Rafael Marchán — OGILVIE

Rafael MarchánC Philadelphia Phillies

Age 27 S/R 5'9" / 170 lbs MLB HR +11%H +4% Svc 3.035 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 1.2 · 2027

wRC+†vL 7858vR 49

AVG/OBP/SLG.234 / .309 / .361

PA200

HR4

K%17

BB%8

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

55→55

PWR

40→40

SPD

40→40

EYE

50↗55

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.7peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2021

Service 3.035 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$0.9M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2027	Arb-2	$4M	+1.2	$10M	+$6M
2028	Arb-3	$6M	+1.2	$10M	+$4M
Totals		$10M		$22M	+$12M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	17	ROK	DSL Phillies 2	192	177	49	5	1	0	10	20	0	6	0	.277	.316	.316	.632	.040	.302	10	5	.279	72	-6	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.4
2017	18	ROK	GCL Phillies	93	85	17	4	0	0	3	12	3	1	0	.200	.253	.247	.500	.047	.227	13	3	.215	23	-8	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.4
2019	20	A	2 teams	351	325	66	15	0	0	19	53	5	2	5	.203	.258	.249	.507	.046	.241	15	5	.228	33	-27	-2	+0	+6	+10	-1.2
2021	22	AAA	2 teams	321	297	55	7	1	1	19	65	4	1	0	.185	.244	.226	.469	.040	.233	20	6	.214	22	-28	+0	-0	+6	+9	-1.4
2022	23	AAA	3 teams	366	335	65	20	0	4	19	42	10	1	0	.194	.258	.290	.548	.096	.210	11	5	.251	50	-20	+0	+0	+7	+10	-0.3
2023	24	AAA	2 teams	340	295	74	16	4	3	28	39	11	4	2	.251	.338	.363	.701	.112	.274	11	8	.307	93	-3	+0	+0	+6	+10	1.3
2024	25	AAA	3 teams	212	187	43	6	0	5	18	42	4	1	0	.230	.311	.342	.653	.112	.268	20	8	.292	82	-4	+0	+1	+4	+6	0.7
2025	26	MLB	2 teams	162	144	29	6	0	2	14	23	2	0	1	.201	.281	.285	.566	.083	.225	14	9	.255	54	-9	-0	+4	+3	+5	0.3
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	27	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	36	35	3	0	0	1	0	9	1	0	0	.086	.111	.171	.283	.086	.080	25	0	.127	-44	-6	+0	+2	+1	+1	-0.3
ROS	27	MLB	PHI	164	147	34	6	1	4	13	28	3	1	0	.231	.307	.367	.674	.136	.251	17	8	.290	80	-4	+0	+3	+3	+5	0.7
TOT	27	MLB	PHI	200	182	37	6	1	5	13	37	4	1	0	.203	.271	.330	.601	.126	.227	18	6	.261	58	-10	+0	+5	+4	+6	0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	28	MLB	PHI	305	273	61	11	1	7	24	47	5	1	0	.223	.298	.348	.646	.125	.243	15	8	.289	80	-7	+0	+5	+5	+9	1.3
2028	29	MLB	PHI	331	297	65	12	1	7	26	52	5	1	0	.219	.293	.337	.629	.118	.243	16	8	.287	78	-8	+0	+5	+6	+9	1.3
2029	30	MLB	PHI	347	312	67	12	1	7	27	56	5	0	0	.215	.288	.327	.615	.112	.242	16	8	.284	76	-10	+0	+5	+6	+10	1.1
2030	31	MLB	PHI	322	289	61	11	1	6	25	53	5	0	0	.211	.285	.318	.604	.107	.240	16	8	.281	73	-10	+0	+3	+6	+9	0.9
2031	32	MLB	PHI	294	265	56	10	1	6	23	50	4	0	0	.211	.284	.325	.609	.113	.239	17	8	.275	69	-10	+0	+2	+5	+8	0.6
2032	33	MLB	PHI	258	232	48	8	1	5	20	46	4	0	0	.207	.281	.315	.596	.108	.237	18	8	.269	64	-10	+0	+1	+5	+7	0.2
2033	34	MLB	PHI	211	190	39	7	1	3	16	39	3	0	0	.205	.278	.300	.578	.095	.235	18	8	.263	59	-10	+0	-1	+4	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			4269	3850	829	156	14	60	304	667	73	19	8	.215	.285	.310	.595	.095	.244	16	7	.269	64	-174	+1	+29	+76	+121	5.4
/ 162G	—			650	586	126	24	2	9	46	102	11	3	1	.215	.284	.309	.593	.094	.244	16	7	.269	64	-26	+0	+4	+12	+18	0.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	17	ROK	DSL Phillies 2	192	171	57	7	1	0	16	14	0	6	0	.333	.390	.386	.776	.053	.352	7	8	.344	122	+5	+1	—	—	+5	1.2
2017	18	ROK	GCL Phillies	93	84	20	5	0	0	4	8	3	1	0	.238	.297	.298	.594	.060	.256	9	4	.269	64	-4	+0	—	—	+3	-0.1
2019	20	A+	Clearwater Threshers	86	78	18	4	0	0	6	8	1	1	2	.231	.294	.282	.576	.051	.254	9	7	.264	60	-4	-1	—	—	+2	-0.2
2019	20	A	Lakewood BlueClaws	265	236	64	16	0	0	24	31	4	1	3	.271	.348	.339	.687	.068	.311	12	9	.316	100	-0	-1	—	—	+8	0.7
2021	22	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	56	52	12	1	1	1	4	10	0	0	0	.231	.286	.346	.632	.115	.268	18	7	.284	76	-2	+0	-0	+6	+2	0.6
2021	22	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	265	237	48	7	0	0	23	45	4	1	0	.203	.284	.232	.516	.030	.249	17	9	.246	46	-16	+0	—	—	+8	-0.9
2022	23	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	263	232	54	17	0	4	20	24	9	1	0	.233	.318	.358	.676	.125	.243	9	8	.306	93	-2	+0	—	—	+7	0.6
2022	23	A+	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	15	13	3	2	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	.231	.333	.385	.718	.154	.273	13	13	.325	107	+0	+0	—	—	+0	0.1
2022	23	INTL	Tiburones de La Guaira	88	72	26	2	0	0	15	13	1	0	0	.361	.477	.389	.866	.028	.441	15	17	.403	167	+7	+0	—	—	+2	0.9
2023	24	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	207	175	52	13	3	2	24	20	5	1	2	.297	.397	.440	.837	.143	.321	10	12	.371	142	+10	-1	—	—	+6	1.5
2023	24	INTL	Tigres de Aragua	133	108	36	10	2	3	16	11	6	3	0	.333	.446	.546	.992	.213	.340	8	12	.428	185	+13	+1	—	—	+4	1.8
2024	25	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	56	51	15	4	0	3	3	8	1	0	0	.294	.345	.549	.894	.255	.300	14	5	.383	151	+3	+0	+1	+4	+2	1.0
2024	25	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	141	118	27	2	0	2	19	28	2	0	0	.229	.345	.297	.642	.068	.278	20	13	.300	88	-2	+0	—	—	+4	0.2
2024	25	A	Clearwater Threshers	15	11	3	0	0	1	3	1	1	1	0	.273	.467	.545	1.012	.273	.222	7	20	.448	201	+2	+0	—	—	+0	0.2
2025	26	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	118	105	22	4	0	2	10	17	1	0	0	.210	.284	.305	.589	.095	.230	14	8	.267	62	-5	+0	+4	+3	+3	0.6
2025	26	INTL	Tiburones de La Guaira	44	39	7	1	0	1	4	9	1	0	1	.179	.273	.282	.555	.103	.207	20	9	.259	57	-2	-0	—	—	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			230	208	49	9	1	6	17	35	2	0	0	.236	.300	.375	.675	.139	.256	15	7	.299	87	-3	+0	+5	+12	+7	2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rafael Marchán (OGILVIE)	27	55	40	40	55	.221/.293/.345	.124	.244	4	1	15%	8%	80	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ramón Cabrera 2017 · MLB	27	53→59	39→40	42→40	46	.256/.291/.340	.084	.290	7	4	15%	5%	76	+0.0	.222/.267/.331	.109	.264	11	6	20%	5%	64	-0.8	.179/.228/.290	.111	.210	11	2	21%	5%	33	-1.0
✕Jason Jaramillo 2010 · MLB	27	50→53	41→45	44→40	47	.244/.296/.340	.096	.290	9	3	19%	6%	78	+0.2	.224/.280/.312	.088	.273	7	5	20%	6%	64	-0.8	.209/.268/.272	.063	.262	4	3	21%	6%	46	-0.8
✕Bobby Hill 2005 · MLB	27	53	42→40	45	51	.253/.334/.358	.105	.295	9	7	17%	8%	100	+1.7	.244/.325/.329	.085	.308	6	4	21%	8%	89	+0.9	.239/.325/.309	.070	.315	3	2	22%	9%	80	+0.2
✕Cord Phelps 2014 · MLB	27	47→57	46→50	45	48	.234/.292/.368	.133	.283	13	7	22%	8%	84	+0.6	.224/.286/.324	.100	.272	9	6	20%	8%	69	-0.4	.215/.282/.290	.075	.262	6	4	19%	8%	57	-0.9
✕Luis Antonio Rodriguez 2007 · MLB	27	52→51	42→45	43→45	55	.249/.316/.354	.105	.273	8	5	12%	9%	90	+1.0	.244/.308/.332	.088	.262	6	5	9%	8%	81	+0.4	.242/.310/.377	.135	.255	15	5	12%	8%	92	+0.7
✕Pedro Severino 2020 · MLB	27	44→50	47→50	46→45	47	.223/.283/.350	.127	.263	15	5	22%	7%	76	+0.1	.244/.307/.382	.138	.303	16	5	24%	8%	95	+1.4	.251/.313/.380	.128	.321	15	3	25%	8%	92	+0.5
✕Tomás Telis 2018 · MLB	27	53→60	41→45	50→45	45	.253/.290/.353	.100	.280	8	7	13%	4%	79	+0.3	.258/.290/.362	.104	.287	9	6	13%	4%	81	+0.4	.267/.296/.364	.097	.297	10	4	14%	3%	81	+0.3
✕Wiki Gonzalez 2001 · MLB	27	49	45	42→30	57	.236/.312/.361	.125	.249	12	6	11%	9%	91	+1.1	.242/.320/.377	.135	.264	14	6	14%	9%	98	+1.6	.258/.329/.385	.127	.277	13	2	12%	8%	98	+0.5
✕Augie Ojeda 2002 · MLB	27	46	43→40	47→45	55	.220/.293/.333	.113	.239	10	7	13%	9%	76	+0.0	.221/.292/.326	.105	.239	10	8	12%	8%	73	-0.1	.249/.339/.324	.075	.277	1	4	10%	10%	86	+0.3
✕Conor Gillaspie 2014 · MLB	27	48→58	47→50	41→40	50	.241/.297/.375	.134	.271	15	4	18%	7%	88	+0.9	.252/.303/.390	.138	.288	12	3	17%	7%	94	+1.3	.257/.305/.395	.138	.292	11	1	16%	6%	87	+0.5
✕Brian Buscher 2008 · MLB	27	50→57	44→45	43→45	48	.246/.299/.360	.114	.282	11	5	17%	6%	85	+0.7	.252/.316/.370	.118	.286	12	4	16%	8%	95	+1.4	.248/.319/.356	.108	.280	12	1	15%	8%	91	+0.6
✕Omar Mendoza 2010 · AAA	27	49→54	42→45	44→45	49	.236/.290/.344	.108	.275	10	8	18%	7%	77	+0.1	.236/.296/.343	.107	.278	11	8	18%	8%	79	+0.3	.240/.301/.344	.104	.284	12	8	19%	8%	79	+0.1
✕Manuel Bobadilla 2011 · AAA	27	49	43→45	44→45	49	.239/.306/.348	.108	.291	10	6	21%	8%	85	+0.7	.230/.301/.328	.098	.290	9	6	22%	8%	79	+0.3	.221/.304/.314	.093	.288	9	5	25%	8%	74	-0.0
●Terry Tiffee 2006 · MLB	27	47→57	48→45	46→30	47	.231/.273/.371	.140	.237	15	5	12%	5%	77	+0.1	.248/.281/.365	.117	.276	11	3	14%	4%	78	+0.2	.296/.317/.426	.130	.330	10	1	13%	3%	108	+1.0
✕Héctor Sánchez 2017 · MLB	27	42→49	51→50	43→30	42	.223/.272/.377	.154	.268	19	3	25%	6%	79	+0.3	.227/.275/.397	.170	.278	23	5	27%	6%	85	+0.7	.213/.243/.426	.213	.244	35	0	30%	4%	75	-0.0
✕Toby Hall 2003 · MLB	27	53→59	45	41→45	48	.260/.298/.391	.131	.267	12	5	9%	5%	92	+1.2	.257/.300/.377	.120	.266	12	2	9%	5%	89	+1.0	.260/.302/.365	.105	.271	11	0	9%	4%	83	+0.5
✕Mike Rabelo 2007 · AAA	27	50	42→45	43→40	43	.244/.298/.356	.112	.297	9	5	21%	5%	84	+0.6	.228/.281/.334	.106	.288	9	4	23%	5%	71	-0.3	.217/.263/.309	.091	.278	8	0	24%	4%	55	-0.4
✕Rob Johnson 2010 · MLB	28	48→52	41→45	41→50	47	.233/.286/.338	.104	.277	8	7	19%	6%	73	-0.1	.214/.284/.322	.108	.268	9	6	22%	8%	69	-0.4	.196/.269/.293	.097	.245	8	5	22%	8%	50	-0.7
✕Francisco Cordoba 2011 · AAA	27	46→53	45	41→40	50	.229/.301/.353	.125	.277	13	7	22%	9%	85	+0.7	.227/.278/.349	.122	.287	14	6	25%	6%	73	-0.1	.245/.293/.365	.120	.298	16	1	23%	5%	81	+0.3
✕Ruben Gotay 2010 · MLB	27	49	45	40→50	59	.240/.333/.373	.133	.288	12	6	20%	12%	103	+1.9	.230/.316/.340	.110	.293	10	5	23%	11%	88	+0.9	.227/.307/.322	.095	.291	9	5	24%	10%	76	+0.1

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)