JR Ritchie
P
Gwinnett Stripers
+1.2
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'2" / 185 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 2.0 · 2030
ERA4.49
FIP4.49
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.9%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%11.6%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.0peak
2030
OFP—50
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 19 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 5 | 5 | 14 | 55 | 14 | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | 1.88 | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 4 | 4 | 13 | 53 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 34.9% | 6.7% | 0.0% | 5.40 | 1.00 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Rome Emperors | 12 | 11 | 50 | 205 | 56 | 17 | 6 | 22.8% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 2.90 | 3.94 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 22 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 26 | 26 | 140 | 564 | 140 | 54 | 12 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.7% | 2.64 | 4.18 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 4 | 4 | 21 | 84 | 20 | 10 | 1 | 21.0% | 12.5% | 1.3% | 1.27 | 3.63 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | ATL | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 111 | 52 | 14 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 4.49 | 4.49 | +1.1 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 141 | 591 | 131 | 62 | 15 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 2.6% | 4.00 | 4.36 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | ATL | 25 | 25 | 139 | 587 | 132 | 56 | 17 | 22.5% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 4.39 | 4.34 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 28 | 28 | 153 | 645 | 147 | 59 | 18 | 22.8% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.30 | 4.25 | +1.8 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 29 | 29 | 160 | 674 | 155 | 61 | 19 | 23.0% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.26 | 4.23 | +1.9 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 30 | 30 | 162 | 686 | 158 | 62 | 20 | 23.0% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 4.24 | +2.0 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 29 | 29 | 162 | 684 | 157 | 62 | 20 | 22.9% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 4.27 | +1.9 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 29 | 29 | 158 | 669 | 153 | 61 | 20 | 22.8% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.31 | +1.8 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 28 | 28 | 154 | 649 | 147 | 60 | 19 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.37 | +1.6 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 27 | 27 | 148 | 626 | 140 | 58 | 19 | 22.4% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.45 | +1.4 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 26 | 26 | 142 | 601 | 133 | 57 | 19 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 4.48 | 4.53 | +1.2 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 25 | 25 | 136 | 574 | 125 | 55 | 18 | 21.8% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.57 | 4.63 | +1.0 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | ATL | 23 | 23 | 129 | 546 | 117 | 54 | 18 | 21.4% | 9.9% | 3.3% | 4.67 | 4.74 | +0.8 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | ATL | 22 | 22 | 122 | 514 | 108 | 52 | 18 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 4.79 | 4.86 | +0.6 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | ATL | 21 | 21 | 114 | 481 | 99 | 50 | 17 | 20.6% | 10.3% | 3.6% | 4.91 | 5.00 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 51 | 50 | 239 | 961 | 213 | 96 | 24 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 2.5% | 2.68 | 3.84 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 42 | 200 | 805 | 178 | 80 | 20 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 2.5% | 2.68 | 3.84 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| JR Ritchie (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 2.8% | — | 4.27 | 22.8% | 13.6% | 451 | -0.22 | — | — | — |
| R.J. Gordon R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 129 | 95 |
| Roman Angelo R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.45 | 17.7% | 4.3% | 141 | +1.43 | 4.02 | 262 | 93 |
| Jason Bahr R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.79 | 20.3% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .297 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 155 | +0.28 | 3.32 | 315 | 92 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 91 |
| Riley Gowens R 2027 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.63 | 22.6% | 10.3% | 3.9% | .279 | 4.35 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 132 | -0.28 | 4.35 | 254 | 91 |
| Ian Bedell R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.72 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .285 | 5.74 | 19.4% | 9.6% | 160 | +2.02 | 3.72 | 256 | 90 |
| Austin Cates R 2025 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 110 | 90 |
| Trent Baker R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.17 | 19.3% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .315 | 4.02 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 296 | -0.15 | 3.77 | 420 | 90 |
| Austin Love R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.30 | 20.6% | 10.6% | 2.9% | .358 | 3.57 | 22.1% | 9.7% | 56 | -0.73 | 3.57 | 182 | 89 |
| Luke Russo R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.72 | 21.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .326 | 3.92 | 21.5% | 10.2% | 38 | +0.20 | 3.72 | 139 | 89 |
| Mitch Spence R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.12 | 20.3% | 9.5% | 2.8% | .314 | 4.52 | 19.2% | 11.6% | 445 | +0.40 | 4.07 | 663 | 89 |
| Kenten Egbert R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.6% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .257 | 4.02 | 10.6% | 4.0% | 101 | -0.21 | 4.02 | 199 | 89 |
| Ty Madden R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.53 | 24.0% | 11.2% | 3.7% | .304 | 5.21 | 23.0% | 13.2% | 134 | +0.68 | 4.53 | 375 | 89 |
| Nick Nastrini R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.05 | 22.9% | 11.8% | 2.5% | .288 | 6.14 | 19.4% | 1.6% | 168 | +2.09 | 4.05 | 412 | 88 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.65 | 21.8% | 10.4% | 1.9% | .261 | 4.41 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 63 | +0.76 | 3.65 | 156 | 88 |
| Tyler Stuart R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.55 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 1.9% | .280 | 3.89 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 142 | +0.34 | 3.55 | 252 | 88 |
| Brandon Bielak R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.36 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .267 | 4.04 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 200 | -0.32 | 3.21 | 670 | 88 |
| Colton Eastman R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.33 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .304 | 4.97 | 17.0% | 2.8% | 155 | +0.64 | 4.19 | 349 | 88 |
| Mason Adams R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.66 | 20.4% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .315 | 3.76 | 18.2% | 12.0% | 120 | +0.10 | 3.66 | 229 | 88 |
| Zach Peek R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.60 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .339 | 3.55 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 45 | -0.05 | 3.55 | 205 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2027
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2032
First FA Year 2027
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2027 | |||
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.5 | $12M | +$12M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.8 | $15M | +$14M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.9 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $4M | +2.0 | $18M | +$14M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $7M | +1.9 | $18M | +$11M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $9M | +1.8 | $17M | +$8M |
| Totals | $23M | $97M | +$74M | ||