Casey Kelly
P
Reno Aces
Age 36
RHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 51 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140130vR 121
ERA5.48
FIP5.36
K%13.5%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%4.0%
ROS IP51
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1091.5
Whiff%
p3222.7%
K%
p1015.4%
xwOBA vs
p470.315
FB+1.1 (58%)
SL (21%)
SI (21%)
CU (4%)
CH (17%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 34 | 19 | 109 | 498 | 81 | 40 | 8 | 56% | 3.2 | 13.6% | 8.7% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 5.45 | 4.38 | +1.3 |
| 2015 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 34 | 19 | 109 | 498 | 81 | 40 | 8 | 56% | 3.2 | 16.3% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 1.6% | 5.45 | 3.67 | +2.2 |
| 2016 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 13 | 96 | 404 | 54 | 32 | 7 | 52% | 3.8 | 12.0% | 8.3% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 4.05 | 3.98 | +1.5 |
| 2016 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 13 | 96 | 404 | 54 | 32 | 7 | 52% | 3.8 | 13.4% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 1.7% | 4.05 | 3.93 | +1.5 |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 19 | 18 | 101 | 445 | 82 | 36 | 16 | 95% | 5.3 | 16.2% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 4.46 | 5.60 | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 19 | 18 | 101 | 445 | 82 | 36 | 16 | 95% | 5.3 | 18.4% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 3.6% | 4.46 | 4.60 | — |
| 2018 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 27 | 160 | 694 | 127 | 41 | 22 | 87% | 5.2 | 16.4% | 6.2% | 10.2% | 3.5% | 4.51 | 4.42 | +1.8 |
| 2018 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 27 | 160 | 694 | 127 | 41 | 22 | 87% | 5.2 | 18.3% | 5.9% | 12.4% | 3.2% | 4.51 | 4.07 | +2.5 |
| 2024 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 6 | 32 | 149 | 22 | 14 | 7 | 75% | 4.0 | 12.4% | 10.7% | 1.7% | 4.2% | 6.75 | 5.72 | -0.4 |
| 2024 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 6 | 32 | 149 | 22 | 14 | 7 | 75% | 4.0 | 14.8% | 9.4% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.75 | 5.88 | -0.5 |
| 2025 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 20 | 117 | 537 | 61 | 49 | 14 | 77% | 4.5 | 10.1% | 9.5% | 0.6% | 3.6% | 5.55 | 5.42 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 20 | 117 | 537 | 61 | 49 | 14 | 77% | 4.5 | 11.4% | 9.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 5.55 | 4.87 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 9 | 9 | 51 | 216 | 29 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 13.5% | 9.5% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 5.48 | 5.36 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | ARI | 7 | 7 | 45 | 189 | 25 | 19 | 7 | 100% | 6.4 | 13.4% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.54 | 5.65 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 13.4% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.59 | 5.70 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 24 | 6 | 64 | 291 | 34 | 13 | 6 | 25% | 2.7 | 11.8% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 2.1% | 4.95 | 3.83 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 75 | 19 | 200 | 907 | 106 | 41 | 19 | 25% | 2.7 | 11.8% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 2.1% | 4.95 | 3.83 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 143 | 103 | 614 | 2727 | 375 | 224 | 91 | 72% | 4.3 | 13.7% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 4.91 | 4.81 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 34 | 200 | 888 | 122 | 73 | 30 | 72% | 4.3 | 13.7% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 4.91 | 4.81 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Casey Kelly (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.36 | 13.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | — | 5.65 | 13.4% | 3.3% | 45 | +0.29 | — | — | — |
| Alfredo Aceves R 2024 · 4.97 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.97 | 8.9% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.71 | 160 | 73 |
| Alfredo Simon R 2025 · 5.63 FIP | 35 | SP- | 5.63 | 12.3% | 9.6% | 4.3% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.69 | 261 | 63 |
| Sergio Mitre R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.02 | 9.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | .282 | 4.48 | 11.8% | 5.3% | 103 | -0.54 | 4.48 | 156 | 61 |
| David Buchanan R 2026 · 5.96 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.96 | 12.5% | 9.4% | 5.0% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 443 | 60 |
| Francisco Rodriguez R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.11 | 10.7% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 273 | 59 |
| Jesse Estrada R 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.91 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 4.0% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 257 | 59 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma R 2026 · 6.39 FIP | 36 | SP | 6.39 | 12.5% | 9.4% | 5.8% | .215 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 360 | 58 |
| Cesar Carrillo R 2025 · 6.50 FIP | 35 | SP- | 6.50 | 11.0% | 9.2% | 5.8% | .392 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 325 | 58 |
| Marco Estrada R 2026 · 6.98 FIP | 36 | SP | 6.98 | 10.4% | 7.5% | 6.9% | .200 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 710 | 57 |
| Mitch Talbot R 2025 · 5.05 FIP | 35 | SP | 5.05 | 13.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 162 | 52 |
| Jerome Williams R 2024 · 5.94 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.94 | 11.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.79 | 195 | 52 |
| Jonathan Castellanos R 2025 · 5.00 FIP | 35 | SP | 5.00 | 8.4% | 9.2% | 2.6% | .314 | 5.02 | 11.0% | 2.0% | 67 | +0.02 | 3.56 | 394 | 52 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.23 | 13.4% | 6.4% | 4.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.91 | 241 | 51 |
| Hector Ambriz R 2025 · 6.28 FIP | 35 | SP | 6.28 | 10.4% | 7.5% | 5.7% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 155 | 51 |
| Aníbal Sánchez R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.91 | 17.6% | 6.5% | 4.5% | .337 | 5.13 | 17.0% | 5.7% | 82 | +0.22 | 3.49 | 869 | 50 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2026 · 5.68 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.68 | 6.4% | 9.7% | 3.5% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.91 | 172 | 50 |
| Ervin Santana R 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.46 | 12.4% | 8.4% | 4.3% | .309 | 4.38 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 65 | -1.08 | 3.66 | 720 | 47 |
| Brandon McCarthy R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.69 | 19.2% | 6.2% | 4.4% | .332 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 248 | 45 |
| Jose Oyervides R 2025 · 5.48 FIP | 35 | SP | 5.48 | 18.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | .254 | 5.90 | 16.3% | 5.1% | 115 | +0.42 | 2.98 | 407 | 44 |
| J.D. Martin R 2026 · 5.98 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.98 | 13.9% | 12.8% | 4.4% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.84 | 289 | 43 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 48 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 1.35 | 5.51 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Mike Wright Jr. ('19) | 5 | 52 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.53 | 6.00 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne ('18) | 4 | 63 | 13.5% | 8.1% | 0.96 | 5.54 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |