Ethan Dorchies
P
Wisconsin Timber Rattlers
+0.7
WAR
Age 19
RHP
6'5" / 215 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 3.2 · 2033
ERA4.45
FIP4.45
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.2%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%11.9%
IP82
trajectory · 10 yrs
3.2peak
2033
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 18 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 19 | 11 | 82 | 333 | 89 | 35 | 4 | 19.2% | 12.6% | 1.3% | 2.74 | 3.80 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 2 | 2 | 6 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | 9.95 | — | — |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | MIL | 15 | 15 | 82 | 346 | 77 | 36 | 10 | 22.2% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 4.45 | 4.45 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 19 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 88 | 378 | 83 | 38 | 12 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 4.84 | 4.13 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | MIL | 16 | 16 | 86 | 364 | 82 | 35 | 10 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 4.31 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB | MIL | 16 | 16 | 90 | 382 | 87 | 35 | 10 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 4.25 | 4.19 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB | MIL | 21 | 21 | 117 | 494 | 117 | 42 | 13 | 23.8% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.11 | 4.02 | +1.7 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB | MIL | 26 | 26 | 141 | 597 | 146 | 49 | 16 | 24.4% | 8.2% | 2.6% | 3.98 | 3.90 | +2.2 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 29 | 29 | 161 | 679 | 170 | 54 | 18 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 3.88 | 3.81 | +2.7 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 32 | 32 | 175 | 738 | 187 | 58 | 19 | 25.4% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 3.80 | 3.75 | +3.1 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 33 | 33 | 182 | 768 | 196 | 60 | 20 | 25.6% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 3.76 | 3.73 | +3.2 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 33 | 33 | 180 | 762 | 195 | 59 | 20 | 25.6% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 3.75 | 3.74 | +3.2 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 32 | 32 | 178 | 750 | 192 | 59 | 20 | 25.5% | 7.9% | 2.6% | 3.76 | 3.77 | +3.1 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 32 | 32 | 174 | 733 | 186 | 58 | 20 | 25.4% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 3.79 | 3.81 | +2.9 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 31 | 31 | 168 | 711 | 179 | 57 | 20 | 25.2% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 3.84 | 3.87 | +2.7 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 30 | 30 | 163 | 687 | 171 | 56 | 19 | 25.0% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 3.90 | 3.95 | +2.5 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 28 | 28 | 156 | 659 | 163 | 55 | 19 | 24.7% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 3.98 | 4.04 | +2.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 21 | 13 | 88 | 365 | 70 | 44 | 6 | 19.2% | 12.0% | 1.8% | 3.26 | 3.97 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 29 | 200 | 826 | 158 | 100 | 14 | 19.2% | 12.0% | 1.8% | 3.26 | 3.97 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ethan Dorchies (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.45 | 22.2% | 10.3% | 2.8% | — | 4.16 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 293 | -0.29 | — | — | — |
| Owen Murphy R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.19 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .325 | 3.31 | 26.1% | 16.5% | 82 | -0.88 | 2.81 | 171 | 94 |
| Michael Forret R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.99 | 21.8% | 11.8% | 2.2% | .302 | 2.67 | 25.1% | 16.6% | 74 | -1.32 | 2.67 | 174 | 90 |
| Levi Kelly R 2027 · 3.41 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.41 | 22.9% | 11.3% | 1.5% | .285 | 6.22 | 19.4% | -7.9% | 25 | +2.81 | 3.41 | 125 | 87 |
| Jaden Hamm R 2028 · 3.82 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.82 | 23.5% | 8.9% | 2.9% | .273 | 4.78 | 17.1% | 7.3% | 83 | +0.96 | 3.82 | 182 | 87 |
| Luis Patiño R 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.32 | 24.4% | 11.0% | 1.6% | .277 | 4.56 | 22.0% | 12.1% | 178 | +1.24 | 2.52 | 504 | 87 |
| Logan Hofmann R 2028 · 4.51 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.51 | 22.1% | 11.3% | 3.4% | .239 | 6.75 | 9.7% | -12.0% | 47 | +2.24 | 4.51 | 129 | 87 |
| Eric Silva R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.01 | 20.1% | 12.6% | 3.7% | .306 | 4.92 | 17.3% | 5.6% | 163 | -0.09 | 4.71 | 249 | 86 |
| David Perez R 2029 · 3.99 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.99 | 21.1% | 9.3% | 2.7% | .292 | 5.20 | 15.6% | 1.9% | 67 | +1.21 | 3.99 | 151 | 85 |
| Brandon Bailey R 2029 · 3.52 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.52 | 24.6% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.44 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 215 | +0.92 | 3.52 | 306 | 84 |
| Chase Petty R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.13 | 17.8% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .284 | 4.25 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 300 | +0.12 | 2.31 | 414 | 84 |
| Carlos Rodriguez R 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.63 | 22.6% | 10.9% | 1.9% | .266 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 353 | +0.56 | 3.63 | 471 | 84 |
| Griffin Canning R 2029 · 3.70 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.70 | 21.8% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .312 | 4.13 | 23.9% | 15.3% | 225 | +0.43 | 3.65 | 705 | 83 |
| Brandon Young R 2029 · 4.11 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.11 | 24.5% | 12.3% | 2.8% | .297 | 3.57 | 22.4% | 14.1% | 150 | -0.54 | 3.13 | 319 | 83 |
| Trevor Martin R 2029 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.24 | 21.3% | 10.6% | 2.9% | .297 | 4.28 | 20.2% | 11.6% | 172 | +0.04 | 4.19 | 282 | 83 |
| Chase Hampton R 2028 · 4.05 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.05 | 26.1% | 9.5% | 3.5% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.05 | 107 | 83 |
| Mason Hickman R 2029 · 4.73 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.73 | 20.2% | 10.2% | 3.7% | .288 | 5.45 | 24.0% | 10.8% | 181 | +0.72 | 4.73 | 300 | 82 |
| CJ Van Eyk R 2029 · 4.83 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.83 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .302 | 4.62 | 15.2% | 5.3% | 127 | -0.21 | 2.74 | 347 | 82 |
| Cory Lewis R 2029 · 3.42 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.42 | 21.7% | 9.3% | 1.8% | .267 | 5.08 | 22.0% | 5.4% | 139 | +1.66 | 3.42 | 240 | 82 |
| Javi Rivera R 2029 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 22.3% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .259 | 3.72 | 18.6% | 9.0% | 93 | -0.13 | 2.77 | 186 | 82 |
| Cade Horton R 2028 · 3.24 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.24 | 26.0% | 8.8% | 2.2% | .273 | 3.64 | 22.0% | 13.7% | 181 | +0.40 | 3.24 | 270 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.7 | $15M | +$14M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +2.2 | $20M | +$19M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +2.7 | $25M | +$24M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +3.1 | $30M | +$23M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $11M | +3.2 | $31M | +$20M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $16M | +3.2 | $32M | +$17M |
| Totals | $36M | $153M | +$117M | ||