Jared Jones

P Pittsburgh Pirates

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 211 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 2.2 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	21	MIX2 levels	26	25	126	3.85	3.21	27.6%	9.5%	—	K 23.3% · BB 9.1% · FIP 3.56
2024	22	MIX2 levels	25	25	133	4.21	3.66	27.1%	7.5%	2.8	K 26.2% · BB 7.5% · FIP 3.96
2026	24	MIX4 levels	26	26	120	3.59	2.98	30.1%	7.6%	3.6	K 29.6% · BB 7.5% · FIP 3.26
2027PROJ	25	MLBPIT	18	18	104	3.69	3.59	30.5%	7.2%	2.3
2028PROJ95% MLB	26	MLBPIT	17	17	102	3.49	3.45	30.6%	7.2%	2.2
2029PROJ95% MLB	27	MLBPIT	17	17	101	3.48	3.48	30.6%	7.3%	2.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 6.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 6.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.000First FA2030

2027Arb-1$5M2028Arb-2$9M2029Arb-3$13M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

K%90

xwOBA vs87

Form0.93 ERA (proj 3.69) · K 38.8% (proj 30.5%) · BB 3.9% (proj 7.2%) ▲▲ last 60d · 29 IP through Oct 27

CompsBrandon Sproat (age 23) · Tanner Bibee (age 25) · Luke Weaver (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9486vR 78

ERA3.69

FIP3.59

K%30.5%

BB%7.2%

K-BB%23.3%

Proj IP104

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 104 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$28M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL5050

CMD6060

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.2

Whiff%

p9032.6%

p9029.6%

xwOBA vs

p870.276

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2024

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$5M	+2.3	$18M	+$14M
2028	Arb-2	$9M	+2.2	$16M	+$8M
2029	Arb-3	$13M	+2.2	$15M	+$5M
Totals		$26M		$50M	+$27M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	18	15	66	302	103	34	6	83%	3.7	25.2%	13.3%	12.0%	2.0%	4.64	3.74	—
2021	19	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	18	15	66	302	103	34	6	83%	3.7	34.1%	11.3%	22.8%	2.0%	4.64	2.71	—
2022	20	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	26	26	123	532	142	51	19	100%	4.7	20.6%	11.0%	9.5%	3.5%	4.62	4.69	—
2022	20	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	26	26	123	532	142	51	19	100%	4.7	26.7%	9.6%	17.1%	3.6%	4.62	4.05	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	126	529	146	50	12	96%	4.9	23.3%	9.1%	14.2%	2.3%	3.85	3.56	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	25	126	529	146	50	12	96%	4.9	27.6%	9.5%	18.1%	2.3%	3.85	3.21	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	133	547	148	41	19	100%	5.3	26.2%	7.5%	18.7%	3.9%	4.21	3.96	+2.3
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	133	547	148	41	19	100%	5.3	26.2%	7.5%	18.7%	3.9%	4.21	3.96	+2.3
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	133	547	148	41	19	100%	5.3	27.1%	7.5%	19.6%	3.5%	4.21	3.66	+2.8
2026	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	26	26	120	488	147	37	13	100%	4.6	29.6%	7.5%	22.2%	3.1%	3.59	3.26	+3.2
2026	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	26	26	120	488	147	37	13	100%	4.6	29.6%	7.5%	22.2%	3.1%	3.59	3.26	+3.2
2026	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	26	26	120	488	147	37	13	100%	4.6	30.1%	7.6%	22.5%	2.7%	3.59	2.98	+3.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			43	43	223	919	255	69	30	100%	5.2	27.7%	7.5%	20.2%	3.3%	3.95	3.49	+5.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	PIT	18	18	104	439	134	32	14	100%	5.8	30.5%	7.2%	23.3%	3.2%	3.69	3.59	+2.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	PIT	18	18	107	453	138	32	15	100%	6.0	30.6%	7.2%	23.4%	3.2%	3.62	3.58	+2.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	PIT	18	18	106	447	137	32	15	100%	5.9	30.6%	7.3%	23.3%	3.3%	3.62	3.62	+2.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	PIT	17	17	104	439	134	33	15	100%	6.1	30.4%	7.4%	23.0%	3.4%	3.67	3.70	+2.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	PIT	16	16	98	413	123	32	15	100%	6.1	29.9%	7.6%	22.2%	3.5%	3.79	3.86	+1.8
2032	30	MLB MLE	PIT	15	15	89	377	110	30	14	100%	6.0	29.2%	7.9%	21.2%	3.7%	3.96	4.07	+1.4
2033	31	MLB MLE	PIT	13	13	78	331	94	27	13	100%	6.0	28.4%	8.3%	20.1%	4.0%	4.17	4.30	+1.0
2034	32	MLB MLE	PIT	11	11	65	276	76	24	12	100%	5.9	27.6%	8.7%	18.9%	4.2%	4.40	4.56	+0.6
2035	33	MLB MLE	PIT	8	8	50	212	57	19	10	100%	6.3	26.8%	9.1%	17.6%	4.5%	4.66	4.84	+0.3
2036	34	MLB MLE	PIT	8	8	47	200	56	18	10	100%	5.9	27.9%	8.8%	19.0%	4.8%	4.79	4.87	+0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	PIT	17	17	102	431	132	31	13	100%	6.0	30.6%	7.2%	23.4%	3.0%	3.49	3.45	+2.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	PIT	17	17	101	426	130	31	13	100%	5.9	30.6%	7.3%	23.3%	3.0%	3.48	3.48	+2.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	PIT	16	16	99	418	127	31	13	100%	6.2	30.4%	7.4%	23.0%	3.1%	3.53	3.56	+2.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	PIT	16	16	93	393	117	30	13	100%	5.8	29.9%	7.6%	22.2%	3.3%	3.64	3.71	+1.7
2032	30	MLB CTX	PIT	14	14	85	359	105	28	12	100%	6.1	29.2%	7.9%	21.2%	3.5%	3.81	3.92	+1.3
2033	31	MLB CTX	PIT	12	12	75	317	90	26	12	100%	6.2	28.4%	8.3%	20.1%	3.7%	4.01	4.14	+1.0
2034	32	MLB CTX	PIT	10	10	62	262	72	23	10	100%	6.2	27.6%	8.7%	18.9%	3.9%	4.23	4.39	+0.6
2035	33	MLB CTX	PIT	8	8	48	203	54	19	8	100%	6.0	26.8%	9.1%	17.6%	4.1%	4.48	4.66	+0.3
2036	34	MLB CTX	PIT	7	7	43	182	51	16	8	100%	6.1	27.9%	8.8%	19.0%	4.4%	4.59	4.67	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		161	161	929	3900	1131	303	132	100%	5.8	29.0%	7.8%	21.2%	3.4%	3.84	3.49	+21.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	839	243	65	28	100%	5.8	29.0%	7.8%	21.2%	3.4%	3.84	3.49	+4.7
Career	—	MLE		121	117	568	2398	597	225	73	97%	4.7	24.9%	9.4%	15.5%	3.1%	4.14	3.86	+17.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	41	200	844	210	79	26	97%	4.7	24.9%	9.4%	15.5%	3.1%	4.14	3.86	+3.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 7 IPFIP 4.29 → 4.60 (+0.31)K% 25.0% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.860	21.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×0.900	11.25%
HR / BF /BF	3.12%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.44%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.29 → 4.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAltoona Curve · 8 IPFIP 0.99 → 1.62 (+0.63)K% 34.4% → 27.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.38%	—	×0.810	27.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.25%	—	×1.100	6.88%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 0.99 → 1.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 11 IPFIP 2.12 → 2.74 (+0.62)K% 37.2% → 32.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.21%	—	×0.860	32.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.98%	—	×0.900	6.28%
HR / BF /BF	2.33%	÷0.909	×1.100	2.82%

Result: FIP 2.12 → 2.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 82 IPFIP 3.35 → 3.57 (+0.22)K% 28.3% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.29%	—	×0.860	24.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.71%	—	×0.900	8.74%
HR / BF /BF	2.57%	÷1.095	×1.100	2.58%

Result: FIP 3.35 → 3.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAltoona Curve · 44 IPFIP 2.93 → 3.55 (+0.61)K% 26.3% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.26%	—	×0.810	21.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.94%	—	×1.100	9.83%
HR / BF /BF	1.68%	÷1.106	×1.200	1.82%

Result: FIP 2.93 → 3.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 123 IPFIP 4.02 → 4.69 (+0.67)K% 26.7% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.69%	—	×0.770	20.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.59%	—	×1.150	11.02%
HR / BF /BF	3.57%	÷1.273	×1.250	3.51%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 155).

Result: FIP 4.02 → 4.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ABradenton Marauders · 66 IPFIP 2.74 → 3.74 (+1.00)K% 34.1% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.11%	—	×0.740	25.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.26%	—	×1.180	13.28%
HR / BF /BF	1.99%	÷1.302	×1.300	1.98%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 160).

Result: FIP 2.74 → 3.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jared Jones (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.59	30.5%	7.2%	3.2%	—	3.63	30.5%	23.3%	317	+0.04	—	—	—
Brandon Sproat R 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP	4.39	22.9%	9.7%	3.6%	.264	3.94	21.7%	11.0%	261	-0.45	3.43	377	60
Tanner Bibee R 2024 · 3.37 FIP	25	SP	3.37	26.3%	6.2%	3.1%	.280	4.29	20.1%	13.1%	370	+0.92	3.13	834	60
Luke Weaver R 2019 · 2.83 FIP	25	SP	2.83	26.5%	5.0%	2.4%	.285	3.98	22.6%	15.6%	153	+1.15	2.54	1,043	60
Kutter Crawford R 2021 · 3.30 FIP	25	SP	3.30	29.1%	5.6%	3.5%	.321	4.23	23.6%	16.6%	415	+0.93	3.30	741	59
Alex Cobb R 2013 · 3.31 FIP	25	SP	3.31	23.2%	7.1%	2.3%	.274	3.43	20.5%	13.6%	203	+0.12	2.74	1,343	59
Zac Gallen R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	25	SP	4.13	26.6%	9.2%	3.8%	.281	3.09	26.1%	19.3%	542	-1.04	2.88	1,485	59
Robert Stephenson R 2018 · 4.25 FIP	25	SP	4.25	24.5%	13.0%	2.9%	.253	3.22	29.0%	20.8%	111	-1.03	2.99	778	59
Shohei Ohtani R 2018 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP	3.43	29.9%	10.4%	2.8%	.267	3.14	29.3%	21.4%	130	-0.29	1.76	613	58
Gavin Williams R 2024 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP	3.54	24.7%	9.8%	2.3%	.317	3.83	29.1%	19.2%	352	+0.29	3.39	697	58
Nick Pivetta R 2018 · 3.51 FIP	25	SP	3.51	27.1%	7.3%	3.2%	.323	4.29	25.2%	15.5%	305	+0.78	2.06	1,597	58
Jon Gray R 2017 · 2.93 FIP	25	SP	2.93	24.3%	6.5%	1.9%	.333	3.73	22.8%	15.5%	361	+0.80	2.93	1,345	58
Yoshinobu Yamamoto R 2024 · 2.45 FIP	25	SP	2.45	28.5%	6.0%	1.8%	.303	2.98	27.5%	20.3%	359	+0.53	2.45	449	57
Luis Severino R 2018 · 2.72 FIP	24	SP	2.72	28.2%	5.9%	2.3%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	1,293	57
Lance McCullers Jr. R 2018 · 3.31 FIP	24	SP	3.31	26.9%	9.5%	2.3%	.272	3.32	26.4%	15.9%	217	+0.01	2.77	861	57
Will Warren R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	24.5%	7.6%	4.1%	.344	3.77	23.7%	15.2%	318	-0.49	3.72	709	57
David Festa R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	28.9%	8.7%	3.5%	.334	3.76	24.7%	17.5%	85	+0.09	3.67	405	56
Luis Garcia R 2022 · 3.98 FIP	25	SP	3.98	24.4%	7.3%	3.7%	.260	3.43	26.1%	18.8%	44	-0.55	3.40	535	56
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	56
Chayce McDermott R 2024 · 3.80 FIP	25	SP	3.80	28.3%	12.3%	2.8%	.314	4.33	23.3%	8.3%	108	+0.53	3.27	449	56
Chase Dollander R 2024 · 3.11 FIP	22	SP	3.11	26.5%	10.6%	1.7%	.315	4.48	20.5%	9.7%	157	+1.37	3.11	275	56

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.4	89	29.2%	7.7%	1.38	3.93
Cecilio Guante ('82-'90, 6 WAR*)	3.0	66	26.6%*	9.2%*	1.30*	3.85*
Joe Price ('80-'90, 7 WAR*)	4.5	82	23.3%*	8.8%*	1.49*	4.15*
Ron Davis ('78-'88, 6 WAR*)	3.7	83	28.0%*	9.3%*	1.25*	4.20*
Drew Smyly ('24)	5.7	104	23.1%	7.7%	1.49	4.20
Will Smith ('24)	3.3	59	27.4%	8.7%	1.16	3.85
Trevor May ('23)	2.3	50	26.8%	8.5%	1.20	4.24