Owen Murphy
P
Gwinnett Stripers
Age 22
RHP
6'1" / 190 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.4 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION85 act + 43 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10899vR 90
ERA3.89
FIP3.89
K%25.4%
BB%7.6%
K-BB%17.8%
ROS IP43
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 128 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 5 | 12 | 49 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 2.4 | 34.7% | 12.2% | 22.4% | 0.0% | 4.50 | 1.72 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 5 | 12 | 49 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 2.4 | 34.7% | 12.2% | 22.4% | 0.0% | 4.50 | 1.77 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 90 | 382 | 113 | 32 | 9 | 100% | 4.3 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 12.2% | 3.2% | 4.72 | 4.23 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 90 | 382 | 113 | 32 | 9 | 100% | 4.3 | 29.6% | 8.4% | 21.2% | 2.4% | 4.72 | 2.96 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ | Rome Emperors | 7 | 7 | 41 | 155 | 60 | 12 | 2 | 100% | 5.9 | 29.8% | 8.9% | 20.9% | 2.4% | 1.54 | 3.05 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ | Rome Emperors | 7 | 7 | 41 | 155 | 60 | 12 | 2 | 100% | 5.9 | 38.7% | 7.7% | 31.0% | 1.3% | 1.54 | 1.69 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 7 | 30 | 110 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 100% | 4.3 | 22.1% | 6.8% | 15.3% | 1.9% | 1.19 | 3.16 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 7 | 30 | 110 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 100% | 4.3 | 30.9% | 5.5% | 25.5% | 0.9% | 1.19 | 1.88 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 18 | 16 | 85 | 353 | 96 | 38 | 13 | 89% | 4.7 | 23.3% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 4.4% | 4.34 | 5.05 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | ATL | 8 | 8 | 43 | 181 | 46 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.3 | 25.4% | 7.6% | 17.8% | 2.9% | 3.89 | 3.89 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | ATL | 8 | 8 | 43 | 182 | 46 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.4 | 25.4% | 7.6% | 17.8% | 2.9% | 3.89 | 3.89 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 128 | 534 | 142 | 52 | 18 | — | — | 26.6% | 9.7% | 16.9% | 3.4% | 4.19 | 4.66 | +1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 47 | 198 | 142 | 52 | 18 | — | — | 71.8% | 26.2% | 45.6% | 9.2% | 11.44 | 5.42 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | ATL | 9 | 9 | 49 | 205 | 53 | 15 | 6 | 100% | 5.4 | 25.9% | 7.4% | 18.5% | 2.9% | 3.85 | 3.80 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | ATL | 9 | 9 | 50 | 210 | 55 | 15 | 6 | 100% | 5.5 | 26.3% | 7.3% | 19.0% | 2.8% | 3.80 | 3.75 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 9 | 9 | 50 | 213 | 57 | 16 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 26.6% | 7.3% | 19.3% | 2.8% | 3.76 | 3.72 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 8 | 8 | 50 | 213 | 57 | 16 | 6 | 100% | 6.3 | 26.7% | 7.3% | 19.4% | 2.8% | 3.73 | 3.71 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 8 | 8 | 50 | 209 | 56 | 15 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 26.7% | 7.4% | 19.3% | 2.9% | 3.74 | 3.75 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 54 | 15 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.6% | 7.5% | 19.0% | 3.0% | 3.80 | 3.83 | +0.4 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | ATL | 9 | 9 | 46 | 194 | 50 | 14 | 6 | 100% | 5.1 | 25.9% | 7.4% | 18.5% | 2.9% | 3.85 | 3.80 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | ATL | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 52 | 15 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.3% | 7.3% | 19.0% | 2.8% | 3.80 | 3.75 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 54 | 15 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.6% | 7.3% | 19.3% | 2.8% | 3.76 | 3.72 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 54 | 15 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.7% | 7.3% | 19.4% | 2.8% | 3.73 | 3.71 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 53 | 15 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.7% | 7.4% | 19.3% | 2.9% | 3.74 | 3.75 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 52 | 15 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 26.6% | 7.5% | 19.0% | 3.0% | 3.80 | 3.83 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 59 | 57 | 329 | 1386 | 365 | 102 | 39 | 97% | 5.6 | 26.3% | 7.3% | 19.0% | 2.8% | 3.78 | 3.37 | +7.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 35 | 200 | 843 | 222 | 62 | 24 | 97% | 5.6 | 26.3% | 7.3% | 19.0% | 2.8% | 3.78 | 3.37 | +4.8 | ||
| Career | — | 58 | 56 | 258 | 1049 | 254 | 107 | 33 | 97% | 4.4 | 24.2% | 10.2% | 14.0% | 3.2% | 3.66 | 4.10 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 43 | 200 | 813 | 197 | 83 | 26 | 97% | 4.4 | 24.2% | 10.2% | 14.0% | 3.2% | 3.66 | 4.10 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Owen Murphy (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.89 | 25.4% | 7.6% | 2.9% | — | 3.76 | 26.3% | 18.9% | 149 | -0.13 | — | — | — |
| German Nunez R 2026 · 2.77 FIP | 22 | SP | 2.77 | 24.8% | 6.8% | 1.7% | .298 | 3.22 | 22.1% | 11.2% | 19 | +0.45 | 2.27 | 151 | 87 |
| Jimmy Joyce R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.67 | 25.0% | 9.0% | 2.8% | .341 | 3.99 | 20.4% | 9.7% | 242 | +0.32 | 3.44 | 259 | 86 |
| Dylan DeLucia R 2027 · 3.65 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.65 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .241 | 5.26 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 176 | +1.61 | 3.65 | 211 | 85 |
| Kumar Rocker R 2027 · 2.94 FIP | 23 | SP | 2.94 | 29.1% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .317 | 3.94 | 21.6% | 13.6% | 202 | +1.00 | 1.95 | 230 | 84 |
| Pat Gallagher R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.56 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.43 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 195 | -0.13 | 2.97 | 258 | 82 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .329 | 3.55 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.68 | 2.49 | 298 | 82 |
| Nolan Perry R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.24 | 29.0% | 9.7% | 2.5% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 136 | 82 |
| Cole Henry R 2026 · 3.12 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.12 | 29.8% | 7.8% | 2.8% | .233 | 4.91 | 21.8% | 7.7% | 56 | +1.79 | 3.12 | 180 | 82 |
| Ricky DeVito R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.36 | 22.8% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .309 | 4.57 | 21.5% | 2.4% | 151 | +0.21 | 4.05 | 215 | 82 |
| David Sandlin R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.89 | 24.8% | 6.5% | 3.7% | .360 | 4.44 | 21.5% | 11.8% | 217 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 275 | 82 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2027 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.69 | 25.1% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .256 | 5.06 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 89 | +1.37 | 3.69 | 333 | 81 |
| Kyle Funkhouser R 2027 · 3.45 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.45 | 24.5% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .329 | 4.35 | 19.0% | 5.9% | 193 | +0.90 | 3.45 | 387 | 80 |
| Drew Anderson R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.54 | 21.1% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .295 | 4.74 | 16.3% | 7.6% | 273 | +1.20 | 3.11 | 506 | 79 |
| Tanner Burns R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.07 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .292 | 5.42 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 244 | +1.35 | 4.07 | 378 | 79 |
| Garrett Burhenn R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.19 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 3.5% | .333 | 4.44 | 16.9% | 8.8% | 341 | +0.25 | 4.19 | 433 | 79 |
| Bryce Mayer R 2027 · 3.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.30 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .304 | 4.80 | 27.2% | 12.2% | 52 | +1.50 | 3.30 | 140 | 79 |
| Cody Morris R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.00 | 21.6% | 8.1% | 3.1% | .362 | 2.86 | 31.1% | 20.9% | 96 | -1.14 | 2.26 | 256 | 79 |
| Braxton Bragg R 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.78 | 22.3% | 6.4% | 3.2% | .325 | 2.47 | 26.2% | 18.1% | 59 | -1.31 | 2.47 | 155 | 78 |
| Ryan Sloan R 2024 · 3.75 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.75 | 24.1% | 5.1% | 3.7% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 133 | 78 |
| Gavin Stone R 2026 · 3.22 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.22 | 27.3% | 7.8% | 2.6% | .385 | 3.71 | 23.0% | 14.2% | 394 | +0.49 | 2.39 | 485 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 49 | 26.3% | 7.4% | 1.11 | 3.79 |
| Sergio Romo ('21) | 7 | 50 | 26.3% | 7.0% | 1.20 | 3.70 |
| Joakim Soria ('21) | 7 | 54 | 26.1% | 7.8% | 0.92 | 3.65 |
| Héctor Rondón ('20) | 6 | 53 | 25.3% | 7.1% | 1.19 | 3.48 |
| Trevor May ('23) | 8 | 51 | 27.6% | 8.3% | 1.18 | 3.83 |
| Chris Devenski ('24) | 6 | 62 | 26.0% | 6.9% | 1.25 | 3.61 |
| Ryan Tepera ('22) | 7 | 48 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 1.12 | 3.53 |