Justin Jarvis — OGILVIE

Justin Jarvis P Oklahoma City Comets

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 183 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 70 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.56

FIP5.56

K%13.2%

BB%13.0%

K-BB%0.2%

ROS IP70

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL3535

CMD3030

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	AZL Brewers	10	3	19	83	18	4	2	30%	1.9	14.7%	6.0%	8.7%	3.4%	6.63	4.47	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	AZL Brewers	10	3	19	83	18	4	2	30%	1.9	21.7%	4.8%	16.9%	2.4%	6.63	3.21	—
2019	19	A MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	18	11	75	307	52	36	6	61%	4.1	12.5%	13.8%	-1.3%	2.5%	3.50	5.16	—
2019	19	A RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	18	11	75	307	52	36	6	61%	4.1	16.9%	11.7%	5.2%	2.0%	3.50	4.20	—
2021	21	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	17	17	63	286	62	35	9	100%	3.7	16.7%	14.1%	2.6%	3.4%	5.40	5.34	—
2021	21	A+ RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	17	17	63	286	62	35	9	100%	3.7	21.7%	12.2%	9.4%	3.1%	5.40	4.65	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	141	601	150	66	20	100%	5.0	19.3%	12.5%	6.8%	4.7%	3.83	5.61	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	141	601	150	66	20	100%	5.0	25.0%	11.0%	14.0%	3.3%	3.83	4.22	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	119	541	138	60	20	100%	4.6	21.1%	10.9%	10.2%	4.1%	5.31	4.97	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	119	541	138	60	20	100%	4.6	25.5%	11.1%	14.4%	3.7%	5.31	4.48	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	10	87	383	84	30	11	36%	3.1	18.3%	7.4%	10.9%	3.4%	4.55	4.36	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	10	87	383	84	30	11	36%	3.1	18.3%	7.4%	10.9%	3.4%	4.55	4.36	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	10	87	383	84	30	11	36%	3.1	21.9%	7.8%	14.1%	2.9%	4.55	3.85	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	13	10	55	250	38	34	4	77%	4.2	13.1%	12.2%	0.8%	1.8%	6.38	4.56	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	13	10	55	250	38	34	4	77%	4.2	13.1%	12.2%	0.8%	1.8%	6.38	4.56	—
2025	25	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Comets	13	10	55	250	38	34	4	77%	4.2	15.2%	13.6%	1.6%	1.6%	6.38	4.52	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	LAD	12	12	70	296	39	38	8	100%	5.8	13.2%	13.0%	0.2%	2.8%	5.56	5.56	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	LAD	11	11	68	287	40	37	8	100%	6.2	14.1%	12.8%	1.4%	2.9%	5.48	5.52	-0.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	LAD	11	11	65	274	40	35	8	100%	5.9	14.6%	12.7%	1.8%	3.1%	5.49	5.56	-0.5
2028	28	MLB CTX	LAD	5	5	29	122	17	16	4	100%	5.8	14.1%	12.8%	1.4%	2.9%	5.48	5.52	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	LAD	6	6	38	160	23	20	5	100%	6.3	14.6%	12.7%	1.8%	3.1%	5.49	5.56	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	11	67	283	41	36	9	100%	6.1	14.4%	12.7%	1.6%	3.0%	5.49	5.16	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	122	107	27	100%	6.0	14.4%	12.7%	1.6%	3.0%	5.49	5.16	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		140	105	559	2451	431	281	88	75%	4.0	17.6%	11.5%	6.1%	3.6%	4.74	5.04	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	38	200	877	154	101	32	75%	4.0	17.6%	11.5%	6.1%	3.6%	4.74	5.04	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Jarvis (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.56	13.2%	13.0%	2.8%	—	5.54	14.3%	1.6%	133	-0.02	—	—	—
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	82
Noah Skirrow R 2024 · 4.77 FIP	26	SP-	4.77	11.7%	11.7%	2.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	371	79
Fredy Quintero R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	27	SP-	4.55	11.3%	8.9%	2.3%	.375	4.38	15.1%	7.3%	113	-0.17	4.29	241	79
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	78
Luis Niebla R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	11.6%	13.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	156	78
Jordan Cooper R 2015 · 5.01 FIP	26	SP	5.01	9.2%	10.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	106	78
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	77
Mike McCarthy R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	27	SP-	4.78	9.4%	9.1%	2.4%	.280	5.03	6.2%	-3.5%	37	+0.25	4.78	153	77
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	76
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	75
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	75
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	74
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.80	19.8%	8.3%	116	-2.26	3.68	138	74
Justin Miller R 2004 · 5.41 FIP	26	SP-	5.41	12.5%	10.4%	3.7%	.316	2.63	28.6%	21.7%	62	-2.78	2.63	373	74
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	74
Jim Brower R 2000 · 5.54 FIP	27	SP-	5.54	10.9%	10.2%	3.8%	.314	4.22	16.4%	7.2%	310	-1.32	3.67	571	73
Kevin Hart R 2009 · 4.93 FIP	26	SP-	4.93	13.9%	11.0%	2.9%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	109	73
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	73
Asher Wojciechowski R 2016 · 5.40 FIP	27	SP	5.40	13.5%	11.0%	3.7%	.315	4.71	22.2%	14.4%	379	-0.69	3.15	678	72
Adam Panayotovich R 2017 · 5.45 FIP	25	SP-	5.45	9.6%	9.0%	3.7%	.375	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	121	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	13.9%	12.8%	1.14	5.51
C.J. Nitkowski ('05)	2.4	68	15.8%	11.9%	1.07	5.37
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Luther Hackman ('03)	1.1	71	13.3%	10.9%	1.10	5.09
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12