Matthew Liberatore
P
St. Louis Cardinals
+1.4
WAR
Age 26
LHP
6'4" / 215 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 1.4 · 2026
ERA4.42
FIP4.37
xFIP5.01
SIERA5.16
K%19.9%
BB%7.0%
K-BB%12.8%
IP144
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.4peak
2026
K†4545
FB Velo
p4894.4
Whiff%
p1018.1%
K%
p1013.7%
xwOBA vs
p240.342
CH+1.6 (17%)
SI (9%)
CU (12%)
CT (3%)
FB (43%)
SL-2.8 (25%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | Princeton Rays | 9 | 9 | 33 | 127 | 37 | 13 | 0 | 19.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% | 1.38 | 3.05 | +0.7 |
| 2019 | 19 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 16 | 15 | 78 | 332 | 76 | 31 | 2 | 16.9% | 11.0% | 0.6% | 3.10 | 3.40 | +1.5 |
| 2021 | 21 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 22 | 18 | 125 | 520 | 123 | 33 | 19 | 20.8% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 4.04 | 4.48 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 22 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 31 | 29 | 150 | 656 | 144 | 59 | 21 | 19.8% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 5.35 | 4.40 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 23 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 35 | 24 | 126 | 558 | 130 | 62 | 13 | 21.5% | 11.5% | 2.5% | 4.70 | 4.13 | +1.7 |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 60 | 6 | 86 | 358 | 76 | 25 | 11 | 21.2% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 3.88 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 29 | 29 | 152 | 648 | 122 | 40 | 19 | 18.8% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 4.21 | 4.02 | +2.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 4 | 4 | 21 | 94 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 12.8% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 4.29 | 6.02 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | STL | 21 | 21 | 113 | 477 | 85 | 35 | 16 | 17.7% | 7.3% | 3.4% | 4.50 | 4.42 | +1.1 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | STL | — | — | 134 | 571 | 97 | 43 | 21 | 16.9% | 7.5% | 3.8% | 4.47 | 4.67 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | STL | 23 | 23 | 128 | 539 | 95 | 40 | 19 | 17.6% | 7.4% | 3.5% | 4.86 | 4.83 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | STL | 22 | 22 | 119 | 502 | 88 | 37 | 18 | 17.6% | 7.4% | 3.5% | 4.86 | 4.86 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | STL | 20 | 20 | 108 | 457 | 78 | 34 | 16 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 4.90 | 4.93 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | STL | 18 | 18 | 98 | 412 | 68 | 31 | 15 | 16.6% | 7.6% | 3.6% | 4.98 | 5.03 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | STL | 16 | 16 | 88 | 370 | 59 | 29 | 14 | 16.0% | 7.7% | 3.7% | 5.07 | 5.13 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | STL | 14 | 14 | 78 | 330 | 57 | 23 | 12 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 5.01 | 4.98 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | STL | 13 | 13 | 70 | 293 | 49 | 21 | 11 | 16.7% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 5.07 | 5.10 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 41 | 19 | 10 | 16.0% | 7.4% | 4.0% | 5.17 | 5.24 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | STL | 54 | — | 54 | 227 | 35 | 17 | 9 | 15.2% | 7.7% | 4.1% | 5.30 | 5.39 | -0.3 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | STL | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 29 | 16 | 8 | 14.5% | 7.9% | 4.2% | 5.45 | 5.56 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 206 | 134 | 770 | 3293 | 650 | 285 | 96 | 19.7% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.13 | +10.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 35 | 200 | 855 | 169 | 74 | 25 | 19.7% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.13 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matthew Liberatore (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.40 | 19.9% | 7.0% | 3.1% | — | 4.87 | 17.5% | 10.0% | 355 | +0.47 | — | — | — |
| Mike Montgomery L 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.94 | 17.3% | 8.4% | 2.3% | .289 | 3.64 | 18.7% | 10.5% | 355 | -0.30 | 3.50 | 764 | 64 |
| Mike Belfiore L 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.61 | 12.0% | 9.2% | 2.5% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.61 | 135 | 64 |
| Chad Bell L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.99 | 15.7% | 7.4% | 2.3% | .326 | 4.01 | 19.0% | 10.2% | 252 | +0.02 | 3.37 | 393 | 64 |
| Jeffry Antigua L 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.58 | 11.4% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.58 | 133 | 63 |
| Chris Jones L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.79 | 15.0% | 4.9% | 2.4% | .305 | 4.07 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 118 | +0.28 | 3.79 | 268 | 63 |
| Roenis Elías L 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.41 | 17.9% | 8.0% | 3.3% | .299 | 3.98 | 17.7% | 8.3% | 251 | -0.43 | 3.14 | 564 | 62 |
| Tanner Banks L 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.64 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 1.7% | .290 | 4.00 | 16.9% | 12.1% | 183 | +0.36 | 2.88 | 1,009 | 62 |
| Darin Gorski L 2027 · 4.96 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.96 | 15.2% | 11.4% | 3.1% | .323 | 4.49 | 15.0% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.47 | 4.49 | 206 | 62 |
| Zack Dodson L 2025 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.06 | 10.8% | 5.6% | 2.1% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 162 | 62 |
| Brandon Schaeffer L 2023 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.07 | 16.4% | 8.5% | 2.3% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 134 | 61 |
| Cam Vieaux L 2025 · 5.51 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.51 | 17.4% | 10.5% | 4.6% | .250 | 4.84 | 19.2% | 8.9% | 123 | -0.67 | 4.20 | 620 | 61 |
| Nate Smith L 2024 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 16.6% | 7.2% | 3.0% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.24 | 288 | 61 |
| Michael Roth L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.98 | 14.0% | 7.5% | 2.0% | .285 | 4.73 | 13.1% | 6.0% | 213 | +0.75 | 3.98 | 483 | 61 |
| Kelvin Marte L 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.84 | 11.7% | 7.8% | 1.3% | .273 | 4.15 | 16.3% | 7.0% | 160 | +0.31 | 3.44 | 360 | 61 |
| Chris Rusin L 2028 · 4.52 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.52 | 13.5% | 6.2% | 3.2% | .331 | 3.39 | 20.1% | 13.3% | 224 | -1.13 | 2.93 | 488 | 61 |
| Jimmy Reed L 2024 · 3.66 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.66 | 12.9% | 4.3% | 2.0% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 137 | 61 |
| Yohan Flande L 2029 · 4.79 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.79 | 12.9% | 5.5% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.27 | 15.1% | 8.4% | 172 | -1.52 | 3.17 | 335 | 61 |
| Matthew Kent L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.16 | 12.0% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .313 | 4.26 | 12.5% | 6.7% | 205 | +0.10 | 3.09 | 821 | 61 |
| Anthony Vasquez L 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.17 | 11.8% | 9.3% | 1.6% | .278 | 4.19 | 14.3% | 7.3% | 423 | +0.02 | 4.01 | 642 | 61 |
| Pete Hansen L 2025 · 3.75 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.75 | 17.1% | 7.0% | 2.2% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 378 | 60 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2
MLB Debut 2022
Service 2.837 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2029
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $2M | +1.4 | $11M | +$9M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.9M |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.4M |
| 2029 | Arb-4 | $3M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $8M | $18M | +$10M | ||