Peter Lambert

P Houston Astros

Age 30 RHP 6'2" / 208 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.7 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	26	MIX2 levels	32	18	109	5.12	4.71	19.5%	8.9%	0.9	K 18.8% · BB 8.6% · FIP 4.45
2024	27	MIX2 levels	38	7	90	5.58	3.92	21.8%	9.9%	0.7	K 20.5% · BB 9.6% · FIP 3.84
2026	29	MIX2 levels	32	31	170	3.65	3.62	23.0%	8.6%	3.7	K 22.7% · BB 8.5% · FIP 3.67
2027PROJ	30	MLBHOU	20	20	118	4.21	4.19	22.4%	8.8%	1.7
2028PROJ	31	MLBHOU	16	16	94	4.30	4.38	21.6%	9.1%	1.1
2029PROJ	32	MLBHOU	12	12	73	4.49	4.63	20.8%	9.5%	0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 5.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.984First FA2030

2027Arb-1$3M2028Arb-2$4M2029Arb-3$4M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs65

K%55

FB Velo41

Form4.55 ERA (proj 4.21) · K 23.8% (proj 22.4%) · BB 6.6% (proj 8.8%) ▲ last 60d · 28 IP through Oct 27

CompsAustin Bibens-Dirkx (age 30) · Chris Bassitt (age 30) · Miguel González (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10799vR 90

ERA4.21

FIP4.19

K%22.4%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%13.6%

Proj IP118

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 118 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$16M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4193.9

Whiff%

p5125.4%

p5523.2%

xwOBA vs

p650.297

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2019

Service 3.984 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$3M	+1.7	$14M	+$10M
2028	Arb-2	$4M	+1.1	$8M	+$5M
2029	Arb-3	$4M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$24M	+$15M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	Grand Junction Rockies	8	8	31	143	26	11	3	100%	3.9	12.4%	9.6%	2.7%	2.9%	3.45	4.89	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	Grand Junction Rockies	8	8	31	143	26	11	3	100%	3.9	18.2%	7.7%	10.5%	2.1%	3.45	3.74	—
2016	19	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	26	26	126	517	108	33	7	100%	4.8	15.5%	7.5%	7.9%	1.4%	3.93	3.53	—
2016	19	A RAW	Asheville Tourists	26	26	126	517	108	33	7	100%	4.8	20.9%	6.4%	14.5%	1.4%	3.93	2.89	—
2017	20	A+ MLE	Lancaster JetHawks	26	26	142	585	131	30	18	100%	5.5	17.2%	5.9%	11.3%	2.4%	4.17	3.71	—
2017	20	A+ RAW	Lancaster JetHawks	26	26	142	585	131	30	18	100%	5.5	22.4%	5.1%	17.3%	3.1%	4.17	3.54	—
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	148	603	106	27	11	100%	5.7	14.6%	4.8%	9.8%	1.8%	3.28	3.46	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	148	603	106	27	11	100%	5.7	17.6%	4.5%	13.1%	1.8%	3.28	3.18	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	150	677	108	49	28	100%	5.0	15.0%	7.4%	7.7%	3.8%	6.37	4.84	+1.0
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	150	677	108	49	28	100%	5.0	16.0%	7.2%	8.7%	4.1%	6.37	5.07	+0.6
2021	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	9	9	22	101	22	9	5	100%	2.4	21.8%	8.9%	12.9%	5.0%	5.82	5.11	+0.1
2021	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	9	9	22	101	22	9	5	100%	2.4	21.8%	8.9%	12.9%	5.0%	5.82	5.32	+0.0
2022	25	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	4	4	9	42	11	6	0	100%	2.2	26.2%	14.3%	11.9%	0.0%	6.23	2.70	—
2022	25	AAA RAW	Albuquerque Isotopes	4	4	9	42	11	6	0	100%	2.2	26.2%	14.3%	11.9%	0.0%	6.23	2.64	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	18	109	473	92	42	18	56%	3.4	18.8%	8.6%	10.2%	3.4%	5.12	4.45	+1.2
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	18	109	473	92	42	18	56%	3.4	19.5%	8.9%	10.6%	3.8%	5.12	4.71	+0.9
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	7	90	403	88	40	10	18%	2.4	20.5%	9.6%	10.9%	2.3%	5.58	3.84	+0.8
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	7	90	403	88	40	10	18%	2.4	20.5%	9.6%	10.9%	2.3%	5.58	3.84	+0.8
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	7	90	403	88	40	10	18%	2.4	21.8%	9.9%	11.9%	2.5%	5.58	3.92	+0.7
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	31	170	723	166	62	18	97%	5.3	22.7%	8.5%	14.2%	2.6%	3.65	3.67	+3.6
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	31	170	723	166	62	18	97%	5.3	22.7%	8.5%	14.2%	2.6%	3.65	3.67	+3.6
2026	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	31	170	723	166	62	18	97%	5.3	23.0%	8.6%	14.4%	2.5%	3.65	3.62	+3.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			103	64	399	1769	335	149	62	62%	3.9	18.9%	8.4%	10.5%	3.5%	5.32	4.56	+3.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	HOU	20	20	118	498	112	44	14	100%	5.9	22.4%	8.8%	13.6%	2.7%	4.21	4.19	+1.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	HOU	16	16	94	396	86	36	12	100%	5.9	21.6%	9.1%	12.5%	2.9%	4.34	4.42	+1.1
2029	32	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	73	307	64	29	10	100%	6.0	20.8%	9.5%	11.3%	3.2%	4.54	4.68	+0.6
2030	33	MLB MLE	HOU	9	9	54	226	45	23	8	100%	6.0	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	3.5%	4.79	4.96	+0.3
2031	34	MLB MLE	HOU	6	6	36	153	29	16	6	100%	6.0	19.1%	10.5%	8.6%	3.8%	5.07	5.26	+0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	HOU	16	16	94	397	86	36	11	100%	5.9	21.6%	9.1%	12.5%	2.9%	4.30	4.38	+1.1
2029	32	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	73	308	64	29	10	100%	6.1	20.8%	9.5%	11.3%	3.1%	4.49	4.63	+0.6
2030	33	MLB CTX	HOU	9	9	54	228	46	23	8	100%	6.0	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	3.4%	4.74	4.91	+0.3
2031	34	MLB CTX	HOU	6	6	36	152	29	16	6	100%	6.0	19.1%	10.5%	8.6%	3.7%	5.01	5.20	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		146	107	656	2851	559	253	96	73%	4.5	19.6%	8.9%	10.7%	3.4%	5.02	4.42	+7.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		44	33	200	870	171	77	29	73%	4.5	19.6%	8.9%	10.7%	3.4%	5.02	4.42	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		231	185	997	4267	757	322	111	80%	4.3	17.8%	7.5%	10.2%	2.6%	4.51	3.98	+5.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	37	200	856	152	65	22	80%	4.3	17.8%	7.5%	10.2%	2.6%	4.51	3.98	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 15 IPFIP 2.96 → 3.23 (+0.27)K% 20.3% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.34%	—	×0.860	17.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.08%	—	×0.900	4.58%
HR / BF /BF	1.69%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.86%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.96 → 3.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 29 IPFIP 3.17 → 3.41 (+0.24)K% 30.9% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.89%	—	×0.860	26.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.57%	—	×0.900	9.51%
HR / BF /BF	2.44%	÷1.096	×1.100	2.45%

Result: FIP 3.17 → 3.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 22 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.17 (+0.07)K% 21.4% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.43%	—	×0.860	18.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×0.900	12.86%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.062	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 9 IPFIP 2.70 → 3.05 (+0.36)K% 26.2% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.19%	—	×0.880	23.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×1.050	15.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.061	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 2.70 → 3.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Spokane Indians · 8 IPFIP 6.43 → 7.18 (+0.75)K% 18.4% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.42%	—	×0.770	14.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.79%	—	×1.150	18.16%
HR / BF /BF	5.26%	÷1.211	×1.250	5.43%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 142).

Result: FIP 6.43 → 7.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAHartford Yard Goats · 6 IPFIP 2.18 → 3.32 (+1.13)K% 39.1% → 31.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.13%	—	×0.810	31.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.100	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	4.35%	÷0.990	×1.200	5.27%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 2.18 → 3.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 60 IPFIP 4.35 → 4.52 (+0.17)K% 19.8% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.84%	—	×0.880	17.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.23%	—	×1.050	6.54%
HR / BF /BF	3.89%	÷1.136	×1.100	3.77%

Result: FIP 4.35 → 4.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAHartford Yard Goats · 93 IPFIP 2.68 → 3.06 (+0.38)K% 20.9% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.95%	—	×0.810	16.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.35%	—	×1.100	3.69%
HR / BF /BF	1.68%	÷1.194	×1.200	1.68%

Result: FIP 2.68 → 3.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Peter Lambert (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	4.64	21.0%	11.5%	220	+0.45	—	—	—
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	65
Chris Bassitt R 2019 · 4.20 FIP	30	SP	4.20	23.0%	7.7%	3.8%	.258	3.35	23.2%	16.9%	402	-0.85	2.92	1,596	65
Miguel González R 2014 · 4.49 FIP	30	SP	4.49	16.5%	7.5%	3.4%	.268	4.26	16.6%	9.5%	457	-0.23	3.72	905	64
Tim Adleman R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	29	SP-	5.35	20.3%	9.4%	5.1%	.276	4.30	22.8%	15.0%	117	-1.05	3.63	605	64
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	64
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	64
Merrill Kelly R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	30	SP	4.41	20.3%	6.8%	4.0%	.289	3.83	21.1%	14.8%	390	-0.58	3.60	1,170	63
Bruce Billings R 2015 · 3.09 FIP	29	SP-	3.09	15.6%	5.6%	1.1%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	121	62
Chi Chi González R 2022 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.6%	8.0%	3.0%	.315	5.33	11.2%	5.6%	122	+1.03	4.01	800	62
Jose Samayoa R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP	4.05	19.4%	7.0%	3.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	262	62
Matt Buschmann R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	31	SP	4.03	17.2%	8.7%	2.3%	.282	4.84	12.8%	4.4%	142	+0.81	4.03	277	62
Scott Richmond R 2009 · 5.11 FIP	29	SP	5.11	19.2%	9.5%	4.4%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	166	61
Adrian Sampson R 2022 · 4.22 FIP	30	SP	4.22	16.1%	6.2%	3.1%	.278	4.88	14.4%	7.0%	244	+0.66	3.23	1,012	61
Kodai Senga R 2023 · 3.40 FIP	30	SP	3.40	29.1%	11.1%	2.5%	.274	4.52	23.4%	10.8%	186	+1.12	3.40	352	61
Rolando Arrojo R 2000 · 4.47 FIP	32	SP	4.47	16.1%	8.0%	3.1%	.291	3.68	16.4%	9.2%	185	-0.79	3.50	700	61
Alfredo Simon R 2011 · 4.05 FIP	30	SP-	4.05	16.6%	6.8%	2.7%	.308	3.64	16.7%	10.2%	345	-0.41	2.83	784	61
Nate Long R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	29	SP	4.67	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	151	60
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	60
Josh Lowey R 2015 · 3.35 FIP	30	SP	3.35	21.1%	7.8%	1.9%	.311	2.30	26.7%	20.1%	231	-1.05	2.22	426	60
Jesse Chavez R 2014 · 3.84 FIP	30	SP-	3.84	21.9%	7.4%	3.0%	.296	4.31	20.6%	13.9%	362	+0.47	2.03	1,177	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	86	20.0%	9.0%	1.28	4.91
Odell Jones ('75-'88, 2 WAR*)	2.7	78	20.8%*	8.8%*	1.18*	4.62*
Brian Matusz ('16)	2.6	76	19.8%	8.7%	1.34	4.92
Ross Ohlendorf ('16)	2.9	84	17.2%	8.6%	1.38	4.82
Brad Havens ('81-'89, 2 WAR*)	3.0	84	21.0%*	9.5%*	1.43*	4.96*
Adam Conley ('21)	2.2	87	19.8%	9.4%	1.16	4.71
Shawn Hillegas ('87-'93, -0 WAR*)	2.6	86	19.6%*	10.2%*	1.24*	5.03*