Sam Ryan
P
Wichita Wind Surge
Age 27
RHP
6'3" / 228 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 114
ERA5.02
FIP5.02
K%17.2%
BB%12.6%
K-BB%4.6%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 108 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 2 | 26 | 120 | 24 | 16 | 3 | 15% | 2.0 | 16.4% | 14.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 6.15 | 4.47 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 2 | 26 | 120 | 24 | 16 | 3 | 15% | 2.0 | 20.0% | 13.3% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 6.15 | 4.58 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 0 | 20 | 90 | 17 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 18.9% | 15.6% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.49 | 5.91 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 0 | 20 | 90 | 17 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 18.9% | 15.6% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.49 | 6.15 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 29 | 0 | 49 | 203 | 36 | 19 | 2 | 0% | 1.7 | 13.7% | 10.8% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 2.76 | 3.76 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 29 | 0 | 49 | 203 | 36 | 19 | 2 | 0% | 1.7 | 17.7% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 1.0% | 2.76 | 3.32 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 2 | 71 | 322 | 76 | 33 | 4 | 5% | 1.6 | 18.7% | 11.5% | 7.2% | 1.5% | 4.20 | 3.79 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 2 | 71 | 322 | 76 | 33 | 4 | 5% | 1.6 | 23.6% | 10.2% | 13.4% | 1.2% | 4.20 | 3.09 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 25 | 0 | 38 | 182 | 32 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.5 | 14.2% | 12.7% | 1.5% | 3.3% | 7.34 | 5.31 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | MIN | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 51 | 37 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.2% | 12.6% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 5.02 | 5.02 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | MIN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.2% | 12.6% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 5.02 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 108 | 478 | 83 | 58 | 13 | — | — | 17.4% | 12.2% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 5.84 | 5.12 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 17.2% | 12.6% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 5.02 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 51 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.7% | 12.4% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 5.00 | 5.04 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 49 | 34 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.9% | 12.4% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 5.04 | 5.11 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 19 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.7% | 12.4% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 5.00 | 5.04 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 27 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.9% | 12.4% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 5.04 | 5.11 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 47 | 33 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.8% | 12.4% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 5.02 | 4.70 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 149 | 105 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.8% | 12.4% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 5.02 | 4.70 | +1.6 | ||
| Career | — | 126 | 4 | 204 | 917 | 150 | 113 | 18 | 3% | 1.6 | 16.4% | 12.4% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 4.82 | 4.38 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 124 | 4 | 200 | 900 | 148 | 111 | 18 | 3% | 1.6 | 16.4% | 12.4% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 4.82 | 4.38 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sam Ryan (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.02 | 17.2% | 12.6% | 2.5% | — | 5.07 | 17.8% | 5.4% | 133 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Gonzalez Germen R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.11 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .296 | 3.74 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 54 | -0.37 | 3.74 | 146 | 91 |
| Josh Zeid R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.21 | 16.6% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .302 | 5.16 | 16.9% | 5.7% | 194 | +0.95 | 4.21 | 265 | 91 |
| Armando Rivero R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.39 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .256 | 2.81 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.58 | 2.81 | 125 | 89 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 88 |
| Julian Arballo R 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.47 | 15.1% | 13.8% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.38 | 12.6% | 0.6% | 116 | -1.09 | 4.28 | 214 | 86 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 86 |
| Chris Beck R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.83 | 17.4% | 12.2% | 3.0% | .305 | 5.33 | 18.1% | 9.3% | 41 | +0.50 | 3.11 | 313 | 86 |
| David Goforth R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.74 | 14.5% | 12.8% | 2.3% | .333 | 4.50 | 13.9% | 4.6% | 122 | -0.24 | 3.92 | 256 | 85 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 85 |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 85 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2027 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 85 |
| Brad Schreiber R 2025 · 4.10 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.10 | 17.3% | 12.7% | 1.6% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 171 | 84 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.37 | 16.4% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 140 | 84 |
| Rafael Dolis R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.07 | 15.8% | 14.3% | 0.9% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.80 | 162 | 84 |
| Tucker Healy R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.52 | 15.6% | 11.5% | 2.3% | .321 | 5.43 | 19.2% | 8.7% | 24 | +0.91 | 2.85 | 174 | 84 |
| Jose De La Torre R 2028 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 14.5% | 13.1% | 1.5% | .256 | 2.88 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 65 | -1.51 | 2.54 | 130 | 84 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2024 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 83 |
| Confesor Lara R 2024 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.32 | 16.4% | 11.0% | 2.2% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 111 | 83 |
| Cole Uvila R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 20.4% | 13.2% | 1.9% | .360 | 3.16 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 44 | -0.92 | 3.16 | 155 | 83 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 68 | 17.6% | 12.5% | 1.04 | 5.02 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |