Wyatt Olds — OGILVIE

Wyatt Olds P Worcester Red Sox

Age 26 RHP 6'0" / 183 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION64 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 111

ERA4.97

FIP4.97

K%22.7%

BB%15.8%

K-BB%6.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL2525

CMD4040

K†5055

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7996.6

Whiff%

p9034.2%

p9031.5%

xwOBA vs

p660.296

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	3	12	55	21	7	0	50%	2.0	29.6%	14.2%	15.4%	0.0%	2.25	2.39	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	3	12	55	21	7	0	50%	2.0	38.2%	12.7%	25.5%	0.0%	2.25	1.35	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	111	521	133	64	9	96%	4.1	20.0%	13.5%	6.4%	2.3%	5.92	4.37	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	111	521	133	64	9	96%	4.1	25.5%	12.3%	13.2%	1.7%	5.92	3.49	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	12	66	323	75	52	5	43%	2.3	18.0%	17.9%	0.0%	1.9%	7.54	4.88	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	12	66	323	75	52	5	43%	2.3	18.0%	17.9%	0.0%	1.9%	7.54	4.88	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	12	66	323	75	52	5	43%	2.3	23.2%	16.1%	7.1%	1.5%	7.54	4.18	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	1	78	367	109	55	9	2%	1.8	24.2%	15.1%	9.1%	2.8%	6.09	4.51	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	1	78	367	109	55	9	2%	1.8	24.2%	15.1%	9.1%	2.8%	6.09	4.51	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	1	78	367	109	55	9	2%	1.8	29.7%	15.0%	14.7%	2.5%	6.09	3.92	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	71	322	77	49	11	0%	1.7	19.7%	14.3%	5.4%	3.8%	5.05	5.33	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	71	322	77	49	11	0%	1.7	19.7%	14.3%	5.4%	3.8%	5.05	5.33	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	71	322	77	49	11	0%	1.7	23.9%	15.2%	8.7%	3.4%	5.05	5.01	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			10	0	13	54	17	5	2	0%	1.3	31.5%	9.3%	22.2%	3.7%	1.38	3.64	+0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	49	0	64	281	91	33	9	0%	1.3	27.9%	10.7%	17.2%	3.5%	4.52	4.01	—
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	49	0	64	281	91	33	9	0%	1.3	27.9%	10.7%	17.2%	3.5%	4.52	4.01	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	BOS	39	0	51	227	74	28	7	0%	1.3	32.6%	12.3%	20.3%	3.1%	5.33	3.60	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	BOS	10	0	13	54	17	5	2	0%	1.3	31.5%	9.3%	22.2%	3.7%	1.38	3.65	+0.1
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	BOS	10	0	13	54	17	5	2	0%	1.3	31.5%	9.3%	22.2%	3.7%	1.38	3.65	+0.1
ROS	26	MLB MLE	BOS	6	0	6	25	6	4	1	0%	1.0	22.7%	15.8%	6.9%	3.2%	4.97	4.97	-0.0
ROS	26	MLB CTX	BOS	6	0	6	25	6	4	1	0%	1.0	22.7%	15.8%	6.9%	3.2%	4.97	4.97	-0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	BOS	—	—	70	306	97	37	10	—	—	31.6%	12.1%	19.5%	3.2%	4.56	4.09	+0.4
FULL	26	MLB A+C	BOS	—	—	19	80	97	37	10	—	—	121.4%	46.4%	75.0%	12.3%	16.82	5.48	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	BOS	123	0	129	545	124	81	18	0%	1.0	22.7%	14.9%	7.8%	3.3%	5.25	5.26	-1.0
2028	28	MLB MLE	BOS	119	0	125	528	119	77	18	0%	1.1	22.5%	14.5%	8.0%	3.4%	5.23	5.27	-1.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	BOS	114	0	120	505	112	73	18	0%	1.0	22.3%	14.4%	7.9%	3.5%	5.28	5.35	-1.1
2030	30	MLB MLE	BOS	107	0	112	474	104	69	18	0%	1.0	21.9%	14.5%	7.4%	3.7%	5.40	5.50	-1.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	BOS	117	0	123	519	118	77	17	0%	1.1	22.7%	14.9%	7.8%	3.3%	5.25	5.26	-1.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	BOS	113	0	119	502	113	73	17	0%	1.1	22.5%	14.5%	8.0%	3.4%	5.23	5.27	-1.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	BOS	109	0	114	481	107	69	17	0%	1.0	22.3%	14.4%	7.9%	3.5%	5.28	5.35	-1.0
2030	30	MLB CTX	BOS	102	0	107	452	99	66	17	0%	1.0	21.9%	14.5%	7.4%	3.7%	5.40	5.50	-1.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		455	0	480	2028	459	293	70	0%	1.1	22.6%	14.4%	8.2%	3.5%	5.18	4.93	-2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		189	0	200	844	191	122	29	0%	1.1	22.6%	14.4%	8.2%	3.5%	5.18	4.93	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		195	42	402	1869	409	268	50	22%	2.1	21.9%	14.3%	7.6%	2.7%	5.73	4.54	-4.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		97	21	200	930	204	133	25	22%	2.1	21.9%	14.3%	7.6%	2.7%	5.73	4.54	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Wyatt Olds (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.56	21.2%	16.6%	3.2%	—	5.29	22.5%	7.9%	374	-0.27	—	—	—
Wil Jensen R 2023 · 4.88 FIP	25	SU	4.88	20.2%	12.1%	3.5%	.284	3.48	22.7%	14.3%	84	-1.40	3.48	368	72
Brian Ellington R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	26	SU	4.75	25.5%	14.9%	3.5%	.283	5.61	22.4%	5.3%	29	+0.86	2.75	233	71
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	70
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	70
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	70
Austin Vernon R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	24	SW	5.75	22.1%	16.8%	4.3%	.325	3.69	23.2%	9.9%	100	-2.06	3.37	261	70
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	69
Ryan Jensen R 2023 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	20.6%	17.0%	2.0%	.329	4.20	23.6%	6.8%	107	-0.44	4.00	311	68
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	68
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	68
Hansel Robles R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SU	4.93	22.1%	11.6%	4.1%	.267	3.60	25.5%	17.6%	145	-1.33	2.67	469	68
Gabriel Ponce R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	23.9%	14.9%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	161	68
José A. Váldez R 2016 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	22.2%	13.1%	2.9%	.205	4.22	19.6%	8.3%	211	-0.28	4.02	328	67
Luis Romero R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	25	SU	4.47	22.0%	11.0%	3.3%	.273	5.89	12.7%	1.6%	128	+1.42	4.00	293	67
Ralston Cash R 2018 · 5.12 FIP	26	SU	5.12	21.2%	13.8%	3.8%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	242	67
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	67
Dusty Isaacs R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	26	SU	5.26	19.3%	14.1%	3.7%	.287	3.16	26.8%	20.6%	26	-2.10	3.16	253	67
Parker Bugg R 2021 · 5.29 FIP	26	SU	5.29	25.3%	16.0%	4.2%	.250	4.11	22.8%	10.8%	40	-1.18	3.20	277	66
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	66
Noah Murdock R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.8%	17.1%	1.8%	.314	3.18	22.5%	9.0%	144	-1.38	2.60	306	66

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	123	22.1%	15.0%	1.32	5.34
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Brandon Finnegan ('18)	1.2	80	19.7%	11.6%	1.57	4.19
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39