Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 6 | 29 | 122 | 26 | 10 | 2 | 60% | 2.9 | 16.7% | 10.3% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 5.02 | 5.11 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 6 | 29 | 122 | 26 | 10 | 2 | 60% | 2.9 | 21.3% | 8.2% | 13.1% | 1.6% | 5.02 | 3.24 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 19 | 15 | 81 | 353 | 72 | 23 | 6 | 79% | 4.3 | 15.1% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 4.98 | 4.36 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 19 | 15 | 81 | 353 | 72 | 23 | 6 | 79% | 4.3 | 20.4% | 6.5% | 13.9% | 1.7% | 4.98 | 3.14 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 23 | 12 | 93 | 389 | 73 | 26 | 6 | 52% | 4.0 | 14.4% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 1.9% | 4.06 | 3.90 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 23 | 12 | 93 | 389 | 73 | 26 | 6 | 52% | 4.0 | 18.8% | 6.7% | 12.1% | 1.5% | 4.06 | 3.21 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 15 | 14 | 71 | 293 | 86 | 17 | 11 | 93% | 4.7 | 24.9% | 6.2% | 18.7% | 4.2% | 4.46 | 4.08 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 65 | 276 | 37 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 13.3% | 8.6% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 4.95 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | MIA | 1 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 7.0 | 13.3% | 8.6% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 4.95 | 4.95 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 136 | 569 | 123 | 41 | 19 | — | — | 21.6% | 7.2% | 14.4% | 3.3% | 4.69 | 4.50 | +1.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 7 | 28 | 4 | 2 | 1 | — | — | 13.3% | 8.6% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 4.95 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 69 | 291 | 42 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 14.3% | 8.8% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 4.91 | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 67 | 282 | 42 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 14.9% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 4.92 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 41 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 15.1% | 9.2% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 4.99 | 5.06 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 5 | 5 | 29 | 122 | 18 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 5.8 | 14.3% | 8.8% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 4.91 | 4.93 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 26 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 14.9% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 4.92 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 30 | 18 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 15.1% | 9.2% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 4.99 | 5.06 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 21 | 21 | 124 | 525 | 77 | 47 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 14.7% | 9.0% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 4.95 | 4.61 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 124 | 76 | 24 | 100% | 5.9 | 14.7% | 9.0% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 4.95 | 4.61 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 67 | 47 | 274 | 1157 | 203 | 88 | 34 | 70% | 4.1 | 17.5% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.21 | +3.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 34 | 200 | 846 | 148 | 64 | 25 | 70% | 4.1 | 17.5% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.21 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brandon White (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.95 | 13.3% | 8.6% | 2.7% | — | 4.98 | 14.7% | 5.8% | 200 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Bryce Morrow R 2027 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.48 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .316 | 5.59 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.11 | 4.48 | 125 | 88 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2027 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.13 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 3.2% | .263 | 4.14 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 167 | -0.99 | 3.84 | 272 | 84 |
| Frank Batista R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.33 | 12.1% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 118 | 84 |
| Braydon Tucker R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.80 | 13.8% | 8.8% | 1.4% | .268 | 4.76 | 16.8% | 6.5% | 78 | +0.96 | 3.24 | 289 | 83 |
| Luke Irvine R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.17 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 104 | 83 |
| Justin Topa R 2027 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.05 | 15.1% | 7.9% | 2.2% | .374 | 2.66 | 19.2% | 12.6% | 40 | -1.39 | 2.66 | 259 | 81 |
| Mike Augliera R 2025 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 12.0% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.28 | 114 | 81 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.25 | 14.4% | 9.5% | 4.0% | .344 | 5.06 | 12.9% | 4.7% | 173 | -0.19 | 4.25 | 412 | 81 |
| Alex Sanabia R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.47 | 11.4% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .358 | 3.56 | 11.1% | 6.2% | 161 | -0.91 | 3.51 | 378 | 80 |
| Terance Marin R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.01 | 11.2% | 7.7% | 3.4% | .294 | 4.18 | 12.4% | 7.5% | 88 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 322 | 80 |
| Scott McGregor R 2028 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.19 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.1% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 107 | 80 |
| Jake Walters R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.17 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 2.4% | .316 | 5.97 | 15.5% | -0.2% | 72 | +1.80 | 3.46 | 261 | 80 |
| Braden Olthoff R 2023 · 4.57 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.57 | 12.5% | 8.0% | 2.8% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 108 | 80 |
| Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 80 |
| Mike McCarthy R 2027 · 4.79 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.79 | 9.4% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .280 | 4.77 | 6.2% | -3.5% | 37 | -0.02 | 4.77 | 153 | 80 |
| Fredy Quintero R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.23 | 11.3% | 8.9% | 1.8% | .375 | 4.59 | 15.1% | 7.3% | 113 | +0.36 | 4.23 | 241 | 80 |
| Forrest Snow R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.80 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 3.7% | .263 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 256 | -0.61 | 3.14 | 406 | 80 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 80 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2029 · 4.46 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.46 | 10.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .365 | 4.29 | 16.3% | 8.4% | 54 | -0.17 | 4.29 | 125 | 79 |
| Allen Webster R 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.99 | 14.0% | 9.1% | 3.5% | .356 | 5.50 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 58 | +0.51 | 4.43 | 177 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 67 | 14.4% | 8.9% | 1.12 | 4.94 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne ('18) | 4 | 63 | 13.5% | 8.1% | 0.96 | 5.54 |