Jared Jones
P
Pittsburgh Pirates
Age 24
RHP
6'0" / 211 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 2.4 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION54 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10192vR 83
ERA3.63
FIP3.58
K%27.6%
BB%7.6%
K-BB%20.0%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 118 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9098.6
Whiff%
p9032.7%
K%
p7727.1%
xwOBA vs
p670.295
SL+7.2 (35%)
FB+0.7 (49%)
CU (9%)
CH-4.4 (7%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 18 | 15 | 66 | 302 | 103 | 34 | 6 | 83% | 3.7 | 25.2% | 13.3% | 12.0% | 1.6% | 4.64 | 3.54 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 18 | 15 | 66 | 302 | 103 | 34 | 6 | 83% | 3.7 | 34.1% | 11.3% | 22.8% | 2.0% | 4.64 | 2.71 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 26 | 26 | 123 | 532 | 142 | 51 | 19 | 100% | 4.7 | 20.6% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 4.62 | 4.35 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 26 | 26 | 123 | 532 | 142 | 51 | 19 | 100% | 4.7 | 26.7% | 9.6% | 17.1% | 3.6% | 4.62 | 4.05 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 126 | 529 | 146 | 50 | 12 | 96% | 4.9 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 13.6% | 2.1% | 3.85 | 3.55 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 126 | 529 | 146 | 50 | 12 | 96% | 4.9 | 27.6% | 9.5% | 18.1% | 2.3% | 3.85 | 3.21 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 133 | 547 | 148 | 41 | 19 | 100% | 5.3 | 26.2% | 7.5% | 18.7% | 3.6% | 4.21 | 3.82 | +2.4 |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 133 | 547 | 148 | 41 | 19 | 100% | 5.3 | 27.1% | 7.5% | 19.6% | 3.5% | 4.21 | 3.66 | +2.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 13 | 13 | 54 | 217 | 63 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 4.1 | 27.1% | 7.6% | 19.4% | 3.5% | 3.86 | 3.69 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | PIT | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 75 | 21 | 9 | 100% | 5.4 | 27.6% | 7.6% | 20.0% | 3.4% | 3.63 | 3.58 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | PIT | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 76 | 21 | 9 | 100% | 5.4 | 27.6% | 7.6% | 20.0% | 3.3% | 3.62 | 3.57 | +0.8 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 118 | 491 | 138 | 38 | 15 | — | — | 28.2% | 7.7% | 20.5% | 3.1% | 3.73 | 3.63 | +2.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 100 | 421 | 138 | 38 | 15 | — | — | 32.8% | 8.9% | 23.9% | 3.6% | 4.42 | 3.43 | +2.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | PIT | 24 | 24 | 141 | 596 | 167 | 44 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 28.0% | 7.3% | 20.7% | 3.3% | 3.93 | 3.88 | +2.5 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 26 | 26 | 153 | 647 | 183 | 47 | 22 | 100% | 5.9 | 28.2% | 7.3% | 20.9% | 3.3% | 3.89 | 3.86 | +2.8 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 26 | 26 | 155 | 654 | 185 | 48 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 28.2% | 7.4% | 20.9% | 3.4% | 3.89 | 3.89 | +2.7 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 26 | 26 | 155 | 654 | 184 | 49 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 28.1% | 7.5% | 20.6% | 3.5% | 3.94 | 3.98 | +2.6 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | PIT | 25 | 25 | 148 | 624 | 172 | 48 | 23 | 100% | 5.9 | 27.5% | 7.8% | 19.8% | 3.6% | 4.06 | 4.14 | +2.2 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | PIT | 23 | 23 | 139 | 587 | 157 | 47 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.8% | 8.1% | 18.8% | 3.8% | 4.23 | 4.35 | +1.7 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | PIT | 22 | 22 | 130 | 547 | 143 | 46 | 22 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.1% | 8.4% | 17.7% | 4.1% | 4.44 | 4.58 | +1.2 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 20 | 20 | 120 | 506 | 128 | 45 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.3% | 8.8% | 16.5% | 4.3% | 4.68 | 4.83 | +0.8 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 18 | 18 | 110 | 464 | 113 | 43 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.4% | 9.2% | 15.2% | 4.6% | 4.94 | 5.11 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 17 | 17 | 100 | 423 | 99 | 41 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.5% | 9.8% | 13.8% | 4.9% | 5.23 | 5.42 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | PIT | 23 | 23 | 134 | 566 | 159 | 41 | 19 | 100% | 5.8 | 28.0% | 7.3% | 20.7% | 3.3% | 3.92 | 3.87 | +2.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 24 | 24 | 146 | 616 | 174 | 45 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 28.2% | 7.3% | 20.9% | 3.3% | 3.88 | 3.85 | +2.6 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 24 | 24 | 147 | 621 | 175 | 46 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 28.2% | 7.4% | 20.9% | 3.4% | 3.88 | 3.88 | +2.6 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 24 | 24 | 147 | 621 | 174 | 47 | 22 | 100% | 6.1 | 28.1% | 7.5% | 20.6% | 3.5% | 3.93 | 3.97 | +2.5 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | PIT | 24 | 24 | 141 | 595 | 164 | 46 | 22 | 100% | 5.9 | 27.5% | 7.8% | 19.8% | 3.6% | 4.05 | 4.13 | +2.1 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | PIT | 22 | 22 | 132 | 557 | 149 | 45 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.8% | 8.1% | 18.8% | 3.8% | 4.22 | 4.34 | +1.6 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | PIT | 20 | 20 | 123 | 519 | 135 | 44 | 21 | 100% | 6.2 | 26.1% | 8.4% | 17.7% | 4.1% | 4.43 | 4.57 | +1.2 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 19 | 19 | 114 | 481 | 122 | 42 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.3% | 8.8% | 16.5% | 4.3% | 4.67 | 4.82 | +0.8 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 17 | 17 | 104 | 439 | 107 | 41 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.4% | 9.2% | 15.2% | 4.6% | 4.93 | 5.10 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 15 | 15 | 91 | 384 | 90 | 37 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.5% | 9.8% | 13.8% | 4.9% | 5.22 | 5.41 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 259 | 259 | 1500 | 6320 | 1696 | 503 | 237 | 100% | 5.8 | 26.8% | 8.0% | 18.9% | 3.8% | 4.21 | 3.91 | +26.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 843 | 226 | 67 | 32 | 100% | 5.8 | 26.8% | 8.0% | 18.9% | 3.8% | 4.21 | 3.91 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 108 | 104 | 501 | 2127 | 513 | 210 | 59 | 96% | 4.6 | 24.1% | 9.9% | 14.2% | 2.8% | 4.24 | 3.83 | +9.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 41 | 200 | 849 | 205 | 84 | 23 | 96% | 4.6 | 24.1% | 9.9% | 14.2% | 2.8% | 4.24 | 3.83 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jared Jones (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.91 | 27.9% | 7.5% | 3.3% | — | 3.88 | 28.2% | 20.8% | 449 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Dom Hamel R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.08 | 24.6% | 10.2% | 3.2% | .314 | 5.13 | 18.6% | 6.7% | 271 | +1.05 | 3.65 | 514 | 72 |
| Chase Burns R 2025 · 3.42 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.42 | 28.6% | 9.0% | 2.9% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.41 | 188 | 71 |
| Trent Thornton R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.78 | 20.8% | 5.9% | 3.1% | .298 | 4.49 | 22.5% | 14.0% | 203 | +0.71 | 3.24 | 873 | 71 |
| Hunter Gaddis R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.15 | 26.8% | 9.0% | 4.0% | .264 | 4.09 | 20.8% | 13.4% | 258 | -0.06 | 2.48 | 524 | 70 |
| Jayden Murray R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 20.8% | 5.3% | 4.1% | .167 | 5.03 | 17.0% | 6.4% | 145 | +0.79 | 3.38 | 372 | 68 |
| Brandon Pfaadt R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.64 | 22.9% | 6.3% | 4.9% | .308 | 3.73 | 21.3% | 15.9% | 412 | -0.91 | 3.39 | 867 | 68 |
| Davis Daniel R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.02 | 25.8% | 7.7% | 3.9% | .313 | 4.34 | 19.6% | 12.2% | 283 | +0.32 | 3.06 | 584 | 67 |
| Brent Honeywell R 2024 · 2.89 FIP | 22 | SP | 2.89 | 25.6% | 6.2% | 2.1% | .363 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 617 | 67 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2025 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.69 | 25.1% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .256 | 5.06 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 89 | +1.37 | 3.69 | 333 | 66 |
| Spencer Arrighetti R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.84 | 27.1% | 10.3% | 3.1% | .315 | 4.45 | 22.9% | 10.5% | 132 | +0.61 | 3.84 | 508 | 66 |
| Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.69 | 21.8% | 5.6% | 3.1% | .336 | 6.45 | 25.7% | 15.1% | 20 | +2.76 | 3.69 | 124 | 65 |
| Gavin Williams R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.58 | 26.0% | 10.6% | 2.4% | .252 | 3.94 | 26.0% | 15.8% | 369 | +0.36 | 3.43 | 626 | 65 |
| Walker Buehler R 2026 · 2.78 FIP | 24 | SP | 2.78 | 27.7% | 6.8% | 2.1% | .247 | 3.07 | 27.6% | 21.8% | 427 | +0.29 | 2.63 | 1,053 | 65 |
| Alex Faedo R 2025 · 3.39 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.39 | 22.9% | 5.8% | 2.7% | .293 | 4.60 | 18.0% | 7.8% | 54 | +1.21 | 3.39 | 438 | 65 |
| Erik Swanson R 2026 · 3.08 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.08 | 25.2% | 6.9% | 2.2% | .271 | 5.11 | 22.3% | 15.9% | 118 | +2.03 | 1.63 | 606 | 65 |
| Yariel Rodríguez R 2029 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.80 | 25.1% | 11.8% | 2.4% | .275 | 3.77 | 24.2% | 12.3% | 89 | -0.03 | 2.60 | 196 | 65 |
| Blade Tidwell R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.07 | 22.2% | 9.9% | 2.9% | .295 | 4.29 | 22.9% | 11.6% | 57 | +0.22 | 4.07 | 408 | 64 |
| Mitch White R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.58 | 22.7% | 8.3% | 4.3% | .309 | 3.59 | 20.9% | 12.9% | 194 | -0.99 | 2.49 | 626 | 64 |
| Slade Cecconi R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.90 | 20.0% | 6.8% | 4.8% | .299 | 4.21 | 19.8% | 13.8% | 368 | -0.69 | 4.09 | 700 | 63 |
| David Festa R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.70 | 29.2% | 9.5% | 3.4% | .334 | 3.73 | 24.9% | 17.4% | 85 | +0.03 | 3.55 | 405 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 11 | 134 | 26.9% | 8.0% | 1.46 | 4.24 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Kenta Maeda ('24) | 8 | 122 | 25.9% | 6.9% | 1.30 | 4.17 |
| Rich Hill ('23) | 9 | 104 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 1.12 | 3.65 |
| James Paxton ('24) | 8 | 106 | 25.8% | 7.7% | 1.12 | 3.89 |
| Joe Musgrove ('24) | 9 | 117 | 23.9% | 6.0% | 1.13 | 3.73 |