Alex Cobb
P
Toledo Mud Hens
+0.3
WAR
Age 38
RHP
6'3" / 205 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.01
FIP4.17
xFIP3.70
SIERA3.87
K%21.1%
BB%7.2%
K-BB%13.9%
IP35
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL6060
CMD5555
K†5555
FB Velo
p4594.2
Whiff%
p1017.1%
K%
p1016.1%
xwOBA vs
p210.346
CH+2.9 (44%)
FB (43%)
SI (43%)
CU (13%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 28 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 13 | 13 | 44 | 207 | 31 | 15 | 8 | 14.0% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 7.63 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| 2017 | 29 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 29 | 29 | 179 | 742 | 128 | 42 | 22 | 17.3% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 3.66 | 4.04 | +2.6 |
| 2018 | 30 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 28 | 28 | 152 | 661 | 102 | 38 | 24 | 15.4% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 4.90 | 4.44 | +1.5 |
| 2019 | 31 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 3 | 3 | 12 | 60 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 13.3% | 3.3% | 14.0% | 10.95 | 10.10 | -0.7 |
| 2020 | 32 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 10 | 10 | 52 | 226 | 38 | 18 | 8 | 16.8% | 8.0% | 3.6% | 4.30 | 4.69 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 33 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 18 | 18 | 93 | 393 | 98 | 33 | 5 | 24.9% | 8.4% | 1.2% | 3.76 | 2.73 | +2.7 |
| 2022 | 34 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 28 | 28 | 150 | 631 | 151 | 43 | 9 | 23.9% | 6.8% | 1.4% | 3.73 | 2.72 | +4.4 |
| 2023 | 35 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 29 | 29 | 155 | 660 | 140 | 37 | 20 | 20.3% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 3.83 | 3.69 | +2.8 |
| 2024 | 36 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 10 | 10 | 39 | 159 | 39 | 12 | 2 | 16.1% | 4.8% | 1.5% | 3.20 | 3.17 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 37 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 10 | 7 | 21 | 84 | 24 | 15 | 1 | — | — | — | 1.74 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 38 | MLB | DET | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 28 | 9 | 4 | 22.1% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 4.00 | 4.09 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | DET | 24 | — | 24 | 101 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 21.2% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 4.16 | 4.27 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 178 | 175 | 898 | 3823 | 737 | 251 | 107 | 19.3% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 3.84 | +14.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 40 | 39 | 200 | 851 | 164 | 56 | 24 | 19.3% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 3.84 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alex Cobb (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.09 | 22.1% | 7.2% | 2.8% | — | 4.27 | 21.2% | 13.7% | 24 | +0.18 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Madson R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 37 | SW | 3.47 | 23.4% | 6.1% | 2.9% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.43 | 240 | 71 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 69 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.55 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 2.6% | .179 | 4.12 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.57 | 3.55 | 164 | 67 |
| Logan Ondrusek R 2024 · 4.34 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.34 | 19.2% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 138 | 65 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.65 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.6% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 64 |
| Ervin Santana R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.32 | 18.8% | 7.6% | 3.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 720 | 62 |
| Ronald Belisario R 2024 · 4.18 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.18 | 12.7% | 3.9% | 3.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 126 | 61 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 3.07 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.07 | 23.2% | 13.3% | 0.4% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 102 | 60 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.58 | 18.9% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .211 | 4.94 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 28 | +1.36 | 3.11 | 174 | 59 |
| Matt Belisle R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.33 | 15.4% | 6.2% | 3.2% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 174 | 58 |
| Erubiel Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.48 | 13.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | .388 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 119 | 57 |
| Joe Blanton R 2024 · 5.01 FIP | 36 | SU | 5.01 | 20.0% | 5.6% | 5.2% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 240 | 57 |
| Hector Navarro R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.47 | 11.5% | 5.6% | 1.1% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 126 | 56 |
| Logan Duran R 2025 · 3.65 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.65 | 15.5% | 8.9% | 1.3% | .427 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 187 | 55 |
| Zack Segovia R 2024 · 4.52 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.52 | 17.6% | 13.6% | 2.2% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 144 | 55 |
| Luis Ayala R 2026 · 3.01 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.01 | 10.9% | 4.5% | 0.5% | .320 | 3.97 | 15.9% | 4.2% | 14 | +0.96 | 3.01 | 119 | 51 |
| Chien-Ming Wang R 2024 · 4.56 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.56 | 13.0% | 7.8% | 2.9% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 183 | 51 |
| Lorenzo Barcelo R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.38 | 12.8% | 1.1% | 2.2% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 199 | 51 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 37 | SW | 5.01 | 14.8% | 6.0% | 4.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.01 | 211 | 51 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.16 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 1.0% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 219 | 51 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.