Sam Ryan

P Wichita Wind Surge

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 228 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	24	A+TOR	29	0	49	2.76	3.32	17.7%	9.4%	—	K 13.7% · BB 10.8% · FIP 3.85
2025	26	MIX2 levels	44	2	71	4.20	3.09	23.6%	10.2%	—	K 18.7% · BB 11.5% · FIP 3.80
2026	27	AAMIN	25	0	38	7.34	4.78	17.6%	11.5%	—	K 14.2% · BB 12.7% · FIP 5.31
2027PROJ	28	MLBMIN	1	0	1	5.42	5.42	15.3%	13.2%	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBMIN	12	0	13	5.39	5.44	15.9%	13.0%	-0.1
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBMIN	16	0	17	5.45	5.54	16.1%	13.0%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control40Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsKevin Gryboski (age 28) · Beck Wheeler (age 28) · Spencer Bivens (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.42

FIP5.42

K%15.3%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%2.1%

Proj IP59

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	2	26	120	24	16	3	15%	2.0	16.4%	14.7%	1.7%	1.5%	6.15	4.38	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	2	26	120	24	16	3	15%	2.0	20.0%	13.3%	6.7%	2.5%	6.15	4.58	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	0	20	90	17	14	4	0%	1.3	18.9%	15.6%	3.3%	4.4%	5.49	5.91	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	0	20	90	17	14	4	0%	1.3	18.9%	15.6%	3.3%	4.4%	5.49	6.15	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	29	0	49	203	36	19	2	0%	1.7	13.7%	10.8%	2.9%	1.0%	2.76	3.85	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	29	0	49	203	36	19	2	0%	1.7	17.7%	9.4%	8.4%	1.0%	2.76	3.32	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	2	71	322	76	33	4	5%	1.6	18.7%	11.5%	7.2%	1.5%	4.20	3.80	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	2	71	322	76	33	4	5%	1.6	18.7%	11.5%	7.2%	1.5%	4.20	3.80	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	2	71	322	76	33	4	5%	1.6	23.6%	10.2%	13.4%	1.2%	4.20	3.09	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	25	0	38	182	32	21	5	0%	1.5	14.2%	12.7%	1.5%	3.3%	7.34	5.31	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	25	0	38	182	32	21	5	0%	1.5	14.2%	12.7%	1.5%	3.3%	7.34	5.31	—
2026	27	AA RAW	Wichita Wind Surge	25	0	38	182	32	21	5	0%	1.5	17.6%	11.5%	6.0%	2.7%	7.34	4.78	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	MIN	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	15.3%	13.2%	2.1%	2.9%	5.42	5.42	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIN	39	0	41	173	27	22	5	0%	1.0	15.9%	13.0%	2.9%	3.0%	5.39	5.44	-0.4
2029	30	MLB MLE	MIN	32	0	33	140	23	18	4	0%	1.0	16.1%	13.0%	3.1%	3.2%	5.45	5.54	-0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIN	12	0	13	55	9	7	2	0%	1.1	15.9%	13.0%	2.9%	3.0%	5.39	5.44	-0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	MIN	16	0	17	72	12	9	2	0%	1.1	16.1%	13.0%	3.1%	3.2%	5.45	5.54	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		28	0	30	126	20	16	4	0%	1.1	16.0%	13.0%	3.0%	3.1%	5.42	5.12	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	134	107	27	0%	1.1	16.0%	13.0%	3.0%	3.1%	5.42	5.12	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		126	4	204	917	150	113	19	3%	1.6	16.4%	12.4%	4.0%	2.0%	4.82	4.39	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		124	4	200	900	148	111	18	3%	1.6	16.4%	12.4%	4.0%	2.0%	4.82	4.39	-2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAWichita Wind Surge · 38 IPFIP 4.58 → 5.31 (+0.73)K% 17.6% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.58%	—	×0.810	14.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.54%	—	×1.100	12.69%
HR / BF /BF	2.75%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.30%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.58 → 5.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 41 IPFIP 3.26 → 3.85 (+0.59)K% 21.8% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.81%	—	×0.810	17.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.17%	—	×1.100	12.29%
HR / BF /BF	1.06%	÷1.028	×1.200	1.24%

Result: FIP 3.26 → 3.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 30 IPFIP 2.85 → 3.73 (+0.88)K% 26.1% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.12%	—	×0.770	20.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.96%	—	×1.150	10.30%
HR / BF /BF	1.49%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.87%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.85 → 3.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Vancouver Canadians · 49 IPFIP 3.33 → 3.85 (+0.52)K% 17.7% → 13.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.73%	—	×0.770	13.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.36%	—	×1.150	10.76%
HR / BF /BF	0.99%	÷1.253	×1.250	0.98%

Result: FIP 3.33 → 3.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Vancouver Canadians · 7 IPFIP 10.20 → 12.37 (+2.17)K% 9.1% → 7.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	9.09%	—	×0.770	7.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	22.73%	—	×1.150	26.14%
HR / BF /BF	9.09%	÷0.952	×1.250	11.94%

Result: FIP 10.20 → 12.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ADunedin Blue Jays · 6 IPFIP 2.18 → 3.15 (+0.97)K% 30.4% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.43%	—	×0.740	22.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.04%	—	×1.180	15.39%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.916	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 2.18 → 3.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 6 IPFIP 1.45 → 2.29 (+0.84)K% 26.1% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.09%	—	×0.680	17.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.35%	—	×1.250	5.43%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.904	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 81).

Result: FIP 1.45 → 2.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Vancouver Canadians · 21 IPFIP 3.50 → 4.38 (+0.87)K% 21.3% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.28%	—	×0.770	16.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.77%	—	×1.150	14.68%
HR / BF /BF	1.06%	÷0.909	×1.250	1.46%

Result: FIP 3.50 → 4.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sam Ryan (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.42	15.3%	13.2%	2.9%	—	5.48	16.0%	3.0%	74	+0.06	—	—	—
Kevin Gryboski R 2002 · 5.02 FIP	28	SU	5.02	13.9%	13.4%	2.5%	.263	3.83	12.0%	2.9%	126	-1.19	3.67	178	87
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	86
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	85
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	84
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	84
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	83
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	83
Kyle McMyne R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	27	SU	4.84	12.5%	12.8%	2.1%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	181	83
David Goforth R 2017 · 5.09 FIP	28	SU	5.09	13.6%	10.2%	3.4%	.282	4.07	14.1%	5.5%	68	-1.02	3.98	256	83
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	82
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	82
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	82
Jose Veras R 2009 · 5.13 FIP	28	SU	5.13	17.8%	12.4%	3.6%	.228	3.57	26.3%	14.0%	186	-1.56	3.37	422	82
Grant Black R 2022 · 5.20 FIP	28	SU	5.20	14.0%	11.0%	3.5%	.250	5.49	15.9%	4.6%	79	+0.29	4.46	215	81
Tyler Mizenko R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	26	SU	5.15	13.3%	10.2%	3.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	104	81
Jake Haberer R 2023 · 5.10 FIP	28	SU	5.10	16.4%	14.7%	2.8%	.262	5.03	16.2%	-1.4%	15	-0.07	3.46	183	80
Eder Llamas R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	29	SU	4.84	12.3%	8.8%	3.0%	.261	3.64	11.3%	4.6%	120	-1.20	3.23	171	80
Brian Bass R 2009 · 4.70 FIP	27	SU	4.70	13.5%	9.8%	2.8%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	4.70	176	80
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	80
Brad Schreiber R 2017 · 4.23 FIP	26	SU	4.23	17.3%	12.7%	1.8%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	171	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	44	15.7%	13.1%	1.16	5.42
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*