Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 20 | 104 | 448 | 73 | 26 | 6 | 100% | 5.2 | 14.9% | 5.9% | 9.0% | 1.1% | 4.49 | 3.18 | +2.7 |
| 2015 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 20 | 104 | 448 | 73 | 26 | 6 | 100% | 5.2 | 16.3% | 5.8% | 10.5% | 1.3% | 4.49 | 3.20 | +2.7 |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 33 | 33 | 199 | 855 | 103 | 76 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 12.0% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 4.39 | 4.34 | +2.5 |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 33 | 33 | 199 | 855 | 103 | 76 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 12.0% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +2.4 |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 32 | 32 | 185 | 811 | 115 | 60 | 23 | 100% | 5.8 | 14.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 4.82 | 4.36 | +2.3 |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 32 | 32 | 185 | 811 | 115 | 60 | 23 | 100% | 5.8 | 14.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 4.82 | 4.45 | +2.1 |
| 2018 | 27 | MIX | 4 levels | 25 | 18 | 103 | 462 | 71 | 38 | 17 | 72% | 4.1 | 13.1% | 8.8% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.26 | 5.27 | +0.2 |
| 2018 | 27 | MIX | 4 levels | 25 | 18 | 103 | 462 | 71 | 38 | 17 | 72% | 4.1 | 15.4% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 3.7% | 5.26 | 4.98 | +0.5 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 32 | 29 | 165 | 737 | 135 | 66 | 23 | 91% | 5.2 | 18.3% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 5.12 | 4.38 | +2.0 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 32 | 29 | 165 | 737 | 135 | 66 | 23 | 91% | 5.2 | 18.3% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 5.12 | 4.47 | +1.8 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 12 | 12 | 62 | 262 | 46 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 5.2 | 17.6% | 10.7% | 6.9% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 12 | 12 | 62 | 262 | 46 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 5.2 | 17.6% | 10.7% | 6.9% | 3.1% | 4.50 | 4.65 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 22 | 115 | 513 | 98 | 34 | 19 | 59% | 3.1 | 19.1% | 6.7% | 12.4% | 3.7% | 4.70 | 4.37 | +1.4 |
| 2021 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 22 | 115 | 513 | 98 | 34 | 19 | 59% | 3.1 | 19.1% | 6.6% | 12.5% | 3.7% | 4.70 | 4.43 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 32 | 32 | 196 | 821 | 169 | 69 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 12.2% | 1.3% | 2.89 | 3.14 | +5.2 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 32 | 32 | 196 | 821 | 169 | 69 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 12.2% | 1.3% | 2.89 | 3.16 | +5.1 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 35 | 20 | 142 | 608 | 93 | 48 | 21 | 57% | 4.0 | 15.3% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 3.4% | 4.45 | 4.66 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 35 | 20 | 142 | 608 | 93 | 48 | 21 | 57% | 4.0 | 15.3% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 3.5% | 4.45 | 4.73 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 140 | 609 | 111 | 49 | 22 | 100% | 5.2 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 4.0% | 4.44 | 4.82 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 140 | 609 | 111 | 49 | 22 | 100% | 5.2 | 18.2% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 3.6% | 4.44 | 4.61 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 34 | MIX | 3 levels | 13 | 12 | 63 | 257 | 49 | 25 | 7 | 92% | 4.8 | 19.3% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 2.5% | 3.59 | 4.09 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 34 | MIX | 3 levels | 13 | 12 | 63 | 257 | 49 | 25 | 7 | 92% | 4.8 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 3.59 | 4.19 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 18 | 14 | 81 | 333 | 62 | 31 | 10 | 78% | 4.5 | 18.6% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 3.54 | 4.36 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | ATL | 9 | 9 | 54 | 229 | 41 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.1% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 4.22 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | ATL | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 41 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.1% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 4.22 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 35 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 136 | 562 | 103 | 52 | 17 | — | — | 18.4% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 3.81 | 4.39 | +1.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 35 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 136 | 572 | 103 | 52 | 17 | — | — | 18.1% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 3.81 | 4.37 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | ATL | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 49 | 28 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 16.9% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 4.98 | 5.22 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | ATL | 10 | 10 | 59 | 250 | 40 | 26 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 15.8% | 10.3% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 5.36 | 5.62 | -0.7 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | ATL | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 32 | 24 | 9 | 100% | 6.4 | 14.7% | 11.0% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.77 | 6.05 | -0.9 |
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | ATL | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 49 | 28 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 16.9% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 4.98 | 5.22 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | ATL | 10 | 10 | 59 | 249 | 39 | 26 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 15.8% | 10.3% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 5.36 | 5.62 | -0.7 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | ATL | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 32 | 24 | 9 | 100% | 6.4 | 14.7% | 11.0% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.77 | 6.05 | -0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 342 | 298 | 1732 | 7472 | 1232 | 639 | 217 | 87% | 5.1 | 16.5% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 4.50 | 4.38 | +20.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 40 | 34 | 200 | 863 | 142 | 74 | 25 | 87% | 5.1 | 16.5% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 4.50 | 4.38 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 316 | 271 | 1555 | 6716 | 1108 | 555 | 185 | 86% | 4.9 | 16.5% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.26 | +20.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 35 | 200 | 864 | 143 | 71 | 24 | 86% | 4.9 | 16.5% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.26 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Martín Pérez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.94 | 17.2% | 8.8% | 3.3% | — | 5.59 | 15.9% | 5.7% | 178 | +0.65 | — | — | — |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 101 | 58 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.65 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 109 | 57 |
| Orlando Lara L 2025 · 4.05 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.05 | 22.0% | 7.8% | 3.3% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 426 | 55 |
| Chris Narveson L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.40 | 12.2% | 10.4% | 1.8% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 249 | 54 |
| Daniel Rodriguez L 2025 · 4.74 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.74 | 20.8% | 7.8% | 4.4% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 391 | 54 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2028 · 4.15 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.15 | 13.6% | 9.9% | 1.7% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 149 | 53 |
| Marlon Arias L 2025 · 5.09 FIP | 34 | SP | 5.09 | 19.8% | 11.2% | 4.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 154 | 53 |
| Eric Stults L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.25 | 14.5% | 5.9% | 2.9% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 138 | 52 |
| Kwang Hyun Kim L 2024 · 4.11 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.11 | 17.7% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 146 | 52 |
| Jorge De La Rosa L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.34 | 17.3% | 10.1% | 2.6% | .315 | 4.01 | 19.9% | 11.2% | 107 | -0.33 | 3.68 | 405 | 52 |
| Clayton Richard L 2026 · 5.77 FIP | 35 | SP | 5.77 | 10.9% | 9.0% | 4.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 574 | 51 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.63 | 11.2% | 6.7% | 3.0% | .337 | 5.23 | 19.6% | 11.5% | 119 | +0.60 | 4.40 | 408 | 50 |
| C.J. Wilson L 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.77 | 19.9% | 8.0% | 2.4% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 132 | 50 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.24 | 10.3% | 5.4% | 2.4% | .342 | 5.22 | 12.2% | 5.4% | 117 | +0.98 | 4.24 | 445 | 50 |
| Oscar Rivera L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.00 | 10.7% | 7.2% | 1.6% | .309 | 5.36 | 9.8% | 2.0% | 42 | +1.36 | 3.85 | 237 | 50 |
| Tomas Solis L 2025 · 5.86 FIP | 34 | SP | 5.86 | 11.3% | 7.9% | 4.9% | .322 | 7.02 | 8.9% | 1.4% | 57 | +1.16 | 4.35 | 327 | 48 |
| Barry Zito L 2028 · 4.80 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.80 | 13.6% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 138 | 48 |
| Jason Vargas L 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.71 | 20.8% | 7.2% | 4.5% | .300 | 4.39 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 150 | -0.32 | 3.87 | 478 | 48 |
| Wade LeBlanc L 2026 · 5.99 FIP | 35 | SP | 5.99 | 12.6% | 7.8% | 5.4% | .276 | 4.57 | 16.2% | 9.4% | 84 | -1.42 | 3.53 | 609 | 45 |
| Cole Hamels L 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 35 | SP | 3.75 | 23.2% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 893 | 45 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 62 | 16.3% | 9.8% | 1.45 | 5.16 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |