Silvano Hechavarria

Silvano Hechavarria P Dunedin Blue Jays

+0.9 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 227 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.6 · 2029

ERA4.35

FIP4.35

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.6%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%12.7%

IP87

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.6peak

2029

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	21	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	10	10	49	194	57	16	3	20.0%	10.3%	2.6%	1.84	4.14	+0.5
2025	22	A+	Vancouver Canadians	19	14	87	346	82	23	7	17.5%	7.9%	2.4%	2.28	3.91	+1.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	TOR	16	16	87	366	79	33	10	21.6%	8.9%	2.8%	4.35	4.35	+0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	TOR	19	19	105	443	98	38	13	22.2%	8.5%	2.8%	4.28	4.24	+1.3
2028	25	MLB	TOR	21	21	118	499	113	42	14	22.6%	8.3%	2.8%	4.22	4.18	+1.5
2029	26	MLB	TOR	23	23	125	529	120	44	15	22.7%	8.3%	2.8%	4.19	4.16	+1.6
2030	27	MLB	TOR	23	23	128	542	123	45	15	22.7%	8.3%	2.9%	4.18	4.18	+1.6
2031	28	MLB	TOR	23	23	128	542	123	45	16	22.7%	8.3%	2.9%	4.19	4.20	+1.6
2032	29	MLB	TOR	23	23	126	530	120	44	16	22.6%	8.4%	2.9%	4.22	4.25	+1.5
2033	30	MLB	TOR	22	22	122	514	115	44	15	22.4%	8.5%	3.0%	4.27	4.31	+1.4
2034	31	MLB	TOR	21	21	117	496	110	43	15	22.1%	8.6%	3.1%	4.34	4.38	+1.2
2035	32	MLB	TOR	20	20	113	476	104	42	15	21.9%	8.8%	3.1%	4.42	4.47	+1.1
2036	33	MLB	TOR	20	20	108	454	98	41	15	21.5%	8.9%	3.2%	4.51	4.57	+0.9
2037	34	MLB	TOR	19	19	102	432	91	39	14	21.2%	9.2%	3.3%	4.61	4.68	+0.7
2038	35	MLB	TOR	18	18	96	407	85	38	14	20.8%	9.4%	3.4%	4.72	4.80	+0.5
2039	36	MLB	TOR	16	16	90	380	77	37	14	20.4%	9.6%	3.6%	4.85	4.93	+0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			29	24	136	540	99	47	13	18.4%	8.7%	2.4%	2.12	3.99	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—			43	35	200	796	146	69	19	18.4%	8.7%	2.4%	2.12	3.99	+3.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Silvano Hechavarria (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.35	21.6%	8.9%	2.8%	—	4.19	22.5%	14.1%	348	-0.16	—	—	—
Colin Peluse R 2026 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP-	4.20	20.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.299	5.61	15.0%	6.8%	236	+1.41	3.05	395	93
Mason Adams R 2026 · 3.66 FIP	23	SP-	3.66	20.4%	7.3%	2.5%	.315	3.76	18.2%	12.0%	120	+0.10	3.66	229	91
Zack Lee R 2026 · 3.52 FIP	23	SP-	3.52	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	5.37	11.6%	2.7%	93	+1.85	3.52	175	91
Kaleb Fontenot R 2027 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	20.7%	8.6%	3.7%	.264	3.71	14.7%	5.2%	69	-0.78	3.71	155	90
Braxton Bragg R 2026 · 3.78 FIP	23	SP-	3.78	22.3%	6.4%	3.2%	.325	2.60	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.18	2.60	155	90
Tate Scioneaux R 2026 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP-	3.70	19.8%	7.9%	2.3%	.236	4.02	19.6%	13.5%	184	+0.32	3.11	321	90
Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.38 FIP	23	SP-	4.38	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	-0.01	3.50	368	89
James Hicks R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	19.6%	7.2%	3.4%	.338	4.35	17.5%	10.4%	61	+0.12	3.67	167	89
Jharel Cotton R 2026 · 3.27 FIP	23	SP-	3.27	23.7%	9.4%	1.8%	.289	4.73	22.1%	14.5%	315	+1.46	3.20	560	89
Ian Bedell R 2026 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	21.0%	10.1%	2.0%	.285	5.74	19.4%	9.6%	160	+2.02	3.72	256	89
Rorik Maltrud R 2027 · 3.89 FIP	24	SP-	3.89	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.44	18.2%	7.0%	78	+0.55	3.89	183	89
Jason Bahr R 2026 · 3.79 FIP	23	SP-	3.79	20.3%	8.2%	2.5%	.297	4.07	20.3%	7.1%	155	+0.28	3.32	315	89
Ben Gross R 2027 · 4.02 FIP	24	SP-	4.02	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.83	4.02	118	89
Logan Workman R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP-	4.34	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.98	20.4%	12.5%	362	-0.36	3.84	494	88
Zach Peek R 2026 · 3.60 FIP	23	SP-	3.60	22.8%	10.1%	2.1%	.339	3.55	17.5%	9.8%	45	-0.05	3.55	205	88
Tyler Stuart R 2026 · 3.55 FIP	23	SP-	3.55	19.5%	8.1%	1.9%	.280	3.89	20.4%	11.7%	142	+0.34	3.55	252	88
Reid Johnston R 2026 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP-	3.74	19.4%	6.1%	2.7%	.297	5.02	19.5%	5.6%	92	+1.28	3.74	204	88
Cody Morris R 2025 · 3.68 FIP	22	SP-	3.68	21.6%	8.1%	2.5%	.362	2.90	31.1%	20.9%	96	-0.78	2.23	256	88
Kenten Egbert R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.02	10.6%	4.0%	101	-0.21	4.02	199	88
Blake Beers R 2027 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP-	4.61	18.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.298	4.96	17.7%	8.5%	323	+0.35	4.41	416	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.6	$14M	+$14M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.6	$15M	+$14M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+1.5	$14M	+$13M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+1.4	$14M	+$11M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+1.2	$12M	+$8M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$6M	+1.1	$11M	+$6M
Totals		$16M		$81M	+$65M