Casey Kelly — OGILVIE

Casey Kelly P Reno Aces

Age 36 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.30

FIP5.19

K%13.2%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%4.7%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.5

Whiff%

p3222.7%

p1015.4%

xwOBA vs

p470.315

FB+1.1 (58%)

SL (21%)

SI (21%)

CU (4%)

CH (17%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	19	109	498	81	40	8	56%	3.2	13.6%	8.7%	4.9%	2.1%	5.45	4.21	+0.9
2015	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	34	19	109	498	81	40	8	56%	3.2	16.3%	8.0%	8.2%	1.6%	5.45	3.67	+1.6
2016	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	13	96	404	54	32	7	52%	3.8	12.0%	8.3%	3.7%	1.7%	4.05	4.08	+0.9
2016	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	13	96	404	54	32	7	52%	3.8	13.4%	7.9%	5.4%	1.7%	4.05	3.93	+1.1
2017	27	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	19	18	101	445	82	36	16	95%	5.3	16.2%	8.5%	7.7%	4.4%	4.46	5.25	—
2017	27	AAA RAW	Sacramento River Cats	19	18	101	445	82	36	16	95%	5.3	18.4%	8.1%	10.3%	3.6%	4.46	4.60	—
2018	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	27	160	694	127	41	22	87%	5.2	16.4%	6.2%	10.2%	3.5%	4.51	4.41	+0.9
2018	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	27	160	694	127	41	22	87%	5.2	18.3%	5.9%	12.4%	3.2%	4.51	4.07	+1.6
2024	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	6	32	149	22	14	7	75%	4.0	11.7%	9.1%	2.5%	4.6%	6.75	5.82	-0.3
2024	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	6	32	149	22	14	7	75%	4.0	11.7%	9.1%	2.5%	4.6%	6.75	5.82	-0.3
2024	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	6	32	149	22	14	7	75%	4.0	14.8%	9.4%	5.4%	4.7%	6.75	5.88	-0.3
2025	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	20	117	537	61	49	14	77%	4.5	9.5%	8.1%	1.4%	3.2%	5.55	5.09	-0.2
2025	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	20	117	537	61	49	14	77%	4.5	9.5%	8.1%	1.4%	3.2%	5.55	5.09	-0.2
2025	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	20	117	537	61	49	14	77%	4.5	11.4%	9.1%	2.2%	2.6%	5.55	4.87	+0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			24	6	64	289	34	13	6	25%	2.7	11.8%	4.5%	7.3%	2.1%	4.95	3.87	+0.5
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	36	MLB	ARI	1	1	4	17	2	1	1	100%	4.0	13.2%	8.5%	4.7%	3.2%	5.30	5.19	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	37	MLB MLE	ARI	7	7	45	189	25	17	7	100%	6.4	13.1%	9.2%	3.9%	3.6%	5.38	5.50	-0.3
2027	37	MLB CTX	ARI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	13.1%	9.2%	3.9%	3.4%	5.27	5.39	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		24	6	64	291	34	13	6	25%	2.7	11.8%	4.5%	7.2%	2.1%	4.95	3.82	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		75	19	200	907	106	41	19	25%	2.7	11.8%	4.5%	7.2%	2.1%	4.95	3.82	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		143	103	614	2727	371	215	86	72%	4.3	13.6%	7.9%	5.7%	3.1%	4.91	4.67	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	34	200	888	121	70	28	72%	4.3	13.6%	7.9%	5.7%	3.1%	4.91	4.67	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Casey Kelly (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.19	13.2%	8.5%	3.2%	—	5.50	13.1%	3.9%	45	+0.31	—	—	—
Alfredo Aceves R 2017 · 5.10 FIP	34	SP	5.10	8.9%	8.9%	3.0%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	4.78	160	74
Juan Delgadillo R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	34	SP	4.47	10.9%	6.2%	2.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	143	66
Sergio Mitre R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	36	SP	4.76	9.7%	4.8%	3.4%	.282	4.54	11.8%	5.3%	103	-0.22	4.54	156	64
Cesar Carrillo R 2019 · 6.22 FIP	35	SP-	6.22	11.0%	9.2%	5.3%	.392	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	325	60
Francisco Rodriguez R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	36	SP	5.18	10.7%	9.3%	3.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	273	59
Alfredo Simon R 2016 · 5.55 FIP	35	SP-	5.55	12.3%	9.6%	4.1%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	261	59
Mitch Talbot R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	35	SP	5.01	13.2%	4.3%	4.5%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	162	55
Jerome Williams R 2016 · 5.81 FIP	34	SW	5.81	11.7%	6.1%	5.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.72	195	53
Jonathan Castellanos R 2017 · 4.91 FIP	35	SP	4.91	8.4%	9.2%	2.5%	.314	5.24	11.0%	2.0%	67	+0.33	3.40	394	52
Hector Ambriz R 2019 · 6.40 FIP	35	SP	6.40	10.4%	7.5%	5.9%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	155	51
Edgar Gonzalez R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	36	SP	4.58	12.3%	5.8%	3.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	450	50
Ivan Maldonado R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	36	SP	5.41	6.4%	9.7%	3.0%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	172	50
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2017 · 6.31 FIP	36	SP	6.31	12.5%	9.4%	5.6%	.215	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	360	47
Jose Oyervides R 2017 · 5.38 FIP	35	SP	5.38	18.0%	6.3%	5.5%	.254	5.66	16.3%	5.1%	115	+0.28	3.01	407	45
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	45
Brandon McCarthy R 2018 · 4.69 FIP	35	SP	4.69	19.2%	6.2%	4.4%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	248	45
Ryan Vogelsong R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	38	SP-	4.45	18.1%	9.4%	3.1%	.295	4.79	16.7%	6.3%	82	+0.34	4.45	217	45
Chris Young R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	36	SP-	4.69	16.6%	8.6%	3.5%	.209	6.33	21.1%	11.4%	119	+1.64	4.69	242	44
J.D. Martin R 2019 · 5.89 FIP	36	SP	5.89	13.9%	12.8%	4.3%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	4.85	289	43
Chris Smith R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	36	SP-	5.08	15.6%	7.5%	4.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	413	41

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.5	48	13.1%	8.8%	1.30	5.34
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Josh Fleming ('24)	1.3	51	14.6%	7.5%	1.17	4.77
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43