Mason Denaburg — OGILVIE

Mason Denaburg P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 195 lbs A

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 124

ERA5.64

FIP5.64

K%17.8%

BB%16.4%

K-BB%1.4%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	19	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	7	4	20	101	19	14	1	57%	2.9	12.8%	17.3%	-4.5%	1.4%	7.52	4.98	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	GCL Nationals	7	4	20	101	19	14	1	57%	2.9	18.8%	13.9%	5.0%	1.0%	7.52	3.94	—
2022	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	13	13	39	173	38	24	3	100%	3.0	16.3%	16.4%	-0.1%	2.1%	4.15	4.95	—
2022	22	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	13	13	39	173	38	24	3	100%	3.0	22.0%	13.9%	8.1%	1.7%	4.15	4.00	—
2023	23	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	28	4	36	206	33	49	6	14%	1.3	11.9%	28.1%	-16.2%	4.1%	11.64	7.92	—
2023	23	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	28	4	36	206	33	49	6	14%	1.3	11.9%	28.1%	-16.2%	4.1%	11.64	7.92	—
2023	23	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	28	4	36	206	33	49	6	14%	1.3	16.0%	23.8%	-7.8%	2.9%	11.64	7.48	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	62	279	49	39	4	0%	1.5	13.9%	16.0%	-2.1%	1.0%	4.38	4.48	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	62	279	49	39	4	0%	1.5	13.9%	16.0%	-2.1%	1.0%	4.38	4.48	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	62	279	49	39	4	0%	1.5	17.6%	14.0%	3.6%	1.4%	4.38	4.25	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	WSH	3	0	3	13	2	2	0	0%	1.0	17.8%	16.4%	1.4%	2.9%	5.64	5.64	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	WSH	52	0	55	231	42	36	7	0%	1.1	18.4%	15.8%	2.6%	2.9%	5.53	5.55	-0.6
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	51	0	53	224	42	35	7	0%	1.0	18.6%	15.4%	3.2%	3.1%	5.50	5.54	-0.6
2027	27	MLB CTX	WSH	19	0	20	84	15	13	2	0%	1.1	18.4%	15.8%	2.6%	2.9%	5.53	5.55	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	30	0	31	131	24	20	4	0%	1.0	18.6%	15.4%	3.2%	3.1%	5.50	5.54	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		49	0	51	216	40	34	6	0%	1.0	18.5%	15.6%	2.9%	3.0%	5.51	5.16	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	157	133	23	0%	1.1	18.5%	15.6%	2.9%	3.0%	5.51	5.16	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		88	21	157	759	104	148	16	24%	1.8	13.7%	19.5%	-5.8%	2.1%	6.41	5.59	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		112	27	200	965	132	188	21	24%	1.8	13.7%	19.5%	-5.8%	2.1%	6.41	5.59	-2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason Denaburg (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.64	17.8%	16.4%	2.9%	—	5.55	18.5%	2.9%	108	-0.09	—	—	—
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	84
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	81
Ryan Jensen R 2023 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	20.6%	17.0%	2.0%	.329	4.20	23.6%	6.8%	107	-0.44	4.00	311	79
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	79
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	79
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	78
Drake Fellows R 2023 · 5.66 FIP	25	SW	5.66	17.1%	20.4%	2.6%	.367	4.91	14.2%	5.1%	266	-0.75	4.32	277	78
Hunter Dollander R 2023 · 6.77 FIP	26	SU	6.77	17.6%	18.3%	5.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	106	78
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.19	17.7%	6.6%	90	-0.70	3.90	164	77
Jesús Reyes R 2019 · 5.71 FIP	26	SU	5.71	15.9%	15.7%	3.6%	.283	5.11	17.5%	5.6%	118	-0.60	3.85	554	77
Logan Taylor R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	17.2%	12.1%	2.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	300	77
Juan Paniagua R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	26	SU	4.57	17.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.246	4.75	12.9%	-1.0%	29	+0.18	4.57	151	77
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	77
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	76
Roberto Espinosa R 2017 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	14.5%	15.6%	1.3%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	117	76
Mitchell Osnowitz R 2017 · 5.30 FIP	26	SU	5.30	16.5%	18.7%	2.2%	.366	5.43	19.2%	7.7%	42	+0.13	4.54	132	76
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	76
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	76
Clate Schmidt R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	13.5%	13.9%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	160	76
Trey Haley R 2016 · 4.98 FIP	26	SU	4.98	14.0%	16.5%	1.8%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	111	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	18.3%	15.8%	1.15	5.55
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91