Owen Murphy

P Gwinnett Stripers

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	A+ATL	7	7	41	1.54	1.69	38.7%	7.7%	—	K 29.8% · BB 8.9% · FIP 2.78
2025	21	MIX2 levels	7	7	30	1.19	1.88	30.9%	5.5%	—	K 22.1% · BB 6.8% · FIP 2.93
2026	22	MIX3 levels	28	24	129	3.83	4.38	23.9%	10.1%	1.6	K 20.6% · BB 9.8% · FIP 4.84
2027PROJ	23	MLBATL	18	18	95	4.55	4.72	21.3%	8.8%	0.7
2028PROJ78% MLB	24	MLBATL	21	21	116	4.52	4.53	22.2%	8.3%	1.2
2029PROJ86% MLB	25	MLBATL	22	22	128	4.46	4.43	22.7%	8.0%	1.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo27

K%10

xwOBA vs10

Career WAR0.3 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 16, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 69%

CompsDylan DeLucia (age 23) · Cody Laweryson (age 23) · Chance Kirby (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.55

FIP4.72

K%21.3%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%12.5%

Proj IP149

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 149 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2792.9

Whiff%

p1019.2%

p1016.1%

xwOBA vs

p100.403

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	5	12	49	17	6	0	100%	2.4	34.7%	12.2%	22.4%	0.0%	4.50	1.72	—
2022	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	5	12	49	17	6	0	100%	2.4	34.7%	12.2%	22.4%	0.0%	4.50	1.77	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	90	382	113	32	9	100%	4.3	22.0%	9.9%	12.2%	3.1%	4.72	4.20	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	90	382	113	32	9	100%	4.3	29.6%	8.4%	21.2%	2.4%	4.72	2.96	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Rome Emperors	7	7	41	155	60	12	2	100%	5.9	29.8%	8.9%	20.9%	1.9%	1.54	2.78	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Rome Emperors	7	7	41	155	60	12	2	100%	5.9	29.8%	8.9%	20.9%	1.9%	1.54	2.78	—
2024	20	A+ RAW	Rome Emperors	7	7	41	155	60	12	2	100%	5.9	38.7%	7.7%	31.0%	1.3%	1.54	1.69	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	30	110	34	6	1	100%	4.3	22.1%	6.8%	15.3%	1.5%	1.19	2.93	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	30	110	34	6	1	100%	4.3	22.1%	6.8%	15.3%	1.5%	1.19	2.93	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	7	30	110	34	6	1	100%	4.3	30.9%	5.5%	25.5%	0.9%	1.19	1.88	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	24	129	543	130	55	20	86%	4.6	20.6%	9.8%	10.7%	4.1%	3.83	4.84	+0.8
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	24	129	543	130	55	20	86%	4.6	20.6%	9.8%	10.7%	4.1%	3.83	4.84	+0.8
2026	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	24	129	543	130	55	20	86%	4.6	23.9%	10.1%	13.8%	3.7%	3.83	4.38	+1.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			5	1	12	56	9	3	4	20%	2.4	16.1%	5.4%	10.7%	7.1%	6.00	6.68	-0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	ATL	18	18	95	401	86	35	14	100%	5.3	21.3%	8.8%	12.5%	3.5%	4.55	4.72	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	ATL	27	27	149	630	140	52	22	100%	5.5	22.2%	8.3%	13.9%	3.4%	4.52	4.53	+1.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	ATL	26	26	149	630	143	50	21	100%	5.7	22.7%	8.0%	14.7%	3.4%	4.46	4.43	+1.7
2030	26	MLB MLE	ATL	21	21	124	523	120	41	18	100%	5.9	22.9%	7.9%	14.9%	3.4%	4.42	4.39	+1.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	ATL	20	20	120	506	115	40	17	100%	6.0	22.8%	8.0%	14.8%	3.4%	4.43	4.43	+1.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	ATL	20	20	118	496	113	40	17	100%	5.9	22.7%	8.1%	14.5%	3.5%	4.48	4.51	+1.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	ATL	18	18	108	457	101	38	17	100%	6.0	22.1%	8.4%	13.7%	3.6%	4.60	4.67	+0.9
2034	30	MLB MLE	ATL	16	16	97	411	88	36	16	100%	6.1	21.4%	8.7%	12.7%	3.8%	4.77	4.88	+0.6
2028	24	MLB CTX	ATL	21	21	116	490	109	40	17	100%	5.5	22.2%	8.3%	13.9%	3.4%	4.52	4.53	+1.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	ATL	22	22	128	540	123	43	18	100%	5.8	22.7%	8.0%	14.7%	3.4%	4.46	4.43	+1.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	ATL	18	18	111	469	107	37	16	100%	6.2	22.9%	7.9%	14.9%	3.4%	4.42	4.39	+1.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	ATL	18	18	110	464	106	37	16	100%	6.1	22.8%	8.0%	14.8%	3.4%	4.43	4.43	+1.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	ATL	18	18	109	460	104	37	16	100%	6.1	22.7%	8.1%	14.5%	3.5%	4.48	4.51	+1.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	ATL	17	17	101	426	94	36	16	100%	5.9	22.1%	8.4%	13.7%	3.6%	4.60	4.67	+0.9
2034	30	MLB CTX	ATL	16	16	93	393	84	34	15	100%	5.8	21.4%	8.7%	12.7%	3.8%	4.77	4.88	+0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		135	131	781	3302	737	268	117	97%	5.8	22.3%	8.1%	14.2%	3.6%	4.54	4.20	+11.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	34	200	846	189	69	30	97%	5.8	22.3%	8.1%	14.2%	3.6%	4.54	4.20	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		68	64	302	1239	283	118	39	94%	4.4	22.9%	9.6%	13.3%	3.1%	3.54	4.09	+8.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	42	200	820	187	78	26	94%	4.4	22.9%	9.6%	13.3%	3.1%	3.54	4.09	+1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 97 IPFIP 3.72 → 4.05 (+0.33)K% 24.2% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.16%	—	×0.860	20.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.74%	—	×0.900	7.87%
HR / BF /BF	2.83%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.11%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.72 → 4.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAColumbus Clingstones · 21 IPFIP 5.90 → 7.14 (+1.23)K% 27.6% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.55%	—	×0.810	22.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.37%	—	×1.100	20.20%
HR / BF /BF	5.10%	÷1.000	×1.200	6.12%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.90 → 7.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Rome Emperors · 27 IPFIP 1.97 → 2.93 (+0.96)K% 28.7% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.71%	—	×0.770	22.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.94%	—	×1.150	6.83%
HR / BF /BF	0.99%	÷0.819	×1.250	1.51%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 64).

Result: FIP 1.97 → 2.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Rome Emperors · 41 IPFIP 1.52 → 2.78 (+1.26)K% 38.7% → 29.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.71%	—	×0.770	29.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.74%	—	×1.150	8.90%
HR / BF /BF	1.29%	÷0.831	×1.250	1.94%

Result: FIP 1.52 → 2.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAugusta GreenJackets · 73 IPFIP 3.02 → 4.39 (+1.37)K% 31.4% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.39%	—	×0.740	23.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.06%	—	×1.180	10.69%
HR / BF /BF	2.59%	÷0.976	×1.300	3.45%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 3.02 → 4.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Rome Braves · 17 IPFIP 2.70 → 3.39 (+0.70)K% 21.9% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.92%	—	×0.770	16.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.48%	—	×1.150	6.30%
HR / BF /BF	1.37%	÷1.022	×1.250	1.68%

Result: FIP 2.70 → 3.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAugusta GreenJackets · 7 IPFIP 2.84 → 3.95 (+1.11)K% 31.2% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.25%	—	×0.740	23.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.75%	—	×1.180	22.12%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.127	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.84 → 3.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Owen Murphy (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.5%	—	4.45	22.6%	14.5%	422	-0.27	—	—	—
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	85
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.48	21.4%	12.8%	178	-0.58	2.48	298	83
Chance Kirby R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP	4.14	17.8%	5.7%	3.3%	.298	5.61	14.2%	6.7%	166	+1.47	4.14	325	82
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.19	22.1%	14.2%	422	+0.33	3.69	570	82
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	81
Bud Norris R 2009 · 4.47 FIP	24	SP	4.47	21.7%	9.6%	3.6%	.309	4.01	22.5%	13.5%	508	-0.46	3.51	1,221	80
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	80
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.42	20.6%	11.4%	217	-0.41	3.07	280	80
Casey Kelly R 2012 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP	4.29	19.1%	6.6%	3.6%	.354	4.21	13.6%	4.9%	109	-0.08	4.08	636	80
Gus Varland R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	19.6%	8.7%	3.2%	.294	5.73	18.1%	5.7%	105	+1.44	2.39	334	79
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.05	17.5%	10.6%	280	-0.88	3.90	299	79
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.53	19.8%	6.6%	278	+1.79	3.74	362	78
Trevor May R 2014 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP	4.40	20.7%	9.9%	3.3%	.369	3.18	25.0%	19.1%	157	-1.22	3.05	477	78
Glenn Sparkman R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	23	SP	3.76	20.0%	11.6%	1.6%	.296	3.70	15.9%	10.9%	207	-0.06	3.56	363	78
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	78
Nick Kingham R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	20.7%	5.4%	2.9%	.330	3.95	18.0%	12.1%	276	+0.34	2.31	363	77
JR Ritchie R 2024 · 3.96 FIP	21	SP	3.96	22.8%	9.1%	3.0%	.260	4.36	21.1%	10.5%	296	+0.40	1.00	341	77
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	452	77
Tim Redding R 2001 · 4.88 FIP	23	SP-	4.88	22.1%	9.6%	4.4%	.321	4.34	15.1%	6.6%	350	-0.54	3.97	822	77
Silvano Hechavarria R 2024 · 4.05 FIP	21	SP	4.05	20.0%	10.3%	2.4%	.212	5.06	15.6%	5.4%	169	+1.01	3.90	218	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.1	128	22.2%	8.2%	1.37	4.54
Tyler Anderson ('25)	6.3	126	19.5%	7.8%	1.32	4.30
Jon Gray ('25)	6.2	123	23.4%	7.8%	1.17	4.49
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.1	138	21.3%	7.8%	1.48	4.52
Steve Stone ('71-'81, 16 WAR*)	8.9	163	21.3%*	9.2%*	1.34*	4.35*
Craig Swan ('73-'84, 10 WAR*)	6.2	124	18.8%*	7.1%*	1.36*	4.46*
John Montefusco ('74-'86, 20 WAR*)	8.3	150	22.5%*	7.3%*	1.20*	4.16*