Rafael Marchán

C Philadelphia Phillies

Age 28 S/R 5'9" / 170 lbs MLB HR +14% Svc 4.035 · Ctrl thru 2028

Overview

MLB40-MANArb-2FA 2029

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	25	AAA/APHI	156	.233/.357/.318	3	1	66	—	.221/.312/.303
2024	25	MLBPHI	56	.294/.345/.549	3	0	141	0.9
2025	26	INTLTiburones de …	44	.179/.273/.282	1	0	62	—
2025	26	MLBPHI	118	.210/.284/.305	2	0	65	0.5
2026	27	AAA/INTL2 orgs	77	.209/.303/.239	0	0	48	—	.175/.233/.175
2026	27	MLBPHI	95	.099/.137/.165	2	0	-21	-0.7
2027PROJ	28	MLBPHI	124	.217/.285/.340	3	1	74	0.3
2028PROJ82% MLB	29	MLBPHI	147	.215/.282/.333	3	1	72	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.8 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service4.035First FA2029

2027Arb-2$0.9M2028Arb-3$0.9M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Speed23

Barrel%16

xwOBA14

Avg EV10

Bat Spd10

CompsMichael Papierski (age 28) · Jason Jaramillo (age 28) · Rob Johnson (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 7474vR 74

AVG/OBP/SLG.217 / .285 / .340

PA124

HR3

K%19

BB%7

BABIP246

ISO116

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT55

xAVG

170.224

POWER40

Barrel%

163.8

Avg EV

1084.8

Bat Spd

1066.4

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED40

Sprint

2326.2

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 198 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

139

—

wRC+

113

◀◀L

wOBA

335

251

◀◀L

ISO

149

119

◀◀L

BABIP

278

208

◀◀L

11.9%

17.3%

◀◀L

BB%

8.5%

5.8%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2021

Service 4.035 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.3M
2028	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.9M		$2M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2016	17	ROK	DSL Phillies 2	—	192	171	57	7	1	0	16	14	0	6	0	333	390	386	776	53	352	7	8	344	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK	GCL Phillies	—	93	84	20	5	0	0	4	8	3	1	0	238	297	298	594	60	256	9	4	269	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A+	Clearwater Threshers	—	86	78	18	4	0	0	6	8	1	1	2	231	294	282	576	51	254	9	7	264	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	265	236	64	16	0	0	24	31	4	1	3	271	348	339	687	68	311	12	9	316	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	56	52	12	1	1	1	4	10	0	0	0	231	286	346	632	115	268	18	7	284	77	-2	+0	-0	+6	+1	0.5
2021	22	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	265	237	48	7	0	0	23	45	4	1	0	203	284	232	516	30	249	17	9	246	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	263	232	54	17	0	4	20	24	9	1	0	233	318	358	676	125	243	9	8	306	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	—	15	13	3	2	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	231	333	385	718	154	273	13	13	325	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	INTL	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	88	72	26	2	0	0	15	13	1	0	0	361	477	389	866	28	441	15	17	403	159	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	207	175	52	13	3	2	24	20	5	1	2	297	397	440	837	143	321	10	12	371	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	INTL	Tigres de Aragua	—	133	108	36	10	2	3	16	11	6	3	0	333	446	546	992	213	340	8	12	428	176	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	56	51	15	4	0	3	3	8	1	0	0	294	345	549	894	255	300	14	5	383	141	+3	+0	+1	+4	+1	0.9
2024	25	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	141	118	27	2	0	2	19	28	2	0	0	229	345	297	642	68	278	20	13	300	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	15	11	3	0	0	1	3	1	1	1	0	273	467	545	1.012	273	222	7	20	448	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	118	105	22	4	0	2	10	17	1	0	0	210	284	305	589	95	230	14	8	267	65	-5	+0	+4	+3	+3	0.5
2025	26	INTL	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	44	39	7	1	0	1	4	9	1	0	1	179	273	282	555	103	207	20	9	259	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	95	91	9	0	0	2	2	15	2	0	0	99	137	165	302	66	95	16	2	141	-21	-14	+0	+2	+3	+2	-0.7
2026	27	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	44	38	7	0	0	0	5	9	0	0	0	184	279	184	463		233	20	11	223	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	INTL	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	33	29	7	2	0	0	2	5	2	0	1	241	333	310	644	69	292	15	6	302	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	325	299	58	9	1	8	19	50	4	0	0	194	252	311	563	117	207	15	6	253	57	-16	+0	+7	+15	+7	1.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2016	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies 2	—	192	175	42	5	1	0	12	17	0	6	0	240	289	280	569	40	247	9	6	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies	—	93	85	17	4	0	0	3	12	3	1	0	200	253	247	500	47	219	13	3	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A+ MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	86	79	15	3	0	0	5	12	1	1	2	190	247	228	475	38	220	14	6	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	265	244	55	13	0	0	16	42	4	1	3	225	284	279	563	53	269	16	6	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	56	52	12	1	1	1	4	10	0	0	0	231	286	346	632	115	268	18	7	281	77	-2	+0	-0	+6	+1	0.5
2021	22	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	265	244	45	6	0	0	16	54	4	1	0	184	246	209	455	25	235	20	6	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	263	238	49	14	0	3	14	30	9	1	0	206	276	303	578	97	219	11	5	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	—	15	14	3	2	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	214	267	357	624	143	219	20	7	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	207	181	46	10	3	1	18	24	5	1	2	254	338	359	697	105	280	12	9	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	56	51	15	4	0	3	3	8	1	0	0	294	345	549	894	255	300	14	5	377	141	+3	+0	+1	+4	+1	0.9
2024	25	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	141	124	27	2	0	2	13	33	2	0	0	218	302	282	584	65	263	23	9	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	15	12	3	0	0	1	2	1	1	1	0	250	400	500	900	250	184	7	13	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	118	105	22	4	0	2	10	17	1	0	0	210	284	305	589	95	230	14	8	265	65	-5	+0	+4	+3	+3	0.5
2026	27	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	95	91	9	0	0	2	2	15	2	0	0	99	137	165	302	66	95	16	2	137	-21	-14	+0	+2	+3	+2	-0.7
2026	27	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	44	40	7	0	0	0	3	11	0	0	0	175	233	175	408		218	25	7	193	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies 2	—	192	175	42	5	1	0	12	17	0	6	0	240	289	280	569	40	258	9	6	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	17	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies 2	—	192	171	57	7	1	0	16	14	0	6	0	333	390	386	776	53	352	7	8	344	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies	—	93	85	17	4	0	0	3	12	3	1	0	200	253	247	500	47	227	13	3	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	GCL Phillies	—	93	84	20	5	0	0	4	8	3	1	0	238	297	298	594	60	256	9	4	269	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	351	323	71	16	0	0	21	54	5	2	5	220	278	269	547	50	262	15	6	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	351	314	82	20	0	0	30	39	5	2	5	261	335	325	660	64	296	11	9	303	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	321	296	57	7	1	1	20	64	4	1	0	193	253	233	486	41	241	20	6	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	321	289	60	8	1	1	27	55	4	1	0	208	284	253	537	45	252	17	8	252	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	366	334	68	21	0	4	20	43	10	1	0	204	269	302	572	99	221	12	5	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	366	317	83	21	0	4	37	39	10	1	0	262	357	366	723	104	286	11	10	330	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	340	294	77	17	5	2	29	39	11	4	2	262	350	374	724	112	290	11	9	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	340	283	88	23	5	5	40	31	11	4	2	311	416	481	897	170	328	9	12	393	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	212	187	44	6	0	5	18	42	4	1	0	235	316	348	663	112	275	20	8	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	212	180	45	6	0	6	25	37	4	1	0	250	354	383	737	133	281	17	12	332	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	162	144	31	6	0	3	14	23	2	0	1	215	294	319	613	104	235	14	9	265	65	-7	-0	+4	+3	+4	0.4
2025	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	162	144	29	5	0	3	14	26	2	0	1	201	281	299	580	97	224	16	9	265	65	-7	-0	+4	+3	+4	0.4
2026	27	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	172	160	19	0	0	2	7	32	4	0	1	119	175	156	332	38	134	19	4	155	-9	-22	-0	+2	+3	+4	-1.4
2026	27	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	172	158	23	2	0	2	9	29	4	0	1	146	211	196	407	51	164	17	5	193	-9	-22	-0	+2	+3	+4	-1.4
2016	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies 2	—	192	178	42	5	1	0	12	17	0	6	0	236	289	275	564	39	247	9	6	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies	—	93	87	17	4	0	0	3	12	3	1	0	195	253	241	494	46	219	13	3	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	351	322	71	16	0	0	21	54	5	2	5	220	278	270	548	50	257	15	6	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	321	294	57	7	1	1	20	64	4	1	0	194	253	235	488	41	241	20	6	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	366	333	68	21	0	4	20	43	10	1	0	204	269	303	573	99	219	12	5	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	340	297	77	17	5	2	29	39	11	4	2	259	350	370	721	111	280	11	9	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	212	188	44	6	0	5	18	42	4	1	0	234	316	346	662	112	267	20	8	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	162	145	31	6	0	3	14	23	2	0	1	214	294	317	611	103	230	14	9	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	172	159	19	0	0	2	7	32	4	0	1	119	175	157	333	38	134	19	4	155	-9	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	212	188	44	6	0	5	18	42	4	1	0	234	316	346	662	112	267	20	8	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	162	145	31	6	0	3	14	23	2	0	1	214	294	317	611	103	230	14	9	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	172	159	19	0	0	2	7	32	4	0	1	119	175	157	333	38	134	19	4	155	-9	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	28	MLB MLE	PHI	100%	200	181	39	7	1	4	15	37	2	1	0	216	283	333	616	118	245	18	8	278	74	-6	+0	+2	+4	+4	0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	28	MLB CTX	PHI	100%	124	112	24	4	0	3	9	23	2	1	0	217	285	340	624	122	246	19	7	281	74	-4	+0	+1	+2	+3	0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	PHI	82%	179	162	35	6	1	4	13	34	2	1	0	213	280	327	607	114	244	19	7	274	72	-6	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	PHI	82%	147	133	28	5	0	3	11	28	2	1	0	215	282	333	615	118	245	19	7	277	72	-5	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	472	432	86	14	1	11	30	78	6	1	0	199	261	312	573	113	217	17	6	261	59	-21	+0	+7	+18	+10	1.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	595	118	19	1	15	41	107	8	1	0	198	259	309	569	111	216	16	6	261	59	-29	+0	+10	+25	+14	2.0
Career	—	MLE		—	2512	2272	485	92	8	24	166	383	47	18	9	213	281	293	574	79	244	15	7	256	59	-26	+0	+9	+21	+14	1.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	588	125	24	2	6	43	99	12	5	2	213	280	291	571	78	243	15	7	256	59	-27	+0	+9	+22	+14	1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 44 PAwOBA .223 → .193 (−31)K% 20.5% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.45%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	24.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.36%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.003	7.86%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.00%
Singles /BIP	24.14%	÷1.000	×0.930	—	×1.003	22.52%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×1.003	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	—	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.003	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .223 → .193; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .233 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 141 PAwOBA .297 → .258 (−39)K% 19.9% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.86%	÷1.022	×1.200	—	—	23.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.48%	÷1.021	×0.690	—	×1.033	9.40%
HBP% /PA	1.42%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	1.38%
Singles /BIP	25.56%	÷0.985	×0.930	×0.982	×1.033	24.47%
Doubles /BIP	2.22%	÷0.960	×0.830	×0.982	×1.033	1.95%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.982	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.22%	÷0.989	×0.700	—	×1.033	1.62%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 97, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 104, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.

Result: wOBA .297 → .258; ISO .068 → .054; BABIP .278 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AClearwater Threshers · 15 PAwOBA .437 → .340 (−97)K% 6.7% → 9.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	6.67%	÷0.982	×1.360	—	—	9.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.00%	÷0.973	×0.690	—	×0.970	13.76%
HBP% /PA	6.67%	—	×0.780	—	×0.970	5.04%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷1.042	×0.920	—	×0.970	17.12%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.938	×0.830	—	×0.970	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.132	×0.910	—	×0.970	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	10.00%	÷1.115	×0.800	—	×0.970	6.96%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 108, 2B 88, 3B 126, K 96, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.0 → −3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .437 → .340; ISO .273 → .205; BABIP .222 → .184. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 207 PAwOBA .368 → .314 (−53)K% 9.7% → 11.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.66%	÷0.996	×1.200	—	—	11.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.59%	÷0.982	×0.690	—	×1.048	8.53%
HBP% /PA	2.42%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	2.38%
Singles /BIP	21.94%	÷1.016	×0.930	×0.962	×1.048	20.23%
Doubles /BIP	8.39%	÷1.117	×0.830	×0.962	×1.048	6.28%
Triples /BIP	1.94%	÷1.105	×0.970	×0.962	×1.048	1.71%
Home runs /BIP	1.29%	÷1.028	×0.700	—	×1.048	0.92%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 103, 2B 123, 3B 121, K 99, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.

Result: wOBA .368 → .314; ISO .143 → .114; BABIP .321 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 263 PAwOBA .301 → .258 (−43)K% 9.1% → 11.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.13%	÷0.970	×1.200	—	—	11.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.60%	÷1.067	×0.690	—	×1.050	5.16%
HBP% /PA	3.42%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	3.38%
Singles /BIP	15.87%	÷1.007	×0.930	×0.977	×1.050	15.03%
Doubles /BIP	8.17%	÷1.018	×0.830	×0.977	×1.050	6.83%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.977	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.92%	÷1.039	×0.700	—	×1.050	1.36%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 101, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 94, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.

Result: wOBA .301 → .258; ISO .125 → .099; BABIP .243 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 15 PAwOBA .317 → .237 (−80)K% 13.3% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.33%	÷1.022	×1.310	—	—	17.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.33%	÷1.057	×0.600	—	×0.998	7.55%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.770	—	×0.998	0.00%
Singles /BIP	9.09%	÷1.044	×0.870	—	×0.998	7.56%
Doubles /BIP	18.18%	÷0.987	×0.780	—	×0.998	14.34%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.966	×0.850	—	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.881	×0.880	—	×0.998	0.00%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 109, 2B 97, 3B 93, K 104, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .317 → .237; ISO .154 → .125; BABIP .273 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 265 PAwOBA .241 → .211 (−30)K% 17.0% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.98%	÷0.992	×1.200	—	—	20.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.68%	÷1.061	×0.690	—	×1.050	5.92%
HBP% /PA	1.51%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	1.49%
Singles /BIP	21.35%	÷1.016	×0.930	×0.992	×1.050	20.34%
Doubles /BIP	3.65%	÷0.952	×0.830	×0.992	×1.050	3.31%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.992	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.957	×0.700	—	×1.050	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 103, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 98, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.

Result: wOBA .241 → .211; ISO .030 → .027; BABIP .249 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ALakewood BlueClaws · 265 PAwOBA .308 → .253 (−55)K% 11.7% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.70%	÷0.987	×1.340	—	—	15.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.68%	÷0.975	×0.660	—	×1.030	6.05%
HBP% /PA	1.51%	—	×0.770	—	×1.030	1.20%
Singles /BIP	23.41%	÷1.016	×0.920	×0.950	×1.030	20.75%
Doubles /BIP	7.80%	÷0.991	×0.820	×0.950	×1.030	6.32%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.038	×0.940	×0.950	×1.030	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.809	×0.820	—	×1.030	0.00%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 62, 1B 103, 2B 98, 3B 108, K 97, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .308 → .253; ISO .068 → .055; BABIP .311 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Chad Moeller'00-'10 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	29	2	218*	277*	341*	+27	-0	-0.2	1.0
/162	664	13	1	+11.6	-0.1	-0.1	pk7: 2
#4Jeff Torborg'64-'73 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,525 PA	2.3	1,525	8	3	214*	271*	292*	+27	+0	0.2	0.7
/162	664	3	1	+11.8	+0.0	0.1	pk7: 1
#5Joel Skinner'83-'91 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,551 PA	2.3	1,551	17	3	227*	270*	327*	+27	-0	-0.6	0.2
/162	664	7	1	+11.7	-0.1	-0.3	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	0.9	596	14	1	204	263	321	+11	+9	0.2	0.2
/162	664	16	2	+11.9	+10.2	0.2	pk7: 0
#6John Boccabella'63-'74 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,595 PA	2.4	1,595	26	3	217*	267*	343*	+8	+6	-1.3	-0.1
/162	664	11	1	+3.5	+2.7	-0.5	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rafael Marchán (OGILVIE)	28	55	40	40	55	214/281/330	117	245	3	1	19%	7%	74	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Michael Papierski 2024 · MLB	28	43→45	43→40	41→40	50	213/292/317	105	271	11	3	25%	9%	75	-0.5	217/295/325	108	281	10	6	25%	9%	78	-0.3	198/286/286	88	257	7	2	24%	10%	65	-0.7
✕Jason Jaramillo 2011 · MLB	28	46→54	41→45	46→40	47	224/276/318	94	261	9	4	18%	6%	68	-1.0	214/270/297	83	267	6	5	21%	6%	61	-1.5	202/258/270	68	258	4	3	22%	6%	48	-1.1
✕Rob Johnson 2010 · MLB	28	49→53	42→45	41→50	48	235/290/343	108	280	8	6	19%	7%	79	-0.2	211/279/317	106	265	8	7	22%	8%	70	-0.9	194/261/287	93	242	8	5	22%	7%	56	-0.7
✕Tucker Barnhart 2019 · MLB	28	51→53	44→45	40	53	248/316/371	123	288	11	3	18%	9%	95	+1.0	236/311/372	136	288	15	3	22%	9%	95	+0.9	229/307/361	132	288	15	1	24%	9%	90	+0.3
✕Austin Wynns 2019 · MLB	28	47→51	44→45	47→40	45	235/286/345	109	285	13	3	22%	6%	78	-0.3	223/277/322	99	272	12	4	22%	6%	70	-0.8	233/301/333	100	289	11	3	22%	7%	80	-0.0
✕Steve Holm 2009 · MLB	29	47	46→50	43→40	50	234/308/364	130	275	13	5	20%	8%	92	+0.7	209/272/314	105	258	9	4	22%	7%	66	-1.1	184/245/274	89	232	7	1	23%	6%	47	-1.0
✕Juan Centeno 2018 · MLB	28	52	40→45	43→40	44	248/288/337	90	294	7	4	19%	5%	76	-0.4	223/273/310	87	267	8	5	19%	5%	65	-1.2	224/271/328	105	263	10	2	19%	5%	66	-0.6
✕Bryan Holaday 2017 · MLB	29	46	44→45	42→40	42	226/274/343	117	278	11	5	23%	5%	74	-0.6	226/277/351	125	260	13	3	18%	5%	77	-0.3	214/275/334	120	247	13	2	19%	6%	74	-0.2
✕Danny Mendick 2022 · MLB	28	46→47	43→45	43→50	47	229/290/338	109	280	12	8	22%	7%	78	-0.3	232/292/351	119	285	13	12	22%	7%	82	+0.0	224/281/347	123	270	13	15	22%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Sandy León 2017 · MLB	28	50→56	43→45	42→30	46	242/299/354	113	303	11	3	24%	7%	85	+0.2	215/273/332	117	271	13	3	25%	7%	71	-0.8	180/259/256	76	243	8	0	28%	9%	48	-0.7
✕Austin Romine 2017 · MLB	28	47→54	44→50	45	43	232/268/352	120	268	12	4	19%	4%	73	-0.6	237/284/364	127	289	14	4	22%	6%	82	-0.0	253/292/395	142	318	18	2	26%	5%	93	+0.3
✕Cord Phelps 2015 · MLB	28	48→58	44→50	43→45	50	236/300/358	122	277	11	6	19%	8%	86	+0.3	218/279/302	84	270	7	8	21%	8%	65	-1.2	202/262/251	49	253	4	6	21%	8%	46	-2.0
✕Andrew Knizner 2023 · MLB	28	44	41→50	41→40	51	214/298/310	96	263	9	3	21%	9%	76	-0.4	227/293/352	125	276	14	5	23%	7%	83	+0.1	229/296/347	118	278	13	3	22%	6%	83	+0.0
✕Phillip Evans 2021 · MLB	28	47→57	48→45	39→40	50	236/307/379	143	269	16	5	19%	8%	95	+0.9	224/293/323	99	268	10	4	19%	8%	76	-0.4	225/295/311	86	267	8	2	18%	8%	73	-0.5
✕Pedro Severino 2020 · MLB	27	44→49	47→50	46→45	47	224/284/357	133	263	16	5	22%	7%	81	-0.1	242/305/379	137	302	16	5	24%	8%	93	+0.8	247/308/373	127	316	14	3	25%	8%	93	+0.3
✕Kevin Plawecki 2019 · MLB	28	48→58	47→45	43→30	49	239/313/380	142	280	15	3	20%	8%	97	+1.1	247/316/379	132	291	13	5	19%	7%	98	+1.2	238/303/331	93	278	8	0	17%	7%	82	+0.0
✕Cristhian Adames 2019 · MLB	28	46→56	41→45	44→50	46	224/272/326	102	267	9	7	20%	6%	68	-1.0	229/286/364	135	282	14	8	23%	7%	83	+0.1	219/288/386	166	271	17	4	25%	9%	86	+0.1
✕Omir Santos 2010 · MLB	29	49→46	41→45	42→30	44	239/283/336	98	279	9	3	18%	5%	75	-0.5	219/252/312	93	262	9	4	20%	4%	57	-1.8	217/235/289	72	276	5	0	23%	2%	44	-1.0
✕Dan Butler 2015 · MLB	28	43→39	44→45	44→40	44	213/272/330	117	266	11	3	24%	6%	70	-0.8	216/279/311	95	281	7	3	24%	7%	68	-1.0	206/274/297	91	259	8	0	22%	7%	61	-0.6
✕Russ Adams 2008 · MLB	27	49→53	43→45	45	51	236/293/350	114	262	10	7	14%	7%	82	-0.0	225/277/349	124	262	13	8	19%	6%	76	-0.4	218/270/346	128	254	14	7	20%	6%	72	-0.5

Rafael Marchán

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps