Gus Varland — OGILVIE

Gus Varland P Washington Nationals

Age 29 RHP 6'1" / 225 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2026 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION58 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 112

ERA4.12

FIP3.98

K%22.5%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%13.8%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5895.1

Whiff%

p2421.6%

p3419.9%

xwOBA vs

p100.400

FB+0.9 (58%)

CH (2%)

SL-1.3 (40%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	6	20	75	28	4	1	100%	3.4	29.2%	5.0%	24.2%	2.0%	0.89	2.39	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	6	20	75	28	4	1	100%	3.4	37.3%	5.3%	32.0%	1.3%	0.89	1.58	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	Stockton Ports	5	4	26	106	27	8	3	80%	5.3	19.6%	8.7%	10.9%	3.2%	2.39	4.29	—
2019	22	A+ RAW	Stockton Ports	5	4	26	106	27	8	3	80%	5.3	25.5%	7.5%	17.9%	2.8%	2.39	3.44	—
2021	24	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	16	14	35	153	22	18	7	88%	2.2	11.6%	12.9%	-1.3%	5.9%	5.71	6.98	—
2021	24	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	16	14	35	153	22	18	7	88%	2.2	14.4%	11.8%	2.6%	4.6%	5.71	6.01	—
2022	25	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	41	7	71	324	85	36	11	17%	1.7	21.3%	12.2%	9.0%	4.1%	6.11	5.11	—
2022	25	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	41	7	71	324	85	36	11	17%	1.7	26.2%	11.1%	15.1%	3.4%	6.11	4.25	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	51	1	59	264	62	28	7	2%	1.2	21.7%	10.2%	11.5%	2.9%	4.55	4.13	+0.3
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	51	1	59	264	62	28	7	2%	1.2	21.7%	10.2%	11.5%	2.9%	4.55	4.13	+0.3
2023	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	51	1	59	264	62	28	7	2%	1.2	23.5%	10.6%	12.9%	2.7%	4.55	3.96	+0.4
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	58	1	64	285	68	20	8	2%	1.1	21.4%	6.6%	14.9%	3.0%	5.80	3.75	+0.6
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	58	1	64	285	68	20	8	2%	1.1	21.4%	6.6%	14.9%	3.0%	5.80	3.75	+0.6
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	58	1	64	285	68	20	8	2%	1.1	23.9%	7.0%	16.8%	2.8%	5.80	3.54	+0.8
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	1	6	31	11	6	1	12%	0.8	35.5%	19.4%	16.1%	3.2%	5.68	4.33	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	1	6	31	11	6	1	12%	0.8	35.5%	19.4%	16.1%	3.2%	5.68	4.33	—
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	1	6	31	11	6	1	12%	0.8	35.5%	19.4%	16.1%	3.2%	5.68	4.52	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			75	0	78	369	77	36	12	0%	1.0	20.9%	9.8%	11.1%	3.3%	5.63	4.50	+0.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	59	0	58	259	64	24	10	0%	1.0	22.5%	8.9%	13.6%	4.0%	4.99	4.51	+0.0
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	59	0	58	259	64	24	10	0%	1.0	22.5%	8.9%	13.6%	4.0%	4.99	4.51	+0.0
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AAA RAW	WSH	26	0	26	108	34	10	3	0%	1.0	31.5%	9.3%	22.2%	2.8%	2.77	3.14	—
2026	29	MLB RAW	WSH	33	0	32	151	30	14	7	0%	1.0	19.9%	9.3%	10.6%	4.6%	6.82	5.14	-0.2
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	WSH	33	0	32	151	30	14	7	0%	1.0	19.9%	9.3%	10.6%	4.6%	6.82	5.14	-0.2
ROS	29	MLB MLE	WSH	5	0	5	23	5	2	1	0%	1.1	22.5%	8.7%	13.8%	3.1%	4.12	3.98	+0.0
ROS	29	MLB CTX	WSH	5	0	5	21	5	2	1	0%	1.0	22.5%	8.7%	13.8%	3.1%	4.12	3.98	+0.0
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	63	282	69	26	11	—	—	24.5%	9.2%	15.3%	3.8%	4.92	4.46	+0.1
FULL	29	MLB A+C	WSH	—	—	37	157	69	26	11	—	—	44.2%	16.6%	27.6%	6.8%	8.37	5.23	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	WSH	66	0	69	292	62	27	10	0%	1.0	21.1%	9.2%	11.9%	3.5%	4.78	4.80	-0.2
2028	31	MLB MLE	WSH	61	0	64	272	56	26	10	0%	1.1	20.5%	9.5%	11.0%	3.7%	4.90	5.00	-0.3
2027	30	MLB CTX	WSH	63	0	66	279	59	26	10	0%	1.0	21.1%	9.2%	11.9%	3.5%	4.78	4.80	-0.2
2028	31	MLB CTX	WSH	58	0	61	258	53	25	10	0%	1.1	20.5%	9.5%	11.0%	3.7%	4.90	5.00	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		201	0	211	928	194	88	32	0%	1.0	20.9%	9.5%	11.4%	3.5%	5.11	4.44	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	0	200	881	184	84	30	0%	1.0	20.9%	9.5%	11.4%	3.5%	5.11	4.44	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		244	34	339	1497	317	147	55	14%	1.4	21.2%	9.8%	11.3%	3.6%	4.94	4.55	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		144	20	200	883	187	87	32	14%	1.4	21.2%	9.8%	11.3%	3.6%	4.94	4.55	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gus Varland (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.32	22.5%	8.7%	3.0%	—	4.90	20.8%	11.5%	134	+0.58	—	—	—
Pedro Beato R 2016 · 4.20 FIP	29	SU	4.20	19.2%	8.5%	3.0%	.275	3.72	18.5%	11.1%	152	-0.48	3.47	295	85
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	84
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	83
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	83
Bo Schultz R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SU	4.30	18.3%	7.9%	3.2%	.218	3.49	15.1%	8.9%	77	-0.81	2.73	141	83
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	83
Daniel Hudson R 2016 · 3.39 FIP	29	SU	3.39	21.6%	7.1%	2.2%	.319	3.84	23.5%	13.9%	181	+0.45	1.68	468	82
Danny Farquhar R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	21.7%	7.6%	3.3%	.272	3.62	22.3%	11.3%	62	-0.40	3.62	224	81
Luis García R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	20.6%	10.9%	1.8%	.281	3.74	21.6%	12.6%	179	-0.01	2.33	617	81
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	81
Kevin Jepsen R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	31	SU	3.47	20.7%	9.1%	1.8%	.241	5.85	16.9%	7.2%	90	+2.38	3.47	160	81
Pedro Báez R 2017 · 4.08 FIP	29	SU	4.08	22.9%	9.6%	3.1%	.261	3.18	24.7%	16.1%	143	-0.90	2.29	332	80
Jhan Mariñez R 2018 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	21.2%	7.9%	3.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	253	80
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	80
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	80
Dalier Hinojosa R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	29	SU	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.30	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.89	3.41	104	80
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	80
David Hernandez R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	30	SU	4.40	22.9%	7.6%	4.1%	.287	3.17	24.9%	18.4%	192	-1.23	2.60	268	80
Drew Storen R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	29	SU	3.83	19.5%	7.3%	2.6%	.289	4.31	19.4%	8.4%	10	+0.48	2.36	172	80
Al Alburquerque R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	29	SU	3.54	21.4%	11.1%	1.5%	.330	3.23	21.3%	12.5%	114	-0.31	2.84	228	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	67	21.4%	9.1%	1.32	4.71
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43