Kyle Harrison
P
Milwaukee Brewers
+0.4
WAR
Age 24
LHP
6'2" / 216 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 0.5 · 2027
ERA4.37
FIP4.36
xFIP4.21
SIERA4.00
K%23.3%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%14.0%
IP75
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2027
K†5555
FB Velo
p5194.6
Whiff%
p5225.6%
K%
p5723.4%
xwOBA vs
p330.332
SL+0.7 (28%)
SI (2%)
CU (28%)
FB (60%)
CH-1.6 (12%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | A | San Jose Giants | 23 | 23 | 99 | 440 | 157 | 52 | 3 | 26.4% | 13.9% | 0.9% | 3.19 | 3.12 | +2.4 |
| 2022 | 20 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 25 | 25 | 113 | 467 | 186 | 49 | 13 | 31.8% | 11.6% | 3.5% | 2.71 | 3.80 | +1.9 |
| 2023 | 21 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 28 | 28 | 102 | 448 | 144 | 59 | 18 | 28.8% | 13.9% | 4.1% | 4.40 | 4.69 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 22 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 24 | 24 | 124 | 532 | 118 | 42 | 18 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 3.8% | 4.56 | 4.30 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 29 | 24 | 112 | 499 | 126 | 48 | 11 | 23.1% | 10.0% | 2.3% | 3.78 | 3.70 | +2.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 3 | 3 | 15 | 60 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 25.0% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 3.07 | 3.66 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | MIL | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 53 | 21 | 7 | 22.9% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 3.95 | 4.03 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 69 | 291 | 68 | 25 | 9 | 23.4% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 3.76 | 3.95 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 12 | 12 | 65 | 276 | 64 | 24 | 9 | 23.1% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 4.36 | 4.37 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 61 | 256 | 59 | 23 | 8 | 23.2% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 4.36 | 4.37 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 55 | 21 | 7 | 23.2% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 51 | — | 51 | 217 | 50 | 19 | 7 | 23.2% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 4.39 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 45 | 18 | 6 | 22.7% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 42 | — | 42 | 177 | 39 | 16 | 6 | 22.1% | 9.1% | 3.3% | 4.52 | 4.57 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 38 | — | 38 | 159 | 34 | 15 | 5 | 21.5% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 4.61 | 4.67 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 34 | — | 34 | 142 | 30 | 13 | 5 | 20.9% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 4.72 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 30 | — | 30 | 126 | 26 | 12 | 4 | 20.3% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 4.84 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 132 | 127 | 565 | 2446 | 642 | 274 | 72 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 3.73 | 3.93 | +8.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 45 | 200 | 866 | 227 | 97 | 25 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 3.73 | 3.93 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kyle Harrison (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.50 | 22.3% | 9.3% | 3.1% | — | 4.37 | 23.2% | 14.3% | 182 | -0.13 | — | — | — |
| Haylen Green L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.98 | 16.9% | 8.1% | 2.3% | .291 | 4.09 | 18.6% | 7.8% | 49 | +0.11 | 3.98 | 104 | 76 |
| Cam Alldred L 2025 · 4.61 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.61 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .323 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 7.9% | 132 | -0.37 | 3.70 | 332 | 76 |
| Mac Lardner L 2026 · 5.07 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.07 | 17.4% | 9.4% | 4.1% | .318 | 3.70 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 62 | -1.37 | 3.70 | 186 | 75 |
| Dylan Lee L 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 19.5% | 8.5% | 3.4% | .277 | 2.55 | 29.0% | 25.0% | 113 | -1.87 | 2.48 | 484 | 75 |
| Brennan Bernardino L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.13 | 17.7% | 10.4% | 2.2% | .326 | 3.79 | 21.8% | 13.0% | 94 | -0.34 | 2.52 | 406 | 75 |
| Billy Strode L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.68 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .306 | 2.85 | 16.0% | 7.3% | 47 | -0.83 | 2.51 | 155 | 75 |
| James Paxton L 2028 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .288 | 2.87 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.44 | 2.40 | 924 | 75 |
| Shane McCain L 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.38 | 18.3% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .261 | 5.05 | 14.2% | 10.7% | 51 | +0.67 | 4.31 | 201 | 74 |
| Diego Barrera L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.72 | 17.9% | 9.2% | 1.8% | .310 | 3.67 | 18.5% | 9.7% | 44 | -0.05 | 3.67 | 111 | 74 |
| Gerardo Concepción L 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.50 | 16.9% | 10.4% | 2.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.50 | 104 | 73 |
| Jordan Harrison L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.03 | 15.6% | 9.0% | 2.0% | .263 | 4.14 | 16.3% | 0.5% | 152 | +0.11 | 3.82 | 244 | 73 |
| Irwin Delgado L 2028 · 4.74 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.74 | 14.4% | 9.6% | 3.0% | .349 | 3.52 | 16.2% | 7.6% | 237 | -1.22 | 3.50 | 383 | 73 |
| Braulio Lara L 2028 · 3.98 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.98 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .367 | 5.21 | 18.9% | 3.9% | 67 | +1.23 | 3.98 | 118 | 73 |
| Bryan Harper L 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.91 | 15.2% | 9.4% | 3.5% | .236 | 4.42 | 17.1% | 5.3% | 92 | -0.49 | 4.19 | 133 | 73 |
| Sean Mellen L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 101 | 72 |
| Andre Wheeler L 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.27 | 17.5% | 12.1% | 3.8% | .347 | 4.95 | 14.4% | 2.4% | 29 | -0.32 | 3.81 | 150 | 72 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.88 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.4% | .260 | 4.75 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 185 | +0.87 | 3.88 | 256 | 72 |
| Hayden Howard L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.83 | 17.9% | 9.6% | 1.9% | .295 | 3.76 | 17.5% | 9.1% | 61 | -0.07 | 3.76 | 200 | 72 |
| Joe Kemlage L 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.32 | 17.6% | 11.7% | 4.0% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 128 | 72 |
| Yoely Bello L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.14 | 13.8% | 9.1% | 1.9% | .254 | 5.10 | 10.8% | -1.6% | 35 | +0.96 | 4.14 | 103 | 72 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2023
Service 1.593 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.8M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.5M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.2M |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $6M | $8M | +$3M | ||