Grant Holmes
P
Atlanta Braves
+1.3
WAR
Age 30
RHP
6'0" / 226 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 1.3 · 2026
ERA4.07
FIP4.22
xFIP4.37
SIERA4.55
K%24.9%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%15.6%
IP112
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.3peak
2026
K†6060
FB Velo
p5294.7
Whiff%
p8731.1%
K%
p3219.6%
xwOBA vs
p620.300
FB+4.7 (43%)
SL+0.7 (37%)
CH+0.5 (4%)
CT (5%)
SI (6%)
CU (10%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | A | Great Lakes Loons | 24 | 24 | 103 | 440 | 117 | 54 | 6 | 19.7% | 14.5% | 1.9% | 3.14 | 4.33 | +1.1 |
| 2016 | 20 | A+ | Stockton Ports | 26 | 23 | 134 | 595 | 124 | 53 | 10 | 16.0% | 10.2% | 1.9% | 4.63 | 4.10 | +1.8 |
| 2017 | 21 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 29 | 24 | 148 | 644 | 150 | 59 | 15 | 18.9% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 4.49 | 4.60 | +1.2 |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Stockton Ports | 2 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 8 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.50 | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 23 | 17 | 86 | 356 | 81 | 28 | 10 | 18.2% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 3.23 | 4.49 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 36 | 7 | 66 | 336 | 71 | 39 | 11 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.9% | 8.01 | 5.19 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 31 | 4 | 41 | 197 | 30 | 15 | 10 | 12.6% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 8.19 | 6.13 | -0.5 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 50 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 74 | 26 | 5 | 25.2% | 10.6% | 2.2% | 3.54 | 3.50 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 44 | 10 | 109 | 450 | 121 | 26 | 11 | 25.5% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 3.21 | 3.17 | +2.6 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 22 | 21 | 115 | 492 | 123 | 53 | 16 | 25.0% | 10.8% | 3.2% | 3.99 | 4.13 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 4 | 4 | 22 | 88 | 17 | 10 | 2 | 19.3% | 11.4% | 2.3% | 3.32 | 4.16 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | ATL | 15 | 15 | 82 | 346 | 81 | 34 | 10 | 23.5% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 3.83 | 3.99 | +1.1 |
| 2026 Total | 30 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 104 | 434 | 98 | 44 | 12 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 3.73 | 4.03 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 17 | 17 | 93 | 393 | 90 | 39 | 12 | 23.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.37 | 4.47 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 15 | 15 | 83 | 351 | 78 | 35 | 11 | 22.4% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 4.50 | 4.59 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 13 | 13 | 74 | 312 | 74 | 29 | 10 | 23.7% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.47 | 4.45 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 65 | 275 | 63 | 26 | 9 | 23.0% | 9.6% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.58 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | ATL | 57 | — | 57 | 241 | 54 | 24 | 8 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 4.66 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | ATL | 50 | — | 50 | 210 | 45 | 21 | 7 | 21.5% | 10.1% | 3.6% | 4.80 | 4.90 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 291 | 136 | 892 | 3883 | 784 | 397 | 114 | 20.2% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 4.29 | +10.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 65 | 30 | 200 | 871 | 176 | 89 | 26 | 20.2% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 4.29 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Grant Holmes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.23 | 25.4% | 9.3% | 3.1% | — | 4.50 | 23.0% | 13.2% | 250 | +0.27 | — | — | — |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2028 · 4.56 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .316 | 4.46 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.10 | 4.46 | 143 | 77 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2027 · 4.52 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.52 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.86 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.34 | 4.52 | 150 | 76 |
| Hector Noesí R 2024 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 76 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 76 |
| Ramon Ramirez R 2028 · 3.56 FIP | 32 | SP- | 3.56 | 16.9% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .310 | 5.29 | 9.2% | -4.9% | 29 | +1.73 | 3.56 | 155 | 75 |
| Mitch Atkins R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.70 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .341 | 4.75 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.05 | 3.70 | 205 | 75 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2029 · 3.74 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.74 | 15.2% | 8.0% | 1.7% | .262 | 4.37 | 16.2% | 8.2% | 114 | +0.63 | 3.74 | 240 | 75 |
| Cesar Carrillo R 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.16 | 13.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .307 | 4.46 | 12.6% | 2.6% | 145 | +0.30 | 4.16 | 325 | 75 |
| Jason Berken R 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.51 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | +0.15 | 4.36 | 219 | 75 |
| Ervin Santana R 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.00 | 17.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .273 | 4.12 | 19.2% | 12.4% | 417 | +0.12 | 3.75 | 720 | 74 |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.36 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.4% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 265 | 74 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.13 | 15.7% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 248 | 74 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.16 | 18.2% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .265 | 3.45 | 17.8% | 10.8% | 81 | -0.71 | 3.45 | 315 | 73 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.40 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 1.8% | .289 | 4.45 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 115 | +0.05 | 4.33 | 221 | 73 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2029 · 3.77 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.77 | 14.5% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .270 | 4.63 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 176 | +0.86 | 3.77 | 264 | 73 |
| Jeremy Kehrt R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.17 | 12.7% | 7.4% | 2.2% | .333 | 4.72 | 8.5% | -4.6% | 21 | +0.55 | 3.38 | 262 | 73 |
| Michael Bowden R 2024 · 3.20 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.20 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 1.4% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 141 | 72 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.08 | 13.7% | 8.7% | 1.9% | .270 | 3.56 | 19.1% | 10.5% | 220 | -0.52 | 3.14 | 593 | 72 |
| Luke Irvine R 2023 · 4.31 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.31 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 104 | 71 |
| Scott McGregor R 2024 · 4.41 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.41 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 107 | 71 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2024
Service 1.616 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2031
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.3 | $10M | +$10M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.8 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $1M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.2M |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $6M | $19M | +$13M | ||