Rafael Marchán — OGILVIE

Rafael MarchánC Philadelphia Phillies

Age 27 S/R 5'9" / 170 lbs MLB HR +4% Svc 3.035 · Ctrl thru 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION89 act + 65 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 9182vR 60

AVG/OBP/SLG.220 / .292 / .356

PA65

HR2

K%18

BB%8

BABIP244

ISO136

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT55

Whiff%

905.5%

xwOBA

180.271

POWER40

Barrel%

163.9

Avg EV

1084.9

Bat Spd

1066.4

EYE55

Chase%

9018.3%

SPEED40

Sprint

2026.0

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 198 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

139

—

wRC+

115

◀◀L

wOBA

335

251

◀◀L

ISO

149

119

◀◀L

BABIP

278

208

◀◀L

11.9%

17.3%

◀◀L

BB%

8.5%

5.8%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2021

Service 3.035 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.4M
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$0.9M	-$0.9M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	17	ROK	DSL Phillies 2	—	192	177	49	5	1	0	10	20	0	6	0	277	316	316	632	40	302	10	5	279	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	17	ROK	DSL Phillies 2	—	192	171	57	7	1	0	16	14	0	6	0	333	390	386	776	53	352	7	8	344	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK	GCL Phillies	—	93	85	17	4	0	0	3	12	3	1	0	200	253	247	500	47	227	13	3	215	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK	GCL Phillies	—	93	84	20	5	0	0	4	8	3	1	0	238	297	298	594	60	256	9	4	269	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A	2 teams	—	351	323	67	15	0	0	21	55	5	2	5	207	266	254	520	46	248	16	6	234	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A	2 teams	—	351	314	82	20	0	0	30	39	5	2	5	261	335	325	660	64	296	11	9	303	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AAA	2 teams	—	321	298	55	7	1	1	18	65	4	1	0	185	241	225	465	40	232	20	6	213	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AAA	2 teams	—	321	289	60	8	1	1	27	55	4	1	0	208	284	253	537	45	252	17	8	252	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA	3 teams	—	366	337	65	20	0	4	17	44	10	1	0	193	253	288	541	95	210	12	5	246	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA	3 teams	—	366	317	83	21	0	4	37	39	10	1	0	262	357	366	723	104	286	11	10	330	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA	2 teams	—	340	295	71	14	4	3	28	40	11	4	2	241	329	346	675	105	264	12	8	294	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA	2 teams	—	340	283	88	23	5	5	40	31	11	4	2	311	416	481	897	170	328	9	12	393	159	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA	3 teams	—	212	187	43	6	0	5	18	42	4	1	0	230	311	342	653	112	268	20	8	295	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA	3 teams	—	212	180	45	6	0	6	25	37	4	1	0	250	354	383	737	133	281	17	12	332	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB	2 teams	—	162	144	30	5	0	3	14	23	2	0	1	208	287	306	593	97	227	14	9	260	57	-8	-0	+4	+3	+5	0.4
2025	26	MLB	2 teams	—	162	144	29	5	0	3	14	26	2	0	1	201	281	299	580	97	224	16	9	265	61	-7	-0	+4	+3	+5	0.4
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	27	MLB	PHI	—	89	85	9	0	0	2	2	14	2	0	0	106	146	176	323	71	101	16	2	148	-28	-13	+0	+2	+2	+3	-0.7
YTD	27	MLB	PHI	—	89	85	9	0	0	2	2	14	2	0	0	106	146	176	323	71	101	16	2	150	-27	-13	+0	+2	+2	+3	-0.7
ROS	27	MLB	PHI	100%	65	59	13	2	0	2	5	12	1	0	0	220	292	356	648	136	237	18	8	276	69	-2	+0	+1	+1	+2	0.1
ROS	27	MLB	PHI	100%	65	59	13	2	0	2	5	12	1	0	0	220	292	356	648	136	239	18	8	267	62	-3	+0	+1	+1	+2	0.1
FULL	27	MLB	PHI	—	154	144	22	2	0	4	7	26	3	0	0	153	208	250	458	97	158	17	5	198	10	-16	+0	+2	+3	+4	-0.6
TOT	27	MLB	PHI	—	154	144	22	2	0	4	7	26	3	0	0	153	208	250	458	97	158	17	5	202	13	-15	+0	+2	+3	+4	-0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	PHI	82%	305	275	58	10	1	7	22	57	5	2	1	211	281	331	612	120	238	19	7	276	70	-10	+0	+2	+5	+9	0.5
2027	28	MLB	PHI	82%	250	226	48	8	1	6	18	47	4	1	0	212	282	336	619	124	240	19	7	267	63	-10	+0	+1	+4	+7	0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	545	493	110	19	2	14	40	94	7	1	0	223	291	355	646	132	248	17	7	281	73	-17	+0	+7	+18	+15	2.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	588	131	23	2	17	48	112	8	1	0	223	290	355	646	133	247	17	7	281	73	-20	+0	+9	+22	+18	3.0
Career	—			—	2407	2180	468	88	7	25	156	370	45	18	9	215	281	296	577	81	245	15	6	258	56	-121	+0	+8	+43	+68	-0.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	589	127	24	2	7	42	100	12	5	2	216	281	299	580	83	246	15	6	258	56	-33	+0	+2	+12	+18	-0.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	17	ROK	DSL Phillies 2	—	192	171	57	7	1	0	16	14	0	6	0	333	390	386	776	53	352	7	8	344	122	+5	+1	—	—	+5	1.2
2017	18	ROK	GCL Phillies	—	93	84	20	5	0	0	4	8	3	1	0	238	297	298	594	60	256	9	4	269	64	-4	+0	—	—	+3	-0.1
2019	20	A+	Clearwater Threshers	—	86	78	18	4	0	0	6	8	1	1	2	231	294	282	576	51	254	9	7	264	60	-4	-1	—	—	+2	-0.2
2019	20	A	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	265	236	64	16	0	0	24	31	4	1	3	271	348	339	687	68	311	12	9	316	100	-0	-1	—	—	+8	0.7
2021	22	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	56	52	12	1	1	1	4	10	0	0	0	231	286	346	632	115	268	18	7	284	76	-2	+0	-0	+6	+2	0.6
2021	22	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	265	237	48	7	0	0	23	45	4	1	0	203	284	232	516	30	249	17	9	246	46	-16	+0	—	—	+8	-0.9
2022	23	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	263	232	54	17	0	4	20	24	9	1	0	233	318	358	676	125	243	9	8	306	93	-2	+0	—	—	+7	0.6
2022	23	A+	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	—	15	13	3	2	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	231	333	385	718	154	273	13	13	325	107	+0	+0	—	—	+0	0.1
2022	23	INTL	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	88	72	26	2	0	0	15	13	1	0	0	361	477	389	866	28	441	15	17	403	167	+7	+0	—	—	+2	0.9
2023	24	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	207	175	52	13	3	2	24	20	5	1	2	297	397	440	837	143	321	10	12	371	142	+10	-1	—	—	+6	1.5
2023	24	INTL	Tigres de Aragua	—	133	108	36	10	2	3	16	11	6	3	0	333	446	546	992	213	340	8	12	428	185	+13	+1	—	—	+4	1.8
2024	25	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	56	51	15	4	0	3	3	8	1	0	0	294	345	549	894	255	300	14	5	383	151	+3	+0	+1	+4	+2	1.0
2024	25	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	141	118	27	2	0	2	19	28	2	0	0	229	345	297	642	68	278	20	13	300	88	-2	+0	—	—	+4	0.2
2024	25	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	15	11	3	0	0	1	3	1	1	1	0	273	467	545	1.012	273	222	7	20	448	201	+2	+0	—	—	+0	0.2
2025	26	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	118	105	22	4	0	2	10	17	1	0	0	210	284	305	589	95	230	14	8	267	62	-5	+0	+4	+3	+3	0.6
2025	26	INTL	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	44	39	7	1	0	1	4	9	1	0	1	179	273	282	555	103	207	20	9	259	57	-2	-0	—	—	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	230	208	49	9	1	6	17	35	2	0	0	236	300	375	675	139	256	15	7	299	87	-3	+0	+5	+12	+7	2.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Juan Castrolast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,352 PA	11	2,352	34	4	237	273	341	+10	+21	1.0	2.7
	/162	664	10	1	237	273	341	+3.0	+5.8	0.3	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	723	17	2	211	274	333	+13	+9	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	2	211	274	333	+11.9	+8.4	0.8	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rafael Marchán (OGILVIE)	27	55	40	40	55	153/208/250	97	158	4	0	17%	5%	13	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Luis Antonio Rodriguez 2007 · MLB	27	52→53	41→45	43→45	55	248/316/353	105	273	8	5	12%	9%	90	+1.0	243/308/330	87	260	6	5	9%	8%	81	+0.4	249/316/387	138	262	15	5	12%	8%	97	+0.9
✕Kevin Plawecki 2018 · MLB	27	49→56	43→45	45→30	48	238/300/350	112	278	11	3	19%	7%	83	+0.6	235/310/371	136	280	13	4	20%	8%	93	+1.3	229/311/360	131	271	13	0	20%	8%	88	+0.3
✕Dioner Navarro 2011 · MLB	27	48→58	42→50	43→45	51	230/291/330	100	255	9	6	14%	7%	74	-0.1	236/298/361	125	261	14	5	15%	8%	85	+0.7	273/323/405	132	297	17	2	14%	6%	104	+1.2
✕Dean Anna 2015 · MLB	28	47→55	43→45	40→45	51	229/302/347	118	263	10	5	17%	8%	83	+0.6	224/294/305	81	266	5	6	17%	8%	69	-0.4	240/307/309	69	283	3	7	15%	7%	72	-0.2
✕Steve Clevenger 2013 · MLB	27	52→59	43→45	40→45	48	250/296/367	117	284	9	3	16%	6%	85	+0.7	257/308/363	106	299	8	3	16%	7%	89	+0.9	274/322/367	93	317	7	1	15%	6%	93	+0.6
✕Omar Mendoza 2010 · AAA	27	48→54	42→45	44→45	49	233/289/337	104	272	9	8	18%	7%	74	-0.1	231/289/335	104	274	10	8	19%	8%	74	-0.1	230/289/329	99	274	11	8	20%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Ehire Adrianza 2017 · MLB	27	48→49	46→50	43→50	47	241/300/370	129	278	14	10	19%	6%	88	+0.9	246/305/370	124	293	11	11	19%	7%	90	+1.0	241/326/373	132	289	11	1	19%	10%	97	+0.5
✕Mark Johnson 2003 · MLB	27	45	43→40	45→40	56	221/305/328	106	252	11	5	17%	10%	80	+0.4	220/304/328	108	253	10	5	17%	10%	80	+0.4	237/320/314	77	273	6	1	15%	10%	81	+0.1
✕Griff Erickson 2015 · AAA	27	41→50	47→45	39→40	46	211/278/346	135	268	15	4	27%	8%	73	-0.1	218/278/338	120	276	12	7	25%	7%	71	-0.3	202/264/297	95	251	9	2	23%	6%	52	-0.6
✕Francisco Cordoba 2011 · AAA	27	46→53	45	40	50	227/300/351	124	274	12	7	22%	9%	83	+0.6	224/272/341	117	288	14	5	26%	6%	69	-0.4	245/293/369	124	299	16	1	23%	5%	82	+0.3
●Johnny Estrada 2003 · MLB	27	46→56	47→45	47→30	50	227/282/363	136	234	15	5	12%	6%	79	+0.3	270/330/395	125	295	11	4	12%	7%	107	+2.2	290/339/418	128	313	11	0	11%	5%	107	+1.7
✕Phillip Evans 2020 · MLB	27	45→53	46→45	40	48	224/289/354	130	259	14	4	20%	7%	80	+0.4	225/294/340	115	268	12	4	20%	8%	79	+0.3	221/292/311	90	265	9	2	19%	8%	68	-0.4
✕Jonah Heim 2021 · MLB	26	47→50	42→55	44→40	47	229/283/333	104	274	10	4	20%	7%	71	-0.3	224/282/379	155	253	19	5	20%	7%	83	+0.6	227/289/395	168	253	21	3	19%	8%	88	+0.6
✕Josh Thole 2014 · MLB	27	50→60	43→40	40→45	51	245/307/351	106	277	11	2	16%	8%	86	+0.8	226/289/307	81	268	7	3	17%	8%	66	-0.6	206/275/243	36	251	1	0	17%	8%	42	-0.6
✕Jarrett Hoffpauir 2010 · MLB	27	49→58	45	43→45	52	240/296/364	124	252	12	5	11%	7%	85	+0.7	232/290/350	118	251	11	7	12%	7%	79	+0.3	231/291/338	107	253	9	6	13%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Bobby Hill 2005 · MLB	27	53	41→40	42→45	51	255/337/355	101	296	8	6	16%	8%	100	+1.7	243/325/329	86	308	6	4	21%	8%	89	+0.9	239/325/309	70	315	3	2	22%	9%	80	+0.2
✕Héctor Sánchez 2016 · MLB	26	44→50	45→50	43→30	42	220/266/339	119	268	13	3	24%	5%	66	-0.6	226/275/393	167	276	22	4	26%	6%	85	+0.7	219/268/415	196	259	28	0	28%	6%	84	+0.2
✕Conor Gillaspie 2014 · MLB	27	48→58	48→50	41→40	49	242/297/383	141	270	17	3	18%	7%	90	+1.0	256/306/396	140	293	12	3	17%	7%	97	+1.5	265/313/405	140	302	11	1	16%	6%	95	+0.8
✕Wiki Gonzalez 2001 · MLB	27	49	44→45	42→30	57	236/312/359	123	248	11	5	11%	9%	91	+1.1	241/320/374	133	264	14	6	14%	9%	98	+1.6	258/329/385	127	277	13	2	12%	8%	98	+0.5
✕Mike Rabelo 2007 · AAA	27	50	43→45	43→40	43	241/295/356	114	294	10	4	21%	5%	82	+0.5	225/277/330	105	285	9	5	24%	5%	68	-0.5	217/263/309	91	278	8	0	24%	4%	55	-0.4