Kyle Harrison — OGILVIE

Kyle Harrison P Milwaukee Brewers

Age 24 LHP 6'2" / 216 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.9 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION116 act + 10 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8593vR 101

ERA3.61

FIP3.65

K%26.4%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%18.6%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 126 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$9M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†5560

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5294.7

Whiff%

p6728.0%

p8228.2%

xwOBA vs

p590.303

SL+0.7 (32%)

SI (2%)

CU (32%)

FB (59%)

CH-1.6 (9%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 1.593 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.6M	+$0.5M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$3M
2028	Arb-1	$4M	+1.0	$7M	+$4M
2029	Arb-2	$7M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-3	$10M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$16M	+$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	A MLE	San Jose Giants	23	23	99	440	157	52	3	100%	4.3	26.4%	13.9%	12.5%	0.9%	3.19	3.12	—
2021	19	A RAW	San Jose Giants	23	23	99	440	157	52	3	100%	4.3	35.7%	11.8%	23.9%	0.7%	3.19	1.89	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	113	467	186	49	13	100%	4.5	31.8%	11.6%	20.1%	3.5%	2.71	3.83	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	113	467	186	49	13	100%	4.5	39.8%	10.5%	29.3%	2.8%	2.71	2.60	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	28	102	448	144	59	18	100%	3.7	27.6%	12.3%	15.4%	4.3%	4.40	4.69	+0.3
2023	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	28	102	448	144	59	18	100%	3.7	27.6%	12.3%	15.4%	4.3%	4.40	4.69	+0.3
2023	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	28	102	448	144	59	18	100%	3.7	32.1%	13.2%	19.0%	4.0%	4.40	4.30	+0.7
2024	22	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	24	24	124	532	118	42	18	100%	5.2	22.2%	7.9%	14.3%	3.7%	4.56	4.23	+1.0
2024	22	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	24	24	124	532	118	42	18	100%	5.2	22.2%	7.9%	14.3%	3.7%	4.56	4.23	+1.0
2024	22	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	24	24	124	532	118	42	18	100%	5.2	22.2%	7.9%	14.3%	3.4%	4.56	4.10	+1.2
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	24	112	499	126	48	11	83%	3.9	22.3%	8.9%	13.3%	2.4%	3.78	3.66	+1.7
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	24	112	499	126	48	11	83%	3.9	22.3%	8.9%	13.3%	2.4%	3.78	3.66	+1.7
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	24	112	499	126	48	11	83%	3.9	25.3%	9.6%	15.6%	2.2%	3.78	3.41	+2.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			66	60	305	1310	325	99	50	91%	4.6	24.8%	7.6%	17.3%	3.8%	4.24	4.07	+3.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	25	24	116	494	139	36	20	96%	4.7	28.2%	6.9%	21.3%	4.0%	3.79	3.80	+1.5
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	25	24	116	494	139	36	20	96%	4.7	28.2%	6.9%	21.3%	4.0%	3.79	3.80	+1.5
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	MIL	1	1	6	19	5	3	0	100%	5.7	26.3%	15.8%	10.5%	0.0%	0.00	2.88	—
2026	24	MLB RAW	MIL	24	23	111	475	134	33	20	96%	4.6	28.2%	6.9%	21.3%	4.2%	3.98	3.91	+1.3
SO FAR	24	MLB RAW	MIL	24	23	111	475	134	33	20	96%	4.6	28.2%	6.9%	21.3%	4.2%	3.98	3.91	+1.3
ROS	24	MLB MLE	MIL	2	2	10	43	11	3	1	100%	5.1	26.4%	7.7%	18.6%	3.3%	3.61	3.65	+0.2
ROS	24	MLB CTX	MIL	2	2	10	42	11	3	1	100%	5.0	26.4%	7.7%	18.6%	3.4%	3.70	3.74	+0.2
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	MIL	—	—	126	537	150	39	21	—	—	28.0%	7.3%	20.7%	4.0%	3.78	3.79	+1.7
FULL	24	MLB A+C	MIL	—	—	121	510	150	39	21	—	—	29.5%	7.7%	21.8%	4.2%	3.96	3.90	+1.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	MIL	22	22	127	537	140	41	20	100%	5.8	26.0%	7.7%	18.3%	3.6%	4.25	4.25	+1.0
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIL	22	22	134	567	148	43	21	100%	6.1	26.1%	7.7%	18.4%	3.6%	4.24	4.24	+1.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIL	23	23	136	575	150	45	21	100%	5.9	26.1%	7.7%	18.3%	3.7%	4.26	4.28	+1.0
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIL	23	23	136	575	149	45	22	100%	5.9	26.0%	7.9%	18.1%	3.8%	4.32	4.36	+0.9
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIL	22	22	130	550	139	45	22	100%	5.9	25.4%	8.1%	17.3%	3.9%	4.44	4.52	+0.6
2032	30	MLB MLE	MIL	20	20	122	517	127	43	21	100%	6.1	24.7%	8.4%	16.3%	4.1%	4.61	4.73	+0.2
2033	31	MLB MLE	MIL	19	19	114	482	115	42	21	100%	6.0	23.9%	8.8%	15.2%	4.4%	4.82	4.96	-0.1
2034	32	MLB MLE	MIL	18	18	106	445	103	41	21	100%	5.9	23.1%	9.2%	14.0%	4.6%	5.06	5.22	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	MIL	21	21	121	511	133	39	19	100%	5.8	26.0%	7.7%	18.3%	3.8%	4.35	4.35	+0.9
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIL	21	21	128	540	141	41	21	100%	6.1	26.1%	7.7%	18.4%	3.8%	4.34	4.34	+1.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIL	22	22	129	545	142	42	21	100%	5.9	26.1%	7.7%	18.3%	3.9%	4.36	4.38	+0.9
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIL	22	22	129	545	141	43	22	100%	5.9	26.0%	7.9%	18.1%	4.0%	4.42	4.46	+0.8
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIL	21	21	124	524	133	42	22	100%	5.9	25.4%	8.1%	17.3%	4.1%	4.55	4.63	+0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	MIL	19	19	116	490	121	41	21	100%	6.1	24.7%	8.4%	16.3%	4.3%	4.72	4.84	+0.2
2033	31	MLB CTX	MIL	18	18	108	456	109	40	21	100%	6.0	23.9%	8.8%	15.2%	4.6%	4.94	5.08	-0.1
2034	32	MLB CTX	MIL	17	17	100	422	98	39	20	100%	5.9	23.1%	9.2%	14.0%	4.8%	5.19	5.35	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		228	222	1272	5390	1355	431	219	97%	5.6	25.1%	8.0%	17.2%	4.1%	4.50	4.22	+10.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	35	200	848	213	68	34	97%	5.6	25.1%	8.0%	17.2%	4.1%	4.50	4.22	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		154	148	667	2880	757	292	91	96%	4.3	26.3%	10.1%	16.2%	3.2%	3.75	3.89	+7.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	44	200	864	227	87	27	96%	4.3	26.3%	10.1%	16.2%	3.2%	3.75	3.89	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyle Harrison (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.44	22.0%	8.7%	3.1%	—	4.26	26.1%	18.4%	398	-0.18	—	—	—
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	69
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.36	19.1%	13.6%	214	-0.05	3.32	277	68
Riley Frey L 2023 · 4.00 FIP	21	SP	4.00	22.5%	7.5%	3.4%	.417	4.47	18.0%	10.8%	184	+0.47	3.87	202	66
Joe Rock L 2023 · 4.44 FIP	23	SP	4.44	22.1%	8.9%	3.8%	.335	4.16	18.8%	10.4%	289	-0.28	3.82	486	64
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	64
Tyson Guerrero L 2023 · 4.26 FIP	24	SP	4.26	23.9%	9.8%	3.5%	.279	4.67	19.4%	7.6%	142	+0.41	4.26	250	63
Brock Burke L 2021 · 4.62 FIP	24	SP	4.62	25.4%	9.7%	4.4%	.323	3.58	23.9%	17.6%	196	-1.04	3.07	791	62
Ryan Rolison L 2021 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP	3.81	21.5%	6.9%	3.0%	.320	5.21	14.5%	9.5%	35	+1.40	3.81	386	62
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	62
Parker Mushinski L 2019 · 3.57 FIP	23	SP-	3.57	21.6%	8.2%	2.3%	.303	3.67	23.3%	13.3%	106	+0.10	3.11	455	62
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	62
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	61
Carson Palmquist L 2023 · 4.37 FIP	22	SP	4.37	26.7%	10.8%	3.9%	.324	4.46	21.1%	8.9%	288	+0.09	3.84	380	61
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	61
Matt Moore L 2015 · 4.17 FIP	26	SP	4.17	21.9%	7.8%	3.5%	.323	4.44	19.7%	11.3%	475	+0.27	2.80	861	61
James Paxton L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	26	SP	4.22	18.9%	9.4%	2.8%	.288	2.95	27.7%	21.7%	468	-1.27	2.46	924	61
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	61
Carlos Rodón L 2017 · 4.23 FIP	24	SP	4.23	23.6%	10.6%	3.2%	.305	4.05	21.5%	10.8%	168	-0.18	2.21	1,371	60
Trevor Rogers L 2022 · 4.24 FIP	24	SP	4.24	22.2%	9.4%	3.3%	.325	3.57	20.3%	12.4%	310	-0.67	2.33	939	60
Shane Murphy L 2023 · 5.21 FIP	22	SP	5.21	18.9%	7.1%	5.1%	.272	4.94	15.7%	10.6%	358	-0.27	4.00	455	60

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.4	120	25.0%	8.2%	1.51	4.47
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38
Domingo Germán ('24)	2.6	88	24.4%	7.4%	1.65	4.58