Casey Kelly
P
Reno Aces
+0.0
WAR
Age 36
RHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
AAA
ERA5.25
FIP5.25
xFIP6.79
SIERA8.18
K%13.8%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%4.3%
IP73
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
K†3030
FB Velo
p1091.5
Whiff%
p3222.7%
K%
p1015.4%
xwOBA vs
p470.315
FB+1.1 (58%)
SL (21%)
SI (21%)
CU (4%)
CH (17%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 25 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 34 | 19 | 109 | 498 | 81 | 40 | 8 | 13.6% | 8.7% | 2.1% | 5.45 | 4.23 | +1.3 |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 25 | 13 | 96 | 404 | 54 | 32 | 7 | 12.0% | 8.3% | 1.7% | 4.05 | 4.06 | +1.3 |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 19 | 18 | 101 | 445 | 82 | 36 | 16 | 16.2% | 8.5% | 4.5% | 4.46 | 5.30 | +0.0 |
| 2018 | 28 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 31 | 27 | 160 | 694 | 127 | 41 | 22 | 16.4% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 4.51 | 4.41 | +1.6 |
| 2024 | 34 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 8 | 6 | 32 | 149 | 22 | 14 | 7 | 12.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | 6.75 | 5.91 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 35 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 26 | 20 | 117 | 537 | 61 | 49 | 14 | 10.1% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 5.55 | 5.16 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | MLB | SF | 13 | 13 | 73 | 309 | 39 | 29 | 10 | 12.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 5.37 | 5.35 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | SF | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 37 | 28 | 9 | 12.8% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 5.36 | 5.42 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 143 | 103 | 614 | 2727 | 375 | 224 | 85 | 13.7% | 8.2% | 3.1% | 4.91 | 4.70 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 34 | 200 | 888 | 122 | 73 | 28 | 13.7% | 8.2% | 3.1% | 4.91 | 4.70 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Casey Kelly (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.35 | 12.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | — | 5.42 | 12.8% | 3.0% | 68 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Alfredo Aceves R 2024 · 5.04 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.04 | 8.9% | 8.9% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.78 | 160 | 78 |
| Oscar Villarreal R 2025 · 5.35 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.35 | 8.7% | 8.6% | 3.5% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.53 | 135 | 70 |
| Sergio Mitre R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.85 | 9.7% | 4.8% | 3.6% | .282 | 4.54 | 11.8% | 5.3% | 103 | -0.31 | 4.54 | 156 | 69 |
| Mark Lowe R 2024 · 5.01 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.01 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 153 | 68 |
| Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.99 | 13.1% | 7.8% | 3.6% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.23 | 173 | 68 |
| Chien-Ming Wang R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.56 | 13.0% | 7.8% | 2.9% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 183 | 68 |
| Tim Lincecum R 2024 · 5.87 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.87 | 14.4% | 15.5% | 3.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 166 | 66 |
| Jason Motte R 2025 · 5.24 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.24 | 16.3% | 11.4% | 3.8% | .193 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 113 | 65 |
| David Buchanan R 2026 · 5.75 FIP | 36 | SU | 5.75 | 12.5% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 443 | 65 |
| Daniel Guerrero R 2024 · 5.54 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.54 | 14.7% | 11.1% | 4.2% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 269 | 64 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma R 2026 · 6.12 FIP | 36 | SU | 6.12 | 12.5% | 9.4% | 5.3% | .215 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 360 | 64 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.65 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.6% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 64 |
| Alfredo Simon R 2025 · 5.60 FIP | 35 | SW | 5.60 | 12.3% | 9.6% | 4.2% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 261 | 63 |
| Cesar Carrillo R 2025 · 6.34 FIP | 35 | SW | 6.34 | 11.0% | 9.2% | 5.5% | .392 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 325 | 60 |
| Yoshihisa Hirano R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.90 | 17.5% | 12.7% | 3.0% | .381 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 132 | 59 |
| Chad Gaudin R 2026 · 6.51 FIP | 36 | SU | 6.51 | 13.3% | 8.0% | 6.4% | .375 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.02 | 102 | 59 |
| Jerome Williams R 2024 · 5.79 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.79 | 11.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.66 | 195 | 58 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2025 · 5.83 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.83 | 19.2% | 9.4% | 5.8% | .385 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 150 | 57 |
| Edinson Volquez R 2026 · 6.15 FIP | 36 | SU | 6.15 | 13.3% | 16.0% | 3.9% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 498 | 55 |
| Mitch Talbot R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 35 | SW | 5.01 | 13.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 162 | 55 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.