Drew Hutchison
P
Lehigh Valley IronPigs
Age 35
RHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION67 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.81
FIP4.89
xFIP4.93
SIERA5.07
K%19.6%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%8.4%
IP67
K†4545
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
FB Velo
p2192.4
Whiff%
p1220.0%
K%
p1014.7%
xwOBA vs
p110.358
SL-1.9
FB-3.2
CH-4.6
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 31 | 29 | 154 | 680 | 133 | 47 | 23 | 19.4% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 5.54 | 4.12 | +2.3 |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 34 | 27 | 162 | 681 | 160 | 57 | 22 | 21.1% | 8.7% | 3.9% | 3.83 | 4.56 | +1.6 |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 28 | 26 | 159 | 677 | 124 | 55 | 14 | 16.1% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 3.56 | 4.60 | +1.5 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 25 | 12 | 85 | 373 | 71 | 39 | 10 | 17.7% | 10.6% | 2.6% | 4.46 | 4.40 | +0.7 |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 25 | 23 | 131 | 584 | 133 | 53 | 20 | 20.0% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 5.28 | 4.47 | +1.4 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 28 | 21 | 110 | 470 | 99 | 52 | 9 | 18.8% | 11.5% | 1.9% | 3.45 | 4.03 | +1.8 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 34 | 21 | 119 | 517 | 87 | 44 | 17 | 16.4% | 8.5% | 3.6% | 4.46 | 4.76 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 32 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 24 | 24 | 110 | 500 | 93 | 75 | 13 | 16.4% | 15.8% | 2.7% | 5.63 | 5.20 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | PHI | 11 | 11 | 62 | 264 | 52 | 29 | 8 | 19.6% | 11.1% | 3.0% | 4.81 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | PHI | 55 | — | 55 | 233 | 43 | 27 | 8 | 18.6% | 11.7% | 3.4% | 5.08 | 5.26 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 229 | 183 | 1031 | 4482 | 823 | 435 | 142 | 18.4% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +10.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 36 | 200 | 870 | 160 | 84 | 28 | 18.4% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Drew Hutchison (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.89 | 19.6% | 11.1% | 3.0% | — | 5.26 | 18.6% | 6.8% | 55 | +0.37 | — | — | — |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 82 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 81 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.58 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 251 | 80 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 80 |
| Mark Lowe R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 77 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 77 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.76 | 14.9% | 9.1% | 3.2% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 244 | 76 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.00 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.4% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 147 | 75 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.91 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .269 | 5.68 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 104 | +0.77 | 4.91 | 172 | 75 |
| Spencer Patton R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.44 | 19.2% | 11.0% | 2.9% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.74 | 239 | 75 |
| Zack Segovia R 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.36 | 17.6% | 13.6% | 1.9% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 144 | 75 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.15 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 4.5% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.00 | 320 | 74 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2024 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 74 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 5.83 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.83 | 17.9% | 14.2% | 4.5% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 170 | 74 |
| Jesse Chavez R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.03 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 3.5% | .303 | 3.28 | 25.5% | 17.9% | 140 | -0.75 | 2.03 | 804 | 73 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.86 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .284 | 2.47 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.39 | 1.42 | 240 | 72 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 72 |
| Brandon McCarthy R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.69 | 19.2% | 6.2% | 4.4% | .332 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 248 | 71 |
| Jason Motte R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.16 | 16.3% | 11.4% | 3.6% | .193 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 113 | 70 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2024 · 5.46 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.46 | 14.3% | 10.4% | 4.1% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 148 | 70 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.