JR Ritchie — OGILVIE

JR Ritchie P Atlanta Braves

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.4 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION94 act + 55 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101

ERA4.37

FIP4.37

K%21.0%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%9.6%

ROS IP55

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 149 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD4555

K†5055

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5094.5

Whiff%

p3523.2%

p3820.4%

xwOBA vs

p340.330

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.3M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$7M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$9M	+$8M
2029	Arb-1	$6M	+1.4	$9M	+$5M
2030	Arb-2	$10M	+1.4	$8M	+$2M
2031	Arb-3	$14M	+1.2	$7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$18M		$43M	+$23M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	19	MIX	2 levels	5	5	14	55	14	5	1	100%	2.9	25.5%	9.1%	16.4%	1.8%	1.88	3.10	—
2022	19	MIX	2 levels	5	5	14	55	14	5	1	100%	2.9	25.5%	9.1%	16.4%	1.8%	1.88	3.10	—
2023	20	A	Augusta GreenJackets	4	4	13	53	25	3	0	100%	3.3	34.9%	6.7%	28.2%	0.0%	5.40	1.00	—
2023	20	A	Augusta GreenJackets	4	4	13	53	25	3	0	100%	3.3	47.2%	5.7%	41.5%	0.0%	5.40	0.03	—
2024	21	MIX	3 levels	12	11	50	205	56	17	6	92%	4.1	22.8%	9.1%	13.7%	2.9%	2.90	3.94	—
2024	21	MIX	3 levels	12	11	50	205	56	17	6	92%	4.1	27.3%	8.3%	19.0%	2.9%	2.90	3.44	—
2025	22	MIX	3 levels	26	26	140	564	140	54	12	100%	5.4	20.6%	10.4%	10.2%	3.1%	2.64	4.37	—
2025	22	MIX	3 levels	26	26	140	564	140	54	12	100%	5.4	24.8%	9.6%	15.2%	2.1%	2.64	3.37	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	Atlanta Braves	20	16	94	400	86	51	11	80%	4.7	20.2%	13.0%	7.2%	2.9%	3.83	4.61	+0.7
ROS	23	MLB	ATL	9	9	55	234	49	27	7	100%	6.2	21.0%	11.4%	9.6%	2.9%	4.37	4.37	+0.1
ROS	23	MLB	ATL	9	9	55	232	49	26	7	100%	6.1	21.0%	11.4%	9.6%	2.9%	4.37	4.37	+0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB	ATL	—	—	149	634	135	78	18	—	—	21.3%	12.2%	9.1%	2.8%	4.03	4.52	+1.5
2026 FULL	23	MLB	ATL	—	—	105	442	135	78	18	—	—	30.5%	17.6%	13.0%	4.0%	5.75	4.96	+0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	ATL	24	24	133	563	123	58	17	100%	5.6	21.9%	10.4%	11.6%	3.0%	4.66	4.59	+1.3
2028	25	MLB	ATL	26	26	153	646	144	62	19	100%	5.9	22.4%	9.7%	12.7%	3.0%	4.52	4.45	+1.7
2029	26	MLB	ATL	28	28	165	697	157	66	21	100%	5.9	22.5%	9.5%	13.0%	3.0%	4.46	4.42	+1.9
2030	27	MLB	ATL	28	28	166	703	158	67	21	100%	5.9	22.5%	9.5%	13.0%	3.0%	4.46	4.45	+1.9
2031	28	MLB	ATL	28	28	166	703	157	68	22	100%	5.9	22.4%	9.7%	12.7%	3.1%	4.51	4.54	+1.7
2032	29	MLB	ATL	26	26	159	671	149	67	22	100%	6.1	22.1%	9.9%	12.2%	3.3%	4.61	4.67	+1.4
2033	30	MLB	ATL	25	25	150	631	138	65	22	100%	6.0	21.8%	10.2%	11.6%	3.5%	4.75	4.85	+1.0
2034	31	MLB	ATL	23	23	139	589	126	62	22	100%	6.1	21.4%	10.6%	10.8%	3.7%	4.93	5.05	+0.6
2035	32	MLB	ATL	21	21	129	544	114	60	22	100%	6.1	20.9%	11.0%	10.0%	4.0%	5.14	5.28	+0.2
2036	33	MLB	ATL	20	20	118	499	102	57	21	100%	5.9	20.4%	11.4%	9.0%	4.2%	5.37	5.53	-0.2
2027	24	MLB	ATL	23	23	127	536	118	56	16	100%	5.5	21.9%	10.4%	11.6%	3.0%	4.66	4.59	+1.2
2028	25	MLB	ATL	25	25	145	612	137	59	18	100%	5.8	22.4%	9.7%	12.7%	3.0%	4.52	4.45	+1.6
2029	26	MLB	ATL	26	26	157	663	149	63	20	100%	6.0	22.5%	9.5%	13.0%	3.0%	4.46	4.42	+1.8
2030	27	MLB	ATL	26	26	158	667	150	64	20	100%	6.1	22.5%	9.5%	13.0%	3.0%	4.46	4.45	+1.8
2031	28	MLB	ATL	26	26	158	667	149	65	21	100%	6.1	22.4%	9.7%	12.7%	3.1%	4.51	4.54	+1.6
2032	29	MLB	ATL	25	25	151	638	141	63	21	100%	6.0	22.1%	9.9%	12.2%	3.3%	4.61	4.67	+1.3
2033	30	MLB	ATL	24	24	142	600	131	61	21	100%	5.9	21.8%	10.2%	11.6%	3.5%	4.75	4.85	+0.9
2034	31	MLB	ATL	22	22	132	557	119	59	21	100%	6.0	21.4%	10.6%	10.8%	3.7%	4.93	5.05	+0.5
2035	32	MLB	ATL	20	20	122	515	108	57	20	100%	6.1	20.9%	11.0%	10.0%	4.0%	5.14	5.28	+0.2
2036	33	MLB	ATL	19	19	112	473	97	54	20	100%	5.9	20.4%	11.4%	9.0%	4.2%	5.37	5.53	-0.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			257	253	1510	6384	1393	656	212	98%	5.9	21.8%	10.3%	11.5%	3.3%	4.69	4.39	+17.9
/ 200 IP	—			34	33	200	845	184	87	28	98%	5.9	21.8%	10.3%	11.5%	3.3%	4.69	4.39	+2.4
Career	—			67	62	311	1277	276	138	36	93%	4.6	21.6%	10.8%	10.8%	2.8%	3.12	4.18	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—			43	40	200	820	177	89	23	93%	4.6	21.6%	10.8%	10.8%	2.8%	3.12	4.18	+2.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
JR Ritchie (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	21.7%	10.4%	2.9%	—	4.48	22.3%	12.5%	451	-0.10	—	—	—
Connor Staine R 2026 · 4.66 FIP	23	SP	4.66	20.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.266	5.22	16.1%	2.8%	185	+0.56	3.71	370	90
Luke Russo R 2026 · 3.67 FIP	23	SP	3.67	21.7%	11.1%	1.8%	.326	4.43	21.1%	10.5%	112	+0.76	3.67	213	89
Trent Baker R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	23	SP	4.24	19.3%	10.7%	2.6%	.315	3.90	18.1%	9.4%	296	-0.34	3.74	459	88
Jamison Hill R 2026 · 5.09 FIP	23	SP	5.09	18.4%	11.6%	3.8%	.280	4.70	16.1%	3.0%	202	-0.39	4.44	326	88
Dinelson Lamet R 2026 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.80	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.56	2.21	778	88
Roman Angelo R 2027 · 4.19 FIP	24	SP	4.19	22.6%	11.4%	2.8%	.291	5.46	18.2%	4.6%	163	+1.27	4.19	285	88
Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 4.98 FIP	23	SP	4.98	19.7%	11.6%	3.8%	.353	4.83	20.5%	8.2%	305	-0.15	4.00	512	88
Wyatt Marks R 2026 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	21.3%	10.7%	3.0%	.301	6.20	9.5%	-10.4%	18	+1.91	4.29	152	87
Cameron Foster R 2027 · 4.24 FIP	24	SP	4.24	18.9%	10.3%	2.6%	.329	4.33	21.3%	10.9%	132	+0.09	2.63	213	87
Austin Love R 2026 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP	4.19	20.6%	10.6%	2.7%	.358	3.51	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.68	3.51	220	87
Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.94 FIP	23	SP-	4.94	20.2%	12.2%	3.7%	.269	4.98	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.04	4.60	529	87
Thomas Farr R 2026 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	18.0%	9.8%	3.9%	.340	5.24	12.4%	2.9%	280	+0.31	4.93	408	86
R.J. Gordon R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	23	SP-	4.24	21.5%	9.5%	3.2%	.295	4.91	13.7%	2.0%	38	+0.67	4.24	167	86
Brody Hopkins R 2026 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	23.2%	13.4%	2.0%	.275	4.71	23.4%	0.9%	72	+0.76	3.49	303	86
Bryce Jarvis R 2026 · 4.78 FIP	23	SP	4.78	21.2%	11.0%	3.8%	.276	5.00	18.0%	6.0%	296	+0.22	4.22	513	86
Nick Nastrini R 2026 · 4.01 FIP	23	SP	4.01	22.9%	11.8%	2.5%	.288	6.17	19.4%	1.6%	168	+2.16	4.01	412	86
Mitch Spence R 2026 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP	4.12	20.3%	9.5%	2.8%	.314	4.50	19.2%	11.6%	445	+0.38	4.09	738	86
Shelby Lackey R 2025 · 4.18 FIP	22	SP	4.18	18.2%	10.0%	2.5%	.323	3.85	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.33	2.82	175	86
Ryan Bergert R 2026 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	23.0%	12.1%	1.7%	.286	4.18	19.5%	10.0%	219	+0.57	3.61	428	86
Zach McCambley R 2026 · 4.89 FIP	23	SP	4.89	19.4%	13.6%	3.1%	.277	3.30	25.0%	12.6%	123	-1.59	2.61	383	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	11	144	21.9%	10.1%	1.28	4.70
Kyle Gibson ('24)	10	164	19.6%	8.3%	1.14	4.46
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Julio Teheran ('23)	7	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Zach Davies ('23)	9	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Wade Miley ('23)	8	136	18.2%	8.5%	1.07	4.20