Blake Holub
P
Nashville Sounds
Age 27
RHP
6'5" / 237 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION34 act + 60 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127118vR 108
ERA4.76
FIP4.76
K%24.9%
BB%16.8%
K-BB%8.1%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 94 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 4 | 52 | 235 | 68 | 31 | 5 | 12% | 1.6 | 21.7% | 15.3% | 6.4% | 2.0% | 6.23 | 4.31 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 4 | 52 | 235 | 68 | 31 | 5 | 12% | 1.6 | 28.9% | 13.2% | 15.7% | 2.1% | 6.23 | 3.52 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 65 | 259 | 76 | 17 | 9 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.3% | 7.3% | 16.0% | 4.4% | 3.03 | 4.48 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 65 | 259 | 76 | 17 | 9 | 0% | 1.4 | 29.3% | 6.6% | 22.8% | 3.5% | 3.03 | 3.34 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 50 | 219 | 59 | 27 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 13.1% | 9.7% | 1.2% | 4.17 | 3.50 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 50 | 219 | 59 | 27 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.9% | 12.3% | 14.6% | 0.9% | 4.17 | 2.88 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 39 | 0 | 41 | 185 | 53 | 31 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.2% | 17.6% | 7.6% | 0.5% | 3.70 | 3.47 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 39 | 0 | 41 | 185 | 53 | 31 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.6% | 16.8% | 11.9% | 0.5% | 3.70 | 3.10 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 29 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 40 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.4% | 8.0% | 16.4% | 2.3% | 2.38 | 3.31 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | MIL | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 63 | 42 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.9% | 16.8% | 8.1% | 2.3% | 4.76 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | MIL | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.9% | 16.8% | 8.1% | 2.3% | 4.76 | 4.76 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 94 | 395 | 103 | 53 | 9 | — | — | 25.9% | 13.5% | 12.5% | 2.2% | 3.90 | 4.23 | +1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 6 | 25 | 6 | 4 | 1 | — | — | 24.9% | 16.8% | 8.1% | 2.3% | 4.76 | 4.38 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 60 | 39 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 16.2% | 8.4% | 2.5% | 4.77 | 4.80 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 52 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 57 | 37 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 15.9% | 8.4% | 2.6% | 4.83 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 26 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 16.2% | 8.4% | 2.5% | 4.77 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 34 | 22 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 15.9% | 8.4% | 2.6% | 4.83 | 4.90 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 65 | 43 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.5% | 16.1% | 8.4% | 2.5% | 4.80 | 4.47 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 206 | 136 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.5% | 16.1% | 8.4% | 2.5% | 4.80 | 4.47 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 193 | 4 | 242 | 1042 | 243 | 128 | 23 | 2% | 1.3 | 23.3% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 2.2% | 3.97 | 3.89 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 159 | 3 | 200 | 860 | 201 | 105 | 19 | 2% | 1.3 | 23.3% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 2.2% | 3.97 | 3.89 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Blake Holub (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.76 | 24.9% | 16.8% | 2.3% | — | 4.85 | 24.5% | 8.4% | 113 | +0.09 | — | — | — |
| Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 24.9% | 14.5% | 2.7% | .360 | 5.09 | 15.3% | 3.1% | 58 | +0.79 | 3.42 | 173 | 86 |
| Jeff Johnson R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.59 | 23.6% | 15.6% | 0.9% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 160 | 86 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.94 | 26.4% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .274 | 4.93 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 69 | +0.99 | 3.68 | 181 | 84 |
| Theo Denlinger R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.32 | 20.2% | 16.4% | 1.6% | .266 | 4.20 | 15.3% | 9.9% | 41 | -0.12 | 3.03 | 140 | 81 |
| Nick Ernst R 2024 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.99 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 117 | 81 |
| Caleb Simpson R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.10 | 24.7% | 17.3% | 1.6% | .189 | 4.23 | 22.4% | 9.7% | 54 | +0.13 | 3.28 | 197 | 80 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2024 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 80 |
| Jack Ralston R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.91 | 23.3% | 18.1% | 2.7% | .338 | 3.54 | 28.3% | 18.1% | 51 | -1.37 | 3.50 | 299 | 80 |
| Kyle Grana R 2024 · 3.67 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.67 | 21.7% | 13.9% | 1.2% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 109 | 80 |
| Javy Guerra R 2029 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 80 |
| Armando Rivero R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.39 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .256 | 2.81 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.58 | 2.81 | 125 | 80 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 79 |
| Cole Uvila R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 20.4% | 13.2% | 1.9% | .360 | 3.16 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 44 | -0.92 | 3.16 | 155 | 79 |
| Chris Perry R 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.19 | 21.3% | 19.3% | 0.8% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 113 | 79 |
| Grant Sides R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.89 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .247 | 3.24 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.65 | 3.24 | 159 | 78 |
| Dario Beltre R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.21 | 21.4% | 17.0% | 1.4% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.71 | 110 | 78 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 78 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.67 | 24.1% | 15.3% | 3.0% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 172 | 78 |
| Cole McDonald R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.38 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 4.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 153 | 78 |
| Michael Hobbs R 2025 · 4.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.70 | 21.2% | 19.2% | 1.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 184 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 57 | 24.6% | 16.3% | 0.95 | 4.79 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |