Blake Holub — OGILVIE

Blake Holub P Nashville Sounds

Age 27 RHP 6'5" / 237 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION52 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.52

FIP4.52

K%23.8%

BB%14.2%

K-BB%9.6%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL2525

CMD4545

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	4	52	235	68	31	5	12%	1.6	21.7%	15.3%	6.4%	2.4%	6.23	4.55	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	4	52	235	68	31	5	12%	1.6	28.9%	13.2%	15.7%	2.1%	6.23	3.52	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	65	259	76	17	9	0%	1.4	23.3%	7.3%	16.0%	4.3%	3.03	4.41	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	65	259	76	17	9	0%	1.4	23.3%	7.3%	16.0%	4.3%	3.03	4.41	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	65	259	76	17	9	0%	1.4	29.3%	6.6%	22.8%	3.5%	3.03	3.34	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	50	219	59	27	2	0%	1.1	22.1%	11.6%	10.5%	1.1%	4.17	3.30	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	50	219	59	27	2	0%	1.1	22.1%	11.6%	10.5%	1.1%	4.17	3.30	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	50	219	59	27	2	0%	1.1	26.9%	12.3%	14.6%	0.9%	4.17	2.88	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	39	0	41	185	53	31	1	0%	1.1	23.8%	15.1%	8.7%	0.5%	3.70	3.30	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	39	0	41	185	53	31	1	0%	1.1	23.8%	15.1%	8.7%	0.5%	3.70	3.30	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	Nashville Sounds	39	0	41	185	53	31	1	0%	1.1	28.6%	16.8%	11.9%	0.5%	3.70	3.10	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	47	0	52	220	63	20	4	0%	1.1	23.8%	8.2%	15.6%	2.0%	2.08	3.23	—
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	47	0	52	220	63	20	4	0%	1.1	23.8%	8.2%	15.6%	2.0%	2.08	3.23	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	MIL	47	0	52	220	63	20	4	0%	1.1	28.6%	9.1%	19.5%	1.8%	2.08	2.83	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	MIL	5	0	5	21	5	3	0	0%	1.0	23.8%	14.2%	9.6%	2.3%	4.52	4.52	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	MIL	—	—	57	241	68	23	4	—	—	28.2%	9.5%	18.7%	1.9%	2.29	3.34	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	MIL	55	0	58	244	58	34	6	0%	1.0	23.7%	13.9%	9.8%	2.5%	4.55	4.59	-0.0
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIL	52	0	55	233	54	32	6	0%	1.1	23.4%	13.8%	9.7%	2.6%	4.63	4.70	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	MIL	24	0	25	106	25	15	3	0%	1.0	23.7%	13.9%	9.8%	2.5%	4.55	4.59	-0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIL	31	0	33	139	33	19	4	0%	1.1	23.4%	13.8%	9.7%	2.6%	4.63	4.70	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		55	0	58	243	57	34	6	0%	1.0	23.5%	13.8%	9.7%	2.6%	4.59	4.27	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	198	118	21	0%	1.1	23.5%	13.8%	9.7%	2.6%	4.59	4.27	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		211	4	260	1118	256	126	25	2%	1.2	22.9%	11.3%	11.6%	2.2%	3.80	3.80	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		162	3	200	859	197	97	19	2%	1.2	22.9%	11.3%	11.6%	2.2%	3.80	3.80	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Blake Holub (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.52	23.8%	14.2%	2.3%	—	4.64	23.5%	9.7%	113	+0.12	—	—	—
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	88
Jeff Johnson R 2017 · 3.69 FIP	27	SU	3.69	23.6%	15.6%	1.1%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	160	87
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	26.4%	14.3%	2.3%	.274	4.86	21.0%	9.6%	69	+0.93	3.84	181	86
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	85
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	84
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	84
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	84
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	84
Mason Vinyard R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	24	SU	3.73	22.7%	13.6%	1.5%	.270	4.67	19.3%	5.9%	147	+0.94	3.60	207	84
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	84
Cole Uvila R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	27	SU	4.06	20.4%	13.2%	1.8%	.360	3.16	20.2%	6.3%	44	-0.90	3.16	155	83
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	83
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	83
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	83
Al Alburquerque R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	29	SU	3.54	21.4%	11.1%	1.5%	.330	3.23	21.3%	12.5%	114	-0.31	2.84	228	83
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	83
Kyle Grana R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	25	SU	3.65	21.7%	13.9%	1.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	109	83
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	83
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	83
Justin Evans R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	25	SU	3.63	23.6%	14.3%	1.3%	.323	4.80	16.4%	-7.9%	14	+1.17	3.63	105	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	23.6%	14.0%	0.95	4.57
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22