Kevin Defrank

P DSL Miami

Age 18 RHP 6'5" / 202 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038 peak 0.4 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP45OGV rank#112ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	16	ROKDSL Miami	10	10	31	3.19	2.29	24.1%	7.1%	—	K 16.4% · BB 8.9% · FIP 3.22
2027PROJ	18	MLBMIA	—	—	0	4.37	4.37	23.2%	9.7%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	19	MLBMIA	7	7	36	4.21	4.17	23.8%	9.4%	0.5
2029PROJ73% MLB	20	MLBMIA	12	12	68	4.12	4.06	24.2%	9.0%	1.0

Next 3 projected WAR 1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

CompsShawndrick Oduber (age 18) · Marco Raya (age 19) · Luis Arejula (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.37

FIP4.37

K%23.2%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%13.5%

Proj IP56

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	16	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	10	10	31	141	34	10	1	100%	3.1	16.4%	8.9%	7.5%	0.7%	3.19	3.22	—
2025	16	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	10	10	31	141	34	10	1	100%	3.1	16.4%	8.9%	7.5%	0.7%	3.19	3.22	—
2025	16	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	10	10	31	141	34	10	1	100%	3.1	24.1%	7.1%	17.0%	0.7%	3.19	2.29	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	18	MLB	MIA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.2%	9.7%	13.5%	3.0%	4.37	4.37	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	MIA	13	13	74	310	74	29	9	100%	5.7	23.8%	9.4%	14.5%	2.9%	4.29	4.25	+1.0
2029	20	MLB MLE	MIA	17	17	93	392	95	35	11	100%	5.5	24.2%	9.0%	15.2%	2.8%	4.20	4.14	+1.4
2030	21	MLB MLE	MIA	21	21	117	492	121	43	14	100%	5.6	24.6%	8.8%	15.8%	2.8%	4.12	4.05	+1.9
2031	22	MLB MLE	MIA	23	23	127	535	136	45	15	100%	5.5	25.4%	8.3%	17.1%	2.7%	3.99	3.90	+2.3
2032	23	MLB MLE	MIA	24	24	129	546	143	44	15	100%	5.4	26.2%	8.0%	18.1%	2.7%	3.86	3.77	+2.5
2033	24	MLB MLE	MIA	23	23	128	540	144	42	14	100%	5.6	26.7%	7.8%	18.9%	2.7%	3.75	3.68	+2.6
2034	25	MLB MLE	MIA	22	22	126	531	144	41	14	100%	5.7	27.1%	7.7%	19.4%	2.6%	3.67	3.62	+2.7
2035	26	MLB MLE	MIA	21	21	126	534	146	41	14	100%	6.0	27.3%	7.6%	19.7%	2.6%	3.63	3.60	+2.7
2036	27	MLB MLE	MIA	21	21	124	523	143	40	14	100%	5.9	27.3%	7.7%	19.6%	2.7%	3.63	3.63	+2.6
2037	28	MLB MLE	MIA	20	20	118	499	136	39	14	100%	5.9	27.2%	7.9%	19.3%	2.8%	3.68	3.72	+2.4
2038	29	MLB MLE	MIA	18	18	110	466	126	38	14	100%	6.1	27.0%	8.1%	18.9%	2.9%	3.78	3.85	+2.0
2039	30	MLB MLE	MIA	17	17	100	423	113	36	13	100%	5.9	26.6%	8.4%	18.2%	3.1%	3.93	4.03	+1.6
2040	31	MLB MLE	MIA	15	15	90	379	99	33	13	100%	6.0	26.2%	8.8%	17.5%	3.4%	4.11	4.23	+1.2
2028	19	MLB CTX	MIA	7	7	36	152	36	14	4	100%	5.1	23.8%	9.4%	14.5%	2.8%	4.21	4.17	+0.5
2029	20	MLB CTX	MIA	12	12	68	287	70	26	8	100%	5.7	24.2%	9.0%	15.2%	2.7%	4.12	4.06	+1.0
2030	21	MLB CTX	MIA	18	18	98	414	102	36	11	100%	5.4	24.6%	8.8%	15.8%	2.7%	4.04	3.97	+1.6
2031	22	MLB CTX	MIA	21	21	114	481	122	40	13	100%	5.4	25.4%	8.3%	17.1%	2.6%	3.91	3.82	+2.0
2032	23	MLB CTX	MIA	22	22	120	507	133	41	13	100%	5.5	26.2%	8.0%	18.1%	2.6%	3.79	3.70	+2.3
2033	24	MLB CTX	MIA	21	21	120	507	135	40	13	100%	5.7	26.7%	7.8%	18.9%	2.5%	3.68	3.61	+2.5
2034	25	MLB CTX	MIA	21	21	120	507	137	39	13	100%	5.7	27.1%	7.7%	19.4%	2.5%	3.60	3.55	+2.6
2035	26	MLB CTX	MIA	20	20	120	507	139	39	13	100%	6.0	27.3%	7.6%	19.7%	2.5%	3.56	3.53	+2.6
2036	27	MLB CTX	MIA	20	20	118	498	136	38	13	100%	5.9	27.3%	7.7%	19.6%	2.6%	3.56	3.56	+2.5
2037	28	MLB CTX	MIA	19	19	112	473	129	37	13	100%	5.9	27.2%	7.9%	19.3%	2.7%	3.60	3.64	+2.3
2038	29	MLB CTX	MIA	18	18	105	443	120	36	12	100%	5.8	27.0%	8.1%	18.9%	2.8%	3.70	3.77	+1.9
2039	30	MLB CTX	MIA	16	16	95	401	107	34	12	100%	5.9	26.6%	8.4%	18.2%	3.0%	3.84	3.94	+1.5
2040	31	MLB CTX	MIA	14	14	85	359	94	31	12	100%	6.1	26.2%	8.8%	17.5%	3.2%	4.02	4.14	+1.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		236	236	1310	5533	1458	451	148	100%	5.6	26.4%	8.2%	18.2%	2.7%	3.77	3.38	+32.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	223	69	23	100%	5.6	26.4%	8.2%	18.2%	2.7%	3.77	3.38	+5.0
Career	—	MLE		10	10	31	141	23	12	1	100%	3.1	16.4%	8.9%	7.5%	0.7%	3.19	3.22	+27.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	65	200	910	149	81	6	100%	3.1	16.4%	8.9%	7.5%	0.7%	3.19	3.22	+3.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 ROKDSL Miami · 31 IPFIP 2.35 → 3.22 (+0.87)K% 24.1% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.11%	—	×0.680	16.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.09%	—	×1.250	8.87%
HR / BF /BF	0.71%	÷1.423	×1.400	0.70%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 185).

Result: FIP 2.35 → 3.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kevin Defrank (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.13	24.3%	15.2%	283	-0.24	—	—	—
Shawndrick Oduber R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	18	SP	3.99	22.0%	7.2%	3.4%	.337	5.40	15.2%	3.4%	72	+1.41	3.99	104	86
Marco Raya R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	19	SP	4.77	21.4%	10.3%	4.0%	.250	4.42	19.8%	8.6%	254	-0.35	3.99	383	85
Luis Arejula R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	19	SP	3.52	21.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.318	4.46	15.7%	3.5%	71	+0.94	3.52	115	83
Jose Montero R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	19	SP	3.72	20.8%	7.9%	2.5%	.377	4.03	15.8%	4.6%	234	+0.31	3.72	375	82
Trevor Harrison R 2024 · 4.03 FIP	18	SP	4.03	21.0%	10.6%	2.5%	.331	4.94	19.7%	7.0%	205	+0.91	3.79	277	81
Jordarlin Mendoza R 2022 · 3.33 FIP	18	SP	3.33	23.3%	10.6%	1.6%	.325	5.22	19.7%	-2.2%	54	+1.89	3.33	147	81
Carlos Naveda R 2017 · 3.77 FIP	18	SP	3.77	19.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.297	2.63	16.9%	11.7%	64	-1.14	2.63	120	81
Andry Rondon R 2015 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP	3.46	19.8%	8.2%	1.8%	.283	3.98	15.6%	1.1%	49	+0.52	3.26	105	80
Juan Bello R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	18	SP	4.02	18.3%	6.9%	2.9%	.256	3.93	18.2%	7.6%	155	-0.09	3.77	187	80
Jordy Vargas R 2022 · 4.35 FIP	18	SP	4.35	22.1%	10.0%	3.4%	.239	4.64	19.8%	6.3%	95	+0.29	3.02	290	79
Owen Murphy R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	19	SP	4.20	22.0%	9.9%	3.1%	.325	4.15	22.7%	13.5%	198	-0.05	2.78	287	79
Nelfy Ynfante R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	18	SP	4.22	18.1%	10.7%	2.4%	.309	4.71	16.8%	5.5%	225	+0.49	3.70	297	79
Adrian Heredia R 2024 · 3.77 FIP	19	SP	3.77	21.6%	12.8%	1.6%	.300	5.38	14.9%	1.8%	104	+1.61	3.34	149	79
Gilberto Batista R 2023 · 3.63 FIP	18	SP-	3.63	22.8%	6.2%	3.0%	.323	5.53	15.1%	5.0%	210	+1.90	3.63	250	78
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	78
Luis Valdez R 2023 · 3.39 FIP	18	SP	3.39	18.6%	6.7%	1.8%	.270	6.44	17.8%	5.1%	36	+3.05	3.39	103	78
Eric Silva R 2022 · 5.03 FIP	19	SP	5.03	20.1%	12.6%	3.7%	.306	4.89	17.3%	5.6%	163	-0.14	4.68	301	78
Kyle Glogoski R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP-	3.46	19.9%	8.5%	1.7%	.277	3.92	20.6%	9.1%	93	+0.46	3.32	206	78
Giussepe Velasquez R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	18	SP	4.21	17.2%	10.7%	2.2%	.329	5.64	19.1%	4.8%	53	+1.43	4.21	222	78
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.6	108	26.1%	8.3%	1.09	3.89
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20
Kenta Maeda ('25)	4.9	123	25.8%	7.0%	1.30	4.20
Jose DeLeon ('83-'95, 22 WAR*)	9.5	146	25.8%*	10.4%*	1.01*	4.17*
Woodie Fryman ('66-'83, 21 WAR*)	12.1	142	21.1%*	8.8%*	1.09*	4.43*
Jose Rijo ('84-'02, 33 WAR*)	9.4	145	25.9%*	8.4%*	0.93*	3.56*