Luis Morales
P
Las Vegas Aviators
Age 23
RHP
6'3" / 200 lbs
AAA
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 1.0 · 2029
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION58 act + 60 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.25
FIP4.40
K%24.0%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%13.3%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 118 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SI (17%)
CH (12%)
SL-2.2 (30%)
FB-4.8 (58%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 3 levels | 14 | 13 | 44 | 180 | 53 | 15 | 2 | 93% | 3.1 | 21.4% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 0.0% | 2.86 | 2.53 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 3 levels | 14 | 13 | 44 | 180 | 53 | 15 | 2 | 93% | 3.1 | 29.4% | 8.3% | 21.1% | 1.1% | 2.86 | 2.30 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 22 | 22 | 81 | 338 | 84 | 36 | 8 | 100% | 3.7 | 19.1% | 12.2% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 4.22 | 5.25 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 22 | 22 | 81 | 338 | 84 | 36 | 8 | 100% | 3.7 | 24.9% | 10.7% | 14.2% | 2.4% | 4.22 | 3.64 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 33 | 23 | 138 | 565 | 150 | 53 | 18 | 70% | 4.2 | 23.6% | 9.8% | 13.8% | 3.1% | 3.52 | 4.03 | +2.2 |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 33 | 23 | 138 | 565 | 150 | 53 | 18 | 70% | 4.2 | 26.5% | 9.4% | 17.2% | 3.2% | 3.52 | 3.77 | +2.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | Athletics | 21 | 10 | 58 | 292 | 58 | 42 | 15 | 48% | 2.8 | 17.8% | 14.9% | 2.9% | 5.5% | 8.22 | 6.49 | -1.3 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | OAK | 57 | 0 | 60 | 254 | 61 | 27 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 10.7% | 13.3% | 3.6% | 4.25 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | OAK | 57 | 0 | 60 | 253 | 61 | 27 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 10.7% | 13.3% | 3.5% | 4.20 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 118 | 546 | 119 | 69 | 24 | — | — | 21.8% | 12.7% | 9.1% | 4.4% | 6.20 | 5.43 | -0.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 69 | 293 | 119 | 69 | 24 | — | — | 40.6% | 23.6% | 17.0% | 8.1% | 10.51 | 7.14 | -1.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | OAK | 24 | 24 | 132 | 556 | 135 | 60 | 21 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.3% | 10.8% | 13.5% | 3.9% | 4.93 | 4.91 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 26 | 26 | 151 | 639 | 159 | 65 | 24 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.8% | 10.1% | 14.7% | 3.8% | 4.80 | 4.74 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 27 | 27 | 163 | 690 | 173 | 69 | 26 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.1% | 10.0% | 15.1% | 3.7% | 4.72 | 4.68 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 27 | 27 | 165 | 696 | 174 | 69 | 26 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.0% | 10.0% | 15.0% | 3.8% | 4.71 | 4.71 | +1.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 27 | 27 | 165 | 696 | 173 | 70 | 27 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.9% | 10.1% | 14.7% | 3.9% | 4.76 | 4.79 | +1.2 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 26 | 26 | 158 | 665 | 161 | 69 | 27 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.3% | 10.3% | 13.9% | 4.0% | 4.87 | 4.95 | +0.8 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 25 | 25 | 148 | 625 | 147 | 67 | 26 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.6% | 10.7% | 12.9% | 4.2% | 5.04 | 5.16 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 23 | 23 | 138 | 583 | 133 | 64 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.8% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 4.4% | 5.25 | 5.39 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | OAK | 22 | 22 | 125 | 528 | 128 | 57 | 20 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.3% | 10.8% | 13.5% | 3.8% | 4.88 | 4.86 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 25 | 25 | 144 | 608 | 151 | 61 | 22 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.8% | 10.1% | 14.7% | 3.7% | 4.75 | 4.69 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 26 | 26 | 155 | 654 | 164 | 65 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.1% | 10.0% | 15.1% | 3.7% | 4.67 | 4.63 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 26 | 26 | 157 | 663 | 166 | 66 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.0% | 10.0% | 15.0% | 3.7% | 4.66 | 4.66 | +1.4 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 26 | 26 | 157 | 663 | 165 | 67 | 25 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.9% | 10.1% | 14.7% | 3.8% | 4.71 | 4.74 | +1.2 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 25 | 25 | 150 | 633 | 154 | 66 | 25 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.3% | 10.3% | 13.9% | 3.9% | 4.82 | 4.90 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 24 | 24 | 141 | 595 | 140 | 63 | 25 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.6% | 10.7% | 12.9% | 4.1% | 4.99 | 5.11 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 22 | 22 | 131 | 553 | 126 | 61 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.8% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 4.3% | 5.20 | 5.34 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 265 | 206 | 1277 | 5401 | 1303 | 563 | 211 | 78% | 4.8 | 24.1% | 10.4% | 13.7% | 3.9% | 4.80 | 4.53 | +13.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 32 | 200 | 846 | 204 | 88 | 33 | 78% | 4.8 | 24.1% | 10.4% | 13.7% | 3.9% | 4.80 | 4.53 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 90 | 68 | 321 | 1375 | 289 | 158 | 47 | 76% | 3.6 | 21.0% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 4.46 | 4.66 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 42 | 200 | 857 | 180 | 98 | 29 | 76% | 3.6 | 21.0% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 4.46 | 4.66 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Morales (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.53 | 25.2% | 10.3% | 3.4% | — | 4.77 | 24.7% | 14.5% | 447 | +0.24 | — | — | — |
| Ray Gaither R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 82 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 82 |
| Michael Knorr R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 81 |
| Grant Judkins R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.40 | 21.0% | 11.2% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.85 | 16.4% | 5.4% | 150 | +0.45 | 5.40 | 322 | 81 |
| Ben Casparius R 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.20 | 20.6% | 13.2% | 4.0% | .306 | 4.44 | 21.7% | 10.6% | 274 | -0.76 | 3.49 | 364 | 81 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 78 |
| Roki Sasaki R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.27 | 17.5% | 13.9% | 3.4% | .253 | 5.33 | 22.7% | 13.3% | 81 | +0.06 | 5.27 | 138 | 78 |
| Casey Legumina R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 77 |
| Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.94 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .269 | 4.98 | 17.4% | 3.3% | 197 | +0.04 | 4.60 | 529 | 76 |
| Ricky Castro R 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 76 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 76 |
| River Ryan R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.58 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.1% | .321 | 3.86 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 134 | +0.28 | 2.13 | 218 | 76 |
| Chase Silseth R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.91 | 24.4% | 11.5% | 2.6% | .264 | 4.53 | 21.4% | 7.6% | 103 | +0.62 | 3.26 | 313 | 76 |
| Nick Fraze R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.68 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 4.1% | .271 | 4.64 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 162 | -0.04 | 3.81 | 278 | 76 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 76 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 75 |
| Drew Rasmussen R 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.62 | 24.6% | 12.6% | 1.8% | .312 | 3.26 | 22.7% | 16.2% | 237 | -0.36 | 1.21 | 621 | 75 |
| Dean Deetz R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 22.2% | 13.7% | 2.5% | .298 | 4.84 | 29.1% | 10.7% | 68 | +0.50 | 2.64 | 281 | 75 |
| Blair Henley R 2027 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 20.8% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .450 | 4.58 | 17.9% | 4.8% | 170 | -0.22 | 3.80 | 187 | 75 |
| Sam Benschoter R 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.96 | 26.3% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .344 | 5.03 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 306 | +1.07 | 3.58 | 426 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 9 | 143 | 24.4% | 10.3% | 1.52 | 4.85 |
| Vince Velasquez ('23) | 9 | 85 | 24.9% | 9.3% | 1.48 | 4.88 |
| Drew Smyly ('24) | 8 | 102 | 23.1% | 8.0% | 1.72 | 4.58 |
| Chad Kuhl ('24) | 8 | 84 | 20.0% | 10.4% | 1.31 | 4.98 |
| Aníbal Sánchez ('22) | 7 | 120 | 20.4% | 7.8% | 1.56 | 4.80 |
| Dylan Bundy ('22) | 7 | 130 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 1.61 | 4.75 |
| Héctor Santiago ('21) | 6 | 99 | 20.3% | 10.5% | 1.56 | 4.48 |