Luis Morales

P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2029

Overview

AAARP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	A+OAK	22	22	81	4.22	3.64	24.9%	10.7%	—	K 19.1% · BB 12.2% · FIP 4.91
2025	22	MIX3 levels	33	23	138	3.52	3.77	26.5%	9.4%	2.7	K 23.4% · BB 9.3% · FIP 4.06
2026	23	MIX2 levels	35	14	87	8.76	6.59	19.8%	14.6%	-2.0	K 17.5% · BB 13.5% · FIP 6.26
2027PROJ	24	MLBOAK	12	12	70	5.25	5.42	22.2%	12.1%	-0.0
2028PROJ87% MLB	25	MLBOAK	13	13	77	5.13	5.13	23.1%	11.0%	0.2
2029PROJ91% MLB	26	MLBOAK	13	13	80	5.04	5.01	23.6%	10.8%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo88

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsRay Gaither (age 24) · Jake Lee (age 24) · Alfredo Figaro (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.25

FIP5.42

K%22.2%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%10.1%

Proj IP87

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 87 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8897.2

Whiff%

p1018.5%

p1014.4%

xwOBA vs

p100.407

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	13	44	180	53	15	2	93%	3.1	21.4%	9.8%	11.6%	0.0%	2.86	2.53	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	13	44	180	53	15	2	93%	3.1	29.4%	8.3%	21.1%	1.1%	2.86	2.30	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	22	22	81	338	84	36	8	100%	3.7	19.1%	12.2%	6.9%	3.4%	4.22	4.91	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	22	22	81	338	84	36	8	100%	3.7	19.1%	12.2%	6.9%	3.4%	4.22	4.91	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	22	22	81	338	84	36	8	100%	3.7	24.9%	10.7%	14.2%	2.4%	4.22	3.64	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	23	138	565	150	53	18	70%	4.2	23.4%	9.3%	14.1%	3.2%	3.52	4.06	+2.2
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	23	138	565	150	53	18	70%	4.2	23.4%	9.3%	14.1%	3.2%	3.52	4.06	+2.2
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	33	23	138	565	150	53	18	70%	4.2	26.5%	9.4%	17.2%	3.2%	3.52	3.77	+2.7
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	14	87	444	88	65	22	40%	2.5	17.5%	13.5%	4.0%	5.3%	8.76	6.26	-1.7
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	14	87	444	88	65	22	40%	2.5	17.5%	13.5%	4.0%	5.3%	8.76	6.26	-1.7
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	14	87	444	88	65	22	40%	2.5	19.8%	14.6%	5.2%	5.0%	8.76	6.59	-2.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			15	11	65	289	56	32	15	73%	4.3	19.4%	11.1%	8.3%	5.2%	5.71	5.87	-0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	OAK	12	12	70	296	66	36	12	100%	5.8	22.2%	12.1%	10.1%	4.1%	5.25	5.42	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	OAK	15	15	88	374	86	41	15	100%	5.9	23.1%	11.0%	12.1%	4.0%	5.13	5.13	+0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	OAK	15	15	88	374	88	40	15	100%	5.9	23.6%	10.8%	12.8%	3.9%	5.04	5.01	+0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	OAK	12	12	71	301	71	32	12	100%	6.0	23.5%	10.7%	12.8%	3.9%	5.01	5.01	+0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	OAK	11	11	66	277	65	30	11	100%	6.0	23.3%	10.8%	12.6%	4.0%	5.05	5.08	+0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	OAK	9	9	55	233	53	26	10	100%	6.1	22.7%	11.0%	11.8%	4.2%	5.16	5.24	+0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	OAK	7	7	44	184	40	21	8	100%	6.2	22.0%	11.3%	10.8%	4.4%	5.33	5.45	-0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	OAK	13	13	77	325	75	36	13	100%	5.9	23.1%	11.0%	12.1%	4.0%	5.13	5.13	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	OAK	13	13	80	338	80	36	13	100%	6.2	23.6%	10.8%	12.8%	3.9%	5.04	5.01	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	OAK	11	11	66	279	65	30	11	100%	6.0	23.5%	10.7%	12.8%	3.9%	5.01	5.01	+0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	OAK	10	10	61	258	60	28	10	100%	6.1	23.3%	10.8%	12.6%	4.0%	5.05	5.08	+0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	OAK	9	9	53	224	51	25	9	100%	5.9	22.7%	11.0%	11.8%	4.2%	5.16	5.24	+0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	OAK	7	7	41	173	38	20	8	100%	5.9	22.0%	11.3%	10.8%	4.4%	5.33	5.45	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		78	74	443	1887	426	206	80	95%	5.7	22.6%	10.9%	11.7%	4.2%	5.19	4.90	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	34	200	852	192	93	36	95%	5.7	22.6%	10.9%	11.7%	4.2%	5.19	4.90	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		104	72	350	1527	313	171	53	69%	3.4	20.5%	11.2%	9.3%	3.5%	4.91	4.71	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	41	200	872	179	98	30	69%	3.4	20.5%	11.2%	9.3%	3.5%	4.91	4.71	+0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 71 IPFIP 5.46 → 5.76 (+0.30)K% 21.2% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.19%	—	×0.860	18.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.41%	—	×0.900	12.97%
HR / BF /BF	4.24%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.66%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.46 → 5.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 47 IPFIP 4.01 → 4.07 (+0.06)K% 27.1% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.14%	—	×0.860	23.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.05%	—	×0.900	9.05%
HR / BF /BF	3.52%	÷1.183	×1.100	3.27%

Result: FIP 4.01 → 4.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAMidland RockHounds · 42 IPFIP 2.54 → 3.32 (+0.77)K% 31.7% → 25.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.74%	—	×0.810	25.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.98%	—	×1.100	9.88%
HR / BF /BF	1.80%	÷1.043	×1.200	2.07%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 109).

Result: FIP 2.54 → 3.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 81 IPFIP 3.65 → 4.91 (+1.26)K% 24.9% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.85%	—	×0.770	19.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.65%	—	×1.150	12.25%
HR / BF /BF	2.37%	÷0.867	×1.250	3.41%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 73).

Result: FIP 3.65 → 4.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Athletics · 20 IPFIP 0.86 → 1.94 (+1.08)K% 34.2% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.18%	—	×0.680	23.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.06%	—	×1.250	6.33%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.989	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 0.86 → 1.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AStockton Ports · 16 IPFIP 2.37 → 3.20 (+0.84)K% 26.1% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.09%	—	×0.740	19.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.59%	—	×1.180	13.68%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.945	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 2.37 → 3.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 8 IPFIP 5.61 → 6.39 (+0.78)K% 25.0% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.770	19.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.38%	—	×1.150	10.78%
HR / BF /BF	6.25%	÷1.209	×1.250	6.46%

Result: FIP 5.61 → 6.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Morales (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	4.1%	—	5.05	23.4%	12.6%	248	-0.37	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	82
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	78
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	78
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	77
Michael Knorr R 2024 · 5.56 FIP	24	SP-	5.56	21.6%	12.5%	4.9%	.314	4.95	22.3%	9.7%	83	-0.61	4.30	181	76
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	75
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	75
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	74
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	74
Burch Smith R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	23	SP-	5.18	27.5%	12.0%	5.3%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	418	74
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	73
Jacob Wosinski R 2023 · 6.31 FIP	24	SP-	6.31	17.7%	12.4%	5.7%	.351	4.73	16.8%	5.2%	148	-1.58	3.89	181	73
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	73
Daniel Corcino R 2014 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	18.8%	12.5%	2.3%	.208	4.14	19.6%	10.0%	76	-0.23	3.84	318	73
Carson Rudd R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	21.0%	13.0%	4.7%	.274	4.61	17.5%	-0.1%	110	-0.92	3.39	242	72
Rafael Montero R 2014 · 5.04 FIP	23	SP-	5.04	21.6%	11.9%	4.1%	.298	4.32	19.3%	8.2%	296	-0.72	2.43	714	72
Keagan Gillies R 2022 · 5.68 FIP	24	SP-	5.68	17.2%	11.3%	4.7%	.370	3.54	23.5%	13.9%	142	-2.14	2.93	177	72
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	71
Conor Grammes R 2021 · 5.74 FIP	24	SP	5.74	20.4%	11.4%	5.3%	.417	4.35	22.9%	4.9%	124	-1.39	4.11	171	71
Greyfer Eregua R 2017 · 4.87 FIP	23	SP-	4.87	18.3%	9.3%	3.9%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	126	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	71	22.6%	11.1%	1.63	5.19
Rich DeLucia ('90-'99, 1 WAR*)	3.1	78	23.2%*	10.5%*	1.55*	4.65*
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
Vicente Palacios ('87-'00, 1 WAR*)	1.9	62	21.0%*	10.0%*	1.41*	4.86*
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Robert Stephenson ('25)	1.9	62	25.9%	10.1%	1.54	4.59
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62