Matt Svanson — OGILVIE

Matt Svanson P St. Louis Cardinals

Age 27 RHP 6'5" / 235 lbs MLB peak 0.7 · 2026 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION64 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA3.23

FIP3.41

K%23.3%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%15.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD6060

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7796.4

Whiff%

p1018.8%

p3419.8%

xwOBA vs

p100.369

SI (45%)

CT (22%)

SL-1.3 (32%)

FB-3.6 (46%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	11	0	16	66	23	8	0	0%	1.4	25.8%	14.3%	11.5%	0.0%	2.30	2.73	—
2021	22	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	11	0	16	66	23	8	0	0%	1.4	34.8%	12.1%	22.7%	0.0%	2.30	1.70	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	9	82	348	83	23	10	32%	2.9	17.8%	7.8%	10.1%	4.0%	4.15	4.78	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	9	82	348	83	23	10	32%	2.9	23.9%	6.6%	17.2%	2.9%	4.15	3.50	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	41	0	53	212	64	15	0	0%	1.3	23.9%	8.5%	15.4%	0.0%	1.86	2.16	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	41	0	53	212	64	15	0	0%	1.3	23.9%	8.5%	15.4%	0.0%	1.86	2.16	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	41	0	53	212	64	15	0	0%	1.3	30.2%	7.1%	23.1%	0.0%	1.86	1.54	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	53	0	64	283	59	24	4	0%	1.2	16.9%	9.3%	7.6%	1.2%	2.69	3.53	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	53	0	64	283	59	24	4	0%	1.2	16.9%	9.3%	7.6%	1.2%	2.69	3.53	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	53	0	64	283	59	24	4	0%	1.2	20.8%	8.5%	12.4%	1.4%	2.69	3.19	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	82	332	90	29	4	0%	1.5	26.0%	8.5%	17.5%	1.4%	2.30	2.72	+1.8
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	82	332	90	29	4	0%	1.5	26.0%	8.5%	17.5%	1.4%	2.30	2.72	+1.8
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	82	332	90	29	4	0%	1.5	27.1%	8.7%	18.4%	1.2%	2.30	2.60	+1.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			80	1	104	441	109	41	8	1%	1.3	24.7%	9.3%	15.4%	1.8%	4.17	3.19	+1.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	60	1	64	291	66	26	5	2%	1.1	21.2%	8.8%	12.5%	1.8%	5.48	3.43	+0.9
YTD	27	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	60	1	64	291	66	26	5	2%	1.1	21.2%	8.8%	12.5%	1.8%	5.48	3.43	+0.9
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	STL	19	0	21	84	25	5	0	0%	1.1	29.8%	6.0%	23.8%	0.0%	1.74	1.34	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	STL	41	1	43	207	41	21	5	2%	1.1	19.8%	10.1%	9.7%	2.4%	7.27	4.04	+0.3
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	STL	41	1	43	207	41	21	5	2%	1.1	19.8%	10.1%	9.7%	2.4%	7.27	4.04	+0.3
ROS	27	MLB MLE	STL	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	23.3%	8.3%	15.0%	2.2%	3.23	3.41	+0.1
ROS	27	MLB CTX	STL	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	23.3%	8.3%	15.0%	2.2%	3.23	3.41	+0.1
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	70	316	72	28	6	—	—	22.7%	8.9%	13.8%	1.8%	5.30	3.43	+1.0
FULL	27	MLB A+C	STL	—	—	49	208	72	28	6	—	—	34.6%	13.5%	21.1%	2.7%	7.52	3.36	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	STL	67	0	70	296	68	26	7	0%	1.0	22.9%	8.9%	13.9%	2.4%	3.90	4.01	+0.5
2028	29	MLB MLE	STL	64	0	67	282	63	26	7	0%	1.0	22.3%	9.2%	13.1%	2.6%	4.06	4.17	+0.3
2029	30	MLB MLE	STL	60	0	63	265	57	25	7	0%	1.0	21.6%	9.5%	12.1%	2.8%	4.25	4.37	+0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	STL	63	0	66	279	64	25	7	0%	1.0	22.9%	8.9%	13.9%	2.4%	3.90	4.01	+0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	STL	60	0	63	266	59	24	7	0%	1.1	22.3%	9.2%	13.1%	2.6%	4.06	4.17	+0.3
2029	30	MLB CTX	STL	57	0	60	253	55	24	7	0%	1.1	21.6%	9.5%	12.1%	2.8%	4.25	4.37	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		266	1	299	1266	293	117	29	0%	1.1	23.1%	9.2%	13.9%	2.3%	4.08	3.58	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		178	1	200	847	196	78	19	0%	1.1	23.1%	9.2%	13.9%	2.3%	4.08	3.58	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		247	10	361	1532	326	134	27	4%	1.5	21.2%	8.8%	12.5%	1.8%	3.29	3.40	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		137	6	200	849	180	75	15	4%	1.5	21.2%	8.8%	12.5%	1.8%	3.29	3.40	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Svanson (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.61	25.2%	8.0%	2.3%	—	4.18	22.3%	13.1%	200	+0.57	—	—	—
Blake Treinen R 2015 · 3.10 FIP	27	SU	3.10	23.2%	9.3%	1.4%	.314	2.62	26.4%	19.2%	223	-0.48	1.53	547	87
Taylor Williams R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	24.2%	8.9%	2.4%	.309	4.35	22.5%	12.7%	108	+0.83	2.51	309	86
Luis García R 2015 · 3.23 FIP	28	SU	3.23	20.7%	9.5%	1.2%	.327	3.22	21.6%	12.8%	187	-0.01	2.33	617	85
Heath Hembree R 2016 · 3.74 FIP	27	SU	3.74	21.1%	7.2%	2.8%	.292	4.03	27.3%	18.8%	162	+0.29	2.58	382	84
Jaye Chapman R 2015 · 3.32 FIP	28	SU	3.32	21.6%	8.5%	1.8%	.276	4.08	20.3%	11.3%	85	+0.76	3.25	150	84
Austin Ross R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	27	SU	3.81	22.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.295	3.67	12.4%	5.2%	127	-0.14	3.16	269	84
José A. Váldez R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	27	SU	4.39	21.6%	8.3%	3.8%	.325	4.15	18.8%	6.4%	153	-0.24	4.02	328	84
Arquimedes Caminero R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	28	SU	3.54	23.0%	8.5%	2.4%	.265	4.45	17.9%	6.5%	61	+0.91	3.54	173	84
Seth Simmons R 2015 · 3.07 FIP	27	SU	3.07	23.8%	9.7%	1.4%	.277	4.87	16.6%	7.6%	175	+1.80	3.07	251	83
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	83
Blake Smith R 2015 · 3.17 FIP	27	SU	3.17	23.3%	10.5%	1.3%	.290	3.59	22.4%	13.8%	71	+0.42	3.17	124	83
Jhan Mariñez R 2016 · 3.16 FIP	27	SU	3.16	18.6%	6.7%	1.4%	.294	4.02	19.0%	10.6%	106	+0.86	3.16	253	83
Matt Ramsey R 2017 · 3.25 FIP	27	SU	3.25	24.2%	9.6%	1.8%	.330	3.21	23.6%	14.6%	81	-0.04	2.42	125	82
Will Vest R 2022 · 3.43 FIP	27	SU	3.43	23.2%	8.1%	2.3%	.309	2.92	25.3%	18.5%	200	-0.51	2.56	448	82
Scott Oberg R 2017 · 3.13 FIP	27	SU	3.13	20.8%	8.3%	1.3%	.359	2.82	25.1%	18.2%	130	-0.31	2.54	302	82
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	82
Blake Wood R 2015 · 2.92 FIP	29	SU	2.92	24.5%	10.5%	1.0%	.325	3.60	24.9%	14.9%	151	+0.68	2.92	210	82
Wil Browning R 2016 · 2.77 FIP	27	SU	2.77	23.8%	7.4%	1.3%	.292	4.44	17.9%	4.8%	58	+1.67	2.14	162	81
Austin Adams R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	18.6%	9.5%	1.4%	.331	3.40	21.1%	15.0%	56	-0.11	3.40	162	81
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	66	23.0%	8.9%	0.97	3.91
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Cory Gearrin ('19)	1.1	57	21.5%	9.8%	0.79	3.42
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19