Liam Doyle

P Springfield Cardinals

Age 23 LHP 6'2" / 220 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.0 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP45OGV rank#101ETA2028MLB%12%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	21	MIX2 levels	2	2	4	2.45	5.01	40.0%	13.3%	—	K 40.0% · BB 13.3% · FIP 5.07
2026	22	AASTL	23	23	103	3.76	3.41	30.0%	12.5%	—	K 24.3% · BB 13.7% · FIP 4.31
2027PROJ	23	MLBSTL	2	2	11	4.61	4.61	25.9%	13.6%	0.1
2028PROJ55% MLB	24	MLBSTL	10	10	57	4.36	4.28	26.0%	12.0%	0.7
2029PROJ76% MLB	25	MLBSTL	14	14	84	4.23	4.15	26.1%	11.1%	1.1

Next 3 projected WAR 1.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$3M2032Arb-2$5M2033Arb-3$5M

Career WAR0.7 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 16, comp-based) · star 5% · didn't stick 70%

CompsAnthony Veneziano (age 23) · Sam Weatherly (age 22) · Samy Natera Jr. (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105113vR 121

ERA4.61

FIP4.61

K%25.9%

BB%13.6%

K-BB%12.3%

Proj IP95

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 95 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$40M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$9M	+$8M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+1.4	$8M	+$6M
2032	Arb-2	$5M	+1.2	$7M	+$4M
2033	Arb-3	$5M	+1.0	$5M	+$2M
Totals		$16M		$39M	+$29M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	2	4	15	6	2	1	100%	1.8	40.0%	13.3%	26.7%	6.7%	2.45	5.07	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	2	4	15	6	2	1	100%	1.8	40.0%	13.3%	26.7%	6.7%	2.45	5.07	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	2	2	4	15	6	2	1	100%	1.8	40.0%	13.3%	26.7%	6.7%	2.45	5.01	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	23	23	103	433	130	54	10	100%	4.5	24.3%	13.7%	10.6%	2.8%	3.76	4.31	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	23	23	103	433	130	54	10	100%	4.5	24.3%	13.7%	10.6%	2.8%	3.76	4.31	—
2026	22	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	23	23	103	433	130	54	10	100%	4.5	30.0%	12.5%	17.6%	2.3%	3.76	3.41	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	STL	2	2	11	46	12	6	1	100%	5.5	25.9%	13.6%	12.3%	2.9%	4.61	4.61	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	104	440	114	53	13	100%	5.5	26.0%	12.0%	14.0%	2.9%	4.47	4.39	+1.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	110	466	122	51	13	100%	5.8	26.1%	11.1%	15.1%	2.9%	4.34	4.26	+1.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	116	491	128	53	14	100%	6.1	26.1%	10.8%	15.3%	2.9%	4.28	4.24	+1.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	113	478	124	52	14	100%	6.0	26.0%	10.8%	15.2%	2.9%	4.28	4.27	+1.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	108	456	118	50	14	100%	6.0	25.9%	11.0%	14.9%	3.0%	4.33	4.36	+1.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	101	425	109	48	14	100%	5.9	25.6%	11.2%	14.4%	3.2%	4.43	4.49	+1.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	STL	15	15	91	386	98	44	13	100%	6.1	25.3%	11.5%	13.8%	3.4%	4.57	4.67	+0.8
2035	31	MLB MLE	STL	14	14	82	345	86	41	12	100%	5.8	24.9%	11.9%	13.0%	3.6%	4.75	4.87	+0.5
2036	32	MLB MLE	STL	12	12	72	303	74	37	12	100%	6.0	24.4%	12.3%	12.2%	3.9%	4.96	5.09	+0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	57	241	63	29	6	100%	5.7	26.0%	12.0%	14.0%	2.7%	4.36	4.28	+0.7
2029	25	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	84	355	93	39	10	100%	6.0	26.1%	11.1%	15.1%	2.7%	4.23	4.15	+1.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	STL	17	17	100	422	110	46	11	100%	5.9	26.1%	10.8%	15.3%	2.7%	4.17	4.13	+1.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	STL	17	17	102	431	112	47	12	100%	6.0	26.0%	10.8%	15.2%	2.7%	4.17	4.16	+1.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	99	418	108	46	12	100%	6.2	25.9%	11.0%	14.9%	2.8%	4.21	4.24	+1.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	94	397	102	44	12	100%	5.9	25.6%	11.2%	14.4%	3.0%	4.31	4.37	+1.0
2034	30	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	87	367	93	42	12	100%	6.2	25.3%	11.5%	13.8%	3.2%	4.44	4.54	+0.7
2035	31	MLB CTX	STL	13	13	78	329	82	39	11	100%	6.0	24.9%	11.9%	13.0%	3.4%	4.61	4.73	+0.5
2036	32	MLB CTX	STL	11	11	68	287	70	35	10	100%	6.2	24.4%	12.3%	12.2%	3.6%	4.81	4.94	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		129	129	768	3244	832	367	96	100%	6.0	25.6%	11.3%	14.3%	3.0%	4.34	3.99	+12.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	217	96	25	100%	6.0	25.6%	11.3%	14.3%	3.0%	4.34	3.99	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		25	25	107	448	111	61	13	100%	4.3	24.8%	13.7%	11.1%	2.9%	3.71	4.33	+9.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	47	200	840	209	115	24	100%	4.3	24.8%	13.7%	11.1%	2.9%	3.71	4.33	+2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AASpringfield Cardinals · 103 IPFIP 3.41 → 4.31 (+0.89)K% 30.0% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.02%	—	×0.810	24.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.47%	—	×1.100	13.72%
HR / BF /BF	2.31%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.77%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.41 → 4.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Liam Doyle (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.29	26.1%	14.8%	331	-0.32	—	—	—
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.94	18.6%	8.6%	358	+0.67	4.18	539	88
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	212	88
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.26	30.7%	17.2%	124	-1.88	1.94	208	86
Ken Waldichuk L 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	28.7%	12.5%	3.3%	.279	4.29	24.1%	14.1%	271	+0.23	3.51	432	86
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	85
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	82
Cade Povich L 2023 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP	4.32	25.7%	12.1%	3.4%	.298	4.32	22.0%	13.7%	386	-0.00	3.80	626	80
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	79
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	79
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.55	24.0%	17.0%	227	+0.19	2.36	414	79
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	79
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.85	18.0%	10.5%	367	-0.33	3.77	480	79
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	78
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.85	20.3%	7.9%	164	-0.23	3.83	268	78
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.8%	17.5%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	77
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	76
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	76
Doug Nikhazy L 2023 · 5.39 FIP	23	SP	5.39	21.9%	16.9%	3.6%	.304	4.71	20.2%	9.3%	258	-0.68	4.12	463	76
Dylan Carmouche L 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.0%	11.6%	2.5%	.332	5.21	16.7%	6.8%	116	+0.86	4.35	239	76
Austin Krob L 2023 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP	3.59	19.9%	10.7%	1.5%	.329	3.99	17.6%	7.2%	171	+0.40	3.59	280	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.0	99	25.7%	11.5%	1.21	4.47
Wayne Twitchell ('70-'79, 4 WAR*)	5.3	133	24.2%*	11.3%*	1.16*	4.56*
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Joe Decker ('69-'79, 6 WAR*)	3.5	101	21.4%*	11.8%*	1.04*	4.49*
Bill Butler ('69-'77, 2 WAR*)	3.0	99	22.0%*	11.3%*	1.30*	4.83*
Zack Godley ('21)	2.8	95	22.1%	9.6%	1.16	4.92
Tylor Megill ('25)	2.0	82	24.3%	9.1%	1.27	4.46