Elmer Rodríguez

Elmer Rodríguez P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

+0.7 WAR

INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)

Age 22 RHP 6'4" / 177 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 3.1 · 2029

ERA4.04

FIP4.04

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%23.0%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%12.4%

IP120

trajectory · 10 yrs

3.1peak

2029

OFP—50

K†5560

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	18	A	Salem Red Sox	13	10	38	161	42	15	0	17.9%	10.9%	0.0%	1.88	2.98	+0.9
2023	19	A	Salem Red Sox	14	14	55	226	51	27	4	16.7%	14.1%	2.3%	2.60	4.74	+0.1
2024	20	A+	Greenville Drive	21	20	90	375	102	43	5	20.4%	13.4%	1.6%	2.91	3.98	+1.2
2025	21	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	27	26	150	607	176	57	3	23.3%	11.0%	0.6%	2.58	2.87	+4.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	3	3	16	56	13	6	1	20.4%	11.2%	2.0%	1.15	3.88	+0.2
ROS	22	MLB	NYY	48	—	48	203	47	21	4	23.0%	10.6%	2.1%	4.04	4.04	+0.5
2026 Total	22	MLB	NYY	—	—	64	259	60	27	5	23.0%	10.6%	2.0%	3.33	4.00	+0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	23	MLB	NYY	26	26	144	610	144	59	13	23.6%	9.7%	2.2%	3.96	3.89	+2.3
2028	24	MLB	NYY	30	30	164	693	167	63	15	24.1%	9.1%	2.2%	3.88	3.81	+2.8
2029	25	MLB	NYY	32	32	178	752	183	66	17	24.3%	8.8%	2.2%	3.82	3.76	+3.1
2030	26	MLB	NYY	32	32	178	752	184	66	17	24.5%	8.7%	2.2%	3.78	3.75	+3.1
2031	27	MLB	NYY	32	32	177	747	183	66	17	24.5%	8.8%	2.3%	3.77	3.76	+3.1
2032	28	MLB	NYY	32	32	174	736	180	65	17	24.4%	8.8%	2.3%	3.78	3.79	+3.0
2033	29	MLB	NYY	31	31	170	719	175	64	17	24.3%	8.9%	2.3%	3.81	3.83	+2.8
2034	30	MLB	NYY	30	30	165	698	168	63	17	24.1%	9.0%	2.4%	3.86	3.89	+2.6
2035	31	MLB	NYY	29	29	159	673	161	61	17	23.9%	9.1%	2.5%	3.92	3.97	+2.4
2036	32	MLB	NYY	28	28	153	646	153	60	16	23.6%	9.3%	2.5%	4.00	4.05	+2.2
2037	33	MLB	NYY	27	27	146	617	144	58	16	23.3%	9.4%	2.6%	4.09	4.15	+1.9
2038	34	MLB	NYY	25	25	139	586	134	57	16	22.9%	9.7%	2.7%	4.19	4.26	+1.6
2039	35	MLB	NYY	24	24	131	552	125	55	16	22.6%	9.9%	2.8%	4.31	4.38	+1.4
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			78	73	349	1425	296	173	16	20.7%	12.1%	1.1%	2.53	3.51	+7.1
/ 200 IP	—			45	42	200	817	170	99	9	20.7%	12.1%	1.1%	2.53	3.51	+4.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Elmer Rodríguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.04	23.0%	10.6%	2.1%	—	3.82	24.0%	14.9%	487	-0.22	—	—	—
Austin Smith R 2027 · 3.85 FIP	23	SU	3.85	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.19	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.34	3.85	100	93
Donovan Benoit R 2027 · 3.58 FIP	23	SU	3.58	25.3%	12.4%	1.9%	.284	4.43	17.6%	4.3%	138	+0.85	3.58	183	92
Stephen Jones R 2028 · 3.60 FIP	24	SU	3.60	23.8%	11.0%	2.0%	.304	4.61	21.9%	9.2%	142	+1.01	3.60	246	91
Peyton Williams R 2027 · 3.66 FIP	23	SU	3.66	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.87	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.21	3.66	123	90
Justin Yeager R 2027 · 3.59 FIP	23	SU	3.59	26.6%	12.3%	2.1%	.281	3.93	25.4%	12.6%	103	+0.34	3.29	201	90
Joey Gerber R 2026 · 3.01 FIP	22	SU	3.01	26.6%	10.5%	1.5%	.316	4.15	9.7%	1.6%	16	+1.14	3.01	137	89
Kyle Zurak R 2026 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.19	181	89
Jonathan Brand R 2027 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	3.95	18.2%	9.1%	96	-0.00	3.37	134	89
Ryan Shreve R 2027 · 3.15 FIP	23	SU	3.15	25.9%	11.8%	1.3%	.257	4.43	17.8%	8.6%	182	+1.28	3.15	290	89
Heath Holder R 2027 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.92	367	89
Kyle Marman R 2026 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	89
Camden Minacci R 2026 · 3.67 FIP	22	SU	3.67	24.8%	10.9%	2.3%	.371	3.60	17.7%	7.5%	61	-0.07	3.60	110	89
Michael Gomez R 2026 · 3.33 FIP	22	SU	3.33	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.80	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.47	3.33	286	89
Brian Hunter R 2026 · 3.03 FIP	22	SU	3.03	22.0%	10.3%	0.9%	.298	3.21	19.0%	8.6%	79	+0.18	3.03	112	89
Kenny Oakley R 2026 · 3.50 FIP	22	SU	3.50	23.8%	9.1%	2.3%	.348	3.89	17.3%	7.8%	115	+0.39	3.18	144	89
Owen Holt R 2027 · 3.81 FIP	23	SU	3.81	20.7%	10.2%	2.1%	.258	4.53	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.72	3.81	145	88
Cody Palmquist R 2026 · 4.20 FIP	22	SU	4.20	21.9%	9.0%	3.3%	.278	5.95	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.75	4.20	104	88
Chad Patrick R 2027 · 3.82 FIP	23	SU	3.82	20.3%	9.9%	2.1%	.315	4.23	22.3%	13.8%	422	+0.41	3.72	483	88
Connor Cooke R 2026 · 3.37 FIP	22	SU	3.37	23.7%	8.4%	2.2%	.350	4.28	24.6%	10.4%	56	+0.91	2.93	103	88
Taylor Floyd R 2027 · 3.48 FIP	23	SU	3.48	27.7%	12.1%	2.2%	.291	4.31	19.4%	6.5%	183	+0.83	3.48	290	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.3	$19M	+$18M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.8	$24M	+$23M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+3.1	$27M	+$26M
2030	Arb-1	$6M	+3.1	$28M	+$22M
2031	Arb-2	$10M	+3.1	$29M	+$19M
2032	Arb-3	$15M	+3.0	$29M	+$14M
Totals		$33M		$155M	+$122M