Wyatt Olds

P Worcester Red Sox

Age 27 RHP 6'0" / 183 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	43	1	78	6.09	3.92	29.7%	15.0%	—	K 24.5% · BB 15.1% · FIP 4.49
2025	25	MIX2 levels	42	0	71	5.05	5.01	23.9%	15.2%	—	K 20.3% · BB 14.3% · FIP 5.28
2026	26	MIX2 levels	53	0	66	4.34	3.66	31.9%	12.2%	0.7	K 28.4% · BB 11.3% · FIP 3.95
2027PROJ	27	MLBBOS	87	0	91	4.68	4.89	25.8%	14.4%	-0.4
2028PROJ79% MLB	28	MLBBOS	78	0	82	4.80	4.91	25.3%	13.9%	-0.3
2029PROJ84% MLB	29	MLBBOS	70	0	74	4.92	5.02	24.5%	13.7%	-0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.7 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%89

FB Velo78

xwOBA vs75

Form1.15 ERA (proj 4.68) · K 29.4% (proj 25.8%) · BB 11.8% (proj 14.4%) ▲▲ last 90d · 16 IP through Oct 27

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 1.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 91%

CompsJose De La Torre (age 27) · Jacob Bosiokovic (age 27) · Peyton Gray (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.68

FIP4.89

K%25.8%

BB%14.4%

K-BB%11.4%

Proj IP131

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 131 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL2525

CMD4040

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7896.5

Whiff%

p9033.1%

p8929.4%

xwOBA vs

p750.288

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	3	12	55	21	7	0	50%	2.0	29.6%	14.2%	15.4%	0.0%	2.25	2.39	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	3	12	55	21	7	0	50%	2.0	38.2%	12.7%	25.5%	0.0%	2.25	1.35	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	111	521	133	64	9	96%	4.1	20.0%	13.5%	6.4%	2.3%	5.92	4.37	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	111	521	133	64	9	96%	4.1	25.5%	12.3%	13.2%	1.7%	5.92	3.49	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	12	66	323	75	52	5	43%	2.3	18.0%	17.9%	0.0%	1.9%	7.54	4.88	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	12	66	323	75	52	5	43%	2.3	23.2%	16.1%	7.1%	1.5%	7.54	4.18	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	1	78	367	109	55	9	2%	1.8	24.5%	15.1%	9.4%	2.8%	6.09	4.49	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	1	78	367	109	55	9	2%	1.8	24.5%	15.1%	9.4%	2.8%	6.09	4.49	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	1	78	367	109	55	9	2%	1.8	29.7%	15.0%	14.7%	2.5%	6.09	3.92	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	71	322	77	49	11	0%	1.7	20.3%	14.3%	6.0%	3.8%	5.05	5.28	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	71	322	77	49	11	0%	1.7	20.3%	14.3%	6.0%	3.8%	5.05	5.28	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	71	322	77	49	11	0%	1.7	23.9%	15.2%	8.7%	3.4%	5.05	5.01	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	66	295	94	36	9	0%	1.3	28.4%	11.3%	17.1%	3.3%	4.34	3.95	+0.5
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	66	295	94	36	9	0%	1.3	28.4%	11.3%	17.1%	3.3%	4.34	3.95	+0.5
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	66	295	94	36	9	0%	1.3	31.9%	12.2%	19.7%	3.1%	4.34	3.66	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			14	0	16	68	20	8	2	0%	1.1	29.4%	11.8%	17.6%	2.9%	1.15	3.74	+0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	BOS	87	0	91	384	99	55	12	0%	1.0	25.8%	14.4%	11.4%	3.2%	4.68	4.89	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	BOS	98	0	103	435	110	60	14	0%	1.1	25.3%	13.9%	11.4%	3.3%	4.80	4.91	-0.4
2029	29	MLB MLE	BOS	84	0	88	371	91	51	13	0%	1.0	24.5%	13.7%	10.8%	3.4%	4.92	5.02	-0.5
2030	30	MLB MLE	BOS	73	0	77	324	77	44	12	0%	1.1	23.6%	13.7%	10.0%	3.6%	5.07	5.19	-0.6
2028	28	MLB CTX	BOS	78	0	82	346	88	48	11	0%	1.1	25.3%	13.9%	11.4%	3.3%	4.80	4.91	-0.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	BOS	70	0	74	312	76	43	11	0%	1.1	24.5%	13.7%	10.8%	3.4%	4.92	5.02	-0.4
2030	30	MLB CTX	BOS	64	0	67	283	67	39	10	0%	1.0	23.6%	13.7%	10.0%	3.6%	5.07	5.19	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		226	0	239	1010	251	137	34	0%	1.1	24.9%	13.6%	11.3%	3.4%	4.67	4.59	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	846	210	115	28	0%	1.1	24.9%	13.6%	11.3%	3.4%	4.67	4.59	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		199	42	405	1883	417	271	50	21%	2.0	22.2%	14.4%	7.8%	2.7%	5.69	4.51	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		98	21	200	931	206	134	25	21%	2.0	22.2%	14.4%	7.8%	2.7%	5.69	4.51	-0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 51 IPFIP 3.60 → 4.00 (+0.40)K% 32.6% → 28.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.60%	—	×0.860	28.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.33%	—	×0.900	11.10%
HR / BF /BF	3.08%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.39%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.60 → 4.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 53 IPFIP 5.18 → 5.51 (+0.33)K% 25.0% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.860	21.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.53%	—	×0.900	14.87%
HR / BF /BF	3.81%	÷0.984	×1.100	4.26%

Result: FIP 5.18 → 5.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 18 IPFIP 4.08 → 4.66 (+0.58)K% 20.9% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.93%	—	×0.810	16.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.63%	—	×1.100	12.79%
HR / BF /BF	2.33%	÷1.119	×1.200	2.49%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 124).

Result: FIP 4.08 → 4.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 54 IPFIP 3.22 → 4.07 (+0.85)K% 30.5% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.45%	—	×0.810	24.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.35%	—	×1.100	13.58%
HR / BF /BF	2.06%	÷1.018	×1.200	2.43%

Result: FIP 3.22 → 4.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 25 IPFIP 5.04 → 5.30 (+0.26)K% 28.2% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.23%	—	×0.860	24.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.16%	—	×0.900	18.15%
HR / BF /BF	3.23%	÷0.996	×1.100	3.56%

Result: FIP 5.04 → 5.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 46 IPFIP 4.61 → 5.37 (+0.75)K% 22.8% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.78%	—	×0.810	18.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.83%	—	×1.100	21.81%
HR / BF /BF	1.69%	÷1.048	×1.200	1.93%

Result: FIP 4.61 → 5.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Red Sox · 20 IPFIP 2.41 → 3.54 (+1.12)K% 24.4% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.42%	—	×0.680	16.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.81%	—	×1.250	7.27%
HR / BF /BF	1.16%	÷0.974	×1.400	1.67%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 2.41 → 3.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Greenville Drive · 106 IPFIP 3.39 → 4.37 (+0.98)K% 25.9% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.95%	—	×0.770	19.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.78%	—	×1.150	13.54%
HR / BF /BF	1.80%	÷0.996	×1.250	2.25%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 3.39 → 4.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Wyatt Olds (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.89	25.8%	14.4%	3.2%	—	5.03	24.6%	10.8%	268	+0.14	—	—	—
Jose De La Torre R 2013 · 5.22 FIP	27	SU	5.22	28.3%	18.9%	3.9%	.308	3.87	17.6%	6.6%	110	-1.35	2.64	141	78
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	26.4%	14.3%	2.3%	.274	4.80	21.7%	10.2%	69	+0.87	3.84	181	77
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	77
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	75
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	75
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	74
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	74
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	73
Michael Ynoa R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	23.1%	13.8%	3.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	142	73
Scott Dohmann R 2005 · 4.93 FIP	27	SU	4.93	24.5%	12.6%	4.2%	.321	4.69	18.9%	7.5%	96	-0.24	4.28	173	73
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	73
Cristofer Ogando R 2021 · 4.83 FIP	27	SU	4.83	26.8%	10.9%	4.8%	.281	4.90	20.6%	9.0%	53	+0.07	3.23	179	72
Grant Balfour R 2004 · 3.79 FIP	26	SU	3.79	24.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.292	4.01	24.8%	8.3%	25	+0.22	2.04	533	72
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	72
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	72
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	72
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	72
Brooks Wilson R 2024 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	25.5%	13.6%	3.5%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	194	72
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	72
Brian Ellington R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	26	SU	4.75	25.5%	14.9%	3.5%	.283	5.61	22.4%	5.3%	29	+0.86	2.75	233	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	104	25.1%	13.9%	1.29	4.70
Dan Warthen ('75-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.5	102	24.8%*	14.2%*	1.27*	4.86*
Michael Kopech ('25)	2.1	103	25.8%	12.5%	1.45	4.14
Bob Gibson ('83-'87, -0 WAR*)	1.3	67	20.4%*	14.0%*	1.14*	4.52*
Tim Birtsas ('85-'90, -0 WAR*)	1.6	82	21.4%*	11.7%*	1.31*	4.63*
Touki Toussaint ('25)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.24	5.42
Britt Reames ('06)	1.1	73	20.7%	12.0%	1.32	5.28