José Alvarado
P
Philadelphia Phillies
Age 31
LHP
6'2" / 245 lbs
MLB
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION33 act + 21 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7685vR 94
ERA3.20
FIP3.17
K%28.8%
BB%8.3%
K-BB%20.5%
ROS IP21
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9097.6
Whiff%
p8130.2%
K%
p8829.2%
xwOBA vs
p620.300
SI (63%)
CU (2%)
SL-1.4 (34%)
FB-2.1 (64%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | ROK | Princeton Rays | 5 | 5 | 17 | 81 | 18 | 13 | 1 | 100% | 3.4 | 15.1% | 20.1% | -5.0% | 1.7% | 9.53 | 5.31 | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK | Princeton Rays | 5 | 5 | 17 | 81 | 18 | 13 | 1 | 100% | 3.4 | 22.2% | 16.0% | 6.2% | 1.2% | 9.53 | 4.04 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 71 | 312 | 85 | 54 | 1 | 0% | 1.9 | 20.7% | 20.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 3.06 | 4.07 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 71 | 312 | 85 | 54 | 1 | 0% | 1.9 | 27.2% | 17.3% | 9.9% | 0.3% | 3.06 | 3.17 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 60 | 0 | 59 | 246 | 69 | 25 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.4% | 10.1% | 15.3% | 1.0% | 3.49 | 2.79 | +1.2 |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 60 | 0 | 59 | 246 | 69 | 25 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.0% | 10.2% | 17.9% | 1.2% | 3.49 | 2.70 | +1.3 |
| 2018 | 23 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 70 | 0 | 64 | 263 | 80 | 25 | 1 | 0% | 0.9 | 30.4% | 9.5% | 20.9% | 0.4% | 2.39 | 1.96 | +2.0 |
| 2018 | 23 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 70 | 0 | 64 | 263 | 80 | 25 | 1 | 0% | 0.9 | 30.4% | 9.5% | 20.9% | 0.4% | 2.39 | 1.98 | +2.0 |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 2 | 34 | 161 | 42 | 26 | 3 | 5% | 0.8 | 26.7% | 16.4% | 10.3% | 1.4% | 4.54 | 3.72 | +0.3 |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 2 | 34 | 161 | 42 | 26 | 3 | 5% | 0.8 | 26.1% | 16.1% | 9.9% | 1.9% | 4.54 | 4.08 | +0.2 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 9 | 0 | 9 | 45 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.9% | 13.3% | 15.6% | 4.4% | 6.00 | 4.79 | -0.0 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 9 | 0 | 9 | 45 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.9% | 13.3% | 15.6% | 4.4% | 6.00 | 5.10 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 65 | 1 | 57 | 256 | 69 | 43 | 5 | 2% | 0.9 | 27.1% | 16.7% | 10.4% | 1.9% | 4.13 | 3.99 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 65 | 1 | 57 | 256 | 69 | 43 | 5 | 2% | 0.9 | 27.0% | 16.8% | 10.2% | 2.0% | 4.13 | 4.09 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 55 | 227 | 86 | 21 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 37.9% | 9.3% | 28.5% | 0.9% | 2.95 | 1.58 | +1.9 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 55 | 227 | 86 | 21 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 37.9% | 9.3% | 28.6% | 0.9% | 2.95 | 1.59 | +1.9 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 46 | 0 | 45 | 191 | 68 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 37.2% | 9.9% | 27.3% | 1.7% | 1.99 | 2.13 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 46 | 0 | 45 | 191 | 68 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 35.6% | 9.4% | 26.2% | 1.6% | 1.99 | 2.15 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 66 | 0 | 62 | 258 | 63 | 27 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.4% | 10.5% | 14.0% | 2.2% | 4.09 | 3.60 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 66 | 0 | 62 | 258 | 63 | 27 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.4% | 10.5% | 14.0% | 2.3% | 4.09 | 3.64 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 31 | 135 | 36 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 28.1% | 6.1% | 21.9% | 3.4% | 3.19 | 3.37 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 31 | 135 | 36 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.7% | 8.1% | 18.5% | 3.0% | 3.19 | 3.52 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 39 | 0 | 33 | 161 | 47 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 0.8 | 29.2% | 7.5% | 21.7% | 1.9% | 6.82 | 2.60 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | PHI | 20 | 0 | 21 | 87 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.8% | 8.3% | 20.5% | 2.6% | 3.20 | 3.17 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | PHI | 20 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.8% | 8.3% | 20.5% | 2.6% | 3.20 | 3.17 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 54 | 248 | 72 | 19 | 5 | — | — | 29.0% | 7.7% | 21.3% | 2.1% | 5.43 | 2.82 | +1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 54 | 226 | 72 | 19 | 5 | — | — | 31.8% | 8.5% | 23.3% | 2.3% | 5.43 | 2.77 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 47 | 0 | 50 | 209 | 58 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.9% | 8.6% | 19.3% | 2.9% | 3.70 | 3.79 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | PHI | 43 | 0 | 46 | 192 | 52 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.1% | 9.1% | 18.0% | 3.1% | 3.92 | 4.07 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | PHI | 39 | 0 | 41 | 175 | 46 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.2% | 9.6% | 16.6% | 3.4% | 4.19 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 59 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.9% | 8.6% | 19.3% | 2.9% | 3.70 | 3.79 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | PHI | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 53 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.1% | 9.1% | 18.0% | 3.1% | 3.92 | 4.07 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | PHI | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 45 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.2% | 9.6% | 16.6% | 3.4% | 4.19 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 597 | 1 | 558 | 2410 | 697 | 248 | 49 | 0% | 0.9 | 28.9% | 10.3% | 18.7% | 2.0% | 3.77 | 3.08 | +15.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 214 | 0 | 200 | 863 | 250 | 89 | 18 | 0% | 0.9 | 28.9% | 10.3% | 18.7% | 2.0% | 3.77 | 3.08 | +5.4 | ||
| Career | — | 533 | 8 | 536 | 2336 | 649 | 291 | 34 | 2% | 1.0 | 27.8% | 12.5% | 15.3% | 1.4% | 3.74 | 3.13 | +14.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 199 | 3 | 200 | 871 | 242 | 109 | 13 | 2% | 1.0 | 27.8% | 12.5% | 15.3% | 1.4% | 3.74 | 3.13 | +5.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| José Alvarado (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.74 | 28.4% | 8.6% | 2.9% | — | 4.06 | 27.1% | 18.0% | 136 | +0.32 | — | — | — |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.18 | 27.2% | 11.9% | 1.6% | .312 | 3.35 | 31.7% | 18.8% | 144 | +0.17 | 2.33 | 455 | 73 |
| Justin Wilson L 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.56 | 26.5% | 10.8% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.09 | 22.1% | 12.0% | 54 | +0.53 | 2.48 | 420 | 70 |
| Wilfredo Ledezma L 2029 · 2.56 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.56 | 24.2% | 9.2% | 0.6% | .307 | 3.34 | 22.6% | 14.3% | 71 | +0.78 | 2.56 | 109 | 70 |
| Brian Moran L 2025 · 3.29 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.29 | 26.9% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .269 | 3.00 | 25.5% | 18.5% | 99 | -0.29 | 1.67 | 421 | 69 |
| Jared Koenig L 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.14 | 25.4% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.86 | 455 | 69 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.36 | 29.2% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 113 | 69 |
| Anthony Gose L 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.72 | 30.4% | 14.1% | 4.4% | .234 | 4.93 | 24.4% | 10.8% | 82 | +0.21 | 3.88 | 207 | 67 |
| Colt Hynes L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.85 | 22.3% | 4.8% | 3.7% | .353 | 3.52 | 14.1% | 9.5% | 56 | -0.33 | 3.44 | 152 | 66 |
| Tony Sipp L 2027 · 2.70 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.70 | 28.7% | 6.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 4.25 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 120 | +1.55 | 2.18 | 195 | 66 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.73 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 223 | 66 |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.79 | 22.7% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .351 | 5.19 | 21.5% | 14.2% | 18 | +1.40 | 2.29 | 130 | 66 |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.70 | 20.3% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .296 | 4.51 | 20.1% | 13.1% | 33 | +0.81 | 3.21 | 241 | 64 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.72 | 21.6% | 6.2% | 3.0% | .311 | 4.39 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.72 | 181 | 64 |
| Jake McGee L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 20.7% | 6.6% | 3.4% | .316 | 3.48 | 25.6% | 21.2% | 121 | -0.56 | 1.52 | 350 | 63 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.47 | 25.2% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .269 | 4.81 | 24.3% | 12.6% | 78 | +1.34 | 2.37 | 296 | 62 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.48 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 2.2% | .281 | 2.35 | 23.3% | 21.0% | 44 | -1.13 | 2.35 | 306 | 62 |
| Oliver Pérez L 2028 · 2.78 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.78 | 27.9% | 7.1% | 2.1% | .304 | 2.62 | 28.3% | 21.7% | 119 | -0.16 | 1.56 | 219 | 62 |
| Aaron Loup L 2025 · 3.20 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.20 | 24.0% | 7.7% | 2.1% | .364 | 2.51 | 25.1% | 18.8% | 82 | -0.69 | 2.07 | 363 | 62 |
| Heriberto Ruelas L 2028 · 3.05 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.05 | 19.1% | 7.3% | 1.2% | .352 | 3.71 | 16.2% | 8.5% | 89 | +0.66 | 3.05 | 117 | 61 |
| Sam Freeman L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.35 | 26.9% | 13.9% | 1.4% | .304 | 5.70 | 16.8% | 5.5% | 59 | +2.35 | 3.03 | 299 | 61 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 48 | 27.5% | 9.0% | 1.18 | 3.88 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Diego Castillo ('22) | 5 | 52 | 28.1% | 8.9% | 1.07 | 3.12 |
| Joe Jiménez ('24) | 7 | 53 | 29.8% | 8.6% | 1.11 | 4.06 |