Ethan Dorchies — OGILVIE

Ethan Dorchies P Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

Age 19 RHP 6'5" / 215 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 2.5 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 57 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.89

FIP4.89

K%20.3%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%7.8%

ROS IP57

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$38M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF4555

CTRL5555

CMD2045

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$7M	+$7M
2032	Arb-1	$5M	+1.4	$7M	+$5M
2033	Arb-2	$8M	+1.5	$7M	+$3M
2034	Arb-3	$12M	+1.4	$6M	+$1.0M
Totals		$28M		$36M	+$23M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	11	82	333	89	35	4	58%	4.3	19.2%	12.6%	6.6%	1.3%	2.74	3.78	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	11	82	333	89	35	4	58%	4.3	19.2%	12.6%	6.6%	1.3%	2.74	3.78	—
2025	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	11	82	333	89	35	4	58%	4.3	26.7%	10.5%	16.2%	1.2%	2.74	2.84	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	25	25	113	515	101	49	15	100%	4.5	15.1%	10.9%	4.2%	3.6%	5.26	5.21	—
YTD	19	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	25	25	113	515	101	49	15	100%	4.5	15.1%	10.9%	4.2%	3.6%	5.26	5.21	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	A+ RAW	MIL	25	25	113	515	101	49	15	100%	4.5	19.6%	9.5%	10.1%	2.9%	5.26	4.25	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	MIL	22	22	116	491	104	55	14	100%	5.3	21.2%	11.3%	9.9%	2.8%	4.71	4.63	+0.4
2028	21	MLB MLE	MIL	23	23	122	515	113	54	14	100%	5.3	21.9%	10.5%	11.4%	2.7%	4.55	4.45	+0.6
2029	22	MLB MLE	MIL	25	25	128	541	124	53	14	100%	5.1	22.9%	9.8%	13.1%	2.7%	4.37	4.25	+1.0
2030	23	MLB MLE	MIL	25	25	133	561	132	52	15	100%	5.3	23.6%	9.3%	14.3%	2.6%	4.22	4.11	+1.2
2031	24	MLB MLE	MIL	24	24	136	575	139	52	15	100%	5.7	24.2%	9.1%	15.1%	2.6%	4.10	4.02	+1.4
2032	25	MLB MLE	MIL	24	24	138	582	143	52	15	100%	5.7	24.5%	9.0%	15.6%	2.6%	4.02	3.96	+1.5
2033	26	MLB MLE	MIL	23	23	138	582	144	52	15	100%	6.0	24.7%	8.9%	15.8%	2.6%	3.97	3.94	+1.6
2034	27	MLB MLE	MIL	23	23	136	573	142	52	15	100%	5.9	24.7%	9.0%	15.7%	2.6%	3.98	3.98	+1.5
2035	28	MLB MLE	MIL	22	22	132	556	137	51	15	100%	6.0	24.6%	9.2%	15.4%	2.7%	4.03	4.06	+1.3
2036	29	MLB MLE	MIL	21	21	126	531	129	50	15	100%	6.0	24.4%	9.4%	15.0%	2.9%	4.13	4.20	+1.0
2037	30	MLB MLE	MIL	20	20	118	499	120	48	15	100%	5.9	24.0%	9.7%	14.3%	3.1%	4.28	4.37	+0.7
2038	31	MLB MLE	MIL	18	18	110	466	110	47	15	100%	6.1	23.6%	10.0%	13.6%	3.3%	4.46	4.58	+0.4
2039	32	MLB MLE	MIL	17	17	102	431	100	45	15	100%	6.0	23.2%	10.4%	12.7%	3.6%	4.67	4.80	+0.1
2027	20	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	57	241	51	27	7	100%	5.2	21.2%	11.3%	9.9%	2.9%	4.79	4.71	+0.2
2028	21	MLB CTX	MIL	17	17	89	376	82	40	11	100%	5.2	21.9%	10.5%	11.4%	2.9%	4.62	4.52	+0.5
2029	22	MLB CTX	MIL	21	21	108	456	104	45	13	100%	5.1	22.9%	9.8%	13.1%	2.8%	4.44	4.32	+0.8
2030	23	MLB CTX	MIL	22	22	119	502	119	47	14	100%	5.4	23.6%	9.3%	14.3%	2.8%	4.29	4.18	+1.1
2031	24	MLB CTX	MIL	22	22	126	532	129	48	15	100%	5.7	24.2%	9.1%	15.1%	2.7%	4.17	4.09	+1.3
2032	25	MLB CTX	MIL	22	22	129	545	134	49	15	100%	5.9	24.5%	9.0%	15.6%	2.7%	4.09	4.03	+1.4
2033	26	MLB CTX	MIL	22	22	131	553	137	49	15	100%	6.0	24.7%	8.9%	15.8%	2.7%	4.04	4.01	+1.5
2034	27	MLB CTX	MIL	22	22	129	545	135	49	15	100%	5.9	24.7%	9.0%	15.7%	2.8%	4.05	4.05	+1.4
2035	28	MLB CTX	MIL	21	21	125	528	130	48	15	100%	6.0	24.6%	9.2%	15.4%	2.9%	4.11	4.14	+1.2
2036	29	MLB CTX	MIL	20	20	120	507	123	48	15	100%	6.0	24.4%	9.4%	15.0%	3.0%	4.21	4.28	+1.0
2037	30	MLB CTX	MIL	19	19	112	473	114	46	15	100%	5.9	24.0%	9.7%	14.3%	3.2%	4.36	4.45	+0.7
2038	31	MLB CTX	MIL	18	18	105	443	105	45	15	100%	5.8	23.6%	10.0%	13.6%	3.5%	4.55	4.67	+0.4
2039	32	MLB CTX	MIL	16	16	97	410	95	43	15	100%	6.1	23.2%	10.4%	12.7%	3.7%	4.77	4.90	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		252	252	1447	6110	1456	583	180	100%	5.7	23.8%	9.5%	14.3%	3.0%	4.30	3.92	+17.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	201	81	25	100%	5.7	23.8%	9.5%	14.3%	3.0%	4.30	3.92	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		44	36	195	848	142	98	23	82%	4.4	16.7%	11.6%	5.1%	2.7%	4.20	4.65	+12.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	37	200	870	145	101	24	82%	4.4	16.7%	11.6%	5.1%	2.7%	4.20	4.65	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ethan Dorchies (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.89	20.3%	12.5%	2.8%	—	4.44	22.0%	11.5%	366	-0.45	—	—	—
Reggie Lawson R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	19	SP	4.73	21.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.313	4.68	18.5%	7.2%	145	-0.05	4.19	293	88
Patricio Aquino R 2022 · 4.24 FIP	19	SP	4.24	21.9%	13.2%	2.4%	.321	3.95	15.1%	5.8%	234	-0.29	3.54	313	87
Sem Robberse R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	19	SP	4.39	17.3%	11.4%	2.4%	.307	4.79	18.1%	9.2%	320	+0.40	4.36	423	86
Frank German R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SP	5.01	19.5%	12.4%	3.6%	.308	4.56	18.9%	9.4%	123	-0.45	3.10	218	85
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	84
Alec Kisena R 2015 · 4.01 FIP	19	SP	4.01	17.6%	11.8%	1.7%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	248	84
Christian Fernandez R 2018 · 4.50 FIP	18	SP-	4.50	17.0%	12.6%	2.3%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	324	84
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	83
Eric Silva R 2022 · 5.03 FIP	19	SP	5.03	20.1%	12.6%	3.7%	.306	4.89	17.3%	5.6%	163	-0.14	4.68	299	83
Miguel Mora R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	19	SP	4.21	17.9%	11.2%	2.2%	.221	4.89	16.6%	-3.6%	107	+0.68	2.95	151	83
Jeffrey Rosa R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP	4.34	19.8%	15.3%	1.8%	.257	4.92	13.1%	-4.6%	67	+0.58	4.17	123	82
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	82
Yohanse Morel R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	18	SP-	4.77	17.0%	10.0%	3.4%	.350	5.18	16.2%	2.7%	96	+0.41	3.33	263	82
Jordy Vargas R 2023 · 3.74 FIP	19	SP	3.74	19.3%	10.7%	1.7%	.305	5.38	19.5%	3.4%	140	+1.64	3.02	290	82
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	81
Blake Rivera R 2019 · 3.85 FIP	21	SP	3.85	20.3%	14.5%	1.1%	.298	3.89	19.8%	8.3%	61	+0.04	3.72	179	81
Eury Rosado R 2021 · 3.83 FIP	20	SP	3.83	17.2%	9.2%	1.9%	.231	6.00	19.2%	5.1%	55	+2.17	3.83	109	81
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	81
Homer Cruz R 2019 · 3.75 FIP	19	SP	3.75	16.4%	11.6%	1.0%	.309	4.57	18.4%	4.2%	64	+0.82	3.75	127	81
Tyler Schlaffer R 2021 · 5.17 FIP	20	SP	5.17	16.1%	10.7%	3.8%	.344	5.23	17.2%	4.5%	154	+0.06	3.79	399	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.5	121	23.6%	9.7%	1.09	4.27
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17