Grant Holmes
P
Atlanta Braves
Age 30
RHP
6'0" / 226 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 1.6 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION87 act + 58 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.28
FIP4.39
K%22.3%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%12.3%
ROS IP58
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 146 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4594.2
Whiff%
p6026.9%
K%
p3620.2%
xwOBA vs
p350.329
FB+4.7 (43%)
SL+0.7 (37%)
CH+0.5 (5%)
CT (7%)
SI (11%)
CU (8%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | A | Great Lakes Loons | 24 | 24 | 103 | 440 | 117 | 54 | 6 | 100% | 4.3 | 19.7% | 14.5% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 3.14 | 4.51 | — |
| 2015 | 19 | A | Great Lakes Loons | 24 | 24 | 103 | 440 | 117 | 54 | 6 | 100% | 4.3 | 26.6% | 12.3% | 14.3% | 1.4% | 3.14 | 3.16 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A+ | Stockton Ports | 26 | 23 | 134 | 595 | 124 | 53 | 10 | 88% | 5.2 | 16.0% | 10.2% | 5.8% | 1.9% | 4.63 | 4.06 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A+ | Stockton Ports | 26 | 23 | 134 | 595 | 124 | 53 | 10 | 88% | 5.2 | 20.8% | 8.9% | 11.9% | 1.7% | 4.63 | 3.41 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 29 | 24 | 148 | 644 | 150 | 59 | 15 | 83% | 5.1 | 18.9% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 3.9% | 4.49 | 4.90 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 29 | 24 | 148 | 644 | 150 | 59 | 15 | 83% | 5.1 | 23.3% | 9.2% | 14.1% | 2.3% | 4.49 | 3.59 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Stockton Ports | 2 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 3.0 | 29.6% | 7.4% | 22.2% | 3.7% | 4.50 | 3.57 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Stockton Ports | 2 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 3.0 | 29.6% | 7.4% | 22.2% | 3.7% | 4.50 | 3.60 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 17 | 86 | 356 | 81 | 28 | 10 | 74% | 3.8 | 18.2% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 3.23 | 4.61 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 17 | 86 | 356 | 81 | 28 | 10 | 74% | 3.8 | 22.8% | 7.9% | 14.9% | 2.8% | 3.23 | 3.70 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 36 | 7 | 66 | 336 | 71 | 39 | 11 | 19% | 1.8 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 8.01 | 5.31 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 36 | 7 | 66 | 336 | 71 | 39 | 11 | 19% | 1.8 | 21.1% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 8.01 | 4.88 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 4 | 41 | 197 | 30 | 15 | 10 | 13% | 1.3 | 12.6% | 8.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 8.19 | 5.94 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 4 | 41 | 197 | 30 | 15 | 10 | 13% | 1.3 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 8.19 | 5.93 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 50 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 74 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.2% | 10.6% | 14.7% | 2.2% | 3.54 | 3.52 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 50 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 74 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 28.7% | 10.1% | 18.6% | 1.9% | 3.54 | 3.02 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 10 | 109 | 450 | 121 | 26 | 11 | 23% | 2.5 | 25.5% | 5.9% | 19.6% | 2.6% | 3.21 | 3.12 | +2.9 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 10 | 109 | 450 | 121 | 26 | 11 | 23% | 2.5 | 26.9% | 5.8% | 21.1% | 2.4% | 3.21 | 2.91 | +3.2 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 22 | 21 | 115 | 492 | 123 | 53 | 16 | 95% | 5.2 | 25.0% | 10.8% | 14.2% | 3.3% | 3.99 | 4.14 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 22 | 21 | 115 | 492 | 123 | 53 | 16 | 95% | 5.2 | 25.0% | 10.8% | 14.2% | 3.3% | 3.99 | 4.15 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 18 | 17 | 87 | 376 | 76 | 39 | 15 | 94% | 4.9 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 4.0% | 3.61 | 4.90 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | ATL | 10 | 10 | 58 | 246 | 55 | 25 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.3% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 3.5% | 4.28 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | ATL | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 55 | 24 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.3% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 3.5% | 4.28 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 146 | 622 | 131 | 64 | 24 | — | — | 21.0% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 3.8% | 3.88 | 4.69 | +1.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 146 | 615 | 131 | 64 | 24 | — | — | 21.3% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 3.8% | 3.88 | 4.72 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 17 | 17 | 104 | 439 | 97 | 45 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 3.7% | 4.82 | 4.96 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 16 | 16 | 96 | 406 | 86 | 44 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.2% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 4.0% | 5.06 | 5.21 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 14 | 14 | 88 | 373 | 76 | 42 | 16 | 100% | 6.3 | 20.4% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 4.2% | 5.32 | 5.49 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 16 | 16 | 99 | 418 | 92 | 43 | 15 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 3.7% | 4.82 | 4.96 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 15 | 15 | 91 | 384 | 82 | 41 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.2% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 4.0% | 5.06 | 5.21 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 14 | 14 | 84 | 355 | 72 | 40 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.4% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 4.2% | 5.32 | 5.49 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 122 | 101 | 603 | 2553 | 570 | 254 | 92 | 83% | 4.9 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 3.6% | 4.40 | 4.46 | +6.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 40 | 33 | 200 | 847 | 189 | 84 | 31 | 83% | 5.0 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 3.6% | 4.40 | 4.46 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 305 | 149 | 958 | 4171 | 843 | 426 | 132 | 49% | 3.1 | 20.2% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 4.30 | 4.42 | +11.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 31 | 200 | 871 | 176 | 89 | 28 | 49% | 3.1 | 20.2% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 4.30 | 4.42 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Grant Holmes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.19 | 26.0% | 9.6% | 3.1% | — | 5.21 | 21.3% | 10.5% | 288 | +1.02 | — | — | — |
| Mitch Atkins R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.37 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 1.9% | .341 | 4.49 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.12 | 3.37 | 205 | 71 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2024 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 68 |
| Michael Bowden R 2024 · 3.25 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.25 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 1.4% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 141 | 68 |
| Elian Leyva R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 68 |
| Tiago Da Silva R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.30 | 19.6% | 4.5% | 2.4% | .278 | 2.36 | 21.4% | 18.5% | 98 | -0.94 | 2.11 | 287 | 66 |
| Hector Noesí R 2024 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 66 |
| Burch Smith R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.94 | 22.6% | 12.3% | 2.2% | .271 | 4.11 | 14.9% | 9.0% | 43 | +0.17 | 3.39 | 382 | 65 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 65 |
| Jason Berken R 2027 · 4.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.69 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 3.5% | .315 | 4.31 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | -0.38 | 4.31 | 219 | 65 |
| Dillon Gee R 2026 · 5.07 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.07 | 16.2% | 6.2% | 4.7% | .302 | 3.88 | 18.0% | 12.1% | 127 | -1.19 | 3.62 | 380 | 64 |
| Yohan Pino R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 63 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.15 | 13.7% | 8.7% | 2.0% | .270 | 3.45 | 19.1% | 10.5% | 220 | -0.70 | 3.16 | 593 | 63 |
| Aaron Wilkerson R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.76 | 20.9% | 9.8% | 4.0% | .291 | 3.31 | 24.6% | 19.0% | 112 | -1.45 | 2.75 | 902 | 63 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2025 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 62 |
| Mike Bolsinger R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 327 | 62 |
| Daniel McCutchen R 2028 · 4.47 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.47 | 13.9% | 4.4% | 3.6% | .268 | 4.60 | 10.8% | 4.9% | 155 | +0.13 | 4.47 | 287 | 61 |
| Justin Masterson R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .307 | 3.76 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 196 | -0.30 | 3.51 | 269 | 61 |
| Kenta Maeda R 2026 · 3.02 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.02 | 28.8% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .312 | 3.64 | 27.4% | 20.7% | 327 | +0.62 | 2.86 | 1,092 | 61 |
| Jerome Williams R 2029 · 4.79 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 3.8% | .326 | 5.94 | 11.7% | 5.6% | 74 | +1.15 | 4.79 | 195 | 61 |
| Raynel Espinal R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.05 | 23.9% | 10.5% | 3.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.53 | 507 | 61 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 100 | 22.6% | 10.4% | 1.43 | 4.78 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| Triston McKenzie ('24) | 4 | 105 | 26.0% | 9.4% | 1.52 | 3.94 |
| Josiah Gray ('23) | 3 | 126 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 1.88 | 4.64 |
| Dan Straily ('19) | 4 | 136 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 1.72 | 4.54 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |