Kyle Harrison

P Milwaukee Brewers

Age 25 LHP 6'2" / 216 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.4 · 2028

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MLBSF	24	24	124	4.56	4.10	22.2%	7.9%	1.9
2025	23	MIX2 levels	29	24	112	3.78	3.41	25.3%	9.6%	2.7	K 22.8% · BB 8.9% · FIP 3.62
2026	24	MIX2 levels	29	25	121	4.01	3.80	27.9%	7.4%	2.3	K 27.9% · BB 7.1% · FIP 3.72
2027PROJ	25	MLBMIL	14	14	81	4.18	4.14	25.5%	7.7%	1.2
2028PROJ95% MLB	26	MLBMIL	14	14	86	4.24	4.22	25.6%	7.7%	1.3
2029PROJ95% MLB	27	MLBMIL	14	14	83	4.25	4.26	25.6%	7.7%	1.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 6.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.593First FA2031

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Arb-1$3M2029Arb-2$5M2030Arb-3$6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%81

FB Velo54

xwOBA vs54

Form16.05 ERA (proj 4.18) · K 17.1% (proj 25.5%) · BB 11.0% (proj 7.7%) ▼▼ last 60d · 12 IP through Oct 27

CompsEduardo Rodriguez (age 25) · Reid Detmers (age 25) · Sean Manaea (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 92101vR 109

ERA4.18

FIP4.14

K%25.5%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%17.9%

Proj IP81

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$24M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5494.8

Whiff%

p6727.9%

p8127.9%

xwOBA vs

p540.308

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.593 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$10M	+$9M
2028	Arb-1	$3M	+1.3	$10M	+$7M
2029	Arb-2	$5M	+1.2	$8M	+$5M
2030	Arb-3	$6M	+1.1	$7M	+$2M
Totals		$15M		$35M	+$23M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	A MLE	San Jose Giants	23	23	99	440	157	52	3	100%	4.3	26.4%	13.9%	12.5%	0.9%	3.19	3.12	—
2021	19	A RAW	San Jose Giants	23	23	99	440	157	52	3	100%	4.3	35.7%	11.8%	23.9%	0.7%	3.19	1.89	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	113	467	186	49	13	100%	4.5	31.8%	11.6%	20.1%	3.5%	2.71	3.83	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	113	467	186	49	13	100%	4.5	39.8%	10.5%	29.3%	2.8%	2.71	2.60	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	28	102	448	144	59	18	100%	3.7	28.3%	12.3%	16.1%	4.3%	4.40	4.63	+0.9
2023	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	28	102	448	144	59	18	100%	3.7	32.1%	13.2%	19.0%	4.0%	4.40	4.30	+1.3
2024	22	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	24	24	124	532	118	42	18	100%	5.2	22.2%	7.9%	14.3%	3.7%	4.56	4.23	+1.7
2024	22	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	24	24	124	532	118	42	18	100%	5.2	22.2%	7.9%	14.3%	3.7%	4.56	4.23	+1.7
2024	22	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	24	24	124	532	118	42	18	100%	5.2	22.2%	7.9%	14.3%	3.4%	4.56	4.10	+1.9
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	24	112	499	126	48	11	83%	3.9	22.8%	8.9%	13.9%	2.4%	3.78	3.62	+2.4
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	24	112	499	126	48	11	83%	3.9	22.8%	8.9%	13.9%	2.4%	3.78	3.62	+2.4
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	24	112	499	126	48	11	83%	3.9	25.3%	9.6%	15.6%	2.2%	3.78	3.41	+2.7
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	25	121	524	146	39	20	86%	4.2	27.9%	7.1%	20.8%	3.8%	4.01	3.72	+2.5
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	25	121	524	146	39	20	86%	4.2	27.9%	7.1%	20.8%	3.8%	4.01	3.72	+2.5
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	25	121	524	146	39	20	86%	4.2	27.9%	7.4%	20.4%	3.8%	4.01	3.80	+2.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			70	61	310	1340	332	102	50	87%	4.4	24.8%	7.6%	17.2%	3.7%	4.32	4.04	+5.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	MIL	14	14	81	342	87	26	11	100%	5.8	25.5%	7.7%	17.9%	3.4%	4.18	4.14	+1.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	91	384	98	29	13	100%	6.1	25.6%	7.7%	18.0%	3.4%	4.15	4.13	+1.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	88	371	95	29	13	100%	5.9	25.6%	7.7%	17.9%	3.4%	4.16	4.17	+1.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIL	14	14	84	356	91	28	12	100%	6.0	25.5%	7.9%	17.6%	3.5%	4.21	4.25	+1.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIL	13	13	76	321	80	26	12	100%	5.8	24.9%	8.1%	16.8%	3.7%	4.33	4.41	+0.9
2032	30	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	65	275	67	23	11	100%	5.9	24.2%	8.4%	15.8%	3.9%	4.50	4.62	+0.6
2033	31	MLB MLE	MIL	9	9	53	223	52	20	9	100%	5.9	23.5%	8.8%	14.7%	4.1%	4.71	4.85	+0.3
2034	32	MLB MLE	MIL	7	7	40	168	38	15	7	100%	5.7	22.7%	9.2%	13.5%	4.3%	4.95	5.10	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	86	363	93	28	13	100%	6.1	25.6%	7.7%	18.0%	3.5%	4.24	4.22	+1.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	83	350	90	27	13	100%	5.9	25.6%	7.7%	17.9%	3.6%	4.25	4.26	+1.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIL	13	13	80	338	86	27	12	100%	6.2	25.5%	7.9%	17.6%	3.7%	4.31	4.35	+1.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	72	304	76	25	12	100%	6.0	24.9%	8.1%	16.8%	3.8%	4.43	4.51	+0.8
2032	30	MLB CTX	MIL	10	10	62	262	63	22	11	100%	6.2	24.2%	8.4%	15.8%	4.0%	4.61	4.73	+0.6
2033	31	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	50	211	50	18	9	100%	6.2	23.5%	8.8%	14.7%	4.3%	4.82	4.96	+0.3
2034	32	MLB CTX	MIL	6	6	38	160	36	15	7	100%	6.3	22.7%	9.2%	13.5%	4.5%	5.07	5.22	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		149	140	782	3332	827	264	127	94%	5.2	24.8%	7.9%	16.9%	3.8%	4.40	4.09	+12.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	36	200	852	211	68	32	94%	5.3	24.8%	7.9%	16.9%	3.8%	4.40	4.09	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		158	149	672	2910	769	295	91	94%	4.3	26.4%	10.1%	16.3%	3.1%	3.79	3.86	+10.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	44	200	867	229	88	27	94%	4.3	26.4%	10.1%	16.3%	3.1%	3.79	3.86	+2.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 76 IPFIP 3.35 → 3.65 (+0.31)K% 25.7% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.66%	—	×0.860	22.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.20%	—	×0.900	9.18%
HR / BF /BF	2.04%	÷0.984	×1.100	2.28%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).

Result: FIP 3.35 → 3.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASacramento River Cats · 66 IPFIP 4.02 → 4.31 (+0.29)K% 35.6% → 30.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.59%	—	×0.860	30.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.27%	—	×0.900	14.64%
HR / BF /BF	3.39%	÷1.057	×1.100	3.53%

Result: FIP 4.02 → 4.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 84 IPFIP 3.17 → 4.40 (+1.23)K% 36.4% → 29.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.39%	—	×0.810	29.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.17%	—	×1.100	12.29%
HR / BF /BF	3.15%	÷0.929	×1.200	4.07%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 86).

Result: FIP 3.17 → 4.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Eugene Emeralds · 29 IPFIP 0.88 → 2.12 (+1.24)K% 50.0% → 38.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	50.00%	—	×0.770	38.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.47%	—	×1.150	9.75%
HR / BF /BF	1.69%	÷1.120	×1.250	1.89%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 124).

Result: FIP 0.88 → 2.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ASan Jose Giants · 99 IPFIP 1.96 → 3.12 (+1.16)K% 35.7% → 26.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.68%	—	×0.740	26.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.82%	—	×1.180	13.95%
HR / BF /BF	0.68%	÷1.008	×1.300	0.88%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 1.96 → 3.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyle Harrison (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.4%	—	4.18	25.6%	17.8%	263	+0.04	—	—	—
Eduardo Rodriguez L 2018 · 3.51 FIP	25	SP	3.51	26.4%	8.0%	3.0%	.297	3.48	25.9%	18.1%	361	-0.03	3.25	1,596	79
Reid Detmers L 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	26.6%	8.5%	5.4%	.340	2.87	28.9%	22.1%	249	-2.04	2.77	766	65
Sean Manaea L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	25	SP	3.95	20.2%	7.8%	2.9%	.310	3.95	20.5%	15.7%	272	-0.00	3.28	1,511	64
Matthew Boyd L 2016 · 4.27 FIP	25	SP	4.27	19.7%	7.0%	3.6%	.276	4.23	24.1%	17.0%	542	-0.04	2.22	1,457	64
David Peterson L 2021 · 4.46 FIP	25	SP	4.46	24.0%	10.1%	3.8%	.298	3.63	24.2%	14.2%	401	-0.83	2.81	1,078	63
Daniel Lynch IV L 2022 · 4.52 FIP	25	SP	4.52	20.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.329	4.41	17.1%	10.2%	303	-0.11	2.21	764	63
Tyler Skaggs L 2016 · 3.18 FIP	25	SP	3.18	26.1%	9.2%	2.1%	.300	3.72	23.0%	15.2%	290	+0.54	3.18	553	63
Parker Messick L 2024 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	23.8%	9.1%	2.1%	.302	3.09	25.2%	18.3%	325	-0.27	2.97	580	63
Tarik Skubal L 2022 · 2.96 FIP	25	SP	2.96	24.5%	6.7%	2.0%	.298	2.18	31.5%	27.0%	468	-0.78	1.63	1,048	62
Ben Shields L 2024 · 3.23 FIP	25	SP-	3.23	25.3%	8.2%	2.2%	.273	3.02	23.5%	13.3%	43	-0.21	3.02	147	62
Sean Newcomb L 2018 · 4.03 FIP	25	SP	4.03	23.0%	11.5%	2.6%	.272	3.63	24.5%	13.9%	152	-0.40	2.76	1,030	62
Joey Lucchesi L 2018 · 4.06 FIP	25	SP	4.06	26.5%	7.5%	4.1%	.301	3.83	23.6%	15.6%	202	-0.23	3.12	817	62
Colton Gordon L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	25	SP	3.89	20.4%	6.7%	3.0%	.286	4.69	18.3%	13.4%	281	+0.80	2.73	586	62
Connelly Early L 2024 · 3.33 FIP	22	SP	3.33	24.1%	9.8%	1.9%	.292	3.28	26.0%	17.0%	214	-0.05	2.52	318	61
Anthony Veneziano L 2023 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	19.4%	8.0%	3.1%	.292	4.51	17.5%	8.3%	190	+0.30	4.18	539	61
Cody Reed L 2018 · 3.89 FIP	25	SP-	3.89	21.2%	7.3%	3.0%	.320	3.73	25.4%	13.4%	33	-0.16	2.90	572	61
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	61
Hunter Barco L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	23.4%	10.0%	2.2%	.275	3.72	21.1%	10.0%	195	+0.11	3.29	257	60
Daniel Norris L 2018 · 4.44 FIP	25	SP-	4.44	25.5%	9.5%	4.2%	.311	4.30	21.7%	14.1%	229	-0.14	2.81	821	60
Francisco Liriano L 2009 · 4.65 FIP	25	SP	4.65	20.0%	10.7%	3.5%	.314	3.53	23.0%	12.8%	483	-1.12	2.43	1,814	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	74	24.9%	7.9%	1.41	4.33
Joe Price ('80-'90, 7 WAR*)	4.5	82	23.3%*	8.8%*	1.49*	4.15*
Pete Richert ('62-'74, 13 WAR*)	5.8	90	24.4%*	8.8%*	1.26*	4.04*
Daniel Norris ('23)	2.9	73	21.5%	8.9%	1.39	4.73
Carlos Villanueva ('16)	5.0	91	20.4%	7.6%	1.25	4.31
Scott Bankhead ('86-'95, 10 WAR*)	4.5	100	21.2%*	7.3%*	1.36*	4.16*
Brett Cecil ('18)	3.8	76	20.7%	8.3%	1.14	4.29