Elmer Rodríguez

P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 177 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 2.0 · 2029

Overview

AAASP40-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	MIX2 levels	21	20	90	2.91	2.99	27.2%	11.5%	—	K 20.4% · BB 13.4% · FIP 3.98
2025	21	MIX3 levels	27	26	150	2.58	2.15	29.0%	9.4%	—	K 23.3% · BB 11.0% · FIP 2.87
2026	22	MIX2 levels	27	27	133	3.05	3.47	22.0%	12.2%	3.1	K 19.4% · BB 11.3% · FIP 3.59
2027PROJ	23	MLBNYY	14	14	76	4.34	4.28	22.5%	11.5%	1.0
2028PROJ80% MLB	24	MLBNYY	19	19	106	4.30	4.22	23.0%	10.5%	1.6
2029PROJ87% MLB	25	MLBNYY	20	20	115	4.21	4.14	23.3%	9.9%	1.8

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 4.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.128First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$6M2031Arb-2$11M2032Arb-3$14M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo62

K%13

xwOBA vs12

Career WAR0.9 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 22, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 63%

CompsChad Patrick (age 23) · Glenn Sparkman (age 23) · TJ Shook (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115106vR 98

ERA4.34

FIP4.28

K%22.5%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%11.0%

Proj IP112

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 112 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$43M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6295.4

Whiff%

p7629.3%

p1316.8%

xwOBA vs

p120.357

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.128 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$8M	+$7M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$12M	+$11M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.8	$12M	+$12M
2030	Arb-1	$6M	+1.8	$11M	+$7M
2031	Arb-2	$11M	+1.8	$11M	+$4M
2032	Arb-3	$14M	+1.6	$9M	+$0.2M
Totals		$34M		$63M	+$41M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	10	38	161	42	15	0	77%	2.9	17.9%	10.9%	6.9%	0.0%	1.88	2.98	—
2022	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	10	38	161	42	15	0	77%	2.9	26.1%	9.3%	16.8%	0.0%	1.88	2.08	—
2023	19	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	14	14	55	226	51	27	4	100%	4.0	16.7%	14.1%	2.6%	2.3%	2.60	4.74	—
2023	19	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	14	14	55	226	51	27	4	100%	4.0	22.6%	11.9%	10.6%	1.8%	2.60	3.66	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	90	375	102	43	5	95%	4.3	20.4%	13.4%	7.0%	1.7%	2.91	3.98	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	90	375	102	43	5	95%	4.3	20.4%	13.4%	7.0%	1.7%	2.91	3.98	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	20	90	375	102	43	5	95%	4.3	27.2%	11.5%	15.7%	1.3%	2.91	2.99	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	26	150	607	176	57	3	96%	5.6	23.3%	11.0%	12.2%	0.6%	2.58	2.87	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	26	150	607	176	57	3	96%	5.6	23.3%	11.0%	12.2%	0.6%	2.58	2.87	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	26	150	607	176	57	3	96%	5.6	29.0%	9.4%	19.6%	0.5%	2.58	2.15	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	133	573	126	70	7	100%	4.9	19.4%	11.3%	8.2%	1.3%	3.05	3.59	+2.9
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	133	573	126	70	7	100%	4.9	19.4%	11.3%	8.2%	1.3%	3.05	3.59	+2.9
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	133	573	126	70	7	100%	4.9	22.0%	12.2%	9.8%	1.2%	3.05	3.47	+3.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			6	6	27	125	21	16	2	100%	4.4	16.8%	12.8%	4.0%	1.6%	5.40	4.30	+0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	NYY	14	14	76	321	72	37	7	100%	5.4	22.5%	11.5%	11.0%	2.3%	4.34	4.28	+1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYY	24	24	133	561	129	59	13	100%	5.5	23.0%	10.5%	12.5%	2.3%	4.21	4.13	+2.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYY	23	23	133	561	131	56	13	100%	5.8	23.3%	9.9%	13.4%	2.3%	4.12	4.05	+2.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYY	21	21	126	531	125	52	13	100%	6.0	23.5%	9.8%	13.7%	2.4%	4.08	4.04	+2.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYY	20	20	122	515	120	50	13	100%	6.1	23.4%	9.8%	13.6%	2.4%	4.08	4.08	+1.9
2032	28	MLB MLE	NYY	20	20	120	505	118	50	13	100%	6.0	23.3%	9.9%	13.4%	2.5%	4.13	4.17	+1.7
2033	29	MLB MLE	NYY	18	18	110	467	106	47	13	100%	6.1	22.7%	10.2%	12.5%	2.7%	4.25	4.33	+1.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	NYY	17	17	100	420	92	44	12	100%	5.9	22.0%	10.5%	11.5%	2.9%	4.42	4.53	+1.0
2035	31	MLB MLE	NYY	15	15	88	373	79	40	12	100%	5.9	21.2%	10.8%	10.4%	3.1%	4.63	4.77	+0.6
2036	32	MLB MLE	NYY	13	13	78	329	67	37	11	100%	6.0	20.4%	11.2%	9.2%	3.4%	4.86	5.02	+0.3
2037	33	MLB MLE	NYY	11	11	68	289	57	34	11	100%	6.2	19.6%	11.7%	7.9%	3.6%	5.12	5.30	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYY	19	19	106	448	103	47	11	100%	5.6	23.0%	10.5%	12.5%	2.5%	4.30	4.22	+1.6
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYY	20	20	115	486	113	48	12	100%	5.8	23.3%	9.9%	13.4%	2.5%	4.21	4.14	+1.8
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYY	19	19	114	481	113	47	12	100%	6.0	23.5%	9.8%	13.7%	2.5%	4.17	4.13	+1.8
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYY	19	19	112	473	111	46	12	100%	5.9	23.4%	9.8%	13.6%	2.6%	4.17	4.17	+1.8
2032	28	MLB CTX	NYY	19	19	112	473	110	47	13	100%	5.9	23.3%	9.9%	13.4%	2.7%	4.22	4.26	+1.6
2033	29	MLB CTX	NYY	18	18	105	443	101	45	13	100%	5.8	22.7%	10.2%	12.5%	2.9%	4.35	4.43	+1.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	NYY	16	16	95	401	88	42	12	100%	5.9	22.0%	10.5%	11.5%	3.1%	4.53	4.64	+1.0
2035	31	MLB CTX	NYY	14	14	84	355	75	38	12	100%	6.0	21.2%	10.8%	10.4%	3.3%	4.75	4.89	+0.6
2036	32	MLB CTX	NYY	12	12	74	312	64	35	11	100%	6.2	20.4%	11.2%	9.2%	3.6%	4.98	5.14	+0.3
2037	33	MLB CTX	NYY	11	11	65	274	54	32	11	100%	5.9	19.6%	11.7%	7.9%	3.9%	5.25	5.43	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		171	171	1009	4272	953	444	121	100%	5.9	22.3%	10.4%	11.9%	2.8%	4.46	4.09	+15.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	847	189	88	24	100%	5.9	22.3%	10.4%	11.9%	2.8%	4.46	4.09	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		102	97	466	1942	395	231	23	95%	4.6	20.4%	11.9%	8.5%	1.2%	2.72	3.53	+13.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	42	200	833	170	99	10	95%	4.6	20.4%	11.9%	8.5%	1.2%	2.72	3.53	+2.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 106 IPFIP 3.26 → 3.45 (+0.19)K% 23.4% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.44%	—	×0.860	20.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.05%	—	×0.900	10.85%
HR / BF /BF	1.12%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.23%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.26 → 3.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 84 IPFIP 2.18 → 3.00 (+0.82)K% 29.0% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.03%	—	×0.770	22.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.85%	—	×1.150	12.48%
HR / BF /BF	0.29%	÷0.969	×1.250	0.38%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 2.18 → 3.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AASomerset Patriots · 61 IPFIP 2.03 → 2.69 (+0.66)K% 30.3% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.33%	—	×0.810	24.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.20%	—	×1.100	9.02%
HR / BF /BF	0.82%	÷1.030	×1.200	0.96%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 106).

Result: FIP 2.03 → 2.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 5 IPFIP 1.95 → 2.11 (+0.16)K% 13.6% → 11.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.64%	—	×0.860	11.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×0.900	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.070	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.95 → 2.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ASalem Red Sox · 61 IPFIP 2.14 → 3.08 (+0.93)K% 28.5% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.52%	—	×0.740	21.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.77%	—	×1.180	11.52%
HR / BF /BF	0.39%	÷0.933	×1.300	0.54%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 2.14 → 3.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Greenville Drive · 29 IPFIP 4.80 → 5.93 (+1.13)K% 24.4% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.37%	—	×0.770	18.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.13%	—	×1.150	17.39%
HR / BF /BF	3.36%	÷1.043	×1.250	4.03%

Result: FIP 4.80 → 5.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ASalem Red Sox · 55 IPFIP 3.68 → 4.74 (+1.06)K% 22.6% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.57%	—	×0.740	16.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.95%	—	×1.180	14.10%
HR / BF /BF	1.77%	÷0.999	×1.300	2.30%

Result: FIP 3.68 → 4.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Red Sox · 32 IPFIP 1.99 → 2.98 (+0.99)K% 26.3% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.28%	—	×0.680	17.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.76%	—	×1.250	10.95%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.943	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 1.99 → 2.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Elmer Rodríguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.3%	—	4.07	23.3%	13.2%	392	-0.21	—	—	—
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.19	22.1%	14.2%	422	+0.33	3.69	570	88
Glenn Sparkman R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	23	SP	3.76	20.0%	11.6%	1.6%	.296	3.70	15.9%	10.9%	207	-0.06	3.56	363	86
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	452	84
Rubby De La Rosa R 2011 · 3.75 FIP	22	SP-	3.75	23.6%	11.0%	2.3%	.300	4.27	16.2%	8.8%	113	+0.52	3.75	455	82
Trevor May R 2014 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP	4.40	20.7%	9.9%	3.3%	.369	3.18	25.0%	19.1%	157	-1.22	3.05	477	82
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.53	19.8%	6.6%	278	+1.79	3.74	362	82
Jared Karros R 2024 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	21.9%	9.2%	1.7%	.281	7.71	12.4%	2.7%	52	+4.35	3.36	191	81
Bud Norris R 2009 · 4.47 FIP	24	SP	4.47	21.7%	9.6%	3.6%	.309	4.01	22.5%	13.5%	508	-0.46	3.51	1,221	81
Silvano Hechavarria R 2024 · 4.05 FIP	21	SP	4.05	20.0%	10.3%	2.4%	.212	5.06	15.6%	5.4%	169	+1.01	3.90	218	81
Jaxon Wiggins R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	22.5%	12.8%	1.3%	.286	3.71	23.6%	9.6%	102	+0.18	3.11	154	80
Jared Lyons R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	23	SP	4.72	22.1%	14.4%	3.0%	.258	4.13	17.6%	8.7%	173	-0.59	3.28	265	80
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	80
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	79
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	79
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.31	22.9%	10.2%	109	+0.88	3.43	142	79
Bryce Jarvis R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP	4.99	21.2%	11.0%	4.2%	.276	5.08	17.8%	6.3%	296	+0.09	4.14	536	78
Rafael Montero R 2014 · 5.04 FIP	23	SP-	5.04	21.6%	11.9%	4.1%	.298	4.32	19.3%	8.2%	296	-0.72	2.43	714	78
Gus Varland R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	19.6%	8.7%	3.2%	.294	5.73	18.1%	5.7%	105	+1.44	2.39	334	78
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.42	20.6%	11.4%	217	-0.41	3.07	280	78
Mike Ruff R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP	4.00	18.5%	12.4%	1.6%	.301	5.73	16.0%	5.0%	185	+1.73	4.00	260	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.1	101	22.4%	10.5%	1.01	4.35
Matt Young ('83-'93, 8 WAR*)	5.9	119	22.8%*	10.5%*	0.91*	4.53*
Darren Dreifort ('04)	4.4	97	21.2%	10.3%	0.93	4.36
Jorge De La Rosa ('18)	7.6	109	19.1%	10.3%	1.05	4.58
Skip Lockwood ('69-'80, 11 WAR*)	6.2	103	22.5%*	9.1%*	1.06*	4.28*
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02
Diego Segui ('62-'77, 10 WAR*)	9.0	121	22.2%*	9.9%*	1.19*	4.40*