José Alvarado

P Philadelphia Phillies

Age 32 LHP 6'2" / 245 lbs MLB peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	29	MLBPHI	66	62	4.09	3.64	24.4%	10.5%	0.7
2025	30	MIX2 levels	33	31	3.19	3.52	26.7%	8.1%	0.4	K 28.1% · BB 6.1% · FIP 3.30
2026	31	MLBPHI	68	58	5.86	3.20	25.6%	9.9%	0.9
2027PROJ	32	MLBPHI	53	56	4.02	3.74	26.9%	9.3%	0.5
2028PROJ	33	MLBPHI	40	42	4.02	4.02	26.1%	9.8%	0.3
2029PROJ	34	MLBPHI	30	31	4.20	4.32	25.2%	10.3%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo88

K%68

xwOBA vs50

Form5.89 ERA (proj 4.02) · K 19.5% (proj 26.9%) · BB 18.4% (proj 9.3%) ▼▼ last 90d · 18 IP through Oct 27

CompsHideki Okajima (age 32) · Pedro Feliciano (age 32) · Raul Valdes (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8897vR 105

ERA4.02

FIP3.74

K%26.9%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%17.6%

Proj IP56

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8897.2

Whiff%

p6127.0%

p6825.6%

xwOBA vs

p500.312

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	20	ROK MLE	Princeton Rays	5	5	17	81	18	13	1	100%	3.4	15.1%	20.1%	-5.0%	1.7%	9.53	5.31	—
2015	20	ROK RAW	Princeton Rays	5	5	17	81	18	13	1	100%	3.4	22.2%	16.0%	6.2%	1.2%	9.53	4.04	—
2016	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	71	312	85	54	1	0%	1.9	20.7%	20.1%	0.6%	0.4%	3.06	4.09	—
2016	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	71	312	85	54	1	0%	1.9	27.2%	17.3%	9.9%	0.3%	3.06	3.17	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	60	0	59	246	69	25	3	0%	1.0	25.4%	10.1%	15.3%	1.0%	3.49	2.79	+1.2
2017	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	60	0	59	246	69	25	3	0%	1.0	28.0%	10.2%	17.9%	1.2%	3.49	2.70	+1.3
2018	23	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	70	0	64	263	80	25	1	0%	0.9	30.4%	9.5%	20.9%	0.4%	2.39	1.95	+2.0
2018	23	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	70	0	64	263	80	25	1	0%	0.9	30.4%	9.5%	20.9%	0.4%	2.39	1.98	+2.0
2019	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	2	34	161	42	26	3	5%	0.8	26.7%	16.4%	10.3%	1.4%	4.54	3.70	+0.3
2019	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	2	34	161	42	26	3	5%	0.8	26.1%	16.1%	9.9%	1.9%	4.54	4.08	+0.2
2020	25	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	9	0	9	45	13	6	2	0%	1.0	28.9%	13.3%	15.6%	4.4%	6.00	4.79	-0.0
2020	25	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	9	0	9	45	13	6	2	0%	1.0	28.9%	13.3%	15.6%	4.4%	6.00	5.10	-0.1
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	1	57	256	69	43	5	2%	0.9	27.1%	16.7%	10.4%	1.9%	4.13	3.95	+0.4
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	65	1	57	256	69	43	5	2%	0.9	27.0%	16.8%	10.2%	2.0%	4.13	4.09	+0.3
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	55	227	86	21	2	0%	0.9	37.9%	9.3%	28.5%	0.9%	2.95	1.57	+2.0
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	63	0	55	227	86	21	2	0%	0.9	37.9%	9.3%	28.6%	0.9%	2.95	1.59	+2.0
2023	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	46	0	45	191	68	18	3	0%	1.0	37.2%	9.9%	27.3%	1.6%	1.99	2.10	+1.3
2023	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	46	0	45	191	68	18	3	0%	1.0	35.6%	9.4%	26.2%	1.6%	1.99	2.15	+1.3
2024	29	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	66	0	62	258	63	27	6	0%	0.9	24.4%	10.5%	14.0%	2.2%	4.09	3.55	+0.7
2024	29	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	66	0	62	258	63	27	6	0%	0.9	24.4%	10.5%	14.0%	2.2%	4.09	3.55	+0.7
2024	29	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	66	0	62	258	63	27	6	0%	0.9	24.4%	10.5%	14.0%	2.3%	4.09	3.64	+0.7
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	31	135	36	11	4	0%	0.9	28.1%	6.1%	21.9%	3.3%	3.19	3.30	+0.5
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	31	135	36	11	4	0%	0.9	28.1%	6.1%	21.9%	3.3%	3.19	3.30	+0.5
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	31	135	36	11	4	0%	0.9	26.7%	8.1%	18.5%	3.0%	3.19	3.52	+0.4
2026	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	68	0	58	273	70	27	5	0%	0.9	25.6%	9.9%	15.8%	1.7%	5.86	3.12	+1.0
2026	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	68	0	58	273	70	27	5	0%	0.9	25.6%	9.9%	15.8%	1.7%	5.86	3.12	+1.0
2026	31	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	68	0	58	273	70	27	5	0%	0.9	25.6%	9.9%	15.8%	1.8%	5.86	3.20	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			476	1	427	1859	539	203	31	0%	0.9	29.0%	10.9%	18.1%	1.7%	3.80	2.95	+8.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	PHI	53	0	56	236	64	22	6	0%	1.1	26.9%	9.3%	17.6%	2.5%	4.02	3.74	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	PHI	40	0	42	179	47	18	5	0%	1.1	26.1%	9.8%	16.3%	2.7%	4.02	4.02	+0.3
2029	34	MLB MLE	PHI	29	0	31	129	33	13	4	0%	1.1	25.2%	10.3%	14.9%	3.0%	4.20	4.32	+0.1
2030	35	MLB MLE	PHI	19	0	20	85	21	9	3	0%	1.1	24.2%	10.8%	13.4%	3.4%	4.48	4.66	-0.0
2028	33	MLB CTX	PHI	40	0	42	177	46	17	5	0%	1.1	26.1%	9.8%	16.3%	2.7%	4.02	4.02	+0.3
2029	34	MLB CTX	PHI	30	0	31	131	33	13	4	0%	1.0	25.2%	10.3%	14.9%	3.0%	4.20	4.32	+0.1
2030	35	MLB CTX	PHI	19	0	20	84	20	9	3	0%	1.1	24.2%	10.8%	13.4%	3.4%	4.48	4.66	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		565	1	520	2253	639	243	43	0%	0.9	28.4%	10.8%	17.6%	1.9%	3.87	3.11	+8.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		217	0	200	867	246	93	17	0%	0.9	28.4%	10.8%	17.6%	1.9%	3.87	3.11	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		562	8	562	2448	672	306	35	1%	1.0	27.5%	12.5%	15.0%	1.4%	3.78	3.15	+8.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		200	3	200	872	239	109	12	1%	1.0	27.5%	12.5%	15.0%	1.4%	3.78	3.15	+3.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 5 IPFIP 3.90 → 3.89 (−0.02)K% 19.0% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.05%	—	×0.860	16.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.05%	—	×0.900	17.14%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.947	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 3.90 → 3.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAADurham Bulls · 18 IPFIP 2.94 → 3.40 (+0.45)K% 32.1% → 28.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.10%	—	×0.880	28.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.81%	—	×1.050	15.56%
HR / BF /BF	1.23%	÷1.049	×1.100	1.30%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 2.94 → 3.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 11 IPFIP 3.10 → 4.03 (+0.93)K% 33.3% → 27.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.810	27.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.90%	—	×1.100	13.10%
HR / BF /BF	2.38%	÷1.008	×1.200	2.83%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 4.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs · 46 IPFIP 3.54 → 4.37 (+0.83)K% 24.2% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.17%	—	×0.770	18.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.54%	—	×1.150	20.17%
HR / BF /BF	0.47%	÷1.142	×1.250	0.52%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 128).

Result: FIP 3.54 → 4.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 ABowling Green Hot Rods · 25 IPFIP 2.39 → 3.51 (+1.12)K% 33.7% → 24.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.66%	—	×0.740	24.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.83%	—	×1.180	19.86%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.028	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 106).

Result: FIP 2.39 → 3.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 ROKPrinceton Rays · 17 IPFIP 3.93 → 5.31 (+1.38)K% 22.2% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.22%	—	×0.680	15.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.05%	—	×1.250	20.06%
HR / BF /BF	1.23%	÷1.000	×1.400	1.73%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.93 → 5.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
José Alvarado (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.74	26.9%	9.3%	2.5%	—	4.26	25.4%	15.2%	93	+0.52	—	—	—
Hideki Okajima L 2008 · 3.49 FIP	32	SU	3.49	23.3%	8.5%	2.3%	.253	4.09	18.4%	11.4%	107	+0.60	3.05	238	79
Pedro Feliciano L 2009 · 3.36 FIP	32	SU	3.36	24.4%	5.8%	2.9%	.272	2.69	20.0%	11.4%	63	-0.67	2.69	378	72
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	71
George Sherrill L 2009 · 2.95 FIP	32	SU	2.95	21.6%	7.1%	1.4%	.249	3.79	19.7%	10.4%	72	+0.84	2.74	323	71
Mike Myers L 2001 · 3.22 FIP	32	SU	3.22	21.3%	10.1%	1.2%	.263	4.20	15.7%	5.5%	116	+0.98	3.22	533	71
Ricardo Rincon L 2002 · 2.80 FIP	32	SU	2.80	22.1%	4.5%	1.8%	.270	4.19	17.7%	7.4%	137	+1.39	2.72	436	68
Ryan Buchter L 2019 · 4.75 FIP	32	SU	4.75	25.3%	10.6%	4.4%	.286	5.24	22.9%	9.7%	32	+0.49	2.37	296	68
Clay Rapada L 2012 · 3.00 FIP	31	SU	3.00	24.5%	10.3%	1.2%	.273	3.84	14.3%	6.3%	44	+0.84	3.00	120	68
Juan Pablo Perez L 2013 · 3.68 FIP	34	SU	3.68	25.2%	11.5%	2.3%	.250	3.68	26.5%	11.2%	51	-0.00	1.75	104	68
Cory Luebke L 2016 · 3.88 FIP	31	SU	3.88	26.4%	9.1%	3.4%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	216	67
Anthony Gose L 2022 · 4.71 FIP	31	SU	4.71	30.4%	14.1%	4.4%	.234	4.63	23.9%	12.2%	82	-0.08	3.78	233	65
Cam Booser L 2024 · 3.11 FIP	32	SU	3.11	26.2%	8.0%	2.2%	.338	3.94	27.0%	19.2%	107	+0.83	2.76	314	65
Heriberto Ruelas L 2015 · 2.95 FIP	33	SU	2.95	19.1%	7.3%	1.0%	.352	3.57	16.2%	8.5%	89	+0.62	2.95	117	64
Doug Creek L 2001 · 4.48 FIP	32	SU	4.48	23.7%	15.8%	2.5%	.272	4.99	20.3%	7.6%	69	+0.51	4.48	277	64
Zach Phillips L 2019 · 3.67 FIP	32	SU	3.67	19.1%	8.5%	2.0%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	2.33	202	64
Randy Flores L 2007 · 2.72 FIP	32	SU	2.72	18.6%	5.9%	0.8%	.365	4.78	16.1%	6.0%	69	+2.06	2.51	250	63
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	62
Kelly Wunsch L 2003 · 3.36 FIP	31	SU	3.36	20.6%	13.1%	0.6%	.152	3.82	21.0%	9.6%	24	+0.46	3.36	175	62
Yorkis Perez L 2000 · 4.85 FIP	32	SU	4.85	18.9%	10.8%	3.6%	.284	4.54	20.8%	10.0%	27	-0.31	3.18	269	61
Jack Taschner L 2010 · 4.74 FIP	32	SU	4.74	18.1%	11.7%	3.1%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	189	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	44	28.2%	11.6%	0.76	3.88
Jake Diekman ('24)	3.0	50	28.7%	13.4%	0.79	3.91
John Axford ('21)	2.6	58	25.6%	11.3%	0.86	3.90
Justin Wilson ('25)	2.8	56	25.9%	10.2%	0.82	3.59
Tippy Martinez ('74-'88, 9 WAR*)	4.2	76	27.7%*	12.0%*	0.77*	3.82*
Randy Myers ('85-'98, 16 WAR*)	4.4	74	29.4%*	10.4%*	0.92*	3.47*
Norm Charlton ('88-'01, 10 WAR*)	4.5	75	26.3%*	10.3%*	0.87*	3.83*