Silvano Hechavarria
P
Dunedin Blue Jays
Age 23
RHP
6'4" / 227 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.9 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION43 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.40
FIP4.40
K%18.9%
BB%7.6%
K-BB%11.3%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 105 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays | 10 | 10 | 49 | 194 | 57 | 16 | 3 | 100% | 4.9 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 1.84 | 4.23 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays | 10 | 10 | 49 | 194 | 57 | 16 | 3 | 100% | 4.9 | 29.4% | 8.2% | 21.1% | 1.5% | 1.84 | 2.55 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 14 | 87 | 346 | 82 | 23 | 7 | 74% | 4.6 | 17.5% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 2.2% | 2.28 | 3.80 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 14 | 87 | 346 | 82 | 23 | 7 | 74% | 4.6 | 23.7% | 6.6% | 17.1% | 2.0% | 2.28 | 3.05 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 12 | 12 | 43 | 204 | 36 | 27 | 9 | 100% | 3.6 | 12.7% | 17.3% | -4.6% | 5.8% | 6.85 | 7.40 | -1.4 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 62 | 260 | 49 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.9% | 7.6% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18.9% | 7.6% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.40 | 4.40 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 105 | 464 | 85 | 47 | 16 | — | — | 18.4% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 5.41 | 5.64 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 54 | 20 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.2% | 7.6% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 4.28 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 56 | 20 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.9% | 7.5% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 4.26 | 4.22 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 57 | 20 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.2% | 7.6% | 13.7% | 2.8% | 4.22 | 4.20 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 57 | 20 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 21.3% | 7.7% | 13.6% | 2.9% | 4.23 | 4.24 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 5 | 5 | 27 | 114 | 23 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 5.4 | 20.2% | 7.6% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 37 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.9% | 7.5% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 4.26 | 4.22 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 46 | 16 | 6 | 100% | 6.4 | 21.2% | 7.6% | 13.7% | 2.8% | 4.22 | 4.20 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 49 | 18 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.3% | 7.7% | 13.6% | 2.9% | 4.23 | 4.24 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 29 | 29 | 174 | 733 | 154 | 56 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.0% | 7.6% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 3.85 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 177 | 65 | 24 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.0% | 7.6% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 3.85 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 41 | 36 | 179 | 744 | 125 | 82 | 25 | 88% | 4.4 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 3.27 | 4.90 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 40 | 200 | 831 | 140 | 92 | 28 | 88% | 4.4 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 3.27 | 4.90 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Silvano Hechavarria (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.40 | 18.9% | 7.6% | 2.8% | — | 4.23 | 20.8% | 13.2% | 191 | -0.17 | — | — | — |
| Marcelo Perez R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.02 | 18.0% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.99 | 14.1% | 6.7% | 217 | +0.97 | 4.02 | 285 | 89 |
| Pat Gallagher R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.56 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.43 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 195 | -0.13 | 2.97 | 258 | 89 |
| Zack Lee R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.41 | 19.2% | 7.0% | 1.9% | .293 | 5.18 | 14.7% | 5.9% | 130 | +1.77 | 3.41 | 213 | 88 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .329 | 3.55 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.68 | 2.49 | 298 | 87 |
| Nick Dean R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.00 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 2.5% | .275 | 3.50 | 21.7% | 14.6% | 111 | -0.50 | 2.73 | 202 | 87 |
| Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.92 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .315 | 4.36 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.44 | 3.76 | 537 | 85 |
| Nick Fraze R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.68 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 4.1% | .271 | 4.64 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 162 | -0.04 | 3.81 | 278 | 85 |
| Nick Payero R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.06 | 16.5% | 6.3% | 2.8% | .285 | 5.72 | 16.6% | 4.6% | 107 | +1.66 | 4.06 | 178 | 85 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.36 | 18.9% | 6.9% | 3.6% | .300 | 4.41 | 21.0% | 11.3% | 266 | +0.05 | 3.41 | 368 | 85 |
| Cameron Foster R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .329 | 4.33 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 132 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 213 | 85 |
| Blake Burkhalter R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.58 | 17.3% | 6.5% | 2.0% | .317 | 3.73 | 16.7% | 5.6% | 103 | +0.15 | 3.58 | 173 | 85 |
| Nick Sinacola R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.07 | 20.3% | 7.6% | 3.1% | .313 | 3.91 | 17.0% | 8.6% | 166 | -0.16 | 3.53 | 357 | 84 |
| Luis Santos R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.0% | 6.5% | 3.4% | .293 | 4.16 | 19.1% | 10.5% | 315 | -0.22 | 3.50 | 472 | 84 |
| Ricky Castro R 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 84 |
| Jared Karros R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.31 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 1.6% | .281 | 7.92 | 12.4% | 2.7% | 52 | +4.61 | 3.31 | 191 | 84 |
| Dylan DeLucia R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.65 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .241 | 5.26 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 176 | +1.61 | 3.65 | 211 | 84 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 84 |
| Colin Peluse R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.32 | 20.4% | 7.2% | 3.7% | .299 | 6.05 | 15.0% | 6.8% | 236 | +1.73 | 3.02 | 417 | 83 |
| Andrés Machado R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.02 | 16.7% | 6.7% | 2.7% | .350 | 4.87 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 266 | +0.85 | 3.64 | 530 | 83 |
| Cody Morris R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.00 | 21.6% | 8.1% | 3.1% | .362 | 2.86 | 31.1% | 20.9% | 96 | -1.14 | 2.26 | 256 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 63 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 1.10 | 4.29 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Jarlín García ('22) | 5 | 61 | 19.6% | 7.8% | 1.33 | 3.79 |