Alex Cobb — OGILVIE

Alex Cobb P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 38 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA4.15

FIP4.19

K%19.8%

BB%6.1%

K-BB%13.7%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4594.2

Whiff%

p1017.1%

p1016.1%

xwOBA vs

p210.346

CH+2.9 (44%)

FB (43%)

SI (43%)

CU (13%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	13	44	207	31	15	8	100%	3.4	14.0%	6.9%	7.1%	4.5%	7.63	5.26	-0.2
2016	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	13	44	207	31	15	8	100%	3.4	15.0%	7.2%	7.7%	3.9%	7.63	5.09	-0.1
2017	29	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	29	29	179	742	128	42	22	100%	6.2	17.3%	5.7%	11.6%	3.0%	3.66	4.03	+1.8
2017	29	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	29	29	179	742	128	42	22	100%	6.2	17.3%	5.7%	11.6%	3.0%	3.66	3.97	+2.0
2018	30	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	28	28	152	661	102	38	24	100%	5.4	15.4%	5.7%	9.7%	3.3%	4.90	4.32	+1.0
2018	30	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	28	28	152	661	102	38	24	100%	5.4	15.4%	5.7%	9.7%	3.6%	4.90	4.56	+0.6
2019	31	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	3	3	12	60	8	2	9	100%	4.1	13.3%	3.3%	10.0%	13.5%	10.95	9.83	-0.7
2019	31	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	3	3	12	60	8	2	9	100%	4.1	13.3%	3.3%	10.0%	15.0%	10.95	11.78	-0.9
2020	32	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	10	10	52	226	38	18	8	100%	5.2	16.8%	8.0%	8.8%	3.2%	4.30	4.44	+0.3
2020	32	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	10	10	52	226	38	18	8	100%	5.2	16.8%	8.0%	8.8%	3.5%	4.30	4.67	+0.1
2021	33	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	18	18	93	393	98	33	5	100%	5.2	24.9%	8.4%	16.5%	1.2%	3.76	2.74	+2.5
2021	33	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	18	18	93	393	98	33	5	100%	5.2	24.9%	8.4%	16.5%	1.3%	3.76	2.76	+2.5
2022	34	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	28	28	150	631	151	43	9	100%	5.3	23.9%	6.8%	17.1%	1.5%	3.73	2.79	+4.0
2022	34	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	28	28	150	631	151	43	9	100%	5.3	23.9%	6.8%	17.1%	1.4%	3.73	2.73	+4.1
2023	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	155	660	140	37	20	100%	5.3	20.3%	5.7%	14.6%	3.2%	3.83	3.86	+1.9
2023	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	155	660	140	37	20	100%	5.3	20.3%	5.7%	14.6%	3.2%	3.83	3.86	+1.9
2023	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	155	660	140	37	20	100%	5.3	21.2%	5.6%	15.6%	3.0%	3.83	3.69	+2.3
2024	36	MIX MLE	4 levels	10	10	39	159	39	12	2	100%	3.9	16.1%	4.8%	11.3%	1.6%	3.20	3.24	+0.8
2024	36	MIX MLE	4 levels	10	10	39	159	39	12	2	100%	3.9	16.1%	4.8%	11.3%	1.6%	3.20	3.24	+0.8
2024	36	MIX RAW	4 levels	10	10	39	159	39	12	2	100%	3.9	24.5%	7.5%	17.0%	1.3%	3.20	2.69	+1.1
2025	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	7	21	84	24	15	1	70%	2.1	28.6%	17.9%	10.7%	1.2%	1.74	3.60	—
2025	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	7	21	84	24	15	1	70%	2.1	28.6%	17.9%	10.7%	1.2%	1.74	3.60	—
2025	37	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	7	21	84	24	15	1	70%	2.1	28.6%	17.9%	10.7%	1.2%	1.74	3.58	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			152	152	829	3525	682	223	102	100%	5.5	19.3%	6.3%	13.0%	2.9%	4.21	3.86	+10.3
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	38	MLB	DET	1	1	3	13	3	1	0	100%	3.0	19.8%	6.1%	13.7%	2.9%	4.15	4.19	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	39	MLB MLE	DET	5	5	30	127	24	9	4	100%	6.0	18.6%	6.8%	11.8%	3.4%	4.43	4.62	+0.1
2027	39	MLB CTX	DET	5	5	30	127	24	9	4	100%	6.0	18.6%	6.8%	11.8%	3.4%	4.43	4.62	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		157	157	859	3652	706	232	106	100%	5.5	19.3%	6.3%	13.0%	2.9%	4.22	3.87	+10.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	37	200	850	164	54	25	100%	5.5	19.3%	6.3%	13.0%	2.9%	4.22	3.87	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		178	175	898	3823	737	251	108	98%	5.0	19.3%	6.6%	12.7%	2.8%	4.19	3.85	+10.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	39	200	851	164	56	24	98%	5.0	19.3%	6.6%	12.7%	2.8%	4.19	3.85	+2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Cobb (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.19	19.8%	6.1%	2.9%	—	4.62	18.6%	11.8%	30	+0.43	—	—	—
Logan Ondrusek R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	36	SP	4.34	19.2%	7.3%	3.5%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	4.34	138	65
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	428	62
Kyle Lohse R 2016 · 4.97 FIP	37	SP	4.97	14.8%	6.0%	4.3%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	211	57
Lorenzo Barcelo R 2016 · 3.48 FIP	38	SP	3.48	12.8%	1.1%	2.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	199	55
Jeremy Guthrie R 2016 · 4.85 FIP	37	SP	4.85	11.6%	8.6%	3.0%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	4.85	235	52
Sergio Mitre R 2019 · 4.54 FIP	38	SP	4.54	11.8%	6.5%	2.9%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	4.54	156	51
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	48
Brad Penny R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	37	SP	3.68	12.0%	5.8%	1.6%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	135	48
Ryan Vogelsong R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	38	SP-	4.45	18.1%	9.4%	3.1%	.295	4.79	16.7%	6.3%	82	+0.34	4.45	217	46
Colby Lewis R 2016 · 4.67 FIP	36	SP	4.67	15.5%	5.9%	3.9%	.239	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	321	46
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	45
Tim Hudson R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	40	SP	4.41	12.2%	6.9%	2.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	124	45
Adam Wainwright R 2020 · 4.11 FIP	38	SP	4.11	20.6%	5.7%	3.7%	.245	3.99	17.8%	11.2%	499	-0.12	2.03	1,127	42
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	42
A.J. Burnett R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	38	SP	3.16	20.5%	6.7%	1.7%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	164	40
Chris Smith R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	36	SP-	5.08	15.6%	7.5%	4.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	413	36
John Lackey R 2017 · 5.05 FIP	38	SP	5.05	20.4%	6.8%	5.1%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	577	36
Aaron Harang R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	37	SP	4.47	14.4%	6.4%	3.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	172	35
Jonathan Sánchez L 2019 · 4.73 FIP	36	SP	4.73	18.1%	8.3%	3.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	109	31
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	30

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	33	19.2%	6.4%	1.21	4.28
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86