	17.3%	3.3%	4.74	4.08	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	MIN	1	1	4	17	4	2	1	100%	4.0	23.1%	11.0%	12.1%	3.2%	4.67	4.67	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIN	18	18	103	436	103	44	14	100%	5.7	23.6%	10.0%	13.6%	3.1%	4.54	4.48	+1.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIN	19	19	109	460	110	43	14	100%	5.7	23.9%	9.4%	14.5%	3.1%	4.43	4.36	+1.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIN	19	19	115	485	116	45	15	100%	6.0	24.0%	9.3%	14.7%	3.1%	4.37	4.34	+1.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIN	19	19	112	471	113	44	15	100%	5.9	23.9%	9.3%	14.6%	3.2%	4.37	4.37	+1.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	MIN	18	18	106	450	107	43	15	100%	5.9	23.8%	9.5%	14.3%	3.3%	4.42	4.46	+1.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	MIN	17	17	99	419	99	41	14	100%	5.8	23.5%	9.7%	13.9%	3.4%	4.52	4.59	+0.9
2034	30	MLB MLE	MIN	15	15	90	380	88	38	14	100%	6.0	23.2%	10.0%	13.2%	3.6%	4.67	4.77	+0.7
2035	31	MLB MLE	MIN	13	13	80	339	77	35	13	100%	6.2	22.8%	10.3%	12.5%	3.8%	4.85	4.97	+0.4
2036	32	MLB MLE	MIN	12	12	71	299	67	32	12	100%	5.9	22.4%	10.7%	11.6%	4.1%	5.06	5.19	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIN	8	8	47	198	47	20	6	100%	5.9	23.6%	10.0%	13.6%	3.2%	4.55	4.49	+0.5
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIN	13	13	74	312	75	29	10	100%	5.7	23.9%	9.4%	14.5%	3.1%	4.44	4.37	+0.9
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIN	15	15	92	388	93	36	12	100%	6.1	24.0%	9.3%	14.7%	3.1%	4.38	4.35	+1.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIN	16	16	96	405	97	38	13	100%	6.0	23.9%	9.3%	14.6%	3.2%	4.38	4.38	+1.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	MIN	16	16	95	401	95	38	13	100%	5.9	23.8%	9.5%	14.3%	3.3%	4.43	4.47	+1.0
2033	29	MLB CTX	MIN	15	15	90	380	89	37	13	100%	6.0	23.5%	9.7%	13.9%	3.4%	4.53	4.60	+0.9
2034	30	MLB CTX	MIN	14	14	83	350	81	35	13	100%	5.9	23.2%	10.0%	13.2%	3.6%	4.68	4.78	+0.6
2035	31	MLB CTX	MIN	12	12	75	317	72	33	12	100%	6.2	22.8%	10.3%	12.5%	3.8%	4.86	4.98	+0.4
2036	32	MLB CTX	MIN	11	11	66	279	62	30	11	100%	6.0	22.4%	10.7%	11.6%	4.1%	5.07	5.20	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		120	120	718	3030	712	295	103	100%	6.0	23.5%	9.7%	13.7%	3.4%	4.57	4.22	+9.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	198	82	29	100%	6.0	23.5%	9.7%	13.7%	3.4%	4.57	4.22	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		23	23	82	359	83	55	16	100%	3.6	23.0%	15.3%	7.7%	4.4%	4.74	5.53	+8.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	56	200	879	202	135	39	100%	3.6	23.0%	15.3%	7.7%	4.4%	4.74	5.53	+1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 41 IPFIP 3.39 → 4.69 (+1.30)K% 34.5% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.46%	—	×0.770	26.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.99%	—	×1.150	14.94%
HR / BF /BF	2.82%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.53%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.39 → 4.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAWichita Wind Surge · 32 IPFIP 5.43 → 6.49 (+1.06)K% 23.4% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.38%	—	×0.810	18.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×1.100	15.71%
HR / BF /BF	4.55%	÷1.000	×1.200	5.45%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.43 → 6.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 8 IPFIP 0.54 → 1.80 (+1.26)K% 46.4% → 34.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	46.43%	—	×0.740	34.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.71%	—	×1.180	12.64%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 0.54 → 1.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Riley Quick (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	4.39	23.8%	14.3%	327	-0.28	—	—	—
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	88
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.48	22.0%	5.1%	180	-0.38	3.92	311	87
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	85
Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP	3.79	23.5%	8.9%	2.8%	.273	4.79	17.1%	7.3%	83	+1.00	3.79	182	85
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	85
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	85
David Festa R 2023 · 3.68 FIP	23	SP	3.68	24.5%	11.2%	2.2%	.341	3.71	27.2%	19.1%	209	+0.03	3.67	405	84
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	84
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	83
Ty Madden R 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	24.0%	11.2%	3.7%	.304	4.75	21.2%	12.0%	217	+0.23	4.39	458	83
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	82
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.48	21.4%	12.8%	178	-0.58	2.48	298	82
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	81
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	81
Logan Workman R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP	4.33	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.94	20.1%	12.8%	362	-0.39	3.82	579	81
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.53	19.8%	6.6%	278	+1.79	3.74	362	81
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	81
Nick Nastrini R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	22.8%	11.5%	2.5%	.288	5.95	19.1%	3.2%	168	+1.93	4.02	412	80
Cody Morris R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	22	SP	3.73	21.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.362	2.85	31.1%	20.9%	96	-0.88	2.23	256	80
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.9	98	23.5%	9.9%	1.29	4.56
Vince Velasquez ('15-'23, 2 WAR*)	3.8	85	21.9%*	9.2%*	1.37*	4.99*
Zack Godley ('21)	2.8	95	22.1%	9.6%	1.16	4.92
Tylor Megill ('25)	2.0	82	24.3%	9.1%	1.27	4.46
Paul Moskau ('77-'83, 3 WAR*)	3.2	91	19.8%*	8.9%*	1.50*	4.84*
Wayne Twitchell ('70-'79, 4 WAR*)	5.3	133	24.2%*	11.3%*	1.16*	4.56*
Jackie Brown ('70-'77, 1 WAR*)	4.5	128	19.7%*	8.9%*	1.21*	4.93*