Elmer Rodríguez

Elmer Rodríguez P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 22 RHP 6'4" / 177 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.9 · 2030 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION83 act + 56 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10696vR 87

ERA3.78

FIP3.78

K%22.6%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%11.2%

ROS IP56

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 139 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL5055

CMD4550

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6095.2

Whiff%

p6127.0%

p1012.0%

xwOBA vs

p100.367

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.3M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.8	$13M	+$13M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.2	$15M	+$14M
2029	Arb-1	$10M	+2.6	$17M	+$9M
2030	Arb-2	$18M	+2.7	$16M	+$4M
2031	Arb-3	$27M	+2.7	$15M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$31M		$79M	+$43M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	18	MIX	2 levels	13	10	38	161	42	15	0	77%	2.9	17.9%	10.9%	6.9%	0.0%	1.88	2.98	—
2022	18	MIX	2 levels	13	10	38	161	42	15	0	77%	2.9	26.1%	9.3%	16.8%	0.0%	1.88	2.08	—
2023	19	A	Salem Red Sox	14	14	55	226	51	27	4	100%	4.0	16.7%	14.1%	2.6%	2.3%	2.60	4.74	—
2023	19	A	Salem Red Sox	14	14	55	226	51	27	4	100%	4.0	22.6%	11.9%	10.6%	1.8%	2.60	3.66	—
2024	20	MIX	2 levels	21	20	90	375	102	43	5	95%	4.3	20.4%	13.4%	7.0%	1.6%	2.91	3.97	—
2024	20	MIX	2 levels	21	20	90	375	102	43	5	95%	4.3	27.2%	11.5%	15.7%	1.3%	2.91	2.99	—
2025	21	MIX	3 levels	27	26	150	607	176	57	3	96%	5.6	23.3%	11.0%	12.2%	0.6%	2.58	2.87	—
2025	21	MIX	3 levels	27	26	150	607	176	57	3	96%	5.6	29.0%	9.4%	19.6%	0.5%	2.58	2.15	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	MLB	New York Yankees	17	17	83	360	77	45	6	100%	4.9	19.2%	13.0%	6.2%	1.8%	3.24	4.12	+0.9
ROS	22	MLB	NYY	11	11	56	236	53	27	5	100%	5.1	22.6%	11.4%	11.2%	2.1%	3.78	3.78	+0.5
ROS	22	MLB	NYY	11	11	56	236	53	27	5	100%	5.1	22.6%	11.4%	11.2%	2.1%	3.82	3.82	+0.5
2026 TOT	22	MLB	NYY	—	—	139	596	130	72	11	—	—	21.9%	12.1%	9.8%	1.8%	3.46	3.98	+2.3
2026 FULL	22	MLB	NYY	—	—	73	308	130	72	11	—	—	42.3%	23.4%	18.9%	3.6%	6.63	4.46	+0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	NYY	27	27	147	619	139	64	13	100%	5.4	22.4%	10.4%	12.0%	2.0%	4.11	4.03	+2.3
2028	24	MLB	NYY	31	31	175	739	170	72	15	100%	5.6	23.0%	9.7%	13.3%	2.1%	3.99	3.91	+3.0
2029	25	MLB	NYY	30	30	177	748	175	70	16	100%	5.9	23.4%	9.3%	14.0%	2.1%	3.91	3.85	+3.2
2030	26	MLB	NYY	30	30	177	748	176	69	16	100%	5.9	23.5%	9.3%	14.3%	2.1%	3.87	3.84	+3.2
2031	27	MLB	NYY	29	29	174	737	173	69	16	100%	6.0	23.5%	9.3%	14.2%	2.2%	3.87	3.88	+3.1
2032	28	MLB	NYY	29	29	174	737	172	70	17	100%	6.0	23.4%	9.5%	13.9%	2.3%	3.92	3.96	+2.9
2033	29	MLB	NYY	28	28	167	703	163	68	17	100%	6.0	23.2%	9.7%	13.4%	2.4%	4.02	4.09	+2.6
2034	30	MLB	NYY	26	26	157	661	151	66	17	100%	6.0	22.8%	10.0%	12.8%	2.6%	4.17	4.27	+2.1
2035	31	MLB	NYY	24	24	146	616	138	64	18	100%	6.1	22.4%	10.4%	12.0%	2.9%	4.35	4.47	+1.6
2036	32	MLB	NYY	23	23	135	570	125	61	18	100%	5.9	21.9%	10.8%	11.2%	3.1%	4.56	4.70	+1.1
2037	33	MLB	NYY	21	21	124	524	112	59	18	100%	5.9	21.4%	11.2%	10.2%	3.4%	4.79	4.95	+0.7
2038	34	MLB	NYY	19	19	113	476	100	56	18	100%	5.9	20.9%	11.7%	9.2%	3.7%	5.05	5.22	+0.2
2039	35	MLB	NYY	17	17	101	427	87	52	17	100%	6.0	20.3%	12.3%	8.0%	4.0%	5.34	5.53	-0.2
2027	23	MLB	NYY	26	26	139	587	131	61	12	100%	5.3	22.4%	10.4%	12.0%	2.1%	4.15	4.07	+2.2
2028	24	MLB	NYY	30	30	166	701	161	68	15	100%	5.5	23.0%	9.7%	13.3%	2.2%	4.03	3.95	+2.8
2029	25	MLB	NYY	29	29	168	709	166	66	16	100%	5.8	23.4%	9.3%	14.0%	2.2%	3.95	3.89	+3.0
2030	26	MLB	NYY	28	28	168	709	167	66	16	100%	6.0	23.5%	9.3%	14.3%	2.2%	3.91	3.88	+3.0
2031	27	MLB	NYY	28	28	166	701	165	66	16	100%	5.9	23.5%	9.3%	14.2%	2.3%	3.91	3.92	+2.9
2032	28	MLB	NYY	28	28	166	701	164	67	17	100%	5.9	23.4%	9.5%	13.9%	2.4%	3.97	4.01	+2.7
2033	29	MLB	NYY	26	26	158	667	154	65	17	100%	6.1	23.2%	9.7%	13.4%	2.5%	4.07	4.14	+2.3
2034	30	MLB	NYY	25	25	149	629	143	63	17	100%	6.0	22.8%	10.0%	12.8%	2.7%	4.22	4.32	+1.9
2035	31	MLB	NYY	23	23	139	587	131	61	17	100%	6.0	22.4%	10.4%	12.0%	3.0%	4.41	4.53	+1.4
2036	32	MLB	NYY	21	21	128	540	119	58	17	100%	6.1	21.9%	10.8%	11.2%	3.2%	4.62	4.76	+1.0
2037	33	MLB	NYY	20	20	118	498	107	56	17	100%	5.9	21.4%	11.2%	10.2%	3.5%	4.86	5.02	+0.5
2038	34	MLB	NYY	17	17	102	431	90	51	16	100%	6.0	20.9%	11.7%	9.2%	3.8%	5.13	5.30	+0.1
2039	35	MLB	NYY	14	14	87	367	75	45	15	100%	6.2	20.3%	12.3%	8.0%	4.2%	5.42	5.61	-0.5
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			330	330	1928	8150	1838	831	216	100%	5.8	22.5%	10.2%	12.4%	2.6%	4.26	3.94	+33.0
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	846	191	86	22	100%	5.8	22.5%	10.2%	12.4%	2.6%	4.26	3.94	+3.4
Career	—			92	87	417	1729	353	213	22	95%	4.5	20.4%	12.3%	8.1%	1.2%	2.72	3.62	+8.7
/ 200 IP	—			44	42	200	830	169	102	10	95%	4.5	20.4%	12.3%	8.1%	1.2%	2.72	3.62	+4.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Elmer Rodríguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.03	23.8%	11.1%	2.1%	—	3.92	23.0%	13.2%	499	-0.11	—	—	—
Jordan Foley R 2026 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	19.6%	12.1%	1.7%	.294	4.08	22.8%	9.3%	162	+0.17	3.24	305	92
Curtis Taylor R 2026 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP	4.10	19.3%	9.9%	2.5%	.305	3.42	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.68	2.58	408	90
Hurston Waldrep R 2026 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP	3.78	19.9%	11.4%	1.7%	.325	4.05	21.0%	9.0%	159	+0.27	3.78	248	89
Mike Ruff R 2027 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	18.5%	12.4%	1.4%	.301	5.54	16.0%	5.0%	185	+1.68	3.86	260	88
Bryce Cunningham R 2026 · 4.06 FIP	22	SP	4.06	19.3%	9.9%	2.4%	.268	5.93	17.4%	2.1%	47	+1.87	4.06	101	88
Jordan Romano R 2027 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP	3.72	18.1%	10.8%	1.4%	.240	3.98	19.3%	10.1%	328	+0.26	2.40	670	88
Drew Anderson R 2026 · 3.54 FIP	22	SP	3.54	21.1%	9.2%	1.9%	.295	4.74	16.3%	7.6%	273	+1.20	3.11	506	88
Tyler Skulina R 2027 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP	4.46	18.3%	11.6%	2.6%	.242	5.24	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+0.78	4.46	222	87
Cade Smith R 2026 · 3.88 FIP	22	SP	3.88	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.75	18.7%	6.9%	107	+1.87	3.88	192	87
Tanner Burns R 2026 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	22.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.292	5.42	19.5%	6.0%	244	+1.35	4.07	378	87
Luke Russo R 2027 · 3.67 FIP	23	SP	3.67	21.7%	11.1%	1.8%	.326	4.43	21.1%	10.5%	112	+0.76	3.67	213	87
Mike Vasil R 2026 · 3.71 FIP	22	SP	3.71	21.9%	10.5%	2.0%	.264	4.60	19.1%	9.4%	359	+0.89	3.71	429	87
Blake Wehunt R 2027 · 3.63 FIP	23	SP	3.63	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.10	24.1%	14.3%	117	+0.47	3.63	209	86
Seth Keener R 2026 · 3.50 FIP	22	SP	3.50	20.7%	13.6%	0.8%	.280	6.30	15.4%	1.7%	110	+2.80	3.50	174	86
Mason Hickman R 2026 · 4.38 FIP	22	SP	4.38	20.2%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	5.37	24.0%	10.8%	181	+0.99	4.38	300	86
Shelby Lackey R 2026 · 4.18 FIP	22	SP	4.18	18.2%	10.0%	2.5%	.323	3.85	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.33	2.82	175	86
Marcelo Perez R 2027 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	18.0%	8.6%	2.5%	.288	4.99	14.1%	6.7%	217	+0.97	4.02	285	85
Blake Rivera R 2025 · 3.80 FIP	21	SP	3.80	20.3%	14.5%	1.1%	.298	3.92	19.8%	8.3%	61	+0.12	3.78	179	85
David Festa R 2026 · 3.73 FIP	22	SP	3.73	19.9%	9.5%	2.0%	.275	3.66	26.6%	17.0%	302	-0.07	3.55	405	85
Cameron Foster R 2028 · 4.24 FIP	24	SP	4.24	18.9%	10.3%	2.6%	.329	4.33	21.3%	10.9%	132	+0.09	2.63	213	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	14	146	22.7%	10.2%	0.99	4.22
Kyle Gibson ('24)	10	164	19.6%	8.3%	1.14	4.46
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Rich Hill ('23)	9	104	25.0%	8.0%	1.12	3.65
Zach Davies ('23)	9	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	9	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98