José Alvarado — OGILVIE

José Alvarado P Philadelphia Phillies

Age 31 LHP 6'2" / 245 lbs MLB peak 0.5 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION53 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8290vR 98

ERA3.41

FIP3.37

K%27.7%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%18.9%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD5555

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8897.2

Whiff%

p7028.5%

p7526.9%

xwOBA vs

p590.303

SI (63%)

CU (3%)

SL-1.4 (32%)

FB-2.1 (65%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	20	ROK MLE	Princeton Rays	5	5	17	81	18	13	1	100%	3.4	15.1%	20.1%	-5.0%	1.7%	9.53	5.31	—
2015	20	ROK RAW	Princeton Rays	5	5	17	81	18	13	1	100%	3.4	22.2%	16.0%	6.2%	1.2%	9.53	4.04	—
2016	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	71	312	85	54	1	0%	1.9	20.7%	20.1%	0.6%	0.4%	3.06	4.09	—
2016	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	71	312	85	54	1	0%	1.9	27.2%	17.3%	9.9%	0.3%	3.06	3.17	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	60	0	59	246	69	25	3	0%	1.0	25.4%	10.1%	15.3%	1.0%	3.49	2.79	+1.2
2017	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	60	0	59	246	69	25	3	0%	1.0	28.0%	10.2%	17.9%	1.2%	3.49	2.70	+1.3
2018	23	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	70	0	64	263	80	25	1	0%	0.9	30.4%	9.5%	20.9%	0.4%	2.39	1.95	+2.0
2018	23	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	70	0	64	263	80	25	1	0%	0.9	30.4%	9.5%	20.9%	0.4%	2.39	1.98	+2.0
2019	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	2	34	161	42	26	3	5%	0.8	26.7%	16.4%	10.3%	1.4%	4.54	3.70	+0.3
2019	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	2	34	161	42	26	3	5%	0.8	26.1%	16.1%	9.9%	1.9%	4.54	4.08	+0.2
2020	25	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	9	0	9	45	13	6	2	0%	1.0	28.9%	13.3%	15.6%	4.4%	6.00	4.79	-0.0
2020	25	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	9	0	9	45	13	6	2	0%	1.0	28.9%	13.3%	15.6%	4.4%	6.00	5.10	-0.1
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	1	57	256	69	43	5	2%	0.9	27.1%	16.7%	10.4%	1.9%	4.13	3.95	+0.4
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	65	1	57	256	69	43	5	2%	0.9	27.0%	16.8%	10.2%	2.0%	4.13	4.09	+0.3
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	55	227	86	21	2	0%	0.9	37.9%	9.3%	28.5%	0.9%	2.95	1.57	+2.0
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	63	0	55	227	86	21	2	0%	0.9	37.9%	9.3%	28.6%	0.9%	2.95	1.59	+2.0
2023	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	46	0	45	191	68	18	3	0%	1.0	37.2%	9.9%	27.3%	1.6%	1.99	2.10	+1.3
2023	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	46	0	45	191	68	18	3	0%	1.0	37.2%	9.9%	27.3%	1.6%	1.99	2.10	+1.3
2023	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	46	0	45	191	68	18	3	0%	1.0	35.6%	9.4%	26.2%	1.6%	1.99	2.15	+1.3
2024	29	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	66	0	62	258	63	27	6	0%	0.9	24.4%	10.5%	14.0%	2.2%	4.09	3.55	+0.7
2024	29	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	66	0	62	258	63	27	6	0%	0.9	24.4%	10.5%	14.0%	2.2%	4.09	3.55	+0.7
2024	29	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	66	0	62	258	63	27	6	0%	0.9	24.4%	10.5%	14.0%	2.3%	4.09	3.64	+0.7
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	31	135	36	11	4	0%	0.9	28.1%	6.1%	21.9%	3.3%	3.19	3.30	+0.5
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	31	135	36	11	4	0%	0.9	28.1%	6.1%	21.9%	3.3%	3.19	3.30	+0.5
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	31	135	36	11	4	0%	0.9	26.7%	8.1%	18.5%	3.0%	3.19	3.52	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			469	1	422	1831	535	198	31	0%	0.9	29.2%	10.8%	18.4%	1.7%	3.69	2.93	+8.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	61	0	53	245	66	22	5	0%	0.9	26.9%	9.0%	18.0%	1.9%	5.23	3.01	+1.0
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	61	0	53	245	66	22	5	0%	0.9	26.9%	9.0%	18.0%	1.9%	5.23	3.01	+1.0
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	MLB RAW	PHI	61	0	53	245	66	22	5	0%	0.9	26.9%	9.0%	18.0%	2.0%	5.23	3.08	+0.9
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	PHI	61	0	53	245	66	22	5	0%	0.9	26.9%	9.0%	18.0%	2.0%	5.23	3.08	+0.9
ROS	31	MLB MLE	PHI	4	0	5	19	5	2	1	0%	1.1	27.7%	8.8%	18.9%	2.7%	3.41	3.37	+0.1
ROS	31	MLB CTX	PHI	5	0	5	21	6	2	1	0%	1.0	27.7%	8.8%	18.9%	2.7%	3.41	3.37	+0.1
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	PHI	—	—	58	264	71	24	6	—	—	27.0%	9.0%	18.0%	2.1%	5.09	3.04	+1.1
FULL	31	MLB A+C	PHI	—	—	58	244	71	24	6	—	—	29.2%	9.7%	19.5%	2.3%	5.09	3.10	+1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	PHI	47	0	50	209	57	19	6	0%	1.1	27.0%	9.2%	17.8%	2.8%	3.82	3.90	+0.4
2028	33	MLB MLE	PHI	43	0	46	192	50	18	6	0%	1.1	26.1%	9.6%	16.5%	3.1%	4.04	4.18	+0.2
2029	34	MLB MLE	PHI	39	0	41	175	44	18	6	0%	1.1	25.2%	10.1%	15.1%	3.4%	4.31	4.49	+0.0
2027	32	MLB CTX	PHI	48	0	50	211	57	19	6	0%	1.0	27.0%	9.2%	17.8%	2.8%	3.82	3.90	+0.4
2028	33	MLB CTX	PHI	44	0	46	194	51	19	6	0%	1.0	26.1%	9.6%	16.5%	3.1%	4.04	4.18	+0.2
2029	34	MLB CTX	PHI	39	0	41	173	44	18	6	0%	1.1	25.2%	10.1%	15.1%	3.4%	4.31	4.49	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		603	1	563	2426	691	255	49	0%	0.9	28.5%	10.5%	18.0%	2.0%	3.77	3.14	+9.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		214	0	200	862	246	91	17	0%	0.9	28.5%	10.5%	18.0%	2.0%	3.77	3.14	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		555	8	557	2420	668	301	35	1%	1.0	27.6%	12.5%	15.2%	1.4%	3.70	3.13	+8.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		199	3	200	869	240	108	13	1%	1.0	27.6%	12.5%	15.2%	1.4%	3.70	3.13	+3.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
José Alvarado (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.71	28.5%	8.6%	2.8%	—	4.17	26.2%	16.6%	136	+0.46	—	—	—
Jake Diekman L 2018 · 3.27 FIP	31	SU	3.27	27.2%	11.9%	1.7%	.312	3.41	31.7%	18.8%	144	+0.14	2.36	455	81
Justin Wilson L 2019 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	26.5%	10.8%	2.4%	.290	4.05	22.1%	12.0%	54	+0.49	2.49	420	76
Wilfredo Ledezma L 2015 · 2.58 FIP	34	SU	2.58	24.2%	9.2%	0.7%	.307	3.30	22.6%	14.3%	71	+0.72	2.58	109	72
Boone Logan L 2016 · 2.58 FIP	31	SU	2.58	30.5%	8.0%	1.9%	.207	3.74	28.5%	17.9%	32	+1.16	2.58	113	72
Brian Moran L 2019 · 3.40 FIP	30	SU	3.40	26.9%	10.0%	2.4%	.269	2.99	25.5%	18.5%	99	-0.41	1.80	421	71
Buddy Boshers L 2019 · 3.73 FIP	31	SU	3.73	25.3%	10.4%	2.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	223	71
Josh Edgin L 2018 · 3.63 FIP	31	SU	3.63	29.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	113	70
Edward Paredes L 2018 · 3.81 FIP	31	SU	3.81	22.7%	11.9%	2.0%	.351	5.10	21.5%	14.2%	18	+1.29	2.36	130	70
Anthony Gose L 2022 · 4.71 FIP	31	SU	4.71	30.4%	14.1%	4.4%	.234	4.70	23.1%	11.3%	82	-0.01	3.85	219	68
Fernando Abad L 2017 · 3.53 FIP	31	SU	3.53	20.3%	7.1%	2.2%	.281	2.37	23.3%	21.0%	44	-1.16	2.37	306	68
Mike Dunn L 2016 · 3.71 FIP	31	SU	3.71	21.6%	6.2%	3.0%	.311	4.63	22.4%	8.9%	85	+0.92	3.71	181	68
Jake McGee L 2018 · 4.33 FIP	31	SU	4.33	20.7%	6.6%	3.9%	.316	3.59	25.6%	21.2%	121	-0.74	1.39	350	67
Colt Hynes L 2016 · 3.55 FIP	31	SU	3.55	22.3%	4.8%	3.1%	.353	3.75	14.1%	9.5%	56	+0.20	3.42	152	67
Jeremy Bleich L 2018 · 3.69 FIP	31	SU	3.69	20.3%	6.6%	2.7%	.296	4.41	20.1%	13.1%	33	+0.72	3.20	241	67
Ryan Buchter L 2018 · 3.54 FIP	31	SU	3.54	25.2%	8.6%	2.7%	.269	4.95	24.3%	12.6%	78	+1.41	2.37	296	66
Aaron Loup L 2018 · 3.16 FIP	30	SU	3.16	24.0%	7.7%	2.0%	.364	2.50	25.1%	18.8%	82	-0.66	2.07	363	66
Sam Freeman L 2018 · 3.35 FIP	31	SU	3.35	26.9%	13.9%	1.4%	.304	5.60	16.8%	5.5%	59	+2.25	3.03	299	66
Tony Sipp L 2015 · 2.80 FIP	32	SU	2.80	28.7%	6.5%	2.4%	.267	4.45	23.8%	15.0%	120	+1.65	2.22	195	65
Heriberto Ruelas L 2015 · 2.95 FIP	33	SU	2.95	19.1%	7.3%	1.0%	.352	3.57	16.2%	8.5%	89	+0.62	2.95	117	64
Tony Watson L 2016 · 4.37 FIP	31	SU	4.37	21.3%	7.0%	4.0%	.227	3.43	21.4%	16.9%	187	-0.94	2.21	405	64

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	48	26.8%	9.3%	1.16	3.96
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Diego Castillo ('22)	1.3	52	28.1%	8.9%	1.07	3.12
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84