Riley Quick
P
Cedar Rapids Kernels
Age 22
RHP
6'6" / 255 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.5 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION49 act + 51 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 99
ERA4.33
FIP4.33
K%26.7%
BB%11.5%
K-BB%15.2%
ROS IP51
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 14 | 14 | 49 | 205 | 74 | 26 | 5 | 100% | 3.5 | 27.6% | 14.6% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 3.47 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | MIN | 9 | 9 | 51 | 214 | 57 | 25 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 26.7% | 11.5% | 15.2% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 26.7% | 11.5% | 15.2% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.34 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 100 | 419 | 131 | 51 | 11 | — | — | 31.3% | 12.1% | 19.2% | 2.7% | 3.90 | 4.31 | +1.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 26.7% | 11.5% | 15.2% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 3.96 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | MIN | 16 | 16 | 87 | 366 | 99 | 39 | 11 | 100% | 5.4 | 27.1% | 10.6% | 16.5% | 3.0% | 4.23 | 4.16 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 20 | 20 | 115 | 485 | 132 | 48 | 14 | 100% | 5.7 | 27.3% | 10.0% | 17.3% | 2.9% | 4.12 | 4.05 | +1.8 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 23 | 23 | 134 | 567 | 155 | 55 | 17 | 100% | 5.8 | 27.4% | 9.6% | 17.8% | 2.9% | 4.04 | 3.99 | +2.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 24 | 24 | 146 | 617 | 170 | 59 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 27.5% | 9.5% | 18.0% | 2.9% | 4.00 | 3.97 | +2.4 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 24 | 24 | 144 | 608 | 167 | 58 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.5% | 9.6% | 17.9% | 3.0% | 4.00 | 4.01 | +2.3 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 23 | 23 | 140 | 590 | 161 | 58 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 27.4% | 9.8% | 17.6% | 3.1% | 4.06 | 4.09 | +2.1 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 22 | 22 | 133 | 563 | 153 | 56 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 27.1% | 10.0% | 17.1% | 3.2% | 4.16 | 4.22 | +1.8 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 21 | 21 | 125 | 529 | 142 | 54 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.8% | 10.3% | 16.5% | 3.4% | 4.30 | 4.40 | +1.5 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 19 | 19 | 117 | 494 | 130 | 52 | 18 | 100% | 6.2 | 26.4% | 10.6% | 15.7% | 3.6% | 4.48 | 4.60 | +1.1 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 18 | 18 | 108 | 456 | 118 | 50 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.9% | 11.0% | 14.9% | 3.9% | 4.69 | 4.83 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | MIN | 8 | 8 | 43 | 182 | 49 | 19 | 5 | 100% | 5.4 | 27.1% | 10.6% | 16.5% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 4.17 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 14 | 14 | 80 | 338 | 92 | 34 | 10 | 100% | 5.7 | 27.3% | 10.0% | 17.3% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 4.06 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 19 | 19 | 109 | 460 | 126 | 44 | 14 | 100% | 5.7 | 27.4% | 9.6% | 17.8% | 2.9% | 4.05 | 4.00 | +1.8 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 21 | 21 | 128 | 540 | 149 | 52 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 27.5% | 9.5% | 18.0% | 2.9% | 4.01 | 3.98 | +2.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 22 | 22 | 130 | 549 | 151 | 53 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 27.5% | 9.6% | 17.9% | 3.0% | 4.01 | 4.02 | +2.1 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 22 | 22 | 129 | 545 | 149 | 53 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 27.4% | 9.8% | 17.6% | 3.1% | 4.07 | 4.10 | +2.0 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 21 | 21 | 124 | 524 | 142 | 52 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 27.1% | 10.0% | 17.1% | 3.2% | 4.17 | 4.23 | +1.7 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 20 | 20 | 117 | 494 | 132 | 51 | 17 | 100% | 5.8 | 26.8% | 10.3% | 16.5% | 3.4% | 4.31 | 4.41 | +1.4 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 18 | 18 | 111 | 469 | 124 | 50 | 17 | 100% | 6.2 | 26.4% | 10.6% | 15.7% | 3.7% | 4.49 | 4.61 | +1.0 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 17 | 17 | 103 | 435 | 113 | 48 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.9% | 11.0% | 14.9% | 3.9% | 4.70 | 4.84 | +0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 181 | 181 | 1074 | 4535 | 1227 | 455 | 146 | 100% | 5.9 | 27.0% | 10.0% | 17.0% | 3.2% | 4.21 | 3.86 | +19.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 228 | 85 | 27 | 100% | 5.9 | 27.0% | 10.0% | 17.0% | 3.2% | 4.21 | 3.86 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 14 | 14 | 49 | 205 | 57 | 30 | 6 | 100% | 3.5 | 27.6% | 14.6% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 3.47 | 4.30 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 57 | 200 | 831 | 229 | 122 | 25 | 100% | 3.5 | 27.6% | 14.6% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 3.47 | 4.30 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Riley Quick (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.33 | 26.7% | 11.5% | 3.0% | — | 4.05 | 27.3% | 17.3% | 336 | -0.28 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Garcia R 2028 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 84 |
| Carmen Mlodzinski R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.04 | 23.1% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .311 | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.1% | 236 | -0.19 | 3.12 | 482 | 83 |
| Brandon Young R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.07 | 24.5% | 12.3% | 2.7% | .297 | 3.46 | 22.4% | 14.1% | 150 | -0.61 | 3.11 | 420 | 83 |
| River Ryan R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.58 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.1% | .321 | 3.86 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 134 | +0.28 | 2.13 | 218 | 83 |
| Tanner Burns R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.07 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .292 | 5.42 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 244 | +1.35 | 4.07 | 378 | 82 |
| Jaxon Wiggins R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.61 | 22.5% | 12.8% | 1.4% | .286 | 3.29 | 24.5% | 11.4% | 79 | -0.32 | 3.12 | 132 | 81 |
| Nate Dohm R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.86 | 21.1% | 11.5% | 3.8% | .309 | 4.59 | 17.7% | 2.6% | 40 | -0.27 | 4.59 | 115 | 80 |
| Mike Vasil R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.71 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .264 | 4.60 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 359 | +0.89 | 3.71 | 429 | 80 |
| George Klassen R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.57 | 27.0% | 13.6% | 1.9% | .299 | 4.12 | 20.3% | 8.0% | 175 | +0.55 | 3.57 | 268 | 80 |
| Sean Mooney R 2027 · 3.45 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.45 | 30.2% | 15.3% | 1.8% | .250 | 4.82 | 24.7% | 11.2% | 60 | +1.37 | 3.45 | 102 | 79 |
| Nolan Perry R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.24 | 29.0% | 9.7% | 2.5% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 136 | 79 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .329 | 3.55 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.68 | 2.49 | 298 | 79 |
| Jimmy Joyce R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.67 | 25.0% | 9.0% | 2.8% | .341 | 3.99 | 20.4% | 9.7% | 242 | +0.32 | 3.44 | 259 | 79 |
| Ricky DeVito R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.36 | 22.8% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .309 | 4.57 | 21.5% | 2.4% | 151 | +0.21 | 4.05 | 215 | 78 |
| Chad Patrick R 2027 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.92 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .315 | 4.36 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.44 | 3.76 | 537 | 77 |
| Jimmy Kingsbury R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.00 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 2.7% | .175 | 4.15 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 168 | +0.15 | 3.59 | 307 | 77 |
| Ryan Jensen R 2027 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.00 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 4.2% | .236 | 4.59 | 22.3% | 3.9% | 180 | -0.41 | 4.20 | 311 | 77 |
| Bryan Woo R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.69 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .348 | 3.50 | 25.2% | 19.9% | 440 | -0.19 | 2.93 | 596 | 77 |
| CJ Van Eyk R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.01 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .302 | 4.47 | 15.2% | 5.3% | 127 | -0.54 | 3.95 | 411 | 77 |
| Spencer Strider R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.64 | 30.7% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .298 | 2.16 | 37.4% | 29.6% | 318 | -1.48 | 1.65 | 589 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 11 | 118 | 27.1% | 10.1% | 1.23 | 4.20 |
| Rich Hill ('23) | 9 | 104 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 1.12 | 3.65 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Vince Velasquez ('23) | 9 | 85 | 24.9% | 9.3% | 1.48 | 4.88 |
| James Paxton ('24) | 8 | 106 | 25.8% | 7.7% | 1.12 | 3.89 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Mike Clevinger ('23) | 7 | 113 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 1.07 | 3.45 |