Caden Hunter

P Frederick Keys

Age 23 LHP A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.4 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP40OGV rank#220ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX3 levels	23	21	103	2.01	2.29	36.4%	11.3%	—	K 28.2% · BB 12.9% · FIP 3.33
2027PROJ	23	MLBBAL	1	1	1	4.21	4.21	27.7%	12.5%	0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	24	MLBBAL	7	7	38	4.18	4.11	27.7%	11.2%	0.6
2029PROJ51% MLB	25	MLBBAL	9	9	54	4.09	4.01	27.6%	10.4%	0.9

Next 3 projected WAR 1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$3M2034Arb-2$3M+1

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 13, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 74%

CompsKen Waldichuk (age 23) · Andrew Abbott (age 23) · Anthony Veneziano (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 97105vR 113

ERA4.21

FIP4.21

K%27.7%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%15.2%

Proj IP123

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 123 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$49M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$8M	+$7M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$7M	+$6M
2033	Arb-1	$3M	+1.0	$5M	+$4M
2034	Arb-2	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.3M
2035	Arb-3	$3M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$9M		$30M	+$24M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	21	103	415	151	47	6	91%	4.5	28.2%	12.9%	15.3%	1.8%	2.01	3.33	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	21	103	415	151	47	6	91%	4.5	28.2%	12.9%	15.3%	1.8%	2.01	3.33	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	21	103	415	151	47	6	91%	4.5	36.4%	11.3%	25.1%	1.4%	2.01	2.29	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	BAL	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	27.7%	12.5%	15.2%	2.7%	4.21	4.21	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	BAL	22	22	123	519	144	58	14	100%	5.6	27.7%	11.2%	16.5%	2.7%	4.11	4.04	+2.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	BAL	18	18	105	442	122	46	12	100%	5.8	27.6%	10.4%	17.3%	2.7%	4.02	3.94	+1.8
2030	26	MLB MLE	BAL	17	17	103	435	120	44	12	100%	6.1	27.6%	10.2%	17.4%	2.7%	3.98	3.94	+1.8
2031	27	MLB MLE	BAL	17	17	100	424	116	43	12	100%	5.9	27.4%	10.2%	17.2%	2.8%	3.98	3.98	+1.7
2032	28	MLB MLE	BAL	16	16	96	406	111	42	12	100%	6.0	27.3%	10.4%	16.9%	2.9%	4.03	4.07	+1.5
2033	29	MLB MLE	BAL	15	15	90	379	103	40	11	100%	6.0	27.0%	10.6%	16.5%	3.0%	4.13	4.20	+1.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	BAL	14	14	82	345	92	38	11	100%	5.8	26.7%	10.9%	15.8%	3.2%	4.28	4.37	+1.0
2035	31	MLB MLE	BAL	12	12	73	307	81	35	11	100%	6.1	26.3%	11.2%	15.1%	3.5%	4.46	4.58	+0.7
2036	32	MLB MLE	BAL	11	11	64	269	69	31	10	100%	5.8	25.8%	11.6%	14.2%	3.7%	4.67	4.80	+0.4
2037	33	MLB MLE	BAL	9	9	55	231	59	28	9	100%	6.1	25.3%	12.1%	13.3%	4.0%	4.90	5.05	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	BAL	7	7	38	160	44	18	5	100%	5.4	27.7%	11.2%	16.5%	2.8%	4.18	4.11	+0.6
2029	25	MLB CTX	BAL	9	9	54	228	63	24	6	100%	6.0	27.6%	10.4%	17.3%	2.8%	4.09	4.01	+0.9
2030	26	MLB CTX	BAL	11	11	67	283	78	29	8	100%	6.1	27.6%	10.2%	17.4%	2.8%	4.05	4.01	+1.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	BAL	12	12	74	312	86	32	9	100%	6.2	27.4%	10.2%	17.2%	2.9%	4.05	4.05	+1.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	BAL	13	13	76	321	88	33	10	100%	5.8	27.3%	10.4%	16.9%	3.0%	4.10	4.14	+1.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	BAL	12	12	74	312	84	33	10	100%	6.2	27.0%	10.6%	16.5%	3.2%	4.20	4.27	+1.0
2034	30	MLB CTX	BAL	12	12	70	296	79	32	10	100%	5.8	26.7%	10.9%	15.8%	3.4%	4.36	4.45	+0.8
2035	31	MLB CTX	BAL	11	11	64	270	71	30	10	100%	5.8	26.3%	11.2%	15.1%	3.6%	4.55	4.67	+0.6
2036	32	MLB CTX	BAL	10	10	57	241	62	28	9	100%	5.7	25.8%	11.6%	14.2%	3.9%	4.76	4.89	+0.4
2037	33	MLB CTX	BAL	8	8	50	211	53	26	9	100%	6.2	25.3%	12.1%	13.3%	4.2%	5.00	5.15	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		105	105	623	2631	708	284	85	100%	5.9	26.9%	10.8%	16.1%	3.2%	4.31	3.98	+10.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	227	91	27	100%	6.0	26.9%	10.8%	16.1%	3.2%	4.31	3.98	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		23	21	103	415	117	54	7	91%	4.5	28.2%	12.9%	15.3%	1.8%	2.01	3.33	+12.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	41	200	806	227	104	14	91%	4.5	28.2%	12.9%	15.3%	1.8%	2.01	3.33	+2.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Frederick Keys · 45 IPFIP 2.12 → 3.16 (+1.05)K% 35.2% → 27.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.23%	—	×0.770	27.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.80%	—	×1.150	12.41%
HR / BF /BF	1.14%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.42%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.12 → 3.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAChesapeake Baysox · 35 IPFIP 2.78 → 3.68 (+0.90)K% 33.3% → 27.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.810	27.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.88%	—	×1.100	11.97%
HR / BF /BF	2.04%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.45%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.78 → 3.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 23 IPFIP 1.68 → 3.11 (+1.43)K% 43.5% → 32.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	43.48%	—	×0.740	32.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.04%	—	×1.180	15.39%
HR / BF /BF	1.09%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.41%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.68 → 3.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Caden Hunter (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	3.98	27.6%	17.0%	331	-0.23	—	—	—
Ken Waldichuk L 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	28.7%	12.5%	3.3%	.279	4.29	24.1%	14.1%	271	+0.23	3.51	432	91
Andrew Abbott L 2022 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	26.0%	10.9%	2.0%	.336	3.91	23.7%	15.8%	468	+0.55	3.36	752	87
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.94	18.6%	8.6%	358	+0.67	4.18	539	84
Nick Zwack L 2022 · 3.16 FIP	23	SP	3.16	23.9%	9.3%	1.6%	.299	5.73	18.2%	8.7%	143	+2.57	3.16	292	83
Tony Cingrani L 2013 · 3.65 FIP	24	SP-	3.65	28.6%	10.0%	3.1%	.238	4.26	21.8%	9.1%	184	+0.61	1.68	354	82
Connelly Early L 2024 · 3.33 FIP	22	SP	3.33	24.1%	9.8%	1.9%	.292	3.28	26.0%	17.0%	214	-0.05	2.52	318	82
Cade Povich L 2023 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP	4.32	25.7%	12.1%	3.4%	.298	4.32	22.0%	13.7%	386	-0.00	3.80	626	81
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	81
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	80
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	80
Parker Messick L 2024 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	23.8%	9.1%	2.1%	.302	3.09	25.2%	18.3%	325	-0.27	2.97	580	80
Shane McClanahan L 2019 · 3.36 FIP	22	SP	3.36	23.3%	10.4%	1.7%	.315	3.07	29.0%	22.6%	290	-0.29	2.95	643	79
Drew Parrish L 2021 · 3.47 FIP	23	SP-	3.47	24.1%	7.9%	2.6%	.261	5.90	16.7%	7.0%	354	+2.43	3.47	522	79
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	212	77
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.26	30.7%	17.2%	124	-1.88	1.94	208	76
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	76
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.85	18.0%	10.5%	367	-0.33	3.77	480	75
Brandon Williamson L 2021 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP	3.62	29.7%	9.0%	3.4%	.340	4.59	18.6%	7.3%	288	+0.97	3.62	454	75
Matt Wilkinson L 2024 · 3.23 FIP	21	SP	3.23	28.5%	9.2%	2.5%	.252	4.47	20.8%	11.3%	219	+1.24	3.23	337	75
Blake Snell L 2016 · 3.12 FIP	23	SP	3.12	26.4%	12.0%	1.3%	.354	3.34	28.9%	19.7%	461	+0.22	1.59	1,456	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.1	92	27.1%	11.0%	1.15	4.20
Juan Berenguer ('78-'92, 9 WAR*)	6.0	100	26.4%*	11.6%*	1.13*	4.14*
Dick Selma ('65-'74, 6 WAR*)	4.2	93	24.5%*	11.1%*	1.12*	4.28*
Brad Peacock ('21)	2.8	93	24.7%	10.1%	1.27	4.11
Ken Howell ('84-'90, 4 WAR*)	3.1	102	27.3%*	10.5%*	1.00*	4.67*
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02
Brandon Morrow ('18)	4.3	78	24.0%	10.1%	0.92	3.96