Grant Holmes

P Atlanta Braves

Age 31 RHP 6'0" / 226 lbs MLB peak 0.8 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	28	MIX2 levels	44	10	109	3.21	2.91	26.9%	5.8%	2.2	K 25.3% · BB 5.5% · FIP 3.07
2025	29	MLBATL	22	21	115	3.99	4.15	25.0%	10.8%	1.7
2026	30	MLBATL	31	29	152	3.44	4.70	17.9%	9.7%	1.2
2027PROJ	31	MLBATL	16	16	102	4.46	4.72	21.3%	9.8%	0.8
2028PROJ95% MLB	32	MLBATL	12	12	73	4.77	4.98	20.5%	10.2%	0.3
2029PROJ95% MLB	33	MLBATL	9	9	53	5.06	5.26	19.7%	10.6%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 5.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo45

xwOBA vs24

K%21

Form1.96 ERA (proj 4.46) · K 13.3% (proj 21.3%) · BB 7.8% (proj 9.8%) ▼▼ last 60d · 23 IP through Oct 27

CompsChase Anderson (age 31) · Marco Estrada (age 31) · Tom Koehler (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.46

FIP4.72

K%21.3%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%11.6%

Proj IP102

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 102 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4594.2

Whiff%

p6327.3%

p2117.9%

xwOBA vs

p240.342

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	19	A MLE	Great Lakes Loons	24	24	103	440	117	54	6	100%	4.3	19.7%	14.5%	5.2%	2.0%	3.14	4.36	—
2015	19	A RAW	Great Lakes Loons	24	24	103	440	117	54	6	100%	4.3	26.6%	12.3%	14.3%	1.4%	3.14	3.16	—
2016	20	A+ MLE	Stockton Ports	26	23	134	595	124	53	10	88%	5.2	16.0%	10.2%	5.8%	2.0%	4.63	4.12	—
2016	20	A+ RAW	Stockton Ports	26	23	134	595	124	53	10	88%	5.2	20.8%	8.9%	11.9%	1.7%	4.63	3.41	—
2017	21	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	29	24	148	644	150	59	15	83%	5.1	18.9%	10.1%	8.8%	3.2%	4.49	4.56	—
2017	21	AA RAW	Midland RockHounds	29	24	148	644	150	59	15	83%	5.1	23.3%	9.2%	14.1%	2.3%	4.49	3.59	—
2018	22	A+ MLE	Stockton Ports	2	2	6	27	8	2	1	100%	3.0	29.6%	7.4%	22.2%	3.7%	4.50	3.57	—
2018	22	A+ RAW	Stockton Ports	2	2	6	27	8	2	1	100%	3.0	29.6%	7.4%	22.2%	3.7%	4.50	3.60	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	17	86	356	81	28	10	74%	3.8	18.2%	8.8%	9.4%	3.3%	3.23	4.51	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	17	86	356	81	28	10	74%	3.8	22.8%	7.9%	14.9%	2.8%	3.23	3.70	—
2021	25	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	36	7	66	336	71	39	11	19%	1.8	18.6%	12.2%	6.4%	3.8%	8.01	5.17	—
2021	25	AAA RAW	Las Vegas Aviators	36	7	66	336	71	39	11	19%	1.8	21.1%	11.6%	9.5%	3.3%	8.01	4.88	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	4	41	197	30	15	10	13%	1.3	12.6%	8.1%	4.5%	5.6%	8.19	6.15	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	4	41	197	30	15	10	13%	1.3	15.2%	7.6%	7.6%	5.1%	8.19	5.93	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	50	0	61	258	74	26	5	0%	1.2	24.7%	9.1%	15.6%	2.2%	3.54	3.35	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Stripers	50	0	61	258	74	26	5	0%	1.2	28.7%	10.1%	18.6%	1.9%	3.54	3.02	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	10	109	450	121	26	11	23%	2.5	25.3%	5.5%	19.8%	2.6%	3.21	3.07	+2.0
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	10	109	450	121	26	11	23%	2.5	25.3%	5.5%	19.8%	2.6%	3.21	3.07	+2.0
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	10	109	450	121	26	11	23%	2.5	26.9%	5.8%	21.1%	2.4%	3.21	2.91	+2.2
2025	29	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	22	21	115	492	123	53	16	95%	5.2	25.0%	10.8%	14.2%	3.3%	3.99	4.14	+1.7
2025	29	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	22	21	115	492	123	53	16	95%	5.2	25.0%	10.8%	14.2%	3.3%	3.99	4.14	+1.7
2025	29	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	22	21	115	492	123	53	16	95%	5.2	25.0%	10.8%	14.2%	3.3%	3.99	4.15	+1.7
2026	30	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	31	29	152	642	115	62	22	94%	4.9	17.9%	9.7%	8.3%	3.4%	3.44	4.69	+1.2
2026	30	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	31	29	152	642	115	62	22	94%	4.9	17.9%	9.7%	8.3%	3.4%	3.44	4.69	+1.2
2026	30	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	31	29	152	642	115	62	22	94%	4.9	17.9%	9.7%	8.3%	3.4%	3.44	4.70	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			79	57	335	1416	308	128	45	72%	4.2	21.8%	9.0%	12.7%	3.2%	3.65	4.15	+4.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	ATL	16	16	102	431	92	42	14	100%	6.4	21.3%	9.8%	11.6%	3.3%	4.46	4.72	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	ATL	12	12	77	326	67	33	12	100%	6.4	20.5%	10.2%	10.4%	3.5%	4.77	4.98	+0.4
2029	33	MLB MLE	ATL	9	9	55	234	46	25	9	100%	6.2	19.7%	10.6%	9.1%	3.8%	5.06	5.26	+0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	ATL	12	12	73	308	63	31	11	100%	6.1	20.5%	10.2%	10.4%	3.5%	4.77	4.98	+0.3
2029	33	MLB CTX	ATL	9	9	53	224	44	24	9	100%	5.9	19.7%	10.6%	9.1%	3.8%	5.06	5.26	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		99	77	461	1948	415	183	64	78%	4.7	21.3%	9.4%	11.9%	3.3%	3.99	4.31	+5.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	34	200	845	180	79	28	78%	4.6	21.3%	9.4%	11.9%	3.3%	3.99	4.31	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		318	161	1022	4437	879	443	133	51%	3.2	19.8%	10.0%	9.8%	3.0%	4.24	4.34	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	32	200	868	172	87	26	51%	3.2	19.8%	10.0%	9.8%	3.0%	4.24	4.34	+2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 41 IPFIP 2.82 → 3.26 (+0.44)K% 30.4% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.36%	—	×0.860	26.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.74%	—	×0.900	6.96%
HR / BF /BF	2.38%	÷0.968	×1.100	2.71%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 2.82 → 3.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 61 IPFIP 3.02 → 3.35 (+0.34)K% 28.7% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.68%	—	×0.860	24.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.08%	—	×0.900	9.07%
HR / BF /BF	1.94%	÷0.984	×1.100	2.17%

Result: FIP 3.02 → 3.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 37 IPFIP 5.88 → 6.15 (+0.26)K% 14.3% → 12.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.29%	—	×0.880	12.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.050	8.08%
HR / BF /BF	5.49%	÷1.075	×1.100	5.62%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 5.88 → 6.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 66 IPFIP 4.58 → 5.17 (+0.59)K% 21.1% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.13%	—	×0.880	18.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.61%	—	×1.050	12.19%
HR / BF /BF	3.27%	÷0.941	×1.100	3.83%

Result: FIP 4.58 → 5.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAMidland RockHounds · 82 IPFIP 3.67 → 4.51 (+0.84)K% 22.5% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.49%	—	×0.810	18.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.99%	—	×1.100	8.79%
HR / BF /BF	2.66%	÷0.954	×1.200	3.35%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 3.67 → 4.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Stockton Ports · 6 IPFIP 3.57 → 4.29 (+0.73)K% 29.6% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.63%	—	×0.770	22.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.41%	—	×1.150	8.52%
HR / BF /BF	3.70%	÷1.244	×1.250	3.72%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 149).

Result: FIP 3.57 → 4.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAMidland RockHounds · 148 IPFIP 3.57 → 4.56 (+0.99)K% 23.3% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.29%	—	×0.810	18.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.16%	—	×1.100	10.08%
HR / BF /BF	2.33%	÷0.862	×1.200	3.24%

Result: FIP 3.57 → 4.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 A+Stockton Ports · 134 IPFIP 3.39 → 4.12 (+0.73)K% 20.8% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.84%	—	×0.770	16.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.91%	—	×1.150	10.24%
HR / BF /BF	1.68%	÷1.066	×1.250	1.97%

Result: FIP 3.39 → 4.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Grant Holmes (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.3%	—	5.10	20.2%	9.8%	133	+0.38	—	—	—
Chase Anderson R 2019 · 4.39 FIP	31	SP	4.39	20.9%	8.1%	3.7%	.259	5.39	19.2%	10.0%	218	+1.00	3.30	1,260	62
Marco Estrada R 2014 · 4.70 FIP	31	SW	4.70	20.4%	7.1%	4.4%	.255	4.28	20.9%	12.6%	543	-0.42	3.28	1,244	62
Tom Koehler R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	31	SP-	4.66	22.4%	9.0%	4.2%	.298	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	822	60
Kenta Maeda R 2019 · 3.68 FIP	31	SP-	3.68	27.1%	8.0%	3.4%	.240	3.44	27.8%	22.0%	173	-0.24	2.87	1,092	60
Luke Hudson R 2006 · 3.81 FIP	29	SP-	3.81	14.5%	8.4%	1.6%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	235	59
Samuel Deduno R 2014 · 3.92 FIP	31	SW	3.92	18.7%	9.9%	2.1%	.287	3.84	19.8%	12.3%	39	-0.08	2.99	327	58
Mike Wright Jr. R 2021 · 3.89 FIP	31	SP-	3.89	19.1%	8.8%	2.4%	.237	4.79	14.4%	1.1%	56	+0.90	3.76	725	58
Josh A. Smith R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	31	SW	4.65	20.8%	6.4%	4.5%	.341	3.67	17.4%	8.6%	59	-0.98	2.91	598	58
Brad Peacock R 2019 · 4.22 FIP	31	SP-	4.22	25.1%	8.1%	4.0%	.261	4.15	22.8%	12.5%	96	-0.07	2.97	748	57
Todd Redmond R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	30	SW	3.86	15.4%	7.1%	2.1%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	247	57
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2012 · 4.28 FIP	31	SP-	4.28	19.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.277	3.45	21.5%	17.8%	528	-0.83	3.19	884	55
Ramon Ortiz R 2004 · 4.44 FIP	31	SW	4.44	15.1%	6.3%	3.3%	.296	4.95	12.0%	6.2%	466	+0.51	4.32	1,525	54
Jorge Campillo R 2008 · 3.93 FIP	29	SP-	3.93	16.3%	5.5%	2.8%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	172	53
Scott Copeland R 2019 · 5.62 FIP	31	SP-	5.62	17.1%	12.4%	4.4%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	569	52
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	51
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	50
Casey Lawrence R 2018 · 3.77 FIP	30	SP-	3.77	18.1%	4.4%	3.0%	.305	4.08	20.0%	14.8%	86	+0.31	3.57	1,374	50
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	3.84	193	50
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	50
Wes Obermueller R 2007 · 4.83 FIP	30	SW	4.83	12.6%	11.2%	2.5%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.72	308	50

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	95	21.3%	9.6%	1.28	4.09
Vicente Romo ('68-'82, 5 WAR*)	3.2	81	20.5%*	9.7%*	1.21*	4.01*
Mel Queen ('66-'72, 4 WAR*)	1.9	97	24.2%*	9.0%*	1.27*	3.77*
Joey McLaughlin ('77-'84, 4 WAR*)	2.2	75	21.7%*	10.4%*	1.24*	3.85*
Brad Peacock ('21)	2.8	93	24.7%	10.1%	1.27	4.11
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	85	21.2%	10.9%	1.17	4.06
Randall Delgado ('18)	2.7	78	20.1%	8.8%	1.11	4.10