Justin Jarvis
P
Oklahoma City Comets
Age 26
RHP
6'2" / 183 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 70 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 147138vR 128
ERA5.70
FIP5.70
K%14.3%
BB%14.5%
K-BB%-0.2%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | AZL Brewers | 10 | 3 | 19 | 83 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 30% | 1.9 | 14.7% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 3.4% | 6.63 | 4.47 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | AZL Brewers | 10 | 3 | 19 | 83 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 30% | 1.9 | 21.7% | 4.8% | 16.9% | 2.4% | 6.63 | 3.21 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 18 | 11 | 75 | 307 | 52 | 36 | 6 | 61% | 4.1 | 12.5% | 13.8% | -1.3% | 2.4% | 3.50 | 5.13 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 18 | 11 | 75 | 307 | 52 | 36 | 6 | 61% | 4.1 | 16.9% | 11.7% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 3.50 | 4.20 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 17 | 17 | 63 | 286 | 62 | 35 | 9 | 100% | 3.7 | 16.7% | 14.1% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 5.40 | 5.12 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 17 | 17 | 63 | 286 | 62 | 35 | 9 | 100% | 3.7 | 21.7% | 12.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 5.40 | 4.65 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 141 | 601 | 150 | 66 | 20 | 100% | 5.0 | 19.3% | 12.5% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 3.83 | 5.98 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 141 | 601 | 150 | 66 | 20 | 100% | 5.0 | 25.0% | 11.0% | 14.0% | 3.3% | 3.83 | 4.22 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 119 | 541 | 138 | 60 | 20 | 100% | 4.6 | 21.3% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 4.0% | 5.31 | 5.02 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 119 | 541 | 138 | 60 | 20 | 100% | 4.6 | 25.5% | 11.1% | 14.4% | 3.7% | 5.31 | 4.48 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 10 | 87 | 383 | 84 | 30 | 11 | 36% | 3.1 | 18.5% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 3.7% | 4.55 | 4.61 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 10 | 87 | 383 | 84 | 30 | 11 | 36% | 3.1 | 21.9% | 7.8% | 14.1% | 2.9% | 4.55 | 3.85 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Oklahoma City Comets | 13 | 10 | 55 | 250 | 38 | 34 | 4 | 77% | 4.2 | 13.4% | 14.3% | -0.9% | 1.9% | 6.38 | 4.84 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Oklahoma City Comets | 13 | 10 | 55 | 250 | 38 | 34 | 4 | 77% | 4.2 | 15.2% | 13.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 6.38 | 4.52 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 42 | 43 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 14.3% | 14.5% | -0.2% | 2.9% | 5.70 | 5.70 | -0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 12 | 12 | 69 | 291 | 44 | 41 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 15.2% | 14.0% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 5.58 | 5.60 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 11 | 11 | 67 | 282 | 44 | 39 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 15.7% | 13.8% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 5.54 | 5.59 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 5 | 5 | 29 | 122 | 19 | 17 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 15.2% | 14.0% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 5.58 | 5.60 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 28 | 25 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 15.7% | 13.8% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 5.54 | 5.59 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 12 | 12 | 71 | 301 | 47 | 42 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 15.5% | 13.9% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 5.56 | 5.21 | -0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 132 | 118 | 25 | 100% | 6.0 | 15.5% | 13.9% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 5.56 | 5.21 | +0.4 | ||
| Career | — | 140 | 105 | 559 | 2451 | 434 | 295 | 92 | 75% | 4.0 | 17.7% | 12.0% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 4.74 | 5.18 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 38 | 200 | 877 | 155 | 106 | 33 | 75% | 4.0 | 17.7% | 12.0% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 4.74 | 5.18 | +0.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Jarvis (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.70 | 14.3% | 14.5% | 2.9% | — | 5.60 | 15.5% | 1.5% | 136 | -0.10 | — | — | — |
| Nick Pasquale R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.73 | 16.8% | 12.7% | 2.6% | .306 | 3.97 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 50 | -0.76 | 3.16 | 308 | 83 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.64 | 11.7% | 11.7% | 1.9% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 371 | 79 |
| Phillippe Aumont R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.64 | 19.6% | 18.2% | 1.6% | .262 | 5.31 | 22.3% | 10.4% | 64 | +0.67 | 4.64 | 147 | 78 |
| Luis Niebla R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.94 | 11.6% | 13.2% | 2.1% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 156 | 78 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2027 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.13 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 3.2% | .263 | 4.14 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 167 | -0.99 | 3.84 | 272 | 78 |
| Trystan Vrieling R 2025 · 5.66 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.66 | 16.8% | 17.2% | 3.3% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 297 | 75 |
| Jordan Cooper R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.05 | 9.2% | 10.2% | 2.6% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.05 | 106 | 75 |
| Johnny Hellweg R 2026 · 5.98 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.98 | 9.9% | 19.0% | 2.4% | .269 | 4.11 | 15.2% | 2.0% | 48 | -1.87 | 2.98 | 109 | 75 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.25 | 14.4% | 9.5% | 4.0% | .344 | 5.06 | 12.9% | 4.7% | 173 | -0.19 | 4.25 | 412 | 74 |
| Paul Clemens R 2027 · 5.36 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.76 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.60 | 4.76 | 247 | 74 |
| Ryan Cardona R 2025 · 5.21 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.21 | 12.0% | 14.9% | 2.3% | .237 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 367 | 74 |
| Scarlyn Reyes R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.59 | 13.9% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .321 | 4.87 | 13.7% | 5.3% | 70 | +0.28 | 4.39 | 317 | 73 |
| Noah Song R 2026 · 6.24 FIP | 26 | SP | 6.24 | 12.0% | 13.2% | 4.5% | .239 | 4.28 | 17.8% | 4.6% | 85 | -1.96 | 3.62 | 106 | 73 |
| Mike McCarthy R 2027 · 4.79 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.79 | 9.4% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .280 | 4.77 | 6.2% | -3.5% | 37 | -0.02 | 4.77 | 153 | 73 |
| Drake Fellows R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.39 | 16.2% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .293 | 4.64 | 16.3% | 6.7% | 150 | -0.75 | 4.58 | 226 | 72 |
| Kevin Biondic R 2023 · 5.39 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.39 | 8.6% | 11.0% | 2.9% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.39 | 100 | 72 |
| M.D. Johnson R 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.46 | 16.4% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .254 | 3.50 | 14.6% | 4.7% | 67 | -1.96 | 3.50 | 395 | 72 |
| Allen Webster R 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.99 | 14.0% | 9.1% | 3.5% | .356 | 5.50 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 58 | +0.51 | 4.43 | 177 | 72 |
| Jake Dunning R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.65 | 13.4% | 9.6% | 4.5% | .354 | 4.21 | 14.1% | 2.8% | 74 | -1.44 | 4.13 | 120 | 72 |
| Nic Swanson R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.19 | 16.8% | 12.4% | 3.5% | .309 | 5.12 | 23.8% | 9.5% | 47 | -0.07 | 4.09 | 414 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 69 | 15.1% | 14.1% | 1.15 | 5.61 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |