Silvano Hechavarria

P Vancouver Canadians

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 227 lbs A+ peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	ROKTOR	10	10	49	1.84	2.55	29.4%	8.2%	—	K 20.0% · BB 10.3% · FIP 4.05
2025	22	MIX3 levels	19	14	87	2.28	3.05	23.7%	6.6%	—	K 17.5% · BB 7.9% · FIP 3.90
2026	23	MIX2 levels	21	20	82	6.78	5.31	17.8%	10.7%	—	K 13.5% · BB 12.5% · FIP 6.29
2027PROJ	24	MLBTOR	—	—	0	5.25	5.25	15.6%	10.0%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBTOR	5	5	27	5.05	4.98	17.6%	9.4%	0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBTOR	6	6	39	4.91	4.86	18.7%	9.3%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsRiley Thompson (age 23) · Cameron Foster (age 24) · Dylan Burns (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.25

FIP5.25

K%15.6%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%5.6%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	10	10	49	194	57	16	3	100%	4.9	20.0%	10.3%	9.7%	2.4%	1.84	4.05	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	10	10	49	194	57	16	3	100%	4.9	20.0%	10.3%	9.7%	2.4%	1.84	4.05	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	10	10	49	194	57	16	3	100%	4.9	29.4%	8.2%	21.1%	1.5%	1.84	2.55	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	14	87	346	82	23	7	74%	4.6	17.5%	7.9%	9.7%	2.3%	2.28	3.90	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	14	87	346	82	23	7	74%	4.6	17.5%	7.9%	9.7%	2.3%	2.28	3.90	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	14	87	346	82	23	7	74%	4.6	23.7%	6.6%	17.1%	2.0%	2.28	3.05	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	82	382	68	41	15	95%	3.9	13.5%	12.5%	1.0%	5.0%	6.78	6.29	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	82	382	68	41	15	95%	3.9	13.5%	12.5%	1.0%	5.0%	6.78	6.29	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	20	82	382	68	41	15	95%	3.9	17.8%	10.7%	7.1%	3.9%	6.78	5.31	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	TOR	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	15.6%	10.0%	5.6%	3.3%	5.25	5.25	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	63	266	47	25	9	100%	5.7	17.6%	9.4%	8.2%	3.3%	5.05	4.98	+0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	10	10	59	249	47	23	8	100%	5.9	18.7%	9.3%	9.4%	3.2%	4.91	4.86	+0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	TOR	9	9	56	236	45	22	8	100%	6.2	19.0%	9.4%	9.6%	3.3%	4.88	4.87	+0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	TOR	9	9	53	223	42	21	8	100%	5.9	18.9%	9.5%	9.4%	3.4%	4.91	4.94	+0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	TOR	8	8	49	206	38	20	7	100%	6.1	18.7%	9.8%	8.9%	3.5%	5.01	5.07	+0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	TOR	7	7	44	185	34	19	7	100%	6.3	18.4%	10.1%	8.3%	3.7%	5.15	5.25	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	5	5	27	114	20	11	4	100%	5.4	17.6%	9.4%	8.2%	3.3%	5.05	4.98	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	6	6	39	165	31	15	5	100%	6.5	18.7%	9.3%	9.4%	3.2%	4.91	4.86	+0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	TOR	7	7	43	182	34	17	6	100%	6.1	19.0%	9.4%	9.6%	3.3%	4.88	4.87	+0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	TOR	7	7	44	186	35	18	6	100%	6.3	18.9%	9.5%	9.4%	3.4%	4.91	4.94	+0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	TOR	7	7	43	182	34	18	6	100%	6.1	18.7%	9.8%	8.9%	3.5%	5.01	5.07	+0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	TOR	6	6	39	165	30	17	6	100%	6.5	18.4%	10.1%	8.3%	3.7%	5.15	5.25	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		39	39	236	996	185	96	34	100%	6.1	18.6%	9.6%	9.0%	3.4%	4.98	4.61	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	157	81	29	100%	6.0	18.6%	9.6%	9.0%	3.4%	4.98	4.61	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		50	44	218	922	151	95	32	88%	4.4	16.4%	10.3%	6.1%	3.5%	3.88	4.92	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	40	200	846	138	87	29	88%	4.4	16.4%	10.3%	6.1%	3.5%	3.88	4.92	+1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Vancouver Canadians · 49 IPFIP 4.53 → 5.52 (+0.99)K% 18.2% → 14.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.22%	—	×0.770	14.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×1.150	9.20%
HR / BF /BF	3.56%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.44%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.53 → 5.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ADunedin Blue Jays · 33 IPFIP 5.95 → 7.40 (+1.45)K% 17.2% → 12.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.20%	—	×0.740	12.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.65%	—	×1.180	17.29%
HR / BF /BF	4.46%	÷1.000	×1.300	5.80%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.95 → 7.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ADunedin Blue Jays · 47 IPFIP 2.62 → 3.40 (+0.77)K% 28.5% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.49%	—	×0.740	21.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.91%	—	×1.180	6.98%
HR / BF /BF	2.15%	÷1.284	×1.300	2.18%

Result: FIP 2.62 → 3.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Vancouver Canadians · 22 IPFIP 3.05 → 3.90 (+0.84)K% 20.7% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.65%	—	×0.770	15.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.70%	—	×1.150	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	1.09%	÷0.855	×1.250	1.59%

Result: FIP 3.05 → 3.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 17 IPFIP 4.22 → 5.29 (+1.07)K% 14.7% → 10.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.71%	—	×0.680	10.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.88%	—	×1.250	7.35%
HR / BF /BF	2.94%	÷1.077	×1.400	3.82%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 4.22 → 5.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL Blue Jays · 49 IPFIP 2.51 → 4.05 (+1.54)K% 29.4% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.38%	—	×0.680	19.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.25%	—	×1.250	10.31%
HR / BF /BF	1.55%	÷0.892	×1.400	2.43%

Result: FIP 2.51 → 4.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Silvano Hechavarria (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.3%	—	4.91	18.4%	9.0%	178	-0.34	—	—	—
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	88
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	87
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	86
Aaron Heilman R 2003 · 5.57 FIP	24	SP	5.57	16.2%	12.4%	4.1%	.311	3.13	22.0%	14.1%	223	-2.44	2.76	630	85
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	85
Charlie Morton R 2008 · 4.79 FIP	24	SP	4.79	13.9%	11.3%	2.6%	.285	3.97	14.7%	6.0%	348	-0.82	2.52	2,281	84
Jake Peppers R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	15.3%	12.2%	3.0%	.293	5.15	14.8%	-1.3%	89	+0.13	4.83	186	83
Derek Casey R 2019 · 5.30 FIP	23	SP	5.30	13.6%	8.5%	4.2%	.311	2.96	22.3%	13.2%	58	-2.34	2.96	180	83
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	83
Paxton Schultz R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP-	5.27	17.5%	12.2%	3.8%	.293	4.31	21.9%	11.8%	274	-0.96	3.83	543	82
Cade Kuehler R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	22	SP	4.22	15.5%	11.2%	1.8%	.266	7.37	12.2%	-2.2%	109	+3.15	4.22	159	82
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	82
Cameron Wagoner R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP	4.10	14.8%	9.6%	1.9%	.326	2.66	29.0%	22.4%	43	-1.44	2.66	143	82
Ricky Salinas R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	23	SP	4.77	15.8%	10.5%	3.0%	.297	5.42	17.7%	5.1%	146	+0.65	4.77	274	82
Darren Bowen R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	16.7%	9.1%	2.2%	.312	6.06	14.4%	2.5%	150	+1.98	3.82	278	82
Jarrod Cande R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SP	5.42	16.7%	11.0%	4.3%	.256	5.72	11.7%	-3.6%	23	+0.30	4.31	315	82
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	81
Blaine Knight R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP	4.58	14.1%	9.8%	2.6%	.263	4.63	16.2%	6.6%	159	+0.05	4.31	269	81
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.25	15.4%	5.9%	168	+0.82	4.43	239	81
Baron Stuart R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	24	SP	5.24	14.5%	12.2%	3.3%	.266	4.22	17.6%	4.1%	205	-1.02	3.57	306	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	56	18.0%	9.6%	1.30	5.03
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Lance Painter ('03)	2.2	56	16.7%	9.0%	1.32	5.24
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*