Grant Holmes — OGILVIE

Grant Holmes P Atlanta Braves

Age 30 RHP 6'0" / 226 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.6 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION138 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.19

FIP4.29

K%20.6%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%11.0%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 150 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4594.2

Whiff%

p6427.5%

p2718.9%

xwOBA vs

p320.333

FB+4.7 (40%)

SL+0.7 (36%)

CH+0.5 (7%)

CT (9%)

SI (11%)

CU (8%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 1.616 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.2M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.1M		$-0.5M	+$0.2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	19	A MLE	Great Lakes Loons	24	24	103	440	117	54	6	100%	4.3	19.7%	14.5%	5.2%	2.0%	3.14	4.36	—
2015	19	A RAW	Great Lakes Loons	24	24	103	440	117	54	6	100%	4.3	26.6%	12.3%	14.3%	1.4%	3.14	3.16	—
2016	20	A+ MLE	Stockton Ports	26	23	134	595	124	53	10	88%	5.2	16.0%	10.2%	5.8%	2.0%	4.63	4.12	—
2016	20	A+ RAW	Stockton Ports	26	23	134	595	124	53	10	88%	5.2	20.8%	8.9%	11.9%	1.7%	4.63	3.41	—
2017	21	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	29	24	148	644	150	59	15	83%	5.1	18.9%	10.1%	8.8%	3.2%	4.49	4.56	—
2017	21	AA RAW	Midland RockHounds	29	24	148	644	150	59	15	83%	5.1	23.3%	9.2%	14.1%	2.3%	4.49	3.59	—
2018	22	A+ MLE	Stockton Ports	2	2	6	27	8	2	1	100%	3.0	29.6%	7.4%	22.2%	3.7%	4.50	3.57	—
2018	22	A+ RAW	Stockton Ports	2	2	6	27	8	2	1	100%	3.0	29.6%	7.4%	22.2%	3.7%	4.50	3.60	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	17	86	356	81	28	10	74%	3.8	18.2%	8.8%	9.4%	3.3%	3.23	4.51	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	17	86	356	81	28	10	74%	3.8	22.8%	7.9%	14.9%	2.8%	3.23	3.70	—
2021	25	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	36	7	66	336	71	39	11	19%	1.8	18.6%	12.2%	6.4%	3.8%	8.01	5.17	—
2021	25	AAA RAW	Las Vegas Aviators	36	7	66	336	71	39	11	19%	1.8	21.1%	11.6%	9.5%	3.3%	8.01	4.88	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	4	41	197	30	15	10	13%	1.3	12.6%	8.1%	4.5%	5.6%	8.19	6.15	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	4	41	197	30	15	10	13%	1.3	15.2%	7.6%	7.6%	5.1%	8.19	5.93	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	50	0	61	258	74	26	5	0%	1.2	23.8%	9.1%	14.7%	2.2%	3.54	3.43	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	50	0	61	258	74	26	5	0%	1.2	23.8%	9.1%	14.7%	2.2%	3.54	3.43	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Stripers	50	0	61	258	74	26	5	0%	1.2	28.7%	10.1%	18.6%	1.9%	3.54	3.02	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	10	109	450	121	26	11	23%	2.5	25.0%	5.5%	19.5%	2.6%	3.21	3.10	+1.9
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	10	109	450	121	26	11	23%	2.5	25.0%	5.5%	19.5%	2.6%	3.21	3.10	+1.9
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	10	109	450	121	26	11	23%	2.5	26.9%	5.8%	21.1%	2.4%	3.21	2.91	+2.2
2025	29	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	22	21	115	492	123	53	16	95%	5.2	25.0%	10.8%	14.2%	3.3%	3.99	4.14	+1.0
2025	29	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	22	21	115	492	123	53	16	95%	5.2	25.0%	10.8%	14.2%	3.3%	3.99	4.14	+1.0
2025	29	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	22	21	115	492	123	53	16	95%	5.2	25.0%	10.8%	14.2%	3.3%	3.99	4.15	+1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			76	55	321	1357	303	123	42	72%	4.2	22.3%	9.1%	13.3%	3.1%	3.67	4.06	+3.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	28	27	138	583	110	57	19	96%	4.9	18.9%	9.8%	9.1%	3.3%	3.46	4.53	+0.6
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	28	27	138	583	110	57	19	96%	4.9	18.9%	9.8%	9.1%	3.3%	3.46	4.53	+0.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	MLB RAW	ATL	28	27	138	583	110	57	19	96%	4.9	18.9%	9.8%	9.1%	3.3%	3.46	4.53	+0.6
SO FAR	30	MLB RAW	ATL	28	27	138	583	110	57	19	96%	4.9	18.9%	9.8%	9.1%	3.3%	3.46	4.53	+0.6
ROS	30	MLB MLE	ATL	2	2	13	53	11	5	2	100%	6.3	20.6%	9.6%	11.0%	3.1%	4.19	4.29	+0.1
ROS	30	MLB CTX	ATL	2	2	13	55	11	5	2	100%	6.5	20.6%	9.6%	11.0%	3.1%	4.19	4.29	+0.1
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	ATL	—	—	150	636	121	62	21	—	—	19.0%	9.8%	9.2%	3.2%	3.53	4.51	+0.7
FULL	30	MLB A+C	ATL	—	—	150	635	121	62	21	—	—	19.1%	9.8%	9.3%	3.3%	3.53	4.52	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	ATL	17	17	104	439	90	44	15	100%	6.1	20.4%	10.0%	10.5%	3.4%	4.75	4.88	+0.0
2028	32	MLB MLE	ATL	16	16	96	406	80	42	15	100%	6.0	19.6%	10.4%	9.2%	3.6%	4.98	5.14	-0.3
2027	31	MLB CTX	ATL	16	16	99	418	85	42	14	100%	6.2	20.4%	10.0%	10.5%	3.4%	4.75	4.88	+0.0
2028	32	MLB CTX	ATL	15	15	91	384	75	40	14	100%	6.1	19.6%	10.4%	9.2%	3.6%	4.98	5.14	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		110	89	524	2213	475	210	72	81%	4.8	21.5%	9.5%	12.0%	3.2%	4.12	4.27	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		42	34	200	845	181	80	27	81%	4.8	21.5%	9.5%	12.0%	3.2%	4.12	4.27	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		315	159	1008	4378	870	438	130	50%	3.2	19.9%	10.0%	9.9%	3.0%	4.25	4.32	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	32	200	869	173	87	26	50%	3.2	19.9%	10.0%	9.9%	3.0%	4.25	4.32	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Grant Holmes (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.19	25.6%	9.3%	3.1%	—	5.00	20.0%	9.9%	200	+0.81	—	—	—
Mitch Atkins R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	30	SP-	3.65	21.4%	8.2%	2.4%	.341	4.77	14.3%	6.2%	78	+1.12	3.65	205	74
Odrisamer Despaigne R 2017 · 4.09 FIP	30	SW	4.09	13.7%	8.7%	1.9%	.270	3.53	19.1%	10.5%	220	-0.56	3.13	593	72
Michael Bowden R 2015 · 3.21 FIP	28	SP-	3.21	17.3%	6.4%	1.4%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	141	71
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	70
Tim Adleman R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	29	SP-	5.35	20.3%	9.4%	5.1%	.276	4.30	22.8%	15.0%	117	-1.05	3.63	605	70
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	70
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	69
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	265	69
Burch Smith R 2019 · 3.96 FIP	29	SW	3.96	22.6%	12.3%	2.2%	.271	4.19	14.9%	9.0%	43	+0.23	3.50	382	69
Jason Berken R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	31	SW	4.34	13.5%	6.6%	2.8%	.315	4.54	11.5%	3.2%	106	+0.20	4.34	219	68
Dillon Gee R 2016 · 5.10 FIP	30	SW	5.10	16.2%	6.2%	4.7%	.302	3.85	18.0%	12.1%	127	-1.25	3.67	380	67
Mike Bolsinger R 2017 · 4.26 FIP	29	SW	4.26	20.2%	9.4%	3.0%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	327	66
Tiago Da Silva R 2015 · 3.10 FIP	30	SW	3.10	19.6%	4.5%	2.0%	.278	2.38	21.4%	18.5%	98	-0.72	2.21	287	66
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	4.13	133	66
Daniel McCutchen R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	32	SP-	4.30	13.9%	4.4%	3.3%	.268	4.74	10.8%	4.9%	155	+0.44	4.30	287	65
Bruce Billings R 2015 · 3.09 FIP	29	SP-	3.09	15.6%	5.6%	1.1%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	121	65
Jerome Williams R 2015 · 4.72 FIP	33	SP-	4.72	13.4%	5.6%	3.7%	.326	5.81	11.7%	5.6%	74	+1.09	4.72	195	65
David Hale R 2018 · 4.22 FIP	30	SP-	4.22	15.4%	7.5%	2.7%	.299	3.65	17.1%	11.3%	114	-0.57	3.30	493	65
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	65
Chi Chi González R 2022 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.6%	8.0%	3.0%	.315	5.36	10.8%	5.2%	122	+1.06	4.01	800	65

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	104	22.0%	9.9%	1.30	4.58
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Kyle Wright ('23)	1.2	83	22.4%	8.9%	1.12	3.97
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	1.7	85	22.9%	8.2%	1.09	4.24
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54