Alex Cobb
P
Toledo Mud Hens
Age 38
RHP
6'3" / 205 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 40 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114105vR 96
ERA4.15
FIP4.19
K%19.8%
BB%6.1%
K-BB%13.7%
ROS IP41
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4594.2
Whiff%
p1017.1%
K%
p1016.1%
xwOBA vs
p210.346
CH+2.9 (44%)
FB (43%)
SI (43%)
CU (13%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 13 | 13 | 44 | 207 | 31 | 15 | 8 | 100% | 3.4 | 14.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 7.63 | 5.20 | -0.3 |
| 2016 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 13 | 13 | 44 | 207 | 31 | 15 | 8 | 100% | 3.4 | 15.0% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 3.9% | 7.63 | 5.09 | -0.3 |
| 2017 | 29 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 29 | 29 | 179 | 742 | 128 | 42 | 22 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.3% | 5.7% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 3.66 | 4.08 | +2.8 |
| 2017 | 29 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 29 | 29 | 179 | 742 | 128 | 42 | 22 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.3% | 5.7% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 3.66 | 3.97 | +3.0 |
| 2018 | 30 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 28 | 28 | 152 | 661 | 102 | 38 | 24 | 100% | 5.4 | 15.4% | 5.7% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 4.90 | 4.38 | +1.8 |
| 2018 | 30 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 28 | 28 | 152 | 661 | 102 | 38 | 24 | 100% | 5.4 | 15.4% | 5.7% | 9.7% | 3.6% | 4.90 | 4.56 | +1.5 |
| 2019 | 31 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 3 | 3 | 12 | 60 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 100% | 4.1 | 13.3% | 3.3% | 10.0% | 14.0% | 10.95 | 10.06 | -0.8 |
| 2019 | 31 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 3 | 3 | 12 | 60 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 100% | 4.1 | 13.3% | 3.3% | 10.0% | 15.0% | 10.95 | 11.78 | -1.0 |
| 2020 | 32 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 10 | 10 | 52 | 226 | 38 | 18 | 8 | 100% | 5.2 | 16.8% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 4.30 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| 2020 | 32 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 10 | 10 | 52 | 226 | 38 | 18 | 8 | 100% | 5.2 | 16.8% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 4.30 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 33 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 18 | 18 | 93 | 393 | 98 | 33 | 5 | 100% | 5.2 | 24.9% | 8.4% | 16.5% | 1.3% | 3.76 | 2.78 | +2.7 |
| 2021 | 33 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 18 | 18 | 93 | 393 | 98 | 33 | 5 | 100% | 5.2 | 24.9% | 8.4% | 16.5% | 1.3% | 3.76 | 2.76 | +2.7 |
| 2022 | 34 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 28 | 28 | 150 | 631 | 151 | 43 | 9 | 100% | 5.3 | 23.9% | 6.8% | 17.1% | 1.6% | 3.73 | 2.79 | +4.6 |
| 2022 | 34 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 28 | 28 | 150 | 631 | 151 | 43 | 9 | 100% | 5.3 | 23.9% | 6.8% | 17.1% | 1.4% | 3.73 | 2.73 | +4.7 |
| 2023 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 155 | 660 | 140 | 37 | 20 | 100% | 5.3 | 20.3% | 5.7% | 14.6% | 3.2% | 3.83 | 3.87 | +2.8 |
| 2023 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 155 | 660 | 140 | 37 | 20 | 100% | 5.3 | 21.2% | 5.6% | 15.6% | 3.0% | 3.83 | 3.69 | +3.1 |
| 2024 | 36 | MIX | 4 levels | 10 | 10 | 39 | 159 | 39 | 12 | 2 | 100% | 3.9 | 16.1% | 4.8% | 11.3% | 1.6% | 3.20 | 3.24 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 36 | MIX | 4 levels | 10 | 10 | 39 | 159 | 39 | 12 | 2 | 100% | 3.9 | 24.5% | 7.5% | 17.0% | 1.3% | 3.20 | 2.69 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 37 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 7 | 21 | 84 | 24 | 15 | 1 | 70% | 2.1 | 28.6% | 17.9% | 10.7% | 1.2% | 1.74 | 3.60 | — |
| 2025 | 37 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 7 | 21 | 84 | 24 | 15 | 1 | 70% | 2.1 | 28.6% | 17.9% | 10.7% | 1.2% | 1.74 | 3.58 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 38 | MLB | DET | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 29 | 9 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.8% | 6.1% | 13.7% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 4.19 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | DET | 5 | 5 | 30 | 127 | 24 | 9 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.6% | 6.8% | 11.8% | 3.4% | 4.43 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | DET | 5 | 5 | 30 | 127 | 24 | 9 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.6% | 6.8% | 11.8% | 3.4% | 4.43 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 157 | 157 | 859 | 3652 | 706 | 232 | 106 | 100% | 5.5 | 19.3% | 6.3% | 13.0% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 3.87 | +15.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 37 | 200 | 850 | 164 | 54 | 25 | 100% | 5.5 | 19.3% | 6.3% | 13.0% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 3.87 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 178 | 175 | 898 | 3823 | 737 | 251 | 110 | 98% | 5.0 | 19.3% | 6.6% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.19 | 3.88 | +15.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 40 | 39 | 200 | 851 | 164 | 56 | 25 | 98% | 5.0 | 19.3% | 6.6% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.19 | 3.88 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alex Cobb (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.19 | 19.8% | 6.1% | 2.9% | — | 4.62 | 18.6% | 11.8% | 30 | +0.43 | — | — | — |
| Logan Ondrusek R 2024 · 4.35 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.35 | 19.2% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.35 | 138 | 65 |
| Walter Silva R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.95 | 14.8% | 7.4% | 2.1% | .311 | 3.96 | 10.4% | 3.7% | 209 | +0.01 | 3.68 | 428 | 62 |
| Lorenzo Barcelo R 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.27 | 12.8% | 1.1% | 2.0% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 199 | 55 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano R 2024 · 5.23 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.23 | 13.4% | 6.4% | 4.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.91 | 241 | 53 |
| Sergio Mitre R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 38 | SP | 4.48 | 11.8% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.48 | 156 | 51 |
| Jeremy Guthrie R 2025 · 5.00 FIP | 37 | SP | 5.00 | 11.6% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.00 | 235 | 49 |
| Yasutomo Kubo R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.67 | 20.4% | 4.7% | 3.1% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 152 | 48 |
| Brad Penny R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 37 | SP | 3.52 | 12.0% | 5.8% | 1.3% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 135 | 47 |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.46 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .295 | 4.67 | 16.7% | 6.3% | 82 | +0.21 | 4.46 | 217 | 46 |
| Pablo Ortega R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 38 | SP | 4.41 | 8.6% | 7.3% | 2.0% | .291 | 4.33 | 11.5% | 6.0% | 236 | -0.08 | 3.92 | 375 | 45 |
| Tim Hudson R 2028 · 4.42 FIP | 40 | SP | 4.42 | 12.2% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 124 | 45 |
| Colby Lewis R 2024 · 4.70 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.70 | 15.5% | 5.9% | 3.9% | .239 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 321 | 43 |
| Adam Wainwright R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.98 | 20.6% | 5.7% | 3.5% | .245 | 3.89 | 17.8% | 11.2% | 499 | -0.09 | 2.03 | 1,127 | 43 |
| Logan Duran R 2025 · 3.58 FIP | 37 | SP- | 3.58 | 15.5% | 8.9% | 1.2% | .427 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 187 | 41 |
| A.J. Burnett R 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.10 | 20.5% | 6.7% | 1.6% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 164 | 40 |
| John Lackey R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 38 | SP | 4.88 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 4.8% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 577 | 39 |
| Chris Smith R 2024 · 5.11 FIP | 36 | SP- | 5.11 | 15.6% | 7.5% | 4.3% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 413 | 35 |
| Aaron Harang R 2025 · 4.54 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.54 | 14.4% | 6.4% | 3.4% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 172 | 34 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.65 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 109 | 32 |
| Jonathan Castellanos R 2025 · 5.02 FIP | 37 | SW | 5.02 | 11.0% | 9.0% | 3.1% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 394 | 31 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 33 | 19.2% | 6.4% | 1.22 | 4.28 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Jarlín García ('22) | 5 | 61 | 19.6% | 7.8% | 1.33 | 3.79 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Austin Pruitt ('23) | 5 | 61 | 16.9% | 5.6% | 1.22 | 4.45 |