Owen Murphy
P
Columbus Clingstones
+0.4
WAR
Age 22
RHP
6'1" / 190 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.4 · 2028
ERA4.15
FIP4.15
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.8%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%14.9%
IP32
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2028
OFP—50
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 18 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 5 | 5 | 12 | 49 | 17 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.50 | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A+ | Rome Braves | 21 | 21 | 90 | 382 | 113 | 32 | 9 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.72 | 4.19 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ | Rome Emperors | 7 | 7 | 41 | 155 | 60 | 12 | 2 | 29.8% | 8.9% | 2.0% | 1.54 | 2.81 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Rome Emperors | 7 | 7 | 30 | 110 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 22.1% | 6.8% | 1.5% | 1.19 | 2.91 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | AA | Columbus Clingstones | 3 | 3 | 13 | 57 | 16 | 9 | 2 | 22.7% | 17.4% | 4.2% | 4.05 | 5.69 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | ATL | 32 | — | 32 | 135 | 32 | 12 | 4 | 23.8% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.15 | 4.15 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 45 | 192 | 48 | 21 | 6 | 25.1% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 4.12 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | ATL | 33 | — | 33 | 140 | 34 | 12 | 4 | 24.5% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.08 | 4.03 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | ATL | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 24.9% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.02 | 3.96 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 37 | 12 | 4 | 25.2% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 3.97 | 3.92 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 37 | 12 | 4 | 25.4% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 3.94 | 3.91 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 37 | 12 | 4 | 25.4% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 3.93 | 3.92 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 34 | — | 34 | 142 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 25.4% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 3.94 | 3.94 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 35 | 12 | 4 | 25.2% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 3.97 | 3.99 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 32 | — | 32 | 134 | 34 | 11 | 4 | 25.1% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.02 | 4.05 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 32 | 11 | 4 | 24.8% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.08 | 4.13 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 31 | 11 | 4 | 24.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.16 | 4.21 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 43 | 43 | 186 | 753 | 185 | 75 | 19 | 24.5% | 9.9% | 2.5% | 3.38 | 3.67 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 46 | 200 | 808 | 199 | 81 | 20 | 24.5% | 9.9% | 2.5% | 3.38 | 3.67 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Owen Murphy (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.15 | 23.8% | 8.8% | 2.8% | — | 3.97 | 24.9% | 16.5% | 102 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Sam Delaplane R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.18 | 24.6% | 7.7% | 2.1% | .342 | 2.87 | 32.7% | 23.4% | 128 | -0.31 | 2.58 | 194 | 92 |
| Addison Russ R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.55 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .324 | 3.08 | 25.6% | 17.5% | 121 | -0.47 | 3.07 | 194 | 92 |
| Jimmy Joyce R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.78 | 25.0% | 9.0% | 3.0% | .341 | 4.02 | 20.4% | 9.7% | 242 | +0.24 | 3.40 | 259 | 91 |
| Kenny Oakley R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.50 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .348 | 3.89 | 17.3% | 7.8% | 115 | +0.39 | 3.18 | 144 | 90 |
| Connor Cooke R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.37 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.2% | .350 | 4.28 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.91 | 2.93 | 103 | 90 |
| Antonio Menendez R 2027 · 2.93 FIP | 23 | SU | 2.93 | 24.7% | 8.1% | 1.6% | .314 | 3.71 | 19.9% | 6.2% | 166 | +0.78 | 2.93 | 188 | 89 |
| Eric Orze R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.46 | 26.9% | 7.6% | 3.0% | .284 | 4.34 | 27.8% | 15.6% | 170 | +0.88 | 3.46 | 290 | 89 |
| Daniel Bies R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 24.5% | 6.8% | 3.8% | .339 | 3.16 | 20.3% | 11.0% | 89 | -0.80 | 3.16 | 115 | 89 |
| Cody Palmquist R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.20 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.95 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.75 | 4.20 | 104 | 89 |
| Collin Kober R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.39 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .268 | 2.76 | 24.0% | 17.9% | 128 | -0.63 | 2.38 | 294 | 88 |
| Ricky DeVito R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.10 | 22.8% | 8.8% | 3.3% | .309 | 4.62 | 21.5% | 2.4% | 151 | +0.52 | 4.10 | 215 | 88 |
| Dylan DeLucia R 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.83 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .241 | 5.00 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 108 | +1.17 | 3.83 | 144 | 88 |
| Michael Gomez R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.33 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 1.8% | .283 | 3.80 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 110 | +0.47 | 3.33 | 286 | 88 |
| Kevin Coulter R 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.27 | 21.0% | 7.4% | 1.8% | .287 | 4.54 | 16.1% | 7.6% | 92 | +1.27 | 3.27 | 128 | 88 |
| Brendan Beck R 2028 · 3.19 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.19 | 22.5% | 6.7% | 2.1% | .289 | 4.15 | 20.6% | 13.7% | 152 | +0.96 | 3.19 | 183 | 87 |
| Corey Copping R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.13 | 21.4% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .265 | 4.57 | 19.6% | 6.7% | 179 | +0.44 | 3.39 | 214 | 87 |
| Kyle Zurak R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.42 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.54 | 3.19 | 181 | 87 |
| Austin Smith R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 87 |
| Grant Dyer R 2025 · 3.43 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.43 | 26.9% | 7.2% | 3.1% | .236 | 3.68 | 18.5% | 12.1% | 92 | +0.25 | 2.95 | 118 | 86 |
| Tyler Bray R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.06 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .356 | 3.22 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 114 | -0.84 | 2.82 | 152 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.6M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.4 | $2M | -$0.0M |
| Totals | $7M | $11M | +$4M | ||