JR Ritchie

P Gwinnett Stripers

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.6 · 2028

Overview

AAASP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX3 levels	12	11	50	2.90	3.44	27.3%	8.3%	—	K 22.8% · BB 9.1% · FIP 3.96
2025	22	MIX3 levels	26	26	140	2.64	3.37	24.8%	9.6%	—	K 20.4% · BB 9.7% · FIP 4.11
2026	23	MIX2 levels	33	27	156	3.99	4.44	23.6%	11.9%	1.7	K 21.7% · BB 11.3% · FIP 4.59
2027PROJ	24	MLBATL	11	11	63	4.72	4.88	21.8%	10.9%	0.4
2028PROJ88% MLB	25	MLBATL	12	12	68	4.68	4.69	22.4%	10.0%	0.6
2029PROJ91% MLB	26	MLBATL	12	12	70	4.64	4.63	22.6%	9.8%	0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.413First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$2M2031Arb-2$2M2032Arb-3$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo52

K%41

xwOBA vs22

Form6.46 ERA (proj 4.72) · K 21.4% (proj 21.8%) · BB 10.0% (proj 10.9%) · last 60d · 15 IP through Oct 27

CompsBud Norris (age 24) · Cameron Foster (age 24) · Emerson Hancock (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127118vR 110

ERA4.72

FIP4.88

K%21.8%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%10.9%

Proj IP76

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 76 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$16M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5294.7

Whiff%

p2922.4%

p4120.9%

xwOBA vs

p220.345

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.413 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.9M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.8M
2031	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$2M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$10M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	5	14	55	14	5	1	100%	2.9	25.5%	9.1%	16.4%	1.8%	1.88	3.10	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	5	14	55	14	5	1	100%	2.9	25.5%	9.1%	16.4%	1.8%	1.88	3.10	—
2023	20	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	4	4	13	53	25	3	0	100%	3.3	34.9%	6.7%	28.2%	0.0%	5.40	1.00	—
2023	20	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	4	4	13	53	25	3	0	100%	3.3	47.2%	5.7%	41.5%	0.0%	5.40	0.03	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	11	50	205	56	17	6	92%	4.1	22.8%	9.1%	13.7%	3.0%	2.90	3.96	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	11	50	205	56	17	6	92%	4.1	22.8%	9.1%	13.7%	3.0%	2.90	3.96	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	12	11	50	205	56	17	6	92%	4.1	27.3%	8.3%	19.0%	2.9%	2.90	3.44	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	140	564	140	54	12	100%	5.4	20.4%	9.7%	10.7%	2.7%	2.64	4.11	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	140	564	140	54	12	100%	5.4	20.4%	9.7%	10.7%	2.7%	2.64	4.11	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	26	140	564	140	54	12	100%	5.4	24.8%	9.6%	15.2%	2.1%	2.64	3.37	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	27	156	666	157	79	22	82%	4.7	21.7%	11.3%	10.4%	3.4%	3.99	4.59	+1.5
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	27	156	666	157	79	22	82%	4.7	21.7%	11.3%	10.4%	3.4%	3.99	4.59	+1.5
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	27	156	666	157	79	22	82%	4.7	23.6%	11.9%	11.7%	3.3%	3.99	4.44	+1.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			17	11	73	326	68	42	13	65%	4.3	20.9%	12.9%	8.0%	4.0%	4.91	5.27	+0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	ATL	11	11	63	266	58	29	9	100%	5.7	21.8%	10.9%	10.9%	3.4%	4.72	4.88	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	ATL	13	13	77	326	73	33	11	100%	5.9	22.4%	10.0%	12.4%	3.3%	4.68	4.69	+0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	ATL	13	13	77	325	73	32	11	100%	5.9	22.6%	9.8%	12.8%	3.3%	4.64	4.63	+0.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	ATL	12	12	74	312	70	30	10	100%	6.1	22.6%	9.8%	12.8%	3.3%	4.64	4.65	+0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	ATL	12	12	70	295	66	29	10	100%	5.8	22.4%	9.9%	12.6%	3.4%	4.68	4.72	+0.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	ATL	10	10	59	250	55	25	9	100%	5.9	21.9%	10.1%	11.8%	3.6%	4.80	4.88	+0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	ATL	8	8	47	198	42	21	7	100%	5.9	21.2%	10.4%	10.8%	3.8%	4.97	5.09	+0.2
2034	31	MLB MLE	ATL	6	6	35	147	30	16	6	100%	5.8	20.4%	10.8%	9.7%	4.0%	5.18	5.32	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	ATL	12	12	68	287	64	29	10	100%	5.7	22.4%	10.0%	12.4%	3.3%	4.68	4.69	+0.6
2029	26	MLB CTX	ATL	12	12	70	296	67	29	10	100%	5.8	22.6%	9.8%	12.8%	3.3%	4.64	4.63	+0.6
2030	27	MLB CTX	ATL	11	11	68	287	65	28	10	100%	6.2	22.6%	9.8%	12.8%	3.3%	4.64	4.65	+0.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	ATL	11	11	65	274	62	27	9	100%	5.9	22.4%	9.9%	12.6%	3.4%	4.68	4.72	+0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	ATL	9	9	56	236	52	24	8	100%	6.2	21.9%	10.1%	11.8%	3.6%	4.80	4.88	+0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	ATL	8	8	45	190	40	20	7	100%	5.6	21.2%	10.4%	10.8%	3.8%	4.97	5.09	+0.2
2034	31	MLB CTX	ATL	6	6	33	139	28	15	6	100%	5.5	20.4%	10.8%	9.7%	4.0%	5.18	5.32	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		85	79	479	2040	447	214	73	93%	5.6	21.9%	10.5%	11.4%	3.6%	4.78	4.54	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	33	200	851	187	89	30	93%	5.6	21.9%	10.5%	11.4%	3.6%	4.78	4.54	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		80	73	373	1543	339	157	45	91%	4.7	21.9%	10.2%	11.8%	2.9%	3.31	4.15	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	39	200	827	182	84	24	91%	4.7	21.9%	10.2%	11.8%	2.9%	3.31	4.15	+1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 82 IPFIP 3.72 → 4.04 (+0.32)K% 26.2% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.18%	—	×0.860	22.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.88%	—	×0.900	9.79%
HR / BF /BF	2.65%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.91%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.72 → 4.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 60 IPFIP 3.52 → 3.84 (+0.32)K% 25.1% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.10%	—	×0.860	21.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×0.900	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.06%	÷0.961	×1.100	2.35%

Result: FIP 3.52 → 3.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAColumbus Clingstones · 39 IPFIP 3.64 → 4.55 (+0.91)K% 25.0% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.810	20.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.37%	—	×1.100	11.40%
HR / BF /BF	2.44%	÷0.934	×1.200	3.13%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 3.64 → 4.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Rome Emperors · 42 IPFIP 2.91 → 4.05 (+1.14)K% 24.2% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.20%	—	×0.770	18.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.37%	—	×1.150	7.32%
HR / BF /BF	1.91%	÷0.819	×1.250	2.92%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 64).

Result: FIP 2.91 → 4.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAugusta GreenJackets · 32 IPFIP 2.74 → 3.96 (+1.21)K% 30.8% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.77%	—	×0.740	22.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.180	9.08%
HR / BF /BF	2.31%	÷1.010	×1.300	2.97%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 2.74 → 3.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Rome Emperors · 10 IPFIP 4.71 → 6.49 (+1.78)K% 19.0% → 14.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.05%	—	×0.770	14.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.76%	—	×1.150	5.48%
HR / BF /BF	4.76%	÷0.831	×1.250	7.16%

Result: FIP 4.71 → 6.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Braves · 7 IPFIP 4.64 → 5.95 (+1.31)K% 24.2% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.24%	—	×0.680	16.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.15%	—	×1.250	18.94%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷1.266	×1.400	3.35%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 153).

Result: FIP 4.64 → 5.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAugusta GreenJackets · 13 IPFIP -0.17 → 1.00 (+1.16)K% 47.2% → 34.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	47.17%	—	×0.740	34.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.66%	—	×1.180	6.68%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.976	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP -0.17 → 1.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
JR Ritchie (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.4%	—	4.66	22.5%	12.7%	228	-0.22	—	—	—
Bud Norris R 2009 · 4.47 FIP	24	SP	4.47	21.7%	9.6%	3.6%	.309	4.01	22.5%	13.5%	508	-0.46	3.51	1,221	86
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	86
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.31	18.5%	11.5%	428	+0.01	3.24	669	83
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	83
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	83
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	83
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.25	15.4%	5.9%	168	+0.82	4.43	239	83
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	82
Trevor May R 2014 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP	4.40	20.7%	9.9%	3.3%	.369	3.18	25.0%	19.1%	157	-1.22	3.05	477	82
Ben Gross R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.80	4.05	118	82
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	82
Tim Redding R 2002 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	19.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.309	4.48	13.8%	5.4%	307	+0.08	3.97	822	81
Rafael Montero R 2014 · 5.04 FIP	23	SP-	5.04	21.6%	11.9%	4.1%	.298	4.32	19.3%	8.2%	296	-0.72	2.43	714	81
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	81
Blake Beers R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP	4.61	18.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.298	4.94	17.7%	8.7%	323	+0.33	4.32	416	81
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	81
Jesse Foppert R 2003 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.2%	13.0%	3.2%	.274	7.32	11.3%	-13.2%	10	+2.52	4.80	121	81
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	81
Cade Smith R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.35	18.2%	6.6%	157	+1.49	3.86	243	81
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	65	21.9%	10.6%	1.37	4.77
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
Dan Miceli ('06)	3.5	64	20.6%	10.1%	1.19	4.48
Luis Vizcaino ('09)	2.7	68	21.0%	10.1%	1.30	4.33
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*