Luis Morales — OGILVIE

Luis Morales P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs AAA Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.0 · 2029 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION84 act + 9 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.29

FIP4.42

K%22.5%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%12.3%

ROS IP9

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 92 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$15M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF5560

CTRL4550

CMD4050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8897.2

Whiff%

p1018.5%

p1014.4%

xwOBA vs

p100.407

SI (11%)

CH (9%)

SL-2.2 (34%)

FB-4.8 (57%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-1	$4M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-2	$7M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-3	$10M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	13	44	180	53	15	2	93%	3.1	21.4%	9.8%	11.6%	0.0%	2.86	2.53	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	13	44	180	53	15	2	93%	3.1	21.4%	9.8%	11.6%	0.0%	2.86	2.53	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	13	44	180	53	15	2	93%	3.1	29.4%	8.3%	21.1%	1.1%	2.86	2.30	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	22	22	81	338	84	36	8	100%	3.7	19.1%	12.2%	6.9%	3.4%	4.22	4.91	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	22	22	81	338	84	36	8	100%	3.7	19.1%	12.2%	6.9%	3.4%	4.22	4.91	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	22	22	81	338	84	36	8	100%	3.7	24.9%	10.7%	14.2%	2.4%	4.22	3.64	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	23	138	565	150	53	18	70%	4.2	23.1%	9.3%	13.8%	3.2%	3.52	4.09	+1.3
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	23	138	565	150	53	18	70%	4.2	23.1%	9.3%	13.8%	3.2%	3.52	4.09	+1.3
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	33	23	138	565	150	53	18	70%	4.2	26.5%	9.4%	17.2%	3.2%	3.52	3.77	+1.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			15	11	65	289	56	32	15	73%	4.3	19.4%	11.1%	8.3%	5.2%	5.71	5.87	-0.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Athletics	33	14	84	426	81	61	22	42%	2.5	16.3%	13.2%	3.1%	5.6%	9.14	6.45	—
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Athletics	33	14	84	426	81	61	22	42%	2.5	16.3%	13.2%	3.1%	5.6%	9.14	6.45	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AAA RAW	OAK	28	12	68	336	68	47	15	43%	2.4	20.2%	14.0%	6.2%	4.5%	8.11	5.61	—
2026	23	MLB RAW	OAK	5	2	16	90	13	14	7	40%	3.2	14.4%	15.6%	-1.1%	7.8%	13.50	8.12	-0.6
SO FAR	23	MLB RAW	OAK	5	2	16	90	13	14	7	40%	3.2	14.4%	15.6%	-1.1%	7.8%	13.50	8.12	-0.6
ROS	23	MLB MLE	OAK	8	0	9	37	8	4	1	0%	1.1	22.5%	10.3%	12.3%	3.5%	4.29	4.42	+0.0
ROS	23	MLB CTX	OAK	9	0	9	38	9	4	1	0%	1.0	22.5%	10.3%	12.3%	3.4%	4.24	4.37	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	OAK	—	—	92	463	89	65	23	—	—	19.3%	14.0%	5.3%	5.0%	8.69	6.26	-1.4
FULL	23	MLB A+C	OAK	—	—	25	104	89	65	23	—	—	85.6%	62.1%	23.5%	22.3%	32.47	15.98	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	OAK	27	27	153	647	151	65	26	100%	5.7	23.3%	10.1%	13.3%	4.0%	4.97	4.95	-0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	OAK	30	30	173	731	175	70	28	100%	5.8	23.9%	9.6%	14.3%	3.9%	4.84	4.79	+0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	OAK	29	29	175	739	179	70	28	100%	6.0	24.2%	9.4%	14.8%	3.8%	4.77	4.73	+0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	OAK	29	29	172	728	175	69	28	100%	5.9	24.1%	9.5%	14.7%	3.9%	4.76	4.76	+0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	OAK	29	29	172	728	175	70	29	100%	5.9	24.0%	9.6%	14.4%	4.0%	4.81	4.84	+0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	OAK	27	27	165	695	163	68	29	100%	6.1	23.4%	9.8%	13.6%	4.1%	4.92	5.00	-0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	OAK	26	26	155	653	148	66	28	100%	5.9	22.7%	10.1%	12.6%	4.3%	5.09	5.21	-0.5
2027	24	MLB CTX	OAK	26	26	146	616	144	62	24	100%	5.6	23.3%	10.1%	13.3%	3.9%	4.92	4.90	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	OAK	28	28	165	697	167	67	26	100%	5.9	23.9%	9.6%	14.3%	3.8%	4.79	4.74	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	OAK	28	28	166	701	169	66	26	100%	5.9	24.2%	9.4%	14.8%	3.7%	4.72	4.68	+0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	OAK	27	27	164	692	167	66	26	100%	6.1	24.1%	9.5%	14.7%	3.8%	4.71	4.71	+0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	OAK	27	27	164	692	166	67	27	100%	6.1	24.0%	9.6%	14.4%	3.9%	4.76	4.79	+0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	OAK	26	26	156	659	154	65	26	100%	6.0	23.4%	9.8%	13.6%	4.0%	4.86	4.94	-0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	OAK	24	24	147	621	141	63	26	100%	6.1	22.7%	10.1%	12.6%	4.2%	5.03	5.15	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		210	198	1181	5001	1171	490	197	94%	5.6	23.4%	9.8%	13.6%	3.9%	4.86	4.53	+5.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	34	200	847	198	83	33	94%	5.6	23.4%	9.8%	13.6%	3.9%	4.86	4.53	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		102	72	347	1509	303	168	53	71%	3.4	20.1%	11.1%	9.0%	3.5%	4.96	4.75	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	42	200	871	175	97	31	71%	3.4	20.1%	11.1%	9.0%	3.5%	4.96	4.75	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Morales (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.51	24.7%	9.7%	3.4%	—	4.82	23.8%	14.2%	502	+0.31	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	82
Ben Casparius R 2022 · 5.29 FIP	23	SP-	5.29	20.6%	13.2%	4.1%	.306	4.39	21.4%	10.8%	274	-0.90	3.36	374	81
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	81
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	80
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	79
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	79
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	78
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	77
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	77
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	77
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	77
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	77
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	76
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	75
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	75
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	75
Greyfer Eregua R 2017 · 4.87 FIP	23	SP-	4.87	18.3%	9.3%	3.9%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	126	75
Devereaux Harrison R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	17.6%	11.3%	3.6%	.252	4.76	16.6%	4.4%	294	-0.28	4.43	388	75
J.C. Flowers R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP-	3.59	21.3%	8.7%	2.1%	.330	4.86	16.2%	2.6%	184	+1.27	3.59	281	75
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.3	158	23.8%	9.7%	1.52	4.84
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68