Jared Jones
P
Pittsburgh Pirates
+0.6
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 24
RHP
6'0" / 211 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 2.2 · 2029
ERA4.16
FIP4.17
xFIP3.78
SIERA3.72
K%25.1%
BB%8.3%
K-BB%16.8%
IP122
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.2peak
2029
K†6565
FB Velo
p9097.3
Whiff%
p8130.2%
K%
p7226.2%
xwOBA vs
p500.312
SL+7.2 (35%)
FB+0.7 (49%)
CU (9%)
CH-4.4 (7%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 18 | 15 | 66 | 302 | 103 | 34 | 6 | 25.2% | 13.3% | 1.9% | 4.64 | 3.71 | +1.0 |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 26 | 26 | 123 | 532 | 142 | 51 | 19 | 20.6% | 11.0% | 3.4% | 4.62 | 4.60 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 21 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 26 | 25 | 126 | 529 | 146 | 50 | 12 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.3% | 3.85 | 3.65 | +2.4 |
| 2024 | 22 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 25 | 25 | 133 | 547 | 148 | 41 | 19 | 26.2% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 4.21 | 3.81 | +2.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | PIT | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 42 | 13 | 5 | 27.5% | 8.3% | 3.4% | 4.16 | 4.06 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | PIT | 25 | 25 | 135 | 571 | 159 | 47 | 19 | 27.9% | 8.2% | 3.3% | 4.07 | 4.00 | +2.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 26 | 26 | 142 | 600 | 169 | 49 | 20 | 28.1% | 8.2% | 3.3% | 4.02 | 3.98 | +2.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 26 | 26 | 145 | 613 | 172 | 50 | 21 | 28.1% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 4.00 | 3.99 | +2.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 26 | 26 | 145 | 612 | 172 | 50 | 21 | 28.1% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 4.01 | 4.02 | +2.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | PIT | 26 | 26 | 142 | 598 | 165 | 50 | 21 | 27.6% | 8.3% | 3.4% | 4.06 | 4.09 | +1.9 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | PIT | 25 | 25 | 137 | 580 | 157 | 49 | 20 | 27.0% | 8.4% | 3.5% | 4.14 | 4.19 | +1.7 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | PIT | 24 | 24 | 133 | 560 | 148 | 48 | 20 | 26.4% | 8.6% | 3.6% | 4.23 | 4.29 | +1.5 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 23 | 23 | 127 | 537 | 139 | 47 | 20 | 25.8% | 8.7% | 3.6% | 4.34 | 4.41 | +1.3 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 22 | 22 | 122 | 513 | 129 | 46 | 19 | 25.2% | 8.9% | 3.7% | 4.46 | 4.53 | +1.1 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 21 | 21 | 116 | 488 | 119 | 44 | 19 | 24.5% | 9.1% | 3.8% | 4.59 | 4.67 | +0.8 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | PIT | 20 | 20 | 109 | 460 | 109 | 43 | 18 | 23.7% | 9.3% | 3.9% | 4.73 | 4.82 | +0.6 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | PIT | 19 | 19 | 102 | 430 | 99 | 41 | 17 | 22.9% | 9.6% | 4.1% | 4.88 | 4.99 | +0.4 |
| 2039 | 37 | MLB | PIT | 17 | 17 | 94 | 399 | 88 | 39 | 17 | 22.1% | 9.8% | 4.2% | 5.05 | 5.16 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 95 | 91 | 448 | 1910 | 454 | 193 | 55 | 23.8% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 3.97 | +6.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 41 | 200 | 853 | 203 | 86 | 25 | 23.8% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 3.97 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jared Jones (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.06 | 27.5% | 8.3% | 3.4% | — | 3.99 | 28.0% | 19.8% | 422 | -0.07 | — | — | — |
| Jaden Hill R 2026 · 3.02 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.02 | 26.7% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .360 | 2.56 | 28.4% | 20.7% | 47 | -0.46 | 2.56 | 129 | 78 |
| Hansel Robles R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.76 | 28.1% | 7.8% | 3.7% | .221 | 4.21 | 24.0% | 13.5% | 214 | +0.45 | 2.71 | 469 | 75 |
| Jordan Leasure R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.45 | 31.8% | 12.1% | 4.6% | .295 | 4.80 | 26.2% | 14.8% | 96 | +0.35 | 4.45 | 193 | 72 |
| Zack Weiss R 2025 · 3.28 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.28 | 27.1% | 7.0% | 2.9% | .299 | 4.49 | 22.5% | 8.0% | 39 | +1.21 | 3.13 | 368 | 72 |
| Mason Miller R 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.05 | 27.3% | 11.5% | 1.5% | .265 | 1.83 | 43.1% | 34.0% | 127 | -1.22 | 1.79 | 160 | 71 |
| Geoff Broussard R 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.19 | 30.8% | 8.3% | 3.0% | .286 | 4.96 | 17.2% | 8.7% | 107 | +1.77 | 3.19 | 152 | 70 |
| Eli Villalobos R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.75 | 28.1% | 9.6% | 3.3% | .337 | 4.99 | 23.1% | 9.0% | 153 | +1.24 | 3.75 | 198 | 70 |
| Ryan Fernandez R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.25 | 26.0% | 7.5% | 4.4% | .358 | 3.69 | 25.2% | 15.0% | 183 | -0.56 | 2.97 | 301 | 70 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.90 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .299 | 5.28 | 22.4% | 6.5% | 121 | +1.38 | 3.90 | 158 | 69 |
| Nick Mears R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.57 | 23.8% | 11.3% | 3.7% | .301 | 3.48 | 27.7% | 14.2% | 125 | -1.09 | 3.06 | 254 | 69 |
| Isaiah Campbell R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.29 | 25.9% | 7.7% | 2.6% | .260 | 3.79 | 20.9% | 12.4% | 127 | +0.50 | 3.29 | 192 | 68 |
| Shea Spitzbarth R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.51 | 26.1% | 9.2% | 2.7% | .311 | 4.46 | 17.4% | 4.5% | 91 | +0.95 | 2.96 | 353 | 68 |
| Matt Festa R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.65 | 26.2% | 6.7% | 3.5% | .321 | 4.24 | 23.9% | 15.1% | 102 | +0.59 | 2.56 | 414 | 68 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 25.5% | 8.4% | 3.1% | .340 | 4.39 | 22.5% | 13.6% | 185 | +0.65 | 3.74 | 223 | 68 |
| Justin Sterner R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.81 | 23.9% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .279 | 4.63 | 26.6% | 17.2% | 142 | -0.18 | 3.97 | 252 | 68 |
| Shohei Ohtani R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.46 | 29.9% | 10.4% | 2.9% | .267 | 3.11 | 29.3% | 21.4% | 130 | -0.35 | 1.69 | 545 | 68 |
| Steven Wilson R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 27.2% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .271 | 3.68 | 29.3% | 19.9% | 92 | -0.34 | 3.61 | 311 | 67 |
| Mason Englert R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.11 | 26.2% | 7.1% | 4.2% | .294 | 2.73 | 24.2% | 18.3% | 67 | -1.38 | 2.73 | 397 | 67 |
| Jarod Bayless R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.90 | 25.7% | 8.1% | 3.5% | .250 | 4.52 | 20.7% | 13.1% | 100 | +0.62 | 1.29 | 217 | 67 |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.06 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .260 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.30 | 4.01 | 283 | 67 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2024
Service 2.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2029
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2027 | Arb-1 | $5M | +2.0 | $16M | +$12M |
| 2028 | Arb-2 | $9M | +2.1 | $18M | +$9M |
| 2029 | Arb-3 | $14M | +2.2 | $19M | +$6M |
| Totals | $28M | $56M | +$28M | ||