Martín Pérez

P Atlanta Braves

Age 36 LHP 6'0" / 210 lbs MLB peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	33	MIX2 levels	27	27	140	4.44	4.61	18.2%	8.0%	1.3	K 18.1% · BB 8.3% · FIP 4.62
2025	34	MIX3 levels	13	12	63	3.59	4.19	19.1%	9.7%	0.9	K 19.3% · BB 9.6% · FIP 4.11
2026	35	MLBATL	30	26	142	3.04	4.23	17.1%	10.2%	2.0
2027PROJ	36	MLBATL	11	11	64	4.51	4.80	16.4%	9.9%	0.4
2028PROJ	37	MLBATL	5	5	31	4.93	5.21	15.4%	10.6%	0.1
2029PROJ	38	MLBATL	3	3	19	5.19	5.37	16.2%	10.5%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs39

K%15

FB Velo10

Form2.70 ERA (proj 4.51) · K 14.0% (proj 16.4%) · BB 11.6% (proj 9.9%) ▼ last 60d · 27 IP through Oct 27

CompsTsuyoshi Wada (age 34) · Mauricio Lara (age 36) · Juan Antonio Pena (age 37)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105113vR 121

ERA4.51

FIP4.80

K%16.4%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%6.5%

Proj IP64

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1089.9

Whiff%

p2021.1%

p1517.1%

xwOBA vs

p390.325

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2012	21	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	12	6	38	177	25	14	3	50%	3.2	14.1%	7.9%	6.2%	1.6%	5.45	3.80	+0.7
2012	21	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	12	6	38	177	25	14	3	50%	3.2	14.1%	7.9%	6.2%	1.7%	5.45	3.92	+0.7
2013	22	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	20	20	124	529	84	37	15	100%	6.2	15.9%	7.0%	8.9%	2.7%	3.62	4.14	+1.9
2013	22	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	20	20	124	529	84	37	15	100%	6.2	15.9%	7.0%	8.9%	2.8%	3.62	4.21	+1.7
2014	23	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	8	8	51	207	35	18	3	100%	6.4	16.9%	8.7%	8.2%	1.4%	4.38	3.54	+1.2
2014	23	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	8	8	51	207	35	18	3	100%	6.4	16.9%	8.7%	8.2%	1.4%	4.38	3.55	+1.2
2015	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	20	104	448	73	26	6	100%	5.2	14.9%	5.9%	9.0%	1.1%	4.49	3.21	+2.8
2015	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	20	104	448	73	26	6	100%	5.2	16.3%	5.8%	10.5%	1.3%	4.49	3.20	+2.8
2016	25	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	33	33	199	855	103	76	18	100%	6.0	12.0%	8.9%	3.2%	2.0%	4.39	4.32	+2.5
2016	25	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	33	33	199	855	103	76	18	100%	6.0	12.0%	8.9%	3.2%	2.1%	4.39	4.39	+2.3
2017	26	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	32	32	185	811	115	60	23	100%	5.8	14.2%	7.4%	6.8%	2.7%	4.82	4.34	+2.3
2017	26	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	32	32	185	811	115	60	23	100%	5.8	14.2%	7.4%	6.8%	2.8%	4.82	4.45	+2.1
2018	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	25	18	103	462	71	38	17	72%	4.1	13.1%	8.8%	4.3%	3.9%	5.26	5.24	+0.2
2018	27	MIX RAW	4 levels	25	18	103	462	71	38	17	72%	4.1	15.4%	8.2%	7.1%	3.7%	5.26	4.98	+0.5
2019	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	32	29	165	737	135	66	23	91%	5.2	18.3%	9.0%	9.4%	3.1%	5.12	4.39	+1.9
2019	28	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	32	29	165	737	135	66	23	91%	5.2	18.3%	9.0%	9.4%	3.1%	5.12	4.47	+1.8
2020	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	12	12	62	262	46	28	8	100%	5.2	17.6%	10.7%	6.9%	3.1%	4.50	4.69	+0.5
2020	29	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	12	12	62	262	46	28	8	100%	5.2	17.6%	10.7%	6.9%	3.1%	4.50	4.65	+0.5
2021	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	22	115	513	98	34	19	59%	3.1	19.1%	6.7%	12.4%	3.8%	4.70	4.44	+1.3
2021	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	22	115	513	98	34	19	59%	3.1	19.1%	6.6%	12.5%	3.7%	4.70	4.43	+1.3
2022	31	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	32	32	196	821	169	69	11	100%	6.1	20.6%	8.4%	12.2%	1.2%	2.89	3.11	+5.6
2022	31	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	32	32	196	821	169	69	11	100%	6.1	20.6%	8.4%	12.2%	1.3%	2.89	3.16	+5.5
2023	32	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	35	20	142	608	93	48	21	57%	4.0	15.3%	7.9%	7.4%	3.2%	4.45	4.57	+1.4
2023	32	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	35	20	142	608	93	48	21	57%	4.0	15.3%	7.9%	7.4%	3.5%	4.45	4.73	+1.1
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	140	609	111	49	22	100%	5.2	18.1%	8.3%	9.8%	3.6%	4.44	4.62	+1.3
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	140	609	111	49	22	100%	5.2	18.1%	8.3%	9.8%	3.6%	4.44	4.62	+1.3
2024	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	140	609	111	49	22	100%	5.2	18.2%	8.0%	10.2%	3.6%	4.44	4.61	+1.3
2025	34	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	12	63	257	49	25	7	92%	4.8	19.3%	9.6%	9.6%	2.6%	3.59	4.11	+1.0
2025	34	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	12	63	257	49	25	7	92%	4.8	19.3%	9.6%	9.6%	2.6%	3.59	4.11	+1.0
2025	34	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	12	63	257	49	25	7	92%	4.8	19.1%	9.7%	9.3%	2.7%	3.59	4.19	+0.9
2026	35	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	30	26	142	596	102	61	14	87%	4.7	17.1%	10.2%	6.9%	2.3%	3.04	4.24	+1.9
2026	35	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	30	26	142	596	102	61	14	87%	4.7	17.1%	10.2%	6.9%	2.3%	3.04	4.24	+1.9
2026	35	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	30	26	142	596	102	61	14	87%	4.7	17.1%	10.2%	6.9%	2.3%	3.04	4.23	+2.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			355	305	1774	7666	1255	640	205	86%	5.0	16.4%	8.3%	8.0%	2.7%	4.30	4.27	+23.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	36	MLB	ATL	11	11	64	270	44	27	7	100%	5.8	16.4%	9.9%	6.5%	2.7%	4.51	4.80	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	37	MLB MLE	ATL	5	5	31	131	20	14	4	100%	6.2	15.4%	10.6%	4.8%	3.1%	4.93	5.21	+0.1
2029	38	MLB MLE	ATL	3	3	19	82	13	9	3	100%	6.5	16.2%	10.5%	5.8%	3.5%	5.19	5.37	+0.0
2028	37	MLB CTX	ATL	5	5	31	131	20	14	4	100%	6.2	15.4%	10.6%	4.8%	3.1%	4.93	5.21	+0.1
2029	38	MLB CTX	ATL	3	3	19	80	13	8	3	100%	6.3	16.2%	10.5%	5.8%	3.5%	5.19	5.37	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		363	313	1824	7879	1288	662	212	86%	5.0	16.4%	8.4%	7.9%	2.7%	4.32	4.26	+24.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		40	34	200	864	141	73	23	86%	5.0	16.4%	8.4%	7.9%	2.7%	4.32	4.26	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		368	317	1829	7892	1292	654	206	86%	5.0	16.4%	8.3%	8.1%	2.6%	4.26	4.20	+23.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	35	200	863	141	71	23	86%	5.0	16.4%	8.3%	8.1%	2.6%	4.26	4.20	+2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2018 AAARound Rock Express · 6 IPFIP 3.28 → 3.81 (+0.54)K% 25.0% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.880	22.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.050	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	4.17%	÷0.978	×1.100	4.69%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 3.28 → 3.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 6 IPFIP 3.28 → 3.70 (+0.43)K% 16.7% → 13.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.67%	—	×0.810	13.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×1.100	13.75%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.088	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 118).

Result: FIP 3.28 → 3.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAARound Rock Express · 20 IPFIP 3.00 → 3.13 (+0.13)K% 20.2% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.24%	—	×0.880	17.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.38%	—	×1.050	2.50%
HR / BF /BF	2.38%	÷1.184	×1.100	2.21%

Result: FIP 3.00 → 3.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 6 IPFIP 3.10 → 4.25 (+1.15)K% 32.0% → 25.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.00%	—	×0.810	25.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.00%	—	×1.100	4.40%
HR / BF /BF	4.00%	÷0.946	×1.200	5.08%

Result: FIP 3.10 → 4.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Martín Pérez (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	5.27	15.7%	5.2%	50	+0.47	—	—	—
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2015 · 3.66 FIP	34	SP	3.66	16.8%	7.1%	2.0%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	188	60
Mauricio Lara L 2015 · 3.62 FIP	36	SP	3.62	13.9%	6.9%	1.5%	.310	3.69	12.1%	5.1%	220	+0.07	3.62	444	57
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	57
Arturo Lopez L 2019 · 5.46 FIP	36	SP	5.46	12.2%	6.8%	4.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	4.34	445	54
Francisley Bueno L 2017 · 4.44 FIP	36	SP	4.44	11.7%	8.4%	2.3%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	2.43	188	52
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	50
Marlon Arias L 2019 · 4.83 FIP	34	SP	4.83	19.8%	11.2%	3.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	154	48
Jorge Castillo L 2017 · 4.97 FIP	35	SP	4.97	11.2%	6.7%	3.6%	.337	4.91	19.6%	11.5%	119	-0.06	4.50	408	44
Chris Michalak L 2006 · 5.71 FIP	35	SP-	5.71	6.2%	8.6%	3.7%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	186	39
Oscar Rivera L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	36	SP	5.80	9.8%	7.8%	4.6%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	237	38
Kenshin Kawakami R 2010 · 4.06 FIP	35	SP	4.06	15.1%	5.6%	2.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	244	30
Jarrett Grube R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	35	SP	4.41	15.8%	8.1%	3.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	30
Jose Contreras R 2008 · 4.08 FIP	36	SP	4.08	13.4%	6.7%	2.3%	.291	3.52	20.1%	12.1%	202	-0.56	2.43	1,279	28
Hiroki Kuroda R 2011 · 3.64 FIP	36	SP	3.64	19.2%	5.1%	2.8%	.282	3.50	18.2%	13.3%	620	-0.14	2.96	1,319	28
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	36	SP-	4.20	15.8%	5.6%	3.1%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	567	27
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	27
Yoanner Negrin R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	35	SP	3.87	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	485	27
Jonathan Castellanos R 2017 · 4.91 FIP	35	SP	4.91	8.4%	9.2%	2.5%	.314	5.24	11.0%	2.0%	67	+0.33	3.40	394	26
Chris Smith R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	36	SP-	5.08	15.6%	7.5%	4.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	477	26
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	453	26

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9.4	105	16.4%	8.6%	1.04	4.33
Trevor Cahill ('21)	7.5	116	17.8%	9.5%	1.01	4.26
Vicente Padilla ('12)	7.9	131	16.5%	8.1%	1.04	4.32
Scott Feldman ('17)	6.9	116	14.9%	7.4%	1.05	4.43
Ken Brett ('67-'81, 10 WAR*)	7.6	127	18.2%*	8.4%*	1.12*	4.56*
John Curtis ('70-'84, 6 WAR*)	8.2	117	16.9%*	9.3%*	1.20*	4.63*
Mike Morgan ('78-'02, 25 WAR*)	13.9	139	14.9%*	7.7%*	1.05*	4.37*