JR Ritchie — OGILVIE

JR Ritchie P Gwinnett Stripers

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.0 · 2029 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION140 act + 9 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.19

FIP4.19

K%21.2%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%10.9%

ROS IP9

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 149 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL5050

CMD4555

K†5055

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5094.5

Whiff%

p3623.3%

p4020.7%

xwOBA vs

p230.344

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.2M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$6M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$10M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$14M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$13M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	5	14	55	14	5	1	100%	2.9	25.5%	9.1%	16.4%	1.8%	1.88	3.10	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	5	14	55	14	5	1	100%	2.9	25.5%	9.1%	16.4%	1.8%	1.88	3.10	—
2023	20	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	4	4	13	53	25	3	0	100%	3.3	34.9%	6.7%	28.2%	0.0%	5.40	1.00	—
2023	20	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	4	4	13	53	25	3	0	100%	3.3	34.9%	6.7%	28.2%	0.0%	5.40	1.00	—
2023	20	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	4	4	13	53	25	3	0	100%	3.3	47.2%	5.7%	41.5%	0.0%	5.40	0.03	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	11	50	205	56	17	6	92%	4.1	22.8%	9.1%	13.7%	3.0%	2.90	3.96	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	11	50	205	56	17	6	92%	4.1	22.8%	9.1%	13.7%	3.0%	2.90	3.96	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	12	11	50	205	56	17	6	92%	4.1	27.3%	8.3%	19.0%	2.9%	2.90	3.44	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	140	564	140	54	12	100%	5.4	20.1%	9.7%	10.4%	2.7%	2.64	4.13	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	140	564	140	54	12	100%	5.4	20.1%	9.7%	10.4%	2.7%	2.64	4.13	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	26	140	564	140	54	12	100%	5.4	24.8%	9.6%	15.2%	2.1%	2.64	3.37	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			14	8	58	256	53	35	9	57%	4.1	20.7%	13.7%	7.0%	3.5%	4.50	5.10	-0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	30	24	140	596	142	72	18	80%	4.7	21.3%	11.5%	9.8%	3.2%	3.72	4.49	+0.7
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	30	24	140	596	142	72	18	80%	4.7	21.3%	11.5%	9.8%	3.2%	3.72	4.49	+0.7
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AAA RAW	ATL	16	16	82	340	89	37	9	100%	5.1	26.2%	10.9%	15.3%	2.6%	3.17	3.72	—
2026	23	MLB RAW	ATL	14	8	58	256	53	35	9	57%	4.1	20.7%	13.7%	7.0%	3.5%	4.50	5.01	-0.1
SO FAR	23	MLB RAW	ATL	14	8	58	256	53	35	9	57%	4.1	20.7%	13.7%	7.0%	3.5%	4.50	5.01	-0.1
ROS	23	MLB MLE	ATL	2	2	9	37	8	4	1	100%	4.4	21.2%	10.3%	10.9%	2.9%	4.19	4.19	+0.1
ROS	23	MLB CTX	ATL	2	2	9	38	8	4	1	100%	4.5	21.2%	10.3%	10.9%	2.9%	4.19	4.19	+0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	ATL	—	—	149	633	150	76	19	—	—	23.7%	12.0%	11.7%	3.0%	3.75	4.48	+0.7
FULL	23	MLB A+C	ATL	—	—	67	282	150	76	19	—	—	53.1%	26.9%	26.2%	6.8%	8.37	5.73	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	ATL	30	30	167	704	154	72	21	100%	5.6	21.8%	10.2%	11.6%	3.0%	4.66	4.59	+0.6
2028	25	MLB MLE	ATL	30	30	175	739	165	70	22	100%	5.8	22.3%	9.5%	12.8%	3.0%	4.53	4.45	+0.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	ATL	29	29	175	739	166	69	22	100%	6.0	22.5%	9.4%	13.1%	3.0%	4.46	4.42	+1.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	ATL	29	29	172	728	164	69	22	100%	5.9	22.5%	9.4%	13.1%	3.1%	4.46	4.46	+0.9
2031	28	MLB MLE	ATL	29	29	172	728	163	70	23	100%	5.9	22.4%	9.6%	12.8%	3.2%	4.51	4.54	+0.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	ATL	27	27	165	695	154	68	23	100%	6.1	22.1%	9.8%	12.3%	3.3%	4.61	4.67	+0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	ATL	26	26	155	653	142	66	23	100%	5.9	21.8%	10.1%	11.7%	3.5%	4.75	4.85	+0.1
2034	31	MLB MLE	ATL	24	24	144	609	130	64	23	100%	6.0	21.4%	10.4%	10.9%	3.7%	4.93	5.05	-0.2
2035	32	MLB MLE	ATL	22	22	134	564	118	61	22	100%	6.1	20.9%	10.8%	10.1%	4.0%	5.14	5.28	-0.6
2027	24	MLB CTX	ATL	28	28	158	667	146	68	20	100%	5.6	21.8%	10.2%	11.6%	3.0%	4.66	4.59	+0.6
2028	25	MLB CTX	ATL	28	28	166	701	156	67	21	100%	5.9	22.3%	9.5%	12.8%	3.0%	4.53	4.45	+0.9
2029	26	MLB CTX	ATL	28	28	166	701	158	66	21	100%	5.9	22.5%	9.4%	13.1%	3.0%	4.46	4.42	+0.9
2030	27	MLB CTX	ATL	27	27	164	692	156	65	21	100%	6.1	22.5%	9.4%	13.1%	3.1%	4.46	4.46	+0.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	ATL	27	27	164	692	155	66	22	100%	6.1	22.4%	9.6%	12.8%	3.2%	4.51	4.54	+0.7
2032	29	MLB CTX	ATL	26	26	156	659	146	65	22	100%	6.0	22.1%	9.8%	12.3%	3.3%	4.61	4.67	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	ATL	24	24	147	621	135	63	22	100%	6.1	21.8%	10.1%	11.7%	3.5%	4.75	4.85	+0.1
2034	31	MLB CTX	ATL	23	23	137	578	124	60	22	100%	6.0	21.4%	10.4%	10.9%	3.7%	4.93	5.05	-0.2
2035	32	MLB CTX	ATL	21	21	127	536	112	58	21	100%	6.0	20.9%	10.8%	10.1%	4.0%	5.14	5.28	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		249	243	1453	6144	1348	617	202	98%	5.8	21.9%	10.0%	11.9%	3.3%	4.64	4.33	+9.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	33	200	846	186	85	28	98%	5.8	21.9%	10.0%	11.9%	3.3%	4.64	4.33	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		77	70	358	1473	319	150	41	91%	4.6	21.7%	10.2%	11.5%	2.8%	3.17	4.10	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	39	200	824	178	84	23	91%	4.6	21.7%	10.2%	11.5%	2.8%	3.17	4.10	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
JR Ritchie (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.46	21.1%	9.6%	2.8%	—	4.49	22.2%	12.5%	517	+0.03	—	—	—
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	91
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	89
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	89
Paxton Schultz R 2021 · 4.77 FIP	23	SP	4.77	19.7%	11.6%	3.4%	.353	4.73	19.9%	8.5%	305	-0.04	3.90	538	88
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	88
Jamison Hill R 2022 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP	4.83	18.4%	11.6%	3.3%	.280	5.02	16.1%	3.0%	202	+0.19	4.72	326	87
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	87
Mitch Spence R 2021 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP	4.12	20.3%	9.5%	2.8%	.314	4.54	18.7%	11.6%	445	+0.42	4.12	747	86
Thomas Farr R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	23	SP	5.05	18.0%	9.8%	4.1%	.340	5.31	12.4%	2.9%	280	+0.26	5.05	423	86
Shelby Lackey R 2019 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.98	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.47	2.92	175	86
Bryce Jarvis R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP	4.99	21.2%	11.0%	4.2%	.276	5.10	17.6%	6.1%	296	+0.11	4.18	533	86
Tyler Skulina R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	18.3%	11.6%	2.3%	.242	5.34	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+1.06	4.28	222	86
Trent Baker R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	23	SP	4.05	19.3%	10.7%	2.2%	.315	4.07	17.9%	9.5%	296	+0.02	3.88	490	86
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	86
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	236	85
Zach McCambley R 2022 · 4.97 FIP	23	SP	4.97	19.4%	13.6%	3.3%	.277	3.29	24.5%	12.5%	123	-1.68	2.55	376	85
Nick Nastrini R 2023 · 4.03 FIP	23	SP	4.03	22.7%	11.5%	2.5%	.288	6.00	18.5%	2.7%	168	+1.97	4.03	412	85
Wyatt Marks R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	21.3%	10.7%	2.8%	.301	6.34	9.5%	-10.4%	18	+2.14	4.20	152	85
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	84
Ty Madden R 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	24.0%	11.2%	3.7%	.304	4.87	20.6%	11.1%	207	+0.35	4.52	448	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.8	155	21.9%	9.9%	1.26	4.64
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75