Liam Doyle — OGILVIE

Liam Doyle P Springfield Cardinals

Age 22 LHP 6'2" / 220 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.7 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION56 act + 44 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 95104vR 113

ERA4.12

FIP4.12

K%25.9%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%16.4%

ROS IP44

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF5055

CTRL4050

CMD3045

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Arb-1	$7M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$11M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$14M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	21	MIX	2 levels	2	2	4	15	6	2	1	100%	1.8	40.0%	13.3%	26.7%	6.7%	2.45	5.07	—
2025	21	MIX	2 levels	2	2	4	15	6	2	1	100%	1.8	40.0%	13.3%	26.7%	6.7%	2.45	5.01	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	AA	Springfield Cardinals	14	14	56	253	75	33	9	100%	4.0	24.0%	14.3%	9.7%	4.3%	5.46	5.23	-0.4
ROS	22	MLB	STL	9	9	44	186	48	18	6	100%	4.9	25.9%	9.5%	16.4%	3.0%	4.12	4.12	+0.2
ROS	22	MLB	STL	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	25.9%	9.5%	16.4%	3.0%	4.12	4.12	+0.0
2026 TOT	22	MLB	STL	—	—	100	439	123	51	15	—	—	28.1%	11.6%	16.5%	3.3%	4.87	4.74	+0.8
2026 FULL	22	MLB	STL	—	—	1	4	1	0	0	—	—	25.9%	9.5%	16.4%	3.0%	4.12	3.74	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	STL	25	25	138	582	153	52	17	100%	5.5	26.3%	9.0%	17.3%	2.9%	4.06	4.00	+2.3
2028	24	MLB	STL	30	30	167	706	187	61	20	100%	5.6	26.5%	8.7%	17.8%	2.9%	3.99	3.93	+2.9
2029	25	MLB	STL	30	30	175	739	197	63	21	100%	5.8	26.7%	8.5%	18.2%	2.9%	3.93	3.89	+3.1
2030	26	MLB	STL	29	29	175	739	198	62	21	100%	6.0	26.8%	8.4%	18.3%	2.9%	3.90	3.87	+3.1
2031	27	MLB	STL	29	29	172	728	195	62	21	100%	5.9	26.8%	8.5%	18.2%	2.9%	3.91	3.91	+3.0
2032	28	MLB	STL	28	28	167	706	188	61	21	100%	6.0	26.6%	8.7%	18.0%	3.0%	3.96	4.00	+2.7
2033	29	MLB	STL	27	27	160	674	178	60	22	100%	5.9	26.4%	8.9%	17.5%	3.2%	4.06	4.13	+2.4
2034	30	MLB	STL	25	25	150	634	165	58	21	100%	6.0	26.1%	9.2%	16.9%	3.4%	4.21	4.30	+1.9
2035	31	MLB	STL	23	23	140	591	152	56	21	100%	6.1	25.7%	9.5%	16.1%	3.6%	4.39	4.51	+1.5
2036	32	MLB	STL	22	22	130	547	138	54	21	100%	5.9	25.2%	9.9%	15.3%	3.9%	4.59	4.73	+1.0
2037	33	MLB	STL	20	20	119	502	124	52	21	100%	5.9	24.7%	10.4%	14.3%	4.1%	4.82	4.98	+0.6
2038	34	MLB	STL	18	18	108	456	110	50	20	100%	6.0	24.1%	10.9%	13.3%	4.4%	5.08	5.26	+0.2
2039	35	MLB	STL	16	16	97	410	96	47	20	100%	6.1	23.5%	11.4%	12.1%	4.8%	5.37	5.56	-0.3
2027	23	MLB	STL	13	13	69	291	77	26	8	100%	5.3	26.3%	9.0%	17.3%	2.9%	4.06	4.00	+0.6
2028	24	MLB	STL	21	21	118	498	132	43	14	100%	5.6	26.5%	8.7%	17.8%	2.9%	3.99	3.93	+2.0
2029	25	MLB	STL	24	24	142	600	160	51	17	100%	5.9	26.7%	8.5%	18.2%	2.9%	3.93	3.89	+2.5
2030	26	MLB	STL	26	26	153	646	173	54	19	100%	5.9	26.8%	8.4%	18.3%	2.9%	3.90	3.87	+2.7
2031	27	MLB	STL	26	26	156	659	176	56	19	100%	6.0	26.8%	8.5%	18.2%	2.9%	3.91	3.91	+2.7
2032	28	MLB	STL	26	26	154	650	173	56	20	100%	5.9	26.6%	8.7%	18.0%	3.0%	3.96	4.00	+2.5
2033	29	MLB	STL	25	25	149	629	166	56	20	100%	6.0	26.4%	8.9%	17.5%	3.2%	4.06	4.13	+2.2
2034	30	MLB	STL	24	24	141	595	155	55	20	100%	5.9	26.1%	9.2%	16.9%	3.4%	4.21	4.30	+1.8
2035	31	MLB	STL	22	22	133	562	144	54	20	100%	6.0	25.7%	9.5%	16.1%	3.6%	4.39	4.51	+1.4
2036	32	MLB	STL	20	20	123	519	131	52	20	100%	6.2	25.2%	9.9%	15.3%	3.9%	4.58	4.72	+1.0
2037	33	MLB	STL	19	19	113	477	118	50	20	100%	5.9	24.7%	10.4%	14.3%	4.1%	4.81	4.97	+0.6
2038	34	MLB	STL	16	16	98	414	100	45	18	100%	6.1	24.1%	10.9%	13.3%	4.4%	5.07	5.25	+0.1
2039	35	MLB	STL	14	14	83	350	82	40	17	100%	5.9	23.5%	11.4%	12.1%	4.8%	5.36	5.55	-0.5
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			276	276	1632	6893	1788	638	233	100%	5.9	25.9%	9.2%	16.7%	3.4%	4.26	3.94	+27.9
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	219	78	29	100%	5.9	25.9%	9.2%	16.7%	3.4%	4.26	3.94	+3.4
Career	—			16	16	60	268	67	38	12	100%	3.7	24.9%	14.3%	10.6%	4.4%	5.28	5.22	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—			54	54	200	898	224	128	40	100%	3.7	24.9%	14.3%	10.6%	4.4%	5.28	5.22	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Liam Doyle (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.12	25.9%	9.5%	3.0%	—	3.94	26.5%	17.8%	480	-0.18	—	—	—
Jake Bennett L 2026 · 3.54 FIP	22	SP	3.54	21.2%	7.2%	2.4%	.339	3.10	19.0%	12.8%	156	-0.44	2.79	219	82
Kash Mayfield L 2025 · 4.36 FIP	21	SP	4.36	23.3%	11.4%	3.3%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	109	82
Anthony Veneziano L 2027 · 4.24 FIP	23	SP	4.24	24.9%	10.8%	3.4%	.298	5.19	18.7%	8.0%	358	+0.95	4.24	501	81
Adam Seminaris L 2026 · 3.90 FIP	22	SP	3.90	22.7%	8.3%	3.0%	.357	3.75	18.2%	9.3%	230	-0.15	3.11	524	81
T.J. Sikkema L 2028 · 4.71 FIP	24	SP	4.71	21.9%	9.0%	4.2%	.298	4.64	16.9%	7.4%	231	-0.07	3.39	300	81
Jordan Wicks L 2026 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP	3.89	23.5%	7.9%	3.2%	.329	4.07	21.1%	12.8%	278	+0.18	2.93	431	81
Carson Dorsey L 2026 · 2.99 FIP	22	SP	2.99	24.5%	11.5%	0.9%	.313	5.47	18.3%	5.8%	65	+2.48	2.99	107	80
Brent Killam L 2027 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	29.1%	14.5%	3.4%	.284	7.12	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.77	4.35	121	80
Reid Detmers L 2026 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	29.9%	9.1%	4.0%	.335	4.27	25.4%	16.6%	443	+0.32	2.84	690	80
Hunter Barco L 2027 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP	3.51	23.4%	10.0%	2.0%	.275	3.79	22.7%	10.5%	150	+0.28	3.51	212	79
Sam Weatherly L 2026 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	24.0%	12.8%	2.1%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.28	3.86	189	79
Evan Lee L 2028 · 4.00 FIP	24	SP	4.00	24.2%	11.1%	2.8%	.333	4.48	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.48	3.84	129	78
Carson Whisenhunt L 2026 · 3.18 FIP	22	SP	3.18	27.4%	11.1%	1.8%	.270	4.32	21.0%	10.7%	313	+1.14	3.18	372	77
Hogan Harris L 2026 · 3.73 FIP	22	SP	3.73	20.5%	10.6%	1.9%	.235	3.64	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.09	3.14	473	77
Mason Molina L 2026 · 4.28 FIP	22	SP	4.28	22.7%	12.6%	2.7%	.276	3.56	23.3%	13.3%	69	-0.72	3.56	165	76
Connelly Early L 2026 · 3.30 FIP	22	SP	3.30	24.1%	9.8%	1.8%	.292	3.29	26.2%	17.0%	211	-0.01	2.52	315	75
Drew Parrish L 2027 · 3.53 FIP	23	SP-	3.53	24.1%	7.9%	2.7%	.261	6.22	16.8%	6.5%	354	+2.69	3.53	522	75
Noah Schultz L 2026 · 4.49 FIP	22	SP	4.49	24.1%	11.7%	3.5%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	2.61	264	75
Tyler Skaggs L 2029 · 3.21 FIP	25	SP	3.21	26.1%	9.2%	2.1%	.300	3.81	23.0%	15.2%	290	+0.60	3.21	372	75
Samy Natera Jr. L 2027 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.68	29.8%	14.8%	108	-1.49	1.94	191	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	14	139	26.0%	9.2%	1.30	4.25
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Rich Hill ('23)	9	104	25.0%	8.0%	1.12	3.65
Kyle Gibson ('24)	10	164	19.6%	8.3%	1.14	4.46
Chase Anderson ('24)	10	99	19.5%	8.1%	1.50	4.45
Vince Velasquez ('23)	9	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88