Casey Kelly

P Reno Aces

Age 37 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2018	28	MIX2 levels	31	27	160	4.51	4.07	18.3%	5.9%	2.5	K 16.4% · BB 6.2% · FIP 4.41
2024	34	MIX2 levels	8	6	32	6.75	5.88	14.8%	9.4%	-0.2	K 12.1% · BB 9.1% · FIP 5.78
2025	35	MIX2 levels	26	20	117	5.55	4.87	11.4%	9.1%	0.7	K 9.9% · BB 8.1% · FIP 5.06
2026	36	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	37	MLBARI	1	1	6	5.07	5.02	14.9%	8.6%	0.0
2028PROJMLE	38	MLBARI	—	—	0	5.12	5.27	14.6%	9.4%	—
2029PROJMLE	39	MLBARI	—	—	0	5.38	5.61	14.1%	10.1%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2018

xwOBA vs47

FB Velo10

K%10

CompsIvan Maldonado (age 36) · Pablo Ortega (age 38) · Jonathan Castellanos (age 37)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 112

ERA5.07

FIP5.02

K%14.9%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%6.3%

Proj IP55

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.5

Whiff%

p3222.7%

p1015.4%

xwOBA vs

p470.315

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2012	22	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	6	6	29	136	26	9	5	100%	4.8	19.1%	6.6%	12.5%	3.6%	6.21	4.29	+0.4
2012	22	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	6	6	29	136	26	9	5	100%	4.8	19.1%	6.6%	12.5%	3.7%	6.21	4.48	+0.3
2015	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	19	109	498	81	40	8	56%	3.2	13.6%	8.7%	4.9%	2.1%	5.45	4.21	+1.5
2015	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	34	19	109	498	81	40	8	56%	3.2	16.3%	8.0%	8.2%	1.6%	5.45	3.67	+2.3
2016	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	13	96	404	54	32	7	52%	3.8	12.0%	8.3%	3.7%	1.7%	4.05	4.08	+1.5
2016	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	13	96	404	54	32	7	52%	3.8	13.4%	7.9%	5.4%	1.7%	4.05	3.93	+1.7
2017	27	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	19	18	101	445	82	36	16	95%	5.3	16.2%	8.5%	7.7%	4.4%	4.46	5.25	—
2017	27	AAA RAW	Sacramento River Cats	19	18	101	445	82	36	16	95%	5.3	18.4%	8.1%	10.3%	3.6%	4.46	4.60	—
2018	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	27	160	694	127	41	22	87%	5.2	16.4%	6.2%	10.2%	3.5%	4.51	4.41	+1.8
2018	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	27	160	694	127	41	22	87%	5.2	18.3%	5.9%	12.4%	3.2%	4.51	4.07	+2.5
2024	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	6	32	149	22	14	7	75%	4.0	12.1%	9.1%	3.0%	4.6%	6.75	5.78	-0.1
2024	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	6	32	149	22	14	7	75%	4.0	12.1%	9.1%	3.0%	4.6%	6.75	5.78	-0.1
2024	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	6	32	149	22	14	7	75%	4.0	14.8%	9.4%	5.4%	4.7%	6.75	5.88	-0.2
2025	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	20	117	537	61	49	14	77%	4.5	9.9%	8.1%	1.7%	3.2%	5.55	5.06	+0.5
2025	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	20	117	537	61	49	14	77%	4.5	9.9%	8.1%	1.7%	3.2%	5.55	5.06	+0.5
2025	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	20	117	537	61	49	14	77%	4.5	11.4%	9.1%	2.2%	2.6%	5.55	4.87	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			30	12	93	425	60	22	11	40%	3.1	14.1%	5.2%	8.9%	2.6%	5.34	4.06	+0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	37	MLB	ARI	1	1	6	25	4	2	1	100%	6.0	14.9%	8.6%	6.3%	3.1%	5.07	5.02	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	38	MLB MLE	ARI	6	6	33	140	20	13	5	100%	5.5	14.6%	9.4%	5.3%	3.5%	5.23	5.38	+0.0
2029	39	MLB MLE	ARI	4	4	24	100	14	10	4	100%	5.9	14.1%	10.1%	4.1%	4.0%	5.50	5.73	-0.1
2028	38	MLB CTX	ARI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	14.6%	9.4%	5.3%	3.4%	5.12	5.27	—
2029	39	MLB CTX	ARI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	14.1%	10.1%	4.1%	3.7%	5.38	5.61	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		30	12	93	425	60	22	11	40%	3.1	14.1%	5.2%	8.9%	2.6%	5.34	3.98	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		65	26	200	917	129	47	24	40%	3.1	14.1%	5.2%	8.9%	2.6%	5.34	3.98	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		149	109	643	2863	399	224	90	73%	4.3	13.9%	7.8%	6.1%	3.2%	4.97	4.65	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	34	200	891	124	70	28	73%	4.3	13.9%	7.8%	6.1%	3.2%	4.97	4.65	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAReno Aces · 115 IPFIP 4.72 → 5.06 (+0.33)K% 11.5% → 9.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	11.49%	—	×0.860	9.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.04%	—	×0.900	8.14%
HR / BF /BF	2.64%	÷0.904	×1.100	3.21%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 81).

Result: FIP 4.72 → 5.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALouisville Bats · 27 IPFIP 5.77 → 5.78 (+0.01)K% 14.1% → 12.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.06%	—	×0.860	12.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.16%	—	×0.900	9.14%
HR / BF /BF	4.69%	÷1.111	×1.100	4.64%

Result: FIP 5.77 → 5.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAASacramento River Cats · 136 IPFIP 4.07 → 4.48 (+0.41)K% 18.8% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.81%	—	×0.880	16.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.27%	—	×1.050	6.58%
HR / BF /BF	3.22%	÷0.998	×1.100	3.55%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.07 → 4.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAASacramento River Cats · 101 IPFIP 4.54 → 5.25 (+0.71)K% 18.4% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.43%	—	×0.880	16.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.09%	—	×1.050	8.49%
HR / BF /BF	3.60%	÷0.889	×1.100	4.45%

Result: FIP 4.54 → 5.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAGwinnett Braves · 74 IPFIP 4.05 → 4.24 (+0.19)K% 15.6% → 13.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.56%	—	×0.880	13.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.27%	—	×1.050	9.74%
HR / BF /BF	1.99%	÷1.132	×1.100	1.93%

Result: FIP 4.05 → 4.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AASan Antonio Missions · 82 IPFIP 3.93 → 4.67 (+0.74)K% 16.1% → 13.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.13%	—	×0.810	13.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.14%	—	×1.100	10.05%
HR / BF /BF	1.88%	÷0.885	×1.200	2.55%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 77).

Result: FIP 3.93 → 4.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 16 IPFIP 1.95 → 2.18 (+0.23)K% 20.0% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.880	17.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.29%	—	×1.050	4.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.919	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.95 → 2.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

	Profile at Match Age	Next 3 Yrs	Career
Casey Kelly (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.02	14.9%	8.6%	3.1%	—	5.53	14.4%	4.8%	57	+0.51	—	—	—
Ivan Maldonado R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	36	SP	5.41	6.4%	9.7%	3.0%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	172	62
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	62
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	60
Jose Oyervides R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	37	SP	5.66	16.3%	11.2%	4.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	407	57
Jarrett Grube R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	35	SP	4.41	15.8%	8.1%	3.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	57
Chris Michalak L 2006 · 5.71 FIP	35	SP-	5.71	6.2%	8.6%	3.7%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	186	39
Oscar Rivera L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	36	SP	5.80	9.8%	7.8%	4.6%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	237	33
Arturo Lopez L 2019 · 5.46 FIP	36	SP	5.46	12.2%	6.8%	4.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	4.34	445	32
Jorge Castillo L 2019 · 4.91 FIP	37	SP	4.91	19.6%	8.1%	4.5%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	408	25
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	23

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	34	14.4%	7.8%	1.17	5.27
Jeff Manship ('16)	1.1	32	16.5%	9.3%	1.05	4.82
Mike Lincoln ('10)	1.9	54	14.1%	8.9%	1.32	5.33
Steve Kealey ('68-'73, -1 WAR*)	1.1	54	18.5%*	7.2%*	1.32*	5.26*
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*
Dennis Powell ('85-'93, -2 WAR*)	1.7	49	17.6%*	10.1%*	1.18*	5.31*

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Casey Kelly (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.02	14.9%	8.6%	3.1%	—	5.53	14.4%	4.8%	57	+0.51	—	—	—
Ivan Maldonado R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	36	SP	5.41	6.4%	9.7%	3.0%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	172	62
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	62
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	60
Jose Oyervides R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	37	SP	5.66	16.3%	11.2%	4.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	407	57
Jarrett Grube R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	35	SP	4.41	15.8%	8.1%	3.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	57
Chris Michalak L 2006 · 5.71 FIP	35	SP-	5.71	6.2%	8.6%	3.7%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	186	39
Oscar Rivera L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	36	SP	5.80	9.8%	7.8%	4.6%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	237	33
Arturo Lopez L 2019 · 5.46 FIP	36	SP	5.46	12.2%	6.8%	4.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	4.34	445	32
Jorge Castillo L 2019 · 4.91 FIP	37	SP	4.91	19.6%	8.1%	4.5%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	408	25
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	23

Casey Kelly

Contract

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Path Comps

Career Comps