Kyle Harrison
P
Milwaukee Brewers
Age 24
LHP
6'2" / 216 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 1.4 · 2028
ILInjured 15-Day (D15)
2026 ROS PROJECTION84 act + 56 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7483vR 92
ERA3.38
FIP3.45
K%27.0%
BB%7.6%
K-BB%19.4%
ROS IP56
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 139 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5795.0
Whiff%
p7429.0%
K%
p9029.6%
xwOBA vs
p860.277
SL+0.7 (31%)
SI (2%)
CU (31%)
FB (60%)
CH-1.6 (10%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | A | San Jose Giants | 23 | 23 | 99 | 440 | 157 | 52 | 3 | 100% | 4.3 | 26.4% | 13.9% | 12.5% | 0.9% | 3.19 | 3.12 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A | San Jose Giants | 23 | 23 | 99 | 440 | 157 | 52 | 3 | 100% | 4.3 | 35.7% | 11.8% | 23.9% | 0.7% | 3.19 | 1.89 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 113 | 467 | 186 | 49 | 13 | 100% | 4.5 | 31.8% | 11.6% | 20.1% | 3.7% | 2.71 | 3.94 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 113 | 467 | 186 | 49 | 13 | 100% | 4.5 | 39.8% | 10.5% | 29.3% | 2.8% | 2.71 | 2.60 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 28 | 102 | 448 | 144 | 59 | 18 | 100% | 3.7 | 28.8% | 13.9% | 14.9% | 4.2% | 4.40 | 4.73 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 28 | 102 | 448 | 144 | 59 | 18 | 100% | 3.7 | 32.1% | 13.2% | 19.0% | 4.0% | 4.40 | 4.30 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 22 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 24 | 24 | 124 | 532 | 118 | 42 | 18 | 100% | 5.2 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 14.3% | 3.7% | 4.56 | 4.25 | +1.7 |
| 2024 | 22 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 24 | 24 | 124 | 532 | 118 | 42 | 18 | 100% | 5.2 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 14.3% | 3.4% | 4.56 | 4.10 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 24 | 112 | 499 | 126 | 48 | 11 | 83% | 3.9 | 23.1% | 10.0% | 13.2% | 2.4% | 3.78 | 3.72 | +2.2 |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 24 | 112 | 499 | 126 | 48 | 11 | 83% | 3.9 | 25.3% | 9.6% | 15.6% | 2.2% | 3.78 | 3.41 | +2.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 17 | 17 | 84 | 341 | 101 | 20 | 10 | 100% | 4.9 | 29.6% | 5.9% | 23.8% | 2.9% | 3.01 | 2.95 | +2.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | MIL | 10 | 10 | 56 | 236 | 64 | 18 | 7 | 100% | 5.6 | 27.0% | 7.6% | 19.4% | 3.0% | 3.38 | 3.45 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | MIL | 10 | 10 | 56 | 236 | 64 | 18 | 7 | 100% | 5.6 | 27.0% | 7.6% | 19.4% | 3.0% | 3.35 | 3.42 | +0.7 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 139 | 577 | 165 | 38 | 17 | — | — | 28.5% | 6.6% | 22.0% | 3.0% | 3.16 | 3.15 | +3.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 139 | 589 | 165 | 38 | 17 | — | — | 28.0% | 6.4% | 21.5% | 2.9% | 3.15 | 3.14 | +3.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 12 | 12 | 70 | 297 | 78 | 22 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.4% | 7.6% | 18.8% | 3.0% | 3.86 | 3.87 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 12 | 12 | 70 | 297 | 79 | 22 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.5% | 7.6% | 18.9% | 3.0% | 3.86 | 3.86 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 12 | 12 | 69 | 292 | 77 | 22 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 26.5% | 7.7% | 18.8% | 3.1% | 3.89 | 3.90 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 75 | 22 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 26.4% | 7.8% | 18.6% | 3.2% | 3.95 | 3.99 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 64 | 271 | 70 | 22 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.8% | 8.0% | 17.7% | 3.3% | 4.07 | 4.15 | +0.4 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 75 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 26.4% | 7.6% | 18.8% | 3.0% | 3.83 | 3.84 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 75 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 26.5% | 7.6% | 18.9% | 3.0% | 3.83 | 3.83 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 66 | 279 | 74 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.5% | 7.7% | 18.8% | 3.0% | 3.86 | 3.87 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 71 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 26.4% | 7.8% | 18.6% | 3.1% | 3.92 | 3.96 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 66 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.8% | 8.0% | 17.7% | 3.3% | 4.03 | 4.11 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 125 | 120 | 658 | 2779 | 716 | 210 | 89 | 96% | 5.3 | 25.7% | 7.5% | 18.2% | 3.2% | 3.88 | 3.64 | +13.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 36 | 200 | 845 | 218 | 64 | 27 | 96% | 5.3 | 25.7% | 7.5% | 18.2% | 3.2% | 3.88 | 3.64 | +4.1 | ||
| Career | — | 146 | 141 | 634 | 2727 | 728 | 290 | 82 | 97% | 4.3 | 26.7% | 10.6% | 16.1% | 3.0% | 3.65 | 3.83 | +11.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 44 | 200 | 860 | 230 | 91 | 26 | 97% | 4.3 | 26.7% | 10.6% | 16.1% | 3.0% | 3.65 | 3.83 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kyle Harrison (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 22.4% | 9.3% | 3.1% | — | 3.88 | 26.5% | 18.9% | 210 | -0.61 | — | — | — |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.71 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 4.2% | .298 | 4.64 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.07 | 3.39 | 300 | 67 |
| Dalton Pence L 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.89 | 22.0% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 153 | 67 |
| Jackson Kent L 2025 · 3.80 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.80 | 23.2% | 7.8% | 3.0% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 197 | 64 |
| Zach Thornton L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 20.9% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 221 | 63 |
| Brycen Mautz L 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.64 | 23.2% | 7.8% | 2.8% | .281 | 4.54 | 19.8% | 2.8% | 69 | +0.90 | 3.61 | 409 | 62 |
| Mason Molina L 2025 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.56 | 23.3% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 165 | 62 |
| Joe Whitman L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.35 | 22.9% | 6.9% | 2.4% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 302 | 62 |
| Evan Lee L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.00 | 24.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .333 | 4.48 | 21.0% | 2.7% | 52 | +0.48 | 3.84 | 129 | 62 |
| Tyson Guerrero L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.20 | 23.9% | 9.8% | 3.4% | .279 | 4.62 | 18.9% | 7.3% | 123 | +0.42 | 4.20 | 231 | 62 |
| Parker Mushinski L 2025 · 3.61 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.61 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .303 | 3.72 | 23.3% | 13.3% | 106 | +0.11 | 3.21 | 439 | 62 |
| A.J. Block L 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.68 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .262 | 5.86 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.18 | 3.64 | 203 | 62 |
| Gage Jump L 2025 · 3.32 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.32 | 26.1% | 9.4% | 2.2% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 199 | 62 |
| Ryan Rolison L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.63 | 21.5% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .320 | 5.03 | 15.4% | 9.5% | 35 | +1.40 | 3.63 | 362 | 62 |
| Cesar Perdomo L 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.86 | 24.4% | 8.2% | 3.2% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.07 | 372 | 61 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.89 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.89 | 176 | 61 |
| Matt Moore L 2028 · 4.18 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.18 | 21.9% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .323 | 4.45 | 19.7% | 11.3% | 475 | +0.27 | 2.82 | 845 | 60 |
| James Paxton L 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.26 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .288 | 3.00 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.26 | 2.48 | 924 | 60 |
| Tyler Switalski L 2025 · 5.33 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.33 | 22.9% | 10.6% | 5.1% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 171 | 60 |
| Sebastian Gongora L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.81 | 18.5% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 152 | 60 |
| Matt Wilkinson L 2025 · 3.36 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.36 | 24.3% | 9.9% | 1.9% | .203 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 284 | 60 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 67 | 25.7% | 8.0% | 1.21 | 4.00 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Chris Devenski ('24) | 6 | 62 | 26.0% | 6.9% | 1.25 | 3.61 |
| Sergio Romo ('21) | 7 | 50 | 26.3% | 7.0% | 1.20 | 3.70 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Héctor Rondón ('20) | 6 | 53 | 25.3% | 7.1% | 1.19 | 3.48 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |