Gus Varland
P
Washington Nationals
Age 29
RHP
6'1" / 225 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION36 act + 18 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115105vR 96
ERA4.31
FIP4.19
K%21.9%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%12.6%
ROS IP18
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5895.1
Whiff%
p2922.3%
K%
p3720.3%
xwOBA vs
p100.387
FB+0.9 (58%)
CH (2%)
SL-1.3 (40%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 6 | 20 | 75 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 3.4 | 29.2% | 5.0% | 24.2% | 2.3% | 0.89 | 2.54 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 6 | 20 | 75 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 3.4 | 37.3% | 5.3% | 32.0% | 1.3% | 0.89 | 1.58 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Stockton Ports | 5 | 4 | 26 | 106 | 27 | 8 | 3 | 80% | 5.3 | 19.6% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 2.39 | 4.13 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Stockton Ports | 5 | 4 | 26 | 106 | 27 | 8 | 3 | 80% | 5.3 | 25.5% | 7.5% | 17.9% | 2.8% | 2.39 | 3.44 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 16 | 14 | 35 | 153 | 22 | 18 | 7 | 88% | 2.2 | 11.6% | 12.9% | -1.3% | 6.3% | 5.71 | 7.22 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 16 | 14 | 35 | 153 | 22 | 18 | 7 | 88% | 2.2 | 14.4% | 11.8% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 5.71 | 6.01 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 41 | 7 | 71 | 324 | 85 | 36 | 11 | 17% | 1.7 | 21.3% | 12.2% | 9.0% | 4.1% | 6.11 | 5.12 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 41 | 7 | 71 | 324 | 85 | 36 | 11 | 17% | 1.7 | 26.2% | 11.1% | 15.1% | 3.4% | 6.11 | 4.25 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 51 | 1 | 59 | 264 | 62 | 28 | 7 | 2% | 1.2 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.21 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 51 | 1 | 59 | 264 | 62 | 28 | 7 | 2% | 1.2 | 23.5% | 10.6% | 12.9% | 2.7% | 4.55 | 3.96 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 58 | 1 | 64 | 285 | 68 | 20 | 8 | 2% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 7.2% | 14.9% | 2.9% | 5.80 | 3.75 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 58 | 1 | 64 | 285 | 68 | 20 | 8 | 2% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 7.0% | 16.8% | 2.8% | 5.80 | 3.54 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 1 | 6 | 31 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 12% | 0.8 | 35.5% | 19.4% | 16.1% | 3.2% | 5.68 | 4.33 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 1 | 6 | 31 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 12% | 0.8 | 35.5% | 19.4% | 16.1% | 3.2% | 5.68 | 4.52 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 36 | 0 | 36 | 167 | 36 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 4.1% | 6.31 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | WSH | 17 | 0 | 18 | 75 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 9.3% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 4.31 | 4.19 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | WSH | 17 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 9.3% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 4.31 | 4.19 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 54 | 242 | 52 | 23 | 9 | — | — | 21.7% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 3.9% | 5.64 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 50 | 209 | 52 | 23 | 9 | — | — | 25.1% | 11.0% | 14.1% | 4.5% | 6.10 | 4.85 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 66 | 0 | 69 | 292 | 63 | 28 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.5% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 3.4% | 4.71 | 4.75 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 61 | 0 | 64 | 272 | 57 | 27 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 3.6% | 4.84 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 57 | 0 | 60 | 252 | 51 | 26 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 3.8% | 5.02 | 5.17 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 63 | 0 | 66 | 279 | 60 | 27 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.5% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 3.4% | 4.71 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 54 | 25 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 3.6% | 4.84 | 4.95 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 49 | 25 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 3.8% | 5.02 | 5.17 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 266 | 0 | 280 | 1217 | 256 | 120 | 41 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 3.4% | 4.97 | 4.44 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 870 | 183 | 86 | 29 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 3.4% | 4.97 | 4.44 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 221 | 34 | 317 | 1405 | 297 | 144 | 52 | 15% | 1.4 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 3.7% | 5.08 | 4.63 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 139 | 21 | 200 | 886 | 187 | 91 | 33 | 15% | 1.4 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 3.7% | 5.08 | 4.63 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Gus Varland (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 22.9% | 9.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.95 | 20.9% | 11.0% | 193 | +0.60 | — | — | — |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.76 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 2.99 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.77 | 2.22 | 187 | 85 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 82 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2028 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 82 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.86 | 19.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% | .275 | 3.73 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 152 | -1.13 | 3.40 | 295 | 82 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.19 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.81 | 2.38 | 160 | 82 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 81 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.16 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 253 | 81 |
| Bo Schultz R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.31 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .218 | 3.45 | 15.1% | 8.9% | 77 | -0.86 | 2.73 | 141 | 81 |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 81 |
| Pedro Báez R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.26 | 22.9% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .261 | 3.30 | 24.7% | 16.1% | 143 | -0.96 | 2.39 | 332 | 81 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.80 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 1.9% | .281 | 3.81 | 21.6% | 12.6% | 179 | +0.01 | 2.40 | 617 | 80 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.18 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.40 | 2.76 | 228 | 80 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.56 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .283 | 4.38 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.82 | 3.56 | 104 | 80 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.35 | 21.6% | 7.1% | 2.1% | .319 | 3.85 | 23.5% | 13.9% | 181 | +0.50 | 1.74 | 468 | 80 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2025 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.49 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.55 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.06 | 2.51 | 137 | 80 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 80 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 79 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2028 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.92 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.46 | 3.46 | 160 | 79 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 79 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 61 | 21.3% | 9.7% | 1.35 | 4.77 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |