Jared Jones — OGILVIE

Jared Jones P Pittsburgh Pirates

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 211 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 2.4 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION104 act + 10 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9889vR 81

ERA3.70

FIP3.64

K%27.8%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%19.9%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 115 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$9M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL5050

CMD6060

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.3

Whiff%

p9032.6%

p8128.0%

xwOBA vs

p760.287

SL+7.2 (35%)

FB+0.7 (49%)

CU (9%)

CH-4.4 (7%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.4M
2027	Arb-1	$5M	+1.5	$11M	+$7M
2028	Arb-2	$9M	+1.5	$10M	+$3M
2029	Arb-3	$14M	+1.5	$10M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$14M		$31M	+$10M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	18	15	66	302	103	34	6	83%	3.7	25.2%	13.3%	12.0%	2.0%	4.64	3.74	—
2021	19	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	18	15	66	302	103	34	6	83%	3.7	34.1%	11.3%	22.8%	2.0%	4.64	2.71	—
2022	20	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	26	26	123	532	142	51	19	100%	4.7	20.6%	11.0%	9.5%	3.5%	4.62	4.69	—
2022	20	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	26	26	123	532	142	51	19	100%	4.7	26.7%	9.6%	17.1%	3.6%	4.62	4.05	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	126	529	146	50	12	96%	4.9	22.7%	9.1%	13.6%	2.3%	3.85	3.61	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	126	529	146	50	12	96%	4.9	22.7%	9.1%	13.6%	2.3%	3.85	3.61	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	25	126	529	146	50	12	96%	4.9	27.6%	9.5%	18.1%	2.3%	3.85	3.21	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	133	547	148	41	19	100%	5.3	26.2%	7.5%	18.7%	3.9%	4.21	3.96	+1.5
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	133	547	148	41	19	100%	5.3	26.2%	7.5%	18.7%	3.9%	4.21	3.96	+1.5
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	133	547	148	41	19	100%	5.3	27.1%	7.5%	19.6%	3.5%	4.21	3.66	+2.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			40	40	207	861	232	68	30	100%	5.2	26.9%	7.9%	19.0%	3.5%	4.12	3.73	+2.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	23	23	104	430	124	36	13	100%	4.5	28.0%	8.4%	19.6%	3.6%	3.88	3.79	+1.4
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	23	23	104	430	124	36	13	100%	4.5	28.0%	8.4%	19.6%	3.6%	3.88	3.79	+1.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A RAW	PIT	1	1	3	9	5	0	0	100%	3.0	55.6%	0.0%	55.6%	0.0%	0.00	-1.59	—
2026	24	AA RAW	PIT	2	2	8	32	11	2	0	100%	4.2	34.4%	6.2%	28.1%	0.0%	2.16	0.99	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	PIT	2	2	7	32	8	4	1	100%	3.6	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	3.1%	4.91	4.29	—
2026	24	MLB RAW	PIT	18	18	86	357	100	30	12	100%	4.8	28.0%	8.4%	19.6%	3.4%	4.10	3.64	+1.3
SO FAR	24	MLB RAW	PIT	18	18	86	357	100	30	12	100%	4.8	28.0%	8.4%	19.6%	3.4%	4.10	3.64	+1.3
ROS	24	MLB MLE	PIT	2	2	10	43	12	3	1	100%	5.1	27.8%	7.9%	19.9%	3.4%	3.70	3.64	+0.2
ROS	24	MLB CTX	PIT	2	2	10	42	12	3	1	100%	5.0	27.8%	7.9%	19.9%	3.2%	3.56	3.50	+0.2
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	PIT	—	—	115	473	136	39	14	—	—	28.7%	8.3%	20.4%	3.1%	3.87	3.78	+1.5
FULL	24	MLB A+C	PIT	—	—	96	405	136	39	14	—	—	33.6%	9.7%	23.9%	3.6%	4.60	3.45	+1.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	PIT	23	23	135	571	160	44	19	100%	5.9	28.0%	7.7%	20.3%	3.4%	3.99	3.95	+1.5
2028	26	MLB MLE	PIT	24	24	142	600	169	46	20	100%	5.9	28.1%	7.7%	20.4%	3.4%	3.96	3.94	+1.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	PIT	24	24	144	608	171	47	21	100%	6.0	28.1%	7.8%	20.3%	3.4%	3.97	3.98	+1.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	PIT	24	24	144	608	170	48	21	100%	6.0	27.9%	7.9%	20.0%	3.5%	4.02	4.06	+1.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	PIT	23	23	138	581	159	47	21	100%	6.0	27.4%	8.2%	19.2%	3.7%	4.14	4.22	+1.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	PIT	22	22	129	546	145	46	21	100%	5.9	26.7%	8.5%	18.2%	3.9%	4.31	4.43	+0.7
2033	31	MLB MLE	PIT	20	20	121	509	132	45	21	100%	6.0	25.9%	8.8%	17.1%	4.1%	4.52	4.66	+0.3
2034	32	MLB MLE	PIT	19	19	112	471	118	43	20	100%	5.9	25.1%	9.2%	15.9%	4.3%	4.76	4.91	-0.0
2035	33	MLB MLE	PIT	17	17	102	432	105	42	20	100%	6.0	24.2%	9.7%	14.6%	4.6%	5.02	5.19	-0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	PIT	22	22	128	540	151	42	17	100%	5.8	28.0%	7.7%	20.3%	3.1%	3.85	3.81	+1.5
2028	26	MLB CTX	PIT	22	22	135	570	160	44	18	100%	6.1	28.1%	7.7%	20.4%	3.1%	3.82	3.80	+1.5
2029	27	MLB CTX	PIT	23	23	137	578	162	45	18	100%	6.0	28.1%	7.8%	20.3%	3.2%	3.83	3.84	+1.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	PIT	23	23	137	578	162	46	19	100%	6.0	27.9%	7.9%	20.0%	3.3%	3.87	3.91	+1.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	PIT	22	22	131	553	151	45	19	100%	6.0	27.4%	8.2%	19.2%	3.4%	3.99	4.07	+1.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	PIT	20	20	123	519	138	44	19	100%	6.2	26.7%	8.5%	18.2%	3.6%	4.15	4.27	+0.7
2033	31	MLB CTX	PIT	19	19	115	486	126	43	18	100%	6.1	25.9%	8.8%	17.1%	3.8%	4.35	4.49	+0.3
2034	32	MLB CTX	PIT	18	18	106	448	112	41	18	100%	5.9	25.1%	9.2%	15.9%	4.0%	4.58	4.73	-0.0
2035	33	MLB CTX	PIT	16	16	97	410	99	40	18	100%	6.1	24.2%	9.7%	14.6%	4.3%	4.83	5.00	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		228	228	1326	5586	1506	461	194	100%	5.8	27.0%	8.3%	18.7%	3.5%	4.10	3.78	+17.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	842	227	70	29	100%	5.8	27.0%	8.3%	18.7%	3.5%	4.10	3.78	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		118	114	552	2340	570	224	74	97%	4.7	24.3%	9.6%	14.8%	3.1%	4.21	3.99	+10.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	41	200	848	206	81	27	97%	4.7	24.3%	9.6%	14.8%	3.1%	4.21	3.99	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jared Jones (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.97	27.5%	7.5%	3.4%	—	3.96	28.0%	20.3%	422	-0.01	—	—	—
Dom Hamel R 2023 · 3.94 FIP	24	SP	3.94	24.6%	10.2%	2.9%	.314	5.16	17.5%	7.3%	304	+1.22	3.61	547	72
Hunter Gaddis R 2022 · 4.17 FIP	24	SP	4.17	26.8%	9.0%	4.0%	.264	4.09	20.5%	13.6%	258	-0.08	2.48	547	71
Trent Thornton R 2018 · 3.69 FIP	24	SP	3.69	20.8%	5.9%	2.9%	.298	4.49	22.5%	14.0%	203	+0.80	3.20	892	70
Connor Phillips R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	22	SP	3.99	27.2%	12.5%	2.9%	.321	4.72	21.4%	6.4%	200	+0.73	3.38	508	67
Jayden Murray R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	24	SP	4.14	20.8%	5.3%	3.9%	.167	4.92	16.8%	6.7%	145	+0.78	3.80	363	67
Davis Daniel R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	24	SP	3.93	25.8%	7.7%	3.7%	.313	4.18	19.1%	12.1%	283	+0.25	3.04	593	67
Brent Honeywell R 2017 · 2.94 FIP	22	SP	2.94	25.6%	6.2%	2.2%	.363	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	617	66
Mason Black R 2023 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.8%	10.0%	3.6%	.284	5.15	17.4%	7.7%	331	+0.88	3.95	567	66
Gavin Williams R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	24	SP	3.58	25.4%	10.0%	2.5%	.252	3.81	28.1%	18.3%	425	+0.23	3.44	682	66
Cade Horton R 2023 · 3.22 FIP	21	SP	3.22	26.0%	8.8%	2.2%	.273	3.60	21.6%	13.8%	181	+0.38	3.22	270	66
Brandon Pfaadt R 2023 · 4.83 FIP	24	SP	4.83	22.4%	6.0%	5.2%	.308	3.84	20.4%	15.3%	482	-0.99	3.56	938	65
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	65
Ty Madden R 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	24.0%	11.2%	3.7%	.304	4.87	20.6%	11.1%	207	+0.35	4.52	448	65
Erik Swanson R 2018 · 3.14 FIP	24	SP	3.14	25.2%	6.9%	2.3%	.271	5.07	22.3%	15.9%	118	+1.93	1.60	606	65
Alex Faedo R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP	3.73	22.9%	5.8%	3.3%	.293	4.52	18.0%	7.8%	54	+0.79	3.66	456	65
Hayden Birdsong R 2023 · 3.29 FIP	21	SP	3.29	26.7%	11.9%	1.7%	.320	4.77	24.4%	11.6%	225	+1.48	3.29	326	65
Chase Hampton R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	26.1%	9.5%	3.5%	.296	7.55	16.7%	-0.5%	36	+3.51	4.04	142	64
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	64
Vince Velasquez R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	24	SP	3.73	27.6%	8.0%	3.5%	.323	4.16	24.6%	15.6%	336	+0.43	3.26	959	64
Isaac Coffey R 2023 · 5.00 FIP	23	SP	5.00	24.8%	7.5%	5.6%	.266	4.38	22.2%	10.7%	170	-0.62	3.67	287	64

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.4	129	27.0%	8.2%	1.44	4.24
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45