Gus Varland
P
Washington Nationals
+0.5
WAR
Age 29
RHP
6'1" / 225 lbs
MLB
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA4.53
FIP4.25
xFIP3.78
SIERA3.17
K%22.8%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%14.2%
IP61
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL4040
CMD4545
K†6060
FB Velo
p6195.3
Whiff%
p4424.5%
K%
p5723.5%
xwOBA vs
p710.292
FB+0.9 (51%)
CH (3%)
SL-1.3 (46%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | A | Beloit Snappers | 6 | 6 | 20 | 75 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 29.2% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 0.89 | 2.40 | +0.6 |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Stockton Ports | 5 | 4 | 26 | 106 | 27 | 8 | 3 | 19.6% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 2.39 | 4.26 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 16 | 14 | 35 | 153 | 22 | 18 | 7 | 11.6% | 12.9% | 5.9% | 5.71 | 7.00 | -0.8 |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 41 | 7 | 71 | 324 | 85 | 36 | 11 | 21.3% | 12.2% | 4.1% | 6.11 | 5.10 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 51 | 1 | 59 | 264 | 62 | 28 | 7 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 4.55 | 4.16 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 58 | 1 | 64 | 285 | 68 | 20 | 8 | 22.1% | 7.2% | 2.9% | 5.80 | 3.76 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 8 | 1 | 6 | 31 | 11 | 6 | 1 | — | — | — | 5.68 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 7 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 7 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.05 | — | — |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | WSH | 54 | — | 54 | 229 | 55 | 22 | 7 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.67 | 4.30 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 61 | 258 | 62 | 25 | 8 | 24.2% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.60 | 3.83 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 59 | — | 59 | 249 | 59 | 24 | 8 | 23.5% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.42 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 57 | — | 57 | 240 | 55 | 23 | 8 | 22.9% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 52 | 23 | 7 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 4.57 | 4.62 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 48 | 22 | 7 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 4.67 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 50 | — | 50 | 209 | 44 | 21 | 7 | 21.0% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 4.79 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 40 | 21 | 7 | 20.3% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 4.93 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 36 | 20 | 7 | 19.5% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 5.09 | 5.19 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 192 | 34 | 288 | 1267 | 270 | 131 | 45 | 21.3% | 10.3% | 3.6% | 4.91 | 4.57 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 133 | 24 | 200 | 880 | 188 | 91 | 31 | 21.3% | 10.3% | 3.6% | 4.91 | 4.57 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Gus Varland (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.30 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 3.0% | — | 4.51 | 23.0% | 13.2% | 170 | +0.21 | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 89 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 88 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.03 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.65 | 2.38 | 160 | 85 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2028 · 3.38 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.38 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.98 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.60 | 3.38 | 212 | 84 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 84 |
| Pedro Báez R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.23 | 22.9% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .261 | 3.16 | 24.7% | 16.1% | 143 | -1.07 | 2.29 | 332 | 84 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2028 · 3.11 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.11 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.81 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.70 | 3.11 | 148 | 83 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.30 | 21.6% | 7.1% | 2.1% | .319 | 3.76 | 23.5% | 13.9% | 181 | +0.46 | 1.69 | 468 | 83 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.22 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.22 | 27.5% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .259 | 3.21 | 25.6% | 17.1% | 210 | -0.01 | 2.80 | 410 | 83 |
| Anthony Bass R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.40 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 2.1% | .356 | 3.44 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 141 | +0.04 | 2.83 | 432 | 82 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.25 | 19.2% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .275 | 3.71 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 152 | -0.54 | 3.46 | 295 | 82 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.56 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.33 | 2.83 | 228 | 82 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2028 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 81 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.75 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 3.12 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.63 | 2.31 | 187 | 81 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.77 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 1.9% | .281 | 3.74 | 21.6% | 12.6% | 179 | -0.03 | 2.26 | 602 | 81 |
| Cody Allen R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.10 | 27.7% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .281 | 7.47 | 25.0% | 7.8% | 23 | +3.37 | 1.58 | 295 | 81 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.92 | 21.7% | 7.6% | 3.1% | .272 | 3.62 | 22.3% | 11.3% | 62 | -0.30 | 3.62 | 224 | 81 |
| Blake Smith R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.63 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 124 | 80 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.41 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.4% | .283 | 4.31 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.90 | 3.41 | 104 | 80 |
| Joakim Soria R 2028 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.48 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .258 | 2.91 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.57 | 2.00 | 380 | 80 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.