Matt Svanson
P
St. Louis Cardinals
+1.2
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'5" / 235 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.1 · 2026
ERA2.97
FIP3.66
xFIP5.92
SIERA5.45
K%24.7%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%15.7%
IP73
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.1peak
2026
K†6060
FB Velo
p7095.9
Whiff%
p1016.5%
K%
p1016.4%
xwOBA vs
p100.425
SI (50%)
CT (23%)
SL-1.3 (28%)
FB-3.6 (50%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 11 | 0 | 16 | 66 | 23 | 8 | 0 | 25.8% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 2.30 | 2.73 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 28 | 9 | 82 | 348 | 83 | 23 | 10 | 17.8% | 7.8% | 4.1% | 4.15 | 4.82 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 41 | 0 | 53 | 212 | 64 | 15 | 0 | 23.9% | 8.5% | 0.0% | 1.86 | 2.16 | +1.7 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 53 | 0 | 64 | 283 | 59 | 24 | 4 | 16.9% | 9.3% | 1.2% | 2.69 | 3.52 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 54 | 0 | 82 | 332 | 90 | 29 | 4 | 26.3% | 8.9% | 1.4% | 2.30 | 2.75 | +2.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 8 | 0 | 10 | 53 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 17.0% | 11.3% | 5.7% | 13.97 | 6.21 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 64 | 269 | 65 | 25 | 7 | 24.1% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 2.76 | 3.66 | +1.0 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | STL | — | — | 73 | 322 | 74 | 31 | 10 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 4.24 | 3.99 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | STL | 13 | 13 | 72 | 305 | 72 | 28 | 8 | 23.7% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 3.79 | 4.16 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | STL | 13 | 13 | 71 | 298 | 69 | 28 | 8 | 23.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 4.07 | 4.25 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 68 | 289 | 66 | 27 | 8 | 22.7% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 4.23 | 4.34 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 66 | 279 | 62 | 27 | 8 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.45 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 64 | 268 | 58 | 26 | 8 | 21.5% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.48 | 4.56 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 61 | 256 | 53 | 25 | 8 | 20.8% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.61 | 4.69 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | STL | 58 | — | 58 | 243 | 49 | 25 | 8 | 20.1% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.74 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | STL | 54 | — | 54 | 229 | 44 | 24 | 8 | 19.4% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.88 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | STL | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 40 | 23 | 7 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 3.4% | 5.04 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 195 | 9 | 307 | 1294 | 274 | 116 | 25 | 21.2% | 9.0% | 1.9% | 3.17 | 3.52 | +6.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 127 | 6 | 200 | 844 | 179 | 76 | 16 | 21.2% | 9.0% | 1.9% | 3.17 | 3.52 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Svanson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.75 | 25.6% | 8.9% | 2.4% | — | 4.25 | 23.2% | 13.8% | 211 | +0.50 | — | — | — |
| Luis García R 2027 · 3.21 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.21 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 1.2% | .327 | 3.19 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 187 | -0.02 | 2.26 | 602 | 85 |
| Blake Treinen R 2026 · 3.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.02 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 1.3% | .314 | 2.56 | 26.4% | 19.2% | 223 | -0.46 | 1.54 | 521 | 85 |
| Anthony Bass R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.57 | 16.5% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .300 | 3.43 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 123 | -0.14 | 2.83 | 432 | 84 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2027 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.73 | 3.25 | 150 | 84 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.18 | 18.6% | 6.7% | 1.5% | .294 | 4.05 | 19.0% | 10.6% | 106 | +0.87 | 3.18 | 253 | 84 |
| Heath Hembree R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.2% | 2.7% | .292 | 4.09 | 27.3% | 18.8% | 162 | +0.40 | 2.67 | 382 | 84 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.72 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.05 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.33 | 3.70 | 147 | 83 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.48 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.85 | 2.36 | 309 | 83 |
| José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.55 | 21.6% | 8.3% | 4.0% | .325 | 4.15 | 18.8% | 6.4% | 153 | -0.40 | 4.02 | 328 | 83 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.80 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .295 | 3.70 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.10 | 3.17 | 269 | 83 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.91 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .348 | 3.55 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.36 | 2.38 | 160 | 83 |
| Bo Schultz R 2028 · 4.20 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.20 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .218 | 3.50 | 15.1% | 8.9% | 77 | -0.70 | 2.73 | 141 | 83 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 82 |
| Arquimedes Caminero R 2027 · 3.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.38 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 2.1% | .265 | 4.49 | 17.9% | 6.5% | 61 | +1.11 | 3.38 | 173 | 82 |
| Conor Mullee R 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.28 | 17.7% | 7.2% | 1.4% | .290 | 2.64 | 24.2% | 16.3% | 55 | -0.64 | 2.17 | 110 | 82 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.75 | 17.6% | 6.3% | 2.4% | .246 | 3.68 | 22.7% | 14.4% | 97 | -0.07 | 3.25 | 160 | 82 |
| Pedro Beato R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.46 | 17.4% | 7.5% | 1.6% | .276 | 3.94 | 19.0% | 11.2% | 192 | +0.48 | 3.46 | 295 | 81 |
| Scott Oberg R 2026 · 3.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.13 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 1.3% | .359 | 2.84 | 25.1% | 18.2% | 130 | -0.29 | 2.59 | 302 | 81 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2027 · 3.35 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.35 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 1.8% | .359 | 5.13 | 12.8% | 2.8% | 47 | +1.78 | 3.35 | 108 | 81 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.50 | 20.3% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .241 | 3.22 | 20.8% | 14.2% | 43 | -0.28 | 2.49 | 131 | 81 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 0.674 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2031
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.1 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.4M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $3M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $3M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $7M | $20M | +$12M | ||