Luis Morales
P
Athletics
+0.4
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 23
RHP
6'3" / 200 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 1.1 · 2029
ERA4.02
FIP4.61
xFIP8.28
SIERA7.20
K%22.8%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%13.0%
IP121
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.1peak
2029
K†6060
FB Velo
p8897.2
Whiff%
p3723.5%
K%
p4621.6%
xwOBA vs
p390.325
SI (17%)
CH (13%)
SL-2.2 (30%)
FB-4.8 (57%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 20 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 14 | 13 | 44 | 180 | 53 | 15 | 2 | 21.4% | 9.8% | 0.0% | 2.86 | 2.53 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 22 | 22 | 81 | 338 | 84 | 36 | 8 | 19.1% | 12.2% | 3.5% | 4.22 | 4.94 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 22 | MLB | Athletics | 33 | 23 | 138 | 565 | 150 | 53 | 18 | 23.6% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 3.52 | 4.16 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | Athletics | 3 | 3 | 10 | 58 | 7 | 11 | 5 | — | — | — | 13.50 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | OAK | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 43 | 17 | 6 | 24.7% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 4.05 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 51 | 232 | 50 | 28 | 11 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 4.8% | 5.89 | 3.67 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | OAK | 26 | 26 | 140 | 593 | 136 | 59 | 23 | 22.9% | 9.9% | 3.8% | 4.76 | 4.91 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 28 | 28 | 154 | 651 | 151 | 61 | 24 | 23.2% | 9.4% | 3.8% | 4.75 | 4.77 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 29 | 29 | 161 | 681 | 159 | 63 | 25 | 23.4% | 9.3% | 3.7% | 4.72 | 4.72 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 30 | 30 | 164 | 692 | 162 | 64 | 26 | 23.4% | 9.3% | 3.7% | 4.72 | 4.72 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 30 | 30 | 164 | 690 | 161 | 64 | 26 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.8% | 4.74 | 4.75 | +1.0 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 29 | 29 | 160 | 675 | 154 | 63 | 26 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 3.8% | 4.79 | 4.82 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 28 | 28 | 155 | 654 | 146 | 62 | 25 | 22.3% | 9.5% | 3.9% | 4.87 | 4.92 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 27 | 27 | 150 | 632 | 137 | 61 | 25 | 21.7% | 9.6% | 3.9% | 4.96 | 5.02 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 26 | 26 | 144 | 606 | 128 | 59 | 24 | 21.1% | 9.8% | 4.0% | 5.06 | 5.13 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 25 | 25 | 137 | 579 | 118 | 58 | 24 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 4.1% | 5.18 | 5.26 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 24 | 24 | 130 | 550 | 108 | 56 | 23 | 19.7% | 10.1% | 4.2% | 5.31 | 5.40 | -0.1 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 22 | 22 | 123 | 518 | 98 | 54 | 22 | 19.0% | 10.4% | 4.3% | 5.46 | 5.55 | -0.3 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | OAK | 21 | 21 | 115 | 484 | 88 | 51 | 21 | 18.2% | 10.6% | 4.4% | 5.61 | 5.72 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 72 | 61 | 273 | 1141 | 244 | 125 | 35 | 21.4% | 11.0% | 3.1% | 3.99 | 4.39 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 45 | 200 | 836 | 179 | 92 | 26 | 21.4% | 11.0% | 3.1% | 3.99 | 4.39 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Morales (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.56 | 24.7% | 9.8% | 3.5% | — | 4.80 | 23.2% | 13.7% | 456 | +0.24 | — | — | — |
| Kade Strowd R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.93 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 4.1% | .383 | 4.67 | 24.1% | 10.4% | 111 | -0.26 | 3.23 | 210 | 84 |
| Bryce Jarvis R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.93 | 21.2% | 11.0% | 4.0% | .276 | 5.14 | 18.0% | 6.0% | 296 | +0.21 | 4.24 | 469 | 83 |
| Ray Gaither R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.86 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.5% | .314 | 4.51 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.35 | 4.05 | 164 | 83 |
| Todd Peterson R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.15 | 18.4% | 10.3% | 4.2% | .279 | 4.82 | 15.0% | 4.3% | 124 | -0.33 | 4.45 | 175 | 83 |
| Justin Evans R 2027 · 5.35 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.35 | 19.2% | 11.2% | 4.5% | .333 | 3.90 | 22.0% | 5.5% | 65 | -1.45 | 3.64 | 105 | 83 |
| TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.90 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 3.4% | .311 | 4.99 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 296 | +0.09 | 3.35 | 394 | 82 |
| Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.30 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -0.86 | 2.92 | 367 | 82 |
| Bruce Rondón R 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.79 | 23.5% | 11.8% | 2.1% | .336 | 3.35 | 26.7% | 14.0% | 140 | -0.44 | 3.30 | 184 | 82 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2027 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .261 | 3.88 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 114 | -0.55 | 3.82 | 142 | 82 |
| Cre Finfrock R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.69 | 23.0% | 11.7% | 3.7% | .278 | 6.32 | 16.7% | -8.5% | 36 | +1.63 | 4.27 | 103 | 82 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 3.00 | 24.2% | 12.6% | 70 | -1.56 | 2.12 | 117 | 82 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.48 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.10 | 4.15 | 338 | 81 |
| Troy Taylor R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.69 | 22.8% | 14.6% | 3.0% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 130 | 81 |
| Luis Eusebio R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.92 | 18.2% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.79 | 131 | 81 |
| Gus Varland R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.26 | 19.6% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .294 | 5.73 | 18.1% | 5.7% | 105 | +1.47 | 2.40 | 272 | 81 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.31 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.2% | .245 | 4.11 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.20 | 4.01 | 142 | 81 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.62 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.8% | .233 | 3.64 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 120 | -0.98 | 3.54 | 156 | 81 |
| Grant Judkins R 2026 · 5.71 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.71 | 21.0% | 11.2% | 5.4% | .346 | 5.64 | 16.4% | 5.4% | 150 | -0.07 | 5.17 | 322 | 81 |
| Hayden Snelsire R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.15 | 18.9% | 13.8% | 3.5% | .272 | 3.84 | 18.2% | 11.8% | 79 | -1.31 | 3.84 | 122 | 80 |
| Austin Smith R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 80 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 1.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2027
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.6 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $3M | +0.9 | $4M | +$1M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $5M | +1.1 | $10M | +$5M |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $8M | +1.1 | $10M | +$2M |
| Totals | $16M | $27M | +$11M | ||