Owen Murphy — OGILVIE

Owen Murphy P Gwinnett Stripers

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 3.4 · 2030 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION124 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10092vR 84

ERA3.54

FIP3.54

K%24.7%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%17.1%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 128 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$28M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL5055

CMD5060

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.0M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.9	$14M	+$13M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.2	$15M	+$14M
2029	Arb-1	$11M	+2.4	$15M	+$7M
2030	Arb-2	$20M	+2.4	$14M	+$1.0M
2031	Arb-3	$29M	+2.3	$13M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$33M		$71M	+$36M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	5	12	49	17	6	0	100%	2.4	34.7%	12.2%	22.4%	0.0%	4.50	1.72	—
2022	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	5	12	49	17	6	0	100%	2.4	34.7%	12.2%	22.4%	0.0%	4.50	1.77	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	90	382	113	32	9	100%	4.3	22.0%	9.9%	12.2%	3.1%	4.72	4.20	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	90	382	113	32	9	100%	4.3	22.0%	9.9%	12.2%	3.1%	4.72	4.20	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	90	382	113	32	9	100%	4.3	29.6%	8.4%	21.2%	2.4%	4.72	2.96	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Rome Emperors	7	7	41	155	60	12	2	100%	5.9	29.8%	8.9%	20.9%	1.9%	1.54	2.78	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Rome Emperors	7	7	41	155	60	12	2	100%	5.9	29.8%	8.9%	20.9%	1.9%	1.54	2.78	—
2024	20	A+ RAW	Rome Emperors	7	7	41	155	60	12	2	100%	5.9	38.7%	7.7%	31.0%	1.3%	1.54	1.69	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	30	110	34	6	1	100%	4.3	22.1%	6.8%	15.3%	1.5%	1.19	2.93	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	30	110	34	6	1	100%	4.3	22.1%	6.8%	15.3%	1.5%	1.19	2.93	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	7	30	110	34	6	1	100%	4.3	30.9%	5.5%	25.5%	0.9%	1.19	1.88	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			3	1	7	29	6	2	1	33%	2.2	20.7%	6.9%	13.8%	3.4%	4.05	4.15	+0.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	26	24	124	516	127	54	17	92%	4.8	20.5%	10.3%	10.2%	3.7%	3.63	4.72	—
YTD	22	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	26	24	124	516	127	54	17	92%	4.8	20.5%	10.3%	10.2%	3.7%	3.63	4.72	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	AA RAW	ATL	5	5	21	98	27	18	5	100%	4.1	27.6%	18.4%	9.2%	5.1%	6.10	5.90	—
2026	22	AAA RAW	ATL	18	18	97	389	94	34	11	100%	5.4	24.2%	8.7%	15.4%	2.8%	3.07	3.72	—
2026	22	MLB RAW	ATL	3	1	7	29	6	2	1	33%	2.2	20.7%	6.9%	13.8%	3.4%	4.05	4.12	—
SO FAR	22	MLB RAW	ATL	3	1	7	29	6	2	1	33%	2.2	20.7%	6.9%	13.8%	3.4%	4.05	4.12	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	ATL	1	1	4	16	4	1	0	100%	3.9	24.7%	7.6%	17.1%	2.8%	3.54	3.54	+0.1
ROS	22	MLB CTX	ATL	1	1	4	17	4	1	0	100%	4.0	24.7%	7.6%	17.1%	2.8%	3.54	3.54	+0.1
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	ATL	—	—	128	532	131	55	17	—	—	24.6%	10.4%	14.2%	3.3%	3.63	4.68	+0.3
FULL	22	MLB A+C	ATL	—	—	11	45	131	55	17	—	—	294.1%	124.0%	170.1%	39.2%	43.94	15.48	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	ATL	27	27	146	616	156	43	17	100%	5.4	25.3%	7.0%	18.3%	2.8%	3.84	3.79	+1.9
2028	24	MLB MLE	ATL	30	30	166	699	179	48	20	100%	5.5	25.7%	6.9%	18.8%	2.8%	3.79	3.73	+2.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	ATL	30	30	175	739	191	50	21	100%	5.8	25.9%	6.8%	19.1%	2.8%	3.74	3.70	+2.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	ATL	29	29	175	739	192	50	21	100%	6.0	26.0%	6.8%	19.2%	2.8%	3.71	3.69	+2.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	ATL	29	29	172	728	189	50	21	100%	5.9	25.9%	6.8%	19.1%	2.9%	3.72	3.73	+2.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	ATL	29	29	172	728	188	51	22	100%	5.9	25.8%	7.0%	18.8%	3.0%	3.77	3.81	+2.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	ATL	27	27	165	695	178	50	22	100%	6.1	25.6%	7.2%	18.4%	3.1%	3.87	3.94	+1.9
2034	30	MLB MLE	ATL	26	26	155	653	165	49	22	100%	5.9	25.2%	7.5%	17.7%	3.3%	4.02	4.12	+1.4
2035	31	MLB MLE	ATL	24	24	144	609	151	48	22	100%	6.0	24.8%	7.9%	17.0%	3.5%	4.20	4.32	+1.0
2036	32	MLB MLE	ATL	22	22	134	564	137	47	21	100%	6.1	24.4%	8.3%	16.1%	3.8%	4.41	4.55	+0.5
2037	33	MLB MLE	ATL	20	20	122	517	124	45	21	100%	6.1	23.9%	8.7%	15.2%	4.1%	4.64	4.80	+0.1
2038	34	MLB MLE	ATL	19	19	112	471	110	43	21	100%	5.9	23.3%	9.2%	14.1%	4.4%	4.90	5.07	-0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	ATL	26	26	139	587	149	41	17	100%	5.3	25.3%	7.0%	18.3%	2.8%	3.84	3.79	+1.9
2028	24	MLB CTX	ATL	28	28	157	663	170	45	19	100%	5.6	25.7%	6.9%	18.8%	2.8%	3.79	3.73	+2.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	ATL	28	28	166	701	181	47	20	100%	5.9	25.9%	6.8%	19.1%	2.8%	3.74	3.70	+2.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	ATL	28	28	166	701	182	47	20	100%	5.9	26.0%	6.8%	19.2%	2.8%	3.71	3.69	+2.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	ATL	27	27	164	692	180	47	20	100%	6.1	25.9%	6.8%	19.1%	2.9%	3.72	3.73	+2.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	ATL	27	27	164	692	179	48	21	100%	6.1	25.8%	7.0%	18.8%	3.0%	3.77	3.81	+2.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	ATL	26	26	156	659	169	47	21	100%	6.0	25.6%	7.2%	18.4%	3.1%	3.87	3.94	+1.8
2034	30	MLB CTX	ATL	24	24	147	621	157	47	21	100%	6.1	25.2%	7.5%	17.7%	3.3%	4.02	4.12	+1.4
2035	31	MLB CTX	ATL	23	23	137	578	144	45	20	100%	6.0	24.8%	7.9%	17.0%	3.5%	4.20	4.32	+0.9
2036	32	MLB CTX	ATL	21	21	127	536	131	44	20	100%	6.0	24.4%	8.3%	16.1%	3.8%	4.41	4.55	+0.5
2037	33	MLB CTX	ATL	19	19	116	490	117	43	20	100%	6.1	23.9%	8.7%	15.2%	4.1%	4.64	4.80	+0.1
2038	34	MLB CTX	ATL	17	17	101	426	100	39	19	100%	5.9	23.3%	9.2%	14.1%	4.4%	4.90	5.07	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		299	297	1751	7395	1867	546	237	99%	5.9	25.3%	7.4%	17.9%	3.2%	4.00	3.66	+26.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	845	213	62	27	99%	5.9	25.3%	7.4%	17.9%	3.2%	4.00	3.66	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		66	64	297	1212	277	118	36	97%	4.5	22.9%	9.8%	13.1%	2.9%	3.45	4.02	+18.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	43	200	816	187	80	24	97%	4.5	22.9%	9.8%	13.1%	2.9%	3.45	4.02	+2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Owen Murphy (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.84	25.3%	7.4%	2.8%	—	3.74	25.6%	18.8%	487	-0.10	—	—	—
Jimmy Joyce R 2021 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP	3.78	25.0%	9.0%	3.0%	.341	4.03	20.4%	9.7%	242	+0.25	3.39	259	87
Kumar Rocker R 2023 · 2.86 FIP	23	SP	2.86	29.1%	7.3%	2.4%	.317	3.93	22.0%	13.5%	250	+1.07	1.93	278	85
Ricky DeVito R 2021 · 4.04 FIP	22	SP	4.04	22.8%	8.8%	3.2%	.309	4.65	21.5%	2.4%	151	+0.61	4.04	215	83
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	82
Cole Henry R 2021 · 2.96 FIP	22	SP	2.96	29.8%	7.8%	2.5%	.233	4.99	21.8%	7.7%	56	+2.03	2.96	186	82
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	81
David Sandlin R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	22	SP	4.05	24.8%	6.5%	4.0%	.360	4.39	21.4%	12.1%	253	+0.34	3.94	312	81
Cade Horton R 2023 · 3.22 FIP	21	SP	3.22	26.0%	8.8%	2.2%	.273	3.60	21.6%	13.8%	181	+0.38	3.22	270	80
Kyle Funkhouser R 2017 · 3.28 FIP	23	SP	3.28	24.5%	8.7%	2.1%	.329	4.40	19.0%	5.9%	193	+1.12	3.28	387	80
Nick Kingham R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	20.7%	5.4%	2.9%	.330	3.95	18.0%	12.1%	276	+0.34	2.31	363	79
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	78
Drew Anderson R 2016 · 3.37 FIP	22	SP	3.37	21.1%	9.2%	1.6%	.295	4.71	16.3%	7.6%	273	+1.34	2.95	547	78
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.32	19.2%	6.3%	244	+0.98	4.34	382	78
Carlo Reyes R 2019 · 2.88 FIP	21	SP	2.88	19.8%	6.6%	1.1%	.300	4.15	22.7%	13.3%	106	+1.27	2.60	229	78
Cody Morris R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	22	SP	3.73	21.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.362	2.85	31.1%	20.9%	96	-0.88	2.23	256	77
McCade Brown R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	21	SP	4.05	23.0%	7.1%	3.6%	.349	4.50	24.1%	12.2%	117	+0.45	3.99	207	77
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.50	21.3%	14.6%	262	+0.31	3.15	293	77
Garrett Burhenn R 2022 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	21.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.333	4.37	16.9%	8.8%	341	-0.03	4.30	433	77
Gavin Stone R 2021 · 3.15 FIP	22	SP	3.15	27.3%	7.8%	2.5%	.385	3.61	22.7%	14.3%	394	+0.46	2.39	485	77
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9.4	145	25.3%	7.4%	1.24	4.00
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01