Zac Gallen — OGILVIE

Zac Gallen P Arizona Diamondbacks

+1.6 WAR

Age 30 RHP 6'2" / 189 lbs MLB Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 1.6 · 2026

ERA4.23

FIP4.37

xFIP4.59

SIERA4.83

K%22.9%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%14.9%

IP175

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.6peak

2026

K†5555

FB Velo

p3693.5

Whiff%

p1016.2%

p1012.7%

xwOBA vs

p100.361

CH+1.6 (13%)

CT+0.5 (3%)

SI (6%)

CU (19%)

SL (21%)

FB (43%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2016	20	ROK	GCL Cardinals	6	3	10	36	15	0	0	—	—	—	1.86	—	—
2017	21	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	26	26	148	608	121	34	11	16.0%	6.2%	1.9%	2.93	3.56	+2.9
2018	22	AAA	New Orleans Baby Cakes	25	25	133	588	136	48	14	20.4%	8.6%	2.7%	3.64	3.97	+2.0
2019	23	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	29	29	171	667	208	52	18	29.2%	7.9%	2.7%	2.26	3.14	+4.2
2020	24	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	12	12	72	291	82	25	9	28.2%	8.6%	3.1%	2.75	3.51	+1.3
2021	25	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	23	23	121	523	139	48	19	26.6%	9.2%	3.4%	4.30	3.90	+1.9
2022	26	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	31	31	184	714	192	47	15	26.9%	6.6%	2.3%	2.54	2.91	+5.0
2023	27	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	34	34	210	846	220	47	22	26.0%	5.6%	2.5%	3.47	3.00	+5.5
2024	28	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	28	28	148	621	156	54	13	25.1%	8.7%	2.1%	3.65	3.23	+3.5
2025	29	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	33	192	813	175	65	31	21.5%	8.0%	4.0%	4.83	4.49	+1.8
▸ 2026 Season
2026	30	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	4	4	20	85	11	7	2	12.9%	8.2%	2.4%	3.60	4.34	+0.1
ROS	30	MLB	ARI	26	26	143	603	119	49	19	19.7%	8.1%	3.2%	4.03	4.20	+1.8
2026 Total	30	MLB	ARI	—	—	163	688	130	56	21	18.9%	8.1%	3.1%	3.98	4.22	+2.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	31	MLB	ARI	27	27	146	617	118	50	20	19.1%	8.2%	3.3%	4.58	4.69	+1.0
2028	32	MLB	ARI	24	24	130	551	102	46	18	18.5%	8.3%	3.3%	4.71	4.80	+0.7
2029	33	MLB	ARI	21	21	116	489	87	42	17	17.8%	8.5%	3.4%	4.84	4.93	+0.5
2030	34	MLB	ARI	19	19	102	432	74	38	15	17.1%	8.7%	3.5%	4.98	5.07	+0.3
2031	35	MLB	ARI	16	16	90	379	62	34	14	16.4%	8.9%	3.6%	5.12	5.22	-0.0
2032	36	MLB	ARI	14	14	78	330	58	28	12	17.6%	8.4%	3.8%	5.12	5.11	-0.0
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			251	248	1409	5792	1402	434	158	24.2%	7.5%	2.7%	3.39	3.50	+28.8
/ 200 IP	—			36	35	200	822	199	62	22	24.2%	7.5%	2.7%	3.39	3.50	+4.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zac Gallen (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.41	22.6%	8.0%	3.3%	—	4.80	18.5%	10.2%	393	+0.39	—	—	—
Thad Weber R 2026 · 4.64 FIP	30	SP	4.64	13.7%	6.4%	3.5%	.293	4.59	11.2%	5.7%	202	-0.05	4.36	363	40
Edinson Volquez R 2028 · 3.69 FIP	32	SP	3.69	18.2%	8.4%	2.0%	.286	4.34	17.6%	7.6%	282	+0.65	3.69	498	40
Merrill Kelly R 2026 · 4.37 FIP	30	SP	4.37	20.3%	6.8%	3.9%	.289	3.76	21.1%	14.8%	390	-0.61	3.61	1,008	39
Toru Murata R 2026 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	13.3%	6.9%	2.1%	.261	3.63	12.9%	7.2%	102	-0.39	3.63	267	39
Tom Koehler R 2026 · 4.37 FIP	30	SP	4.37	19.0%	9.8%	3.0%	.291	4.70	22.4%	13.4%	110	+0.33	4.37	474	39
Lance Lynn R 2026 · 4.71 FIP	30	SP	4.71	19.7%	9.4%	3.8%	.237	3.31	25.9%	17.8%	449	-1.40	2.87	1,390	39
Matt Garza R 2027 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	15.6%	8.1%	3.6%	.315	4.32	15.5%	7.7%	216	-0.49	4.03	365	38
Mike Pelfrey R 2027 · 3.70 FIP	31	SP	3.70	12.0%	6.2%	1.5%	.326	5.27	12.5%	2.9%	239	+1.57	3.70	404	38
Ubaldo Jiménez R 2027 · 3.63 FIP	31	SP	3.63	21.2%	8.5%	2.3%	.302	4.61	20.6%	10.5%	285	+0.98	3.63	469	37
Elih Villanueva R 2025 · 3.82 FIP	29	SP	3.82	11.0%	5.5%	1.7%	.269	5.50	14.1%	8.1%	57	+1.68	3.82	225	37
Nate Long R 2025 · 4.69 FIP	29	SP	4.69	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	151	37
Jesse Chavez R 2027 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP	3.95	20.2%	6.8%	3.1%	.309	4.27	22.0%	16.2%	300	+0.32	2.03	804	37
Cory Riordan R 2026 · 4.21 FIP	30	SP	4.21	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	154	37
Miguel González R 2027 · 4.53 FIP	31	SP	4.53	17.5%	7.9%	3.5%	.289	4.28	15.9%	9.0%	325	-0.25	3.76	469	37
Jhoulys Chacín R 2026 · 3.68 FIP	30	SP	3.68	19.6%	8.5%	2.1%	.244	5.03	20.0%	10.1%	168	+1.35	3.68	887	37
Kyle Davies R 2027 · 3.55 FIP	31	SP	3.55	13.8%	6.1%	1.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	153	37
Matt Buschmann R 2027 · 4.02 FIP	31	SP	4.02	17.2%	8.7%	2.3%	.282	4.83	12.8%	4.4%	142	+0.81	4.02	277	37
Jeff Samardzija R 2026 · 3.88 FIP	30	SP	3.88	17.9%	5.4%	2.9%	.297	4.09	21.5%	16.0%	473	+0.21	3.88	885	36
Marco Estrada R 2028 · 4.19 FIP	32	SP	4.19	18.1%	7.3%	3.1%	.213	4.56	20.6%	12.0%	506	+0.37	4.10	710	36
Kyle Gibson R 2026 · 3.76 FIP	30	SP	3.76	21.7%	9.3%	2.4%	.282	4.02	21.2%	12.9%	409	+0.26	3.61	1,689	36

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 7.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$13M	+1.6	$13M	+$0.0M
Totals		$13M		$13M	+$0.0M