Matt Svanson
P
St. Louis Cardinals
Age 27
RHP
6'5" / 235 lbs
MLB
peak 0.7 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION45 act + 33 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116107vR 97
ERA3.34
FIP3.53
K%23.6%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%14.8%
ROS IP33
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p8597.0
Whiff%
p1019.4%
K%
p4621.6%
xwOBA vs
p100.362
SI (45%)
CT (21%)
SL-1.3 (32%)
FB-3.6 (46%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 11 | 0 | 16 | 66 | 23 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 25.8% | 14.3% | 11.5% | 0.0% | 2.30 | 2.73 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 11 | 0 | 16 | 66 | 23 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 34.8% | 12.1% | 22.7% | 0.0% | 2.30 | 1.70 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 9 | 82 | 348 | 83 | 23 | 10 | 32% | 2.9 | 17.8% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 4.4% | 4.15 | 4.98 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 9 | 82 | 348 | 83 | 23 | 10 | 32% | 2.9 | 23.9% | 6.6% | 17.2% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 3.50 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 41 | 0 | 53 | 212 | 64 | 15 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.9% | 8.5% | 15.4% | 0.0% | 1.86 | 2.16 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 41 | 0 | 53 | 212 | 64 | 15 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 30.2% | 7.1% | 23.1% | 0.0% | 1.86 | 1.54 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 53 | 0 | 64 | 283 | 59 | 24 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 16.9% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 1.0% | 2.69 | 3.38 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 53 | 0 | 64 | 283 | 59 | 24 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.8% | 8.5% | 12.4% | 1.4% | 2.69 | 3.19 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 82 | 332 | 90 | 29 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 26.3% | 8.9% | 17.4% | 1.4% | 2.30 | 2.75 | +2.2 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 82 | 332 | 90 | 29 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 27.1% | 8.7% | 18.4% | 1.2% | 2.30 | 2.60 | +2.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 40 | 1 | 45 | 205 | 48 | 20 | 5 | 2% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 2.7% | 5.76 | 4.06 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | STL | 31 | 0 | 33 | 137 | 32 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 8.9% | 14.8% | 2.4% | 3.34 | 3.53 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | STL | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 33 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 8.9% | 14.8% | 2.4% | 3.34 | 3.53 | +0.4 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | STL | — | — | 78 | 342 | 80 | 32 | 8 | — | — | 23.5% | 9.4% | 14.1% | 2.4% | 4.75 | 3.84 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | STL | — | — | 72 | 305 | 80 | 32 | 8 | — | — | 26.4% | 10.6% | 15.8% | 2.7% | 5.12 | 3.69 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | STL | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 70 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 14.7% | 2.5% | 3.87 | 3.98 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | STL | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 65 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 13.9% | 2.6% | 4.03 | 4.14 | +0.4 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | STL | 63 | 0 | 66 | 279 | 66 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 14.7% | 2.5% | 3.87 | 3.98 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | STL | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 62 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 13.9% | 2.6% | 4.03 | 4.14 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 230 | 1 | 262 | 1105 | 269 | 102 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 9.2% | 15.2% | 2.3% | 3.81 | 3.46 | +6.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 175 | 1 | 200 | 842 | 205 | 78 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 9.2% | 15.2% | 2.3% | 3.81 | 3.46 | +4.5 | ||
| Career | — | 227 | 10 | 342 | 1446 | 309 | 131 | 28 | 4% | 1.5 | 21.4% | 9.1% | 12.3% | 1.9% | 3.21 | 3.51 | +7.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 133 | 6 | 200 | 845 | 181 | 77 | 16 | 4% | 1.5 | 21.4% | 9.1% | 12.3% | 1.9% | 3.21 | 3.51 | +4.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Svanson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.62 | 25.3% | 8.2% | 2.3% | — | 4.06 | 23.5% | 14.3% | 137 | +0.44 | — | — | — |
| Blake Treinen R 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.10 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 1.4% | .314 | 2.59 | 26.4% | 19.2% | 223 | -0.51 | 1.51 | 544 | 85 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.69 | 2.59 | 309 | 85 |
| Arquimedes Caminero R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 2.2% | .265 | 4.48 | 17.9% | 6.5% | 61 | +1.02 | 3.46 | 173 | 84 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.86 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.1% | .295 | 3.60 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.26 | 3.19 | 269 | 84 |
| Luis García R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.26 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 1.3% | .327 | 3.25 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 187 | -0.01 | 2.40 | 617 | 83 |
| Seth Simmons R 2026 · 3.06 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.06 | 23.8% | 9.7% | 1.4% | .277 | 4.93 | 16.6% | 7.6% | 175 | +1.87 | 3.06 | 251 | 83 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2027 · 3.36 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.36 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.03 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.27 | 150 | 83 |
| Blake Wood R 2028 · 3.05 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.05 | 24.5% | 10.5% | 1.3% | .325 | 3.66 | 24.9% | 14.9% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.05 | 210 | 82 |
| Heath Hembree R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.2% | 2.7% | .292 | 3.96 | 27.3% | 18.8% | 162 | +0.27 | 2.67 | 382 | 82 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 82 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.05 | 25.1% | 9.4% | 1.6% | .293 | 4.41 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 37 | +1.36 | 3.05 | 205 | 82 |
| Blake Smith R 2026 · 3.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.08 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 1.1% | .290 | 3.66 | 22.4% | 13.8% | 71 | +0.58 | 3.08 | 124 | 81 |
| José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.52 | 21.6% | 8.3% | 4.0% | .325 | 4.07 | 18.8% | 6.4% | 153 | -0.45 | 4.02 | 328 | 81 |
| Will Vest R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.49 | 23.2% | 8.1% | 2.4% | .309 | 3.01 | 25.4% | 18.4% | 200 | -0.48 | 2.58 | 448 | 81 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.04 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 1.4% | .330 | 3.26 | 23.6% | 14.6% | 81 | +0.22 | 2.42 | 125 | 81 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2027 · 3.31 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.31 | 24.5% | 7.9% | 2.3% | .302 | 3.78 | 22.8% | 13.6% | 168 | +0.47 | 1.74 | 468 | 81 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.23 | 18.6% | 6.7% | 1.6% | .294 | 4.07 | 19.0% | 10.6% | 106 | +0.84 | 3.23 | 253 | 80 |
| Curtis Partch R 2027 · 2.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.85 | 25.9% | 9.9% | 1.2% | .345 | 3.14 | 21.7% | 9.2% | 60 | +0.29 | 2.85 | 124 | 80 |
| Simon Castro R 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.16 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 2.2% | .320 | 3.55 | 26.0% | 17.6% | 128 | +0.39 | 2.85 | 185 | 80 |
| Wil Browning R 2026 · 2.63 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.63 | 23.8% | 7.4% | 1.1% | .292 | 4.58 | 17.9% | 4.8% | 58 | +1.95 | 2.12 | 162 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 70 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 0.95 | 3.77 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Sam Hentges ('24) | 4 | 52 | 25.4% | 8.4% | 0.78 | 4.18 |
| Juan Nicasio ('19) | 5 | 68 | 25.5% | 8.4% | 0.83 | 4.21 |