Drew Hutchison
P
Lehigh Valley IronPigs
+0.3
WAR
Age 35
RHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.71
FIP4.71
xFIP4.93
SIERA5.07
K%21.4%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%10.3%
IP96
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†4550
FB Velo
p2192.4
Whiff%
p1220.0%
K%
p1014.7%
xwOBA vs
p110.358
SL-1.9
FB-3.2
CH-4.6
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 31 | 29 | 154 | 680 | 133 | 47 | 23 | 19.4% | 6.6% | 3.1% | 5.54 | 3.99 | +2.3 |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 34 | 27 | 162 | 681 | 160 | 57 | 22 | 21.1% | 8.7% | 3.8% | 3.83 | 4.51 | +1.5 |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 28 | 26 | 159 | 677 | 124 | 55 | 14 | 16.1% | 8.5% | 2.6% | 3.56 | 4.22 | +2.0 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 25 | 12 | 85 | 373 | 71 | 39 | 10 | 17.7% | 10.6% | 2.5% | 4.46 | 4.32 | +0.8 |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 25 | 23 | 131 | 584 | 133 | 53 | 20 | 20.0% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 5.28 | 4.55 | +1.1 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 28 | 21 | 110 | 470 | 99 | 52 | 9 | 18.8% | 11.5% | 2.0% | 3.45 | 4.06 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 34 | 21 | 119 | 517 | 87 | 44 | 17 | 16.4% | 8.5% | 3.5% | 4.46 | 4.71 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 32 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 24 | 24 | 110 | 500 | 93 | 75 | 13 | 16.4% | 15.8% | 2.8% | 5.63 | 5.25 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | PIT | 16 | 16 | 89 | 377 | 74 | 42 | 11 | 19.6% | 11.1% | 3.0% | 4.82 | 4.89 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | PIT | 14 | 14 | 78 | 328 | 68 | 35 | 10 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 4.80 | 4.79 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | PIT | 12 | 12 | 67 | 283 | 57 | 31 | 9 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 4.90 | 4.96 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 229 | 183 | 1031 | 4482 | 823 | 435 | 135 | 18.4% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.51 | 4.44 | +10.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 36 | 200 | 870 | 160 | 84 | 26 | 18.4% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.51 | 4.44 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Drew Hutchison (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.89 | 19.6% | 11.1% | 3.0% | — | 4.87 | 20.4% | 9.7% | 145 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Matt Garza R 2024 · 4.57 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.57 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.03 | 365 | 77 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.37 | 16.2% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 240 | 76 |
| Walter Silva R 2029 · 4.13 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.13 | 14.8% | 7.4% | 2.5% | .311 | 3.92 | 10.4% | 3.7% | 209 | -0.21 | 3.67 | 428 | 76 |
| Mike Pelfrey R 2024 · 5.70 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.70 | 14.5% | 10.6% | 4.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 404 | 76 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.35 | 13.8% | 7.0% | 2.8% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 171 | 74 |
| Jesse Estrada R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.36 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 257 | 74 |
| Edinson Volquez R 2025 · 4.07 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.07 | 20.4% | 12.6% | 2.0% | .271 | 6.15 | 13.3% | -2.7% | 16 | +2.08 | 3.69 | 498 | 72 |
| Chris Young R 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.6% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .209 | 6.35 | 21.1% | 11.4% | 119 | +1.73 | 4.62 | 242 | 71 |
| Michael Nix R 2024 · 4.52 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.52 | 11.9% | 11.6% | 1.8% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 234 | 70 |
| Logan Duran R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.76 | 15.3% | 8.9% | 1.5% | .299 | 3.65 | 15.5% | 6.6% | 29 | -0.11 | 3.41 | 187 | 68 |
| Jake Peavy R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.39 | 19.6% | 6.7% | 3.8% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 262 | 68 |
| Leo Medrano R 2024 · 4.34 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.34 | 11.0% | 7.3% | 2.3% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 222 | 68 |
| Scott Feldman R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.56 | 19.7% | 7.0% | 4.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 297 | 67 |
| Jonathan Castellanos R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.90 | 8.4% | 9.2% | 2.5% | .314 | 5.22 | 11.0% | 2.0% | 67 | +0.32 | 3.41 | 394 | 66 |
| Tiago Da Silva R 2025 · 3.90 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.90 | 15.0% | 7.2% | 2.1% | .365 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.16 | 287 | 66 |
| Jason Hammel R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.39 | 15.8% | 6.0% | 3.4% | .342 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 645 | 65 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.34 | 12.6% | 6.7% | 2.6% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 264 | 64 |
| David Buchanan R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.35 | 15.1% | 7.6% | 2.9% | .337 | 5.75 | 12.5% | 3.1% | 29 | +1.40 | 4.25 | 443 | 64 |
| Pablo Ortega R 2029 · 4.51 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.51 | 8.6% | 7.3% | 2.2% | .291 | 4.23 | 11.5% | 6.0% | 236 | -0.28 | 4.03 | 375 | 64 |
| Shaun Marcum R 2024 · 4.03 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.03 | 17.8% | 6.0% | 3.0% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.03 | 123 | 64 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.