Riley Quick — OGILVIE

Riley Quick P Cedar Rapids Kernels

Age 22 RHP 6'6" / 255 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.2 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.53

FIP4.53

K%23.5%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%12.7%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$32M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL4545

CMD3045

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$8M	+$7M
2031	Arb-1	$5M	+1.3	$7M	+$4M
2032	Arb-2	$8M	+1.1	$6M	+$1M
2033	Arb-3	$9M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$15M		$33M	+$22M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	23	23	82	359	110	48	12	100%	3.6	23.9%	15.1%	8.8%	4.1%	4.74	5.23	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	23	23	82	359	110	48	12	100%	3.6	23.9%	15.1%	8.8%	4.1%	4.74	5.23	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	MIN	3	3	8	28	13	3	0	100%	2.7	46.4%	10.7%	35.7%	0.0%	0.00	0.54	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	MIN	11	11	41	177	61	23	5	100%	3.8	34.5%	13.0%	21.5%	2.8%	4.14	3.39	—
2026	22	AA RAW	MIN	9	9	32	154	36	22	7	100%	3.6	23.4%	14.3%	9.1%	4.5%	6.68	5.43	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	MIN	25	25	138	582	140	58	17	100%	5.5	24.1%	10.0%	14.1%	3.0%	4.41	4.35	+0.9
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIN	30	30	167	706	173	67	21	100%	5.6	24.5%	9.5%	15.0%	3.0%	4.30	4.24	+1.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIN	30	30	175	739	183	68	22	100%	5.8	24.7%	9.2%	15.5%	2.9%	4.23	4.18	+1.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIN	29	29	175	739	184	68	22	100%	6.0	24.9%	9.2%	15.7%	2.9%	4.19	4.16	+1.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIN	29	29	172	728	181	67	22	100%	5.9	24.9%	9.2%	15.6%	3.0%	4.19	4.19	+1.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	MIN	28	28	167	706	175	66	22	100%	6.0	24.7%	9.4%	15.4%	3.1%	4.24	4.28	+1.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	MIN	27	27	160	674	165	65	22	100%	5.9	24.5%	9.6%	14.9%	3.2%	4.34	4.41	+0.9
2034	30	MLB MLE	MIN	25	25	150	634	153	63	22	100%	6.0	24.1%	9.9%	14.2%	3.4%	4.49	4.59	+0.5
2035	31	MLB MLE	MIN	23	23	140	591	140	61	22	100%	6.1	23.7%	10.2%	13.5%	3.7%	4.67	4.79	+0.2
2036	32	MLB MLE	MIN	22	22	130	547	127	58	21	100%	5.9	23.3%	10.7%	12.6%	3.9%	4.88	5.02	-0.2
2037	33	MLB MLE	MIN	20	20	119	502	114	56	21	100%	5.9	22.8%	11.1%	11.7%	4.2%	5.11	5.27	-0.5
2027	23	MLB CTX	MIN	12	12	68	287	69	29	9	100%	5.7	24.1%	10.0%	14.1%	3.0%	4.42	4.36	+0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIN	21	21	117	494	121	47	15	100%	5.6	24.5%	9.5%	15.0%	3.0%	4.31	4.25	+0.9
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIN	24	24	142	600	148	55	18	100%	5.9	24.7%	9.2%	15.5%	3.0%	4.24	4.19	+1.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIN	26	26	153	646	161	59	19	100%	5.9	24.9%	9.2%	15.7%	3.0%	4.20	4.17	+1.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIN	26	26	156	659	164	61	20	100%	6.0	24.9%	9.2%	15.6%	3.0%	4.20	4.20	+1.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	MIN	26	26	154	650	161	61	20	100%	5.9	24.7%	9.4%	15.4%	3.1%	4.25	4.29	+1.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	MIN	25	25	149	629	154	60	21	100%	6.0	24.5%	9.6%	14.9%	3.3%	4.35	4.42	+0.9
2034	30	MLB CTX	MIN	24	24	141	595	144	59	21	100%	5.9	24.1%	9.9%	14.2%	3.5%	4.50	4.60	+0.5
2035	31	MLB CTX	MIN	22	22	133	562	133	58	21	100%	6.0	23.7%	10.2%	13.5%	3.7%	4.68	4.80	+0.2
2036	32	MLB CTX	MIN	20	20	123	519	121	55	20	100%	6.2	23.3%	10.7%	12.6%	3.9%	4.89	5.03	-0.2
2037	33	MLB CTX	MIN	19	19	113	477	109	53	20	100%	5.9	22.8%	11.1%	11.7%	4.2%	5.12	5.28	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		245	245	1448	6113	1483	596	203	100%	5.9	24.3%	9.8%	14.5%	3.3%	4.45	4.11	+13.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	205	82	28	100%	5.9	24.3%	9.8%	14.5%	3.3%	4.45	4.11	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		23	23	82	359	86	54	15	100%	3.6	23.9%	15.1%	8.8%	4.1%	4.74	5.23	+8.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	56	200	879	210	133	36	100%	3.6	23.9%	15.1%	8.8%	4.1%	4.74	5.23	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Riley Quick (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.53	23.5%	10.8%	3.0%	—	4.25	24.4%	14.9%	480	-0.28	—	—	—
Ricky DeVito R 2021 · 4.04 FIP	22	SP	4.04	22.8%	8.8%	3.2%	.309	4.65	21.5%	2.4%	151	+0.61	4.04	215	86
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	84
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	84
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2021 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	10.8%	3.3%	.311	3.87	20.6%	11.1%	236	-0.46	3.17	515	84
Jimmy Joyce R 2021 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP	3.78	25.0%	9.0%	3.0%	.341	4.03	20.4%	9.7%	242	+0.25	3.39	259	83
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	82
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	81
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	81
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	81
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	81
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.32	19.2%	6.3%	244	+0.98	4.34	382	80
River Ryan R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	26.1%	12.2%	2.3%	.321	3.89	20.2%	9.1%	134	+0.20	2.11	220	79
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	79
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	79
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.56	18.5%	9.7%	359	+0.93	3.63	429	79
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	78
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	78
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	77
Cooper Bradford R 2019 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP	4.99	18.0%	8.5%	4.2%	.393	4.99	17.6%	4.8%	106	+0.00	4.97	136	76
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.51	21.6%	4.7%	180	-0.35	4.00	311	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.6	143	24.3%	9.7%	1.26	4.43
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68