Zac Gallen — OGILVIE

Zac Gallen P Arizona Diamondbacks

Age 30 RHP 6'2" / 189 lbs MLB Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 2.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION103 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA4.44

FIP4.60

K%16.5%

BB%7.4%

K-BB%9.1%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 116 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5050

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3493.4

Whiff%

p1018.9%

p1013.6%

xwOBA vs

p100.390

CH+1.6 (18%)

CT+0.5 (1%)

SI (6%)

CU (19%)

SL (22%)

FB (41%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 6.581 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

DEF 20%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$-0.1M	-$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	20	ROK MLE	GCL Cardinals	6	3	10	36	15	0	0	50%	1.6	41.7%	0.0%	41.7%	0.0%	1.86	-0.42	—
2016	20	ROK RAW	GCL Cardinals	6	3	10	36	15	0	0	50%	1.6	41.7%	0.0%	41.7%	0.0%	1.86	-0.00	—
2017	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	148	608	121	34	11	100%	5.7	16.0%	6.2%	9.8%	1.8%	2.93	3.53	—
2017	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	26	148	608	121	34	11	100%	5.7	19.9%	5.6%	14.3%	1.8%	2.93	3.12	—
2018	22	AAA MLE	New Orleans Baby Cakes	25	25	133	588	136	48	14	100%	5.3	20.4%	8.6%	11.8%	2.8%	3.64	3.98	—
2018	22	AAA RAW	New Orleans Baby Cakes	25	25	133	588	136	48	14	100%	5.3	23.1%	8.2%	15.0%	2.4%	3.64	3.50	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	171	667	208	52	18	100%	5.9	29.2%	7.9%	21.2%	2.8%	2.26	3.16	+3.7
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	171	667	208	52	18	100%	5.9	31.2%	7.8%	23.4%	2.7%	2.26	2.95	+4.2
2020	24	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	12	12	72	291	82	25	9	100%	6.0	28.2%	8.6%	19.6%	3.3%	2.75	3.61	+1.1
2020	24	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	12	12	72	291	82	25	9	100%	6.0	28.2%	8.6%	19.6%	3.1%	2.75	3.49	+1.2
2021	25	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	23	23	121	523	139	48	19	100%	5.3	26.6%	9.2%	17.4%	3.8%	4.30	4.13	+1.1
2021	25	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	23	23	121	523	139	48	19	100%	5.3	26.6%	9.2%	17.4%	3.6%	4.30	4.03	+1.3
2022	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	31	31	184	714	192	47	15	100%	5.9	26.9%	6.6%	20.3%	2.2%	2.54	2.88	+4.7
2022	26	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	31	31	184	714	192	47	15	100%	5.9	26.9%	6.6%	20.3%	2.1%	2.54	2.84	+4.8
2023	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	34	34	210	846	220	47	22	100%	6.2	26.0%	5.6%	20.4%	2.8%	3.47	3.12	+4.7
2023	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	34	34	210	846	220	47	22	100%	6.2	26.0%	5.6%	20.4%	2.8%	3.47	3.12	+4.7
2023	27	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	34	34	210	846	220	47	22	100%	6.2	26.0%	5.6%	20.4%	2.6%	3.47	3.04	+4.9
2024	28	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	28	28	148	621	156	54	13	100%	5.3	25.1%	8.7%	16.4%	2.2%	3.65	3.30	+2.9
2024	28	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	28	28	148	621	156	54	13	100%	5.3	25.1%	8.7%	16.4%	2.2%	3.65	3.30	+2.9
2024	28	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	28	28	148	621	156	54	13	100%	5.3	25.1%	8.7%	16.4%	2.1%	3.65	3.23	+3.1
2025	29	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	33	192	813	175	65	31	100%	5.8	21.5%	8.0%	13.5%	4.0%	4.83	4.51	+0.9
2025	29	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	33	192	813	175	65	31	100%	5.8	21.5%	8.0%	13.5%	4.0%	4.83	4.51	+0.9
2025	29	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	33	192	813	175	65	31	100%	5.8	21.5%	8.0%	13.5%	3.8%	4.83	4.39	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			196	196	1109	4597	1122	353	136	100%	5.7	24.4%	7.7%	16.7%	3.0%	3.82	3.63	+17.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	21	21	103	463	64	34	19	100%	4.9	13.6%	7.0%	6.6%	4.4%	6.12	5.27	-0.4
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	21	21	103	463	64	34	19	100%	4.9	13.6%	7.0%	6.6%	4.4%	6.12	5.27	-0.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	AAA RAW	ARI	1	1	2	8	2	2	0	100%	1.7	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.16	—
2026	30	MLB RAW	ARI	20	20	101	455	62	32	19	100%	5.1	13.6%	7.0%	6.6%	4.2%	6.22	5.13	-0.3
SO FAR	30	MLB RAW	ARI	20	20	101	455	62	32	19	100%	5.1	13.6%	7.0%	6.6%	4.2%	6.22	5.13	-0.3
ROS	30	MLB MLE	ARI	2	2	13	55	9	4	2	100%	6.6	16.5%	7.4%	9.1%	3.6%	4.44	4.60	+0.0
ROS	30	MLB CTX	ARI	2	2	13	55	9	4	2	100%	6.5	16.5%	7.4%	9.1%	3.4%	4.34	4.50	+0.0
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	116	518	73	38	21	—	—	14.1%	7.4%	6.8%	4.0%	5.93	5.19	-0.4
FULL	30	MLB A+C	ARI	—	—	114	483	73	38	21	—	—	15.1%	7.9%	7.2%	4.3%	6.00	5.19	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	ARI	28	28	171	722	119	56	29	100%	6.1	16.5%	7.8%	8.7%	4.0%	5.10	5.26	-0.7
2028	32	MLB MLE	ARI	26	26	158	668	105	55	28	100%	6.1	15.7%	8.2%	7.5%	4.2%	5.35	5.52	-1.1
2027	31	MLB CTX	ARI	28	28	171	722	119	56	27	100%	6.1	16.5%	7.8%	8.7%	3.8%	4.98	5.14	-0.7
2028	32	MLB CTX	ARI	26	26	158	667	105	55	27	100%	6.1	15.7%	8.2%	7.5%	4.0%	5.22	5.39	-1.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		254	254	1451	6042	1355	468	192	100%	5.7	22.4%	7.7%	14.7%	3.2%	4.12	3.93	+16.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	833	187	65	26	100%	5.7	22.4%	7.7%	14.7%	3.2%	4.12	3.93	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		268	265	1492	6170	1454	459	182	99%	5.6	23.6%	7.4%	16.1%	2.9%	3.58	3.67	+15.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		36	36	200	827	195	62	24	99%	5.6	23.6%	7.4%	16.1%	2.9%	3.58	3.67	+2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zac Gallen (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.42	22.7%	7.9%	3.4%	—	5.38	16.1%	8.1%	329	+0.96	—	—	—
Kyle Gibson R 2018 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	21.7%	9.3%	2.8%	.282	3.91	21.2%	12.9%	409	-0.06	3.56	1,689	71
Rick Porcello R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	30	SP	4.51	18.6%	5.6%	4.1%	.303	3.13	20.7%	15.0%	59	-1.38	3.13	1,023	70
Chase Anderson R 2018 · 4.98 FIP	30	SP	4.98	19.9%	8.9%	4.4%	.235	4.93	20.1%	11.9%	253	-0.05	3.30	1,146	69
Mike Leake R 2018 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	15.2%	4.0%	3.0%	.301	5.05	15.2%	12.2%	197	+1.08	3.69	937	69
Jhoulys Chacín R 2018 · 3.71 FIP	30	SP	3.71	19.6%	8.5%	2.1%	.244	5.07	20.0%	10.1%	168	+1.36	3.71	887	67
Masahiro Tanaka R 2019 · 4.01 FIP	30	SP	4.01	19.6%	5.3%	3.5%	.292	4.08	22.3%	18.2%	48	+0.07	3.34	918	64
Jeremy Hellickson R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	30	SP	5.25	13.8%	6.5%	4.5%	.241	4.29	17.7%	11.3%	147	-0.96	3.74	646	61
Andrew Cashner R 2017 · 4.34 FIP	30	SP	4.34	12.2%	9.1%	2.1%	.262	4.68	15.7%	6.6%	303	+0.34	3.64	786	57
Tom Koehler R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	30	SP	4.38	19.0%	9.8%	3.0%	.291	4.66	22.4%	13.4%	110	+0.28	4.38	474	57
Lance Lynn R 2017 · 4.68 FIP	30	SP	4.68	19.7%	9.4%	3.7%	.237	3.25	25.9%	17.8%	449	-1.43	2.85	1,390	56
Marcus Stroman R 2021 · 3.28 FIP	30	SP	3.28	21.6%	5.8%	2.3%	.281	3.82	19.3%	11.2%	430	+0.54	3.28	1,367	54
Alex Cobb R 2018 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	15.4%	5.7%	3.3%	.298	3.86	21.3%	13.4%	158	-0.46	2.74	844	54
Tanner Roark R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	30	SP	3.88	21.4%	7.6%	3.0%	.294	4.48	20.3%	13.2%	393	+0.60	3.13	942	53
Miles Mikolas R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	18.8%	4.1%	3.8%	.295	4.02	18.4%	13.4%	266	-0.09	3.13	1,296	52
Iván Nova R 2017 · 4.43 FIP	30	SP	4.43	16.7%	4.3%	4.0%	.294	4.67	15.0%	9.6%	367	+0.24	4.03	810	51
Félix Hernández R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	30	SP	4.42	18.6%	9.9%	3.0%	.265	4.92	19.2%	11.3%	327	+0.50	3.60	682	49
Chris Archer R 2019 · 4.90 FIP	30	SP	4.90	27.2%	10.1%	5.1%	.292	4.39	20.7%	10.4%	136	-0.51	2.85	1,018	48
Christian Bergman R 2018 · 4.37 FIP	30	SP	4.37	15.7%	6.3%	3.3%	.327	7.36	13.2%	6.6%	26	+2.99	3.99	467	47
Jake Arrieta R 2016 · 3.42 FIP	30	SP	3.42	23.9%	9.4%	2.1%	.237	4.07	20.3%	12.6%	477	+0.65	2.13	1,046	47
Jordan Zimmermann R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	30	SP	4.38	14.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.297	4.80	16.8%	11.6%	403	+0.42	3.57	731	45

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	171	18.5%	7.9%	1.49	4.88
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58