Ethan Dorchies — OGILVIE

Ethan Dorchies P Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

Age 19 RHP 6'5" / 215 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.5 · 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION72 act + 57 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 110

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

K%20.3%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%8.1%

ROS IP57

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 130 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF4555

CTRL5555

CMD2045

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2032	Arb-1	$3M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.9M
2033	Arb-2	$4M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M
2034	Arb-3	$6M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$10M		$12M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	18	MIX	2 levels	19	11	82	333	89	35	4	58%	4.3	19.2%	12.6%	6.6%	1.1%	2.74	3.67	—
2025	18	MIX	2 levels	19	11	82	333	89	35	4	58%	4.3	26.7%	10.5%	16.2%	1.2%	2.74	2.84	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	19	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	16	16	72	324	68	28	9	100%	4.5	16.2%	9.9%	6.2%	3.5%	4.98	4.90	-0.1
ROS	19	MLB	MIL	13	13	57	242	49	30	7	100%	4.4	20.3%	12.2%	8.1%	2.8%	4.83	4.83	-0.2
ROS	19	MLB	MIL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.3%	12.2%	8.1%	2.7%	4.80	4.80	—
2026 TOT	19	MLB	MIL	—	—	130	566	117	58	16	—	—	20.7%	10.2%	10.5%	2.8%	4.91	4.87	+0.8
2026 FULL	19	MLB	MIL	—	—	0	1	0	0	0	—	—	20.3%	12.2%	8.1%	2.7%	4.80	4.42	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	MIL	11	11	60	255	54	29	7	100%	5.5	21.3%	11.2%	10.1%	2.7%	4.67	4.60	-0.0
2028	21	MLB	MIL	12	12	63	267	59	28	7	100%	5.3	22.1%	10.5%	11.5%	2.7%	4.52	4.43	+0.1
2029	22	MLB	MIL	12	12	66	281	65	28	7	100%	5.5	23.1%	9.8%	13.2%	2.6%	4.34	4.23	+0.4
2030	23	MLB	MIL	13	13	69	291	69	27	8	100%	5.3	23.8%	9.4%	14.4%	2.6%	4.19	4.09	+0.5
2031	24	MLB	MIL	13	13	71	299	73	27	8	100%	5.4	24.4%	9.2%	15.2%	2.6%	4.07	4.00	+0.6
2032	25	MLB	MIL	12	12	72	302	75	27	8	100%	6.0	24.8%	9.0%	15.7%	2.6%	3.99	3.94	+0.7
2033	26	MLB	MIL	12	12	72	302	75	27	8	100%	6.0	25.0%	9.0%	16.0%	2.6%	3.95	3.92	+0.7
2034	27	MLB	MIL	12	12	70	298	74	27	8	100%	5.9	25.0%	9.1%	15.9%	2.6%	3.95	3.96	+0.7
2035	28	MLB	MIL	11	11	68	289	72	27	8	100%	6.2	24.8%	9.2%	15.6%	2.7%	4.00	4.04	+0.6
2036	29	MLB	MIL	11	11	65	276	68	26	8	100%	5.9	24.6%	9.4%	15.1%	2.9%	4.10	4.17	+0.4
2037	30	MLB	MIL	10	10	61	259	63	25	8	100%	6.1	24.2%	9.8%	14.5%	3.1%	4.25	4.35	+0.2
2038	31	MLB	MIL	10	10	57	242	58	24	8	100%	5.7	23.8%	10.1%	13.7%	3.3%	4.43	4.55	0.0
2039	32	MLB	MIL	9	9	53	224	52	23	8	100%	5.9	23.4%	10.5%	12.9%	3.5%	4.64	4.78	-0.1
2027	20	MLB	MIL	5	5	30	127	27	14	3	100%	6.0	21.3%	11.2%	10.1%	2.7%	4.64	4.57	-0.0
2028	21	MLB	MIL	8	8	46	194	43	20	5	100%	5.8	22.1%	10.5%	11.5%	2.6%	4.49	4.40	+0.1
2029	22	MLB	MIL	10	10	56	236	55	23	6	100%	5.6	23.1%	9.8%	13.2%	2.6%	4.31	4.20	+0.2
2030	23	MLB	MIL	11	11	62	262	62	25	7	100%	5.6	23.8%	9.4%	14.4%	2.6%	4.16	4.06	+0.4
2031	24	MLB	MIL	12	12	65	274	67	25	7	100%	5.4	24.4%	9.2%	15.2%	2.5%	4.04	3.97	+0.5
2032	25	MLB	MIL	11	11	67	283	70	26	7	100%	6.1	24.8%	9.0%	15.7%	2.5%	3.96	3.91	+0.6
2033	26	MLB	MIL	11	11	68	287	72	26	7	100%	6.2	25.0%	9.0%	16.0%	2.5%	3.92	3.89	+0.7
2034	27	MLB	MIL	11	11	67	283	71	26	7	100%	6.1	25.0%	9.1%	15.9%	2.6%	3.92	3.93	+0.6
2035	28	MLB	MIL	11	11	65	274	68	25	7	100%	5.9	24.8%	9.2%	15.6%	2.7%	3.97	4.01	+0.5
2036	29	MLB	MIL	10	10	62	262	64	25	7	100%	6.2	24.6%	9.4%	15.1%	2.8%	4.07	4.14	+0.3
2037	30	MLB	MIL	10	10	58	245	59	24	7	100%	5.8	24.2%	9.8%	14.5%	3.0%	4.22	4.32	+0.2
2038	31	MLB	MIL	9	9	54	228	54	23	7	100%	6.0	23.8%	10.1%	13.7%	3.2%	4.39	4.51	+0.0
2039	32	MLB	MIL	8	8	50	211	49	22	7	100%	6.2	23.4%	10.5%	12.9%	3.5%	4.60	4.74	-0.1
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			129	129	752	3174	763	305	87	100%	5.8	24.1%	9.6%	14.5%	2.7%	4.17	3.78	+14.2
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	203	81	23	100%	5.8	24.1%	9.6%	14.5%	2.7%	4.17	3.78	+3.8
Career	—			35	27	154	657	116	74	15	77%	4.4	17.7%	11.3%	6.4%	2.3%	3.79	4.28	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—			45	35	200	851	151	96	19	77%	4.4	17.7%	11.3%	6.4%	2.3%	3.79	4.28	+2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ethan Dorchies (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	20.3%	12.2%	2.8%	—	4.41	22.2%	11.7%	190	-0.42	—	—	—
Patricio Aquino R 2026 · 4.09 FIP	19	SP	4.09	21.9%	13.2%	2.1%	.321	3.92	15.1%	5.8%	234	-0.17	3.48	313	86
Christian Fernandez R 2025 · 4.50 FIP	18	SP-	4.50	17.0%	12.6%	2.3%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	324	86
Sem Robberse R 2026 · 4.44 FIP	19	SP	4.44	17.3%	11.4%	2.5%	.307	4.84	18.5%	9.1%	320	+0.40	4.44	423	86
Reggie Lawson R 2026 · 4.65 FIP	19	SP	4.65	21.0%	13.2%	3.0%	.313	4.94	18.5%	7.2%	145	+0.29	3.86	293	85
Jairo Garcia R 2027 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	85
Ramon Marquez R 2026 · 3.98 FIP	19	SP	3.98	21.1%	8.8%	2.8%	.331	3.00	30.4%	19.8%	49	-0.98	3.00	104	83
Yohanse Morel R 2025 · 4.62 FIP	18	SP-	4.62	17.0%	10.0%	3.1%	.350	5.11	16.2%	2.7%	96	+0.49	3.33	263	83
Frank German R 2028 · 5.10 FIP	21	SP	5.10	19.5%	12.4%	3.8%	.308	4.77	18.9%	9.4%	123	-0.33	3.16	218	83
John Klein R 2028 · 4.59 FIP	21	SP	4.59	17.4%	11.4%	2.8%	.287	4.12	20.0%	10.4%	264	-0.47	3.23	317	82
Dylan Jordan R 2026 · 3.96 FIP	19	SP	3.96	18.7%	11.6%	1.8%	.300	3.77	25.0%	10.6%	72	-0.19	3.77	148	82
Alec Kisena R 2026 · 4.01 FIP	19	SP	4.01	17.6%	11.8%	1.7%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.57	248	82
Bryce Cunningham R 2029 · 4.06 FIP	22	SP	4.06	19.3%	9.9%	2.4%	.268	5.93	17.4%	2.1%	47	+1.87	4.06	101	82
Adrian Heredia R 2026 · 3.78 FIP	19	SP	3.78	21.6%	12.8%	1.6%	.300	5.09	15.7%	2.9%	81	+1.31	3.39	125	82
Lucas Elissalt R 2028 · 3.85 FIP	21	SP-	3.85	20.1%	11.0%	1.9%	.253	4.98	21.4%	9.2%	60	+1.13	3.85	149	82
Eric Silva R 2026 · 4.91 FIP	19	SP	4.91	20.1%	12.6%	3.5%	.306	4.97	17.3%	5.6%	163	+0.06	4.59	281	82
Bishop Letson R 2026 · 4.67 FIP	19	SP	4.67	16.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.222	3.66	19.9%	8.8%	102	-1.01	2.38	165	82
José López R 2028 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.72	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.32	3.08	543	82
Josh Knoth R 2025 · 4.25 FIP	18	SP	4.25	19.7%	13.1%	2.1%	.326	3.51	19.8%	11.3%	33	-0.74	3.51	118	81
Carlos Jimenez R 2026 · 4.11 FIP	19	SP-	4.11	20.6%	12.9%	2.0%	.274	5.12	20.4%	-0.0%	141	+1.01	4.07	257	81
Logan Gragg R 2027 · 4.02 FIP	20	SP	4.02	17.4%	9.5%	2.2%	.343	5.04	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.02	4.02	412	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	14	65	23.7%	9.8%	1.08	4.26
Buck Farmer ('24)	10	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Joe Kelly ('24)	9	56	24.6%	10.3%	0.81	4.40
Daniel Hudson ('24)	9	52	25.5%	8.9%	1.13	3.75
Bryan Shaw ('23)	8	64	21.4%	9.4%	1.12	4.19
Brad Hand ('23)	9	64	27.2%	8.6%	0.89	3.53
Matt Barnes ('23)	9	49	29.6%	10.8%	1.03	4.14