Silvano Hechavarria

Silvano Hechavarria P Vancouver Canadians

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 227 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.3 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION82 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 100

ERA4.39

FIP4.39

K%18.9%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%11.4%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 88 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$11M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL—60

CMD4555

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.2M
2031	Arb-2	$5M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$6M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$10M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	10	10	49	194	57	16	3	100%	4.9	20.0%	10.3%	9.7%	2.4%	1.84	4.05	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	10	10	49	194	57	16	3	100%	4.9	20.0%	10.3%	9.7%	2.4%	1.84	4.05	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	10	10	49	194	57	16	3	100%	4.9	29.4%	8.2%	21.1%	1.5%	1.84	2.55	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	14	87	346	82	23	7	74%	4.6	17.5%	7.9%	9.7%	2.3%	2.28	3.90	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	14	87	346	82	23	7	74%	4.6	17.5%	7.9%	9.7%	2.3%	2.28	3.90	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	14	87	346	82	23	7	74%	4.6	23.7%	6.6%	17.1%	2.0%	2.28	3.05	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	21	20	82	382	68	41	15	95%	3.9	13.5%	12.5%	1.0%	5.0%	6.78	6.29	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	21	20	82	382	68	41	15	95%	3.9	13.5%	12.5%	1.0%	5.0%	6.78	6.29	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	TOR	10	10	33	157	27	23	7	100%	3.3	17.2%	14.6%	2.5%	4.5%	7.29	5.95	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	TOR	11	10	49	225	41	18	8	91%	4.5	18.2%	8.0%	10.2%	3.6%	6.43	4.53	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	TOR	1	1	5	22	4	2	1	100%	5.2	18.9%	7.5%	11.4%	2.8%	4.39	4.39	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	88	404	72	43	16	—	—	17.9%	10.6%	7.3%	3.9%	6.64	6.18	-1.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TOR	15	15	83	349	70	26	10	100%	5.5	20.1%	7.3%	12.8%	2.8%	4.31	4.26	+0.6
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	14	14	84	353	73	26	10	100%	6.0	20.8%	7.2%	13.5%	2.8%	4.24	4.19	+0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	14	14	84	353	74	25	10	100%	6.0	21.1%	7.2%	13.8%	2.8%	4.20	4.17	+0.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	TOR	14	14	82	347	73	25	10	100%	5.9	21.1%	7.3%	13.8%	2.9%	4.21	4.21	+0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	TOR	13	13	80	337	77	22	10	100%	6.1	22.9%	6.7%	16.3%	3.0%	4.10	4.02	+0.8
2032	29	MLB MLE	TOR	13	13	76	322	73	22	10	100%	5.9	22.7%	6.9%	15.8%	3.1%	4.13	4.16	+0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	TOR	12	12	72	302	68	22	10	100%	6.0	22.3%	7.2%	15.2%	3.3%	4.25	4.33	+0.5
2034	31	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	67	282	62	21	10	100%	6.1	21.9%	7.5%	14.4%	3.6%	4.42	4.54	+0.3
2035	32	MLB MLE	TOR	10	10	62	261	56	21	10	100%	6.2	21.5%	7.9%	13.6%	3.8%	4.62	4.76	+0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	TOR	6	6	36	152	31	11	4	100%	6.0	20.1%	7.3%	12.8%	2.8%	4.31	4.26	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	56	236	49	17	7	100%	5.6	20.8%	7.2%	13.5%	2.8%	4.24	4.19	+0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	66	279	59	20	8	100%	6.0	21.1%	7.2%	13.8%	2.8%	4.20	4.17	+0.6
2030	27	MLB CTX	TOR	12	12	70	296	62	22	9	100%	5.8	21.1%	7.3%	13.8%	2.9%	4.21	4.21	+0.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	TOR	12	12	71	300	69	20	9	100%	5.9	22.9%	6.7%	16.3%	3.0%	4.10	4.02	+0.7
2032	29	MLB CTX	TOR	12	12	69	291	66	20	9	100%	5.8	22.7%	6.9%	15.8%	3.1%	4.13	4.16	+0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	66	279	62	20	9	100%	6.0	22.3%	7.2%	15.2%	3.3%	4.25	4.33	+0.4
2034	31	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	62	262	57	20	9	100%	6.2	21.9%	7.5%	14.4%	3.6%	4.42	4.54	+0.3
2035	32	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	58	245	53	19	9	100%	5.8	21.5%	7.9%	13.6%	3.8%	4.62	4.76	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		93	93	554	2339	508	169	73	100%	6.0	21.7%	7.2%	14.5%	3.1%	4.27	3.91	+6.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	183	61	26	100%	6.0	21.7%	7.2%	14.5%	3.1%	4.27	3.91	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		50	44	218	922	151	95	32	88%	4.4	16.4%	10.3%	6.1%	3.5%	3.88	4.92	+5.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	40	200	846	138	87	29	88%	4.4	16.4%	10.3%	6.1%	3.5%	3.88	4.92	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Silvano Hechavarria (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.39	18.9%	7.5%	2.8%	—	4.21	20.6%	13.4%	250	-0.18	—	—	—
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	89
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	89
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	88
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	86
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	86
Seth Shuman R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	18.9%	7.6%	4.4%	.297	4.48	15.4%	8.4%	109	-0.38	3.25	354	86
Wil Jensen R 2021 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP	4.37	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	+0.00	3.48	368	85
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	85
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	85
Steven Zobac R 2023 · 3.27 FIP	22	SP-	3.27	19.7%	7.5%	1.6%	.332	4.28	18.5%	11.0%	205	+1.01	3.25	296	85
Colin Peluse R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.299	5.51	14.8%	7.1%	236	+1.31	3.05	420	84
Cedric De Grandpre R 2023 · 3.38 FIP	21	SP	3.38	18.2%	7.0%	1.7%	.327	4.17	22.9%	8.9%	177	+0.79	3.38	264	84
Luis Santos R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	17.0%	6.5%	3.6%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.36	3.53	472	84
Nick Sinacola R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.3%	7.6%	3.4%	.313	3.97	17.0%	8.6%	166	-0.23	3.56	357	84
Andrés Machado R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	16.7%	6.7%	2.7%	.350	4.70	17.6%	8.8%	266	+0.68	3.63	530	84
Cody Morris R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	22	SP	3.73	21.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.362	2.85	31.1%	20.9%	96	-0.88	2.23	256	83
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	83
Connor Staine R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	16.5%	7.9%	2.1%	.343	5.08	17.3%	4.6%	320	+1.22	3.86	414	83
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.53	340	82
Chris Clarke R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SP	4.59	15.8%	6.7%	3.6%	.340	3.85	16.2%	9.8%	241	-0.74	3.57	291	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	75	21.3%	7.3%	1.19	4.27
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17