OGILVIE · 2026 actuals vs 2027 projection

Improvers

Each row compares a player's 2026 MLB rate (ACTUAL) with the current 2027 projected rate (PROJ). Score = (actual − projected) × √(sample size). Positive = beat the projection; negative = fell short. Hitters use OPS; pitchers use ERA (sign flipped, lower ERA counts as improvement). Minimum 80 PA (hitters) / 15 IP (pitchers). 481 hitters and 584 pitchers qualify. Generated 2026-10-28 07:46.

Hitters

Improvers — top 30

#	Player	2026 OPS	PROJ	Δ OPS	Score
1	Ty France SD · 500 PA · 21 HR	0.865	0.734	+0.131	+2.9
2	Eduardo Valencia DET · 138 PA · 8 HR	1.015	0.776	+0.239	+2.8
3	Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC · 726 PA · 45 HR	0.943	0.839	+0.104	+2.8
4	Yordan Alvarez HOU · 692 PA · 42 HR	1.033	0.928	+0.105	+2.8
5	Tyrone Taylor CHC · 241 PA · 11 HR	0.827	0.670	+0.157	+2.4
6	Andrés Chaparro WSH · 228 PA · 13 HR	0.885	0.724	+0.161	+2.4
7	Endy Rodríguez PIT · 159 PA · 7 HR	0.840	0.661	+0.179	+2.3
8	Esmerlyn Valdez PIT · 287 PA · 17 HR	0.855	0.724	+0.131	+2.2
9	Jake Bauers MIL · 578 PA · 26 HR	0.874	0.783	+0.091	+2.2
10	Keibert Ruiz WSH · 354 PA · 10 HR	0.759	0.643	+0.116	+2.2
11	Brett Bateman TOR · 181 PA · 2 HR	0.826	0.670	+0.156	+2.1
12	Justin Foscue TEX · 247 PA · 11 HR	0.816	0.683	+0.133	+2.1
13	Joey Wiemer WSH · 83 PA · 3 HR	0.912	0.685	+0.227	+2.1
14	Nick Allen HOU · 162 PA · 3 HR	0.720	0.561	+0.159	+2.0
15	Christian Encarnacion-Strand BAL · 213 PA · 11 HR	0.838	0.708	+0.130	+1.9
16	Rafael Flores Jr. PIT · 163 PA · 11 HR	0.858	0.710	+0.148	+1.9
17	Randy Arozarena SEA · 670 PA · 26 HR	0.865	0.793	+0.072	+1.9
18	Andrew Vaughn MIL · 331 PA · 6 HR	0.834	0.732	+0.102	+1.9
19	Chase Meidroth CWS · 643 PA · 16 HR	0.765	0.694	+0.071	+1.8
20	TJ Rumfield COL · 631 PA · 16 HR	0.843	0.772	+0.071	+1.8
21	Jonny DeLuca TB · 370 PA · 11 HR	0.728	0.636	+0.092	+1.8
22	Nolan Arenado ARI · 599 PA · 30 HR	0.806	0.734	+0.072	+1.8
23	Ezequiel Duran TEX · 597 PA · 17 HR	0.740	0.669	+0.071	+1.7
24	Isaac Paredes HOU · 659 PA · 25 HR	0.806	0.739	+0.067	+1.7
25	Austin Hedges CLE · 247 PA · 6 HR	0.702	0.596	+0.106	+1.7
26	Zack Gelof OAK · 435 PA · 22 HR	0.796	0.718	+0.078	+1.6
27	Angel Martínez CLE · 416 PA · 18 HR	0.756	0.676	+0.080	+1.6
28	Bryce Eldridge SF · 448 PA · 17 HR	0.825	0.750	+0.075	+1.6
29	Nick Fortes TB · 323 PA · 6 HR	0.680	0.592	+0.088	+1.6
30	Tyler Tolbert KC · 148 PA · 3 HR	0.740	0.610	+0.130	+1.6

Underperforming — bottom 30

#	Player	2026 OPS	PROJ	Δ OPS	Score
1	Jorge Polanco NYM · 145 PA · 2 HR	0.431	0.705	-0.274	-3.3
2	Ha-Seong Kim ATL · 147 PA · 0 HR	0.359	0.626	-0.267	-3.2
3	Ke'Bryan Hayes CIN · 242 PA · 5 HR	0.419	0.620	-0.201	-3.1
4	Rafael Marchán PHI · 95 PA · 2 HR	0.302	0.615	-0.313	-3.0
5	Ketel Marte ARI · 624 PA · 22 HR	0.748	0.869	-0.121	-3.0
6	Tyler Heineman LAA · 200 PA · 1 HR	0.444	0.650	-0.206	-2.9
7	Brent Rooker OAK · 203 PA · 10 HR	0.670	0.858	-0.188	-2.7
8	Austin Wynns TEX · 89 PA · 1 HR	0.378	0.659	-0.281	-2.6
9	Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR · 609 PA · 9 HR	0.688	0.795	-0.107	-2.6
10	Aaron Judge NYY · 285 PA · 18 HR	0.871	1.026	-0.155	-2.6
11	Carlos Narváez BAL · 285 PA · 3 HR	0.467	0.619	-0.152	-2.6
12	Jarren Duran BOS · 608 PA · 20 HR	0.627	0.730	-0.103	-2.5
13	Gunnar Henderson BAL · 702 PA · 24 HR	0.712	0.803	-0.091	-2.4
14	Cal Raleigh SEA · 530 PA · 23 HR	0.664	0.768	-0.104	-2.4
15	Corey Seager TEX · 436 PA · 20 HR	0.736	0.850	-0.114	-2.4
16	Matt Wallner MIN · 135 PA · 4 HR	0.551	0.754	-0.203	-2.4
17	Marcell Ozuna PIT · 280 PA · 8 HR	0.612	0.748	-0.136	-2.3
18	Leo Rivas SEA · 148 PA · 0 HR	0.461	0.644	-0.183	-2.2
19	Christopher Morel NYM · 105 PA · 1 HR	0.473	0.687	-0.214	-2.2
20	Luisangel Acuña CWS · 224 PA · 2 HR	0.537	0.681	-0.144	-2.2
21	Adrian Del Castillo ARI · 197 PA · 5 HR	0.556	0.710	-0.154	-2.2
22	Nasim Nuñez WSH · 493 PA · 1 HR	0.535	0.632	-0.097	-2.1
23	TJ Friedl CIN · 272 PA · 4 HR	0.510	0.640	-0.130	-2.1
24	Trea Turner PHI · 700 PA · 19 HR	0.675	0.755	-0.080	-2.1
25	Christian Yelich MIL · 500 PA · 12 HR	0.692	0.786	-0.094	-2.1
26	Drew Romo CWS · 206 PA · 7 HR	0.535	0.676	-0.141	-2.0
27	Trent Grisham NYY · 484 PA · 18 HR	0.703	0.793	-0.090	-2.0
28	J.T. Realmuto PHI · 467 PA · 11 HR	0.614	0.705	-0.091	-2.0
29	Matt Vierling DET · 291 PA · 5 HR	0.590	0.704	-0.114	-1.9
30	Pavin Smith ARI · 122 PA · 3 HR	0.556	0.728	-0.172	-1.9

Pitchers

Improvers — top 30

#	Pitcher	2026 ERA	PROJ	Δ ERA	Score
1	Paul Blackburn NYY · 85.0 IP · 7.3 K/9	1.59	4.10	+2.51	+23.1
2	Eduardo Rodriguez ARI · 189.7 IP · 6.8 K/9	2.89	4.35	+1.46	+20.1
3	Cal Quantrill TEX · 110.0 IP · 6.6 K/9	2.86	4.66	+1.80	+18.9
4	DL Hall MIL · 61.3 IP · 9.4 K/9	1.91	4.32	+2.41	+18.9
5	Yuki Matsui SD · 64.0 IP · 9.6 K/9	1.83	4.13	+2.30	+18.4
6	Louis Varland TOR · 78.0 IP · 11.2 K/9	1.27	3.27	+2.00	+17.7
7	Martín Pérez ATL · 142.0 IP · 6.5 K/9	3.04	4.51	+1.47	+17.5
8	Bryan Baker TB · 62.3 IP · 9.1 K/9	1.44	3.62	+2.18	+17.2
9	Ben Brown CHC · 68.0 IP · 8.6 K/9	1.85	3.79	+1.94	+16.0
10	Max Meyer MIA · 111.0 IP · 9.8 K/9	2.68	4.13	+1.45	+15.3
11	Ryan Rolison CHC · 63.0 IP · 7.9 K/9	3.14	5.04	+1.90	+15.1
12	Cam Schlittler NYY · 193.7 IP · 11.1 K/9	1.95	2.98	+1.03	+14.3
13	Gordon Graceffo STL · 81.0 IP · 7.0 K/9	2.67	4.23	+1.56	+14.0
14	Troy Melton DET · 114.3 IP · 7.4 K/9	2.76	4.07	+1.31	+14.0
15	Wyatt Olds BOS · 15.7 IP · 11.5 K/9	1.15	4.68	+3.53	+14.0
16	Hagen Smith CWS · 28.0 IP · 13.2 K/9	1.29	3.93	+2.64	+14.0
17	Alec Gamboa BOS · 33.0 IP · 6.3 K/9	1.91	4.31	+2.40	+13.8
18	Brock Burke CIN · 74.3 IP · 9.0 K/9	2.30	3.88	+1.58	+13.6
19	Tyler Phillips MIA · 126.7 IP · 7.2 K/9	3.34	4.55	+1.21	+13.6
20	Alimber Santa HOU · 15.3 IP · 5.3 K/9	1.17	4.60	+3.43	+13.4
21	Tyler Rogers TOR · 71.0 IP · 5.1 K/9	1.77	3.36	+1.59	+13.4
22	Sonny Gray BOS · 169.0 IP · 7.9 K/9	2.72	3.75	+1.03	+13.4
23	Josh Hader HOU · 44.7 IP · 11.1 K/9	1.01	2.97	+1.96	+13.1
24	Robert Suarez ATL · 34.0 IP · 6.9 K/9	1.06	3.27	+2.21	+12.9
25	Jacob Latz TEX · 72.0 IP · 10.4 K/9	2.12	3.61	+1.49	+12.6
26	Grant Holmes ATL · 151.7 IP · 6.8 K/9	3.44	4.46	+1.02	+12.6
27	Jacob Waguespack DET · 47.0 IP · 6.7 K/9	2.49	4.32	+1.83	+12.6
28	Nick Martinez TB · 180.0 IP · 5.5 K/9	3.10	4.03	+0.93	+12.5
29	Michael Wacha KC · 200.7 IP · 7.1 K/9	3.32	4.20	+0.88	+12.5
30	Brandon Young BAL · 156.7 IP · 7.6 K/9	3.56	4.55	+0.99	+12.4

Underperforming — bottom 30

#	Pitcher	2026 ERA	PROJ	Δ ERA	Score
1	Luis Morales OAK · 16.0 IP · 7.3 K/9	13.50	5.25	-8.25	-33.0
2	Kade Morris OAK · 17.3 IP · 5.2 K/9	10.90	4.65	-6.25	-26.0
3	Michael Lorenzen TOR · 127.3 IP · 6.4 K/9	7.21	5.10	-2.11	-23.8
4	Edwin Díaz LAD · 18.7 IP · 13.5 K/9	8.68	3.24	-5.44	-23.5
5	Aaron Bummer KC · 16.7 IP · 7.0 K/9	10.26	4.51	-5.75	-23.5
6	Matt Svanson STL · 43.3 IP · 8.5 K/9	7.27	3.98	-3.29	-21.6
7	Sean Sullivan COL · 22.3 IP · 6.4 K/9	8.87	4.34	-4.53	-21.4
8	Kyle Freeland COL · 135.3 IP · 7.2 K/9	6.65	4.84	-1.81	-21.1
9	Kodai Senga NYM · 61.3 IP · 11.0 K/9	7.34	4.80	-2.54	-19.9
10	Jayden Murray CHC · 16.3 IP · 7.7 K/9	9.37	4.51	-4.86	-19.6
11	Jason Alexander HOU · 18.3 IP · 6.9 K/9	9.33	4.83	-4.50	-19.2
12	Ryan Walker SF · 32.7 IP · 6.3 K/9	7.16	3.92	-3.24	-18.5
13	Max Kranick WSH · 18.3 IP · 5.4 K/9	9.33	5.04	-4.29	-18.4
14	Jack Perkins OAK · 121.0 IP · 10.4 K/9	6.10	4.47	-1.63	-17.9
15	Hayden Juenger OAK · 16.0 IP · 3.4 K/9	9.00	4.57	-4.43	-17.7
16	Hunter Greene CIN · 27.7 IP · 10.7 K/9	6.83	3.47	-3.36	-17.7
17	Luis García MIN · 15.0 IP · 3.6 K/9	9.00	4.47	-4.53	-17.5
18	Tanner Gordon COL · 103.7 IP · 7.4 K/9	6.68	5.07	-1.61	-16.4
19	Garrett Crochet BOS · 30.0 IP · 11.1 K/9	6.30	3.33	-2.97	-16.3
20	Luis Castillo CWS · 130.7 IP · 7.7 K/9	5.85	4.46	-1.39	-15.9
21	Gabriel Hughes COL · 64.0 IP · 7.9 K/9	6.33	4.39	-1.94	-15.5
22	Jake Woodford TB · 27.7 IP · 8.1 K/9	7.81	5.00	-2.81	-14.8
23	Simeon Woods Richardson TOR · 66.0 IP · 5.5 K/9	6.68	4.91	-1.77	-14.4
24	Brady Singer CIN · 157.0 IP · 7.2 K/9	5.85	4.72	-1.13	-14.2
25	José Alvarado PHI · 58.3 IP · 10.8 K/9	5.86	4.02	-1.84	-14.1
26	Pete Fairbanks MIA · 41.3 IP · 12.4 K/9	6.31	4.14	-2.17	-13.9
27	Grayson Rodriguez LAA · 98.7 IP · 7.8 K/9	6.02	4.65	-1.37	-13.6
28	Chris Paddack TEX · 57.0 IP · 6.3 K/9	6.79	5.00	-1.79	-13.5
29	Matt Waldron WSH · 42.7 IP · 7.0 K/9	6.54	4.49	-2.05	-13.4
30	Rhett Lowder CIN · 133.3 IP · 7.0 K/9	5.74	4.58	-1.16	-13.4