Mason Denaburg

P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 195 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	22	AWSH	13	13	39	4.15	4.00	22.0%	13.9%	—	K 16.3% · BB 16.4% · FIP 4.95
2023	23	AWSH	28	4	36	11.64	7.48	16.0%	23.8%	—	K 11.9% · BB 28.1% · FIP 7.92
2024	24	MIX2 levels	40	0	62	4.38	4.25	17.6%	14.0%	—	K 13.9% · BB 16.0% · FIP 4.48
2025	25	No MLB games played
2026	26	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	27	MLBWSH	—	—	0	4.89	4.89	21.0%	12.4%	—
2028PROJ36% MLB	28	MLBWSH	10	0	11	4.89	4.92	21.1%	12.2%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsGrant Black (age 27) · Luis Mateo (age 27) · Jake Stinnett (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.89

FIP4.89

K%21.0%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%8.6%

Proj IP39

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 39 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	19	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	7	4	20	101	19	14	1	57%	2.9	12.8%	17.3%	-4.5%	1.4%	7.52	4.98	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	GCL Nationals	7	4	20	101	19	14	1	57%	2.9	18.8%	13.9%	5.0%	1.0%	7.52	3.94	—
2022	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	13	13	39	173	38	24	3	100%	3.0	16.3%	16.4%	-0.1%	2.1%	4.15	4.95	—
2022	22	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	13	13	39	173	38	24	3	100%	3.0	22.0%	13.9%	8.1%	1.7%	4.15	4.00	—
2023	23	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	28	4	36	206	33	49	6	14%	1.3	11.9%	28.1%	-16.2%	4.1%	11.64	7.92	—
2023	23	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	28	4	36	206	33	49	6	14%	1.3	16.0%	23.8%	-7.8%	2.9%	11.64	7.48	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	62	279	49	39	4	0%	1.5	13.9%	16.0%	-2.1%	1.0%	4.38	4.48	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	62	279	49	39	4	0%	1.5	13.9%	16.0%	-2.1%	1.0%	4.38	4.48	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	62	279	49	39	4	0%	1.5	17.6%	14.0%	3.6%	1.4%	4.38	4.25	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.0%	12.4%	8.6%	3.0%	4.89	4.89	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	29	0	30	127	27	15	4	0%	1.0	21.1%	12.2%	8.9%	3.1%	4.89	4.92	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	10	0	11	46	10	6	1	0%	1.1	21.1%	12.2%	8.9%	3.1%	4.89	4.92	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	46	10	6	1	0%	1.1	21.1%	12.2%	8.9%	3.1%	4.89	4.54	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	110	18	0%	1.1	21.1%	12.2%	8.9%	3.1%	4.89	4.54	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		88	21	157	759	104	148	16	24%	1.8	13.7%	19.5%	-5.8%	2.1%	6.41	5.59	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		112	27	200	965	132	188	21	24%	1.8	13.7%	19.5%	-5.8%	2.1%	6.41	5.59	-0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AFredericksburg Nationals · 56 IPFIP 3.67 → 4.48 (+0.81)K% 18.7% → 13.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.73%	—	×0.740	13.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.55%	—	×1.180	15.98%
HR / BF /BF	0.80%	÷1.078	×1.300	0.96%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 3.67 → 4.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 6 IPFIP 8.68 → 10.06 (+1.38)K% 7.1% → 5.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	7.14%	—	×0.770	5.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.86%	—	×1.150	20.54%
HR / BF /BF	7.14%	÷1.016	×1.250	8.79%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 8.68 → 10.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFredericksburg Nationals · 36 IPFIP 6.36 → 7.92 (+1.56)K% 16.0% → 11.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.02%	—	×0.740	11.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	23.79%	—	×1.180	28.07%
HR / BF /BF	2.91%	÷0.917	×1.300	4.13%

Result: FIP 6.36 → 7.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AFredericksburg Nationals · 39 IPFIP 3.95 → 4.95 (+1.00)K% 22.0% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.97%	—	×0.740	16.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.87%	—	×1.180	16.37%
HR / BF /BF	1.73%	÷1.074	×1.300	2.10%

Result: FIP 3.95 → 4.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKGCL Nationals · 20 IPFIP 3.81 → 4.98 (+1.16)K% 18.8% → 12.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.81%	—	×0.680	12.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.86%	—	×1.250	17.33%
HR / BF /BF	0.99%	÷1.000	×1.400	1.39%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.81 → 4.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason Denaburg (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.89	21.0%	12.4%	3.0%	—	4.92	21.1%	8.9%	30	+0.03	—	—	—
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	87
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	84
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	81
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	81
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	80
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	79
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	79
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	79
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	78
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	78
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	78
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	78
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	78
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	78
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	77
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	77
Logan Taylor R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	17.2%	12.1%	2.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	300	77
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	77
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	76
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	34	21.1%	12.3%	1.16	4.89
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68