Blake Holub

P Nashville Sounds

Age 28 RHP 6'5" / 237 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	45	50	4.17	2.88	26.9%	12.3%	—	K 22.5% · BB 11.6% · FIP 3.27
2025	26	AAAMIL	39	41	3.70	3.10	28.6%	16.8%	—	K 24.6% · BB 15.1% · FIP 3.22
2026	27	AAAMIL	50	56	2.10	2.97	28.1%	8.5%	—	K 24.2% · BB 7.7% · FIP 3.32
2027PROJ	28	MLBMIL	7	7	4.22	4.22	24.7%	11.6%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	29	MLBMIL	20	21	4.31	4.36	24.4%	11.5%	0.0
2029PROJ55% MLB	30	MLBMIL	25	26	4.45	4.54	23.9%	11.7%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control25Command45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsMatt Ramsey (age 28) · Cody Satterwhite (age 28) · Joe Nelson (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA4.22

FIP4.22

K%24.7%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%13.2%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL2525

CMD4545

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	4	52	235	68	31	5	12%	1.6	21.7%	15.3%	6.4%	2.4%	6.23	4.55	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	4	52	235	68	31	5	12%	1.6	28.9%	13.2%	15.7%	2.1%	6.23	3.52	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	65	259	76	17	9	0%	1.4	23.3%	7.3%	16.0%	4.3%	3.03	4.41	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	65	259	76	17	9	0%	1.4	29.3%	6.6%	22.8%	3.5%	3.03	3.34	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	50	219	59	27	2	0%	1.1	22.5%	11.6%	11.0%	1.1%	4.17	3.27	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	50	219	59	27	2	0%	1.1	22.5%	11.6%	11.0%	1.1%	4.17	3.27	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	50	219	59	27	2	0%	1.1	26.9%	12.3%	14.6%	0.9%	4.17	2.88	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	39	0	41	185	53	31	1	0%	1.1	24.6%	15.1%	9.6%	0.5%	3.70	3.22	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	39	0	41	185	53	31	1	0%	1.1	24.6%	15.1%	9.6%	0.5%	3.70	3.22	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	Nashville Sounds	39	0	41	185	53	31	1	0%	1.1	28.6%	16.8%	11.9%	0.5%	3.70	3.10	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	50	0	56	235	66	20	5	0%	1.1	24.2%	7.7%	16.5%	2.3%	2.10	3.32	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	50	0	56	235	66	20	5	0%	1.1	24.2%	7.7%	16.5%	2.3%	2.10	3.32	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	Nashville Sounds	50	0	56	235	66	20	5	0%	1.1	28.1%	8.5%	19.6%	2.1%	2.10	2.97	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	MIL	7	0	7	30	7	3	1	0%	1.0	24.7%	11.6%	13.2%	2.5%	4.22	4.22	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIL	53	0	56	236	58	27	6	0%	1.1	24.4%	11.5%	12.8%	2.7%	4.31	4.36	+0.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	MIL	45	0	48	201	48	23	6	0%	1.1	23.9%	11.7%	12.3%	2.9%	4.45	4.54	+0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIL	20	0	21	89	22	10	2	0%	1.1	24.4%	11.5%	12.8%	2.7%	4.31	4.36	+0.0
2029	30	MLB CTX	MIL	25	0	26	110	26	13	3	0%	1.0	23.9%	11.7%	12.3%	2.9%	4.45	4.54	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		45	0	47	197	48	23	6	0%	1.0	24.1%	11.6%	12.5%	2.8%	4.39	4.08	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	205	98	26	0%	1.1	24.1%	11.6%	12.5%	2.8%	4.39	4.08	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		214	4	264	1133	263	126	26	2%	1.2	23.2%	11.1%	12.1%	2.3%	3.78	3.80	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		162	3	200	858	199	96	19	2%	1.2	23.2%	11.1%	12.1%	2.3%	3.78	3.80	+0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANashville Sounds · 56 IPFIP 2.97 → 3.32 (+0.34)K% 28.1% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.09%	—	×0.860	24.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.51%	—	×0.900	7.66%
HR / BF /BF	2.13%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.34%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.97 → 3.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANashville Sounds · 41 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.22 (+0.12)K% 28.6% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.65%	—	×0.860	24.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.76%	—	×0.900	15.08%
HR / BF /BF	0.54%	÷1.111	×1.100	0.53%

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANashville Sounds · 23 IPFIP 4.29 → 4.55 (+0.27)K% 26.3% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.32%	—	×0.860	22.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.30%	—	×0.900	17.37%
HR / BF /BF	1.75%	÷0.909	×1.100	2.12%

Result: FIP 4.29 → 4.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABiloxi Shuckers · 26 IPFIP 1.37 → 1.87 (+0.50)K% 27.6% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.62%	—	×0.810	22.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.76%	—	×1.100	5.24%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.198	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 140).

Result: FIP 1.37 → 1.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAErie SeaWolves · 40 IPFIP 3.86 → 4.67 (+0.82)K% 27.2% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.16%	—	×0.810	22.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.02%	—	×1.100	8.83%
HR / BF /BF	3.70%	÷1.055	×1.200	4.21%

Result: FIP 3.86 → 4.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 25 IPFIP 2.53 → 3.96 (+1.43)K% 33.0% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.99%	—	×0.770	25.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.12%	—	×1.150	4.74%
HR / BF /BF	3.09%	÷0.882	×1.250	4.39%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 76).

Result: FIP 2.53 → 3.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 46 IPFIP 3.59 → 4.55 (+0.96)K% 29.3% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.33%	—	×0.740	21.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.98%	—	×1.180	15.32%
HR / BF /BF	2.40%	÷1.279	×1.300	2.44%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 156).

Result: FIP 3.59 → 4.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 6 IPFIP 2.79 → 3.57 (+0.79)K% 25.9% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.93%	—	×0.770	19.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.81%	—	×1.150	17.04%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.847	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.79 → 3.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Blake Holub (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.22	24.7%	11.6%	2.5%	—	4.44	24.2%	12.6%	103	+0.22	—	—	—
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	85
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	85
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	85
Ryan Tepera R 2016 · 3.11 FIP	28	SU	3.11	22.6%	8.9%	1.4%	.266	3.81	24.3%	15.9%	164	+0.70	2.35	445	84
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	84
Tyler Yates R 2006 · 4.17 FIP	28	SU	4.17	21.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.254	3.70	20.7%	11.1%	151	-0.47	3.23	248	83
Dalier Hinojosa R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	29	SU	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.30	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.89	3.41	104	83
Aquilino López R 2003 · 3.42 FIP	28	SU	3.42	20.3%	9.2%	1.6%	.243	4.81	21.2%	11.7%	38	+1.39	3.10	207	83
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	82
Dayan Díaz R 2017 · 3.45 FIP	28	SU	3.45	25.1%	8.7%	2.5%	.358	3.96	29.4%	19.3%	16	+0.51	3.08	205	82
Zach Franklin R 2024 · 3.24 FIP	25	SU	3.24	26.4%	10.9%	1.8%	.301	4.15	27.5%	18.3%	117	+0.91	3.24	158	82
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	82
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	82
Andrew Robinson R 2016 · 3.19 FIP	28	SU	3.19	22.2%	7.9%	1.8%	.247	4.32	23.4%	14.6%	39	+1.13	3.19	160	81
Blake Treinen R 2016 · 3.32 FIP	28	SU	3.32	24.0%	9.5%	1.9%	.271	3.04	26.0%	17.7%	215	-0.28	1.53	601	81
Matt Pushard R 2024 · 3.87 FIP	26	SU	3.87	24.1%	8.9%	3.0%	.242	3.29	22.2%	14.0%	115	-0.58	2.84	220	80
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	80
Michael Mariot R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	22.6%	9.0%	2.1%	.327	4.79	20.9%	11.8%	74	+1.28	2.40	701	80
Taylor Cole R 2018 · 3.70 FIP	28	SU	3.70	25.4%	10.4%	2.6%	.291	3.49	22.0%	13.9%	72	-0.21	3.49	433	80
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	24.4%	11.6%	1.04	4.31
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Brandon Workman ('21)	1.6	55	24.3%	11.1%	1.04	4.02
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Bill Kelso ('64-'68, 1 WAR*)	1.0	67	23.1%*	11.6%*	1.09*	4.19*