Kevin Defrank — OGILVIE

Kevin Defrank P DSL Miami

Age 17 RHP 6'5" / 202 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.3 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 56 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 102

ERA4.47

FIP4.47

K%22.0%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%12.1%

ROS IP56

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5060

CTRL3045

CMD—45

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	16	ROK	DSL Miami	10	10	31	141	34	10	1	100%	3.1	16.4%	8.9%	7.5%	0.5%	3.19	3.13	—
2025	16	ROK	DSL Miami	10	10	31	141	34	10	1	100%	3.1	24.1%	7.1%	17.0%	0.7%	3.19	2.29	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	17	MLB	MIA	10	10	56	238	52	24	7	100%	5.6	22.0%	9.9%	12.1%	2.9%	4.47	4.47	+0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	18	MLB	MIA	14	14	79	334	77	32	10	100%	5.6	23.1%	9.6%	13.5%	2.9%	4.37	4.31	+0.6
2028	19	MLB	MIA	20	20	109	461	103	45	13	100%	5.5	22.3%	9.9%	12.5%	2.8%	4.38	4.38	+1.3
2029	20	MLB	MIA	26	26	145	611	142	58	17	100%	5.6	23.2%	9.5%	13.7%	2.8%	4.29	4.23	+2.0
2030	21	MLB	MIA	32	32	175	739	177	68	20	100%	5.5	23.9%	9.2%	14.7%	2.7%	4.18	4.11	+2.6
2031	22	MLB	MIA	33	33	180	760	190	67	20	100%	5.5	25.0%	8.8%	16.2%	2.6%	4.03	3.93	+3.1
2032	23	MLB	MIA	33	33	180	760	196	64	20	100%	5.5	25.8%	8.5%	17.3%	2.6%	3.89	3.80	+3.4
2033	24	MLB	MIA	32	32	180	760	200	63	20	100%	5.6	26.3%	8.3%	18.1%	2.6%	3.78	3.71	+3.6
2034	25	MLB	MIA	31	31	180	760	203	62	19	100%	5.8	26.7%	8.1%	18.6%	2.6%	3.70	3.65	+3.7
2035	26	MLB	MIA	30	30	180	760	205	61	19	100%	6.0	26.9%	8.1%	18.8%	2.6%	3.66	3.63	+3.7
2036	27	MLB	MIA	30	30	177	749	202	61	19	100%	5.9	26.9%	8.2%	18.8%	2.6%	3.67	3.67	+3.6
2037	28	MLB	MIA	29	29	172	726	195	60	20	100%	5.9	26.8%	8.3%	18.5%	2.7%	3.72	3.75	+3.3
2038	29	MLB	MIA	27	27	164	694	184	59	20	100%	6.1	26.6%	8.5%	18.0%	2.9%	3.82	3.88	+2.9
2039	30	MLB	MIA	26	26	154	652	171	58	20	100%	5.9	26.2%	8.8%	17.4%	3.1%	3.96	4.06	+2.4
2027	18	MLB	MIA	7	7	39	165	38	16	5	100%	5.6	23.1%	9.6%	13.5%	2.8%	4.33	4.27	+0.1
2028	19	MLB	MIA	15	15	80	338	75	33	9	100%	5.3	22.3%	9.9%	12.5%	2.7%	4.34	4.34	+0.6
2029	20	MLB	MIA	22	22	122	515	120	49	14	100%	5.5	23.2%	9.5%	13.7%	2.7%	4.25	4.19	+1.7
2030	21	MLB	MIA	29	29	157	663	158	61	17	100%	5.4	23.9%	9.2%	14.7%	2.6%	4.14	4.07	+2.4
2031	22	MLB	MIA	30	30	167	705	176	62	18	100%	5.6	25.0%	8.8%	16.2%	2.6%	3.99	3.89	+2.9
2032	23	MLB	MIA	31	31	171	722	186	61	18	100%	5.5	25.8%	8.5%	17.3%	2.5%	3.85	3.76	+3.3
2033	24	MLB	MIA	31	31	171	722	190	60	18	100%	5.5	26.3%	8.3%	18.1%	2.5%	3.74	3.67	+3.5
2034	25	MLB	MIA	29	29	171	722	193	59	18	100%	5.9	26.7%	8.1%	18.6%	2.5%	3.66	3.61	+3.6
2035	26	MLB	MIA	28	28	171	722	194	58	18	100%	6.1	26.9%	8.1%	18.8%	2.5%	3.62	3.59	+3.6
2036	27	MLB	MIA	28	28	168	709	191	58	18	100%	6.0	26.9%	8.2%	18.8%	2.5%	3.63	3.63	+3.5
2037	28	MLB	MIA	27	27	163	688	184	57	18	100%	6.0	26.8%	8.3%	18.5%	2.6%	3.68	3.71	+3.2
2038	29	MLB	MIA	26	26	156	659	175	56	18	100%	6.0	26.6%	8.5%	18.0%	2.8%	3.78	3.84	+2.9
2039	30	MLB	MIA	24	24	147	621	163	55	18	100%	6.1	26.2%	8.8%	17.4%	3.0%	3.91	4.01	+2.4
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			345	345	1883	7949	2044	685	208	100%	5.5	25.7%	8.6%	17.1%	2.6%	3.86	3.46	+42.8
/ 200 IP	—			37	37	200	844	217	73	22	100%	5.5	25.7%	8.6%	17.1%	2.6%	3.86	3.46	+4.5
Career	—			10	10	31	141	23	12	1	100%	3.1	16.4%	8.9%	7.5%	0.5%	3.19	3.13	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—			65	65	200	910	149	81	5	100%	3.1	16.4%	8.9%	7.5%	0.5%	3.19	3.13	+5.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kevin Defrank (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	22.0%	9.9%	2.9%	—	4.30	22.9%	13.3%	333	-0.17	—	—	—
Marco Raya R 2028 · 4.77 FIP	19	SP	4.77	21.4%	10.3%	4.0%	.250	4.47	20.0%	8.0%	254	-0.30	3.83	358	86
Shawndrick Oduber R 2027 · 4.21 FIP	18	SP	4.21	22.0%	7.2%	3.8%	.337	5.35	15.2%	3.4%	72	+1.14	4.21	104	84
Ramon Marquez R 2028 · 3.98 FIP	19	SP	3.98	21.1%	8.8%	2.8%	.331	3.00	30.4%	19.8%	49	-0.98	3.00	104	83
Luis Arejula R 2028 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP	3.46	21.9%	8.7%	2.0%	.318	4.42	15.7%	3.5%	71	+0.96	3.46	115	83
Walin Castillo R 2026 · 3.75 FIP	17	SP	3.75	17.7%	8.2%	2.0%	.278	4.94	12.7%	1.1%	190	+1.19	3.75	291	83
Carlos Naveda R 2027 · 3.77 FIP	18	SP	3.77	19.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.297	2.63	16.9%	11.7%	64	-1.14	2.63	120	83
Trevor Harrison R 2027 · 4.19 FIP	18	SP	4.19	21.0%	10.6%	2.8%	.331	4.72	17.7%	5.1%	161	+0.53	3.80	234	82
Jose Montero R 2028 · 3.77 FIP	19	SP	3.77	20.8%	7.9%	2.6%	.377	3.97	15.8%	4.6%	234	+0.20	3.77	342	82
Giussepe Velasquez R 2027 · 4.44 FIP	18	SP	4.44	17.2%	10.7%	2.6%	.329	5.67	19.1%	4.8%	53	+1.23	4.44	193	82
Juan Bello R 2027 · 3.83 FIP	18	SP	3.83	18.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.256	3.93	18.2%	7.6%	155	+0.10	3.83	187	81
Andry Rondon R 2028 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP	3.46	19.8%	8.2%	1.8%	.283	3.98	15.6%	1.1%	49	+0.52	3.26	105	81
Bryan Perez R 2026 · 4.15 FIP	17	SP-	4.15	18.2%	9.5%	2.5%	.289	4.59	16.6%	5.2%	160	+0.44	4.15	211	81
Sheng-En Lin R 2028 · 3.58 FIP	19	SP-	3.58	22.3%	9.6%	2.1%	.223	4.19	17.8%	3.4%	61	+0.61	3.58	108	81
Adrian Heredia R 2028 · 3.78 FIP	19	SP	3.78	21.6%	12.8%	1.6%	.300	5.09	15.7%	2.9%	81	+1.31	3.39	125	81
Eric Silva R 2028 · 4.91 FIP	19	SP	4.91	20.1%	12.6%	3.5%	.306	4.97	17.3%	5.6%	163	+0.06	4.59	281	80
Eric Pardinho R 2026 · 4.43 FIP	17	SP	4.43	21.4%	9.9%	3.5%	.271	3.58	16.3%	5.0%	34	-0.85	2.87	229	80
Owen Murphy R 2028 · 4.23 FIP	19	SP	4.23	22.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.325	4.15	24.9%	14.7%	149	-0.08	3.05	239	80
Jordany Ventura R 2028 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	80
Dylan Jordan R 2028 · 3.96 FIP	19	SP	3.96	18.7%	11.6%	1.8%	.300	3.77	25.0%	10.6%	72	-0.19	3.77	148	79
Adrian Navas R 2028 · 3.67 FIP	19	SP	3.67	18.5%	11.9%	1.2%	.272	5.34	16.8%	7.1%	145	+1.67	3.67	204	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	14	152	25.5%	8.7%	1.04	3.93
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Rich Hill ('23)	9	104	25.0%	8.0%	1.12	3.65
Kyle Gibson ('24)	10	164	19.6%	8.3%	1.14	4.46
Alex Wood ('24)	9	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Joe Musgrove ('24)	9	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73