Matt Barr

P Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 21 RHP A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#527ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	20	MIX2 levels	15	14	39	6.64	4.29	21.3%	13.3%	—	K 15.1% · BB 16.3% · FIP 5.46
2027PROJ	21	MLBMIN	—	—	0	5.55	5.55	18.7%	16.0%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBMIN	8	8	46	5.20	5.04	21.3%	13.8%	0.2
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBMIN	15	15	82	4.88	4.70	23.0%	12.4%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.2, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 94%

CompsKohl Franklin (age 22) · Peyton Pallette (age 22) · Ryan Harvey (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139130vR 122

ERA5.55

FIP5.55

K%18.7%

BB%16.0%

K-BB%2.8%

Proj IP81

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	14	39	188	40	25	4	93%	2.6	15.1%	16.3%	-1.1%	2.9%	6.64	5.46	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	14	39	188	40	25	4	93%	2.6	15.1%	16.3%	-1.1%	2.9%	6.64	5.46	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	14	39	188	40	25	4	93%	2.6	21.3%	13.3%	8.0%	2.1%	6.64	4.29	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	MIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.7%	16.0%	2.8%	3.0%	5.55	5.55	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIN	17	17	94	398	85	55	12	100%	5.5	21.3%	13.8%	7.5%	2.9%	5.19	5.03	+0.4
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIN	21	21	113	477	110	59	14	100%	5.4	23.0%	12.4%	10.6%	2.9%	4.87	4.69	+0.9
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIN	21	21	120	506	122	59	14	100%	5.7	24.1%	11.6%	12.5%	2.9%	4.63	4.48	+1.3
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIN	20	20	119	503	124	56	14	100%	6.0	24.7%	11.1%	13.6%	2.8%	4.47	4.36	+1.5
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIN	20	20	120	505	126	56	14	100%	6.0	25.1%	11.1%	14.0%	2.8%	4.38	4.32	+1.5
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIN	19	19	117	493	123	55	14	100%	6.1	25.1%	11.1%	13.9%	2.9%	4.37	4.36	+1.4
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIN	19	19	111	470	117	53	14	100%	5.9	24.9%	11.3%	13.7%	3.0%	4.42	4.45	+1.2
2035	29	MLB MLE	MIN	17	17	104	438	108	50	14	100%	6.1	24.7%	11.5%	13.2%	3.1%	4.51	4.58	+1.0
2036	30	MLB MLE	MIN	16	16	94	399	97	47	13	100%	5.9	24.3%	11.8%	12.5%	3.3%	4.66	4.75	+0.7
2037	31	MLB MLE	MIN	14	14	85	358	86	44	13	100%	6.1	23.9%	12.2%	11.8%	3.6%	4.84	4.96	+0.4
2038	32	MLB MLE	MIN	13	13	76	319	75	40	12	100%	5.8	23.5%	12.6%	10.9%	3.8%	5.05	5.18	+0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIN	8	8	46	194	41	27	6	100%	5.8	21.3%	13.8%	7.5%	2.9%	5.20	5.04	+0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIN	15	15	82	346	80	43	10	100%	5.5	23.0%	12.4%	10.6%	2.9%	4.88	4.70	+0.7
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIN	18	18	99	418	101	48	12	100%	5.5	24.1%	11.6%	12.5%	2.9%	4.64	4.49	+1.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIN	18	18	105	443	110	49	13	100%	5.8	24.7%	11.1%	13.6%	2.9%	4.48	4.37	+1.3
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIN	18	18	109	460	115	51	13	100%	6.1	25.1%	11.1%	14.0%	2.9%	4.39	4.33	+1.4
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIN	18	18	108	456	114	51	13	100%	6.0	25.1%	11.1%	13.9%	2.9%	4.38	4.37	+1.3
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIN	17	17	104	439	109	50	13	100%	6.1	24.9%	11.3%	13.7%	3.0%	4.43	4.46	+1.2
2035	29	MLB CTX	MIN	16	16	99	418	103	48	13	100%	6.2	24.7%	11.5%	13.2%	3.2%	4.52	4.59	+0.9
2036	30	MLB CTX	MIN	15	15	90	380	92	45	13	100%	6.0	24.3%	11.8%	12.5%	3.4%	4.67	4.76	+0.7
2037	31	MLB CTX	MIN	14	14	81	342	82	42	12	100%	5.8	23.9%	12.2%	11.8%	3.6%	4.85	4.97	+0.4
2038	32	MLB CTX	MIN	12	12	72	304	71	38	12	100%	6.0	23.5%	12.6%	10.9%	3.8%	5.06	5.19	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		171	171	995	4202	1020	491	130	100%	5.8	24.3%	11.7%	12.6%	3.1%	4.63	4.23	+13.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	205	99	26	100%	5.8	24.3%	11.7%	12.6%	3.1%	4.63	4.23	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		15	14	39	188	28	31	5	93%	2.6	15.1%	16.3%	-1.1%	2.9%	6.64	5.46	+10.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	71	200	956	145	156	27	93%	2.6	15.1%	16.3%	-1.1%	2.9%	6.64	5.46	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 23 IPFIP 3.52 → 4.43 (+0.91)K% 19.1% → 14.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.09%	—	×0.740	14.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.18%	—	×1.180	9.65%
HR / BF /BF	1.82%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.36%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.52 → 4.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Twins · 16 IPFIP 5.05 → 6.92 (+1.87)K% 24.4% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.36%	—	×0.680	16.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.51%	—	×1.250	25.64%
HR / BF /BF	2.56%	÷1.000	×1.400	3.59%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.05 → 6.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Barr (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.71	22.9%	10.4%	327	-0.84	—	—	—
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.38	205	89
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	3.91	23.8%	12.0%	201	-1.65	3.54	273	85
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	80
Alonzo Tredwell R 2024 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	17.4%	1.4%	.336	4.19	22.0%	9.9%	100	-0.24	4.19	166	79
Juan Nuñez R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	79
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.62	17.1%	7.4%	343	-0.97	4.16	409	79
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	79
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	79
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	78
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	78
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	78
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.39	20.2%	8.6%	215	-1.21	4.29	257	78
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	78
Beck Way R 2021 · 4.53 FIP	21	SP	4.53	23.1%	16.5%	2.4%	.250	4.79	19.8%	5.4%	246	+0.26	3.82	438	77
Gage Stanifer R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	20	SP	5.65	17.2%	21.4%	2.4%	.318	3.96	26.2%	11.6%	199	-1.69	2.85	301	77
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	77
Elvis Luciano R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	17.5%	12.6%	3.1%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	204	77
Jose Diaz R 2021 · 5.27 FIP	21	SP	5.27	16.5%	17.5%	2.5%	.357	5.01	17.6%	0.9%	89	-0.26	3.91	189	76
Mason Denaburg R 2022 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	16.3%	16.4%	2.1%	.278	5.84	13.1%	-7.7%	92	+0.89	4.48	151	76
Justin Jarvis R 2021 · 5.34 FIP	21	SP	5.34	16.7%	14.1%	3.4%	.300	5.08	19.7%	9.0%	347	-0.26	4.36	559	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.2	103	23.8%	12.1%	1.18	4.70
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Bill Butler ('69-'77, 2 WAR*)	3.0	99	22.0%*	11.3%*	1.30*	4.83*
Joe Decker ('69-'79, 6 WAR*)	3.5	101	21.4%*	11.8%*	1.04*	4.49*
Tom Griffin ('69-'82, 1 WAR*)	7.5	107	22.6%*	11.4%*	1.21*	4.93*
Robert Person ('03)	4.5	128	19.8%	11.2%	1.29	4.64
Daisuke Matsuzaka ('14)	4.0	99	20.9%	11.2%	0.97	4.45