José Alvarado
P
Philadelphia Phillies
+0.5
WAR
Age 31
LHP
6'2" / 245 lbs
MLB
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA3.65
FIP3.90
xFIP4.00
SIERA3.49
K%26.1%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%17.3%
IP34
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
STUF5555
CTRL4545
CMD5555
K†6565
FB Velo
p9099.4
Whiff%
p4324.3%
K%
p8228.1%
xwOBA vs
p650.297
SI (65%)
CU (1%)
SL-1.4 (32%)
FB-2.1 (67%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | ROK | Princeton Rays | 5 | 5 | 17 | 81 | 18 | 13 | 1 | 15.1% | 20.1% | 1.7% | 9.53 | 5.31 | -0.1 |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ | Charlotte Stone Crabs | 37 | 0 | 71 | 312 | 85 | 54 | 1 | 20.7% | 20.1% | 0.3% | 3.06 | 4.09 | +0.8 |
| 2017 | 22 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 60 | 0 | 59 | 246 | 69 | 25 | 3 | 25.4% | 10.1% | 1.0% | 3.49 | 2.79 | +1.5 |
| 2018 | 23 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 70 | 0 | 64 | 263 | 80 | 25 | 1 | 30.4% | 9.5% | 0.4% | 2.39 | 1.97 | +2.2 |
| 2019 | 24 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 40 | 2 | 34 | 161 | 42 | 26 | 3 | 26.7% | 16.4% | 1.4% | 4.54 | 3.70 | +0.5 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 9 | 0 | 9 | 45 | 13 | 6 | 2 | — | — | — | 6.00 | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 65 | 1 | 57 | 256 | 69 | 43 | 5 | 27.1% | 16.7% | 1.9% | 4.13 | 4.00 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 63 | 0 | 55 | 227 | 86 | 21 | 2 | 37.9% | 9.3% | 0.9% | 2.95 | 1.59 | +2.1 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 46 | 0 | 45 | 191 | 68 | 18 | 3 | 37.2% | 9.9% | 1.6% | 1.99 | 2.09 | +1.5 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 66 | 0 | 62 | 258 | 63 | 27 | 6 | 24.4% | 10.5% | 2.1% | 4.09 | 3.52 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 33 | 0 | 31 | 135 | 36 | 11 | 4 | 28.1% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 3.19 | 3.25 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 9 | 0 | 6 | 31 | 8 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 10.50 | — | — |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | PHI | 28 | — | 28 | 120 | 35 | 11 | 3 | 28.8% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 3.59 | 3.69 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 31 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 34 | 151 | 43 | 14 | 3 | 28.2% | 9.0% | 2.2% | 4.80 | 3.05 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 33 | — | 33 | 139 | 39 | 13 | 4 | 27.8% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 3.67 | 3.76 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | PHI | 32 | — | 32 | 133 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 27.1% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 3.80 | 3.88 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | PHI | 30 | — | 30 | 126 | 33 | 12 | 4 | 26.4% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 3.93 | 4.02 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 503 | 8 | 509 | 2206 | 610 | 282 | 30 | 27.7% | 12.8% | 1.4% | 3.62 | 3.14 | +12.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 198 | 3 | 200 | 866 | 240 | 111 | 12 | 27.7% | 12.8% | 1.4% | 3.62 | 3.14 | +4.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| José Alvarado (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.69 | 28.8% | 8.8% | 2.8% | — | 3.88 | 27.1% | 18.0% | 94 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Wilfredo Ledezma L 2029 · 2.57 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.57 | 24.2% | 9.2% | 0.6% | .307 | 3.31 | 22.6% | 14.3% | 71 | +0.74 | 2.57 | 109 | 73 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.27 | 27.2% | 11.9% | 1.7% | .312 | 3.37 | 31.7% | 18.8% | 144 | +0.10 | 2.32 | 455 | 73 |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.80 | 22.7% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .351 | 5.13 | 21.5% | 14.2% | 18 | +1.33 | 2.37 | 130 | 72 |
| Justin Wilson L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.49 | 26.5% | 10.8% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.06 | 22.1% | 12.0% | 54 | +0.57 | 2.43 | 420 | 72 |
| Heriberto Ruelas L 2028 · 2.97 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.97 | 19.1% | 7.3% | 1.0% | .352 | 3.57 | 16.2% | 8.5% | 89 | +0.60 | 2.97 | 117 | 69 |
| Colt Hynes L 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.56 | 22.3% | 4.8% | 3.1% | .353 | 3.79 | 14.1% | 9.5% | 56 | +0.23 | 3.42 | 152 | 69 |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.69 | 20.3% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .296 | 4.42 | 20.1% | 13.1% | 33 | +0.73 | 3.20 | 241 | 69 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.68 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 2.5% | .281 | 2.38 | 23.3% | 21.0% | 44 | -1.30 | 2.38 | 306 | 68 |
| Brian Moran L 2025 · 3.39 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.39 | 26.9% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .269 | 2.98 | 25.5% | 18.5% | 99 | -0.41 | 1.81 | 421 | 68 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.70 | 21.6% | 6.2% | 3.0% | .311 | 4.62 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 85 | +0.92 | 3.70 | 181 | 68 |
| Phil Coke L 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.85 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.1% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.81 | 3.04 | 101 | 67 |
| Jared Koenig L 2026 · 3.00 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.00 | 25.4% | 7.1% | 2.1% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 455 | 67 |
| Boone Logan L 2026 · 2.64 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.64 | 30.5% | 8.0% | 2.0% | .207 | 3.79 | 28.5% | 17.9% | 32 | +1.15 | 2.64 | 113 | 67 |
| Jorge Ibarra L 2024 · 3.05 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.05 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 1.4% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 146 | 67 |
| Brandon Mann L 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 67 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.70 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 223 | 66 |
| Jake McGee L 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.47 | 20.7% | 6.6% | 4.2% | .316 | 3.55 | 25.6% | 21.2% | 121 | -0.92 | 1.36 | 350 | 65 |
| Luke Westphal L 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.68 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 3.4% | .321 | 4.72 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 95 | +0.04 | 2.97 | 294 | 65 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.62 | 29.2% | 9.2% | 3.3% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 113 | 65 |
| Zach Phillips L 2025 · 2.85 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.85 | 19.2% | 8.6% | 0.5% | .301 | 3.67 | 19.1% | 10.6% | 36 | +0.82 | 2.34 | 202 | 65 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.