Sam Ryan — OGILVIE

Sam Ryan P Wichita Wind Surge

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 228 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 112

ERA5.02

FIP5.02

K%17.2%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%4.7%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	2	26	120	24	16	3	15%	2.0	16.4%	14.7%	1.7%	1.5%	6.15	4.38	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	2	26	120	24	16	3	15%	2.0	20.0%	13.3%	6.7%	2.5%	6.15	4.58	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	0	20	90	17	14	4	0%	1.3	18.9%	15.6%	3.3%	4.4%	5.49	5.91	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	0	20	90	17	14	4	0%	1.3	18.9%	15.6%	3.3%	4.4%	5.49	6.15	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	29	0	49	203	36	19	2	0%	1.7	13.7%	10.8%	2.9%	1.0%	2.76	3.85	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	29	0	49	203	36	19	2	0%	1.7	13.7%	10.8%	2.9%	1.0%	2.76	3.85	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	29	0	49	203	36	19	2	0%	1.7	17.7%	9.4%	8.4%	1.0%	2.76	3.32	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	2	71	322	76	33	4	5%	1.6	18.7%	11.5%	7.2%	1.5%	4.20	3.80	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	2	71	322	76	33	4	5%	1.6	18.7%	11.5%	7.2%	1.5%	4.20	3.80	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	2	71	322	76	33	4	5%	1.6	23.6%	10.2%	13.4%	1.2%	4.20	3.09	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	25	0	38	182	32	21	5	0%	1.5	14.2%	12.7%	1.5%	3.3%	7.34	5.31	—
YTD	27	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	25	0	38	182	32	21	5	0%	1.5	14.2%	12.7%	1.5%	3.3%	7.34	5.31	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AA RAW	MIN	25	0	38	182	32	21	5	0%	1.5	17.6%	11.5%	6.0%	2.7%	7.34	4.58	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	MIN	6	0	6	27	5	3	1	0%	1.1	17.2%	12.6%	4.7%	2.6%	5.02	5.02	-0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	MIN	—	—	44	209	37	24	6	—	—	17.5%	11.7%	5.9%	2.7%	7.01	5.27	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	MIN	65	0	68	287	51	35	8	0%	1.0	17.7%	12.4%	5.3%	2.7%	5.00	5.03	-0.4
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIN	62	0	65	274	49	34	8	0%	1.0	17.9%	12.4%	5.5%	2.9%	5.05	5.11	-0.4
2027	28	MLB CTX	MIN	25	0	26	110	19	14	3	0%	1.0	17.7%	12.4%	5.3%	2.7%	5.00	5.03	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIN	34	0	36	152	27	19	4	0%	1.1	17.9%	12.4%	5.5%	2.9%	5.05	5.11	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	0	62	261	46	32	7	0%	1.0	17.8%	12.4%	5.5%	2.8%	5.03	4.70	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	149	104	23	0%	1.1	17.8%	12.4%	5.5%	2.8%	5.03	4.70	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		126	4	204	917	150	113	19	3%	1.6	16.4%	12.4%	4.0%	2.0%	4.82	4.39	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		124	4	200	900	148	111	18	3%	1.6	16.4%	12.4%	4.0%	2.0%	4.82	4.39	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sam Ryan (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.02	17.2%	12.6%	2.6%	—	5.07	17.8%	5.4%	133	+0.05	—	—	—
Gonzalez Germen R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	27	SU	4.24	18.0%	12.5%	1.9%	.296	3.88	19.2%	8.3%	54	-0.36	3.70	146	92
Josh Zeid R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	28	SU	4.12	16.6%	12.5%	1.6%	.302	5.19	16.9%	5.7%	194	+1.07	4.12	265	90
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	89
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	88
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	88
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	86
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	85
David Goforth R 2016 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	14.5%	12.8%	2.1%	.333	4.52	13.9%	4.6%	122	-0.16	3.98	256	85
Brad Schreiber R 2017 · 4.23 FIP	26	SU	4.23	17.3%	12.7%	1.8%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	171	85
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	85
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	85
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.53	13.6%	5.9%	162	+0.30	3.85	291	84
Jose De La Torre R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	29	SU	4.40	14.5%	13.1%	1.6%	.256	2.98	21.6%	14.2%	65	-1.42	2.64	130	84
Chris Jefferson R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	26	SU	4.45	16.6%	11.8%	2.3%	.333	5.65	16.4%	2.8%	46	+1.20	3.53	140	84
Tucker Healy R 2017 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	15.6%	11.5%	2.0%	.321	5.20	19.2%	8.7%	24	+0.87	2.82	174	83
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	83
Confesor Lara R 2016 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	16.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	111	83
Jake Dunning R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	27	SU	4.19	14.2%	11.4%	1.5%	.300	4.71	13.9%	2.8%	15	+0.52	4.19	120	83
Rafael Dolis R 2015 · 4.02 FIP	27	SU	4.02	15.8%	14.3%	0.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	162	83
Chris Beck R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	27	SU	4.82	17.4%	12.2%	3.0%	.305	5.28	18.1%	9.3%	41	+0.46	3.22	313	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	17.6%	12.4%	1.05	5.02
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04