Matthew Liberatore
P
St. Louis Cardinals
Age 26
LHP
6'4" / 215 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 1.8 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION94 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104114vR 123
ERA4.33
FIP4.26
K%20.8%
BB%7.8%
K-BB%12.9%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 156 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5094.5
Whiff%
p3222.7%
K%
p4521.4%
xwOBA vs
p180.350
CH+1.6 (15%)
SI (9%)
CU (17%)
CT (4%)
FB (41%)
SL-2.8 (23%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | Princeton Rays | 9 | 9 | 33 | 127 | 37 | 13 | 0 | 100% | 3.6 | 19.8% | 12.8% | 7.0% | 0.0% | 1.38 | 3.05 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | Princeton Rays | 9 | 9 | 33 | 127 | 37 | 13 | 0 | 100% | 3.6 | 29.1% | 10.2% | 18.9% | 0.0% | 1.38 | 2.03 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 16 | 15 | 78 | 332 | 76 | 31 | 2 | 94% | 4.9 | 16.9% | 11.0% | 5.9% | 0.5% | 3.10 | 3.34 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 16 | 15 | 78 | 332 | 76 | 31 | 2 | 94% | 4.9 | 22.9% | 9.3% | 13.6% | 0.6% | 3.10 | 2.68 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 22 | 18 | 125 | 520 | 123 | 33 | 19 | 82% | 5.7 | 20.8% | 6.7% | 14.2% | 4.5% | 4.04 | 4.65 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 22 | 18 | 125 | 520 | 123 | 33 | 19 | 82% | 5.7 | 23.7% | 6.3% | 17.3% | 3.7% | 4.04 | 3.90 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 29 | 150 | 656 | 144 | 59 | 21 | 94% | 4.8 | 19.8% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 3.2% | 5.35 | 4.37 | +1.8 |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 29 | 150 | 656 | 144 | 59 | 21 | 94% | 4.8 | 22.0% | 9.0% | 13.0% | 3.2% | 5.35 | 4.18 | +2.1 |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 24 | 126 | 558 | 130 | 62 | 13 | 69% | 3.6 | 21.5% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 2.6% | 4.70 | 4.18 | +1.8 |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 24 | 126 | 558 | 130 | 62 | 13 | 69% | 3.6 | 23.3% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 2.3% | 4.70 | 3.85 | +2.3 |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 60 | 6 | 86 | 358 | 76 | 25 | 11 | 10% | 1.4 | 21.2% | 7.0% | 14.2% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 3.89 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 60 | 6 | 86 | 358 | 76 | 25 | 11 | 10% | 1.4 | 21.2% | 7.0% | 14.2% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 3.87 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 29 | 29 | 152 | 648 | 122 | 40 | 19 | 100% | 5.2 | 18.8% | 6.2% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 3.91 | +2.6 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 29 | 29 | 152 | 648 | 122 | 40 | 19 | 100% | 5.2 | 18.8% | 6.2% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 3.91 | +2.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 19 | 19 | 94 | 412 | 88 | 36 | 17 | 100% | 4.9 | 21.4% | 8.7% | 12.6% | 4.1% | 5.00 | 4.67 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | STL | 10 | 10 | 62 | 264 | 55 | 21 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.8% | 7.8% | 12.9% | 3.5% | 4.33 | 4.26 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | STL | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 54 | 21 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.8% | 7.8% | 12.9% | 3.5% | 4.33 | 4.26 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | STL | — | — | 156 | 676 | 143 | 57 | 26 | — | — | 21.1% | 8.4% | 12.7% | 3.9% | 4.73 | 4.51 | +1.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | STL | — | — | 156 | 659 | 143 | 57 | 26 | — | — | 21.7% | 8.6% | 13.1% | 4.0% | 4.73 | 4.54 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | STL | 25 | 25 | 150 | 635 | 131 | 50 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.6% | 7.9% | 12.7% | 3.6% | 4.71 | 4.70 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | STL | 25 | 25 | 150 | 635 | 130 | 51 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.5% | 8.1% | 12.4% | 3.7% | 4.76 | 4.79 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | STL | 24 | 24 | 144 | 606 | 120 | 50 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.9% | 8.3% | 11.6% | 3.8% | 4.87 | 4.95 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | STL | 22 | 22 | 135 | 570 | 109 | 49 | 23 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.2% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 4.0% | 5.04 | 5.15 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | STL | 21 | 21 | 126 | 532 | 98 | 48 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 4.2% | 5.25 | 5.38 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | STL | 25 | 25 | 150 | 633 | 130 | 50 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.6% | 7.9% | 12.7% | 3.6% | 4.71 | 4.70 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | STL | 25 | 25 | 150 | 633 | 130 | 51 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.5% | 8.1% | 12.4% | 3.7% | 4.75 | 4.78 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | STL | 24 | 24 | 144 | 608 | 121 | 50 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.9% | 8.3% | 11.6% | 3.8% | 4.86 | 4.94 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | STL | 22 | 22 | 135 | 570 | 109 | 49 | 23 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.2% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 4.0% | 5.03 | 5.14 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | STL | 21 | 21 | 126 | 532 | 98 | 48 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 4.2% | 5.24 | 5.37 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 269 | 202 | 1195 | 5096 | 1003 | 412 | 180 | 75% | 4.4 | 19.7% | 8.1% | 11.6% | 3.5% | 4.81 | 4.41 | +13.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 34 | 200 | 853 | 168 | 69 | 30 | 75% | 4.4 | 19.7% | 8.1% | 11.6% | 3.5% | 4.81 | 4.41 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 221 | 149 | 843 | 3611 | 726 | 313 | 108 | 67% | 3.8 | 20.1% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.14 | +12.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 35 | 200 | 857 | 172 | 74 | 26 | 67% | 3.8 | 20.1% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.14 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matthew Liberatore (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 19.6% | 6.8% | 3.0% | — | 4.81 | 20.3% | 12.2% | 444 | +0.47 | — | — | — |
| Ken Waldichuk L 2025 · 4.90 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.90 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .303 | 5.70 | 22.3% | 4.9% | 51 | +0.80 | 3.42 | 432 | 61 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.98 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 4.2% | .246 | 6.63 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.65 | 4.98 | 179 | 60 |
| Dylan Dodd L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.9% | 7.0% | 4.4% | .338 | 4.05 | 26.4% | 21.5% | 100 | -0.83 | 3.41 | 452 | 59 |
| John Means L 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.10 | 19.0% | 6.0% | 3.4% | .253 | 4.51 | 23.0% | 18.7% | 190 | +0.41 | 3.51 | 1,027 | 59 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2027 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.0% | .289 | 5.37 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | +0.10 | 5.27 | 128 | 59 |
| Roenis Elías L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.29 | 17.9% | 8.0% | 3.1% | .299 | 3.96 | 17.7% | 8.3% | 251 | -0.33 | 3.19 | 564 | 59 |
| Chris Jones L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.69 | 15.0% | 4.9% | 2.2% | .305 | 4.03 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 118 | +0.34 | 3.69 | 268 | 58 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2024 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.93 | 116 | 58 |
| Felix Doubront L 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.87 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.2% | .304 | 4.45 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.58 | 3.39 | 291 | 58 |
| Danny Duffy L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.27 | 17.3% | 9.0% | 2.7% | .292 | 3.94 | 22.7% | 15.3% | 481 | -0.33 | 3.29 | 915 | 57 |
| Dillon Peters L 2026 · 5.31 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.31 | 17.7% | 7.3% | 5.1% | .323 | 4.69 | 20.5% | 11.3% | 119 | -0.62 | 2.56 | 598 | 57 |
| Matt Tomshaw L 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.95 | 13.8% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .318 | 3.49 | 16.0% | 10.7% | 401 | -0.46 | 2.95 | 681 | 57 |
| Adam Morgan L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.18 | 19.9% | 5.2% | 3.8% | .315 | 3.70 | 24.3% | 16.6% | 151 | -0.48 | 3.49 | 522 | 57 |
| Chad Bell L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.05 | 15.7% | 7.4% | 2.4% | .326 | 4.13 | 19.0% | 10.2% | 252 | +0.08 | 3.47 | 393 | 57 |
| James Gillheeney L 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 129 | 57 |
| Eric Wooten L 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.16 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 116 | 57 |
| Justin Marks L 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .323 | 3.78 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.78 | 3.75 | 324 | 56 |
| Chipper Smith L 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.83 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 109 | 56 |
| Brandon Schaeffer L 2023 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.08 | 16.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 134 | 55 |
| Drew Parrish L 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.97 | 20.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | .290 | 5.16 | 15.2% | 5.1% | 70 | +0.19 | 3.53 | 522 | 55 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 142 | 19.7% | 8.1% | 1.43 | 4.83 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| Mike Foltynewicz ('21) | 6 | 134 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 1.46 | 4.45 |
| Marco Estrada ('19) | 5 | 142 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 4.33 |
| Aníbal Sánchez ('22) | 7 | 120 | 20.4% | 7.8% | 1.56 | 4.80 |
| Matt Harvey ('21) | 6 | 120 | 19.2% | 6.8% | 1.33 | 4.98 |
| CC Sabathia ('19) CYAS×6HOF | 5 | 151 | 20.2% | 7.8% | 1.39 | 4.14 |