Elmer Rodríguez

Elmer Rodríguez P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 22 RHP 6'4" / 177 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 3.3 · 2029 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION128 act + 10 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10698vR 90

ERA3.82

FIP3.82

K%22.1%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%10.6%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 138 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$23M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL5050

CMD4550

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6295.4

Whiff%

p7629.3%

p1316.8%

xwOBA vs

p120.357

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.6M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.7	$13M	+$12M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.9	$13M	+$12M
2029	Arb-1	$10M	+2.1	$13M	+$6M
2030	Arb-2	$18M	+2.1	$12M	+$0.6M
2031	Arb-3	$27M	+2.0	$11M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$30M		$63M	+$31M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	10	38	161	42	15	0	77%	2.9	17.9%	10.9%	6.9%	0.0%	1.88	2.98	—
2022	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	10	38	161	42	15	0	77%	2.9	26.1%	9.3%	16.8%	0.0%	1.88	2.08	—
2023	19	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	14	14	55	226	51	27	4	100%	4.0	16.7%	14.1%	2.6%	2.3%	2.60	4.74	—
2023	19	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	14	14	55	226	51	27	4	100%	4.0	16.7%	14.1%	2.6%	2.3%	2.60	4.74	—
2023	19	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	14	14	55	226	51	27	4	100%	4.0	22.6%	11.9%	10.6%	1.8%	2.60	3.66	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	90	375	102	43	5	95%	4.3	20.4%	13.4%	7.0%	1.7%	2.91	3.98	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	90	375	102	43	5	95%	4.3	20.4%	13.4%	7.0%	1.7%	2.91	3.98	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	20	90	375	102	43	5	95%	4.3	27.2%	11.5%	15.7%	1.3%	2.91	2.99	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	26	150	607	176	57	3	96%	5.6	23.3%	11.0%	12.2%	0.6%	2.58	2.87	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	26	150	607	176	57	3	96%	5.6	23.3%	11.0%	12.2%	0.6%	2.58	2.87	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	26	150	607	176	57	3	96%	5.6	29.0%	9.4%	19.6%	0.5%	2.58	2.15	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			6	6	27	125	21	16	2	100%	4.4	16.8%	12.8%	4.0%	1.6%	5.40	4.30	+0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	26	26	128	553	123	65	7	100%	4.9	19.1%	10.9%	8.2%	1.3%	3.09	3.60	—
YTD	22	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	26	26	128	553	123	65	7	100%	4.9	19.1%	10.9%	8.2%	1.3%	3.09	3.60	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	AAA RAW	NYY	20	20	102	428	102	49	5	100%	5.1	23.8%	11.4%	12.4%	1.2%	2.48	3.18	—
2026	22	MLB RAW	NYY	6	6	27	125	21	16	2	100%	4.5	16.8%	12.8%	4.0%	1.6%	5.40	4.18	+0.2
SO FAR	22	MLB RAW	NYY	6	6	27	125	21	16	2	100%	4.5	16.8%	12.8%	4.0%	1.6%	5.40	4.18	+0.2
ROS	22	MLB MLE	NYY	2	2	10	42	9	5	1	100%	4.9	22.1%	11.5%	10.6%	2.1%	3.82	3.82	+0.1
ROS	22	MLB CTX	NYY	2	2	10	42	9	5	1	100%	5.0	22.1%	11.5%	10.6%	2.2%	3.90	3.90	+0.1
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	NYY	—	—	138	595	132	70	8	—	—	22.2%	11.7%	10.5%	1.3%	3.14	3.61	+2.2
FULL	22	MLB A+C	NYY	—	—	37	154	132	70	8	—	—	85.7%	45.3%	40.5%	5.1%	11.90	4.41	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	NYY	33	33	174	735	167	79	15	100%	5.3	22.7%	10.7%	12.0%	2.1%	4.14	4.05	+1.8
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYY	31	31	175	739	172	74	16	100%	5.6	23.3%	10.0%	13.3%	2.1%	4.02	3.93	+2.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYY	30	30	177	748	177	71	16	100%	5.9	23.6%	9.5%	14.1%	2.1%	3.93	3.87	+2.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYY	30	30	177	748	178	71	16	100%	5.9	23.8%	9.4%	14.3%	2.2%	3.89	3.85	+2.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYY	29	29	174	737	175	70	16	100%	6.0	23.8%	9.5%	14.3%	2.2%	3.89	3.89	+2.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	NYY	29	29	174	737	174	71	17	100%	6.0	23.6%	9.7%	14.0%	2.3%	3.94	3.97	+1.9
2033	29	MLB MLE	NYY	28	28	167	703	165	70	17	100%	6.0	23.4%	9.9%	13.5%	2.5%	4.04	4.11	+1.6
2034	30	MLB MLE	NYY	26	26	157	661	152	67	18	100%	6.0	23.1%	10.2%	12.9%	2.7%	4.19	4.28	+1.1
2035	31	MLB MLE	NYY	24	24	146	616	140	65	18	100%	6.1	22.7%	10.5%	12.1%	2.9%	4.37	4.48	+0.7
2036	32	MLB MLE	NYY	23	23	135	570	127	62	18	100%	5.9	22.2%	10.9%	11.3%	3.1%	4.57	4.71	+0.3
2037	33	MLB MLE	NYY	21	21	124	524	114	60	18	100%	5.9	21.7%	11.4%	10.3%	3.4%	4.80	4.96	-0.1
2038	34	MLB MLE	NYY	19	19	113	476	101	57	18	100%	5.9	21.1%	11.9%	9.3%	3.7%	5.06	5.24	-0.4
2027	23	MLB CTX	NYY	31	31	165	697	158	75	15	100%	5.3	22.7%	10.7%	12.0%	2.2%	4.22	4.13	+1.7
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYY	30	30	166	701	163	70	16	100%	5.5	23.3%	10.0%	13.3%	2.2%	4.10	4.01	+1.9
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYY	29	29	168	709	168	68	16	100%	5.8	23.6%	9.5%	14.1%	2.3%	4.01	3.95	+2.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYY	28	28	168	709	169	67	16	100%	6.0	23.8%	9.4%	14.3%	2.3%	3.97	3.93	+2.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYY	28	28	166	701	167	67	17	100%	5.9	23.8%	9.5%	14.3%	2.4%	3.97	3.97	+2.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	NYY	28	28	166	701	166	68	17	100%	5.9	23.6%	9.7%	14.0%	2.5%	4.03	4.06	+1.8
2033	29	MLB CTX	NYY	26	26	158	667	156	66	18	100%	6.1	23.4%	9.9%	13.5%	2.6%	4.13	4.20	+1.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	NYY	25	25	149	629	145	64	18	100%	6.0	23.1%	10.2%	12.9%	2.8%	4.29	4.38	+1.1
2035	31	MLB CTX	NYY	23	23	139	587	133	62	18	100%	6.0	22.7%	10.5%	12.1%	3.1%	4.48	4.59	+0.7
2036	32	MLB CTX	NYY	21	21	128	540	120	59	18	100%	6.1	22.2%	10.9%	11.3%	3.3%	4.69	4.83	+0.3
2037	33	MLB CTX	NYY	20	20	118	498	108	57	18	100%	5.9	21.7%	11.4%	10.3%	3.6%	4.93	5.09	-0.1
2038	34	MLB CTX	NYY	17	17	102	431	91	51	17	100%	6.0	21.1%	11.9%	9.3%	4.0%	5.20	5.38	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		313	313	1830	7741	1774	794	207	100%	5.8	22.9%	10.3%	12.7%	2.7%	4.29	3.93	+21.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	846	194	87	23	100%	5.8	22.9%	10.3%	12.7%	2.7%	4.29	3.93	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		101	96	462	1922	390	227	23	95%	4.6	20.3%	11.8%	8.5%	1.2%	2.73	3.53	+15.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	42	200	833	169	98	10	95%	4.6	20.3%	11.8%	8.5%	1.2%	2.73	3.53	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Elmer Rodríguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.11	23.8%	11.7%	2.1%	—	3.95	23.2%	13.1%	526	-0.16	—	—	—
Jordan Foley R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	19.6%	12.1%	1.6%	.294	4.00	22.8%	9.3%	162	+0.16	3.21	305	90
Griffin Canning R 2018 · 3.69 FIP	22	SP	3.69	21.8%	10.0%	2.1%	.312	4.19	23.9%	15.3%	225	+0.50	3.60	801	88
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	88
Aaron Davenport R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SP	4.81	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	4.95	16.7%	5.5%	391	+0.14	4.04	498	87
Trent Baker R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	23	SP	4.05	19.3%	10.7%	2.2%	.315	4.07	17.9%	9.5%	296	+0.02	3.88	490	87
David Festa R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	22	SP	3.67	19.9%	9.5%	1.9%	.275	3.73	26.0%	17.0%	302	+0.06	3.67	405	87
Max Meyer R 2021 · 3.68 FIP	22	SP	3.68	22.0%	10.6%	2.0%	.301	4.56	22.0%	13.7%	173	+0.88	3.37	450	86
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	86
Cory Lewis R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	22	SP	3.43	21.7%	9.3%	1.8%	.267	5.06	21.6%	7.5%	229	+1.63	3.43	330	86
Mike Ruff R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP	4.00	18.5%	12.4%	1.6%	.301	5.73	16.0%	5.0%	185	+1.73	4.00	260	86
Shelby Lackey R 2019 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.98	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.47	2.92	175	85
Justin Lewis R 2019 · 3.31 FIP	23	SP	3.31	19.6%	10.1%	1.1%	.323	6.84	19.3%	6.2%	98	+3.53	3.31	213	85
Reese Olson R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	22	SP	4.14	20.2%	13.2%	1.9%	.284	3.75	24.1%	16.0%	372	-0.39	3.03	640	85
Adrian Florencio R 2021 · 3.08 FIP	22	SP	3.08	22.0%	9.0%	1.3%	.270	6.58	16.2%	2.5%	58	+3.50	3.08	153	85
Tyler Skulina R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	18.3%	11.6%	2.3%	.242	5.34	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+1.06	4.28	222	85
Mason Hickman R 2021 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP	4.69	20.2%	10.2%	3.7%	.288	5.37	23.7%	10.9%	181	+0.68	4.69	300	84
Curtis Taylor R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.55	2.58	408	84
Spencer Howard R 2018 · 3.36 FIP	22	SP	3.36	23.4%	10.2%	1.7%	.349	3.40	25.1%	16.1%	163	+0.04	2.33	484	84
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	84
Jordan Romano R 2016 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	18.1%	10.8%	1.4%	.240	3.95	19.3%	10.1%	328	+0.26	2.40	687	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.0	153	23.1%	10.3%	0.97	4.18
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67