Matthew Liberatore

Matthew Liberatore P St. Louis Cardinals

Age 26 LHP 6'4" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.7 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION143 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100108vR 117

ERA4.16

FIP4.11

K%22.3%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%14.6%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 156 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—65

STUF6060

CTRL6060

CMD6060

K†4555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4794.3

Whiff%

p4224.1%

p5523.2%

xwOBA vs

p240.343

CH+1.6 (13%)

SI (8%)

CU (18%)

CT (4%)

FB (38%)

SL-2.8 (27%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 2.837 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.2M	+0.0	$0.1M	-$0.1M
2027	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-3	$4M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-4	$4M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.2M		$2M	-$0.1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	Princeton Rays	9	9	33	127	37	13	0	100%	3.6	19.8%	12.8%	7.0%	0.0%	1.38	3.05	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	Princeton Rays	9	9	33	127	37	13	0	100%	3.6	29.1%	10.2%	18.9%	0.0%	1.38	2.03	—
2019	19	A MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	16	15	78	332	76	31	2	94%	4.9	16.9%	11.0%	5.9%	0.6%	3.10	3.40	—
2019	19	A RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	16	15	78	332	76	31	2	94%	4.9	22.9%	9.3%	13.6%	0.6%	3.10	2.68	—
2021	21	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	22	18	125	520	123	33	19	82%	5.7	20.8%	6.7%	14.2%	4.2%	4.04	4.51	—
2021	21	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	22	18	125	520	123	33	19	82%	5.7	23.7%	6.3%	17.3%	3.7%	4.04	3.90	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	29	150	656	144	59	21	94%	4.8	19.8%	9.3%	10.5%	3.4%	5.35	4.46	+0.8
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	29	150	656	144	59	21	94%	4.8	22.0%	9.0%	13.0%	3.2%	5.35	4.18	+1.3
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	24	126	558	130	62	13	69%	3.6	20.7%	10.4%	10.3%	2.6%	4.70	4.11	+1.2
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	24	126	558	130	62	13	69%	3.6	20.7%	10.4%	10.3%	2.6%	4.70	4.11	+1.2
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	24	126	558	130	62	13	69%	3.6	23.3%	11.1%	12.2%	2.3%	4.70	3.85	+1.6
2024	24	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	60	6	86	358	76	25	11	10%	1.4	21.2%	7.0%	14.2%	3.3%	4.40	4.01	+0.6
2024	24	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	60	6	86	358	76	25	11	10%	1.4	21.2%	7.0%	14.2%	3.3%	4.40	4.01	+0.6
2024	24	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	60	6	86	358	76	25	11	10%	1.4	21.2%	7.0%	14.2%	3.1%	4.40	3.87	+0.7
2025	25	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	29	29	152	648	122	40	19	100%	5.2	18.8%	6.2%	12.7%	3.2%	4.21	4.02	+1.6
2025	25	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	29	29	152	648	122	40	19	100%	5.2	18.8%	6.2%	12.7%	3.2%	4.21	4.02	+1.6
2025	25	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	29	29	152	648	122	40	19	100%	5.2	18.8%	6.2%	12.7%	2.9%	4.21	3.91	+1.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			149	82	477	2070	418	159	67	55%	3.2	20.2%	7.7%	12.5%	3.2%	4.90	4.17	+4.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	29	29	143	628	146	52	27	100%	4.9	23.2%	8.3%	15.0%	4.6%	5.53	4.72	+0.3
YTD	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	29	29	143	628	146	52	27	100%	4.9	23.2%	8.3%	15.0%	4.6%	5.53	4.72	+0.3
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	MLB RAW	STL	29	29	143	628	146	52	27	100%	4.9	23.2%	8.3%	15.0%	4.3%	5.53	4.55	+0.6
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	STL	29	29	143	628	146	52	27	100%	4.9	23.2%	8.3%	15.0%	4.3%	5.53	4.55	+0.6
ROS	26	MLB MLE	STL	2	2	13	55	12	4	2	100%	6.6	22.3%	7.7%	14.6%	3.5%	4.16	4.11	+0.1
ROS	26	MLB CTX	STL	2	2	13	55	12	4	2	100%	6.5	22.3%	7.7%	14.6%	3.2%	4.02	3.97	+0.1
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	156	683	158	56	29	—	—	23.2%	8.2%	14.9%	4.2%	5.41	4.67	+0.4
FULL	26	MLB A+C	STL	—	—	156	661	158	56	29	—	—	24.0%	8.5%	15.5%	4.4%	5.40	4.55	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	STL	25	25	150	635	140	50	24	100%	6.0	22.0%	7.8%	14.2%	3.8%	4.72	4.71	+0.3
2028	28	MLB MLE	STL	25	25	150	635	139	50	25	100%	6.0	21.9%	8.0%	14.0%	3.9%	4.77	4.80	+0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	STL	24	24	144	606	129	50	25	100%	6.0	21.3%	8.2%	13.1%	4.1%	4.88	4.96	-0.1
2030	30	MLB MLE	STL	22	22	135	570	117	48	24	100%	6.1	20.6%	8.5%	12.1%	4.3%	5.05	5.17	-0.4
2027	27	MLB CTX	STL	25	25	150	633	140	49	23	100%	6.0	22.0%	7.8%	14.2%	3.6%	4.57	4.56	+0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	STL	25	25	150	633	139	50	23	100%	6.0	21.9%	8.0%	14.0%	3.7%	4.62	4.65	+0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	STL	24	24	144	608	130	50	23	100%	6.0	21.3%	8.2%	13.1%	3.8%	4.72	4.80	-0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	STL	22	22	135	570	117	48	23	100%	6.1	20.6%	8.5%	12.1%	4.0%	4.89	5.01	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		248	181	1070	4572	956	361	160	73%	4.3	20.9%	7.9%	13.0%	3.5%	4.78	4.26	+8.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		46	34	200	855	179	67	30	73%	4.3	20.9%	7.9%	13.0%	3.5%	4.78	4.26	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		231	159	893	3827	779	324	122	69%	3.9	20.4%	8.5%	11.9%	3.2%	4.48	4.20	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	36	200	857	175	73	27	69%	3.9	20.4%	8.5%	11.9%	3.2%	4.48	4.20	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matthew Liberatore (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.41	19.5%	6.7%	3.1%	—	4.82	21.8%	13.8%	444	+0.41	—	—	—
Daniel Norris L 2019 · 4.51 FIP	26	SP	4.51	20.5%	6.2%	4.3%	.306	4.32	24.8%	14.2%	143	-0.19	2.81	821	66
Adam Morgan L 2016 · 4.10 FIP	26	SP	4.10	19.9%	5.2%	3.7%	.315	3.66	24.3%	16.6%	151	-0.44	3.45	522	64
Ken Waldichuk L 2023 · 5.01 FIP	25	SP-	5.01	20.7%	11.0%	4.1%	.303	5.84	21.0%	6.1%	51	+0.83	3.51	432	62
Eric Lauer L 2021 · 3.83 FIP	26	SP	3.83	23.9%	8.2%	3.1%	.247	4.71	23.0%	13.7%	324	+0.88	3.75	1,097	62
Dillon Peters L 2019 · 5.27 FIP	26	SP-	5.27	17.7%	7.3%	5.0%	.323	4.86	20.5%	11.3%	119	-0.41	2.56	598	61
Reid Detmers L 2023 · 3.63 FIP	24	SP	3.63	26.1%	9.0%	2.9%	.306	3.73	27.8%	20.1%	397	+0.10	2.77	749	60
Matthew Boyd L 2017 · 4.24 FIP	26	SP	4.24	19.5%	7.9%	3.2%	.302	4.41	25.8%	18.9%	416	+0.17	2.22	1,440	60
David Peterson L 2022 · 3.23 FIP	26	SP-	3.23	27.2%	10.0%	2.1%	.331	3.63	21.9%	12.3%	438	+0.40	2.81	1,061	59
Sean Manaea L 2018 · 4.24 FIP	26	SP	4.24	16.5%	4.7%	3.5%	.243	3.58	25.9%	20.7%	291	-0.66	3.28	1,494	59
John Means L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	26	SP	4.04	19.0%	6.0%	3.3%	.253	4.42	23.0%	18.7%	190	+0.38	3.56	1,027	59
Jackson Wolf L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	24	SP	4.16	21.7%	7.0%	3.7%	.279	4.35	18.2%	9.2%	348	+0.19	4.07	614	59
Roenis Elías L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	26	SP	4.32	17.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.299	3.98	17.7%	8.3%	251	-0.34	3.15	564	58
Anthony Veneziano L 2023 · 4.25 FIP	25	SP	4.25	18.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.292	4.45	17.1%	7.9%	185	+0.20	3.57	534	58
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	57
Tyler Alexander L 2019 · 5.56 FIP	27	SP-	5.56	21.7%	9.8%	5.6%	.289	5.27	15.7%	5.0%	26	-0.29	5.27	128	57
Chris Jones L 2015 · 3.80 FIP	26	SP-	3.80	15.0%	4.9%	2.4%	.305	4.07	13.4%	5.6%	118	+0.27	3.80	268	57
Felix Doubront L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	18.0%	8.4%	2.3%	.304	4.12	23.7%	14.7%	42	+0.20	3.44	291	57
Shane McClanahan L 2023 · 3.83 FIP	26	SP	3.83	25.8%	8.7%	3.3%	.274	3.44	21.8%	13.8%	118	-0.39	2.95	643	56
Tyler Lyons L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	27	SP-	3.78	22.2%	4.4%	3.6%	.313	3.64	26.0%	18.5%	158	-0.14	2.65	376	56
Matt Moore L 2015 · 4.17 FIP	26	SP	4.17	21.9%	7.8%	3.5%	.323	4.44	19.7%	11.3%	475	+0.27	2.80	861	56

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	146	21.1%	7.8%	1.49	4.77
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38