Luis Valdez — OGILVIE

Luis Valdez P Columbia Fireflies

Age 21 RHP 6'0" / 170 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 16 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.26

FIP4.26

K%22.4%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%14.5%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL KC Glass	12	1	26	104	22	10	1	8%	2.2	14.4%	12.0%	2.4%	1.5%	2.77	4.25	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL KC Glass	12	1	26	104	22	10	1	8%	2.2	21.2%	9.6%	11.5%	1.0%	2.77	3.06	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Blue	12	12	42	168	46	9	2	100%	3.5	18.6%	6.7%	11.9%	1.8%	3.02	3.39	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Blue	12	12	42	168	46	9	2	100%	3.5	18.6%	6.7%	11.9%	1.8%	3.02	3.39	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Blue	12	12	42	168	46	9	2	100%	3.5	27.4%	5.4%	22.0%	1.2%	3.02	2.16	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	9	2	23	101	29	6	4	22%	2.5	19.5%	7.4%	12.1%	5.8%	5.96	5.60	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	9	2	23	101	29	6	4	22%	2.5	19.5%	7.4%	12.1%	5.8%	5.96	5.60	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	9	2	23	101	29	6	4	22%	2.5	28.7%	5.9%	22.8%	4.0%	5.96	3.63	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	0.7	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.16	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	0.7	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.16	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	0.7	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.60	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	14	0	21	95	27	14	5	0%	1.5	14.8%	21.8%	-7.0%	6.0%	5.66	7.90	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	14	0	21	95	27	14	5	0%	1.5	14.8%	21.8%	-7.0%	6.0%	5.66	7.90	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	KC	4	0	8	30	14	2	2	0%	1.9	46.7%	6.7%	40.0%	6.7%	4.70	3.66	—
2026	21	A RAW	KC	10	0	13	65	13	12	3	0%	1.3	20.0%	18.5%	1.5%	4.6%	6.23	6.28	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	KC	20	0	21	90	21	7	3	0%	1.1	23.4%	7.7%	15.7%	3.0%	4.17	4.10	+0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	KC	10	0	11	46	11	4	1	0%	1.1	23.4%	7.7%	15.7%	3.0%	4.17	4.10	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	44	10	3	1	0%	1.1	23.4%	7.7%	15.7%	3.0%	4.17	3.72	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	190	57	19	0%	1.1	23.4%	7.7%	15.7%	3.0%	4.17	3.72	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		48	15	112	472	81	53	16	31%	2.3	17.2%	11.2%	5.9%	3.5%	4.03	4.97	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		86	27	200	845	145	95	29	31%	2.3	17.2%	11.2%	5.9%	3.5%	4.03	4.97	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Valdez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.26	22.4%	7.9%	3.0%	—	4.10	23.4%	15.7%	21	-0.16	—	—	—
Austin Hutchison R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	22	SW	4.05	19.7%	6.0%	3.4%	.340	4.55	18.7%	9.2%	213	+0.50	3.51	235	87
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	86
Daniel Bies R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	22	SW	3.96	24.5%	6.8%	3.8%	.339	3.17	20.3%	11.0%	89	-0.79	3.17	115	85
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	85
David Davalillo R 2023 · 3.33 FIP	20	SW	3.33	18.6%	6.8%	1.7%	.292	3.31	20.7%	12.3%	305	-0.02	2.96	322	85
Jake Elliott R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	21	SU	3.82	19.2%	7.1%	2.6%	.353	3.81	18.1%	10.0%	202	-0.01	2.91	354	84
Addison Russ R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	22	SU	3.62	22.2%	7.9%	2.5%	.324	3.09	25.6%	17.5%	121	-0.53	3.08	194	83
Cole Stapler R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	22	SW	3.83	19.2%	6.0%	2.9%	.266	3.31	18.1%	13.2%	220	-0.52	3.26	255	83
J.T. Hintzen R 2018 · 3.22 FIP	22	SU	3.22	20.1%	7.0%	1.7%	.303	4.37	24.1%	15.1%	123	+1.15	3.22	205	82
Clayton McGinness R 2019 · 3.85 FIP	22	SW	3.85	19.4%	4.5%	3.3%	.291	4.63	18.7%	7.8%	84	+0.78	3.85	106	82
Ismael Cabrera R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	21	SU	3.56	19.0%	7.4%	2.1%	.250	5.19	17.4%	6.6%	117	+1.63	3.56	133	81
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	81
Kevin Coulter R 2019 · 3.27 FIP	22	SU	3.27	21.0%	7.4%	1.8%	.287	4.51	16.1%	7.6%	92	+1.24	3.27	128	81
Michael Gomez R 2019 · 3.32 FIP	22	SU	3.32	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.81	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.49	3.32	286	81
Jeff Bain R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	21	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.339	4.22	19.1%	10.7%	274	+0.28	3.35	475	81
Parker Curry R 2017 · 3.73 FIP	23	SU	3.73	22.5%	8.2%	2.7%	.341	4.62	18.6%	11.6%	193	+0.89	3.73	256	81
Huei-Sheng Lin R 2019 · 4.59 FIP	20	SW	4.59	17.4%	7.4%	3.7%	.360	5.64	16.1%	3.7%	88	+1.05	4.59	120	80
Sam Delaplane R 2017 · 3.18 FIP	22	SU	3.18	24.6%	7.7%	2.1%	.342	2.86	32.7%	23.4%	128	-0.32	2.57	194	80
Devon Roedahl R 2019 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.305	4.64	16.5%	9.2%	100	+0.70	3.94	122	80
Clark Beeker R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	23	SW	4.04	20.0%	7.1%	3.2%	.270	4.35	11.6%	6.4%	244	+0.31	4.04	287	79