Kevin Defrank — OGILVIE

Kevin Defrank P DSL Miami

Age 17 RHP 6'5" / 202 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.43

FIP4.43

K%22.0%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%12.4%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5060

CTRL3045

CMD—45

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	16	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	10	10	31	141	34	10	1	100%	3.1	16.4%	8.9%	7.5%	0.7%	3.19	3.22	—
2025	16	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	10	10	31	141	34	10	1	100%	3.1	16.4%	8.9%	7.5%	0.7%	3.19	3.22	—
2025	16	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	10	10	31	141	34	10	1	100%	3.1	24.1%	7.1%	17.0%	0.7%	3.19	2.29	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	17	MLB	MIA	1	1	5	21	5	2	1	100%	5.0	22.0%	9.6%	12.4%	2.9%	4.43	4.43	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	18	MLB MLE	MIA	14	14	79	334	77	31	10	100%	5.6	23.1%	9.3%	13.8%	2.9%	4.34	4.28	+0.6
2028	19	MLB MLE	MIA	20	20	109	461	103	45	13	100%	5.5	22.3%	9.7%	12.7%	2.8%	4.35	4.36	+0.7
2029	20	MLB MLE	MIA	26	26	145	611	142	57	17	100%	5.6	23.2%	9.3%	13.9%	2.8%	4.27	4.22	+1.2
2030	21	MLB MLE	MIA	32	32	175	739	177	67	20	100%	5.5	23.9%	9.1%	14.8%	2.7%	4.16	4.10	+1.7
2031	22	MLB MLE	MIA	33	33	180	760	190	66	20	100%	5.5	25.0%	8.7%	16.3%	2.6%	4.02	3.92	+2.1
2032	23	MLB MLE	MIA	33	33	180	760	196	64	20	100%	5.5	25.8%	8.4%	17.4%	2.6%	3.88	3.79	+2.4
2033	24	MLB MLE	MIA	32	32	180	760	200	62	20	100%	5.6	26.3%	8.1%	18.2%	2.6%	3.77	3.70	+2.6
2034	25	MLB MLE	MIA	31	31	180	760	203	61	19	100%	5.8	26.7%	8.0%	18.7%	2.6%	3.69	3.64	+2.7
2035	26	MLB MLE	MIA	30	30	180	760	205	61	19	100%	6.0	26.9%	8.0%	19.0%	2.6%	3.65	3.62	+2.8
2036	27	MLB MLE	MIA	30	30	177	749	202	60	20	100%	5.9	26.9%	8.0%	18.9%	2.6%	3.65	3.66	+2.6
2037	28	MLB MLE	MIA	29	29	172	726	195	59	20	100%	5.9	26.8%	8.2%	18.6%	2.7%	3.70	3.74	+2.4
2038	29	MLB MLE	MIA	27	27	164	694	184	58	20	100%	6.1	26.6%	8.4%	18.1%	2.9%	3.80	3.87	+2.0
2039	30	MLB MLE	MIA	26	26	154	652	171	57	20	100%	5.9	26.2%	8.7%	17.5%	3.1%	3.95	4.05	+1.6
2027	18	MLB CTX	MIA	7	7	39	165	38	15	4	100%	5.6	23.1%	9.3%	13.8%	2.7%	4.26	4.20	+0.3
2028	19	MLB CTX	MIA	15	15	80	338	75	33	9	100%	5.3	22.3%	9.7%	12.7%	2.7%	4.27	4.28	+0.5
2029	20	MLB CTX	MIA	22	22	122	515	120	48	14	100%	5.5	23.2%	9.3%	13.9%	2.6%	4.19	4.14	+1.0
2030	21	MLB CTX	MIA	29	29	157	663	158	60	17	100%	5.4	23.9%	9.1%	14.8%	2.6%	4.09	4.03	+1.5
2031	22	MLB CTX	MIA	30	30	167	705	176	61	18	100%	5.6	25.0%	8.7%	16.3%	2.5%	3.95	3.85	+1.9
2032	23	MLB CTX	MIA	31	31	171	722	186	60	18	100%	5.5	25.8%	8.4%	17.4%	2.5%	3.81	3.72	+2.3
2033	24	MLB CTX	MIA	31	31	171	722	190	59	18	100%	5.5	26.3%	8.1%	18.2%	2.4%	3.70	3.63	+2.5
2034	25	MLB CTX	MIA	29	29	171	722	193	58	18	100%	5.9	26.7%	8.0%	18.7%	2.4%	3.62	3.57	+2.6
2035	26	MLB CTX	MIA	28	28	171	722	194	58	18	100%	6.1	26.9%	8.0%	19.0%	2.4%	3.58	3.55	+2.6
2036	27	MLB CTX	MIA	28	28	168	709	191	57	18	100%	6.0	26.9%	8.0%	18.9%	2.5%	3.58	3.59	+2.5
2037	28	MLB CTX	MIA	27	27	163	688	184	56	18	100%	6.0	26.8%	8.2%	18.6%	2.6%	3.63	3.67	+2.3
2038	29	MLB CTX	MIA	26	26	156	659	175	55	18	100%	6.0	26.6%	8.4%	18.1%	2.7%	3.72	3.79	+1.9
2039	30	MLB CTX	MIA	24	24	147	621	163	54	18	100%	6.1	26.2%	8.7%	17.5%	2.9%	3.87	3.97	+1.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		345	345	1883	7949	2044	675	203	100%	5.5	25.7%	8.5%	17.2%	2.6%	3.81	3.41	+34.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	37	200	844	217	72	22	100%	5.5	25.7%	8.5%	17.2%	2.6%	3.81	3.41	+3.7
Career	—	MLE		10	10	31	141	23	12	1	100%	3.1	16.4%	8.9%	7.5%	0.7%	3.19	3.22	+25.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	65	200	910	149	81	6	100%	3.1	16.4%	8.9%	7.5%	0.7%	3.19	3.22	+2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kevin Defrank (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.43	22.0%	9.6%	2.9%	—	4.28	22.9%	13.5%	333	-0.15	—	—	—
Marco Raya R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	19	SP	4.77	21.4%	10.3%	4.0%	.250	4.44	19.5%	8.3%	254	-0.33	3.99	380	86
Shawndrick Oduber R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	18	SP	3.99	22.0%	7.2%	3.4%	.337	5.40	15.2%	3.4%	72	+1.41	3.99	104	85
Luis Arejula R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	19	SP	3.52	21.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.318	4.46	15.7%	3.5%	71	+0.94	3.52	115	84
Walin Castillo R 2022 · 3.97 FIP	17	SP	3.97	17.7%	8.2%	2.4%	.278	4.92	12.7%	1.1%	190	+0.95	3.97	295	84
Jose Montero R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	19	SP	3.72	20.8%	7.9%	2.5%	.377	4.03	15.8%	4.6%	234	+0.31	3.72	375	82
Carlos Naveda R 2017 · 3.77 FIP	18	SP	3.77	19.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.297	2.63	16.9%	11.7%	64	-1.14	2.63	120	82
Juan Bello R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	18	SP	4.02	18.3%	6.9%	2.9%	.256	3.93	18.2%	7.6%	155	-0.09	3.77	187	82
Andry Rondon R 2015 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP	3.46	19.8%	8.2%	1.8%	.283	3.98	15.6%	1.1%	49	+0.52	3.26	105	82
Bryan Perez R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	17	SP-	4.32	18.2%	9.5%	2.8%	.289	4.60	16.6%	5.2%	160	+0.28	4.14	211	81
Giussepe Velasquez R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	18	SP	4.21	17.2%	10.7%	2.2%	.329	5.64	19.1%	4.8%	53	+1.43	4.21	222	81
Jordarlin Mendoza R 2022 · 3.33 FIP	18	SP	3.33	23.3%	10.6%	1.6%	.325	5.22	19.7%	-2.2%	54	+1.89	3.33	147	81
Eric Pardinho R 2018 · 4.43 FIP	17	SP	4.43	21.4%	9.9%	3.5%	.271	3.62	16.3%	5.0%	34	-0.81	2.71	229	80
Owen Murphy R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	19	SP	4.20	22.0%	9.9%	3.1%	.325	4.03	22.8%	13.3%	186	-0.17	2.78	275	80
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	80
Javier Bartolozzi R 2023 · 3.39 FIP	18	SP	3.39	16.9%	8.1%	1.2%	.325	4.56	13.8%	5.4%	125	+1.17	3.39	164	79
Eric Silva R 2022 · 5.03 FIP	19	SP	5.03	20.1%	12.6%	3.7%	.306	4.89	17.3%	5.6%	163	-0.14	4.68	299	79
Kyle Glogoski R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP-	3.46	19.9%	8.5%	1.7%	.277	3.92	20.6%	9.1%	93	+0.46	3.32	206	79
Adrian Navas R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	19	SP	3.67	18.5%	11.9%	1.2%	.272	5.27	16.8%	7.1%	145	+1.60	3.67	204	78
Jeisson Cabrera R 2018 · 3.79 FIP	19	SP	3.79	20.0%	13.0%	1.3%	.312	4.42	21.3%	5.8%	51	+0.63	3.78	244	78
Gilberto Batista R 2023 · 3.63 FIP	18	SP-	3.63	22.8%	6.2%	3.0%	.323	5.53	15.1%	5.0%	210	+1.90	3.63	250	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.7	152	25.5%	8.6%	1.05	3.92
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67