Liam Doyle — OGILVIE

Liam Doyle P Springfield Cardinals

Age 22 LHP 6'2" / 220 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.7 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102110vR 118

ERA4.49

FIP4.49

K%25.6%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%13.5%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$29M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF5050

CTRL4550

CMD4050

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$9M	+$8M
2030	Arb-1	$6M	+1.6	$9M	+$6M
2031	Arb-2	$9M	+1.5	$8M	+$3M
2032	Arb-3	$12M	+1.3	$7M	+$0.0M
Totals		$30M		$43M	+$25M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	2	4	15	6	2	1	100%	1.8	40.0%	13.3%	26.7%	6.7%	2.45	5.07	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	2	4	15	6	2	1	100%	1.8	40.0%	13.3%	26.7%	6.7%	2.45	5.07	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	2	2	4	15	6	2	1	100%	1.8	40.0%	13.3%	26.7%	6.7%	2.45	5.01	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	23	23	103	433	130	54	10	100%	4.5	24.3%	13.7%	10.6%	2.8%	3.76	4.31	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	23	23	103	433	130	54	10	100%	4.5	24.3%	13.7%	10.6%	2.8%	3.76	4.31	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	AA RAW	STL	23	23	103	433	130	54	10	100%	4.5	30.0%	12.5%	17.6%	2.3%	3.76	3.41	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	STL	26	26	139	586	152	63	17	100%	5.3	25.9%	10.8%	15.1%	2.9%	4.35	4.27	+1.0
2028	24	MLB MLE	STL	30	30	168	710	186	71	21	100%	5.6	26.2%	10.0%	16.2%	2.9%	4.22	4.14	+1.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	STL	30	30	175	739	195	71	21	100%	5.8	26.4%	9.6%	16.8%	2.9%	4.13	4.06	+1.7
2030	26	MLB MLE	STL	29	29	175	739	195	70	21	100%	6.0	26.5%	9.5%	17.0%	2.9%	4.08	4.04	+1.8
2031	27	MLB MLE	STL	29	29	172	728	192	70	22	100%	5.9	26.4%	9.6%	16.9%	3.0%	4.08	4.08	+1.7
2032	28	MLB MLE	STL	28	28	167	706	186	69	22	100%	6.0	26.3%	9.7%	16.6%	3.1%	4.13	4.17	+1.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	STL	27	27	160	674	176	67	22	100%	5.9	26.1%	10.0%	16.1%	3.2%	4.23	4.30	+1.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	STL	25	25	150	634	163	65	22	100%	6.0	25.7%	10.2%	15.5%	3.4%	4.38	4.47	+0.8
2035	31	MLB MLE	STL	23	23	140	591	150	63	21	100%	6.1	25.3%	10.6%	14.7%	3.6%	4.56	4.68	+0.4
2036	32	MLB MLE	STL	22	22	130	547	136	60	21	100%	5.9	24.9%	11.0%	13.9%	3.9%	4.76	4.90	0.0
2037	33	MLB MLE	STL	20	20	119	502	122	57	21	100%	5.9	24.4%	11.5%	12.9%	4.2%	4.99	5.15	-0.3
2027	23	MLB CTX	STL	13	13	70	296	77	32	8	100%	5.4	25.9%	10.8%	15.1%	2.7%	4.24	4.16	+0.5
2028	24	MLB CTX	STL	21	21	118	498	130	50	13	100%	5.6	26.2%	10.0%	16.2%	2.7%	4.11	4.03	+1.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	STL	24	24	142	600	158	57	16	100%	5.9	26.4%	9.6%	16.8%	2.7%	4.02	3.95	+1.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	STL	26	26	153	646	171	61	17	100%	5.9	26.5%	9.5%	17.0%	2.7%	3.97	3.93	+1.6
2031	27	MLB CTX	STL	26	26	156	659	174	63	18	100%	6.0	26.4%	9.6%	16.9%	2.7%	3.97	3.97	+1.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	STL	26	26	154	650	171	63	18	100%	5.9	26.3%	9.7%	16.6%	2.8%	4.01	4.05	+1.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	STL	25	25	149	629	164	63	19	100%	6.0	26.1%	10.0%	16.1%	3.0%	4.11	4.18	+1.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	STL	24	24	141	595	153	61	19	100%	5.9	25.7%	10.2%	15.5%	3.2%	4.25	4.34	+0.7
2035	31	MLB CTX	STL	22	22	133	562	142	60	19	100%	6.0	25.3%	10.6%	14.7%	3.4%	4.42	4.54	+0.3
2036	32	MLB CTX	STL	20	20	123	519	129	57	19	100%	6.2	24.9%	11.0%	13.9%	3.6%	4.61	4.75	0.0
2037	33	MLB CTX	STL	19	19	113	477	116	55	18	100%	5.9	24.4%	11.5%	12.9%	3.9%	4.83	4.99	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		245	245	1451	6128	1586	622	185	100%	5.9	25.9%	10.1%	15.7%	3.0%	4.21	3.86	+18.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	219	86	25	100%	5.9	25.9%	10.1%	15.7%	3.0%	4.21	3.86	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		25	25	107	448	111	61	13	100%	4.3	24.8%	13.7%	11.1%	2.9%	3.71	4.33	+11.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	47	200	840	209	115	24	100%	4.3	24.8%	13.7%	11.1%	2.9%	3.71	4.33	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Liam Doyle (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.49	25.6%	12.1%	3.0%	—	4.15	26.2%	16.1%	482	-0.34	—	—	—
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	85
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	82
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.11	495	80
Jacob Latz L 2019 · 3.35 FIP	23	SP	3.35	23.0%	12.6%	1.1%	.222	5.12	22.8%	10.7%	149	+1.77	2.26	473	77
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.58	23.7%	16.7%	227	+0.22	2.21	409	76
Evan Shawver L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	18.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.289	4.73	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.41	3.92	278	75
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	75
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	74
Riley Frey L 2023 · 4.00 FIP	21	SP	4.00	22.5%	7.5%	3.4%	.417	4.47	18.0%	10.8%	184	+0.47	3.87	202	74
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.97	18.2%	8.3%	358	+0.70	3.57	534	74
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.36	19.1%	13.6%	214	-0.05	3.32	277	74
Michel Gelabert L 2019 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	18.7%	12.1%	2.4%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	107	73
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	73
Adam Seminaris L 2021 · 3.94 FIP	22	SP	3.94	22.7%	8.3%	3.1%	.357	3.75	18.2%	9.3%	230	-0.19	3.00	577	72
Jackson Humphries L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	19	SP	4.48	19.8%	14.0%	2.3%	.302	5.94	20.8%	1.5%	248	+1.46	4.48	305	72
Ryan Webb L 2022 · 3.92 FIP	23	SP	3.92	22.0%	15.4%	1.3%	.398	3.71	19.6%	9.4%	345	-0.21	3.26	448	71
Joel Valdez L 2022 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP	3.78	24.4%	16.8%	1.1%	.271	4.36	20.0%	5.9%	194	+0.58	2.84	324	71
Austin Warner L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	23	SP	4.01	18.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.291	4.43	17.6%	9.4%	284	+0.42	3.81	491	71
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.7%	17.4%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	71
Reid Detmers L 2021 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP	4.17	29.9%	9.1%	4.5%	.335	4.09	25.1%	16.5%	443	-0.08	2.77	749	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.6	143	25.9%	10.2%	1.25	4.32
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45